$美国原油ETF(U_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

两只哈拉
2020-04-19

$美国原油ETF(USO)$分析了下历史数据，理解理解WTI合约出现contango时，对USO价格影响：

第一，WTI合约出现contango的时期，USO大概率会出现较大损耗，比如2008年次贷危机后油价反弹阶段；

第二，合约没有contango的时期，USO几乎没有损耗，比如2016年到现在这段时间。而且USO对WTI主连价格的变化跟踪的非常好；

第三，合约转期对USO的净值是没有影响的，USO之所以损耗，是因为转期后新的主连合约价格向更低的现货价格靠拢(contango时期)；

第四，从2007年到现在，出现contango的几率比backwardation高;

有不对的地方，欢迎指正

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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你终将富有
·2020-04-19
作者，请教一下，uso这种的是不是和买正股一样，没有合约到期什么的？而且还不会退市？
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- 老贾这个骗子:
  会有损耗
  2020-04-19
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- 两只哈拉:
  是的，跟股票一样
  2020-04-19
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6540f8c1
·2020-04-19
请问除了USO，还有靠谱的标的嘛
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- 6540f8c1回复两只哈拉:
  谢谢！
  2020-04-20
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- 两只哈拉:
  搏短期USO，长期推荐XLE
  2020-04-19
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teresawu
·2020-04-19
Uso 还能持有吗。5.00价格
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