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海天一洲
2022-08-02
$理想汽车(LI)$
到底是谁在做多?庄家很强势,但是这票显然不值这个价,让我们拭目以待
海天一洲
2022-08-02
$理想汽车(LI)$
https://m.weibo.cn/5993531560/4798064659008734
海天一洲
2022-06-09
$摩贝(MKD)$
现在的总市值,意味着马上要退市吗?
海天一洲
2021-08-24
$RLX科技(RLX)$
兄弟们加把劲,拉爆空头[财迷]
海天一洲
2021-07-19
关注了一年多股票走势,有以下几点感受:宏观面:国际形势,国家政策,行业周期基本面:公司是否有不断延伸的护城河,公司经营财务指标,公司管理层,产品的市场空间和不可替代性市场先生:市场情绪,基金动向,市场规律,价值背离因为前两点与第三点总是存在背离,而又遵循价值回归,所以我认为价值投资者也需要择时入场,择时离场。或许夹头粉丝们不提倡“择时”,但我觉得具体问题具体分析,发挥人的主观能动性,到哪里都是没错的。巴菲特和芒格,夹头们奉为神灵,如果不需要具体问题具体分析,芒格和巴菲特每天看那么多资料干什么呢?做一个不断学习成长的夹头,除了具体问题具体分析,内心的平静和正直也是必备的,市场上有很多潜在巨大风险的“暴富”机会,被这些裹挟而见异思迁,也难以做到长期稳定收益。市场和宏观都具有不可预测性,投资策略的一致性可以用来平滑由此造成的风险。
海天一洲
2021-03-23
$RLX科技(RLX)$
税收最终可以逐步转移到终端消费者。从消费者的角度,不会因为每个月增加几十元消费而放弃电子烟,毕竟电子烟的方便,时尚,以及科技认同感远超每个月几十元的支出增加。从消费群体来看,电子烟的消费群体也并非是价格敏感的消费群体,现在RLEX市场价格相比传统香烟还是要便宜不少,所以即便涨价也不会影响性价比。更何况工信部的法规意见出台,也正好是靴子落地,利空出尽。以上是我认为市场过度反应的逻辑,也是我昨天坚定建仓RLX的原因。立贴为证,迭代逻辑思路!
海天一洲
2021-03-02
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@Iverson:【财报前瞻】:东南亚“小腾讯”能否续写增长神话?
海天一洲
2021-01-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@投资视野:2021年了,牛年股民肯定希望能盼来牛市,我也不例外。不知道
$易恒健康(MOHO)$
$云集(YJ)$
$宝尊电商(BZUN)$
这种低估值公司在牛年能来一波行情吗?
海天一洲
2020-11-09
$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$
新浪财经的报价系统中,盘前已经3.04了,老虎怎么回事?
海天一洲
2020-10-16
一觉起来,发生了什么?请高手指点[财迷]
海天一洲
2020-10-15
这么“工程”的回应,如何与“以用户为中心”的文化对齐呢?
$理想汽车(LI)$
海天一洲
2020-10-09
$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$
如果今天收个十字星,下周会涨的更好
海天一洲
2020-10-08
$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$
不可思议啊[开心]
海天一洲
2020-10-01
$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$
派息0.05,远超0.02预期,起飞[强]
海天一洲
2020-09-18
$箩筐技术(LKCO)$
根据1美元以下连续90天退市的规则,国庆节前要退市吗?或者国庆节前要拉到一块以上
海天一洲
2020-09-03
$箩筐技术(LKCO)$
从基本面看挺不错的一家公司,业务布局很全面。高精地图,时空大数据一系列概念,就是盈利不佳。科技公司先烧点钱很正常,为啥就要跌的这么惨?
海天一洲
2020-09-02
$ReWalk Robotics(RWLK)$
赫兹还有一块四毛多,你怎么能跌成这个样子😄
海天一洲
2020-09-02
$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$
到底在跌什么跌?
海天一洲
2020-09-02
$ReWalk Robotics(RWLK)$
什么时候才能Rewalk啊😱
海天一洲
2020-08-18
对于造车新势力,研发从无到有,研发效率也是在不断迭代过程中的,不能单纯的看研发费用下降就是减少研发。对于一家负责任的车企,减少成本是一个贯穿始终的课题
李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$兄弟们加把劲,拉爆空头[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834497684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173893707,"gmtCreate":1626651545109,"gmtModify":1626651545109,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关注了一年多股票走势,有以下几点感受:宏观面:国际形势,国家政策,行业周期基本面:公司是否有不断延伸的护城河,公司经营财务指标,公司管理层,产品的市场空间和不可替代性市场先生:市场情绪,基金动向,市场规律,价值背离因为前两点与第三点总是存在背离,而又遵循价值回归,所以我认为价值投资者也需要择时入场,择时离场。或许夹头粉丝们不提倡“择时”,但我觉得具体问题具体分析,发挥人的主观能动性,到哪里都是没错的。巴菲特和芒格,夹头们奉为神灵,如果不需要具体问题具体分析,芒格和巴菲特每天看那么多资料干什么呢?做一个不断学习成长的夹头,除了具体问题具体分析,内心的平静和正直也是必备的,市场上有很多潜在巨大风险的“暴富”机会,被这些裹挟而见异思迁,也难以做到长期稳定收益。市场和宏观都具有不可预测性,投资策略的一致性可以用来平滑由此造成的风险。","listText":"关注了一年多股票走势,有以下几点感受:宏观面:国际形势,国家政策,行业周期基本面:公司是否有不断延伸的护城河,公司经营财务指标,公司管理层,产品的市场空间和不可替代性市场先生:市场情绪,基金动向,市场规律,价值背离因为前两点与第三点总是存在背离,而又遵循价值回归,所以我认为价值投资者也需要择时入场,择时离场。或许夹头粉丝们不提倡“择时”,但我觉得具体问题具体分析,发挥人的主观能动性,到哪里都是没错的。巴菲特和芒格,夹头们奉为神灵,如果不需要具体问题具体分析,芒格和巴菲特每天看那么多资料干什么呢?做一个不断学习成长的夹头,除了具体问题具体分析,内心的平静和正直也是必备的,市场上有很多潜在巨大风险的“暴富”机会,被这些裹挟而见异思迁,也难以做到长期稳定收益。市场和宏观都具有不可预测性,投资策略的一致性可以用来平滑由此造成的风险。","text":"关注了一年多股票走势,有以下几点感受:宏观面:国际形势,国家政策,行业周期基本面:公司是否有不断延伸的护城河,公司经营财务指标,公司管理层,产品的市场空间和不可替代性市场先生:市场情绪,基金动向,市场规律,价值背离因为前两点与第三点总是存在背离,而又遵循价值回归,所以我认为价值投资者也需要择时入场,择时离场。或许夹头粉丝们不提倡“择时”,但我觉得具体问题具体分析,发挥人的主观能动性,到哪里都是没错的。巴菲特和芒格,夹头们奉为神灵,如果不需要具体问题具体分析,芒格和巴菲特每天看那么多资料干什么呢?做一个不断学习成长的夹头,除了具体问题具体分析,内心的平静和正直也是必备的,市场上有很多潜在巨大风险的“暴富”机会,被这些裹挟而见异思迁,也难以做到长期稳定收益。市场和宏观都具有不可预测性,投资策略的一致性可以用来平滑由此造成的风险。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec378eff586e60de188b0fb1c244087","width":"640","height":"444"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173893707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353893370,"gmtCreate":1616476754290,"gmtModify":1616476754290,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>税收最终可以逐步转移到终端消费者。从消费者的角度,不会因为每个月增加几十元消费而放弃电子烟,毕竟电子烟的方便,时尚,以及科技认同感远超每个月几十元的支出增加。从消费群体来看,电子烟的消费群体也并非是价格敏感的消费群体,现在RLEX市场价格相比传统香烟还是要便宜不少,所以即便涨价也不会影响性价比。更何况工信部的法规意见出台,也正好是靴子落地,利空出尽。以上是我认为市场过度反应的逻辑,也是我昨天坚定建仓RLX的原因。立贴为证,迭代逻辑思路!","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$税收最终可以逐步转移到终端消费者。从消费者的角度,不会因为每个月增加几十元消费而放弃电子烟,毕竟电子烟的方便,时尚,以及科技认同感远超每个月几十元的支出增加。从消费群体来看,电子烟的消费群体也并非是价格敏感的消费群体,现在RLEX市场价格相比传统香烟还是要便宜不少,所以即便涨价也不会影响性价比。更何况工信部的法规意见出台,也正好是靴子落地,利空出尽。以上是我认为市场过度反应的逻辑,也是我昨天坚定建仓RLX的原因。立贴为证,迭代逻辑思路!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353893370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365987180,"gmtCreate":1614690126540,"gmtModify":1703479898385,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365987180","repostId":"362019405","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":362019405,"gmtCreate":1614572542803,"gmtModify":1703478341902,"author":{"id":"3455059019369891","authorId":"3455059019369891","name":"Iverson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fa68ce61d88742ab3622a5f7f8d6ff9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3455059019369891","authorIdStr":"3455059019369891"},"themes":[],"title":"【财报前瞻】:东南亚“小腾讯”能否续写增长神话?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 将在3月2日周二盘前公布四季度及全年业绩,市场预计Q4营收同比增长106.4%,调整后的EBITDA为正1.107亿美元。公司持续受益于东南亚人口红利和第二波疫情正面影响,三个业务部门游戏、电商和金融服务保持强劲增长。 Free Fire持续火爆 预计游戏部门Garena将在第四季度继续保持强劲,主要得益于Free Fire的人气持续增长。根据Sensor Tower的数据,Free Fire在第四季度的月收入逐月增长,并在2020年12月达到新高。这主要是由于:1)玩家基础持续扩大,特别是来自印度(主要竞争对手PUBG自2020年9月已经被禁);2)电竞赛事提升用户参与度;3)名人代言提高影响力,2020年12月,C罗纳尔多被任命为Free Fire的全球品牌大使。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 主要运营指标向好。根据Sensor Tower和Sportskeeda的数据,Free Fire是全球下载量第二大的手机app,2020年的下载总量为2.662亿次,与2019年持平。根据app Annie的数据,第四季度,Free Fire是巴西、印度和印度尼西亚等市场营收最高的手机游戏。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 因此,在东南亚,Free Fire很可能成为一款生命周期较长的游戏,因为它能够通过活动和电竞比赛持续吸引玩家。数据显示,2020年手机游戏的电竞表赛人气增长强劲,Free Fire赛事观看人数与其他热门游戏相比排名依然靠前。我们认为电竞比赛有助于更高的用户参与度,并推动盈利。 图片来源:CGSCIMB Shopee:巩固电商领先地位 疫情在四季度尚未结束,东南亚封锁将继续推动该地区电商的发展,向线上转化的趋势不变。预计本季度电商收入增长","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 将在3月2日周二盘前公布四季度及全年业绩,市场预计Q4营收同比增长106.4%,调整后的EBITDA为正1.107亿美元。公司持续受益于东南亚人口红利和第二波疫情正面影响,三个业务部门游戏、电商和金融服务保持强劲增长。 Free Fire持续火爆 预计游戏部门Garena将在第四季度继续保持强劲,主要得益于Free Fire的人气持续增长。根据Sensor Tower的数据,Free Fire在第四季度的月收入逐月增长,并在2020年12月达到新高。这主要是由于:1)玩家基础持续扩大,特别是来自印度(主要竞争对手PUBG自2020年9月已经被禁);2)电竞赛事提升用户参与度;3)名人代言提高影响力,2020年12月,C罗纳尔多被任命为Free Fire的全球品牌大使。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 主要运营指标向好。根据Sensor Tower和Sportskeeda的数据,Free Fire是全球下载量第二大的手机app,2020年的下载总量为2.662亿次,与2019年持平。根据app Annie的数据,第四季度,Free Fire是巴西、印度和印度尼西亚等市场营收最高的手机游戏。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 因此,在东南亚,Free Fire很可能成为一款生命周期较长的游戏,因为它能够通过活动和电竞比赛持续吸引玩家。数据显示,2020年手机游戏的电竞表赛人气增长强劲,Free Fire赛事观看人数与其他热门游戏相比排名依然靠前。我们认为电竞比赛有助于更高的用户参与度,并推动盈利。 图片来源:CGSCIMB Shopee:巩固电商领先地位 疫情在四季度尚未结束,东南亚封锁将继续推动该地区电商的发展,向线上转化的趋势不变。预计本季度电商收入增长","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ 将在3月2日周二盘前公布四季度及全年业绩,市场预计Q4营收同比增长106.4%,调整后的EBITDA为正1.107亿美元。公司持续受益于东南亚人口红利和第二波疫情正面影响,三个业务部门游戏、电商和金融服务保持强劲增长。 Free Fire持续火爆 预计游戏部门Garena将在第四季度继续保持强劲,主要得益于Free Fire的人气持续增长。根据Sensor Tower的数据,Free Fire在第四季度的月收入逐月增长,并在2020年12月达到新高。这主要是由于:1)玩家基础持续扩大,特别是来自印度(主要竞争对手PUBG自2020年9月已经被禁);2)电竞赛事提升用户参与度;3)名人代言提高影响力,2020年12月,C罗纳尔多被任命为Free Fire的全球品牌大使。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 主要运营指标向好。根据Sensor Tower和Sportskeeda的数据,Free Fire是全球下载量第二大的手机app,2020年的下载总量为2.662亿次,与2019年持平。根据app Annie的数据,第四季度,Free Fire是巴西、印度和印度尼西亚等市场营收最高的手机游戏。 图片来源:CGSCIMB 因此,在东南亚,Free Fire很可能成为一款生命周期较长的游戏,因为它能够通过活动和电竞比赛持续吸引玩家。数据显示,2020年手机游戏的电竞表赛人气增长强劲,Free Fire赛事观看人数与其他热门游戏相比排名依然靠前。我们认为电竞比赛有助于更高的用户参与度,并推动盈利。 图片来源:CGSCIMB Shopee:巩固电商领先地位 疫情在四季度尚未结束,东南亚封锁将继续推动该地区电商的发展,向线上转化的趋势不变。预计本季度电商收入增长","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da12e6e3a9224e3d4d7c8a0d0232543e","width":"1458","height":"561"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781dffc9587111d363c8282b3ee5a97c","width":"491","height":"335"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9367a24da07c83eeb92f9f9d87cfc54","width":"984","height":"423"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362019405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338116616,"gmtCreate":1609851742035,"gmtModify":1703740864756,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338116616","repostId":"331403750","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331403750,"gmtCreate":1609740740570,"gmtModify":1703740129193,"author":{"id":"3568773762768660","authorId":"3568773762768660","name":"投资视野","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568773762768660","authorIdStr":"3568773762768660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2021年了,牛年股民肯定希望能盼来牛市,我也不例外。不知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOHO\">$易恒健康(MOHO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">$云集(YJ)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZUN\">$宝尊电商(BZUN)$</a>这种低估值公司在牛年能来一波行情吗?","listText":"2021年了,牛年股民肯定希望能盼来牛市,我也不例外。不知道<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOHO\">$易恒健康(MOHO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">$云集(YJ)$</a><a 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10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199767469","media":"锦缎","summary":"投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。","content":"<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:</p><p>1997年IPO时投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。</p><p>长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?</p><p>蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:</p><p><b>第一, 规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?</p><p>所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二,节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?</p><p>答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3:任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat</p><p>模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环,永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头,蔚来能涨40倍?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头,在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间,它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯(Jeff Bezos),天不生杰夫·贝索斯,长期主义万古如长夜:1997年IPO时投资亚马逊,23年来2000倍回报,年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益,企业状况会越来越好;短期的选择带来短期的收益,企业状况刚开始还可以,以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上,它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降,向股东投降,最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本,即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本,最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说,蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵,从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司,研发投入不跟上,股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来,之所以短期利益变得更加重要,也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资,但这并不简单,也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议,如果完不成,蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度,从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是:没钱砍研发。2019年下半年,蔚来融资不利,现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降,2019Q3,同比+0%;2019Q4,同比-33%;2020Q1,同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资,以及六家银行百亿授信,2020Q2,同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里,蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的,“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内,我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发,大约5-6亿元/季度的投入,每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1:蔚来研发费用。来源:公司财报,锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事,这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉,从单季度营收来看,当前的蔚来(Q2收入37.2亿元)大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当,后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元(按当时6.28的汇率,折合人民币35.3亿元)。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级(单个季度三四十亿元)的2013年,四个季度研发费用分别同比下降:-19%,-31%,-10%,-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以?蔚来当然不可以,橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦,我们具体问题具体分析:当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞,四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元,经营的不确定很大。这个时期,研发费用下降无可厚非,下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢,交付量节节攀升:2019年Q4交付量为8224辆,平均89.4辆/天;中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势;2020年Q2交付量为10331辆,平均113.5辆/天;2020年Q3可能也会不错,因为除了ES6和ES8,EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了,营收上去了,研发费用却大幅降低,情况就是这么个情况,这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协,一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来,对于用户来说,未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度,蔚来迎来里程碑时刻:毛利率转正且可持续(预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利)。▲图2:蔚来毛利率变化图。来源:公司财报,锦缎。这对股东来说是好事,这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个:第一, 规模效应。这个大家都懂,规模大了,工人更熟练,学习曲线上去了,浪费减少,毛利率自然提高。但是,咱回头来看看,规模确实提高了,今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆,这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗?改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗(去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%)?如果是这样,月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高?所以我们认为,这次毛利率转正过程中,规模效应不是主要的原因。第二,节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material,物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说,“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率,我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间,例如通过节省BOM等方式,10%是可以实现的,但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间,从各方面来说都有改善机会,但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去,蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力,为了用户不惜用料,你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题,也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在,蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制,表示,“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究,实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少,实惠可能也会逐步变少,那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心,又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢?答案是:AI的故事,无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日,媒体消息:任少卿加盟蔚来,担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3:任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述:“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊!Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络,它试图拟合残差,训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone;而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术,无敌的存在。而任少卿,基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn,他是一作!”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点,这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力,任少卿加盟支撑算法,再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”,L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗?在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道,但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人,早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看,Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶,高科技感十足的专利聚类包括:▲图4:Faraday Future专利分类。来源:incopat模式识别302件;导航数据203件;位置测量误差202件;集成驱动185件;门铰链173件。最终,Faraday Future尘归尘,土归土。多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想,不应该给予折现。理智的看,自动驾驶商用化很难,技术上无法实现,法规上还未配套,可能5-10年以后情况会改观,但不是现在。但这又有什么关系呢,反正能讲的故事变多了:故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。一种循环,永不落幕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":954256244,"gmtCreate":1592955228388,"gmtModify":1704200714649,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVR\">$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$</a>到底在跌什么跌?","text":"$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$到底在跌什么跌?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971727777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944300412,"gmtCreate":1596762722236,"gmtModify":1704213504154,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"近日,21世纪经济报道记者独家获悉,《自动驾驶出租车运营规范与安全管理要求》团体标准已经立项,包括滴滴、百度、博世、北汽、腾讯、初速度等国内企业、相关监管部门、专家及政策研究机构等已经开始进行相关商讨。这也是全球首个自动驾驶的商业化规则。据了解,本次标准拟订由滴滴公司牵头。半个月前,这一团体标准已通过线上形式组织召开标准启动会。该次会议的内容包括确认robotaxi运营标准的框架和提纲,以及重点围绕测试车辆管理规范、保障性管理规范、测试驾驶员管理规范、测试中心风险分析与预案以及载人运营等标准内容展开讨论。","listText":"近日,21世纪经济报道记者独家获悉,《自动驾驶出租车运营规范与安全管理要求》团体标准已经立项,包括滴滴、百度、博世、北汽、腾讯、初速度等国内企业、相关监管部门、专家及政策研究机构等已经开始进行相关商讨。这也是全球首个自动驾驶的商业化规则。据了解,本次标准拟订由滴滴公司牵头。半个月前,这一团体标准已通过线上形式组织召开标准启动会。该次会议的内容包括确认robotaxi运营标准的框架和提纲,以及重点围绕测试车辆管理规范、保障性管理规范、测试驾驶员管理规范、测试中心风险分析与预案以及载人运营等标准内容展开讨论。","text":"近日,21世纪经济报道记者独家获悉,《自动驾驶出租车运营规范与安全管理要求》团体标准已经立项,包括滴滴、百度、博世、北汽、腾讯、初速度等国内企业、相关监管部门、专家及政策研究机构等已经开始进行相关商讨。这也是全球首个自动驾驶的商业化规则。据了解,本次标准拟订由滴滴公司牵头。半个月前,这一团体标准已通过线上形式组织召开标准启动会。该次会议的内容包括确认robotaxi运营标准的框架和提纲,以及重点围绕测试车辆管理规范、保障性管理规范、测试驾驶员管理规范、测试中心风险分析与预案以及载人运营等标准内容展开讨论。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944300412","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940976676,"gmtCreate":1593669005895,"gmtModify":1704202753912,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">$黑石(BX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVR\">$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$</a>我一直希望有一天,黑石可以灵活地为像迈克这样的企业家提供投资,抓住那些与传统私募股权模式不同的投资机会。于是我们成立了一只新基金,命名为“战略性投资机会基金”,这只基金是我长期以来寻求的投资战略平台。这条新业务线也要经过黑石惯有的三个测试:必须具有为投资人带来巨大回报的潜力、必须可以增强黑石的智力资本、必须由一个10分人才做负责人。这些新机遇带来经济回报的潜力是毋庸置疑的。至于智力资本,“战略性投资机会基金”提供了一个绝佳的机会,让我们所有人以新的方式学习和思考,从后危机时代的不寻常机会中找出新的模式。新基金的投资委员会成员涵盖了每个主要资产类别的负责人,另外还有我和托尼。我们希望利用黑石所有人的集体专业知识,认真学习这些异乎寻常、夺人耳目的交易,进行认真彻底的分析研究。至于基金的负责人,我们选择了刚刚从伦敦回到纽约的戴维.布利泽。考虑到业务的创新程度,我们需要有经验的人来提出不同寻常的创意要求,向公司内部和外部的人土推介别出心裁的交易。戴维成功打造了黑石集团的欧洲业务,最终,他把“战略性投资机会基金”发展成为一个价值270亿美元的业务板块。苏世民《我的经验与教训》","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">$黑石(BX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVR\">$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$</a>我一直希望有一天,黑石可以灵活地为像迈克这样的企业家提供投资,抓住那些与传统私募股权模式不同的投资机会。于是我们成立了一只新基金,命名为“战略性投资机会基金”,这只基金是我长期以来寻求的投资战略平台。这条新业务线也要经过黑石惯有的三个测试:必须具有为投资人带来巨大回报的潜力、必须可以增强黑石的智力资本、必须由一个10分人才做负责人。这些新机遇带来经济回报的潜力是毋庸置疑的。至于智力资本,“战略性投资机会基金”提供了一个绝佳的机会,让我们所有人以新的方式学习和思考,从后危机时代的不寻常机会中找出新的模式。新基金的投资委员会成员涵盖了每个主要资产类别的负责人,另外还有我和托尼。我们希望利用黑石所有人的集体专业知识,认真学习这些异乎寻常、夺人耳目的交易,进行认真彻底的分析研究。至于基金的负责人,我们选择了刚刚从伦敦回到纽约的戴维.布利泽。考虑到业务的创新程度,我们需要有经验的人来提出不同寻常的创意要求,向公司内部和外部的人土推介别出心裁的交易。戴维成功打造了黑石集团的欧洲业务,最终,他把“战略性投资机会基金”发展成为一个价值270亿美元的业务板块。苏世民《我的经验与教训》","text":"$黑石(BX)$$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$我一直希望有一天,黑石可以灵活地为像迈克这样的企业家提供投资,抓住那些与传统私募股权模式不同的投资机会。于是我们成立了一只新基金,命名为“战略性投资机会基金”,这只基金是我长期以来寻求的投资战略平台。这条新业务线也要经过黑石惯有的三个测试:必须具有为投资人带来巨大回报的潜力、必须可以增强黑石的智力资本、必须由一个10分人才做负责人。这些新机遇带来经济回报的潜力是毋庸置疑的。至于智力资本,“战略性投资机会基金”提供了一个绝佳的机会,让我们所有人以新的方式学习和思考,从后危机时代的不寻常机会中找出新的模式。新基金的投资委员会成员涵盖了每个主要资产类别的负责人,另外还有我和托尼。我们希望利用黑石所有人的集体专业知识,认真学习这些异乎寻常、夺人耳目的交易,进行认真彻底的分析研究。至于基金的负责人,我们选择了刚刚从伦敦回到纽约的戴维.布利泽。考虑到业务的创新程度,我们需要有经验的人来提出不同寻常的创意要求,向公司内部和外部的人土推介别出心裁的交易。戴维成功打造了黑石集团的欧洲业务,最终,他把“战略性投资机会基金”发展成为一个价值270亿美元的业务板块。苏世民《我的经验与教训》","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940976676","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685322633,"gmtCreate":1659447187526,"gmtModify":1659447300107,"author":{"id":"3483422700897254","authorId":"3483422700897254","name":"海天一洲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6bab872483c5825530fa5be113615c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483422700897254","authorIdStr":"3483422700897254"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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