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- Mr_CobblerMr_Cobbler
  ·2020-05-09
  人家是资本主义市场，秒杀社会主义。
  非农数据如此糟糕，美股涨势为何与现实“背离”？
  北京时间5月8日晚间，美国劳工部如预期般交出了一份“史上最惨”的非农就业数据。官方宣布两千多万美国消费者在过去一个月内失去工作的同时，美国股市却延续反弹行情，今日开盘后三大股市涨幅均扩大至1%。毫无
  非农数据如此糟糕，美股涨势为何与现实“背离”？
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- Mr_CobblerMr_Cobbler
  ·2020-04-08
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$看好老虎🐯
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- Mr_CobblerMr_Cobbler
  ·2020-04-08
  $蔚来(NIO)$蔚来，未来可期！
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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-05-09/doc-iirczymk0618668.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2034658906","content_text":"北京时间5月8日晚间，美国劳工部如预期般交出了一份“史上最惨”的非农就业数据。官方宣布两千多万美国消费者在过去一个月内失去工作的同时，美国股市却延续反弹行情，今日开盘后三大股市涨幅均扩大至1%。\n毫无疑问，过去这一周的走势再次说明了一个道理：股市是对未来价值的贴现，而非农数据仅仅代表着过去已经发生的事情。然而，投资者需要警惕的是，对于疫情结束后的经济复苏乐观并没有错，但过于乐观的情绪也会为下一次市场波动埋下伏笔。\n本轮反弹中，在科技龙头带头冲锋下纳指领跑美国三大股指，触及“疫情底”后短短三周就回到了距离历史高点仅有7.5%的位置，两个数字的区别在于美国失业率从3.5%飙升至14.7%。按照白宫经济顾问库德洛的说法，他预计到五月失业率可能会达到25%。\n短短三周时间，纳指距离历史高点只有7%，来源：TradingView\n华尔街找到的“反弹理由”\n首先，美国各州近期不断推出复工指引带动了经济回归正常的预期。包括特朗普在内的“复工鹰派”均表示这次经济停顿是“人为”的，一旦解封就业岗位就将回来。\n根据美国政府对4月失业人员进行的调查显示，有78%的受访者表示他们的失业只是“暂时现象”。高盛策略分析师Jan Hatzius指出，如果大部分的失业数据都集中在（无薪假期）部分，当经济开始复苏的时候就业市场的反弹幅度将会更大。根据过去衰退时期的经验，失业者会回到他们之前工作的岗位上。\n此外，从近期的财报和公司走势表现来看，疫情冲击主要集中在休闲娱乐等服务业，对于美股权重科技股而言影响有限，甚至出现了强者更强的局面。许多此时进场的投资者正是在“赌”政府禁令解除后美国消费者重拾疫情之前的消费热情（以及后续政策面出台更多救市措施）。\n而说到救市政策，美联储在近期的会议纪要中已经明确将会维持零利率政策到“疫情影响彻底结束”，不论是否会进入“负利率时期”，目前这种长期接近零利率的状态也会对权益资产价格提供支撑。\n反对声音：多头乐观过了头\n虽然本周美股接近拿下四根阳线多少使得质疑乐观消息的声音有些无力，但并不意味着毫无参考的意义。\n短期来看，对于美国股市后续走势最大的潜在利空仍然是疫情进展。虽然美国各州目前一派复工复产的热闹氛围，但每日新增病例的数量从四月中旬开始一直维持在2.5-3万人区间内，难言“在安全条件下实现复工复产”。\n来源：财联社、Wind\n更重要的是，美国州政府以及更低级别的地方政府均有公共政策的自由裁量权，同时美国民众是否遵照卫生指引也存在疑问。如果疫情出现反复，即便没有上升到重启封锁命令，也会对经济复苏的速度造成严重影响。毕竟重启商业设施与消费者安心回归存在着不小的差距。\n此外，就业岗位的恢复也取决于多少企业撑过了这几个月的时间。对于那些倒闭的公司而言，虽然就业岗位会随着新入场的投资逐渐恢复，但这个过程本身就需要一个更长的周期。同时在疫苗和治疗药物方面取得突破性进展前，占美国GDP三分之二的服务业将一直被掣肘，由此会造成多大的“坑”，目前谁也说不准。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921556493,"gmtCreate":1586335871712,"gmtModify":1704360905232,"author":{"id":"3547987050787555","authorId":"3547987050787555","name":"Mr_Cobbler","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c4775681652e493e577f7aa80473243","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547987050787555","authorIdStr":"3547987050787555"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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