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- 钱进钱进
  ·11-22
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 2块在接
  200 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·10-02
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 开盘10分钟就天量，这是要到40吗
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- 钱进钱进
  ·10-02
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 疯了
  385 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·10-02
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$ 我们可以操作夜盘吗
  2,998 3
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-16
  避什么，今天大涨，忽悠啥呢
  美股熊意浓浓，投资者如何提前规避风险？
  诡异的是，当专家观点一致时，市场往往会朝着相反的方向发展。 9月15日消息，德意志银行近日一项调查发现，在接受调查的550名全球市场专业人士中，有58%的人预计到年底市场将会出现5-10%的回调，仅
  美股熊意浓浓，投资者如何提前规避风险？
  2,133 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-10
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$今天能到16.5美元
  1,891 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-10
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$加油加油直奔30美元
  1,702 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-10
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$嗨起来，涨到你晕
  1,983 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-09
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$今天14.明天，明天17.然后每天10个点，直到30
  1,667 评论
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- 钱进钱进
  ·2021-09-09
  $老虎证券(TIGR)$涨涨涨涨，大家嗨起来hai pi laghai qi lahai pijhai sghaiphaghagda jiada jgdajdadyi bogxiamyiazgwyi bogxiamyiawgw
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 2块在接","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 2块在接","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 2块在接","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373738339836200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355838456934712,"gmtCreate":1727876600718,"gmtModify":1727876602118,"author":{"id":"3488480358192822","authorId":"3488480358192822","name":"钱进","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bdbf093a4cea83163480a560b913ec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488480358192822","authorIdStr":"3488480358192822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 开盘10分钟就天量，这是要到40吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 开盘10分钟就天量，这是要到40吗","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 开盘10分钟就天量，这是要到40吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355838456934712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":533,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355762343047464,"gmtCreate":1727865508927,"gmtModify":1727865510516,"author":{"id":"3488480358192822","authorId":"3488480358192822","name":"钱进","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bdbf093a4cea83163480a560b913ec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488480358192822","authorIdStr":"3488480358192822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 疯了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 疯了","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 疯了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355762343047464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355678310273040,"gmtCreate":1727837498256,"gmtModify":1727837499569,"author":{"id":"3488480358192822","authorId":"3488480358192822","name":"钱进","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bdbf093a4cea83163480a560b913ec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488480358192822","authorIdStr":"3488480358192822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 我们可以操作夜盘吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$ </a> 我们可以操作夜盘吗","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 我们可以操作夜盘吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355678310273040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885061681,"gmtCreate":1631746543043,"gmtModify":1631746543043,"author":{"id":"3488480358192822","authorId":"3488480358192822","name":"钱进","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bdbf093a4cea83163480a560b913ec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488480358192822","authorIdStr":"3488480358192822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"避什么，今天大涨，忽悠啥呢","listText":"避什么，今天大涨，忽悠啥呢","text":"避什么，今天大涨，忽悠啥呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885061681","repostId":"1182604049","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182604049","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631702595,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182604049?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 18:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股熊意浓浓，投资者如何提前规避风险？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182604049","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"诡异的是，当专家观点一致时，市场往往会朝着相反的方向发展。\n\n9月15日消息，德意志银行近日一项调查发现，在接受调查的550名全球市场专业人士中，有58%的人预计到年底市场将会出现5-10%的回调，仅","content":"<blockquote>\n 诡异的是，当专家观点一致时，市场往往会朝着相反的方向发展。\n</blockquote>\n<p>9月15日消息，德意志银行近日一项调查发现，在接受调查的550名全球市场专业人士中，有58%的人预计到年底市场将会出现5-10%的回调，仅有14%的人认为指数在未来3个月内高于当前水平。</p>\n<p>截止当前，200日均线已经连续319天没有修正，除此之外，还有更多因素需要担忧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af50aee1e7aa0a846dbc66339e45fbd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bc4ccba894b7bd85f97c9366de9cc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe6ef2c82c2f8ea08861b16d2f9c4de1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>FOMO心理作祟，分析师共识沦为‘反向指标’</b></p>\n<p>正如德意志银行策略师指出的那样，是不是有太多人期待调整？从历史看，多数时候市场会在担忧中继续攀升。正如我们摘要中描述的，当多数华尔街分析师预计某些事情会发生时，朝着反方向押注往往是有利可图的。</p>\n<p>这一点在过去一年尤为明显，市场无视估值、Delta变异株、经济增长放缓、通胀压力以及地缘政治事件的影响，相反，大家押注美联储持续的货币干预措施，不断做多。该行动也推动个股及三大指数走高，并将估值推向历史高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690768172b51d0b4d0527e77e3d6ee66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种‘非理性’投资背后，其实是FOMO（fear of missing out）心理在作怪。尽管投资者意识到，个股被高估，但因为股价连续走高，<b>投资者对错过的厌恶远远超过理性的逻辑判断。</b>当前阶段，<b>投资者心理依旧是对“逢低买入”的执着超过了对更重大修正的担忧。</b></p>\n<p><b>这也意味着，</b>市场很有可能继续低波动性地上涨一段时间。但从历史上看，低波动性总是导致更高的波动性。下表（由The Market Ear提供）显示了每年的最大回撤。请注意，多年的最小回撤紧随其后的总是多年的大回撤。</p>\n<p>换句话说，虽然目前可能有“太多的空头”，但这并不意味着他们会错。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf885d9da9d77b368b9121de3e899543\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>问题在于，何时风险会爆发。</b>情绪交易员的宏观指数模型提供了更直观的参考。情绪交易员称，宏观指数模型结合了11种不同的指标来衡量美国的经济状况。当该指数超过0.7时，投资者应该看涨，低于0.7时应该看跌。<b>在8月份的最终报告出炉后，模型跌至46%以下，这是过去十年来的第二低水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65152f9e1ed4cb51ebe1ba19a4688e33\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与此同时，<b>情绪交易员</b>指出，他们的熊市概率指标也跳升。该模型包含5个宏观变量，分别是失业率、ISM制造业指数、收益率曲线、通货膨胀和估值。“分数越高，未来几个月出现熊市的可能性就越大。去年5月，该模型得分处于1950年以来所有月份的底部10%。本月，它跃升至前10%。“</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e00ff888e031a4e3af42a095654767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这两个模型的结合尤其值得关注。即：</p>\n<p>下图显示了熊市概率模型和宏观指数模型之间的价差。价差越高，出现熊市的可能性就越大。当像现在，<b>二者价差超过20%时，标准普尔500指数的年化回报率是可怕的-17.6%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d7dff04d28d2c1837abd5e6e365177\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利财富管理分析师丽莎·沙利特（Lisa Shalett）也预测，她认为“完美定价”的市场将出现15%的回调。沙利特建议投资者提高现金水平，增加非相关资产，并降低整体风险，她说：“美国主要股指在8月和9月的前几天走强，面对令人担忧的事态发展，推升至更多日内和连续新高，本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神不再具有建设性。”</p>\n<p><b>做逆势交易者</b></p>\n<p>短期看，市场短期下跌的风险不大，因此，未来几天很可能会出现“逢低买入”的机会。自去年11月以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f20d122972ee4158b3ec67e100e90c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>不过，市场早晚将迎来调整并完成对200日均线的修正。这是不确定市场中唯一确定的事。</b>但什么因素什么事件会触发调整，以及何时迎来调整仍然未知。</p>\n<p>逆向交易者想要取得成功并不容易，‘羊群效应’等因素存在，增加了逆势操作的难度。因为动量会使得顺周期操作在一段时间内看起来是正确的，这也是无法将‘超前操作’和‘误判’区分开来的原因。</p>\n<p>考虑到未来的不确定性，尤其当前价格不利时，逆势交易者很难确信自己是正确的，这是所有逆势交易者必须面临的挑战，另一个挑战是，时机的选择。不过，长期看，与“羊群”相反方向的交易能获取最大利润。</p>\n<p>随着投资者继续“逢低买入”，市场有可能继续反弹。但是，也有可能在5%到10%之间进行修正的风险。虽然我们很难预测这种情况何时发生，不过，目前仍然可以提前做一些简单的行动来降低风险，并通过调整投资组合中各类资产的权重重新平衡风险。</p>\n<ul>\n <li>当止损水平收紧至个股当前的支撑位；</li>\n <li>建立对冲的投资组合，包括现金、非相关资产甚至期权对冲等；</li>\n <li>盈利较多的及时获利了结；</li>\n <li>亏损甚至失败的及时止损；</li>\n <li>增加现金并重新调整各项资产的权重。</li>\n</ul>\n<p><i>（本文翻译自zerohedge，原文链接：https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/are-too-many-bears-looking-correction）</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股熊意浓浓，投资者如何提前规避风险？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股熊意浓浓，投资者如何提前规避风险？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-15 18:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 诡异的是，当专家观点一致时，市场往往会朝着相反的方向发展。\n</blockquote>\n<p>9月15日消息，德意志银行近日一项调查发现，在接受调查的550名全球市场专业人士中，有58%的人预计到年底市场将会出现5-10%的回调，仅有14%的人认为指数在未来3个月内高于当前水平。</p>\n<p>截止当前，200日均线已经连续319天没有修正，除此之外，还有更多因素需要担忧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af50aee1e7aa0a846dbc66339e45fbd\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844bc4ccba894b7bd85f97c9366de9cc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe6ef2c82c2f8ea08861b16d2f9c4de1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>FOMO心理作祟，分析师共识沦为‘反向指标’</b></p>\n<p>正如德意志银行策略师指出的那样，是不是有太多人期待调整？从历史看，多数时候市场会在担忧中继续攀升。正如我们摘要中描述的，当多数华尔街分析师预计某些事情会发生时，朝着反方向押注往往是有利可图的。</p>\n<p>这一点在过去一年尤为明显，市场无视估值、Delta变异株、经济增长放缓、通胀压力以及地缘政治事件的影响，相反，大家押注美联储持续的货币干预措施，不断做多。该行动也推动个股及三大指数走高，并将估值推向历史高位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/690768172b51d0b4d0527e77e3d6ee66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这种‘非理性’投资背后，其实是FOMO（fear of missing out）心理在作怪。尽管投资者意识到，个股被高估，但因为股价连续走高，<b>投资者对错过的厌恶远远超过理性的逻辑判断。</b>当前阶段，<b>投资者心理依旧是对“逢低买入”的执着超过了对更重大修正的担忧。</b></p>\n<p><b>这也意味着，</b>市场很有可能继续低波动性地上涨一段时间。但从历史上看，低波动性总是导致更高的波动性。下表（由The Market Ear提供）显示了每年的最大回撤。请注意，多年的最小回撤紧随其后的总是多年的大回撤。</p>\n<p>换句话说，虽然目前可能有“太多的空头”，但这并不意味着他们会错。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf885d9da9d77b368b9121de3e899543\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>问题在于，何时风险会爆发。</b>情绪交易员的宏观指数模型提供了更直观的参考。情绪交易员称，宏观指数模型结合了11种不同的指标来衡量美国的经济状况。当该指数超过0.7时，投资者应该看涨，低于0.7时应该看跌。<b>在8月份的最终报告出炉后，模型跌至46%以下，这是过去十年来的第二低水平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65152f9e1ed4cb51ebe1ba19a4688e33\" tg-width=\"791\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>与此同时，<b>情绪交易员</b>指出，他们的熊市概率指标也跳升。该模型包含5个宏观变量，分别是失业率、ISM制造业指数、收益率曲线、通货膨胀和估值。“分数越高，未来几个月出现熊市的可能性就越大。去年5月，该模型得分处于1950年以来所有月份的底部10%。本月，它跃升至前10%。“</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36e00ff888e031a4e3af42a095654767\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这两个模型的结合尤其值得关注。即：</p>\n<p>下图显示了熊市概率模型和宏观指数模型之间的价差。价差越高，出现熊市的可能性就越大。当像现在，<b>二者价差超过20%时，标准普尔500指数的年化回报率是可怕的-17.6%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45d7dff04d28d2c1837abd5e6e365177\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利财富管理分析师丽莎·沙利特（Lisa Shalett）也预测，她认为“完美定价”的市场将出现15%的回调。沙利特建议投资者提高现金水平，增加非相关资产，并降低整体风险，她说：“美国主要股指在8月和9月的前几天走强，面对令人担忧的事态发展，推升至更多日内和连续新高，本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神不再具有建设性。”</p>\n<p><b>做逆势交易者</b></p>\n<p>短期看，市场短期下跌的风险不大，因此，未来几天很可能会出现“逢低买入”的机会。自去年11月以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09f20d122972ee4158b3ec67e100e90c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>不过，市场早晚将迎来调整并完成对200日均线的修正。这是不确定市场中唯一确定的事。</b>但什么因素什么事件会触发调整，以及何时迎来调整仍然未知。</p>\n<p>逆向交易者想要取得成功并不容易，‘羊群效应’等因素存在，增加了逆势操作的难度。因为动量会使得顺周期操作在一段时间内看起来是正确的，这也是无法将‘超前操作’和‘误判’区分开来的原因。</p>\n<p>考虑到未来的不确定性，尤其当前价格不利时，逆势交易者很难确信自己是正确的，这是所有逆势交易者必须面临的挑战，另一个挑战是，时机的选择。不过，长期看，与“羊群”相反方向的交易能获取最大利润。</p>\n<p>随着投资者继续“逢低买入”，市场有可能继续反弹。但是，也有可能在5%到10%之间进行修正的风险。虽然我们很难预测这种情况何时发生，不过，目前仍然可以提前做一些简单的行动来降低风险，并通过调整投资组合中各类资产的权重重新平衡风险。</p>\n<ul>\n <li>当止损水平收紧至个股当前的支撑位；</li>\n <li>建立对冲的投资组合，包括现金、非相关资产甚至期权对冲等；</li>\n <li>盈利较多的及时获利了结；</li>\n <li>亏损甚至失败的及时止损；</li>\n <li>增加现金并重新调整各项资产的权重。</li>\n</ul>\n<p><i>（本文翻译自zerohedge，原文链接：https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/are-too-many-bears-looking-correction）</i></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182604049","content_text":"诡异的是，当专家观点一致时，市场往往会朝着相反的方向发展。\n\n9月15日消息，德意志银行近日一项调查发现，在接受调查的550名全球市场专业人士中，有58%的人预计到年底市场将会出现5-10%的回调，仅有14%的人认为指数在未来3个月内高于当前水平。\n截止当前，200日均线已经连续319天没有修正，除此之外，还有更多因素需要担忧。\n\nFOMO心理作祟，分析师共识沦为‘反向指标’\n正如德意志银行策略师指出的那样，是不是有太多人期待调整？从历史看，多数时候市场会在担忧中继续攀升。正如我们摘要中描述的，当多数华尔街分析师预计某些事情会发生时，朝着反方向押注往往是有利可图的。\n这一点在过去一年尤为明显，市场无视估值、Delta变异株、经济增长放缓、通胀压力以及地缘政治事件的影响，相反，大家押注美联储持续的货币干预措施，不断做多。该行动也推动个股及三大指数走高，并将估值推向历史高位。\n\n这种‘非理性’投资背后，其实是FOMO（fear of missing out）心理在作怪。尽管投资者意识到，个股被高估，但因为股价连续走高，投资者对错过的厌恶远远超过理性的逻辑判断。当前阶段，投资者心理依旧是对“逢低买入”的执着超过了对更重大修正的担忧。\n这也意味着，市场很有可能继续低波动性地上涨一段时间。但从历史上看，低波动性总是导致更高的波动性。下表（由The Market Ear提供）显示了每年的最大回撤。请注意，多年的最小回撤紧随其后的总是多年的大回撤。\n换句话说，虽然目前可能有“太多的空头”，但这并不意味着他们会错。\n\n问题在于，何时风险会爆发。情绪交易员的宏观指数模型提供了更直观的参考。情绪交易员称，宏观指数模型结合了11种不同的指标来衡量美国的经济状况。当该指数超过0.7时，投资者应该看涨，低于0.7时应该看跌。在8月份的最终报告出炉后，模型跌至46%以下，这是过去十年来的第二低水平。\n\n与此同时，情绪交易员指出，他们的熊市概率指标也跳升。该模型包含5个宏观变量，分别是失业率、ISM制造业指数、收益率曲线、通货膨胀和估值。“分数越高，未来几个月出现熊市的可能性就越大。去年5月，该模型得分处于1950年以来所有月份的底部10%。本月，它跃升至前10%。“\n\n这两个模型的结合尤其值得关注。即：\n下图显示了熊市概率模型和宏观指数模型之间的价差。价差越高，出现熊市的可能性就越大。当像现在，二者价差超过20%时，标准普尔500指数的年化回报率是可怕的-17.6%。\n\n摩根士丹利财富管理分析师丽莎·沙利特（Lisa Shalett）也预测，她认为“完美定价”的市场将出现15%的回调。沙利特建议投资者提高现金水平，增加非相关资产，并降低整体风险，她说：“美国主要股指在8月和9月的前几天走强，面对令人担忧的事态发展，推升至更多日内和连续新高，本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神不再具有建设性。”\n做逆势交易者\n短期看，市场短期下跌的风险不大，因此，未来几天很可能会出现“逢低买入”的机会。自去年11月以来，这种情况屡见不鲜。\n\n不过，市场早晚将迎来调整并完成对200日均线的修正。这是不确定市场中唯一确定的事。但什么因素什么事件会触发调整，以及何时迎来调整仍然未知。\n逆向交易者想要取得成功并不容易，‘羊群效应’等因素存在，增加了逆势操作的难度。因为动量会使得顺周期操作在一段时间内看起来是正确的，这也是无法将‘超前操作’和‘误判’区分开来的原因。\n考虑到未来的不确定性，尤其当前价格不利时，逆势交易者很难确信自己是正确的，这是所有逆势交易者必须面临的挑战，另一个挑战是，时机的选择。不过，长期看，与“羊群”相反方向的交易能获取最大利润。\n随着投资者继续“逢低买入”，市场有可能继续反弹。但是，也有可能在5%到10%之间进行修正的风险。虽然我们很难预测这种情况何时发生，不过，目前仍然可以提前做一些简单的行动来降低风险，并通过调整投资组合中各类资产的权重重新平衡风险。\n\n当止损水平收紧至个股当前的支撑位；\n建立对冲的投资组合，包括现金、非相关资产甚至期权对冲等；\n盈利较多的及时获利了结；\n亏损甚至失败的及时止损；\n增加现金并重新调整各项资产的权重。\n\n（本文翻译自zerohedge，原文链接：https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/are-too-many-bears-looking-correction）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881988017,"gmtCreate":1631285279539,"gmtModify":1631285279539,"author":{"id":"3488480358192822","authorId":"3488480358192822","name":"钱进","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bdbf093a4cea83163480a560b913ec","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3488480358192822","authorIdStr":"3488480358192822"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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