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老虎认证: 量化投资人
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局外人___
02-06 16:16
$澜起科技(06809)$
手速终于快了一次哈哈
局外人___
02-05
$大族数控(03200)$
走人,2手还行,毕竟二婚股
局外人___
02-03
$国恩科技(02768)$
走人走人,二婚股这样可以了
局外人___
01-21
$龙旗科技(09611)$
走了兄弟们
局外人___
01-07
$智谱(02513)$
走了兄弟们,拜拜
局外人___
2025-12-31
$壁仞科技(06082)$
走早了,但是知足了
局外人___
2025-12-09
$宝济药业-B(02659)$
小钱,多留也无意义
局外人___
2025-12-05
$SMJ INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC.(SMJF)$
中签金额太少了,累,睡觉
局外人___
2025-11-21
$创新实业(02788)$
走人走人
局外人___
2025-11-13
$SMJ INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS INC.(SMJF)$
那几个待定的是不上了? 这美股ipo公司三部曲 1.延期 2.延期 3.突然上市或待定 [害羞] [害羞]
局外人___
2025-11-07
$乐舒适(02698)$
吃几顿饭💰
局外人___
2025-10-27
$滴普科技(01384)$
走了,还会涨应该,大家留下发财
局外人___
2025-10-24
$Ultratex Inc.(UTX)$
待定=无限期搁置=黄了=不会上市了
局外人___
2025-10-23
$APEX Global Solutions Limited(APEX)$
有点强,也和
$Papa Medical Inc(PAPA)$
一样变成待定了,这样就无限期搁置了
局外人___
2025-10-20
$聚水潭(06687)$
走人,本身金额就低,挣不了几个钱
局外人___
2025-10-08
$长风药业(02652)$
有点低,玛德
局外人___
2025-10-01
$Agroz Inc(AGRZ)$
这真的莫名其妙,昨晚就应该上市,到最后突然直接不上了,早上看还是延迟五天,突然就变成今晚上市了,至少发个短信提醒一下吧,很多人都撤销申购了
局外人___
2025-09-30
$金叶国际集团(08549)$
牛逼,65万就顶头锤😓
局外人___
2025-09-29
$博泰车联(02889)$
这是最垃圾的,我服了,不想再看一眼,暗盘跑
局外人___
2025-09-24
$奇瑞汽车(09973)$
走了走了[微笑]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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走了走了[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/647e3d145a02892629b06bfa6f005a5a","width":"1122","height":"1737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/482008418029776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":963,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825864560,"gmtCreate":1634218455837,"gmtModify":1634287146544,"author":{"id":"3479894068777241","authorId":"3479894068777241","name":"局外人___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca69accd9507306aa2ccd4828ab875d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479894068777241","idStr":"3479894068777241"},"themes":[],"title":"当所有人都认为美股到顶了","htmlText":"民主党要加税,债务上限不提升要违约,当所有人都认为美股到顶了这个风险被大众所察觉了,那这就已经称不上是风险了,真正的股灾都是在人无意识的情况下发生的,尤其是在大家都对自己操作和认知很自信的时候,那些能被意识到的风险自然也都被避免了。“人们永远也无法肯定,究竟是预期与后来的事件相一致,还是后面的事件顺应了预期,在此自然科学所强调的思想与事件之间的分离荡然无存了。”---索罗斯第一部分---抛弃天下有免费的午餐的想法,老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号早从去年开始,说美股要崩的声音就屡见不鲜。什么疫情要加剧,什么民主党要控制议会所以要对硅谷巨头FAANG加税,什么非农就业数据不好,什么中美关系有可能再度恶化,什么WSB投机导致市场投机行为猖獗,什么美联储要开始减码了,什么加息要提前了,什么美股已经涨的太高了……我觉得有7个字更能准确概括本篇文章一半想叙述的内容,那就是你要懂得区别噪音和信号。实际上,大多数情况下,市场都是噪音,黑色星期一股票下降的次数比其他几个工作日下降的多不是没道理,每当遇到周末,人们总是会在股市不开盘的那几天去阅读市场中各种所谓的“专家”言论,又或者阅读那些所谓的“有价值的信息”,阅读完毕之后内心极度恐惧,又或极度烦躁,希望立马就开盘交易,疯狂买疯狂抛。反正感觉到自己做了功课,同时又做了最正确的决策。结果是一顿操作猛如虎,一下亏了2万5。实际上,稍微动动脑筋想想,如果这些公开的免费信息有价值(即免费的午餐问题),那么至少从2个维度上看,它背后的逻辑根本站不住脚。第一个是,如果这是一个有价值的策略,那么这么多人接触到后,这个策略可能会失效。第二个是,如果这真的是一种有价值的信息(简单说就是能挣钱的信息),这些素不相识的人为什么要告诉你?所以那些喜欢在个股或者大盘底下问:“老师,这股还能涨吗?”或,“谁能说说这个财报下周是涨还是跌”这种问题的人可以考虑在现实中找任","listText":"民主党要加税,债务上限不提升要违约,当所有人都认为美股到顶了这个风险被大众所察觉了,那这就已经称不上是风险了,真正的股灾都是在人无意识的情况下发生的,尤其是在大家都对自己操作和认知很自信的时候,那些能被意识到的风险自然也都被避免了。“人们永远也无法肯定,究竟是预期与后来的事件相一致,还是后面的事件顺应了预期,在此自然科学所强调的思想与事件之间的分离荡然无存了。”---索罗斯第一部分---抛弃天下有免费的午餐的想法,老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号早从去年开始,说美股要崩的声音就屡见不鲜。什么疫情要加剧,什么民主党要控制议会所以要对硅谷巨头FAANG加税,什么非农就业数据不好,什么中美关系有可能再度恶化,什么WSB投机导致市场投机行为猖獗,什么美联储要开始减码了,什么加息要提前了,什么美股已经涨的太高了……我觉得有7个字更能准确概括本篇文章一半想叙述的内容,那就是你要懂得区别噪音和信号。实际上,大多数情况下,市场都是噪音,黑色星期一股票下降的次数比其他几个工作日下降的多不是没道理,每当遇到周末,人们总是会在股市不开盘的那几天去阅读市场中各种所谓的“专家”言论,又或者阅读那些所谓的“有价值的信息”,阅读完毕之后内心极度恐惧,又或极度烦躁,希望立马就开盘交易,疯狂买疯狂抛。反正感觉到自己做了功课,同时又做了最正确的决策。结果是一顿操作猛如虎,一下亏了2万5。实际上,稍微动动脑筋想想,如果这些公开的免费信息有价值(即免费的午餐问题),那么至少从2个维度上看,它背后的逻辑根本站不住脚。第一个是,如果这是一个有价值的策略,那么这么多人接触到后,这个策略可能会失效。第二个是,如果这真的是一种有价值的信息(简单说就是能挣钱的信息),这些素不相识的人为什么要告诉你?所以那些喜欢在个股或者大盘底下问:“老师,这股还能涨吗?”或,“谁能说说这个财报下周是涨还是跌”这种问题的人可以考虑在现实中找任","text":"民主党要加税,债务上限不提升要违约,当所有人都认为美股到顶了这个风险被大众所察觉了,那这就已经称不上是风险了,真正的股灾都是在人无意识的情况下发生的,尤其是在大家都对自己操作和认知很自信的时候,那些能被意识到的风险自然也都被避免了。“人们永远也无法肯定,究竟是预期与后来的事件相一致,还是后面的事件顺应了预期,在此自然科学所强调的思想与事件之间的分离荡然无存了。”---索罗斯第一部分---抛弃天下有免费的午餐的想法,老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号早从去年开始,说美股要崩的声音就屡见不鲜。什么疫情要加剧,什么民主党要控制议会所以要对硅谷巨头FAANG加税,什么非农就业数据不好,什么中美关系有可能再度恶化,什么WSB投机导致市场投机行为猖獗,什么美联储要开始减码了,什么加息要提前了,什么美股已经涨的太高了……我觉得有7个字更能准确概括本篇文章一半想叙述的内容,那就是你要懂得区别噪音和信号。实际上,大多数情况下,市场都是噪音,黑色星期一股票下降的次数比其他几个工作日下降的多不是没道理,每当遇到周末,人们总是会在股市不开盘的那几天去阅读市场中各种所谓的“专家”言论,又或者阅读那些所谓的“有价值的信息”,阅读完毕之后内心极度恐惧,又或极度烦躁,希望立马就开盘交易,疯狂买疯狂抛。反正感觉到自己做了功课,同时又做了最正确的决策。结果是一顿操作猛如虎,一下亏了2万5。实际上,稍微动动脑筋想想,如果这些公开的免费信息有价值(即免费的午餐问题),那么至少从2个维度上看,它背后的逻辑根本站不住脚。第一个是,如果这是一个有价值的策略,那么这么多人接触到后,这个策略可能会失效。第二个是,如果这真的是一种有价值的信息(简单说就是能挣钱的信息),这些素不相识的人为什么要告诉你?所以那些喜欢在个股或者大盘底下问:“老师,这股还能涨吗?”或,“谁能说说这个财报下周是涨还是跌”这种问题的人可以考虑在现实中找任","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb0aa06a926ed319a4b1323da39e3319","width":"1080","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1353,"commentSize":269,"repostSize":134,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825864560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000310","authorId":"9000000000000310","name":"迪士尼迪斯尼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08ad56d0cf912758e58222fffc1f75b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000310","idStr":"9000000000000310"},"content":"很多人炒股是活在自己的世界里面的,以为自己的认知就是全世界,所以赔钱的人是大多数。","text":"很多人炒股是活在自己的世界里面的,以为自己的认知就是全世界,所以赔钱的人是大多数。","html":"很多人炒股是活在自己的世界里面的,以为自己的认知就是全世界,所以赔钱的人是大多数。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000309","authorId":"9000000000000309","name":"豆腐王中王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b54c3ff00aca78d815cf3ac82272b2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000309","idStr":"9000000000000309"},"content":"老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号,道理一听就懂,但是很多人都做不到。","text":"老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号,道理一听就懂,但是很多人都做不到。","html":"老老实实做人,懂得区别噪音与信号,道理一听就懂,但是很多人都做不到。"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873641414,"gmtCreate":1636941326236,"gmtModify":1636946824495,"author":{"id":"3479894068777241","authorId":"3479894068777241","name":"局外人___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca69accd9507306aa2ccd4828ab875d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479894068777241","idStr":"3479894068777241"},"themes":[],"title":"港股优质公司至暗时刻","htmlText":"如果告诉你某位投资者的五年收益为0,你会嘲笑他的能力吗?会觉得他傻,能力低下,判断力虚弱,不适合这个行业,是个Loser,五年白干么?那如果再告诉你,这位投资者的名字叫沃伦·巴菲特,你的心里还会那样想么?事实上,巴菲特在接下来的45年时间里,获得了8454倍的收益,同期标普500指数(含分红)增长仅仅147倍。投资从来就不是争快速,一年翻三倍容易,三年翻一倍却很难。几乎在每个阶段,你都会听到有人说,自己靠期权或者买一些热点题材股挣了十几倍几十倍。可出奇一致的是,很快没多久就再没听到这些人的消息了,好像这些人从此从市场上销声匿迹了一样。其实,塔勒布在自己书中说:“在任何一个时间点,赚钱最多的交易员往往是最差的交易员”的这段话最贴切的解释了这个现象的本质。那些在某些年完成了超出寻常收益的投资者,最应该思考的问题是,你是否能在接下来的几年中守住这份收益,这份超额收益到底是因为自己的运气还是能力,以及是冒了很高的风险或者还是进行了有效的风险管控取得的,不要自己骗自己,每个人都有夸大自己能力的倾向,但正如沈南鹏所说:“投资这个行业,最忌讳的就是自负,不能因为自己前几年做出了较好的成绩就觉得自己后面肯定比别人要强,这个行业是千变万化的,要永远把每天当做新的起点。”港股市场在今年年初达到峰值后,迎来了几次大幅度调整,尤其又以中概互联网调整最为严重,幅度最大。几大龙头股美团,腾讯,海底捞回撤幅度有的超了50%,现在问一问自己。你是否在投资还是在投机,问问自己这些公司的基本面真的已经恶化以至于你不得不抛出了么?中国这些年发展取得了巨大的进步,并将继续保持增长状态,而这些发展离不开科技的帮助,即使是传统行业,比如餐饮业,如果想要创造价值,打造与众不同的服务就餐体验,那些公司也都引起了科技元素,比如iPad点餐,扫码点餐这些技术,如果你真的看好中国,那现在港股的至暗时刻,就应该是你坚定重仓中国的","listText":"如果告诉你某位投资者的五年收益为0,你会嘲笑他的能力吗?会觉得他傻,能力低下,判断力虚弱,不适合这个行业,是个Loser,五年白干么?那如果再告诉你,这位投资者的名字叫沃伦·巴菲特,你的心里还会那样想么?事实上,巴菲特在接下来的45年时间里,获得了8454倍的收益,同期标普500指数(含分红)增长仅仅147倍。投资从来就不是争快速,一年翻三倍容易,三年翻一倍却很难。几乎在每个阶段,你都会听到有人说,自己靠期权或者买一些热点题材股挣了十几倍几十倍。可出奇一致的是,很快没多久就再没听到这些人的消息了,好像这些人从此从市场上销声匿迹了一样。其实,塔勒布在自己书中说:“在任何一个时间点,赚钱最多的交易员往往是最差的交易员”的这段话最贴切的解释了这个现象的本质。那些在某些年完成了超出寻常收益的投资者,最应该思考的问题是,你是否能在接下来的几年中守住这份收益,这份超额收益到底是因为自己的运气还是能力,以及是冒了很高的风险或者还是进行了有效的风险管控取得的,不要自己骗自己,每个人都有夸大自己能力的倾向,但正如沈南鹏所说:“投资这个行业,最忌讳的就是自负,不能因为自己前几年做出了较好的成绩就觉得自己后面肯定比别人要强,这个行业是千变万化的,要永远把每天当做新的起点。”港股市场在今年年初达到峰值后,迎来了几次大幅度调整,尤其又以中概互联网调整最为严重,幅度最大。几大龙头股美团,腾讯,海底捞回撤幅度有的超了50%,现在问一问自己。你是否在投资还是在投机,问问自己这些公司的基本面真的已经恶化以至于你不得不抛出了么?中国这些年发展取得了巨大的进步,并将继续保持增长状态,而这些发展离不开科技的帮助,即使是传统行业,比如餐饮业,如果想要创造价值,打造与众不同的服务就餐体验,那些公司也都引起了科技元素,比如iPad点餐,扫码点餐这些技术,如果你真的看好中国,那现在港股的至暗时刻,就应该是你坚定重仓中国的","text":"如果告诉你某位投资者的五年收益为0,你会嘲笑他的能力吗?会觉得他傻,能力低下,判断力虚弱,不适合这个行业,是个Loser,五年白干么?那如果再告诉你,这位投资者的名字叫沃伦·巴菲特,你的心里还会那样想么?事实上,巴菲特在接下来的45年时间里,获得了8454倍的收益,同期标普500指数(含分红)增长仅仅147倍。投资从来就不是争快速,一年翻三倍容易,三年翻一倍却很难。几乎在每个阶段,你都会听到有人说,自己靠期权或者买一些热点题材股挣了十几倍几十倍。可出奇一致的是,很快没多久就再没听到这些人的消息了,好像这些人从此从市场上销声匿迹了一样。其实,塔勒布在自己书中说:“在任何一个时间点,赚钱最多的交易员往往是最差的交易员”的这段话最贴切的解释了这个现象的本质。那些在某些年完成了超出寻常收益的投资者,最应该思考的问题是,你是否能在接下来的几年中守住这份收益,这份超额收益到底是因为自己的运气还是能力,以及是冒了很高的风险或者还是进行了有效的风险管控取得的,不要自己骗自己,每个人都有夸大自己能力的倾向,但正如沈南鹏所说:“投资这个行业,最忌讳的就是自负,不能因为自己前几年做出了较好的成绩就觉得自己后面肯定比别人要强,这个行业是千变万化的,要永远把每天当做新的起点。”港股市场在今年年初达到峰值后,迎来了几次大幅度调整,尤其又以中概互联网调整最为严重,幅度最大。几大龙头股美团,腾讯,海底捞回撤幅度有的超了50%,现在问一问自己。你是否在投资还是在投机,问问自己这些公司的基本面真的已经恶化以至于你不得不抛出了么?中国这些年发展取得了巨大的进步,并将继续保持增长状态,而这些发展离不开科技的帮助,即使是传统行业,比如餐饮业,如果想要创造价值,打造与众不同的服务就餐体验,那些公司也都引起了科技元素,比如iPad点餐,扫码点餐这些技术,如果你真的看好中国,那现在港股的至暗时刻,就应该是你坚定重仓中国的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d80b9bc58bbbff9b8cab91961ed842","width":"1080","height":"718"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":486,"commentSize":111,"repostSize":7,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873641414","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000628","authorId":"9000000000000628","name":"权力的游戏厅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/067cda6133365badca6b51d9248d2066","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000628","idStr":"9000000000000628"},"content":"很赞成你的观点,每个人在辉煌时期的成就,都源于低估时的选择。","text":"很赞成你的观点,每个人在辉煌时期的成就,都源于低估时的选择。","html":"很赞成你的观点,每个人在辉煌时期的成就,都源于低估时的选择。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000312","authorId":"9000000000000312","name":"灯塔国02","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75f260c793b0cead55697886df150a55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000312","idStr":"9000000000000312"},"content":"看得我热血澎湃,今天就开始建仓海底捞,静待花开。","text":"看得我热血澎湃,今天就开始建仓海底捞,静待花开。","html":"看得我热血澎湃,今天就开始建仓海底捞,静待花开。"}],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818253745,"gmtCreate":1630416183087,"gmtModify":1630461248966,"author":{"id":"3479894068777241","authorId":"3479894068777241","name":"局外人___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca69accd9507306aa2ccd4828ab875d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479894068777241","idStr":"3479894068777241"},"themes":[],"title":"对吉姆·罗杰斯关于期权问题的一点质疑","htmlText":"“ 传奇性的” 投资人罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说过这样的话:我不买期权。若要住救济院,去买期权不失为另一个好法子。有人为证券交易委员会(SEC) 做研究,发现90%的期权到期时都发生亏损。嗯,我算过,如果90%的多头期权头寸都赔钱,那就表示 90% 的空头期权头寸赚钱。如果我看坏后市时必须用到期权,我会卖出买(calls)。Je ne suis pas d’accord avec ceque vous dites, mais je me battrai jusqu’à la mort pour que vous ayez le droitde le dire.“我不同意你的观点,但我誓死捍卫你说话的权利” ----- 伏尔泰吉姆·罗杰斯当然是这个世纪最伟大的投资家,但是正如索罗斯导师卡尔·波普尔所言:“普通人存在的一个误区是,以为伟人不会犯错”要知道如果我们将期权完全作为一个随机事件来看,那么我们依靠期权得到的收益期望,在数学上至少由2部分构成,(即事件发生的概率*结果)下图是我用Tableau做出的图示,简单来说也就是由A、B两个事件,你去赌博,100次里面有99次赔1块钱(事件A),有1次赢1000块钱(事件B)。那么即使是这样99%的概率你都赔钱,你还是能得到总的9.01块钱的正期望值,简而言之,只要这个赌博游戏你一直玩下去,长期来说你肯定是盈利的。罗杰斯只考虑到了期权的概率问题,没谈论期权的结果问题,从这个意义上来说,这样对期权的看法是片面的。在这里我还记得冯仑的微博发过罗杰斯的一件事,大致上说的是罗杰斯觉得对自己不懂的东西下注是赌博,不是投资。(想看原文直接上冯仑风马牛微博上查看)他说罗杰斯这样说的原因是他自己曾经去了趟纳米比亚,买了一颗钻石。开始店家说7万美金给罗杰斯杀价到500美金,之后去了坦桑尼亚他把钻石秀给一位钻石商人看。那商人看了后告诉他这不是钻石","listText":"“ 传奇性的” 投资人罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说过这样的话:我不买期权。若要住救济院,去买期权不失为另一个好法子。有人为证券交易委员会(SEC) 做研究,发现90%的期权到期时都发生亏损。嗯,我算过,如果90%的多头期权头寸都赔钱,那就表示 90% 的空头期权头寸赚钱。如果我看坏后市时必须用到期权,我会卖出买(calls)。Je ne suis pas d’accord avec ceque vous dites, mais je me battrai jusqu’à la mort pour que vous ayez le droitde le dire.“我不同意你的观点,但我誓死捍卫你说话的权利” ----- 伏尔泰吉姆·罗杰斯当然是这个世纪最伟大的投资家,但是正如索罗斯导师卡尔·波普尔所言:“普通人存在的一个误区是,以为伟人不会犯错”要知道如果我们将期权完全作为一个随机事件来看,那么我们依靠期权得到的收益期望,在数学上至少由2部分构成,(即事件发生的概率*结果)下图是我用Tableau做出的图示,简单来说也就是由A、B两个事件,你去赌博,100次里面有99次赔1块钱(事件A),有1次赢1000块钱(事件B)。那么即使是这样99%的概率你都赔钱,你还是能得到总的9.01块钱的正期望值,简而言之,只要这个赌博游戏你一直玩下去,长期来说你肯定是盈利的。罗杰斯只考虑到了期权的概率问题,没谈论期权的结果问题,从这个意义上来说,这样对期权的看法是片面的。在这里我还记得冯仑的微博发过罗杰斯的一件事,大致上说的是罗杰斯觉得对自己不懂的东西下注是赌博,不是投资。(想看原文直接上冯仑风马牛微博上查看)他说罗杰斯这样说的原因是他自己曾经去了趟纳米比亚,买了一颗钻石。开始店家说7万美金给罗杰斯杀价到500美金,之后去了坦桑尼亚他把钻石秀给一位钻石商人看。那商人看了后告诉他这不是钻石","text":"“ 传奇性的” 投资人罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)说过这样的话:我不买期权。若要住救济院,去买期权不失为另一个好法子。有人为证券交易委员会(SEC) 做研究,发现90%的期权到期时都发生亏损。嗯,我算过,如果90%的多头期权头寸都赔钱,那就表示 90% 的空头期权头寸赚钱。如果我看坏后市时必须用到期权,我会卖出买(calls)。Je ne suis pas d’accord avec ceque vous dites, mais je me battrai jusqu’à la mort pour que vous ayez le droitde le dire.“我不同意你的观点,但我誓死捍卫你说话的权利” ----- 伏尔泰吉姆·罗杰斯当然是这个世纪最伟大的投资家,但是正如索罗斯导师卡尔·波普尔所言:“普通人存在的一个误区是,以为伟人不会犯错”要知道如果我们将期权完全作为一个随机事件来看,那么我们依靠期权得到的收益期望,在数学上至少由2部分构成,(即事件发生的概率*结果)下图是我用Tableau做出的图示,简单来说也就是由A、B两个事件,你去赌博,100次里面有99次赔1块钱(事件A),有1次赢1000块钱(事件B)。那么即使是这样99%的概率你都赔钱,你还是能得到总的9.01块钱的正期望值,简而言之,只要这个赌博游戏你一直玩下去,长期来说你肯定是盈利的。罗杰斯只考虑到了期权的概率问题,没谈论期权的结果问题,从这个意义上来说,这样对期权的看法是片面的。在这里我还记得冯仑的微博发过罗杰斯的一件事,大致上说的是罗杰斯觉得对自己不懂的东西下注是赌博,不是投资。(想看原文直接上冯仑风马牛微博上查看)他说罗杰斯这样说的原因是他自己曾经去了趟纳米比亚,买了一颗钻石。开始店家说7万美金给罗杰斯杀价到500美金,之后去了坦桑尼亚他把钻石秀给一位钻石商人看。那商人看了后告诉他这不是钻石","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe22ed9ddb3502d0035379565f4e12f1","width":"688","height":"413"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32528037c227c39f03ab05e5bd0a9fb9","width":"688","height":"460"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba41cff2ef617fd02620c8e051fb9a0a","width":"688","height":"534"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":19,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":6,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818253745","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000158","authorId":"9000000000000158","name":"哎呀呀小伙子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df6a0fed4b2624034014be633476534a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000158","idStr":"9000000000000158"},"content":"罗解析远离了自己未能完全了解的事情,并记住了这个教训,要是他真的了解了估计就不会远离了。","text":"罗解析远离了自己未能完全了解的事情,并记住了这个教训,要是他真的了解了估计就不会远离了。","html":"罗解析远离了自己未能完全了解的事情,并记住了这个教训,要是他真的了解了估计就不会远离了。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000220","authorId":"9000000000000220","name":"沙漠追光大海逐风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30b7f24ce0a6599dcdfa3567f958dea","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000220","idStr":"9000000000000220"},"content":"存在即合理,基本上人很难赚到自己认知以外的钱,罗杰斯也是如此,所以我们也不能说人家错。","text":"存在即合理,基本上人很难赚到自己认知以外的钱,罗杰斯也是如此,所以我们也不能说人家错。","html":"存在即合理,基本上人很难赚到自己认知以外的钱,罗杰斯也是如此,所以我们也不能说人家错。"}],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619873847,"gmtCreate":1649216102222,"gmtModify":1649232405061,"author":{"id":"3479894068777241","authorId":"3479894068777241","name":"局外人___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca69accd9507306aa2ccd4828ab875d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479894068777241","idStr":"3479894068777241"},"themes":[],"title":"市场低估了美联储为抑制通胀而加息的目标","htmlText":"随着消费者物价指数在全球范围类创几十年新高,并且俄乌战争的爆发加剧了油价的攀升,这些都导致了市场不得不面对的一个现实是通胀可能不会像你想象的那样那么容易降下来。市场中关于加息的预期总是充满各种观点,但观点不是事实,聪明人要学会区别观点和事实的区别,以便自己为自己的投资选择做决定。下面就拿美国股市历史上最重要的几组事实数据来说话,以提供给虎友们做投资参考第一:股票市场总市值占美国GDP百分比市场的总市值一般是国民生产总值的63%。这比例在1929年达到了72%的高点,在1972年达到了81%的高点(最终证明,这两点都是市场的高点),在2000年,又高至184%(又一个高点),出现一段时间的下降后,于2006年又回复到了148%的高位。在股票价格下跌之后(国民生产总值下跌的幅度比这小多了),如今这比例维持在183.59%的高位。第二:标准普尔500指数市场价格与账面价值之比,即市净率在有数据记载的三十年间,以标准普尔500指数计算,平均每一美元的账面价值对应着2.4美元的股票市场价格。从1977年到20世纪90年代早期,这一比例一直都很稳定,但是在2000年,这一比例已经翻番至高达5.42美元。(投资者都在想些,什么呢?)经过几年时间,市净率(price-to-bookratio)下降至大约3美元,然而,在2007-2009年间,这一比例骤降至1.78美元。而如今这一比例为4.6,距离历史最高值差额仅仅0.82。第三: 每一美元股息的价格预期2009年每股股息为21.97美元,标准普尔500指数的回报率大约为2.1%,这是我们基于基本面分析投资回报率的第一步。但是请记住,2.1%的回报率相当于为每美元股息支付47美元,这个价格大致是长期平均水平26美元的两倍,尽管只是1999年最高水平87美元的一半。在确定长期价值的公式中,股息率是很重要的组成部分,与过去的回报率相比,股息率所","listText":"随着消费者物价指数在全球范围类创几十年新高,并且俄乌战争的爆发加剧了油价的攀升,这些都导致了市场不得不面对的一个现实是通胀可能不会像你想象的那样那么容易降下来。市场中关于加息的预期总是充满各种观点,但观点不是事实,聪明人要学会区别观点和事实的区别,以便自己为自己的投资选择做决定。下面就拿美国股市历史上最重要的几组事实数据来说话,以提供给虎友们做投资参考第一:股票市场总市值占美国GDP百分比市场的总市值一般是国民生产总值的63%。这比例在1929年达到了72%的高点,在1972年达到了81%的高点(最终证明,这两点都是市场的高点),在2000年,又高至184%(又一个高点),出现一段时间的下降后,于2006年又回复到了148%的高位。在股票价格下跌之后(国民生产总值下跌的幅度比这小多了),如今这比例维持在183.59%的高位。第二:标准普尔500指数市场价格与账面价值之比,即市净率在有数据记载的三十年间,以标准普尔500指数计算,平均每一美元的账面价值对应着2.4美元的股票市场价格。从1977年到20世纪90年代早期,这一比例一直都很稳定,但是在2000年,这一比例已经翻番至高达5.42美元。(投资者都在想些,什么呢?)经过几年时间,市净率(price-to-bookratio)下降至大约3美元,然而,在2007-2009年间,这一比例骤降至1.78美元。而如今这一比例为4.6,距离历史最高值差额仅仅0.82。第三: 每一美元股息的价格预期2009年每股股息为21.97美元,标准普尔500指数的回报率大约为2.1%,这是我们基于基本面分析投资回报率的第一步。但是请记住,2.1%的回报率相当于为每美元股息支付47美元,这个价格大致是长期平均水平26美元的两倍,尽管只是1999年最高水平87美元的一半。在确定长期价值的公式中,股息率是很重要的组成部分,与过去的回报率相比,股息率所","text":"随着消费者物价指数在全球范围类创几十年新高,并且俄乌战争的爆发加剧了油价的攀升,这些都导致了市场不得不面对的一个现实是通胀可能不会像你想象的那样那么容易降下来。市场中关于加息的预期总是充满各种观点,但观点不是事实,聪明人要学会区别观点和事实的区别,以便自己为自己的投资选择做决定。下面就拿美国股市历史上最重要的几组事实数据来说话,以提供给虎友们做投资参考第一:股票市场总市值占美国GDP百分比市场的总市值一般是国民生产总值的63%。这比例在1929年达到了72%的高点,在1972年达到了81%的高点(最终证明,这两点都是市场的高点),在2000年,又高至184%(又一个高点),出现一段时间的下降后,于2006年又回复到了148%的高位。在股票价格下跌之后(国民生产总值下跌的幅度比这小多了),如今这比例维持在183.59%的高位。第二:标准普尔500指数市场价格与账面价值之比,即市净率在有数据记载的三十年间,以标准普尔500指数计算,平均每一美元的账面价值对应着2.4美元的股票市场价格。从1977年到20世纪90年代早期,这一比例一直都很稳定,但是在2000年,这一比例已经翻番至高达5.42美元。(投资者都在想些,什么呢?)经过几年时间,市净率(price-to-bookratio)下降至大约3美元,然而,在2007-2009年间,这一比例骤降至1.78美元。而如今这一比例为4.6,距离历史最高值差额仅仅0.82。第三: 每一美元股息的价格预期2009年每股股息为21.97美元,标准普尔500指数的回报率大约为2.1%,这是我们基于基本面分析投资回报率的第一步。但是请记住,2.1%的回报率相当于为每美元股息支付47美元,这个价格大致是长期平均水平26美元的两倍,尽管只是1999年最高水平87美元的一半。在确定长期价值的公式中,股息率是很重要的组成部分,与过去的回报率相比,股息率所","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/598e06727b5a94f5295c40aa71243218","width":"632","height":"527"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d758c80f41b89a48e7d6fbeef8ddb660","width":"624","height":"296"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/492f27a3a258ec4841bd16cb6296186c","width":"632","height":"422"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":78,"commentSize":39,"repostSize":11,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619873847","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000501","authorId":"9000000000000501","name":"仙气护体","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000501","idStr":"9000000000000501"},"content":"美联储加息,美债收益率上升,紧缩的市场环境已经基本形成","text":"美联储加息,美债收益率上升,紧缩的市场环境已经基本形成","html":"美联储加息,美债收益率上升,紧缩的市场环境已经基本形成"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000511","authorId":"9000000000000511","name":"喵里喵气","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000511","idStr":"9000000000000511"},"content":"供应链受损,大宗商品涨价并不都是货币因素造成的","text":"供应链受损,大宗商品涨价并不都是货币因素造成的","html":"供应链受损,大宗商品涨价并不都是货币因素造成的"}],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":205235064336512,"gmtCreate":1691115561907,"gmtModify":1691115604497,"author":{"id":"3479894068777241","authorId":"3479894068777241","name":"局外人___","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca69accd9507306aa2ccd4828ab875d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3479894068777241","idStr":"3479894068777241"},"themes":[],"title":"以投资者角度看Coinbase连续6个季度亏损","htmlText":"Coinbase Global(Coinbase)是美国最大的加密货币交易所之一,然而,该公司仍然面临着自己的加密冬季。监管风险和交易量下降继续对Coinbase造成压力,导致该公司连续第六个季度亏损。 在第二季度, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> 录得9700万美元的亏损,每股亏损42美分,营收为7.08亿美元。股票在盘后交易中表现起伏不定,尽管该股票今年飙升了156%,但其股价远低于381美元的首次公开发行价。 Coinbase在国内仍与监管机构陷入法律纠纷。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)于今年6月起诉Coinbase,指控其违反了注册为交易所并接受联邦机构监管的规定。Coinbase的首席法律官保罗·格雷瓦尔表示,Coinbase将提交一份简要陈述,要求法院驳回SEC的诉讼,并表示预计会获胜。 Coinbase过去主要依赖从个体投资者那里获得的交易费用,但现在该公司通过托管服务、利息收入和质押等其他领域也开始赚钱。 在第二季度中,Coinbase从订阅和服务收入中获得了3.35亿美元,占总净收入的51%,首次超过交易收入。值得注意的是,由于USD Coin市值下降,利息收入下滑了16%。Coinbase与Circle Internet Financial的USD Coin稳定币共享利息收入,这些利息来自USD Coin的储备金。 交易量对Coinbase来说是重要的收入来源,但在第二季度,总交易量从去年的2,170亿美元下降到920亿美元。个人和机构交易量之间的差距仍然很大,机构交易量占据了总交易量的85%。 Coinbase的月活跃用户数在第二季度下降了19%,至730万人。这反映出用户参与交易和使用Coinbase的其他产品的程度下降。 除了Coinbase,","listText":"Coinbase Global(Coinbase)是美国最大的加密货币交易所之一,然而,该公司仍然面临着自己的加密冬季。监管风险和交易量下降继续对Coinbase造成压力,导致该公司连续第六个季度亏损。 在第二季度, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$</a> 录得9700万美元的亏损,每股亏损42美分,营收为7.08亿美元。股票在盘后交易中表现起伏不定,尽管该股票今年飙升了156%,但其股价远低于381美元的首次公开发行价。 Coinbase在国内仍与监管机构陷入法律纠纷。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)于今年6月起诉Coinbase,指控其违反了注册为交易所并接受联邦机构监管的规定。Coinbase的首席法律官保罗·格雷瓦尔表示,Coinbase将提交一份简要陈述,要求法院驳回SEC的诉讼,并表示预计会获胜。 Coinbase过去主要依赖从个体投资者那里获得的交易费用,但现在该公司通过托管服务、利息收入和质押等其他领域也开始赚钱。 在第二季度中,Coinbase从订阅和服务收入中获得了3.35亿美元,占总净收入的51%,首次超过交易收入。值得注意的是,由于USD Coin市值下降,利息收入下滑了16%。Coinbase与Circle Internet Financial的USD Coin稳定币共享利息收入,这些利息来自USD Coin的储备金。 交易量对Coinbase来说是重要的收入来源,但在第二季度,总交易量从去年的2,170亿美元下降到920亿美元。个人和机构交易量之间的差距仍然很大,机构交易量占据了总交易量的85%。 Coinbase的月活跃用户数在第二季度下降了19%,至730万人。这反映出用户参与交易和使用Coinbase的其他产品的程度下降。 除了Coinbase,","text":"Coinbase Global(Coinbase)是美国最大的加密货币交易所之一,然而,该公司仍然面临着自己的加密冬季。监管风险和交易量下降继续对Coinbase造成压力,导致该公司连续第六个季度亏损。 在第二季度, $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 录得9700万美元的亏损,每股亏损42美分,营收为7.08亿美元。股票在盘后交易中表现起伏不定,尽管该股票今年飙升了156%,但其股价远低于381美元的首次公开发行价。 Coinbase在国内仍与监管机构陷入法律纠纷。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)于今年6月起诉Coinbase,指控其违反了注册为交易所并接受联邦机构监管的规定。Coinbase的首席法律官保罗·格雷瓦尔表示,Coinbase将提交一份简要陈述,要求法院驳回SEC的诉讼,并表示预计会获胜。 Coinbase过去主要依赖从个体投资者那里获得的交易费用,但现在该公司通过托管服务、利息收入和质押等其他领域也开始赚钱。 在第二季度中,Coinbase从订阅和服务收入中获得了3.35亿美元,占总净收入的51%,首次超过交易收入。值得注意的是,由于USD Coin市值下降,利息收入下滑了16%。Coinbase与Circle Internet Financial的USD Coin稳定币共享利息收入,这些利息来自USD Coin的储备金。 交易量对Coinbase来说是重要的收入来源,但在第二季度,总交易量从去年的2,170亿美元下降到920亿美元。个人和机构交易量之间的差距仍然很大,机构交易量占据了总交易量的85%。 Coinbase的月活跃用户数在第二季度下降了19%,至730万人。这反映出用户参与交易和使用Coinbase的其他产品的程度下降。 除了Coinbase,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107450ad6cb87be3915436102ce0a755","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/205235064336512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}