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This Year's Most Buoyant Sector Was a Win for Value Investors -- Heard on the Street -- WSJ 今年最活跃的行业对价值投资者来说是一场胜利--《华尔街日报》街头传闻

Dow Jones Global News - Jul 07, 2023 06:30:00 道琼斯全球新闻-2023年7月7日06:30:00

By Spencer Jakab 由斯潘塞·雅卡布（Spencer Jakab）撰写

Ask a retail investor what this year's best-performing industry has been, and he or she probably would guess artificial intelligence, electric vehicles or social media. 问一位零售投资者今年表现最佳的行业是什么，他或她可能会猜测人工智能、电动汽车或社交媒体。

While the likes of Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla and Facebook owner Meta Platforms have had gaudy returns and grabbed headlines, the strongest group of stocks overall has been cruise lines. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean Cruises are all in the top 10 among large companies and took the top three spots in the S&P 500 during the second quarter. The reason: Low expectations. 尽管$英伟达(NVDA)$ 、Advanced Micro Devices、$特斯拉(TSLA)$  和Facebook的所有者Meta Platforms的回报率惊人，并且成为媒体关注的焦点，但整体上表现最强劲的股票组合是邮轮公司。$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$ 、挪威邮轮控股和皇家加勒比邮轮公司都位居大型公司前十名，并在第二季度的标普500指数中占据前三名。原因在于市场对这些股票的预期较低。

Carnival, the largest and most financially troubled of the big-three operators, has led the pack in terms of share price return, up 134% year-to-date to $18.86, despite being the slowest to return to profitability after the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic. Early this year Chief Executive Officer Josh Weinstein had flagged a "phenomenal" wave season -- the main period for bookings -- yet analysts were mostly skeptical. At the end of 2022 more than two-thirds of ratings tracked by FactSet were "hold" or "sell," and the average target price as recently as February was just $10.38. 嘉年华邮轮是三大运营商中最大、财务状况最困难的一家，尽管在新冠疫情肆虐后最后恢复盈利能力，但其股价回报率在今年迄今已上涨134%，达到18.86美元，领先于其他运营商。今年初，首席执行官乔希·温斯坦曾预测“非凡”的预订旺季，但分析师们大多持怀疑态度。根据FactSet追踪的评级数据显示，到2022年底，超过三分之二的评级为“持有”或“卖出”，而就在今年2月，平均目标价仅为10.38美元。

Analysts didn't doubt the public's desire to go on cruises again, but they were nervous about the financial ballast cruise companies picked up when their industry shut down. Carnival went from having net debt of an already high $13 billion at the end of its 2019 fiscal year to more than $30 billion at the end of fiscal 2022. They also fretted about middle class tourists' propensity to splurge on vacations as they were pinched by high inflation, despite resilient cruise ship occupancy during past downturns. 分析师们并不怀疑公众再次乘坐游轮的愿望，但他们对游轮公司在行业停摆时所承担的财务负担感到紧张。嘉年华公司从2019财年末的净债务已经高达130亿美元，增加到2022财年末的超过300亿美元。尽管过去的经济衰退期间游轮的入住率表现强劲，但他们也担心中产阶级游客在高通胀的压力下是否还会挥霍在度假上。

It was a rare case of Wall Street being too cautious about a pandemic rebound. 这是华尔街对疫情反弹过于谨慎的罕见案例。

By late last year it seemed reasonable that all three big cruise lines would have ample cash flow to service upcoming debt maturities and that they were being given a boost by falling fuel prices. 到去年年底，所有三大邮轮公司似乎都有足够的现金流来偿还即将到期的债务，并且他们还因燃油价格下降而得到了一些提振。

Even with a multiyear road to reduce their leverage to prepandemic levels following several Federal Reserve rate increases, that left their equity looking sharply undervalued. When a sector leads the stock market in terms of performance, it is usually because near-term profit expectations rise, but current-year forecasts have actually dropped for two of the three cruise line operators since the start of the year. This time it was because investors, followed by analysts, suddenly realized they were staring at a bargain. 即使经历了数年的降低杠杆水平的道路，以恢复到疫情前的水平，这导致他们的股权被严重低估。当一个行业在股市表现上领先时，通常是因为近期利润预期上升，但自年初以来，三家邮轮公司中有两家的当年预测实际上下降了。这一次是因为投资者和分析师突然意识到他们正在面对一个便宜货。

For example, after meeting with executives of all three companies, Bank of America's Andrew Didora raised his target price on Carnival last month to $20 from $11 a share. Despite what will be a bloated balance sheet for many years, he pointed out that Carnival's debt-adjusted market value per berth was still cheap compared with pre-Covid levels even after recent gains. 例如，在与这三家公司的高管会面后，美国银行的安德鲁·迪多拉上个月将嘉年华的目标股价从每股11美元上调至20美元。尽管在未来几年内，嘉年华的资产负债表将会过度膨胀，但他指出，即使在最近的涨幅之后，嘉年华每个舱位的债务调整市值仍然相对便宜，与疫情前的水平相比。

Moreover, those berths are on what is a newer, more fuel-efficient fleet than before the pandemic. Didora notes that the company's recent per-berth profitability guidance suggests that its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization could reach $6.7 billion by fiscal 2026. 此外，这些卧铺所在的船队比疫情前更加新型和燃油效率更高。Didora指出，公司最近发布的每个卧铺的盈利指导显示，到2026财年，其息税前利润、折旧和摊销可能达到67亿美元。

Cruise lines' performance should be reassuring to value investors. What seems like a dollar can fetch 60 cents for a frustratingly long time in the stock market, and stock analysts will rarely be the ones to shout it from the rooftops. Eventually, though, your ship could come in. 邮轮公司的表现应该让价值投资者感到安心。在股市中，一个美元似乎可以买到60美分，这种令人沮丧的情况可能会持续很长时间，而股票分析师很少会大声宣扬这一点。然而，最终，你的机会可能会来临。

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