+关注
Sun99811224
金融民工
IP属地:北京
57
关注
6
粉丝
3
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
Sun99811224
08-12
匝
AI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏
Sun99811224
2021-03-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
抱歉,原内容已删除
Sun99811224
2021-01-29
$游戏驿站(GME)$
想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?
Sun99811224
2020-12-08
$赣锋锂业(01772)$
远不如特斯拉和国产三家整车涨的多,但是拿着踏实[财迷]
Sun99811224
2020-07-24
$蔚来(NIO)$
“二季度毛利肯定转正”。翻译过来就是终于不卖一部亏一部了[叹气]虽然我不敢投你,还是希望你能生存下去
Sun99811224
2020-07-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。
Sun99811224
2020-07-08
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
积攒的洪荒之力终于爆发了
Sun99811224
2020-05-22
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
EPS小幅超预期(0.87vs0.86),营收小幅不及预期(15.2vs15.28)
Sun99811224
2020-03-24
$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$
Fed开启钞能力了
Sun99811224
2020-03-23
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
追涨,就会败北[开心]
Sun99811224
2020-03-21
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
盘前T出去了,洗洗睡,周末持币
Sun99811224
2020-03-17
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$微软(MSFT)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
幸亏上周五收盘卖了1/10,要不手里连子弹都没有了,大盘再跌10%就干进去。要是还继续跌的话,就只好卖债券补了
$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$
Sun99811224
2020-03-14
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
Sun99811224
2020-03-09
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
从腰斩再腰斩到盈利,多希望它能一直跌下去[捂脸]
Sun99811224
2020-02-25
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
开始箱体震荡了么?
Sun99811224
2020-01-21
$迪士尼(DIS)$
收集筹码!应该比FAANG性价比高!
Sun99811224
2020-01-18
$小米集团-W(01810)$
持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]
Sun99811224
2020-01-16
$迪士尼(DIS)$
太菜了,干不过隔壁奈飞?
Sun99811224
2020-01-07
$九毛九(09922)$
全仓打问题大吗?
Sun99811224
2020-01-02
$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$
大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3448502281011258","uuid":"3448502281011258","gmtCreate":1485459764247,"gmtModify":1487834848921,"name":"Sun99811224","pinyin":"sun99811224","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"金融民工","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":57,"tweetSize":28,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":3,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":9,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.07.20","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.10","exceedPercentage":"93.94%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.52%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"北京","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":595861409440472,"gmtCreate":1786492198169,"gmtModify":1786492200214,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"匝","listText":"匝","text":"匝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595861409440472","repostId":"2658946942","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2658946942","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786490826,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2658946942?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-12 07:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658946942","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光通信概念股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a>公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e936f6e090de6b9298ace1014f439e3c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">几个核心指标如下:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">指标</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Q4实际</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场预期</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上年同期/同比</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">净营收</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">10.1亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9.88亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.807亿美元</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.23美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.97美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+267%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.064亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP毛利率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">50.4%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+1260bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">36.6%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+2160bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP净利润</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.263亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+415%<br/><br/></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210ae5f2434cf9961bbfb9976fbf8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.494亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.369亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.204亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+103%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.569亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.504亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1.603亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+123%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddcdf6bbeb330e4f7aedb5b42cc6d80\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"558\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum预计第一财季:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里涉及几个关键技术方向:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">光电</a>共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768ce2f9eee454621da8860203a41d52\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"552\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-12 07:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光通信概念股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a>公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e936f6e090de6b9298ace1014f439e3c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">几个核心指标如下:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">指标</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Q4实际</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场预期</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上年同期/同比</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">净营收</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">10.1亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9.88亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.807亿美元</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.23美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.97美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+267%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.064亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP毛利率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">50.4%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+1260bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">36.6%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+2160bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP净利润</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.263亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+415%<br/><br/></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210ae5f2434cf9961bbfb9976fbf8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.494亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.369亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.204亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+103%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.569亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.504亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1.603亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+123%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddcdf6bbeb330e4f7aedb5b42cc6d80\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"558\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum预计第一财季:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里涉及几个关键技术方向:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">光电</a>共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768ce2f9eee454621da8860203a41d52\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"552\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc0d2da7f88b0404ecb8e133f17b5d8","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LITX":"Tradr 2X Long LITE Daily ETF","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0205194284.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LAZR":"Tema Photonics & Optical ETF","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0012050646.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","BK4020":"通信设备","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0106261612.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0205193047.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","EGGY":"NESTYIELD DYNAMIC INCOME SHIELD ETF","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0240878834.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779219","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658946942","content_text":"第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。光通信概念股 Lumentum Holdings Inc.公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。几个核心指标如下:指标Q4实际市场预期上年同期/同比净营收10.1亿美元9.88亿美元4.807亿美元调整后EPS3.23美元2.97美元同比+267%调整后EBITDA4.064亿美元——非GAAP毛利率50.4%—同比+1260bp非GAAP经营利润率36.6%—同比+2160bp非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元—同比+415%组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速组件与零部件6.494亿美元6.369亿美元3.204亿美元约+103%系统3.569亿美元3.504亿美元1.603亿美元约+123%组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。Lumentum预计第一财季:营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。这里涉及几个关键技术方向:CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,光电共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LITX":0.6,"LITE":1.98,"EGGY":0.6,"LAZR":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329311541,"gmtCreate":1615207488383,"gmtModify":1703485655719,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329311541","repostId":"2116574238","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316986666,"gmtCreate":1611911363155,"gmtModify":1703756021083,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316986666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3456660888338716","authorId":"3456660888338716","name":"Wenbin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/15b0a3fd4239f31e4c3e7ce57e9123e5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3456660888338716","idStr":"3456660888338716"},"content":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失","text":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失","html":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失"},{"author":{"id":"3463396495859877","authorId":"3463396495859877","name":"韭菜们冲啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed1cab609fbd8b5f64e6d01da19ef18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3463396495859877","idStr":"3463396495859877"},"content":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔","text":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔","html":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392156900,"gmtCreate":1607408221600,"gmtModify":1703847648956,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">$赣锋锂业(01772)$</a>远不如特斯拉和国产三家整车涨的多,但是拿着踏实[财迷]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01772\">$赣锋锂业(01772)$</a>远不如特斯拉和国产三家整车涨的多,但是拿着踏实[财迷]","text":"$赣锋锂业(01772)$远不如特斯拉和国产三家整车涨的多,但是拿着踏实[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f81b8d2441b53b5c9c97581d901de2ac","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392156900","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946318904,"gmtCreate":1595594148308,"gmtModify":1704209571193,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>“二季度毛利肯定转正”。翻译过来就是终于不卖一部亏一部了[叹气]虽然我不敢投你,还是希望你能生存下去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>“二季度毛利肯定转正”。翻译过来就是终于不卖一部亏一部了[叹气]虽然我不敢投你,还是希望你能生存下去","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$“二季度毛利肯定转正”。翻译过来就是终于不卖一部亏一部了[叹气]虽然我不敢投你,还是希望你能生存下去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946318904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943742788,"gmtCreate":1594726607844,"gmtModify":1704206528968,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943742788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493450951386460","authorId":"3493450951386460","name":"挥刀自宫要果断","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493450951386460","idStr":"3493450951386460"},"content":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。","text":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。","html":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949844263,"gmtCreate":1594217093552,"gmtModify":1704204501862,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>积攒的洪荒之力终于爆发了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>积攒的洪荒之力终于爆发了","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$积攒的洪荒之力终于爆发了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949844263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953365908,"gmtCreate":1590137331604,"gmtModify":1704191952781,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>EPS小幅超预期(0.87vs0.86),营收小幅不及预期(15.2vs15.28)","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>EPS小幅超预期(0.87vs0.86),营收小幅不及预期(15.2vs15.28)","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$EPS小幅超预期(0.87vs0.86),营收小幅不及预期(15.2vs15.28)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953365908","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920208149,"gmtCreate":1585030466181,"gmtModify":1704356607770,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$</a>Fed开启钞能力了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$</a>Fed开启钞能力了","text":"$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$Fed开启钞能力了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920208149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920179754,"gmtCreate":1584967585978,"gmtModify":1704356317923,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>追涨,就会败北[开心]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>追涨,就会败北[开心]","text":"$标普500ETF(SPY)$追涨,就会败北[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920179754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920028832,"gmtCreate":1584721415426,"gmtModify":1704355868064,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>盘前T出去了,洗洗睡,周末持币","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>盘前T出去了,洗洗睡,周末持币","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$盘前T出去了,洗洗睡,周末持币","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920028832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964485627,"gmtCreate":1584447222869,"gmtModify":1704354179687,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>幸亏上周五收盘卖了1/10,要不手里连子弹都没有了,大盘再跌10%就干进去。要是还继续跌的话,就只好卖债券补了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>幸亏上周五收盘卖了1/10,要不手里连子弹都没有了,大盘再跌10%就干进去。要是还继续跌的话,就只好卖债券补了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$微软(MSFT)$$亚马逊(AMZN)$幸亏上周五收盘卖了1/10,要不手里连子弹都没有了,大盘再跌10%就干进去。要是还继续跌的话,就只好卖债券补了$债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债(LQD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964485627","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964988410,"gmtCreate":1584115313930,"gmtModify":1704353193311,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>","listText":" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddc1f4ae3e424a26907325924382512","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964988410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522707023542855","authorId":"3522707023542855","name":"爬行者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3522707023542855","idStr":"3522707023542855"},"content":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发","text":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发","html":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发"},{"author":{"id":"3496678545901398","authorId":"3496678545901398","name":"夏夜001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e4fd2448e42634bd2798218441128d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3496678545901398","idStr":"3496678545901398"},"content":"要不要我带带你","text":"要不要我带带你","html":"要不要我带带你"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":981275918,"gmtCreate":1583763210234,"gmtModify":1704350772685,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>从腰斩再腰斩到盈利,多希望它能一直跌下去[捂脸]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>从腰斩再腰斩到盈利,多希望它能一直跌下去[捂脸]","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$从腰斩再腰斩到盈利,多希望它能一直跌下去[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/981275918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980746514,"gmtCreate":1582639835338,"gmtModify":1704347080461,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>开始箱体震荡了么?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>开始箱体震荡了么?","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$开始箱体震荡了么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980746514","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916519702,"gmtCreate":1579619717906,"gmtModify":1704340016217,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$</a>收集筹码!应该比FAANG性价比高!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$</a>收集筹码!应该比FAANG性价比高!","text":"$迪士尼(DIS)$收集筹码!应该比FAANG性价比高!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916519702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916896814,"gmtCreate":1579280361338,"gmtModify":1704339593706,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a6ae19b3b6d8fdd5e351d2fd410d4c","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916896814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492820110824791","authorId":"3492820110824791","name":"CWZY1800W","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c234b41399e94cec962552f2fabc22c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492820110824791","idStr":"3492820110824791"},"content":"所以还在持有吗","text":"所以还在持有吗","html":"所以还在持有吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918714390,"gmtCreate":1579106459410,"gmtModify":1704338977055,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$</a>太菜了,干不过隔壁奈飞?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$迪士尼(DIS)$</a>太菜了,干不过隔壁奈飞?","text":"$迪士尼(DIS)$太菜了,干不过隔壁奈飞?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/918714390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911645470,"gmtCreate":1578331556090,"gmtModify":1704337259718,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">$九毛九(09922)$</a>全仓打问题大吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">$九毛九(09922)$</a>全仓打问题大吗?","text":"$九毛九(09922)$全仓打问题大吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911645470","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911967430,"gmtCreate":1577980730920,"gmtModify":1704336722312,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","text":"$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911967430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465568358674175","authorId":"3465568358674175","name":"莱茵河公爵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617acd0f726f774b413fc58bc252b84","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3465568358674175","idStr":"3465568358674175"},"content":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]","text":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]","html":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]"},{"author":{"id":"3490074433062883","authorId":"3490074433062883","name":"我是昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c29db5a91e7d800235ae016bb5de7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3490074433062883","idStr":"3490074433062883"},"content":"什么心态","text":"什么心态","html":"什么心态"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":934263388,"gmtCreate":1574320447844,"gmtModify":1704727704979,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>假如你有十亿港元做配置,你会买多少阿里?香港主力还都是机构吧,不买阿里买什么呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>假如你有十亿港元做配置,你会买多少阿里?香港主力还都是机构吧,不买阿里买什么呢?","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$假如你有十亿港元做配置,你会买多少阿里?香港主力还都是机构吧,不买阿里买什么呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934263388","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":10753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3514329116425907","idStr":"3514329116425907"},"content":"一半阿里一半腾讯","text":"一半阿里一半腾讯","html":"一半阿里一半腾讯"},{"author":{"id":"3521290867831627","authorId":"3521290867831627","name":"liberty1776","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a964c58ccd35c6a97f4ba3b77ac3f56f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3521290867831627","idStr":"3521290867831627"},"content":"买美元,然后投资美股市场","text":"买美元,然后投资美股市场","html":"买美元,然后投资美股市场"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316986666,"gmtCreate":1611911363155,"gmtModify":1703756021083,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$想参与一下,做多1股还是做空一股呢?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316986666","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3456660888338716","authorId":"3456660888338716","name":"Wenbin","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/15b0a3fd4239f31e4c3e7ce57e9123e5","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3456660888338716","idStr":"3456660888338716"},"content":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失","text":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失","html":"做多你最多亏完股价,做空你有可能无限损失"},{"author":{"id":"3463396495859877","authorId":"3463396495859877","name":"韭菜们冲啊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed1cab609fbd8b5f64e6d01da19ef18","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3463396495859877","idStr":"3463396495859877"},"content":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔","text":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔","html":"能做空就买,留够保证金,稳赚不赔"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911967430,"gmtCreate":1577980730920,"gmtModify":1704336722312,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","text":"$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$大家的心态和去年冬天的空头好像[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911967430","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3465568358674175","authorId":"3465568358674175","name":"莱茵河公爵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c617acd0f726f774b413fc58bc252b84","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3465568358674175","idStr":"3465568358674175"},"content":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]","text":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]","html":"去年的空头在此,那波爆拉套了我五十个点,不过后来继续加仓平安下车还小赚十几个点 [开心]"},{"author":{"id":"3490074433062883","authorId":"3490074433062883","name":"我是昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c29db5a91e7d800235ae016bb5de7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3490074433062883","idStr":"3490074433062883"},"content":"什么心态","text":"什么心态","html":"什么心态"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937335073,"gmtCreate":1574748753492,"gmtModify":1704728429575,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>188HKD转化成美金是192,很正常啊。阿里从此一天只有3个小时收盘时间了嘛[笑哭]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>188HKD转化成美金是192,很正常啊。阿里从此一天只有3个小时收盘时间了嘛[笑哭]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$188HKD转化成美金是192,很正常啊。阿里从此一天只有3个小时收盘时间了嘛[笑哭]$阿里巴巴(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937335073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3506463342587150","authorId":"3506463342587150","name":"pamler","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30ccd6943cbfa98a0b33b620df1259be","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3506463342587150","idStr":"3506463342587150"},"content":"一拆8再算汇率 差不多","text":"一拆8再算汇率 差不多","html":"一拆8再算汇率 差不多"},{"author":{"id":"39038847103080","authorId":"39038847103080","name":"Howard","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/adb3b62e446242c2d152745bf368ef79","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"39038847103080","idStr":"39038847103080"},"content":"188 你怎么转到 192?","text":"188 你怎么转到 192?","html":"188 你怎么转到 192?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595861409440472,"gmtCreate":1786492198169,"gmtModify":1786492200214,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"匝","listText":"匝","text":"匝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595861409440472","repostId":"2658946942","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2658946942","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786490826,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2658946942?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-12 07:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"AI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658946942","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光通信概念股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a>公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e936f6e090de6b9298ace1014f439e3c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">几个核心指标如下:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">指标</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Q4实际</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场预期</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上年同期/同比</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">净营收</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">10.1亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9.88亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.807亿美元</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.23美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.97美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+267%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.064亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP毛利率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">50.4%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+1260bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">36.6%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+2160bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP净利润</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.263亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+415%<br/><br/></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210ae5f2434cf9961bbfb9976fbf8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.494亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.369亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.204亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+103%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.569亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.504亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1.603亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+123%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddcdf6bbeb330e4f7aedb5b42cc6d80\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"558\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum预计第一财季:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里涉及几个关键技术方向:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">光电</a>共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768ce2f9eee454621da8860203a41d52\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"552\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI光通信需求强劲,Lumentum上季营收翻倍,本季指引更超预期,债务重组致超70亿巨亏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-12 07:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">光通信概念股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LITE\">Lumentum Holdings Inc.</a>公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e936f6e090de6b9298ace1014f439e3c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">几个核心指标如下:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">指标</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Q4实际</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场预期</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上年同期/同比</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">净营收</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">10.1亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9.88亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.807亿美元</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.23美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2.97美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+267%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4.064亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP毛利率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">50.4%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+1260bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">36.6%</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+2160bp</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP净利润</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.263亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">—</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">同比+415%<br/><br/></p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210ae5f2434cf9961bbfb9976fbf8e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:</p><table><colgroup><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/><col style=\"min-width: 25px;\"/></colgroup><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.494亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">6.369亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.204亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+103%</p></td></tr><tr><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">系统</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.569亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3.504亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1.603亿美元</p></td><td colspan=\"1\" rowspan=\"1\"><p style=\"text-align: left;\">约+123%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ddcdf6bbeb330e4f7aedb5b42cc6d80\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"558\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum预计第一财季:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这里涉及几个关键技术方向:</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">光电</a>共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/768ce2f9eee454621da8860203a41d52\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"552\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc0d2da7f88b0404ecb8e133f17b5d8","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LITX":"Tradr 2X Long LITE Daily ETF","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0205194284.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LAZR":"Tema Photonics & Optical ETF","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0012050646.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","BK4020":"通信设备","LITE":"Lumentum Holdings Inc.","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0106261612.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALLER COMPANIES IMPACT \"A\" ACC","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0205193047.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US SMALL & MID-CAP EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","EGGY":"NESTYIELD DYNAMIC INCOME SHIELD ETF","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0240878834.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" (USD) INC AV"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779219","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658946942","content_text":"第四财季,Lumentum营收同比增109%、非GAAP口径ESP增267%至3.23美元,同口径毛利率略超50%,组件与系统业务营收均翻倍增长;非GAAP口径净利润同比增415%,但GAAP口径净亏损72亿美元、EPS为-84.65美元,源于一次性非现金债务清偿损失78亿美元。第一财季,营收指引中值同比增135%、较市场预期高8%,EPS中值282%、较预期高16%。盘后股价先跌超5%,转涨超5%后又曾转跌。光通信概念股 Lumentum Holdings Inc.公布的上一财季业绩和本季指引整体增长比华尔街预期的还迅猛,体现了AI光通信需求的强劲推动势头。美东时间11日周二美股盘后,Lumentum公布,截至2026年6月27日的公司第四财季,净营收同比增长逾一倍至10.1亿美元,较分析师预期高约2%;非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益(EPS)同比大增267%至3.23美元,较分析师预期高近9%。利润率表现同样亮眼。第四财季非GAAP口径毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点;调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,对应EBITDA利润率约40%。非GAAP净利润同比增长415%至3.263亿美元。不过,因Lumentum将部分可转换票据转换为股权、产生一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿亏损,第四财季GAAP口径下录得净亏损为72亿美元。Lumentum本财季的指引明显强于预期。公司预计第一财季营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,指引区间中值较市场预期高逾8%;调整后EPS预计4.05至4.35美元,指引中值较市场预期高逾16%;非GAAP经营利润率预计39.5%至40.5%。这意味着公司不仅收入继续加速,利润率也有望迈向40%附近。Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston表示,第四次财季业绩展现了广泛的市场进展,关键增长动力——如OCS解决方案和云模块业务也已开始贡献增量。“对超高功率CPO激光器的需求增长、ELS模块的首批订单,以及公司在NPO领域广泛的业务布局,均表明光学技术正开始渗透至机架内连接领域,这将显著扩大我们的光学技术潜在市场规模(TAM)。”财报公布后,周二收涨近0.9%的Lumentum的股价并未直线上行,而是剧烈震荡,盘后先曾转跌并一度跌超5%,后很快转涨,盘后曾涨超5%,后又转跌。股价表现反映出市场一方面认可AI光通信需求和强劲指引,另一方面也在消化GAAP巨亏、前期预期偏高和估值压力。分析认为,股价盘后波动本质上是三股力量在拉扯:AI光通信需求与强指引带来的基本面上修,GAAP巨亏数字带来的短线冲击,以及高估值、高预期资产在财报季常见的获利了结。后续股价能否稳定,市场大概率会继续盯住第一财季指引兑现情况、40%左右经营利润率能否维持,以及CPO、ELS、NPO相关需求从早期订单走向规模化收入的速度。第四财季盈利增长远超营收 EPS同比增近三倍Lumentum第四财季净营收10.1亿美元,高于市场预期的约9.9亿美元,也远高于上年同期的4.807亿美元。按同比口径计算,公司营收增长约109%,意味着这一季度收入规模已经超过去年同期的两倍。虽然相较预期的超出幅度约2%左右,并不算“爆炸性大超”,但考虑到公司所在的AI光通信赛道已被市场高度关注,能够继续超预期本身仍然具有信号意义。第四财季调整后EPS为3.23美元,高于预期的2.97美元,同比增幅267%。这说明增长并非单纯来自收入扩张,利润弹性更强。这份财报最核心的变化,是Lumentum的盈利模型正在快速改善:毛利率突破50%,经营利润率升至36%以上,说明高端光通信产品需求、规模效应和产品组合改善正在共同释放利润杠杆。几个核心指标如下:指标Q4实际市场预期上年同期/同比净营收10.1亿美元9.88亿美元4.807亿美元调整后EPS3.23美元2.97美元同比+267%调整后EBITDA4.064亿美元——非GAAP毛利率50.4%—同比+1260bp非GAAP经营利润率36.6%—同比+2160bp非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元—同比+415%组件与系统业务双双超预期,系统业务同比增速更快分业务看,Lumentum第四财季组件与零部件业务营收6.494亿美元,高于分析师预期的6.369亿美元,上年同期为3.204亿美元,同比增幅约103%。系统业务营收3.569亿美元,同样高于市场预期的3.504亿美元,上年同期为1.603亿美元,同比增幅约123%。也就是说,两大业务都实现了翻倍增长:业务Q4营收市场预期上年同期同比增速组件与零部件6.494亿美元6.369亿美元3.204亿美元约+103%系统3.569亿美元3.504亿美元1.603亿美元约+123%组件与零部件仍是公司收入基本盘,占总收入约六成以上;系统业务虽然规模较小,但同比增速更快,显示需求扩张并非集中在单一产品线。对光通信公司而言,这一点很重要。AI数据中心建设带来的不仅是单一器件需求,而是从激光器、光器件到系统级解决方案的整体拉动。Lumentum本季度两个分部均超预期,强化了“AI网络升级带动光学需求外溢”的逻辑。指引成最大亮点 本财季营收中值同比增135%如果说第四财季本身是“稳稳超预期”,那么下一财季指引才是这份财报真正点燃市场情绪的部分。Lumentum预计第一财季:营收12.3亿至12.8亿美元,市场预期11.6亿美元;调整后EPS为4.05至4.35美元,市场预期3.61美元;非GAAP经营利润率为39.5%至40.5%。按指引中值计算,第一财季营收约12.55亿美元,相当于同比增长135%,较第四财季环比增长约24%;较市场预期高出约8%。调整后EPS中值约4.20美元,同比增长约282%,环比增长约30%,较预期高出约16%。这意味着公司给出的不是“小幅延续增长”,而是收入和盈利继续明显上台阶。尤其是非GAAP经营利润率指引达到39.5%至40.5%,中值约40%,相比第四财季36.6%再提升约340个基点。公司管理层称正在“比计划提前超过一个季度达到目标模型”,这句话背后对应的是:收入规模扩大、产品组合改善和运营杠杆释放的速度都快于原先预期。毛利率突破50%,Lumentum不只是“卖得更多”Lumentum第四财季非GAAP毛利率达到50.4%,同比提升1260个基点;非GAAP经营利润率36.6%,同比提升2160个基点。这组数据说明,Lumentum的业绩改善并非单纯依靠收入翻倍带来的规模扩张,而是利润质量同步改善。在AI光通信供应链中,市场最看重的往往不仅是订单增长,还包括产品是否具备较高技术壁垒、是否能维持较高ASP和毛利率。Lumentum本季度毛利率升至50%以上,经营利润率逼近40%,对于市场理解其AI光学业务的盈利能力是重要支撑。调整后EBITDA为4.064亿美元,占营收约40.2%;非GAAP净利润3.263亿美元,占营收约32.3%。在硬件链条公司中,这样的利润率水平意味着公司正在受益于较强的产品定价能力和经营杠杆。CPO、ELS、NPO:光学需求正向机架内互联渗透除了数字本身,管理层关于需求结构的表述同样值得关注。Lumentum提到,超高功率CPO激光器需求增加、ELS模块获得初始订单,以及NPO相关合作范围扩大,是“光学开始渗透机架内连接”的早期信号,并显著扩大公司的光学可服务市场。这里涉及几个关键技术方向:CPO(Co-Packaged Optics,光电共封装):将光学引擎更靠近交换芯片,降低高速电信号传输损耗和功耗;ELS(External Laser Source,外置激光源模块):为CPO等架构提供外部激光源;NPO(Near-Packaged Optics,近封装光学):介于传统可插拔光模块和CPO之间的一类近芯片光互联方案。AI集群规模扩大后,数据中心内部的带宽、功耗和延迟压力快速上升。传统电连接在更高速率、更高密度场景下面临瓶颈,光互联开始从机架间、交换机间连接进一步向机架内、近芯片方向渗透。这也是Lumentum这份财报最具想象力的部分:如果光学需求不再局限于传统数据中心互联,而是进入机架内连接和近封装架构,公司潜在市场空间将被重新评估。不过,Lumentum也用了“初期迹象这一表述,说明这些方向仍处于早期验证和订单转化阶段。市场后续会重点关注这些CPO、ELS、NPO机会能否从初始订单和项目接洽,转化为可持续的规模化收入。GAAP巨亏来自一次性非现金债务清偿损失财报中最刺眼的数字,是GAAP口径下净亏损将近72亿美元、同口径EPS为-84.65美元。Lumentum说明,这主要包含一笔78亿美元的一次性非现金债务清偿损失。也就是说,这并非由本季度经营恶化导致,而是债务清偿相关的会计处理造成的GAAP层面巨额亏损。这也是为什么同一份财报里会同时出现两个看似矛盾的信号:GAAP口径下表面看是巨亏,非GAAP净利润却同比大增415%至3.263亿美元。对基本面投资者而言,更能反映当季经营状况的是非GAAP利润、毛利率、经营利润率和下一季指引。但对盘后交易和量化交易而言,GAAP巨亏标题本身很容易引发第一轮抛压,尤其是在盘后流动性较低的环境下。换句话说,Lumentum盘后最初一度跌超5%,很可能与GAAP巨亏、前期股价预期较高以及“财报兑现后卖出”情绪有关,而不完全是对经营数据的否定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LITX":0.6,"LITE":1.98,"EGGY":0.6,"LAZR":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":935662292,"gmtCreate":1573574032716,"gmtModify":1704726296705,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>除非财务造假,找不到看空阿里的理由。A股一堆消费股20%多营收增速,都能有40倍市盈率。竞争对手大东子营收增速也掉到30%以下了,还能有56倍估值。阿里到现在还有40%的增速,市盈率20多倍???要是在A股,不被炒到万亿美金至少也要7、8000万吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>除非财务造假,找不到看空阿里的理由。A股一堆消费股20%多营收增速,都能有40倍市盈率。竞争对手大东子营收增速也掉到30%以下了,还能有56倍估值。阿里到现在还有40%的增速,市盈率20多倍???要是在A股,不被炒到万亿美金至少也要7、8000万吧。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$除非财务造假,找不到看空阿里的理由。A股一堆消费股20%多营收增速,都能有40倍市盈率。竞争对手大东子营收增速也掉到30%以下了,还能有56倍估值。阿里到现在还有40%的增速,市盈率20多倍???要是在A股,不被炒到万亿美金至少也要7、8000万吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/935662292","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521790542467421","authorId":"3521790542467421","name":"想在SM公司出道做偶像","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7223712d1a2c15cd95fe7c9d2319d82c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3521790542467421","idStr":"3521790542467421"},"content":"那就是个微博博主的推测 这种推测找个公司一周能发5条 说明不了任何问题 完全不用担心","text":"那就是个微博博主的推测 这种推测找个公司一周能发5条 说明不了任何问题 完全不用担心","html":"那就是个微博博主的推测 这种推测找个公司一周能发5条 说明不了任何问题 完全不用担心"},{"author":{"id":"3494420044734025","authorId":"3494420044734025","name":"Lady_Susu","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d791c1ab2e34521f89903325bcabf310","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3494420044734025","idStr":"3494420044734025"},"content":"长期看多,短期来看,反正感觉应该打新","text":"长期看多,短期来看,反正感觉应该打新","html":"长期看多,短期来看,反正感觉应该打新"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":937269081,"gmtCreate":1575037446043,"gmtModify":1704728996182,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>慌什么,主联补个缺口罢了。。玩儿这个就要做到手里一直有钱,要不很容易万劫不复","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UGAZ\">$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$</a>慌什么,主联补个缺口罢了。。玩儿这个就要做到手里一直有钱,要不很容易万劫不复","text":"$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$慌什么,主联补个缺口罢了。。玩儿这个就要做到手里一直有钱,要不很容易万劫不复","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/937269081","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4943,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450578137237105","authorId":"3450578137237105","name":"pxczy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dd34bea9547dee53d57a3a91497bd05","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3450578137237105","idStr":"3450578137237105"},"content":"今天要血洗了 石油怎么也突然崩了","text":"今天要血洗了 石油怎么也突然崩了","html":"今天要血洗了 石油怎么也突然崩了"},{"author":{"id":"3490074433062883","authorId":"3490074433062883","name":"我是昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c29db5a91e7d800235ae016bb5de7f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3490074433062883","idStr":"3490074433062883"},"content":"为什么手里一直有钱?","text":"为什么手里一直有钱?","html":"为什么手里一直有钱?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916896814,"gmtCreate":1579280361338,"gmtModify":1704339593706,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$持仓将近一年半终于回本了,万幸中间补了一次仓[开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a6ae19b3b6d8fdd5e351d2fd410d4c","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916896814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492820110824791","authorId":"3492820110824791","name":"CWZY1800W","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c234b41399e94cec962552f2fabc22c5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492820110824791","idStr":"3492820110824791"},"content":"所以还在持有吗","text":"所以还在持有吗","html":"所以还在持有吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964988410,"gmtCreate":1584115313930,"gmtModify":1704353193311,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>","listText":" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a>这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$标普500ETF(SPY)$这次和08年不一样的,08年是金融系统信用危机一下子破裂。这次貌似是以疫情和石油为契机造成的流动性问题,很多杠杆资金爆仓导致。还没上升到信用风险爆发的地步,指数应该不至于腰斩。不过,这次最坏的可能是面临全球经济衰退,各类资产都不涨,伸头是一刀,缩头也是一刀。。。波动率这点儿涨幅蚊子肉,就是晒着玩儿[流泪]$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ddc1f4ae3e424a26907325924382512","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964988410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522707023542855","authorId":"3522707023542855","name":"爬行者","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3522707023542855","idStr":"3522707023542855"},"content":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发","text":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发","html":"如果美国全面进入紧急状态,医保覆盖不能兜底,大量停工停产,按美国人的储蓄率,个人信用危机同样全面爆发"},{"author":{"id":"3496678545901398","authorId":"3496678545901398","name":"夏夜001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54e4fd2448e42634bd2798218441128d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3496678545901398","idStr":"3496678545901398"},"content":"要不要我带带你","text":"要不要我带带你","html":"要不要我带带你"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943742788,"gmtCreate":1594726607844,"gmtModify":1704206528968,"author":{"id":"3448502281011258","authorId":"3448502281011258","name":"Sun99811224","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65142e690c9f87150fb0b3daee99b59c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3448502281011258","idStr":"3448502281011258"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$作为整车厂,护城河深度值得思考。从传统车厂来看,护城河非常脆弱,大厂之间产品力相差不大,竞争极为激烈,一点点口碑问题就会造成品牌力严重折价,比如大众。未来特斯拉一家独大的竞争格局大概率不会出现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943742788","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493450951386460","authorId":"3493450951386460","name":"挥刀自宫要果断","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493450951386460","idStr":"3493450951386460"},"content":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。","text":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。","html":"重资产公司虽有先发优势但是技术壁垒太浅后面竞争激烈,也就创业公司成长性还可以。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}