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- bestwwbestww
  ·04-19
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100马上到
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- bestwwbestww
  ·04-17
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100接
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- bestwwbestww
  ·04-05
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100
  953 评论
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- bestwwbestww
  ·04-03
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接
  1,487 评论
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- bestwwbestww
  ·03-22
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 等100接
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- bestwwbestww
  ·03-12
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接
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- bestwwbestww
  ·03-06
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 继续等100
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- bestwwbestww
  ·03-05
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接货
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- bestwwbestww
  ·2023-04-18
  说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
  商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？
  假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，
  商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？
  1,438 评论
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- bestwwbestww
  ·2023-03-31
  $Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 空头压不住了
  1,092 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接货","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 100接货","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 100接货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281051925143568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"content":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？","text":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？","html":"15的时候你为什么没接货？非要等到100才接？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":651864662,"gmtCreate":1681764572457,"gmtModify":1681764573905,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541959113846363","authorIdStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651864662","repostId":"1176434265","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176434265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1681739466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176434265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-17 21:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176434265","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为华尔街“最准分析师”的Michael Hartnett——写道：</p><blockquote>你知道什么是商业房地产，它是一条紧紧缠绕在经济周围的蛇，会抑制未来2年的增长。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">阿波罗首席经济学家Torsten Slok则更为直白，他类比了2008年的金融危机，提到美联储可能“陷入恐慌”，然后重新开始量化宽松：</p><blockquote>2008年房地产泡沫破灭后，新房建设下降超过50%，住宅投资拉动GDP增速连续三年下降1%。由于商业地产建设约占住宅投资规模的75%，而且在建的摩天大楼和购物中心较少，破裂的商业地产泡沫可能会拖累未来三年约0.75%的GDP增长。随着商业房地产泡沫破灭，我们很可能进入低增长的三年，类似于我们在2008年房地产泡沫破灭后看到的情况。<strong>也就是说，一旦美联储在今年晚些时候开始降息，利率利率可能会在几年内保持低位，量化宽松政策可能会在2024年回归。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在三月的银行危机中，美联储的确已经展现出了这样的倾向——随着银行业危机发酵，美联储重新大幅投入4000亿美元流动性，美国大小银行准备金水平陡然提高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8153a41311248287a09bc1699c3eabbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这也反映在美联储的资产负债表——<strong>去年一直在收缩的资产负债表，今年三月再次扩大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5c5ea3fbb85ea16145d2b37495f333c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><h2>地产倒塌，拖垮银行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管今年的商业地产与2008年有着诸多不同之处，但随着区域性银行成为了2008年金融危机之后商业地产的主要参与者，这反而可能牵动另一场系统性风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根大通资产管理策略师Michael Cembalest在其报告中写道：</p><blockquote>乍一看，商业地产的过剩现象在这个周期看起来并不那么糟糕。 商业地产借贷占GDP的比例远远低于上世纪80年代和2000年的两个峰值，商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）市场的承销标准也比2008年之前的好……但是，CMBS在商业地产贷款中所占份额很小，尤其是与（主要是区域性）银行相比，后者在办公、零售、酒店和工业贷款方面的风险敞口更大。<strong>自2015年以来，区域性银行占银行商业地产贷款增量的 90%。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a20c0dda6825fcdb32d71e61464611\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，商业地产，尤其是写字楼的价值正在“一泻千里”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">正如华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提及，曼哈顿写字楼空置率达到了历史最高的16%，旧金山的写字楼空置率则更是高达30%。一项来自斯坦福大学、芝加哥大学和墨西哥自治理工学院的研究显示，在新冠疫情之后，纽约正在经历因远程工作趋势而导致的人均年度支出最大减少。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">地产信息商Green Street估计，<strong>去年写字楼的评估价值下降了25%，是所有房地产类型中的最大评估下降。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd949a0a123d1b07a4ccb0ad9ddf42bd\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"411\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自2020年以来，写字楼租金增长一直远低于其他房地产类型，甚至低于零售业；写字楼租赁活动已回落至疫情低点附近，销售额2022年以来下降了66％。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cembalest测算指出，<strong>如果贷款在当前环境下到期，即使对资本化率、贷款价值比（LTV）和净营业收入（NOI）假设进行轻微的改变，也可能迫使房地产所有者在当前环境下筹集大量昂贵的次级融资</strong>：</p><blockquote>7.5%的债务成本，40%的LTV和-1%的年化NOI下降，最终导致9.75%的资本利率和未来2-3年内写字楼价值比目前水平下降40%。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c265b3d6064f5b777b3a39c6df2e75\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"424\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利的研究指出，到2025年，约有价值1.35-1.46 万亿美元 (30-32%) 的商业地产债务到期，其中银行持有约42-56%的到期债务。银行既是资产的直接贷方，也是机构和非机构CMBS的购买者。银行持有每年到期债务的36-64%，占机构CMBS的近一半和非机构CMBS投资者的10-15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，在面临股权价值全面损失的情况下，股权投资者一直在减少写字楼的敞口也就不足为奇。但不幸的是，对于商业地产贷款人，也就是那些拥有大量商业地产贷款的小银行来说，退出可能不是一件易事，<strong>尤其是占其商业地产贷款总额约20%的写字楼风险敞口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94db6ae109a005612a1d9b3209080f9e\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"886\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，Cembalest还表示，根据摩根大通投资银行进行的一项银行压力测试，假设写字楼贷款拖欠率为21%，零售商业地产贷款拖欠率为15%，两者的回收率约为60%，损失发生在3-5年内（极为保守的假设）。结果是：</p><blockquote>一些较小的区域性银行的一级资本最多会减少30-40个基点。虽然这看起来不是很大，但这个分析假设2022年的拨备前收入水平将在3-5年的损失经历中持续存在。由于客户存款成本的提高和可能出现的经济衰退，许多银行的拨备前收入可能会下降。因此，估计对资本的打击可能要大得多。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n商业地产是倒逼美联储重启QE的“最后一根稻草”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-17 21:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686705","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176434265","content_text":"假如商业地产泡沫再次破裂，距离美联储转向宽松或许也不远了。越来越多的华尔街分析师们开始提出，商业地产将成为美国经济的“定时炸弹”，这关系到的不仅是大小银行，还有广泛的美国经济，而一旦商业地产“暴雷”，紧随其后的很可能是美联储的再次QE（量化宽松）。上周，摩根士丹利和美国银行不约而同在报告中警告商业地产的风险，前者指出美国写字楼和零售商业地产可能将出现30-40%的回撤，而后者的策略师——被称为华尔街“最准分析师”的Michael Hartnett——写道：你知道什么是商业房地产，它是一条紧紧缠绕在经济周围的蛇，会抑制未来2年的增长。阿波罗首席经济学家Torsten Slok则更为直白，他类比了2008年的金融危机，提到美联储可能“陷入恐慌”，然后重新开始量化宽松：2008年房地产泡沫破灭后，新房建设下降超过50%，住宅投资拉动GDP增速连续三年下降1%。由于商业地产建设约占住宅投资规模的75%，而且在建的摩天大楼和购物中心较少，破裂的商业地产泡沫可能会拖累未来三年约0.75%的GDP增长。随着商业房地产泡沫破灭，我们很可能进入低增长的三年，类似于我们在2008年房地产泡沫破灭后看到的情况。也就是说，一旦美联储在今年晚些时候开始降息，利率利率可能会在几年内保持低位，量化宽松政策可能会在2024年回归。在三月的银行危机中，美联储的确已经展现出了这样的倾向——随着银行业危机发酵，美联储重新大幅投入4000亿美元流动性，美国大小银行准备金水平陡然提高。这也反映在美联储的资产负债表——去年一直在收缩的资产负债表，今年三月再次扩大。地产倒塌，拖垮银行尽管今年的商业地产与2008年有着诸多不同之处，但随着区域性银行成为了2008年金融危机之后商业地产的主要参与者，这反而可能牵动另一场系统性风险。摩根大通资产管理策略师Michael Cembalest在其报告中写道：乍一看，商业地产的过剩现象在这个周期看起来并不那么糟糕。 商业地产借贷占GDP的比例远远低于上世纪80年代和2000年的两个峰值，商业抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）市场的承销标准也比2008年之前的好……但是，CMBS在商业地产贷款中所占份额很小，尤其是与（主要是区域性）银行相比，后者在办公、零售、酒店和工业贷款方面的风险敞口更大。自2015年以来，区域性银行占银行商业地产贷款增量的 90%。与此同时，商业地产，尤其是写字楼的价值正在“一泻千里”。正如华尔街见闻稍早时候曾提及，曼哈顿写字楼空置率达到了历史最高的16%，旧金山的写字楼空置率则更是高达30%。一项来自斯坦福大学、芝加哥大学和墨西哥自治理工学院的研究显示，在新冠疫情之后，纽约正在经历因远程工作趋势而导致的人均年度支出最大减少。地产信息商Green Street估计，去年写字楼的评估价值下降了25%，是所有房地产类型中的最大评估下降。自2020年以来，写字楼租金增长一直远低于其他房地产类型，甚至低于零售业；写字楼租赁活动已回落至疫情低点附近，销售额2022年以来下降了66％。Cembalest测算指出，如果贷款在当前环境下到期，即使对资本化率、贷款价值比（LTV）和净营业收入（NOI）假设进行轻微的改变，也可能迫使房地产所有者在当前环境下筹集大量昂贵的次级融资：7.5%的债务成本，40%的LTV和-1%的年化NOI下降，最终导致9.75%的资本利率和未来2-3年内写字楼价值比目前水平下降40%。摩根士丹利的研究指出，到2025年，约有价值1.35-1.46 万亿美元 (30-32%) 的商业地产债务到期，其中银行持有约42-56%的到期债务。银行既是资产的直接贷方，也是机构和非机构CMBS的购买者。银行持有每年到期债务的36-64%，占机构CMBS的近一半和非机构CMBS投资者的10-15%。因此，在面临股权价值全面损失的情况下，股权投资者一直在减少写字楼的敞口也就不足为奇。但不幸的是，对于商业地产贷款人，也就是那些拥有大量商业地产贷款的小银行来说，退出可能不是一件易事，尤其是占其商业地产贷款总额约20%的写字楼风险敞口。最后，Cembalest还表示，根据摩根大通投资银行进行的一项银行压力测试，假设写字楼贷款拖欠率为21%，零售商业地产贷款拖欠率为15%，两者的回收率约为60%，损失发生在3-5年内（极为保守的假设）。结果是：一些较小的区域性银行的一级资本最多会减少30-40个基点。虽然这看起来不是很大，但这个分析假设2022年的拨备前收入水平将在3-5年的损失经历中持续存在。由于客户存款成本的提高和可能出现的经济衰退，许多银行的拨备前收入可能会下降。因此，估计对资本的打击可能要大得多。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659763288,"gmtCreate":1680251549444,"gmtModify":1680251550507,"author":{"id":"3541959113846363","authorId":"3541959113846363","name":"bestww","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541959113846363","authorIdStr":"3541959113846363"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>空头压不住了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a>空头压不住了","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 空头压不住了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659763288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}