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IP属地:中国香港
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cf940615
10-28
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
什么时候才可以回本啊
cf940615
12-16
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
什么时候才能回本啊?!
cf940615
10-14
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
亏了
cf940615
11-06
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
什么时候才可以涨上来啊
cf940615
09-26
$小米集团-W(01810)$
还会涨吗?
cf940615
10-21
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
怎么还是亏的啊
cf940615
12-09
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
亏了好多[笑哭]
cf940615
11-25
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
损失惨重啊!
cf940615
12-02
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
还能再涨上来吗?
cf940615
09-11
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
怎么总是亏钱啊?!
cf940615
09-13
$英伟达(NVDA)$
肯定能啦!我都想让他涨到140。因为我看好这只股票,它是能够涨上来的,加油!
cf940615
09-04
$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$
希望能赚点钱
cf940615
11-18
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
亏了好多啊[开心]
cf940615
11-11
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
还会涨起来吗?
cf940615
11-05
真高兴
cf940615
10-08
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
每次都是买完就亏,卖完就涨,这次不卖了,就等你涨起来!
cf940615
10-06
$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$
多少价位卖出合适呢?
cf940615
08-23
赚到一分钱也是钱 ,我不能贪,赚够了就好。
cf940615
08-23
我看行
一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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什么时候才可以涨上来啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 什么时候才可以涨上来啊","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 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12:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2461585164","media":"金十数据","summary":"华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上确认降息。该行认为,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待。鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上传达的信息可能至关重要:美联储9月降","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五,美联储主席鲍威尔将在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,<strong>这将开启美联储对抗通胀的下一阶段,他预计将为降息铺平道路,同时向投资者保证,政策制定者可以避免经济大幅放缓。</strong></p><p>鲍威尔的言论将被抽丝剥茧,以寻找在就业报告弱于预期、通胀进一步放缓后,这位美联储主席如何看待经济的任何暗示。</p><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。</p><p>华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上<strong>确认降息</strong>。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。</p><h2 id=\"id_2424359183\">鲍威尔讲话预期</h2><h3 id=\"id_781239534\">今夜最瞩目!鲍威尔即将亮相,能否带来新惊喜?</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔可能只会为政策前景提供一些有限的指导,同时无疑将对市场近期的动荡作出回应。</p></blockquote><p>鲍威尔的演讲将于北京时间晚上10点在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度全球央行行长会议上发表。这次会议的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导”,会议将持续到周六。</p><p>这一次,他的任务将是确认市场的预期,同时也表明他对经济的看法,特别是通胀压力的缓和以及对劳动力市场的一些担忧。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家David Mericle在最近的一份报告中说:“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心,并比他在7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”</p><p>高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致:预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息,然后加大宽松力度,最终将联邦基金利率削减约200个基点。该行认为,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。</p><h3 id=\"id_3544933081\">鲍威尔周五将在全球央行年会上重磅发声,料将保留激进宽松选项</h3><blockquote><p>美银认为,鲍威尔不会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,问题是鲍威尔很难比市场预期更加鸽派。</p></blockquote><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。</p><p>美国银行预测,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话不太可能对美元产生太大影响。该行的分析师指出,基金仍对美元走强持乐观态度,这可能会带来下行风险。<strong>“但是,即使鲍威尔的讲话偏向鸽派,他的语气也很难比市场预期的更加鸽派。”</strong></p><p>美银表示,市场定价了今年降息四次, “<strong>我们不认为鲍威尔会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项</strong>,这取决于9月会议前的数据。”</p><p><strong>一个进一步的信号可能是,鲍威尔是否更坚定地表示,委员会希望避免劳动力市场出现“意想不到的疲软”,而不是简单地在它发生后做出反应。</strong>此外,他可能会参考6月份的预测摘要,并表示委员会可能会逐步调整政策,以在前景不确定的情况下平衡风险。</p><h3 id=\"id_4050266648\">杰克逊霍尔年会前猛“吹风”:美联储官员支持很快开始降息,主张渐进式降息</h3><blockquote><p>波士顿联储主席柯林斯和费城联储主希拉克认为很快开始降息是合适的,开始宽松时应循序渐进。堪萨斯联储主席施密德则表示,他还没有准备好支持降息。</p></blockquote><p>两位美联储官员表示,他们认为美联储很快开始降息是合适的,随后的降息步伐应该是“渐进的”、“有条不紊的”。</p><p>波士顿联储主席柯林斯在接受彭博新闻社和福克斯商业台采访时使用了这些说法,而费城联储主希拉克在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受路透社和CNBC采访时也使用了类似的措辞。两人都没有更准确地说明这些术语对降息频率的具体含义。</p><h3 id=\"id_4131513767\">大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</h3><blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。</p></blockquote><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。<strong>市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</strong></p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><h3 id=\"id_853227627\">本周,所有的焦点都将集中在鲍威尔身上!</h3><blockquote><p>上次鲍威尔一说话,市场暴跌,那这次呢?</p></blockquote><p>去年8月,美联储的主要问题是利率需要在20年高位维持多久才能抑制通胀。现在,随着通胀出现新的降温迹象和就业市场放缓,<strong>问题不再是美联储是否会降息,而是该降息多少?</strong></p><p>投资者将密切关注鲍威尔于北京时间周五晚10点发表的讲话,届时他将有机会提供有关美联储未来货币政策路径的线索。</p><p><strong>传统上,美联储主席都会利用他们在杰克逊霍尔的讲话来传递重要的、长期的政策信息。</strong></p><p>前美联储主席伯南克在2010年的讲话中提出了一种论点,即<strong>美联储可以通过购买债券来推动经济增长,这种工具也被称为量化宽松(QE)。</strong></p><p>鲍威尔在2018年的“星光指引”演讲中,概述了他对自然实际利率的思考方式,即既不会刺激也不会抑制增长的利率。这可能是他作为主席最令人难忘的演讲。</p><p>2022年,<strong>鲍威尔在一次比以往更简短的演讲中,承诺将尽一切努力使通胀回到美联储2% 的目标,并警告称更高的利率可能会带来痛苦和更高的失业率,从而导致市场暴跌。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3231215623\">高盛:鲍威尔将更加鸽派!</h3><blockquote><p>高盛预计,美联储将在9月、11月和12月连续三次降息25个基点,并预计明年还将有进一步的降息。</p></blockquote><p>市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待。这次讲话对于塑造市场对未来可能的降息预期至关重要。</p><p>高盛研究部首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔(David Mericle)在最近的报告中写道:“鉴于自上次FOMC会议后发布的数据,我们<strong>预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更大的信心,并更加强调劳动力市场的下行风险。</strong>”</p><p>梅里克尔写道:“鉴于消费者价格指数(CPI)报告疲软、就业增长数据不佳以及失业率的进一步上升,<strong>我们预计鲍威尔将会提供比7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更为鸽派的信息。</strong>”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd213eb916b02db222b8e98580a8fb4e\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2127\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_4241020956\">市场眼光聚集!鲍威尔周五究竟会带来什么样的“震撼”?</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔本周五“很忙”,他不仅需要给出足够有力降息理由,还不能引发市场的担忧……</p></blockquote><p>对于关注鲍威尔讲话的人,尤其是在债券市场上的人来说,一个关键问题是,另一份疲软的就业报告是否会为下个月的大幅降息敞开大门,或者迫使美联储在接下来的几个月内采取积极的降息措施。</p><p>“有争论说,美联储一开始可以稍微快一点降息,然后放慢速度,”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>美国首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示。“我认为,只有当有证据表明劳动力市场正在以更加显著的方式走弱时,这种论点才会真正具有分量。”</p><p><strong>鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上传达的信息可能至关重要:美联储9月降息的理由必须足够有力,以应对今年大选期间围绕美联储的政治压力。</strong>这可能涉及指出就业市场放缓和经济增长疲软。但MacroPolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示,他不会想对经济前景发出过于消极的信息,“为了防止发出负面信号,美联储需要在沟通上非常明确。”</p><h3 id=\"id_2165541754\">顶级经济学家:鲍威尔应抓住杰克逊霍尔的“黄金机会”</h3><blockquote><p>安联首席经济学家表示,美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。</p></blockquote><p>欢迎来到杰克逊霍尔周。此次会议将讨论近期的经济和金融发展、政策问题及其对央行的意义。</p><p>今年美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲备受期待,因为美国正经历着经济的不确定性和金融市场的波动,并且这些问题正在向全世界扩散。在这样一个充满真实不确定性的情境下——包括美国国内和全球层面的不确定性,<strong>这种不确定性因三个关键稳定锚点的侵蚀而加剧:稳定的经济增长、有效的前瞻性政策指引以及市场参与者中过高的杠杆率和过度的风险承担行为。</strong></p><p>这就是为什么<strong>鲍威尔需要利用本周五这个黄金机会来重夺经济和政策叙事的话语权。今年美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_1491673674\">鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上说什么?别期望太高</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔的语气,而非言辞,是维持市场情绪的关键。期权交易员预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数周五将上下波动1%。</p></blockquote><p>华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上<strong>确认降息</strong>。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。</p><p>Steward Partners Global Advisory财富管理执行董事总经理埃里克-贝利(Eric Beiley)说:“如果交易员们听到降息即将到来,股市就会做出有利的反应。如果我们没有听到我们想要的消息,那将引发大跌。”</p><p>这正是资金经理们所面临的挑战,他们刚刚纷纷重投大型科技股,追逐标普500指数的不断攀升。市场完全预期美联储将在即将于9月召开的会议上开始降息。<strong>但鲍威尔在周五发表讲话时,很容易对降息时机保持缄默。而且,在透露美联储可能会降息多少时,采取谨慎、不置可否的态度也非常符合他的性格。</strong></p><p>“<strong>鲍威尔不需要吓唬市场</strong>,”Homrich Berg的兰说。“他需要让市场相信,通胀正在消退,官员们可以放心地将限制性利率降至更为中性的水平。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470e6f758adb1da7800d3a976a3a4f58\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1825\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_733259236\">市场将作何反应?</h2><h3 id=\"id_2662320091\">交易员在杰克逊霍尔央行年会前做空美元,日元涨声一片</h3><blockquote><p>周一美元跌至七个月低点,期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌。</p></blockquote><p><strong>周一美元跌至七个月低点,日元创下逾一周新高。</strong>交易员在等待美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本周的言论,预计这些言论将发出美联储将于9月开始降息的信号。另一个主要焦点将是鲍威尔是否表示今后每次会议都可能降息,但市场可能高估了美联储可能采取行动的程度和速度。</p><p>目前<strong>期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌</strong>,因预期鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上强化降息的理由。</p><p>一篮子美元主要贸易伙伴的货币对风险逆转指数显示,交易员为在未来一周或一个月内美元下跌时受益的期权支付的价格高于那些寻求上涨的期权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7792c1276c9a5764b40783aeb83527f5\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3707223250\">以史为鉴,杰克逊霍尔年会更可能助涨股市</h3><blockquote><p>数据显示,美股在杰克逊霍尔年会前后两周涨多跌少。</p></blockquote><p>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一通过电子邮件发送的一份说明中表示:“<strong>标普500指数(SPX)往往会在美联储杰克逊霍尔会议前后的两周内反弹,主要是在美联储主席发表讲话之后。我们预计今年也会出现同样的情况。</strong>”</p><p>科拉斯说:“市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期非常高。<strong>鲍威尔本周五在这个问题上应该会给市场足够的信心,从而在未来两周内出现典型的由杰克逊霍尔年会触发的上涨行情。</strong>”</p><p>与此同时,根据DataTrek的数据,<strong>至少从企业最近的财报电话会议来看,它们似乎并不太担心短期内会出现经济衰退。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007190af2dedbbdc60cdaf769e631dd4\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"756\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_680318165\">鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔说什么,市场如何反应?</h3><blockquote><p>分析师表示,鲍威尔或“适度反驳最近市场对降息周期过度的定价。”</p></blockquote><p>投资者将密切关注鲍威尔周五的演讲,寻找有关货币政策轨迹的任何暗示,包括美联储多年来首次降息的幅度以及后续降息的潜在速度。</p><p>野村证券分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道:“鲍威尔可能会承认,<strong>如果劳动力市场恶化,美联储准备迅速放松政策。</strong>”“即便如此,我们预计他的<strong>言论将比7月份的新闻发布会更为平衡——同时也会指出通胀上行的风险。</strong>”</p><p>美银证券分析师最近指出,<strong>标普500指数对杰克逊霍尔会议的历史反应有限。</strong>当然也有例外:2022年,鲍威尔在谈及恢复价格稳定必要性时采取了鹰派立场,股市随后大幅下跌。</p><p>但他们预计,今年不太可能出现这种情况。分析师写道:“由于市场已经计入了降息的因素,即使是一个鸽派的杰克逊霍尔演讲所带来的上行空间也可能有限。”</p><h3 id=\"id_3666005597\">鲍威尔恐怕不敢大胆唱“鸽”,美元短期内凶多吉少?</h3><blockquote><p>麦格理在近期的报告中指出,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的基调、即将到来的数据和政治事态发展将影响美元未来几周的走势。</p></blockquote><p>麦格理(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a>)分析师最近撰文指出,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话时,<strong>预计将采取温和的语气,但不太可能过于鸽派。鲍威尔的基调以及即将到来的数据和政治事态发展,可能会在未来几周影响美元的走向。</strong></p><p>具体而言,他们指出:“我们不会对鲍威尔的温和基调感到惊讶,这可能会对外汇市场和投资者情绪产生影响。”他们补充道:“然而,我们怀疑鲍威尔是否会如此大胆地发出非常‘鸽派’的声音。”</p><p>分析师们还指出,哈里斯在下周的民调中出现的任何集会后支持率的反弹都可能导致美元进一步走软。麦格理指出,在过去四周里,美元经历了显著的疲软,并将其归因于支持强势美元的“特朗普交易”的平仓。</p><p>经济学家普遍认为,美联储越来越接近征服高通胀。不过,很少有经济学家认为鲍威尔或其他美联储官员准备宣布“任务完成”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c388cd6735f4dff98cc1fb68e888b881\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1384\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-23 12:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五,美联储主席鲍威尔将在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,这将开启美联储对抗通胀的下一阶段,他预计将为降息铺平道路,同时向投资者保证,政策制定者可以避免经济大幅放缓。鲍威尔的言论将被抽丝剥茧,以寻找在就业报告弱于预期、通胀进一步放缓后,这位美联储主席如何看待经济的任何暗示。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5ec9f661a784fbceeebea1957fd09e","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2461585164","content_text":"周五,美联储主席鲍威尔将在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,这将开启美联储对抗通胀的下一阶段,他预计将为降息铺平道路,同时向投资者保证,政策制定者可以避免经济大幅放缓。鲍威尔的言论将被抽丝剥茧,以寻找在就业报告弱于预期、通胀进一步放缓后,这位美联储主席如何看待经济的任何暗示。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上确认降息。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。鲍威尔讲话预期今夜最瞩目!鲍威尔即将亮相,能否带来新惊喜?鲍威尔可能只会为政策前景提供一些有限的指导,同时无疑将对市场近期的动荡作出回应。鲍威尔的演讲将于北京时间晚上10点在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度全球央行行长会议上发表。这次会议的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导”,会议将持续到周六。这一次,他的任务将是确认市场的预期,同时也表明他对经济的看法,特别是通胀压力的缓和以及对劳动力市场的一些担忧。高盛经济学家David Mericle在最近的一份报告中说:“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心,并比他在7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致:预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息,然后加大宽松力度,最终将联邦基金利率削减约200个基点。该行认为,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。鲍威尔周五将在全球央行年会上重磅发声,料将保留激进宽松选项美银认为,鲍威尔不会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,问题是鲍威尔很难比市场预期更加鸽派。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。美国银行预测,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话不太可能对美元产生太大影响。该行的分析师指出,基金仍对美元走强持乐观态度,这可能会带来下行风险。“但是,即使鲍威尔的讲话偏向鸽派,他的语气也很难比市场预期的更加鸽派。”美银表示,市场定价了今年降息四次, “我们不认为鲍威尔会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,这取决于9月会议前的数据。”一个进一步的信号可能是,鲍威尔是否更坚定地表示,委员会希望避免劳动力市场出现“意想不到的疲软”,而不是简单地在它发生后做出反应。此外,他可能会参考6月份的预测摘要,并表示委员会可能会逐步调整政策,以在前景不确定的情况下平衡风险。杰克逊霍尔年会前猛“吹风”:美联储官员支持很快开始降息,主张渐进式降息波士顿联储主席柯林斯和费城联储主希拉克认为很快开始降息是合适的,开始宽松时应循序渐进。堪萨斯联储主席施密德则表示,他还没有准备好支持降息。两位美联储官员表示,他们认为美联储很快开始降息是合适的,随后的降息步伐应该是“渐进的”、“有条不紊的”。波士顿联储主席柯林斯在接受彭博新闻社和福克斯商业台采访时使用了这些说法,而费城联储主希拉克在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受路透社和CNBC采访时也使用了类似的措辞。两人都没有更准确地说明这些术语对降息频率的具体含义。大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。本周,所有的焦点都将集中在鲍威尔身上!上次鲍威尔一说话,市场暴跌,那这次呢?去年8月,美联储的主要问题是利率需要在20年高位维持多久才能抑制通胀。现在,随着通胀出现新的降温迹象和就业市场放缓,问题不再是美联储是否会降息,而是该降息多少?投资者将密切关注鲍威尔于北京时间周五晚10点发表的讲话,届时他将有机会提供有关美联储未来货币政策路径的线索。传统上,美联储主席都会利用他们在杰克逊霍尔的讲话来传递重要的、长期的政策信息。前美联储主席伯南克在2010年的讲话中提出了一种论点,即美联储可以通过购买债券来推动经济增长,这种工具也被称为量化宽松(QE)。鲍威尔在2018年的“星光指引”演讲中,概述了他对自然实际利率的思考方式,即既不会刺激也不会抑制增长的利率。这可能是他作为主席最令人难忘的演讲。2022年,鲍威尔在一次比以往更简短的演讲中,承诺将尽一切努力使通胀回到美联储2% 的目标,并警告称更高的利率可能会带来痛苦和更高的失业率,从而导致市场暴跌。高盛:鲍威尔将更加鸽派!高盛预计,美联储将在9月、11月和12月连续三次降息25个基点,并预计明年还将有进一步的降息。市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待。这次讲话对于塑造市场对未来可能的降息预期至关重要。高盛研究部首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔(David Mericle)在最近的报告中写道:“鉴于自上次FOMC会议后发布的数据,我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更大的信心,并更加强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”梅里克尔写道:“鉴于消费者价格指数(CPI)报告疲软、就业增长数据不佳以及失业率的进一步上升,我们预计鲍威尔将会提供比7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更为鸽派的信息。”市场眼光聚集!鲍威尔周五究竟会带来什么样的“震撼”?鲍威尔本周五“很忙”,他不仅需要给出足够有力降息理由,还不能引发市场的担忧……对于关注鲍威尔讲话的人,尤其是在债券市场上的人来说,一个关键问题是,另一份疲软的就业报告是否会为下个月的大幅降息敞开大门,或者迫使美联储在接下来的几个月内采取积极的降息措施。“有争论说,美联储一开始可以稍微快一点降息,然后放慢速度,”德意志银行美国首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示。“我认为,只有当有证据表明劳动力市场正在以更加显著的方式走弱时,这种论点才会真正具有分量。”鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上传达的信息可能至关重要:美联储9月降息的理由必须足够有力,以应对今年大选期间围绕美联储的政治压力。这可能涉及指出就业市场放缓和经济增长疲软。但MacroPolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示,他不会想对经济前景发出过于消极的信息,“为了防止发出负面信号,美联储需要在沟通上非常明确。”顶级经济学家:鲍威尔应抓住杰克逊霍尔的“黄金机会”安联首席经济学家表示,美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。欢迎来到杰克逊霍尔周。此次会议将讨论近期的经济和金融发展、政策问题及其对央行的意义。今年美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲备受期待,因为美国正经历着经济的不确定性和金融市场的波动,并且这些问题正在向全世界扩散。在这样一个充满真实不确定性的情境下——包括美国国内和全球层面的不确定性,这种不确定性因三个关键稳定锚点的侵蚀而加剧:稳定的经济增长、有效的前瞻性政策指引以及市场参与者中过高的杠杆率和过度的风险承担行为。这就是为什么鲍威尔需要利用本周五这个黄金机会来重夺经济和政策叙事的话语权。今年美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上说什么?别期望太高鲍威尔的语气,而非言辞,是维持市场情绪的关键。期权交易员预计标普500指数周五将上下波动1%。华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上确认降息。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。Steward Partners Global Advisory财富管理执行董事总经理埃里克-贝利(Eric Beiley)说:“如果交易员们听到降息即将到来,股市就会做出有利的反应。如果我们没有听到我们想要的消息,那将引发大跌。”这正是资金经理们所面临的挑战,他们刚刚纷纷重投大型科技股,追逐标普500指数的不断攀升。市场完全预期美联储将在即将于9月召开的会议上开始降息。但鲍威尔在周五发表讲话时,很容易对降息时机保持缄默。而且,在透露美联储可能会降息多少时,采取谨慎、不置可否的态度也非常符合他的性格。“鲍威尔不需要吓唬市场,”Homrich Berg的兰说。“他需要让市场相信,通胀正在消退,官员们可以放心地将限制性利率降至更为中性的水平。”市场将作何反应?交易员在杰克逊霍尔央行年会前做空美元,日元涨声一片周一美元跌至七个月低点,期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌。周一美元跌至七个月低点,日元创下逾一周新高。交易员在等待美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本周的言论,预计这些言论将发出美联储将于9月开始降息的信号。另一个主要焦点将是鲍威尔是否表示今后每次会议都可能降息,但市场可能高估了美联储可能采取行动的程度和速度。目前期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌,因预期鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上强化降息的理由。一篮子美元主要贸易伙伴的货币对风险逆转指数显示,交易员为在未来一周或一个月内美元下跌时受益的期权支付的价格高于那些寻求上涨的期权。以史为鉴,杰克逊霍尔年会更可能助涨股市数据显示,美股在杰克逊霍尔年会前后两周涨多跌少。DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一通过电子邮件发送的一份说明中表示:“标普500指数(SPX)往往会在美联储杰克逊霍尔会议前后的两周内反弹,主要是在美联储主席发表讲话之后。我们预计今年也会出现同样的情况。”科拉斯说:“市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期非常高。鲍威尔本周五在这个问题上应该会给市场足够的信心,从而在未来两周内出现典型的由杰克逊霍尔年会触发的上涨行情。”与此同时,根据DataTrek的数据,至少从企业最近的财报电话会议来看,它们似乎并不太担心短期内会出现经济衰退。鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔说什么,市场如何反应?分析师表示,鲍威尔或“适度反驳最近市场对降息周期过度的定价。”投资者将密切关注鲍威尔周五的演讲,寻找有关货币政策轨迹的任何暗示,包括美联储多年来首次降息的幅度以及后续降息的潜在速度。野村证券分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道:“鲍威尔可能会承认,如果劳动力市场恶化,美联储准备迅速放松政策。”“即便如此,我们预计他的言论将比7月份的新闻发布会更为平衡——同时也会指出通胀上行的风险。”美银证券分析师最近指出,标普500指数对杰克逊霍尔会议的历史反应有限。当然也有例外:2022年,鲍威尔在谈及恢复价格稳定必要性时采取了鹰派立场,股市随后大幅下跌。但他们预计,今年不太可能出现这种情况。分析师写道:“由于市场已经计入了降息的因素,即使是一个鸽派的杰克逊霍尔演讲所带来的上行空间也可能有限。”鲍威尔恐怕不敢大胆唱“鸽”,美元短期内凶多吉少?麦格理在近期的报告中指出,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的基调、即将到来的数据和政治事态发展将影响美元未来几周的走势。麦格理(Macquarie)分析师最近撰文指出,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话时,预计将采取温和的语气,但不太可能过于鸽派。鲍威尔的基调以及即将到来的数据和政治事态发展,可能会在未来几周影响美元的走向。具体而言,他们指出:“我们不会对鲍威尔的温和基调感到惊讶,这可能会对外汇市场和投资者情绪产生影响。”他们补充道:“然而,我们怀疑鲍威尔是否会如此大胆地发出非常‘鸽派’的声音。”分析师们还指出,哈里斯在下周的民调中出现的任何集会后支持率的反弹都可能导致美元进一步走软。麦格理指出,在过去四周里,美元经历了显著的疲软,并将其归因于支持强势美元的“特朗普交易”的平仓。经济学家普遍认为,美联储越来越接近征服高通胀。不过,很少有经济学家认为鲍威尔或其他美联储官员准备宣布“任务完成”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":364854661296208,"gmtCreate":1730085966699,"gmtModify":1730124603804,"author":{"id":"4187245846080812","authorId":"4187245846080812","name":"cf940615","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b2d468286e6c7b028f3b65abc2bac66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4187245846080812","idStr":"4187245846080812"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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id=\"id_781239534\">今夜最瞩目!鲍威尔即将亮相,能否带来新惊喜?</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔可能只会为政策前景提供一些有限的指导,同时无疑将对市场近期的动荡作出回应。</p></blockquote><p>鲍威尔的演讲将于北京时间晚上10点在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度全球央行行长会议上发表。这次会议的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导”,会议将持续到周六。</p><p>这一次,他的任务将是确认市场的预期,同时也表明他对经济的看法,特别是通胀压力的缓和以及对劳动力市场的一些担忧。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>经济学家David Mericle在最近的一份报告中说:“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心,并比他在7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”</p><p>高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致:预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息,然后加大宽松力度,最终将联邦基金利率削减约200个基点。该行认为,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。</p><h3 id=\"id_3544933081\">鲍威尔周五将在全球央行年会上重磅发声,料将保留激进宽松选项</h3><blockquote><p>美银认为,鲍威尔不会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,问题是鲍威尔很难比市场预期更加鸽派。</p></blockquote><p>市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。</p><p>美国银行预测,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话不太可能对美元产生太大影响。该行的分析师指出,基金仍对美元走强持乐观态度,这可能会带来下行风险。<strong>“但是,即使鲍威尔的讲话偏向鸽派,他的语气也很难比市场预期的更加鸽派。”</strong></p><p>美银表示,市场定价了今年降息四次, “<strong>我们不认为鲍威尔会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项</strong>,这取决于9月会议前的数据。”</p><p><strong>一个进一步的信号可能是,鲍威尔是否更坚定地表示,委员会希望避免劳动力市场出现“意想不到的疲软”,而不是简单地在它发生后做出反应。</strong>此外,他可能会参考6月份的预测摘要,并表示委员会可能会逐步调整政策,以在前景不确定的情况下平衡风险。</p><h3 id=\"id_4050266648\">杰克逊霍尔年会前猛“吹风”:美联储官员支持很快开始降息,主张渐进式降息</h3><blockquote><p>波士顿联储主席柯林斯和费城联储主希拉克认为很快开始降息是合适的,开始宽松时应循序渐进。堪萨斯联储主席施密德则表示,他还没有准备好支持降息。</p></blockquote><p>两位美联储官员表示,他们认为美联储很快开始降息是合适的,随后的降息步伐应该是“渐进的”、“有条不紊的”。</p><p>波士顿联储主席柯林斯在接受彭博新闻社和福克斯商业台采访时使用了这些说法,而费城联储主希拉克在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受路透社和CNBC采访时也使用了类似的措辞。两人都没有更准确地说明这些术语对降息频率的具体含义。</p><h3 id=\"id_4131513767\">大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!</h3><blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。</p></blockquote><p>我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但<strong>鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。</strong></p><p>事实上,<strong>一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势</strong>。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。<strong>市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。</strong></p><p>失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,<strong>4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多</strong>。</p><p>水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即<strong>美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点</strong>。</p><h3 id=\"id_853227627\">本周,所有的焦点都将集中在鲍威尔身上!</h3><blockquote><p>上次鲍威尔一说话,市场暴跌,那这次呢?</p></blockquote><p>去年8月,美联储的主要问题是利率需要在20年高位维持多久才能抑制通胀。现在,随着通胀出现新的降温迹象和就业市场放缓,<strong>问题不再是美联储是否会降息,而是该降息多少?</strong></p><p>投资者将密切关注鲍威尔于北京时间周五晚10点发表的讲话,届时他将有机会提供有关美联储未来货币政策路径的线索。</p><p><strong>传统上,美联储主席都会利用他们在杰克逊霍尔的讲话来传递重要的、长期的政策信息。</strong></p><p>前美联储主席伯南克在2010年的讲话中提出了一种论点,即<strong>美联储可以通过购买债券来推动经济增长,这种工具也被称为量化宽松(QE)。</strong></p><p>鲍威尔在2018年的“星光指引”演讲中,概述了他对自然实际利率的思考方式,即既不会刺激也不会抑制增长的利率。这可能是他作为主席最令人难忘的演讲。</p><p>2022年,<strong>鲍威尔在一次比以往更简短的演讲中,承诺将尽一切努力使通胀回到美联储2% 的目标,并警告称更高的利率可能会带来痛苦和更高的失业率,从而导致市场暴跌。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_3231215623\">高盛:鲍威尔将更加鸽派!</h3><blockquote><p>高盛预计,美联储将在9月、11月和12月连续三次降息25个基点,并预计明年还将有进一步的降息。</p></blockquote><p>市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待。这次讲话对于塑造市场对未来可能的降息预期至关重要。</p><p>高盛研究部首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔(David Mericle)在最近的报告中写道:“鉴于自上次FOMC会议后发布的数据,我们<strong>预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更大的信心,并更加强调劳动力市场的下行风险。</strong>”</p><p>梅里克尔写道:“鉴于消费者价格指数(CPI)报告疲软、就业增长数据不佳以及失业率的进一步上升,<strong>我们预计鲍威尔将会提供比7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更为鸽派的信息。</strong>”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd213eb916b02db222b8e98580a8fb4e\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"2127\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_4241020956\">市场眼光聚集!鲍威尔周五究竟会带来什么样的“震撼”?</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔本周五“很忙”,他不仅需要给出足够有力降息理由,还不能引发市场的担忧……</p></blockquote><p>对于关注鲍威尔讲话的人,尤其是在债券市场上的人来说,一个关键问题是,另一份疲软的就业报告是否会为下个月的大幅降息敞开大门,或者迫使美联储在接下来的几个月内采取积极的降息措施。</p><p>“有争论说,美联储一开始可以稍微快一点降息,然后放慢速度,”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>美国首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示。“我认为,只有当有证据表明劳动力市场正在以更加显著的方式走弱时,这种论点才会真正具有分量。”</p><p><strong>鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上传达的信息可能至关重要:美联储9月降息的理由必须足够有力,以应对今年大选期间围绕美联储的政治压力。</strong>这可能涉及指出就业市场放缓和经济增长疲软。但MacroPolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示,他不会想对经济前景发出过于消极的信息,“为了防止发出负面信号,美联储需要在沟通上非常明确。”</p><h3 id=\"id_2165541754\">顶级经济学家:鲍威尔应抓住杰克逊霍尔的“黄金机会”</h3><blockquote><p>安联首席经济学家表示,美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。</p></blockquote><p>欢迎来到杰克逊霍尔周。此次会议将讨论近期的经济和金融发展、政策问题及其对央行的意义。</p><p>今年美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲备受期待,因为美国正经历着经济的不确定性和金融市场的波动,并且这些问题正在向全世界扩散。在这样一个充满真实不确定性的情境下——包括美国国内和全球层面的不确定性,<strong>这种不确定性因三个关键稳定锚点的侵蚀而加剧:稳定的经济增长、有效的前瞻性政策指引以及市场参与者中过高的杠杆率和过度的风险承担行为。</strong></p><p>这就是为什么<strong>鲍威尔需要利用本周五这个黄金机会来重夺经济和政策叙事的话语权。今年美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_1491673674\">鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上说什么?别期望太高</h3><blockquote><p>鲍威尔的语气,而非言辞,是维持市场情绪的关键。期权交易员预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数周五将上下波动1%。</p></blockquote><p>华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上<strong>确认降息</strong>。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。</p><p>Steward Partners Global Advisory财富管理执行董事总经理埃里克-贝利(Eric Beiley)说:“如果交易员们听到降息即将到来,股市就会做出有利的反应。如果我们没有听到我们想要的消息,那将引发大跌。”</p><p>这正是资金经理们所面临的挑战,他们刚刚纷纷重投大型科技股,追逐标普500指数的不断攀升。市场完全预期美联储将在即将于9月召开的会议上开始降息。<strong>但鲍威尔在周五发表讲话时,很容易对降息时机保持缄默。而且,在透露美联储可能会降息多少时,采取谨慎、不置可否的态度也非常符合他的性格。</strong></p><p>“<strong>鲍威尔不需要吓唬市场</strong>,”Homrich Berg的兰说。“他需要让市场相信,通胀正在消退,官员们可以放心地将限制性利率降至更为中性的水平。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470e6f758adb1da7800d3a976a3a4f58\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1825\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_733259236\">市场将作何反应?</h2><h3 id=\"id_2662320091\">交易员在杰克逊霍尔央行年会前做空美元,日元涨声一片</h3><blockquote><p>周一美元跌至七个月低点,期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌。</p></blockquote><p><strong>周一美元跌至七个月低点,日元创下逾一周新高。</strong>交易员在等待美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本周的言论,预计这些言论将发出美联储将于9月开始降息的信号。另一个主要焦点将是鲍威尔是否表示今后每次会议都可能降息,但市场可能高估了美联储可能采取行动的程度和速度。</p><p>目前<strong>期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌</strong>,因预期鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上强化降息的理由。</p><p>一篮子美元主要贸易伙伴的货币对风险逆转指数显示,交易员为在未来一周或一个月内美元下跌时受益的期权支付的价格高于那些寻求上涨的期权。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7792c1276c9a5764b40783aeb83527f5\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_3707223250\">以史为鉴,杰克逊霍尔年会更可能助涨股市</h3><blockquote><p>数据显示,美股在杰克逊霍尔年会前后两周涨多跌少。</p></blockquote><p>DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一通过电子邮件发送的一份说明中表示:“<strong>标普500指数(SPX)往往会在美联储杰克逊霍尔会议前后的两周内反弹,主要是在美联储主席发表讲话之后。我们预计今年也会出现同样的情况。</strong>”</p><p>科拉斯说:“市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期非常高。<strong>鲍威尔本周五在这个问题上应该会给市场足够的信心,从而在未来两周内出现典型的由杰克逊霍尔年会触发的上涨行情。</strong>”</p><p>与此同时,根据DataTrek的数据,<strong>至少从企业最近的财报电话会议来看,它们似乎并不太担心短期内会出现经济衰退。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007190af2dedbbdc60cdaf769e631dd4\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"756\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_680318165\">鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔说什么,市场如何反应?</h3><blockquote><p>分析师表示,鲍威尔或“适度反驳最近市场对降息周期过度的定价。”</p></blockquote><p>投资者将密切关注鲍威尔周五的演讲,寻找有关货币政策轨迹的任何暗示,包括美联储多年来首次降息的幅度以及后续降息的潜在速度。</p><p>野村证券分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道:“鲍威尔可能会承认,<strong>如果劳动力市场恶化,美联储准备迅速放松政策。</strong>”“即便如此,我们预计他的<strong>言论将比7月份的新闻发布会更为平衡——同时也会指出通胀上行的风险。</strong>”</p><p>美银证券分析师最近指出,<strong>标普500指数对杰克逊霍尔会议的历史反应有限。</strong>当然也有例外:2022年,鲍威尔在谈及恢复价格稳定必要性时采取了鹰派立场,股市随后大幅下跌。</p><p>但他们预计,今年不太可能出现这种情况。分析师写道:“由于市场已经计入了降息的因素,即使是一个鸽派的杰克逊霍尔演讲所带来的上行空间也可能有限。”</p><h3 id=\"id_3666005597\">鲍威尔恐怕不敢大胆唱“鸽”,美元短期内凶多吉少?</h3><blockquote><p>麦格理在近期的报告中指出,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的基调、即将到来的数据和政治事态发展将影响美元未来几周的走势。</p></blockquote><p>麦格理(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a>)分析师最近撰文指出,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话时,<strong>预计将采取温和的语气,但不太可能过于鸽派。鲍威尔的基调以及即将到来的数据和政治事态发展,可能会在未来几周影响美元的走向。</strong></p><p>具体而言,他们指出:“我们不会对鲍威尔的温和基调感到惊讶,这可能会对外汇市场和投资者情绪产生影响。”他们补充道:“然而,我们怀疑鲍威尔是否会如此大胆地发出非常‘鸽派’的声音。”</p><p>分析师们还指出,哈里斯在下周的民调中出现的任何集会后支持率的反弹都可能导致美元进一步走软。麦格理指出,在过去四周里,美元经历了显著的疲软,并将其归因于支持强势美元的“特朗普交易”的平仓。</p><p>经济学家普遍认为,美联储越来越接近征服高通胀。不过,很少有经济学家认为鲍威尔或其他美联储官员准备宣布“任务完成”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c388cd6735f4dff98cc1fb68e888b881\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"1384\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一文汇总:杰克逊霍尔年会,鲍威尔将如何撼动市场?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-23 12:30 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五,美联储主席鲍威尔将在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,这将开启美联储对抗通胀的下一阶段,他预计将为降息铺平道路,同时向投资者保证,政策制定者可以避免经济大幅放缓。鲍威尔的言论将被抽丝剥茧,以寻找在就业报告弱于预期、通胀进一步放缓后,这位美联储主席如何看待经济的任何暗示。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5ec9f661a784fbceeebea1957fd09e","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=146481&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2461585164","content_text":"周五,美联储主席鲍威尔将在美联储年度杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,这将开启美联储对抗通胀的下一阶段,他预计将为降息铺平道路,同时向投资者保证,政策制定者可以避免经济大幅放缓。鲍威尔的言论将被抽丝剥茧,以寻找在就业报告弱于预期、通胀进一步放缓后,这位美联储主席如何看待经济的任何暗示。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上确认降息。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。鲍威尔讲话预期今夜最瞩目!鲍威尔即将亮相,能否带来新惊喜?鲍威尔可能只会为政策前景提供一些有限的指导,同时无疑将对市场近期的动荡作出回应。鲍威尔的演讲将于北京时间晚上10点在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度全球央行行长会议上发表。这次会议的主题是“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导”,会议将持续到周六。这一次,他的任务将是确认市场的预期,同时也表明他对经济的看法,特别是通胀压力的缓和以及对劳动力市场的一些担忧。高盛经济学家David Mericle在最近的一份报告中说:“我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更多的信心,并比他在7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”高盛对美联储利率前景的预期与市场基本一致:预计美联储在接下来的三次会议每次都会降息,然后加大宽松力度,最终将联邦基金利率削减约200个基点。该行认为,鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔会议上非常笼统地预告这一政策路径。鲍威尔周五将在全球央行年会上重磅发声,料将保留激进宽松选项美银认为,鲍威尔不会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,问题是鲍威尔很难比市场预期更加鸽派。市场普遍预计美联储将在9月17-18日的下次会议上降息,但对于降息幅度存在一些分歧。虽然大多数经济学家预计降息25个基点,但包括花旗和摩根大通在内的一些预测机构预计,美联储将降息50个基点。美国银行预测,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的讲话不太可能对美元产生太大影响。该行的分析师指出,基金仍对美元走强持乐观态度,这可能会带来下行风险。“但是,即使鲍威尔的讲话偏向鸽派,他的语气也很难比市场预期的更加鸽派。”美银表示,市场定价了今年降息四次, “我们不认为鲍威尔会违背市场定价,他将保留激进宽松的选项,这取决于9月会议前的数据。”一个进一步的信号可能是,鲍威尔是否更坚定地表示,委员会希望避免劳动力市场出现“意想不到的疲软”,而不是简单地在它发生后做出反应。此外,他可能会参考6月份的预测摘要,并表示委员会可能会逐步调整政策,以在前景不确定的情况下平衡风险。杰克逊霍尔年会前猛“吹风”:美联储官员支持很快开始降息,主张渐进式降息波士顿联储主席柯林斯和费城联储主希拉克认为很快开始降息是合适的,开始宽松时应循序渐进。堪萨斯联储主席施密德则表示,他还没有准备好支持降息。两位美联储官员表示,他们认为美联储很快开始降息是合适的,随后的降息步伐应该是“渐进的”、“有条不紊的”。波士顿联储主席柯林斯在接受彭博新闻社和福克斯商业台采访时使用了这些说法,而费城联储主希拉克在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔接受路透社和CNBC采访时也使用了类似的措辞。两人都没有更准确地说明这些术语对降息频率的具体含义。大摩:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔发表演讲前,要想清楚这一点!摩根士丹利预计,鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,特别是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张。我们预计美联储主席鲍威尔将阐述美联储的中期战略,尤其是持续的反通胀意味着美联储可以专注于维持经济扩张,同时仍能实现2%的通胀目标。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已经发出了准备开始降息的信号,但鲍威尔可能会指出,即使在降息之后,政策仍将是紧缩的。事实上,一个至关重要的话题可能是区分水平和趋势。经济活动正在放缓,但并不特别疲软。就业市场有所降温,但即使是7月份新增11.5万个岗位也并非特别疲软。市场将决定什么更重要——水平还是趋势。失业率从低点上升0.8个百分点是另一场水平与趋势之争。失业率上升预示着经济衰退,这一历史关系已被广泛提及。这一次,失业率的上升因劳动力供应而放大。换句话说,4.3%的失业率仍然是一个较低的水平,其上升趋势所蕴含的信号比过去要少得多。水平与趋势是一个关键的区别,事实上,市场经常会交易另一个概念,即加速或减速。我猜测鲍威尔的讲话至少会暗中强调这一区别。经济可以从不可持续的快节奏中放缓,同时仍能健康地摆脱衰退。这一区别支撑了我们的观点,即美联储将在连续几次会议上降息25个基点。本周,所有的焦点都将集中在鲍威尔身上!上次鲍威尔一说话,市场暴跌,那这次呢?去年8月,美联储的主要问题是利率需要在20年高位维持多久才能抑制通胀。现在,随着通胀出现新的降温迹象和就业市场放缓,问题不再是美联储是否会降息,而是该降息多少?投资者将密切关注鲍威尔于北京时间周五晚10点发表的讲话,届时他将有机会提供有关美联储未来货币政策路径的线索。传统上,美联储主席都会利用他们在杰克逊霍尔的讲话来传递重要的、长期的政策信息。前美联储主席伯南克在2010年的讲话中提出了一种论点,即美联储可以通过购买债券来推动经济增长,这种工具也被称为量化宽松(QE)。鲍威尔在2018年的“星光指引”演讲中,概述了他对自然实际利率的思考方式,即既不会刺激也不会抑制增长的利率。这可能是他作为主席最令人难忘的演讲。2022年,鲍威尔在一次比以往更简短的演讲中,承诺将尽一切努力使通胀回到美联储2% 的目标,并警告称更高的利率可能会带来痛苦和更高的失业率,从而导致市场暴跌。高盛:鲍威尔将更加鸽派!高盛预计,美联储将在9月、11月和12月连续三次降息25个基点,并预计明年还将有进一步的降息。市场对即将于周五举行的杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上鲍威尔的讲话充满期待。这次讲话对于塑造市场对未来可能的降息预期至关重要。高盛研究部首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克尔(David Mericle)在最近的报告中写道:“鉴于自上次FOMC会议后发布的数据,我们预计鲍威尔将对通胀前景表达更大的信心,并更加强调劳动力市场的下行风险。”梅里克尔写道:“鉴于消费者价格指数(CPI)报告疲软、就业增长数据不佳以及失业率的进一步上升,我们预计鲍威尔将会提供比7月FOMC会议后的新闻发布会上更为鸽派的信息。”市场眼光聚集!鲍威尔周五究竟会带来什么样的“震撼”?鲍威尔本周五“很忙”,他不仅需要给出足够有力降息理由,还不能引发市场的担忧……对于关注鲍威尔讲话的人,尤其是在债券市场上的人来说,一个关键问题是,另一份疲软的就业报告是否会为下个月的大幅降息敞开大门,或者迫使美联储在接下来的几个月内采取积极的降息措施。“有争论说,美联储一开始可以稍微快一点降息,然后放慢速度,”德意志银行美国首席经济学家Matthew Luzzetti表示。“我认为,只有当有证据表明劳动力市场正在以更加显著的方式走弱时,这种论点才会真正具有分量。”鲍威尔在今年的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上传达的信息可能至关重要:美联储9月降息的理由必须足够有力,以应对今年大选期间围绕美联储的政治压力。这可能涉及指出就业市场放缓和经济增长疲软。但MacroPolicy Perspectives高级经济学家Laura Rosner-Warburton表示,他不会想对经济前景发出过于消极的信息,“为了防止发出负面信号,美联储需要在沟通上非常明确。”顶级经济学家:鲍威尔应抓住杰克逊霍尔的“黄金机会”安联首席经济学家表示,美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。欢迎来到杰克逊霍尔周。此次会议将讨论近期的经济和金融发展、政策问题及其对央行的意义。今年美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲备受期待,因为美国正经历着经济的不确定性和金融市场的波动,并且这些问题正在向全世界扩散。在这样一个充满真实不确定性的情境下——包括美国国内和全球层面的不确定性,这种不确定性因三个关键稳定锚点的侵蚀而加剧:稳定的经济增长、有效的前瞻性政策指引以及市场参与者中过高的杠杆率和过度的风险承担行为。这就是为什么鲍威尔需要利用本周五这个黄金机会来重夺经济和政策叙事的话语权。今年美联储的首要目标应该是重新建立其前瞻性政策指引的有效性。鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上说什么?别期望太高鲍威尔的语气,而非言辞,是维持市场情绪的关键。期权交易员预计标普500指数周五将上下波动1%。华尔街押注美联储主席鲍威尔将在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行年度会议上确认降息。但随着争论从“会不会降息”转向“降息幅度会有多大”,股票交易员可能会无法满足期望。Steward Partners Global Advisory财富管理执行董事总经理埃里克-贝利(Eric Beiley)说:“如果交易员们听到降息即将到来,股市就会做出有利的反应。如果我们没有听到我们想要的消息,那将引发大跌。”这正是资金经理们所面临的挑战,他们刚刚纷纷重投大型科技股,追逐标普500指数的不断攀升。市场完全预期美联储将在即将于9月召开的会议上开始降息。但鲍威尔在周五发表讲话时,很容易对降息时机保持缄默。而且,在透露美联储可能会降息多少时,采取谨慎、不置可否的态度也非常符合他的性格。“鲍威尔不需要吓唬市场,”Homrich Berg的兰说。“他需要让市场相信,通胀正在消退,官员们可以放心地将限制性利率降至更为中性的水平。”市场将作何反应?交易员在杰克逊霍尔央行年会前做空美元,日元涨声一片周一美元跌至七个月低点,期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌。周一美元跌至七个月低点,日元创下逾一周新高。交易员在等待美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本周的言论,预计这些言论将发出美联储将于9月开始降息的信号。另一个主要焦点将是鲍威尔是否表示今后每次会议都可能降息,但市场可能高估了美联储可能采取行动的程度和速度。目前期权交易员押注美元将进一步下跌,因预期鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上强化降息的理由。一篮子美元主要贸易伙伴的货币对风险逆转指数显示,交易员为在未来一周或一个月内美元下跌时受益的期权支付的价格高于那些寻求上涨的期权。以史为鉴,杰克逊霍尔年会更可能助涨股市数据显示,美股在杰克逊霍尔年会前后两周涨多跌少。DataTrek联合创始人尼古拉斯-科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一通过电子邮件发送的一份说明中表示:“标普500指数(SPX)往往会在美联储杰克逊霍尔会议前后的两周内反弹,主要是在美联储主席发表讲话之后。我们预计今年也会出现同样的情况。”科拉斯说:“市场对美联储今年晚些时候降息的预期非常高。鲍威尔本周五在这个问题上应该会给市场足够的信心,从而在未来两周内出现典型的由杰克逊霍尔年会触发的上涨行情。”与此同时,根据DataTrek的数据,至少从企业最近的财报电话会议来看,它们似乎并不太担心短期内会出现经济衰退。鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔说什么,市场如何反应?分析师表示,鲍威尔或“适度反驳最近市场对降息周期过度的定价。”投资者将密切关注鲍威尔周五的演讲,寻找有关货币政策轨迹的任何暗示,包括美联储多年来首次降息的幅度以及后续降息的潜在速度。野村证券分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道:“鲍威尔可能会承认,如果劳动力市场恶化,美联储准备迅速放松政策。”“即便如此,我们预计他的言论将比7月份的新闻发布会更为平衡——同时也会指出通胀上行的风险。”美银证券分析师最近指出,标普500指数对杰克逊霍尔会议的历史反应有限。当然也有例外:2022年,鲍威尔在谈及恢复价格稳定必要性时采取了鹰派立场,股市随后大幅下跌。但他们预计,今年不太可能出现这种情况。分析师写道:“由于市场已经计入了降息的因素,即使是一个鸽派的杰克逊霍尔演讲所带来的上行空间也可能有限。”鲍威尔恐怕不敢大胆唱“鸽”,美元短期内凶多吉少?麦格理在近期的报告中指出,鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上的基调、即将到来的数据和政治事态发展将影响美元未来几周的走势。麦格理(Macquarie)分析师最近撰文指出,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表讲话时,预计将采取温和的语气,但不太可能过于鸽派。鲍威尔的基调以及即将到来的数据和政治事态发展,可能会在未来几周影响美元的走向。具体而言,他们指出:“我们不会对鲍威尔的温和基调感到惊讶,这可能会对外汇市场和投资者情绪产生影响。”他们补充道:“然而,我们怀疑鲍威尔是否会如此大胆地发出非常‘鸽派’的声音。”分析师们还指出,哈里斯在下周的民调中出现的任何集会后支持率的反弹都可能导致美元进一步走软。麦格理指出,在过去四周里,美元经历了显著的疲软,并将其归因于支持强势美元的“特朗普交易”的平仓。经济学家普遍认为,美联储越来越接近征服高通胀。不过,很少有经济学家认为鲍威尔或其他美联储官员准备宣布“任务完成”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}