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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2020-08-24
  确实如此
  华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？
  在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是20
  华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？
  1,553 评论
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2020-05-18
  $达美航空(DAL)$起飞吧！看好你！[财迷]
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2020-01-08
  不用看，肯定是伊朗有动作了……[微笑]$标普500ETF(SPY)$$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$$苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2019-12-31
  控得一手好盘，缺口已补上，2019圆满收官！2020，拭目以待！$上证指数(000001.SH)$
  1,534 评论
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2019-10-22
  $苹果(AAPL)$$摩根大通(JPM)$双双创新高，是凤凰涅槃还是最后的疯狂？[鬼脸]
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2019-10-17
  脱欧就这么喜大普奔嘛？[惊讶]$苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)$$巴克莱银行(BCS)$$汇丰(HSBC)$
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- Alpha策略者Alpha策略者
  ·2019-10-11
  $苹果(AAPL)$盘前股价创新高，就看今夜中美谈判的结果了！
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08:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2061839902","media":"新浪财经","summary":"在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是20","content":"<p>在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。</p><p>3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是2019年美国GDP的近7成。</p><p>在如此剧烈的反弹面前，空头们纷纷黯然退场。据彭博报道，目前美国对冲基金的空头头寸是16年来的最低水平。尽管面对经济衰退、企业利润停滞和总统大选前景不佳等不利因素，原本持怀疑态度的专业投资者也放弃逆势而为，开始买入股票。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的数据显示，在八月初，标准普尔500指数的平均空头利息仅占市值的1.8%，这是自2004年以来的最低水平。除能源以外的所有主要板块的看空头寸都在过去15年来的最低位。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/78/w479h399/20200823/9680-iyaiihm3467202.png\" tg-width=\"479\" tg-height=\"399\"></p><p>（来源：FactSet和高盛）</p><p>无论在何时，做空永远是一件不容易的事。但是，空头的退场不代表着关于市场泡沫的争议已有定论。<b>事实甚至相反，空头平仓反而进一步推动市场上涨，酝酿了更大的泡沫的形成。</b></p><p>回想2000年的互联网泡沫时期，当时绝大多数对冲基金在1998年和1999年两年中，只有五个星期没有在做空标准普尔500期货。然而，他们都在2000年因为市场的疯狂上涨被迫平仓，承受了巨额损失。</p><p>接下来，才是市场的崩盘。20年前互联网泡沫破碎之后，纳斯达克跌幅超过70%，标普500也下跌近50%。</p><p>这次空头回补（short covering）对于市场的影响尤其明显。卖空者押注股票价格会下跌，几个月前借入和卖出股票，现在由于市场涨势凶猛，只能回购股票以平仓其现有的空头头寸。</p><p>自3月份市场触底以来，高盛一篮子“最不受欢迎的股票”价格几乎翻了一番，涨幅几乎是标普500指数的两倍。Charlie McElligott公司的追踪商品交易顾问（CTA）基金的模型显示，3月9日全球股票期货的 “最大空头”中，后来已有约7000亿美元的空头头寸现在转为净多头。这都说明了空头们相继被迫平仓，加剧了股票的上涨。</p><p>一旦大多数空头完成头寸平仓并回购股票，由空头回补推动的反弹趋势也会减弱。现在的状况有些类似2000年互联网泡沫破碎前夕的场景，当所有的空头都“绝种”了，意味着所有人都已买入，市场情绪极为乐观，美股估值处于极端高位，但失去了进一步上涨的动能。</p><p>2000年席勒市盈率一度达到40倍，市场一片欢腾，而如今的席勒市盈率在31倍左右，虽然处于历史高位但仍然低于互联网泡沫时期的最高书评。大家想知道的问题是，市场还有进一步上涨的空间吗？</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/683/w465h218/20200823/e370-iyaiihm3467837.png\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"218\"></p><p>（席勒市盈率）</p><p>值得注意的是，乐观的市场情绪和历史高估值水平并不意味着市场面临下行风险。1998年初时，席勒市盈率超过30倍，市场仍然继续上涨，这是因为当时经济基本面仍然向好，企业利润率仍有增长空间，因此市场持续上涨至2000年，经济面临衰退风险，这才最终崩盘。</p><p>今天美国面临的情形与1998年截然不同。经济已经陷入衰退，尚未出现复苏迹象，就业持续恶化，收入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HX\">和信贷</a>这两个美国居民消费的来源均出现严重问题，经济复苏正在失去动能；加之政府救助不力，开始削减和延迟对普通群众的补助，使其消费能力更加受限，对基建等公共投资也迟迟不行动，更加阻碍经济复苏。这一系列后果最终将在企业盈利中体现出来，目前投资者对于盈利V型反弹的预期大概率将破灭。</p><p>在这样的背景下，金融市场依靠流动性与市场情绪推动，却与基本面严重脱钩，泡沫正在进一步加重，风险依然高企。历次经济衰退中，每每泡沫吹起之后都会破碎，股市最终都会被基本面拉回现实。</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街空头已“绝种”，美股市场泡沫论也退场了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-24 08:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-08-23/doc-iivhvpwy2580758.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是2019年美国GDP的近7成。在如此剧烈的反弹面前，空头们纷纷黯然退场。据彭博报道，目前美国对冲基金的空头头寸是16年来的最低水平。尽管面对经济衰退、企业利润停滞和总统大选前景不佳等不利因素，原本持怀疑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-08-23/doc-iivhvpwy2580758.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645ed615aa2b041257c1347b443010ec","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-08-23/doc-iivhvpwy2580758.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2061839902","content_text":"在过去的一个季度中，美股市场上几乎所有原本看空的基金经理都开始看涨，市场情绪极其乐观。简单来说，“空头都死绝了”。3月暴跌见底以来，标普500指数已经反弹了52%，整体市值增加了13万亿美元，约是2019年美国GDP的近7成。在如此剧烈的反弹面前，空头们纷纷黯然退场。据彭博报道，目前美国对冲基金的空头头寸是16年来的最低水平。尽管面对经济衰退、企业利润停滞和总统大选前景不佳等不利因素，原本持怀疑态度的专业投资者也放弃逆势而为，开始买入股票。高盛的数据显示，在八月初，标准普尔500指数的平均空头利息仅占市值的1.8%，这是自2004年以来的最低水平。除能源以外的所有主要板块的看空头寸都在过去15年来的最低位。（来源：FactSet和高盛）无论在何时，做空永远是一件不容易的事。但是，空头的退场不代表着关于市场泡沫的争议已有定论。事实甚至相反，空头平仓反而进一步推动市场上涨，酝酿了更大的泡沫的形成。回想2000年的互联网泡沫时期，当时绝大多数对冲基金在1998年和1999年两年中，只有五个星期没有在做空标准普尔500期货。然而，他们都在2000年因为市场的疯狂上涨被迫平仓，承受了巨额损失。接下来，才是市场的崩盘。20年前互联网泡沫破碎之后，纳斯达克跌幅超过70%，标普500也下跌近50%。这次空头回补（short covering）对于市场的影响尤其明显。卖空者押注股票价格会下跌，几个月前借入和卖出股票，现在由于市场涨势凶猛，只能回购股票以平仓其现有的空头头寸。自3月份市场触底以来，高盛一篮子“最不受欢迎的股票”价格几乎翻了一番，涨幅几乎是标普500指数的两倍。Charlie McElligott公司的追踪商品交易顾问（CTA）基金的模型显示，3月9日全球股票期货的 “最大空头”中，后来已有约7000亿美元的空头头寸现在转为净多头。这都说明了空头们相继被迫平仓，加剧了股票的上涨。一旦大多数空头完成头寸平仓并回购股票，由空头回补推动的反弹趋势也会减弱。现在的状况有些类似2000年互联网泡沫破碎前夕的场景，当所有的空头都“绝种”了，意味着所有人都已买入，市场情绪极为乐观，美股估值处于极端高位，但失去了进一步上涨的动能。2000年席勒市盈率一度达到40倍，市场一片欢腾，而如今的席勒市盈率在31倍左右，虽然处于历史高位但仍然低于互联网泡沫时期的最高书评。大家想知道的问题是，市场还有进一步上涨的空间吗？（席勒市盈率）值得注意的是，乐观的市场情绪和历史高估值水平并不意味着市场面临下行风险。1998年初时，席勒市盈率超过30倍，市场仍然继续上涨，这是因为当时经济基本面仍然向好，企业利润率仍有增长空间，因此市场持续上涨至2000年，经济面临衰退风险，这才最终崩盘。今天美国面临的情形与1998年截然不同。经济已经陷入衰退，尚未出现复苏迹象，就业持续恶化，收入和信贷这两个美国居民消费的来源均出现严重问题，经济复苏正在失去动能；加之政府救助不力，开始削减和延迟对普通群众的补助，使其消费能力更加受限，对基建等公共投资也迟迟不行动，更加阻碍经济复苏。这一系列后果最终将在企业盈利中体现出来，目前投资者对于盈利V型反弹的预期大概率将破灭。在这样的背景下，金融市场依靠流动性与市场情绪推动，却与基本面严重脱钩，泡沫正在进一步加重，风险依然高企。历次经济衰退中，每每泡沫吹起之后都会破碎，股市最终都会被基本面拉回现实。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959198896,"gmtCreate":1589809754015,"gmtModify":1704190692366,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>起飞吧！看好你！[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a>起飞吧！看好你！[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$达美航空(DAL)$起飞吧！看好你！[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6fa7621ee04ac0572be4db825fa552c","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959198896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911548800,"gmtCreate":1578441703100,"gmtModify":1704337493281,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不用看，肯定是伊朗有动作了……[微笑]<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"不用看，肯定是伊朗有动作了……[微笑]$标普500ETF(SPY)$$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$$苹果(AAPL)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef4ba4d797b311abb0bd88377120a92","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911548800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913422376,"gmtCreate":1577776230895,"gmtModify":1704336349533,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"控得一手好盘，缺口已补上，2019圆满收官！2020，拭目以待！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>","listText":"控得一手好盘，缺口已补上，2019圆满收官！2020，拭目以待！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$</a>","text":"控得一手好盘，缺口已补上，2019圆满收官！2020，拭目以待！$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ea4b0ae59807f259e5587e4fa1a3de9","width":"750","height":"1554"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913422376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938562740,"gmtCreate":1571703122880,"gmtModify":1704722746397,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a>双双创新高，是凤凰涅槃还是最后的疯狂？[鬼脸]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a>双双创新高，是凤凰涅槃还是最后的疯狂？[鬼脸]","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$$摩根大通(JPM)$双双创新高，是凤凰涅槃还是最后的疯狂？[鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938562740","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522545820169723","authorId":"3522545820169723","name":"秋赤音","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f5f9e35aed6574ae569a8d43dd7254e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3522545820169723","idStr":"3522545820169723"},"content":"2只股票的call都平早了","text":"2只股票的call都平早了","html":"2只股票的call都平早了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":938194782,"gmtCreate":1571306679546,"gmtModify":1704722216464,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"脱欧就这么喜大普奔嘛？[惊讶]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBS\">$苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">$巴克莱银行(BCS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">$汇丰(HSBC)$</a>","listText":"脱欧就这么喜大普奔嘛？[惊讶]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBS\">$苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">$巴克莱银行(BCS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">$汇丰(HSBC)$</a>","text":"脱欧就这么喜大普奔嘛？[惊讶]$苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)$$巴克莱银行(BCS)$$汇丰(HSBC)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294556c61111893ecb9679de3b0b0464","width":"750","height":"1129"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/938194782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":931212090,"gmtCreate":1570787491610,"gmtModify":1704721347988,"author":{"id":"3494434605518537","authorId":"3494434605518537","name":"Alpha策略者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b8974cde5224de36495ccef178acd11","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494434605518537","idStr":"3494434605518537"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>盘前股价创新高，就看今夜中美谈判的结果了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>盘前股价创新高，就看今夜中美谈判的结果了！","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$盘前股价创新高，就看今夜中美谈判的结果了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/931212090","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3459329406571457","authorId":"3459329406571457","name":"奶爸一枚","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3459329406571457","idStr":"3459329406571457"},"content":"感觉不是特别看好，印象中每次中美谈判都是美股高点的时候，然后每次都谈崩，然后美股下行，是不是这个时间都是老美挑的","text":"感觉不是特别看好，印象中每次中美谈判都是美股高点的时候，然后每次都谈崩，然后美股下行，是不是这个时间都是老美挑的","html":"感觉不是特别看好，印象中每次中美谈判都是美股高点的时候，然后每次都谈崩，然后美股下行，是不是这个时间都是老美挑的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":false}