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Ron71
2022-02-08
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@OptionPlus:期权复盘:猴市忌卖Put,用备兑做好头寸保护!
Ron71
2022-02-08
//
@Ron71
: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@Seven8:大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?
Ron71
2022-02-06
Great ariticle, would you like to share it?
@Seven8:大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?
Ron71
2022-02-03
666
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Ron71
2022-01-29
Happy Chinese New Year
Ron71
2021-12-18
When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?
Ron71
2021-12-13
666
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Ron71
2021-12-04
666
3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback
Ron71
2021-12-04
666
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Ron71
2021-12-04
666
Tesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale
Ron71
2021-11-19
666
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Ron71
2021-11-19
666
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Ron71
2021-11-12
666
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Ron71
2021-10-29
666
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Ron71
2021-10-27
666
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Ron71
2021-10-23
666
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Ron71
2021-09-30
666
2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","listText":"虎友们新年好,虎年大吉,给大家拜年啦!😬 这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","text":"虎友们新年好,虎年大吉,给大家拜年啦!😬 这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24e9aefd68e3dc0c65797a36f195f3d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3527ad2dca49d0f77f05fdbd7bea414","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22f11d54a7115579d36dc68b07cd79d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633260016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633446904,"gmtCreate":1644300099260,"gmtModify":1644300099371,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron71</a>: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron71</a>: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"//@Ron71: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633446904","repostId":"633632817","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633632817,"gmtCreate":1643985314614,"gmtModify":1644019469417,"author":{"id":"20703384576125","authorId":"20703384576125","name":"Seven8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c5325d49ab0fd75150e915a280d214","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?","htmlText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","listText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","text":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633632817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633284611,"gmtCreate":1644131149588,"gmtModify":1644131149656,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633284611","repostId":"633632817","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633632817,"gmtCreate":1643985314614,"gmtModify":1644019469417,"author":{"id":"20703384576125","authorId":"20703384576125","name":"Seven8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c5325d49ab0fd75150e915a280d214","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?","htmlText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","listText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","text":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633632817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633191227,"gmtCreate":1643821465045,"gmtModify":1643821465045,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633191227","repostId":"2208350702","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639794614,"gmtCreate":1643430335512,"gmtModify":1643430335578,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Chinese New Year ","listText":"Happy Chinese New Year ","text":"Happy Chinese New Year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639794614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699295129,"gmtCreate":1639803491180,"gmtModify":1639803491290,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","listText":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","text":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699295129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604845241,"gmtCreate":1639376411521,"gmtModify":1639376411624,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604845241","repostId":"1165968219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608934244,"gmtCreate":1638592857502,"gmtModify":1638592857502,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608934244","repostId":"1115344844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115344844","pubTimestamp":1638544099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115344844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115344844","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that b","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Upstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.</li>\n <li>Zscaler continues to impress with recent results showing accelerated growth again. The shares went up immediately after the report but reversed down in the general wash out.</li>\n <li>Monday.com is a fairly new company and it also got hit by the market. Its high growth profile, rapidly improving profitability, and reasonable valuation makes it an interesting stock pick.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aac50f1e4e4115b0d38a5ec6c15c267\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1139\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I started writing this article one week ago with the goal to review Upstart's recent quarterly results. Since in my last article, I argued that Upstart (UPST) might still be an attractive buying opportunity at $390 a share, I wanted to check on the company (currently trading around $180 –<i>yikes!</i>).</p>\n<p>However, the recent market sell-off, especially in high-growth names, made me reconsider the direction of the article. I think it is much more interesting right now to write about some high-growth names in my portfolio that I am considering adding during this little downturn.</p>\n<p>A little caveat upfront, though. I am really bad at short-term calls (as evidenced by my recent Upstart article). I have no idea what the Omicron variant will do to our economy, what the Fed's monetary policy will be in the future and how far this sell-off will go eventually. By the time this article is published, the sell-off might already have reversed. Or it might have gotten much worse. I simply don't know.</p>\n<p>What I do know is that there are companies in the public markets with exceptional business fundamentals that <b>will do very well regardless of the macro environment</b>. These are businesses with high growth rates, high margins, and long runways of growth. They also have high valuation multiples which lead to increased risk and high volatility. Taking advantage of that volatility is a great way to increase your returns. Here are some stocks that I consider buying right now:</p>\n<p><b>Upstart</b></p>\n<p>Let's start with the one I originally wanted to write about: To summarize shortly, I think that if you liked Upstart at $390, you should like it much more at $180. The earnings release for Q3 2021 was not as bad as the market's reaction might suggest. Yes, expectations were lofty based on an exceptional Q2 report, and yes, these expectations were not entirely met in Q3. But that does not mean that the fundamental picture has deteriorated. What the wild price swings of the past prove, and I have written about in the past, is that this young company is difficult to value. Growth is high, but also hard to predict. And while the disruption of the FICO score through AI technology is enticing and seems inevitable, Upstart's role in that story is not set in stone.</p>\n<p>Let's look at some numbers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b085c5134a9e376f177da8f5fa2674e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b826680751b139c569c90d0d3be483cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>As you can see, revenue growth is still explosive, and with a normal beat should accelerate again into Q4 on a sequential basis. And while most key performance indicators (loans transacted, conversion rate, percentage of automated loans) together with margins all decelerated or went down slightly, I don't think that this means the fundamentals have changed with this company. There were many details mentioned in the earnings call that I won't discuss in this article format. But the key takeaway for me was that management seemed very upbeat about the future of the company.</p>\n<p>I think there are two key mistakes that investors should avoid here:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Let the disappointment of a \"not-so-blowout\" quarter and a devastating price action make you blind to this investment opportunity. This was still a very good quarter and now that the shares have fallen off a cliff the stock is much more attractive.</li>\n <li>Do not look at Upstart through the lens of SaaS businesses. As I wrote in May:<i>Upstart might be a high-promising cloud software company but it does not have a SaaS business model. There is</i> <i><b>no recurring revenue</b></i> <i>to fall back on in tough times, no sticky subscription customers, no backlog, no land and expand. Every quarter Upstart has to sell new loans, and revenue basically starts from zero.</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Upstart's financials are lumpier and less reliable and as a result, the company deserves much more investor attention and a lower valuation multiple than high growth companies with recurring revenues. However, if growth stays very high, it could more than make up for that fact. Currently, the company is trading at a 17.76 forward EV/S, which I think is a relative bargain for a company with this growth and margin profile.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15592919228dec8ee2403898d69ef228\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Zscaler</b></p>\n<p>Sometimes the market gives you a gift that you should not refuse. This is what happened with Zscaler (ZS) yesterday. The stock initially was up in the postmarket after the company reported another blow-out quarter on Tuesday. But on Wednesday it all didn't matter anymore and thanks to the little correction, sector rotation, or whatever you want to call it, the stock actually went <b>down by more than 8%</b>. This is really a time when you want to buy: You just got confirmation that your company is doing incredibly well with growth accelerating and the stock sells off for macro concerns. The stock is definitely not cheap at a forward EV/S of 43.51 and, of course, this \"pull-back\" is laughable (<i>\"oh my god, the stock is back to where it was...one month ago\"</i>).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79ff3fce3101896f17b65ced143c037\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>But I like to own companies that are doing exceptional things and I don't mind paying up for them, especially in a turbulent market.</p>\n<p>How exceptional is Zscaler? Just look at those revenue growth numbers:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3def4410c8c903a03041a2cd51b36979\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author.</span></p>\n<p>I thought in May that growth acceleration might end soon, but it has continued to accelerate in Q1 2022. If the company beats its guidance in Q2 in a similar fashion to the past (usually more than 5%), it should accelerate year-on-year growth again in Q2 (or at least maintain the current 60%+ growth rate). On top of that, this quarter saw <b>RPO growing 98%, a dollar-based net retention rate of 125%, and FCF margins of 36%</b>. In other words, this business is firing on all cylinders. If you don't know what Zscaler does,read my article from December 2018 – the stock is up 710% since then, and I think it can go even higher.</p>\n<p><b>Monday.com</b></p>\n<p>Monday.com (MNDY) is a company that is a relatively new stock in the public markets (it IPOed in June this year) and a completely new stock in my portfolio (I just bought my first position). In a nutshell, the reason why I bought Monday.com is their hyper-growth and rapidly improving profitability. Just look at these two slides from the most recent earnings call presentation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b07658237c02685eb3d049a537ba61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings call presentation Q3 2021.</span></p>\n<p>Revenue was <b>up 95%</b>(up from 94% in the last quarter). This is quite astounding growth which indicates that this company is winning in the market (but also consider that the company is at a small annual revenue run rate, which makes it a bit easier). The number of enterprise customerswith more than $50K ARRwas <b>up 231%</b>(at 613, up from 185 a year ago). Monday was also <b>cash flow positive</b> for the first time this quarter.</p>\n<p>On top of that, it is also cheap relative to other cloud stocks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e6afbf54bdde4ad31dd3aaa06d0073\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Clouded Judgement 11.26.21.</span></p>\n<p>The company currently has a TTM EV/S of 57, and a 2022 EV/S of 38.7, based on analysts' expectation of 47% growth in 2022. That seems rich but not terribly so relative to other cloud names. The growth expectation of 47% in 2022, however, seems quite low if you consider the current growth of 95% year-on-year and 17% sequentially, plus the current momentum in larger customers. Actually, anything below 70% growth in FY 2022 would come as a surprise to me, and then we are looking at a maximum forward EV/S of 33.</p>\n<p>The big question going forward – in terms of if Monday.com will be a good long-term investment – is to which extent Monday.com can maintain its high growth rate beyond FY 2022. Here I do have some doubts still. The company is operating in a very dynamic and competitive field and I am not yet sure where Monday differentiates itself meaningfully from companies like Asana (ASAN) or Atlassian (TEAM). Still, the market for cloud-based work management solutions is big and there can be many winners in the space. For the moment I'm happy to follow the numbers (which look fantastic) and hope that the relatively cheap valuation will result in substantial alpha and is not an indication of a lower quality company.</p>\n<p><b>Closing Thoughts And Honorary Mentions</b></p>\n<p>On days like these, there are many companies worth considering. For example, I haven't mentioned Datadog (DDOG) which reported another fantastic quarter at the beginning of November. Like Zscaler, this is also a company with accelerating growth that you can buy at a lower price than it was before it reported its blowout results.</p>\n<p>Remember that the stocks mentioned, even though they may look attractive from a relative perspective, are still very expensive in absolute terms and from a historical perspective. However, sustainable growth is a beautiful form of downside protection for investors and the best antidote to \"overvaluation\" that I know. If I learned one thing in the last four years investing in high-growth SaaS/cloud stocks, it is to stay invested in the companies that sustain (or preferably accelerate) their top-line growth and get out of the stocks that see slowdowns. That sounds terribly simplistic and of course, many other factors play a role in a stock's long-term gains, but revenue growth and its endurance have been the predominant factors in the past.</p>\n<p>This pull-back is far from the worst I have seen in recent years. But it is still painful – and when it starts to hurt, it is usually a good time to buy some quality companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 23:08 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.\nZscaler continues to impress ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","ZS":"Zscaler Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115344844","content_text":"Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.\nZscaler continues to impress with recent results showing accelerated growth again. The shares went up immediately after the report but reversed down in the general wash out.\nMonday.com is a fairly new company and it also got hit by the market. Its high growth profile, rapidly improving profitability, and reasonable valuation makes it an interesting stock pick.\n\nGaleanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images\nI started writing this article one week ago with the goal to review Upstart's recent quarterly results. Since in my last article, I argued that Upstart (UPST) might still be an attractive buying opportunity at $390 a share, I wanted to check on the company (currently trading around $180 –yikes!).\nHowever, the recent market sell-off, especially in high-growth names, made me reconsider the direction of the article. I think it is much more interesting right now to write about some high-growth names in my portfolio that I am considering adding during this little downturn.\nA little caveat upfront, though. I am really bad at short-term calls (as evidenced by my recent Upstart article). I have no idea what the Omicron variant will do to our economy, what the Fed's monetary policy will be in the future and how far this sell-off will go eventually. By the time this article is published, the sell-off might already have reversed. Or it might have gotten much worse. I simply don't know.\nWhat I do know is that there are companies in the public markets with exceptional business fundamentals that will do very well regardless of the macro environment. These are businesses with high growth rates, high margins, and long runways of growth. They also have high valuation multiples which lead to increased risk and high volatility. Taking advantage of that volatility is a great way to increase your returns. Here are some stocks that I consider buying right now:\nUpstart\nLet's start with the one I originally wanted to write about: To summarize shortly, I think that if you liked Upstart at $390, you should like it much more at $180. The earnings release for Q3 2021 was not as bad as the market's reaction might suggest. Yes, expectations were lofty based on an exceptional Q2 report, and yes, these expectations were not entirely met in Q3. But that does not mean that the fundamental picture has deteriorated. What the wild price swings of the past prove, and I have written about in the past, is that this young company is difficult to value. Growth is high, but also hard to predict. And while the disruption of the FICO score through AI technology is enticing and seems inevitable, Upstart's role in that story is not set in stone.\nLet's look at some numbers:\n\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, revenue growth is still explosive, and with a normal beat should accelerate again into Q4 on a sequential basis. And while most key performance indicators (loans transacted, conversion rate, percentage of automated loans) together with margins all decelerated or went down slightly, I don't think that this means the fundamentals have changed with this company. There were many details mentioned in the earnings call that I won't discuss in this article format. But the key takeaway for me was that management seemed very upbeat about the future of the company.\nI think there are two key mistakes that investors should avoid here:\n\nLet the disappointment of a \"not-so-blowout\" quarter and a devastating price action make you blind to this investment opportunity. This was still a very good quarter and now that the shares have fallen off a cliff the stock is much more attractive.\nDo not look at Upstart through the lens of SaaS businesses. As I wrote in May:Upstart might be a high-promising cloud software company but it does not have a SaaS business model. There is no recurring revenue to fall back on in tough times, no sticky subscription customers, no backlog, no land and expand. Every quarter Upstart has to sell new loans, and revenue basically starts from zero.\n\nUpstart's financials are lumpier and less reliable and as a result, the company deserves much more investor attention and a lower valuation multiple than high growth companies with recurring revenues. However, if growth stays very high, it could more than make up for that fact. Currently, the company is trading at a 17.76 forward EV/S, which I think is a relative bargain for a company with this growth and margin profile.\nData by YCharts\nZscaler\nSometimes the market gives you a gift that you should not refuse. This is what happened with Zscaler (ZS) yesterday. The stock initially was up in the postmarket after the company reported another blow-out quarter on Tuesday. But on Wednesday it all didn't matter anymore and thanks to the little correction, sector rotation, or whatever you want to call it, the stock actually went down by more than 8%. This is really a time when you want to buy: You just got confirmation that your company is doing incredibly well with growth accelerating and the stock sells off for macro concerns. The stock is definitely not cheap at a forward EV/S of 43.51 and, of course, this \"pull-back\" is laughable (\"oh my god, the stock is back to where it was...one month ago\").\nData by YCharts\nBut I like to own companies that are doing exceptional things and I don't mind paying up for them, especially in a turbulent market.\nHow exceptional is Zscaler? Just look at those revenue growth numbers:\nSource: Author.\nI thought in May that growth acceleration might end soon, but it has continued to accelerate in Q1 2022. If the company beats its guidance in Q2 in a similar fashion to the past (usually more than 5%), it should accelerate year-on-year growth again in Q2 (or at least maintain the current 60%+ growth rate). On top of that, this quarter saw RPO growing 98%, a dollar-based net retention rate of 125%, and FCF margins of 36%. In other words, this business is firing on all cylinders. If you don't know what Zscaler does,read my article from December 2018 – the stock is up 710% since then, and I think it can go even higher.\nMonday.com\nMonday.com (MNDY) is a company that is a relatively new stock in the public markets (it IPOed in June this year) and a completely new stock in my portfolio (I just bought my first position). In a nutshell, the reason why I bought Monday.com is their hyper-growth and rapidly improving profitability. Just look at these two slides from the most recent earnings call presentation:\nSource: Earnings call presentation Q3 2021.\nRevenue was up 95%(up from 94% in the last quarter). This is quite astounding growth which indicates that this company is winning in the market (but also consider that the company is at a small annual revenue run rate, which makes it a bit easier). The number of enterprise customerswith more than $50K ARRwas up 231%(at 613, up from 185 a year ago). Monday was also cash flow positive for the first time this quarter.\nOn top of that, it is also cheap relative to other cloud stocks:\nSource: Clouded Judgement 11.26.21.\nThe company currently has a TTM EV/S of 57, and a 2022 EV/S of 38.7, based on analysts' expectation of 47% growth in 2022. That seems rich but not terribly so relative to other cloud names. The growth expectation of 47% in 2022, however, seems quite low if you consider the current growth of 95% year-on-year and 17% sequentially, plus the current momentum in larger customers. Actually, anything below 70% growth in FY 2022 would come as a surprise to me, and then we are looking at a maximum forward EV/S of 33.\nThe big question going forward – in terms of if Monday.com will be a good long-term investment – is to which extent Monday.com can maintain its high growth rate beyond FY 2022. Here I do have some doubts still. The company is operating in a very dynamic and competitive field and I am not yet sure where Monday differentiates itself meaningfully from companies like Asana (ASAN) or Atlassian (TEAM). Still, the market for cloud-based work management solutions is big and there can be many winners in the space. For the moment I'm happy to follow the numbers (which look fantastic) and hope that the relatively cheap valuation will result in substantial alpha and is not an indication of a lower quality company.\nClosing Thoughts And Honorary Mentions\nOn days like these, there are many companies worth considering. For example, I haven't mentioned Datadog (DDOG) which reported another fantastic quarter at the beginning of November. Like Zscaler, this is also a company with accelerating growth that you can buy at a lower price than it was before it reported its blowout results.\nRemember that the stocks mentioned, even though they may look attractive from a relative perspective, are still very expensive in absolute terms and from a historical perspective. However, sustainable growth is a beautiful form of downside protection for investors and the best antidote to \"overvaluation\" that I know. If I learned one thing in the last four years investing in high-growth SaaS/cloud stocks, it is to stay invested in the companies that sustain (or preferably accelerate) their top-line growth and get out of the stocks that see slowdowns. That sounds terribly simplistic and of course, many other factors play a role in a stock's long-term gains, but revenue growth and its endurance have been the predominant factors in the past.\nThis pull-back is far from the worst I have seen in recent years. But it is still painful – and when it starts to hurt, it is usually a good time to buy some quality companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608934375,"gmtCreate":1638592750598,"gmtModify":1638592750598,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608934375","repostId":"1192973257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608935857,"gmtCreate":1638592660874,"gmtModify":1638592660874,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608935857","repostId":"1158981658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158981658","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1638545456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158981658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158981658","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 3 - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million","content":"<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.</p>\n<p>He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.</p>\n<p>Here is a string of transactions he has done:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DATE</td>\n <td>SHARES ACQUIRED</td>\n <td>SHARES SOLD</td>\n <td>GROSS PROCEEDS</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td>2.2 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.10 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 9</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>3.1 mln</td>\n <td>$3.35 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 10</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>500,000</td>\n <td>$527.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 11</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>639,737</td>\n <td>$687.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 12</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>1.2 mln</td>\n <td>$1.24 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$930.7 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$973.4 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 23</td>\n <td>2.15 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.05 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DEC. 2</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.01 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>10.7 mln</td>\n <td>10.1 mln</td>\n <td>$10.87 bln</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>HOW DID MUSK SELL?</b></p>\n<p>Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.</p>\n<p>The tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.</p>\n<p>Following a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-03 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.</p>\n<p>He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.</p>\n<p>Here is a string of transactions he has done:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DATE</td>\n <td>SHARES ACQUIRED</td>\n <td>SHARES SOLD</td>\n <td>GROSS PROCEEDS</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td>2.2 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.10 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 9</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>3.1 mln</td>\n <td>$3.35 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 10</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>500,000</td>\n <td>$527.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 11</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>639,737</td>\n <td>$687.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 12</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>1.2 mln</td>\n <td>$1.24 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$930.7 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$973.4 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 23</td>\n <td>2.15 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.05 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DEC. 2</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.01 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>10.7 mln</td>\n <td>10.1 mln</td>\n <td>$10.87 bln</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>HOW DID MUSK SELL?</b></p>\n<p>Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.</p>\n<p>The tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.</p>\n<p>Following a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158981658","content_text":"Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.\nHe has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.\nHere is a string of transactions he has done:\n\n\n\nDATE\nSHARES ACQUIRED\nSHARES SOLD\nGROSS PROCEEDS\n\n\nNOV. 8\n2.2 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 8\n\n934,091\n$1.10 bln\n\n\nNOV. 9\n\n3.1 mln\n$3.35 bln\n\n\nNOV. 10\n\n500,000\n$527.3 mln\n\n\nNOV. 11\n\n639,737\n$687.3 mln\n\n\nNOV. 12\n\n1.2 mln\n$1.24 bln\n\n\nNOV. 15\n2.1 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 15\n\n934,091\n$930.7 mln\n\n\nNOV. 16\n2.1 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 16\n\n934,091\n$973.4 mln\n\n\nNOV. 23\n2.15 mln\n934,091\n$1.05 bln\n\n\nDEC. 2\n2.1 mln\n934,091\n$1.01 bln\n\n\nTotal\n10.7 mln\n10.1 mln\n$10.87 bln\n\n\n\nHOW DID MUSK SELL?\nMusk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.\nThe tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.\nFollowing a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876253871,"gmtCreate":1637323414161,"gmtModify":1637323414250,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876253871","repostId":"1153113708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876253971,"gmtCreate":1637323374962,"gmtModify":1637323381386,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876253971","repostId":"2184891256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879386948,"gmtCreate":1636682372301,"gmtModify":1636683157813,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879386948","repostId":"1104158261","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854756625,"gmtCreate":1635486710483,"gmtModify":1635486710617,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854756625","repostId":"1178207364","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855956467,"gmtCreate":1635328170988,"gmtModify":1635328170988,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855956467","repostId":"2178282200","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858961194,"gmtCreate":1634964316797,"gmtModify":1634964316902,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858961194","repostId":"1168180190","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865288808,"gmtCreate":1632987475507,"gmtModify":1632987475611,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865288808","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. 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The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. 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Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":699295129,"gmtCreate":1639803491180,"gmtModify":1639803491290,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","listText":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","text":"When is SPH Keppel scheme meeting going to be held. It supposed to be held on 8 Dec 2021 but postpone. When will SPH announce?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699295129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608935857,"gmtCreate":1638592660874,"gmtModify":1638592660874,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608935857","repostId":"1158981658","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158981658","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1638545456,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158981658?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158981658","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 3 - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million","content":"<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.</p>\n<p>He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.</p>\n<p>Here is a string of transactions he has done:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DATE</td>\n <td>SHARES ACQUIRED</td>\n <td>SHARES SOLD</td>\n <td>GROSS PROCEEDS</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td>2.2 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.10 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 9</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>3.1 mln</td>\n <td>$3.35 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 10</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>500,000</td>\n <td>$527.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 11</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>639,737</td>\n <td>$687.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 12</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>1.2 mln</td>\n <td>$1.24 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$930.7 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$973.4 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 23</td>\n <td>2.15 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.05 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DEC. 2</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.01 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>10.7 mln</td>\n <td>10.1 mln</td>\n <td>$10.87 bln</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>HOW DID MUSK SELL?</b></p>\n<p>Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.</p>\n<p>The tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.</p>\n<p>Following a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Musk over halfway through his pledge with nearly $11 bln stake sale\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-03 23:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.</p>\n<p>He has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.</p>\n<p>Here is a string of transactions he has done:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td>DATE</td>\n <td>SHARES ACQUIRED</td>\n <td>SHARES SOLD</td>\n <td>GROSS PROCEEDS</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td>2.2 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 8</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.10 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 9</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>3.1 mln</td>\n <td>$3.35 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 10</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>500,000</td>\n <td>$527.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 11</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>639,737</td>\n <td>$687.3 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 12</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>1.2 mln</td>\n <td>$1.24 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 15</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$930.7 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td></td>\n <td></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 16</td>\n <td></td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$973.4 mln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>NOV. 23</td>\n <td>2.15 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.05 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>DEC. 2</td>\n <td>2.1 mln</td>\n <td>934,091</td>\n <td>$1.01 bln</td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td>Total</td>\n <td>10.7 mln</td>\n <td>10.1 mln</td>\n <td>$10.87 bln</td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>HOW DID MUSK SELL?</b></p>\n<p>Musk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.</p>\n<p>The tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.</p>\n<p>Following a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158981658","content_text":"Dec 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk has sold nearly $11 billion worth of shares since the world's richest person polled Twitter users about offloading 10% of his stake in the electric-car maker.\nHe has sold a combined 10.1 million shares, which is over half of the stake that he had pledged to sell, and has acquired 10.7 million shares by exercising options, since Nov. 8.\nHere is a string of transactions he has done:\n\n\n\nDATE\nSHARES ACQUIRED\nSHARES SOLD\nGROSS PROCEEDS\n\n\nNOV. 8\n2.2 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 8\n\n934,091\n$1.10 bln\n\n\nNOV. 9\n\n3.1 mln\n$3.35 bln\n\n\nNOV. 10\n\n500,000\n$527.3 mln\n\n\nNOV. 11\n\n639,737\n$687.3 mln\n\n\nNOV. 12\n\n1.2 mln\n$1.24 bln\n\n\nNOV. 15\n2.1 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 15\n\n934,091\n$930.7 mln\n\n\nNOV. 16\n2.1 mln\n\n\n\n\nNOV. 16\n\n934,091\n$973.4 mln\n\n\nNOV. 23\n2.15 mln\n934,091\n$1.05 bln\n\n\nDEC. 2\n2.1 mln\n934,091\n$1.01 bln\n\n\nTotal\n10.7 mln\n10.1 mln\n$10.87 bln\n\n\n\nHOW DID MUSK SELL?\nMusk said on Nov. 6 he would sell 10% of his stake if Twitter users agreed. He owned a combination of about 244 million shares through his trust and stock options, bringing his stake in Tesla to about 23% as of June 30. It included 170 million shares held by his trust.\nThe tweet was vague. Musk did not outline if he was intending to offload 10% of his shares he indirectly owned through the trust or if his stock options were also part of the deal.\nFollowing a flurry of options exercise, Musk still has an option to buy about 10 million more shares at $6.24 each, which expires in August next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633284611,"gmtCreate":1644131149588,"gmtModify":1644131149656,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633284611","repostId":"633632817","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633632817,"gmtCreate":1643985314614,"gmtModify":1644019469417,"author":{"id":"20703384576125","authorId":"20703384576125","name":"Seven8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c5325d49ab0fd75150e915a280d214","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?","htmlText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","listText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","text":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633632817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633191227,"gmtCreate":1643821465045,"gmtModify":1643821465045,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633191227","repostId":"2208350702","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865288808,"gmtCreate":1632987475507,"gmtModify":1632987475611,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865288808","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104172212","pubTimestamp":1632965278,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104172212?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 09:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104172212","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.</li>\n <li>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.</li>\n <li>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. <b>We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.</b></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Another worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.</p>\n<p>The conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.</p>\n<p><b>Cycle still in recovery phase</b></p>\n<p>The post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a91fe2991463e2285879c32cb1b8c7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.</p>\n<p><b>GDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/577d1b96aef08b71c9bdb6665a21b2ac\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Two key indicators</b></p>\n<p>Last quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.</p>\n<p>The first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13f3cf57b58f600fe6681e9015779e85\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.</p>\n<p><b>WATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d3ff1ca26f6d29a28f919c65531c9a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Reopening trade still makes sense</b></p>\n<p>The reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.</p>\n<p>The reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.</p>\n<p>The rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.</p>\n<p>Emerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.</p>\n<p>The resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.</p>\n<p><b>Risks: variants, inflation, China weakness</b></p>\n<p>The key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.</p>\n<p>Another watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.</p>\n<p>Finally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.</p>\n<p><b>Regional snapshotsUnited States</b></p>\n<p>The U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.</p>\n<p>Strong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>Wage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.</p>\n<p>Fiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be a<i>risk-on</i>preference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Eurozone</b></p>\n<p>Euro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.</p>\n<p><b>United Kingdom</b></p>\n<p>As of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.</p>\n<p><b>Japan</b></p>\n<p>The Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.</p>\n<p><b>China</b></p>\n<p>We expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.</p>\n<p><b>Canada</b></p>\n<p>Canada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.</p>\n<p>Tapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.</p>\n<p><b>Australia/New Zealand</b></p>\n<p>The Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.</p>\n<p>New Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.</p>\n<p><b>Asset-class preferences</b></p>\n<p>Our cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.</p>\n<p><b>COMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c527955abbc9e770d200c1d709f80d8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We prefer<b>non-U.S. equities</b>to U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.</li>\n <li><b>Emerging markets equities</b>have been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.</li>\n <li><b>High yield</b>and<b>investment grade credit</b>are expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominated<b>emerging markets debt</b>is close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.</li>\n <li><b>Government bonds</b>are expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.</li>\n <li><b>Real assets</b>: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.<b>Commodities</b>have been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.</li>\n <li>The<b>U.S. dollar</b>has been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be the<b>euro</b>, which is still undervalued. We also believe<b>British sterling</b>and the economically sensitive<i>commodity currencies</i>—the<b>Australian dollar</b>, the<b>New Zealand dollar</b>and the<b>Canadian dollar</b>—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e253becd38bd122d9fc211e7b0f583\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"982\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.</p>\n<p><b>Important Information</b></p>\n<p>The views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.</p>\n<p>Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.</p>\n<p>No model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.</p>\n<p>Forecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.</p>\n<p>Investment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.</p>\n<p>Currency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.</p>\n<p>Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.</p>\n<p>Bond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.</p>\n<p>Performance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.</p>\n<p>The FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.</p>\n<p>The MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.</p>\n<p>Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.</p>\n<p>Copyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.</p>\n<p>Frank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.</p>\n<p>Products and services described on this website are intended for<b>United States residents only</b>. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.</p>\n<p>Russell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 Global Market Outlook - Q4 Update: Growing Pains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-30 09:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457651-2021-global-market-outlook-q4-update-growing-pains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104172212","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor.\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter.\n\nThe COVID-19 delta variant, inflation and central bank tapering are unnerving investors. We expect the pandemic-recovery trade to resume as inflation subsides, infection rates decline and tapering turns out to not equal tightening. Amid this backdrop, our outlook favors equities over bonds, the value factor over the growth factor and non-U.S. stocks over U.S. stocks.\nIntroduction\nThe post-lockdown recovery has transitioned from energetic youthfulness to awkward adolescence. It’s still growing, although at a slower pace, and there are worries about what happens next, particularly about monetary policy and the outlook for inflation. Theinflation spikehas been larger than expected, but we still think it istransitory, caused by base effects from when the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) fell during the lockdown last year and by temporary supply bottlenecks. Inflation may remain high over the remainder of 2021 but should decline in early 2022. This means that even though the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to begin tapering back on asset purchases before the end of the year, rate hikes are unlikely before the second half of 2023.\nAnother worry is thehighly contagious COVID-19 delta variant. The evidence so far is that vaccines are effective in preventing serious COVID-19 infections. Vaccination rates are accelerating globally, and emerging economies are catching up with developed markets. Infection rates appear to have peaked globally in early September. This means the reopening of economies should continue over the remainder of 2021. The onset of winter in the northern hemisphere will be a test, but the rollout of booster vaccination shots should help prevent widescale renewed lockdowns.\nThe conclusions from our cycle, value and sentiment (CVS) investment decision-making process are broadly unchanged from our previous quarterly report. Global equities remain expensive, with the very expensive U.S. market offsetting better value elsewhere. Sentiment is slightly overbought, but not close to dangerous levels of euphoria. The strong cycle delivers a preference for equities over bonds for at least the next 12 months, despite expensive valuations. It also reinforces our preference for thevalue equity factor over the growth factorand for non-U.S. equities to outperform the U.S. market.\nCycle still in recovery phase\nThe post-lockdown recovery has been powerful, and most developed economies have seen double-digit gross domestic product (GDP) rebounds from 2020 lows. Even so, we think the cycle is still in the recovery phase, although it is maturing. Despite strong growth, there is plenty of spare capacity. This can be seen in the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers in the United States. The chart below shows the ratio has recovered from the pandemic lows, but only to levels reached during the relatively mild recessions in the early 1990s and 2000s. We expect theU.S. labor-market recoveryshould still resemble a typical post-recession recovery over the next few quarters.\nU.S. EMPLOYMENT-POPULATION RATIO FOR PRIME-AGE WORKERS\n\nThe U.S. recovery, however, is more advanced than that of other developed economies. The following chart shows how far GDP has recovered, relative to the pre-COVID-19 peak in 2019. GDP is 0.8% higher in the U.S., although this level is still short relative to the pre-COVID-19 trend. GDP is 2.5% below 2019 levels in the euro area and 4.5% below in the United Kingdom. We expect more cyclical upside for economic growth outside the U.S., and this should allow market leadership to rotate toward the rest of the world.\nGDP IN Q2 2021 RELATIVE TO PRE-COVID-19 PEAK IN 2019\n\nTwo key indicators\nLast quarter, we listed two indicators that should offer a guide to the Fed’s expected reaction to the inflation spike.\nThe first is five-year/five-year breakeven inflation expectations, based on the pricing of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). This is the market’s forecast for average inflation over five years in five years’ time. It tells us that investors expect inflation will average 2.17% in the five years from late 2026 to late 2031. The TIPS yields are based on the CPI, while the Fed targets inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. The two move together over time, but CPI inflation is generally around 0.25% higher than PCE inflation. A breakeven rate of 2.75% would suggest the market sees PCE inflation above 2.5% in five years’ time. Market inflation expectations are currently comfortably below the Fed’s worry point.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #1: U.S. 5-YEAR/5-YEAR BREAKEVEN INFLATION RATE\n\nThe second indicator is the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker, and this has a less-comforting message about inflation risks. It reached 3.9% in August, which isclose to the 4% thresholdwhere we judge that the Fed will become concerned about the inflationary impact on the growth of wages. A breakdown shows that the spike has been mostly driven by wages for low-skilled, young people in the leisure and hospitality industry. This suggests the surge has been caused by temporary labor supply shortages and that wage pressures should subside as economic activity normalizes. This indicator, however, will be an important watchpoint over the next few months.\nWATCHPOINT INDICATOR #2: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH TRACKER\n\nReopening trade still makes sense\nThe reopening trade, which lifts long-term interest rates and favors cyclical and value stocks over technology and growth stocks, worked well for several months following the vaccine announcement last November. Value outperformed growth and yield curves steepened. The trade has reversed in recent months, however, amid fears that the delta variant might derail the economic recovery. The impact has been magnified by short covering in bond markets as investors, who have been short or underweight, have been forced by the rally to buy back into the market, pushing bond yields even lower.\nThe reopening trade should resume in coming months. The cyclical stocks that comprise the value factor are reporting stronger earnings upgrades than technology-heavy growth stocks, and the value factor is cheap compared to the growth factor. Financial stocks comprise the largest sector in the MSCI World Value Index, and they should benefit from further yield-curve steepening, which boosts the profitability of banks. Long-term interest rates should rise as global growth remains above trend, delta-variant fears fade, the short squeeze unwinds and central banks begin tapering back on bond purchases.\nThe rotation in economic growth leadership away from the United States should also help the reopening trade. The rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks relative to the U.S., which has a higher weight to technology stocks.\nEmerging market (EM) equities have been poor performers since the vaccine announcement, but there are some encouraging signs. Initially, they were held back by the exposure to technology stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. More recently, they have come under pressure from the slowdown in the Chinese economy and theregulatory crackdown on Chinese tech companies. The vaccine rollout across emerging markets has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon improve the growth outlook. The path of Chinese regulation is harder to predict, but it is now largely priced in, with Chinese technology companies underperforming their global peers by nearly 50% from February 2021 through mid-September.\nThe resumption of the reopening trade should also result in U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has traded sideways since the vaccine announcement. It should weaken once investors have confidence that delta-variant risks are subsiding and realize that the Fed is likely to remain dovish as inflation risks decline. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. Dollar weakness should support the performance of non-U.S. markets, particularly emerging markets.\nRisks: variants, inflation, China weakness\nThe key risk is that the delta variant or similar proves resilient to vaccination or that infection rates escalate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The evidence so far is that vaccinations are highly effective in preventing serious illness. In Israel, booster shots appear to have slowed the rate of new cases.\nAnother watchpoint is inflation and the response of central banks. Our expectation is that this year’s inflation spike is mostly transitory and that the major central banks, led by the Fed, are still two years from raising interest rates.\nFinally, there is the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China.Credit growth has slowed this yearand the purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) have trended lower. Monetary and fiscal policy have been eased, however, and senior officials have signaled that more stimulus is on the way. China policy direction and credit trends will be an important watchpoint over coming months.\nRegional snapshotsUnited States\nThe U.S. economy is likely to sustain above-trend growth into 2022. However, the easiest gains appear in the rear-view mirror at the end of the third quarter as the recovery phase of the business cycle matures. This is most visible for corporate earnings, where S&P 500® Index earnings-per-share already sit 20% above their previous cyclical high.\nStrong fundamentals have helped power the stock market to new highs. Early evidence that the delta-variant wave may be fading and the potential for greater vaccine access for children are positives for a more complete recovery in the quarters ahead. The Fedlooks poised to start tapering its asset purchasesaround the end of 2021. The timing of the first rate hike will then hinge on what happens to inflation next year. Our models suggest that inflation is likely to drop back below the Fed’s 2% target in 2022. If that is correct, the Fed is likely to remain on hold into the second half of 2023.\nWage inflation is a key risk to this view. It is running unusually strong for this stage of the cycle, and record hiring intentions from businesses could exhaust spare capacity in the year ahead. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise moderately from 1.37% in mid-September to 1.75% in coming months.\nFiscal stimulus negotiations continue to grab headlines in Washington, D.C. Thetax provisions in these billsare likely to be the most impactful for financial markets. We estimate thathigher corporate taxescould subtract about four percentage points from S&P 500 earnings growth in 2022. This could create volatility and opportunity in markets. Given our strong cyclical outlook, our bias continues to be arisk-onpreference for equities over bonds for the medium-term.\nEurozone\nEuro area growthslowed through the third quarter but looks on track for a return to above-trend growth over the fourth quarter and into 2022. Vaccination rates are high, and the euro area has more catch-up potential than other major economies, particularly the United States. The euro area is also set to receive more fiscal support than other regions, with the European Union’s pandemic recovery fund only just starting to disburse stimulus, which will provide significant support in southern Europe. Polls in advance of Germany’s federal election on Sept. 26 suggested the electorate was moving toward the political left, which means the new government is likely to support expansionary fiscal policy and a continued dovish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB).\nThe MSCI EMU Index, which reflects the European Economic and Monetary Union, has performed broadly in line with the S&P 500 so far in 2021. We think it has potential to outperform in coming quarters. Europe’s exposure to financials and cyclically sensitive sectors such as industrials, materials and energy, and its relatively small exposure to technology, gives it the potential to outperform as delta-variant fears subside, economic activity picks up and yield curves in Europe steepen.\nUnited Kingdom\nAs of mid-year, UK GDP was still nearly 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. We see plenty of scope for strong catch-up growth as borders are fully reopened and activity normalizes. Supply bottlenecks and labor shortages have triggered a sharp rise in underlying inflation and created concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) may start rate hikes in the first half of 2022. We think the BoE is unlikely to be that aggressive. We expect inflation to decline in early 2022 as supply constraints ease, which should convince the BoE to delay rate hikes.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is the cheapest of the major developed equity markets in late 2021, and this should help it reflect higher returns than other markets over the next decade. Around 70% of UK corporate earnings come from offshore, so one near-term risk is that further strengthening of British sterling dampens earnings growth. The other risks are mostly around policy missteps, for example, early tightening by the Bank of England.\nJapan\nThe Japanese economy is expected to get a shot in the arm as rising vaccination rates improve mobility and reduce the risk of further lockdowns, and as political leadership changes result in more fiscal stimulus: the Japanese election is due to be held before Nov. 28. Japanese equities look slightly more expensive than other regions such as the UK and Europe. We maintain our view that the Bank of Japan will significantly lag other central banks in normalizing policy.\nChina\nWe expect Chinese economic growth to berobust over the next 12 months, supported by a post-lockdown jump in consumer spending and incremental fiscal and monetary easing. Despite a big improvement in vaccination rates,COVID-19 outbreaks remain a riskgiven the Chinese government’s zero-tolerance approach. The major consumer technology companies have seen significant drops in stock prices recently due to more aggressive regulation. Some uncertainty remains around thepath of future regulation, especially as it relates to technology companies, and as a result we expect investors will remain cautious on Chinese equities in the coming months. The property market, particularly property developers as recently highlighted by Evergrande’s debt crisis, remains a risk that we are monitoring closely.\nCanada\nCanada leads the G71countries in terms of the vaccination rollout, which should minimize the risk of large-scale lockdowns over winter. The delta variant has taken an economic toll, however, with industry consensus projections now predicting 5% GDP growth in 2021 versus estimates of more than 6% just three months ago. Even so, growth remains above-trend and the odds of additional fiscal expenditures to support the economy have increased. This means that weaker growth due to COVID-19 is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada's (BoC) tightening bias.\nTapering of asset purchasesshould be complete by the end of the first quarter of 2022. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has indicated that the reinvestment phase of the bonds held by the central bank will commence once quantitative easing has ended. This should generate an estimated C$1 billion in weekly bond purchases, down from the current pace of C$2 billion. The BoC will likely only consider shrinking its balance sheet after it has started lifting interest rates. The BoC projects that the output gap will close sometime over the second half of 2022, and that rate hikes will be considered after economic slack has disappeared. We believe that the timeline may be a tad aggressive, and a delay to 2023 for liftoff is more likely. This would better align the Canadian central bank with its American counterpart.\nAustralia/New Zealand\nThe Australian economy is set to return to life, with lockdowns likely to be eased in October and November. Consumer and business balance sheets continue to look healthy, which should facilitate a strong recovery. The reopening of the international border in 2022 will provide a further boost. Fiscal policy has supported the economy through the downturn, and there is potential for further stimulus in the lead-up to the federal election, which is due before the end of 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia has begun the process of tapering its bond-purchase program, but we expect that a rise in the cash rate is unlikely until at least the second half of 2023.\nNew Zealand’s most recent lockdown will drag on Q3 GDP, but similar to Australia, we expect a solid rebound as the economy reopens. The government aims to provide a vaccine to all adults by the end of 2021, after which borders will gradually reopen. This will provide a boost, particularly to tourism-exposed sectors. Despite having recently put off hiking interest rates due to the recent lockdown, we expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will start raising rates this year. Even though they have significantly underperformed global equities this year, New Zealand equities still screen as relatively expensive compared to other regions.\nAsset-class preferences\nOur cycle, value and sentiment investment decision-making process in late September 2021 has a moderately positive medium-term view on global equities. Value is expensive across most markets except for UK equities, which are near fair value. The cycle is risk-asset supportive for the medium-term. The major economies still have spare capacity and inflation pressures appear transitory, caused by COVID-19-related supply shortages. Rate hikes by the U.S. Fed seem unlikely before the second half of 2023. Sentiment, after reaching overbought levels earlier in the year, has returned to more neutral levels.\nCOMPOSITE CONTRARIAN INDICATOR: SENTIMENT SHIFTS TOWARD NEUTRAL\n\n\nWe prefernon-U.S. equitiesto U.S. equities. Stronger economic growth and steeper yield curves after the third-quarter slowdown should favor undervalued cyclical value stocks over expensive technology and growth stocks. Relative to the U.S., the rest of the world is overweight cyclical value stocks.\nEmerging markets equitieshave been relatively poor performers this year, but there are some encouraging signs. The vaccine rollout across EM has accelerated and policy easing in China should soon boost the economic growth outlook.China’s regulatory crackdownhas caused significant underperformance by Chinese technology companies, but this should be less of a headwind going forward now that it is priced in.\nHigh yieldandinvestment grade creditare expensive on a spread basis but have support from a positive cycle view that accommodates corporate profit growth and keeps default rates low. U.S. dollar-denominatedemerging markets debtis close to fair value in spread terms and will gain support on U.S. dollar weakness.\nGovernment bondsare expensive, and yields should come under upward pressure as output gaps close and central banks look to taper back asset purchases. We expect the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to rise toward 1.75% in coming months.\nReal assets: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have significantly outperformed Global Listed Infrastructure (GLI) so far this year, to the extent that REITS are now expensive relative to GLI. Both should benefit from the pandemic recovery, but GLI has some catch-up potential. GLI should benefit from the global re-opening boosting domestic and international travel.Commoditieshave been the best-performing asset class this year amid strong demand and supply bottlenecks. The gains have been led by industrial metals and energy. The pace of increase should ease as supply issues are resolved, butcommodities should retain supportfrom above-trend global demand.\nTheU.S. dollarhas been supported this year by expectations for early Fed tightening and U.S. economic growth leadership. It should weaken as global growth leadership rotates away from the U.S. and toward Europe and other developed economies. The dollar typically gains during global downturns and declines in the recovery phase. The main beneficiary is likely to be theeuro, which is still undervalued. We also believeBritish sterlingand the economically sensitivecommodity currencies—theAustralian dollar, theNew Zealand dollarand theCanadian dollar—can make further gains, although these currencies are not undervalued from a longer-term perspective.\n\nASSET PERFORMANCE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2021\n\n1The Group of Seven is an inter-governmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.\nImportant Information\nThe views in this Global Market Outlook report are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of September 27, 2021. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.\nPlease remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As with any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns.\nKeep in mind that, like all investing, multi-asset investing does not assure a profit or protect against loss.\nNo model or group of models can offer a precise estimate of future returns available from capital markets. We remain cautious that rational analytical techniques cannot predict extremes in financial behavior, such as periods of financial euphoria or investor panic. Our models rest on the assumptions of normal and rational financial behavior. Forecasting models are inherently uncertain, subject to change at any time based on a variety of factors and can be inaccurate. Russell believes that the utility of this information is highest in evaluating the relative relationships of various components of a globally diversified portfolio. As such, the models may offer insights into the prudence of over or under weighting those components from time to time or under periods of extreme dislocation. The models are explicitly not intended as market timing signals.\nForecasting represents predictions of market prices and/or volume patterns utilizing varying analytical data. It is not representative of a projection of the stock market, or of any specific investment.\nInvestment in global, international or emerging markets may be significantly affected by political or economic conditions and regulatory requirements in a particular country. Investments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation. Such securities may be less liquid and more volatile. Investments in emerging or developing markets involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature, and political systems with less stability than in more developed countries.\nCurrency investing involves risks including fluctuations in currency values, whether the home currency or the foreign currency. They can either enhance or reduce the returns associated with foreign investments.\nInvestments in non-U.S. markets can involve risks of currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, different accounting standards and foreign taxation.\nBond investors should carefully consider risks such as interest rate, credit, default and duration risks. Greater risk, such as increased volatility, limited liquidity, prepayment, non-payment and increased default risk, is inherent in portfolios that invest in high yield (“junk”) bonds or mortgage-backed securities, especially mortgage-backed securities with exposure to sub-prime mortgages. Generally, when interest rates rise, prices of fixed income securities fall. Interest rates in the United States are at, or near, historic lows, which may increase a Fund’s exposure to risks associated with rising rates. Investment in non-U.S. and emerging market securities is subject to the risk of currency fluctuations and to economic and political risks associated with such foreign countries.\nPerformance quoted represents past performance and should not be viewed as a guarantee of future results.\nThe FTSE 100 Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of UK-listed blue chip companies.\nThe S&P 500® Index, or the Standard & Poor’s 500, is a stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ.\nThe MSCI EMU Index (European Economic and Monetary Union) captures large and mid cap representation across the 10 developed markets countries in the EMU. With 246 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the EMU.\nIndexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.\nCopyright © Russell Investments 2021. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred, or distributed in any form without prior written permission from Russell Investments. It is delivered on an “as is” basis without warranty.\nFrank Russell Company is the owner of the Russell trademarks contained in this material and all trademark rights related to the Russell trademarks, which the members of the Russell Investments group of companies are permitted to use under license from Frank Russell Company. The members of the Russell Investments group of companies are not affiliated in any manner with Frank Russell Company or any entity operating under the “FTSE RUSSELL” brand.\nProducts and services described on this website are intended forUnited States residents only. Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained on this website should not be acted upon without obtaining specific legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Persons outside the United States may find more information about products and services available within their jurisdictions by going to Russell Investments' Worldwide site.\nRussell Investments is committed to ensuring digital accessibility for people with disabilities. We are continually improving the user experience for everyone, and applying the relevant accessibility standards.\nRussell Investments' ownership is composed of a majority stake held by funds managed by TA Associates, with a significant minority stake held by funds managed by Reverence Capital Partners. Russell Investments' employees and Hamilton Lane Advisors, LLC also hold minority, non-controlling, ownership stakes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876253871,"gmtCreate":1637323414161,"gmtModify":1637323414250,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876253871","repostId":"1153113708","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608934375,"gmtCreate":1638592750598,"gmtModify":1638592750598,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608934375","repostId":"1192973257","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858961194,"gmtCreate":1634964316797,"gmtModify":1634964316902,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858961194","repostId":"1168180190","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633446129,"gmtCreate":1644300185869,"gmtModify":1644300186018,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633446129","repostId":"633260016","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633260016,"gmtCreate":1644133471280,"gmtModify":1644157515074,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"期权复盘:猴市忌卖Put,用备兑做好头寸保护!","htmlText":"虎友们新年好,虎年大吉,给大家拜年啦!😬 这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","listText":"虎友们新年好,虎年大吉,给大家拜年啦!😬 这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","text":"虎友们新年好,虎年大吉,给大家拜年啦!😬 这一周大盘的波动比春晚还精彩,亚马逊、谷歌这种万亿巨头集体暴涨暴跌我也是没见过,说明市场争议太大了,这种市场多空都有钱赚,但是小散很容易被埋。 万幸,在大财报的拯救下,三大指数周线级别收了两根阳线,但还并未收复失地,也不应该觉得后市高枕无忧。目前我持有苹果、特斯拉、行权接盘了暴雪,由于特斯拉的波动也导致我们这两周账户波动剧烈,跟去年三月有点像。 我个人认为,几家对指数举足轻重的万亿企业基本面没有大问题,美股不会发生系统性崩盘。市场本轮暴跌的诱因是美联储货币政策“意外”转鹰,预计首次加息将发生在3月,紧接着年中将缩表。美债收益率接近2%,直接对风险资产造成负向影响。不可否认,宏观利率影响会阶段性造成美股混乱,但我认为美股长期决定因素是是企业基本面和估值水平。本轮回调后,标普500指数的12月动态估值已经回归到20倍左右,属于基本合理偏高一点的水平,随着企业业绩落地,盈利贡献会再次驱动估值,并非放水带来的虚高。 短期而言,越是临近3月FOMC议息会议,市场可能还是会非常波动,我就标普指数做了复盘和推演,标普早前跌破年线,最低到4222,在这个位置盘整了5天,我会认为这个支撑还是很牢靠的,5天的多空确认的点位应该不至于很快破了。然后反弹强势收回年线,周五又跌到年线位置才开启一波反弹。我当然是希望下周继续向上,或者就在年线附近震荡。但是加息前,单边多头或者小幅波动不太现实,宽幅震荡更可能。前期跌了这么多,会不会去4200的附近走另一条腿?还挺有可能的,但市场是走出来的,我不是技术专家,不要听我的。比较有意思的是,罗素2000这这个小盘股指数早前跌破了牛熊线,但从图上看根本没有看到支撑,最近大家一定要多观察罗素2000,因为先跌的往往都是它的成分股,悲观的说,他要继续到175一线才能找到一个支撑。虽然是虎年,市场确是猴市,上蹿下跳的,我1月底","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24e9aefd68e3dc0c65797a36f195f3d","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3527ad2dca49d0f77f05fdbd7bea414","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22f11d54a7115579d36dc68b07cd79d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633260016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633446904,"gmtCreate":1644300099260,"gmtModify":1644300099371,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron71</a>: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4087786607644270\">@Ron71</a>: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"//@Ron71: Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633446904","repostId":"633632817","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633632817,"gmtCreate":1643985314614,"gmtModify":1644019469417,"author":{"id":"20703384576125","authorId":"20703384576125","name":"Seven8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c5325d49ab0fd75150e915a280d214","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"大型科技股财报总览,FAAMG+TSLA业绩告诉我们什么?","htmlText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","listText":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","text":"大型科技股财报全部交代了,奈飞彻底跌出了“大型”,市值不足2000亿美元,美股市值前50都排不进了。 FAAMG+TSLA唯一爆雷的是改名META的FB,改名需谨慎。特斯拉虽然财报后大跌10%,但客观说财报很好很好。亚马逊虽然财报后暴涨18%,但客观说,财报太一般。下面我按照市值顺序总结一下6大科技股财报。 AAPL 大苹果就是美股定海神针,所有数字统统超过预期,营收利润均创历史新高。截至12月31日的季度营收1239.5亿美元,同比增长11%,创有史以来最高的单季收入,主要是来自核心产品iPhone的收入716亿美元,同比增9%,力克供应链短缺。iPhone13几乎是苹果最成功的产品之一,据报道,截止2021年底iPhone13/Pro销量超过了4000万部,创历史记录,同时,iPhone13的成功使得苹果在大中华地区的销售额同比增长21%。 毛利率水平高达43.8%,可见厨子的供应链管理和运营效率管理能力。净利润346.3亿美元,同比增长20%,每股收益(EPS)2.1美元,同比增长25%,利润增速超过了收入的增速,这主要得益于服务部门季度创收195亿美元,同比增长24%,强劲的表现给公司贡献了高于预期的毛利率43.8%。 本季度苹果想股东返还近270亿美元,宣布现金派息0.22美元/每股。过去终归是过去,支撑苹果跳涨的还是对于2022年的展望,厨子认为供应链问题会在2022年得到缓解,iPad受到芯片供应影响业绩下滑在预期中,但压力已经释放,2022年第二季度后将会得到缓解,毛利率水平会维持在42.5%-43.5%之间,几乎是历史最好的状态。 MSFT 巨头中最稳的公司,一个双beat的财报却带来超过10%的振幅,盘后先跌6%,到开盘一路涨了5%。如果说盘后先跌是因为Azure增速46%不及市场乐观预期的50%,我是不认可的,到这个体量的公司核心业务增速还有46%还有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633632817","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639794614,"gmtCreate":1643430335512,"gmtModify":1643430335578,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Happy Chinese New Year ","listText":"Happy Chinese New Year ","text":"Happy Chinese New Year","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639794614","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604845241,"gmtCreate":1639376411521,"gmtModify":1639376411624,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604845241","repostId":"1165968219","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608934244,"gmtCreate":1638592857502,"gmtModify":1638592857502,"author":{"id":"4087786607644270","authorId":"4087786607644270","name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608934244","repostId":"1115344844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115344844","pubTimestamp":1638544099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115344844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115344844","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that b","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Upstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.</li>\n <li>Zscaler continues to impress with recent results showing accelerated growth again. The shares went up immediately after the report but reversed down in the general wash out.</li>\n <li>Monday.com is a fairly new company and it also got hit by the market. Its high growth profile, rapidly improving profitability, and reasonable valuation makes it an interesting stock pick.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aac50f1e4e4115b0d38a5ec6c15c267\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1139\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>I started writing this article one week ago with the goal to review Upstart's recent quarterly results. Since in my last article, I argued that Upstart (UPST) might still be an attractive buying opportunity at $390 a share, I wanted to check on the company (currently trading around $180 –<i>yikes!</i>).</p>\n<p>However, the recent market sell-off, especially in high-growth names, made me reconsider the direction of the article. I think it is much more interesting right now to write about some high-growth names in my portfolio that I am considering adding during this little downturn.</p>\n<p>A little caveat upfront, though. I am really bad at short-term calls (as evidenced by my recent Upstart article). I have no idea what the Omicron variant will do to our economy, what the Fed's monetary policy will be in the future and how far this sell-off will go eventually. By the time this article is published, the sell-off might already have reversed. Or it might have gotten much worse. I simply don't know.</p>\n<p>What I do know is that there are companies in the public markets with exceptional business fundamentals that <b>will do very well regardless of the macro environment</b>. These are businesses with high growth rates, high margins, and long runways of growth. They also have high valuation multiples which lead to increased risk and high volatility. Taking advantage of that volatility is a great way to increase your returns. Here are some stocks that I consider buying right now:</p>\n<p><b>Upstart</b></p>\n<p>Let's start with the one I originally wanted to write about: To summarize shortly, I think that if you liked Upstart at $390, you should like it much more at $180. The earnings release for Q3 2021 was not as bad as the market's reaction might suggest. Yes, expectations were lofty based on an exceptional Q2 report, and yes, these expectations were not entirely met in Q3. But that does not mean that the fundamental picture has deteriorated. What the wild price swings of the past prove, and I have written about in the past, is that this young company is difficult to value. Growth is high, but also hard to predict. And while the disruption of the FICO score through AI technology is enticing and seems inevitable, Upstart's role in that story is not set in stone.</p>\n<p>Let's look at some numbers:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b085c5134a9e376f177da8f5fa2674e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"309\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b826680751b139c569c90d0d3be483cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"163\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>As you can see, revenue growth is still explosive, and with a normal beat should accelerate again into Q4 on a sequential basis. And while most key performance indicators (loans transacted, conversion rate, percentage of automated loans) together with margins all decelerated or went down slightly, I don't think that this means the fundamentals have changed with this company. There were many details mentioned in the earnings call that I won't discuss in this article format. But the key takeaway for me was that management seemed very upbeat about the future of the company.</p>\n<p>I think there are two key mistakes that investors should avoid here:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Let the disappointment of a \"not-so-blowout\" quarter and a devastating price action make you blind to this investment opportunity. This was still a very good quarter and now that the shares have fallen off a cliff the stock is much more attractive.</li>\n <li>Do not look at Upstart through the lens of SaaS businesses. As I wrote in May:<i>Upstart might be a high-promising cloud software company but it does not have a SaaS business model. There is</i> <i><b>no recurring revenue</b></i> <i>to fall back on in tough times, no sticky subscription customers, no backlog, no land and expand. Every quarter Upstart has to sell new loans, and revenue basically starts from zero.</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>Upstart's financials are lumpier and less reliable and as a result, the company deserves much more investor attention and a lower valuation multiple than high growth companies with recurring revenues. However, if growth stays very high, it could more than make up for that fact. Currently, the company is trading at a 17.76 forward EV/S, which I think is a relative bargain for a company with this growth and margin profile.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15592919228dec8ee2403898d69ef228\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Zscaler</b></p>\n<p>Sometimes the market gives you a gift that you should not refuse. This is what happened with Zscaler (ZS) yesterday. The stock initially was up in the postmarket after the company reported another blow-out quarter on Tuesday. But on Wednesday it all didn't matter anymore and thanks to the little correction, sector rotation, or whatever you want to call it, the stock actually went <b>down by more than 8%</b>. This is really a time when you want to buy: You just got confirmation that your company is doing incredibly well with growth accelerating and the stock sells off for macro concerns. The stock is definitely not cheap at a forward EV/S of 43.51 and, of course, this \"pull-back\" is laughable (<i>\"oh my god, the stock is back to where it was...one month ago\"</i>).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79ff3fce3101896f17b65ced143c037\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>But I like to own companies that are doing exceptional things and I don't mind paying up for them, especially in a turbulent market.</p>\n<p>How exceptional is Zscaler? Just look at those revenue growth numbers:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3def4410c8c903a03041a2cd51b36979\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author.</span></p>\n<p>I thought in May that growth acceleration might end soon, but it has continued to accelerate in Q1 2022. If the company beats its guidance in Q2 in a similar fashion to the past (usually more than 5%), it should accelerate year-on-year growth again in Q2 (or at least maintain the current 60%+ growth rate). On top of that, this quarter saw <b>RPO growing 98%, a dollar-based net retention rate of 125%, and FCF margins of 36%</b>. In other words, this business is firing on all cylinders. If you don't know what Zscaler does,read my article from December 2018 – the stock is up 710% since then, and I think it can go even higher.</p>\n<p><b>Monday.com</b></p>\n<p>Monday.com (MNDY) is a company that is a relatively new stock in the public markets (it IPOed in June this year) and a completely new stock in my portfolio (I just bought my first position). In a nutshell, the reason why I bought Monday.com is their hyper-growth and rapidly improving profitability. Just look at these two slides from the most recent earnings call presentation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5b07658237c02685eb3d049a537ba61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Earnings call presentation Q3 2021.</span></p>\n<p>Revenue was <b>up 95%</b>(up from 94% in the last quarter). This is quite astounding growth which indicates that this company is winning in the market (but also consider that the company is at a small annual revenue run rate, which makes it a bit easier). The number of enterprise customerswith more than $50K ARRwas <b>up 231%</b>(at 613, up from 185 a year ago). Monday was also <b>cash flow positive</b> for the first time this quarter.</p>\n<p>On top of that, it is also cheap relative to other cloud stocks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e6afbf54bdde4ad31dd3aaa06d0073\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Clouded Judgement 11.26.21.</span></p>\n<p>The company currently has a TTM EV/S of 57, and a 2022 EV/S of 38.7, based on analysts' expectation of 47% growth in 2022. That seems rich but not terribly so relative to other cloud names. The growth expectation of 47% in 2022, however, seems quite low if you consider the current growth of 95% year-on-year and 17% sequentially, plus the current momentum in larger customers. Actually, anything below 70% growth in FY 2022 would come as a surprise to me, and then we are looking at a maximum forward EV/S of 33.</p>\n<p>The big question going forward – in terms of if Monday.com will be a good long-term investment – is to which extent Monday.com can maintain its high growth rate beyond FY 2022. Here I do have some doubts still. The company is operating in a very dynamic and competitive field and I am not yet sure where Monday differentiates itself meaningfully from companies like Asana (ASAN) or Atlassian (TEAM). Still, the market for cloud-based work management solutions is big and there can be many winners in the space. For the moment I'm happy to follow the numbers (which look fantastic) and hope that the relatively cheap valuation will result in substantial alpha and is not an indication of a lower quality company.</p>\n<p><b>Closing Thoughts And Honorary Mentions</b></p>\n<p>On days like these, there are many companies worth considering. For example, I haven't mentioned Datadog (DDOG) which reported another fantastic quarter at the beginning of November. Like Zscaler, this is also a company with accelerating growth that you can buy at a lower price than it was before it reported its blowout results.</p>\n<p>Remember that the stocks mentioned, even though they may look attractive from a relative perspective, are still very expensive in absolute terms and from a historical perspective. However, sustainable growth is a beautiful form of downside protection for investors and the best antidote to \"overvaluation\" that I know. If I learned one thing in the last four years investing in high-growth SaaS/cloud stocks, it is to stay invested in the companies that sustain (or preferably accelerate) their top-line growth and get out of the stocks that see slowdowns. That sounds terribly simplistic and of course, many other factors play a role in a stock's long-term gains, but revenue growth and its endurance have been the predominant factors in the past.</p>\n<p>This pull-back is far from the worst I have seen in recent years. But it is still painful – and when it starts to hurt, it is usually a good time to buy some quality companies.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High Growth Stocks To Buy In The Pullback\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-03 23:08 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.\nZscaler continues to impress ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","ZS":"Zscaler Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473014-3-high-growth-stocks-to-buy-in-the-pullback","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115344844","content_text":"Summary\n\nUpstart has fallen more than 50% from its highs. But its last earnings report wasn't that bad. The story is still intact and shares have derisked considerably.\nZscaler continues to impress with recent results showing accelerated growth again. The shares went up immediately after the report but reversed down in the general wash out.\nMonday.com is a fairly new company and it also got hit by the market. Its high growth profile, rapidly improving profitability, and reasonable valuation makes it an interesting stock pick.\n\nGaleanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images\nI started writing this article one week ago with the goal to review Upstart's recent quarterly results. Since in my last article, I argued that Upstart (UPST) might still be an attractive buying opportunity at $390 a share, I wanted to check on the company (currently trading around $180 –yikes!).\nHowever, the recent market sell-off, especially in high-growth names, made me reconsider the direction of the article. I think it is much more interesting right now to write about some high-growth names in my portfolio that I am considering adding during this little downturn.\nA little caveat upfront, though. I am really bad at short-term calls (as evidenced by my recent Upstart article). I have no idea what the Omicron variant will do to our economy, what the Fed's monetary policy will be in the future and how far this sell-off will go eventually. By the time this article is published, the sell-off might already have reversed. Or it might have gotten much worse. I simply don't know.\nWhat I do know is that there are companies in the public markets with exceptional business fundamentals that will do very well regardless of the macro environment. These are businesses with high growth rates, high margins, and long runways of growth. They also have high valuation multiples which lead to increased risk and high volatility. Taking advantage of that volatility is a great way to increase your returns. Here are some stocks that I consider buying right now:\nUpstart\nLet's start with the one I originally wanted to write about: To summarize shortly, I think that if you liked Upstart at $390, you should like it much more at $180. The earnings release for Q3 2021 was not as bad as the market's reaction might suggest. Yes, expectations were lofty based on an exceptional Q2 report, and yes, these expectations were not entirely met in Q3. But that does not mean that the fundamental picture has deteriorated. What the wild price swings of the past prove, and I have written about in the past, is that this young company is difficult to value. Growth is high, but also hard to predict. And while the disruption of the FICO score through AI technology is enticing and seems inevitable, Upstart's role in that story is not set in stone.\nLet's look at some numbers:\n\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, revenue growth is still explosive, and with a normal beat should accelerate again into Q4 on a sequential basis. And while most key performance indicators (loans transacted, conversion rate, percentage of automated loans) together with margins all decelerated or went down slightly, I don't think that this means the fundamentals have changed with this company. There were many details mentioned in the earnings call that I won't discuss in this article format. But the key takeaway for me was that management seemed very upbeat about the future of the company.\nI think there are two key mistakes that investors should avoid here:\n\nLet the disappointment of a \"not-so-blowout\" quarter and a devastating price action make you blind to this investment opportunity. This was still a very good quarter and now that the shares have fallen off a cliff the stock is much more attractive.\nDo not look at Upstart through the lens of SaaS businesses. As I wrote in May:Upstart might be a high-promising cloud software company but it does not have a SaaS business model. There is no recurring revenue to fall back on in tough times, no sticky subscription customers, no backlog, no land and expand. Every quarter Upstart has to sell new loans, and revenue basically starts from zero.\n\nUpstart's financials are lumpier and less reliable and as a result, the company deserves much more investor attention and a lower valuation multiple than high growth companies with recurring revenues. However, if growth stays very high, it could more than make up for that fact. Currently, the company is trading at a 17.76 forward EV/S, which I think is a relative bargain for a company with this growth and margin profile.\nData by YCharts\nZscaler\nSometimes the market gives you a gift that you should not refuse. This is what happened with Zscaler (ZS) yesterday. The stock initially was up in the postmarket after the company reported another blow-out quarter on Tuesday. But on Wednesday it all didn't matter anymore and thanks to the little correction, sector rotation, or whatever you want to call it, the stock actually went down by more than 8%. This is really a time when you want to buy: You just got confirmation that your company is doing incredibly well with growth accelerating and the stock sells off for macro concerns. The stock is definitely not cheap at a forward EV/S of 43.51 and, of course, this \"pull-back\" is laughable (\"oh my god, the stock is back to where it was...one month ago\").\nData by YCharts\nBut I like to own companies that are doing exceptional things and I don't mind paying up for them, especially in a turbulent market.\nHow exceptional is Zscaler? Just look at those revenue growth numbers:\nSource: Author.\nI thought in May that growth acceleration might end soon, but it has continued to accelerate in Q1 2022. If the company beats its guidance in Q2 in a similar fashion to the past (usually more than 5%), it should accelerate year-on-year growth again in Q2 (or at least maintain the current 60%+ growth rate). On top of that, this quarter saw RPO growing 98%, a dollar-based net retention rate of 125%, and FCF margins of 36%. In other words, this business is firing on all cylinders. If you don't know what Zscaler does,read my article from December 2018 – the stock is up 710% since then, and I think it can go even higher.\nMonday.com\nMonday.com (MNDY) is a company that is a relatively new stock in the public markets (it IPOed in June this year) and a completely new stock in my portfolio (I just bought my first position). In a nutshell, the reason why I bought Monday.com is their hyper-growth and rapidly improving profitability. Just look at these two slides from the most recent earnings call presentation:\nSource: Earnings call presentation Q3 2021.\nRevenue was up 95%(up from 94% in the last quarter). This is quite astounding growth which indicates that this company is winning in the market (but also consider that the company is at a small annual revenue run rate, which makes it a bit easier). The number of enterprise customerswith more than $50K ARRwas up 231%(at 613, up from 185 a year ago). Monday was also cash flow positive for the first time this quarter.\nOn top of that, it is also cheap relative to other cloud stocks:\nSource: Clouded Judgement 11.26.21.\nThe company currently has a TTM EV/S of 57, and a 2022 EV/S of 38.7, based on analysts' expectation of 47% growth in 2022. That seems rich but not terribly so relative to other cloud names. The growth expectation of 47% in 2022, however, seems quite low if you consider the current growth of 95% year-on-year and 17% sequentially, plus the current momentum in larger customers. Actually, anything below 70% growth in FY 2022 would come as a surprise to me, and then we are looking at a maximum forward EV/S of 33.\nThe big question going forward – in terms of if Monday.com will be a good long-term investment – is to which extent Monday.com can maintain its high growth rate beyond FY 2022. Here I do have some doubts still. The company is operating in a very dynamic and competitive field and I am not yet sure where Monday differentiates itself meaningfully from companies like Asana (ASAN) or Atlassian (TEAM). Still, the market for cloud-based work management solutions is big and there can be many winners in the space. For the moment I'm happy to follow the numbers (which look fantastic) and hope that the relatively cheap valuation will result in substantial alpha and is not an indication of a lower quality company.\nClosing Thoughts And Honorary Mentions\nOn days like these, there are many companies worth considering. For example, I haven't mentioned Datadog (DDOG) which reported another fantastic quarter at the beginning of November. Like Zscaler, this is also a company with accelerating growth that you can buy at a lower price than it was before it reported its blowout results.\nRemember that the stocks mentioned, even though they may look attractive from a relative perspective, are still very expensive in absolute terms and from a historical perspective. However, sustainable growth is a beautiful form of downside protection for investors and the best antidote to \"overvaluation\" that I know. If I learned one thing in the last four years investing in high-growth SaaS/cloud stocks, it is to stay invested in the companies that sustain (or preferably accelerate) their top-line growth and get out of the stocks that see slowdowns. That sounds terribly simplistic and of course, many other factors play a role in a stock's long-term gains, but revenue growth and its endurance have been the predominant factors in the past.\nThis pull-back is far from the worst I have seen in recent years. But it is still painful – and when it starts to hurt, it is usually a good time to buy some quality companies.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}