a中侠的个人主页 - 老虎社区

a中侠

a中侠

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IP属地：山西

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2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@期权小班长:来了，600万做空ARKK

2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@期权小班长:市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！

2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎周报:阿里巴巴23Q3财报分析：好过最慌时，恢复行径中

2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@期权小班长:最差预期：回到12月？

2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@期权小班长:市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！

2023-02-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@价值投资为王:阿里Q3：利润暴增都是假象！

2021-06-26

叮咚买菜看多你买这么看

2021-06-17

芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货

2021-06-16

全球芯片短缺，看好你中芯国际

高盛：重申中芯国际(0981.HK)“买入”评级目标价33.3港元

2021-06-10

好心态最重要

2021-06-04

618来了，看好你京东物流

2021-06-01

没有永远的黑白🐴只有永远的收割机

2021-05-31

时代天使大家都有啥想法

2021-05-30

卫龙辣条吃货的天堂

2021-05-29

周末也可以预约挂单子，太方便了

2021-05-26

回复 @WWQ:认识了很高兴//@WWQ:……

@小虎AV:5月24日，韩国就业信息网站“打工天堂”面向1750名大学生问卷调查公布结果，每4名大学生就有1名投资加密货币，大四学生最多，大部分在今年开始投资，平均投资141万韩元，约合人民币8000元。近三分之二的大学生用打工赚的钱投资。[眼眼]$比特币基金(GBTC)$

2021-05-26

人民币升值空间大，值得拥有

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-26

蔚来汽车值得拥有，发展空间大

2021-05-26

人民币升值空间大

2021-05-25

茅台涨价了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 标准熊市看跌价差策略买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> 卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell&nbsp;put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","listText":"我以为PCE只是开胃小菜，没想到是主菜。盘前公布美国1月核心PCE大超预期，年率4.7%，高于预期4.3%，前值4.4%。核心PCE月率0.6%，高于预期0.4%，前值0.3%。公布后纳斯达克期货跌1.88%。问题是今天盘中还有三位美联储鹰派官员讲话：克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德和美联储理事沃勒。其中梅斯特就是加息50基点的支持者，上周四就是她发言后市场回调了。今晚即使有利空消息落地的拐弯，也得等他们仨说完话以后，谁知道他们会不会说支持下次加息50基点这种言论？但瞅美债收益率这个涨幅，感觉今晚很难再V起来。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 标准熊市看跌价差策略买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> 卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell&nbsp;put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","text":"我以为PCE只是开胃小菜，没想到是主菜。盘前公布美国1月核心PCE大超预期，年率4.7%，高于预期4.3%，前值4.4%。核心PCE月率0.6%，高于预期0.4%，前值0.3%。公布后纳斯达克期货跌1.88%。问题是今天盘中还有三位美联储鹰派官员讲话：克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德和美联储理事沃勒。其中梅斯特就是加息50基点的支持者，上周四就是她发言后市场回调了。今晚即使有利空消息落地的拐弯，也得等他们仨说完话以后，谁知道他们会不会说支持下次加息50基点这种言论？但瞅美债收益率这个涨幅，感觉今晚很难再V起来。$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 标准熊市看跌价差策略买$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ $ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$ 卖$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ $ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$ 总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c20691321fab0846486e8b1e42ea61ab","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624841025","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222536,"gmtCreate":1677507484525,"gmtModify":1677507485899,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222536","repostId":"624384760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624384760,"gmtCreate":1677078916250,"gmtModify":1677078943143,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！","htmlText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","listText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料$拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222274,"gmtCreate":1677507456598,"gmtModify":1677507458058,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222274","repostId":"624880702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624880702,"gmtCreate":1677228583206,"gmtModify":1677228650386,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴23Q3财报分析：好过最慌时，恢复行径中","htmlText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","listText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","text":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1783996c16bc6df15a9fac40d74618cc","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b27194f6797a449c581a56342c0dc5","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112d157cfa8c5300407f4df7a695fa01","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624880702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222836,"gmtCreate":1677507430825,"gmtModify":1677507432178,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222836","repostId":"624912478","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624912478,"gmtCreate":1676997328694,"gmtModify":1676997349449,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"最差预期：回到12月？","htmlText":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell&nbsp;call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>","listText":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell&nbsp;call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>","text":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ $JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ 卖$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624912478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222141,"gmtCreate":1677507417183,"gmtModify":1677507418525,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222141","repostId":"624384760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624384760,"gmtCreate":1677078916250,"gmtModify":1677078943143,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！","htmlText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","listText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料$拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222379,"gmtCreate":1677507406391,"gmtModify":1677507407992,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222379","repostId":"624186379","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624186379,"gmtCreate":1677157415991,"gmtModify":1677158041045,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里Q3：利润暴增都是假象！","htmlText":"刚刚，电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报（截止22年12月31日的季度）。 其中，营收2477.56亿人民币，超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿，同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿，同比增长138%。 财报公布之后，阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%： &nbsp; 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似，皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨，然而令人惊讶的是，百度在美股正式开盘之后，股价高开低走，最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗？ 具体来看，阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿，虽然超出市场的预期，但幅度只有0.77%，撑不起股价大涨7%的场面： &nbsp; 细分来看，中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿，同比下滑1%；国际商业营收194.65亿，同比增长18%；本地生活服务营收131.64亿，同比增长6%；菜鸟营收165.53，同比增长27%；云业务营收201.79亿，同比增长3%；数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿，同比下滑6%；创新业务及其他营收8.23亿，同比下滑20%： &nbsp; 将中国商业继续细分，其中客户管理收入同比下降9%，主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续，以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响，引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV（剔除未支付订单）同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿，同比增长10%，主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中，盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长，主要是配送和运营效率的提升，阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 显然，阿里健康的增长吃到了疫情红利，可持续性值得商榷。而阿里巴巴的核心业务淘宝和天猫GMV录得5%左右的下降，疫情影响是一过性，但竞争加剧值得投资者重视，尤其是京东宣布将在3月初上线百亿补贴，虽然矛头直","listText":"刚刚，电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报（截止22年12月31日的季度）。 其中，营收2477.56亿人民币，超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿，同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿，同比增长138%。 财报公布之后，阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%： &nbsp; 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似，皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨，然而令人惊讶的是，百度在美股正式开盘之后，股价高开低走，最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗？ 具体来看，阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿，虽然超出市场的预期，但幅度只有0.77%，撑不起股价大涨7%的场面： &nbsp; 细分来看，中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿，同比下滑1%；国际商业营收194.65亿，同比增长18%；本地生活服务营收131.64亿，同比增长6%；菜鸟营收165.53，同比增长27%；云业务营收201.79亿，同比增长3%；数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿，同比下滑6%；创新业务及其他营收8.23亿，同比下滑20%： &nbsp; 将中国商业继续细分，其中客户管理收入同比下降9%，主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续，以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响，引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV（剔除未支付订单）同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿，同比增长10%，主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中，盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长，主要是配送和运营效率的提升，阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 显然，阿里健康的增长吃到了疫情红利，可持续性值得商榷。而阿里巴巴的核心业务淘宝和天猫GMV录得5%左右的下降，疫情影响是一过性，但竞争加剧值得投资者重视，尤其是京东宣布将在3月初上线百亿补贴，虽然矛头直","text":"刚刚，电商巨头阿里巴巴发布了23财年三季报（截止22年12月31日的季度）。 其中，营收2477.56亿人民币，超出彭博分析师一致预期的2458.75亿，同比增长2.1%。净利润为457.46亿，同比增长138%。 财报公布之后，阿里巴巴美股盘前股价一度大涨7%： 这一幕和昨日披露财报的百度十分相似，皆是营收小幅超预期、净利润大超预期、盘前股价大涨，然而令人惊讶的是，百度在美股正式开盘之后，股价高开低走，最终逆势下跌2.6%。 阿里巴巴会步百度后尘吗？ 具体来看，阿里巴巴三季度营收2477.56亿，虽然超出市场的预期，但幅度只有0.77%，撑不起股价大涨7%的场面： 细分来看，中国商业三季度营收1699.86亿，同比下滑1%；国际商业营收194.65亿，同比增长18%；本地生活服务营收131.64亿，同比增长6%；菜鸟营收165.53，同比增长27%；云业务营收201.79亿，同比增长3%；数字媒体及娱乐营收75.86亿，同比下滑6%；创新业务及其他营收8.23亿，同比下滑20%： 将中国商业继续细分，其中客户管理收入同比下降9%，主要由于消费需求减少、竞争持续，以及因内地新冠肺炎疫情病例增加导致供应链和物流受到影响，引致淘宝和天猫的线上实物商品GMV（剔除未支付订单）同比录得中单位数下降。 中国零售商业的直营及其他收入为人民币744.21亿，同比增长10%，主要是由于盒马和阿里健康的直营业务的收入增长所贡献。其中，盒马录得双位数的同店销售增长，主要是配送和运营效率的提升，阿里健康增长迅速则主要是因为新冠疫情带来医疗和保健需求大增。 显然，阿里健康的增长吃到了疫情红利，可持续性值得商榷。而阿里巴巴的核心业务淘宝和天猫GMV录得5%左右的下降，疫情影响是一过性，但竞争加剧值得投资者重视，尤其是京东宣布将在3月初上线百亿补贴，虽然矛头直","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6711dde68a60ade7e345ddf3b001fe","width":"831","height":"832"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eefe641743fe1b37f013f63c7fa0472","width":"1194","height":"466"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfed0b38984612ed93b63164df3be3d1","width":"1012","height":"500"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624186379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125256405,"gmtCreate":1624676777607,"gmtModify":1624676777607,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","listText":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","text":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125256405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161387230,"gmtCreate":1623905427620,"gmtModify":1623905427620,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","listText":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","text":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161387230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169769426,"gmtCreate":1623851221965,"gmtModify":1623851221965,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584006260901659","authorIdStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全球芯片短缺，看好你中芯国际","listText":"全球芯片短缺，看好你中芯国际","text":"全球芯片短缺，看好你中芯国际","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169769426","repostId":"2143276215","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2143276215","pubTimestamp":1623825131,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2143276215?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛：重申中芯国际(0981.HK)“买入”评级 目标价33.3港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143276215","media":"格隆汇","summary":"高盛发布研究报告，基于成熟节点的需求强劲、价格趋势良好，以及本地设计公司客户的需求不断增长，重申中芯国际(0981.HK)“买入”评级，目标价33.3港元。高盛表示，40纳米晶圆将成为公司2021-22年的主要增长动力，其2021及2022年收入同比增长32%及27%，主要由客户需求增长带动，当中包括CMOS图像传感器(CIS)、WiFi、蓝芽、微控制器(MCU)及无线射频(RF)。此外，该行预计在2021及2022年，40纳米晶圆业务占公司总收入比例为16%及18%，占整体纯利19%及21%。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>发布研究报告，基于成熟节点的需求强劲、价格趋势良好，以及本地设计公司客户的需求不断增长，重申<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMI\">中芯国际</a>(<span>0981.HK</span><span>)“买入”评级，目标价33.3港元。</span></p><p>高盛表示，40纳米晶圆将成为公司2021-22年的主要增长动力，其2021及2022年收入同比增长32%及27%，主要由客户需求增长带动，当中包括CMOS图像传感器(CIS)、WiFi、蓝芽、微控制器(MCU)及无线射频(RF)。此外，该行预计在2021及2022年，40纳米晶圆业务占公司总收入比例为16%及18%，占整体纯利19%及21%。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/7c7b4-48de11c3-b557-43ac-b612-3d2c4cea4e75.png\"/></p></body></html>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 14:32 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470429><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛发布研究报告，基于成熟节点的需求强劲、价格趋势良好，以及本地设计公司客户的需求不断增长，重申中芯国际(0981.HK)“买入”评级，目标价33.3港元。高盛表示，40纳米晶圆将成为公司2021-22年的主要增长动力，其2021及2022年收入同比增长32%及27%，主要由客户需求增长带动，当中包括CMOS图像传感器(CIS)、WiFi、蓝芽、微控制器(MCU)及无线射频(RF)。此外，该行预计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/470429\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a03a5ae5cfc1aad727ce9e6d2b27bb","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","SMI":"VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n升破6.39元！离岸人民币直线上涨，利好A股这些板块\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-26 13:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-05-26/doc-ikmxzfmm4757245.shtml><strong>中国证券报-中证网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场价涨，中间价跟涨；中间价涨，市场价再涨。人民币汇率升值已不可阻挡？26日，人民币汇率中间价大幅上调至6.4099，创下近3年新高；离岸人民币汇率直线飙升，升破6.39元；在岸人民币汇率时隔3年也重回6.4元上方。截至上午11:30，离岸汇率最高至6.3877元，在岸汇率最高至6.3943元。那么，这一轮人民币汇率升值是主动引导的吗？升值能抵抗通胀吗？能持续吗？对A股有啥影响？主动推升？在今日...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-05-26/doc-ikmxzfmm4757245.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b5925995e7b9f0e0f28724e9322d253","relate_stocks":{"CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2021-05-26/doc-ikmxzfmm4757245.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2138011838","content_text":"市场价涨，中间价跟涨；中间价涨，市场价再涨。人民币汇率升值已不可阻挡？26日，人民币汇率中间价大幅上调至6.4099，创下近3年新高；离岸人民币汇率直线飙升，升破6.39元；在岸人民币汇率时隔3年也重回6.4元上方。截至上午11:30，离岸汇率最高至6.3877元，在岸汇率最高至6.3943元。那么，这一轮人民币汇率升值是主动引导的吗？升值能抵抗通胀吗？能持续吗？对A股有啥影响？主动推升？在今日人民币汇率中间价调升之前，离岸和在岸人民币对美元市场汇率均已先行升至近3年的高位。25日，离岸人民币汇率盘中一度升值150余点，突破6.4元，最高至6.3944元；在岸人民币对美元即期汇率16:30收盘报6.4078元，升215点。不过在随后的交易中，在岸和离岸人民币汇率均有所回调，25日收盘，离岸汇率报6.4121元，在岸汇率23:30报6.4200元。值得注意的是，在人民币对美元汇率先升值再回调的过程中，美元指数非常合拍地上演先抑后扬的走势，清晰地揭示了短期人民币汇率走势背后的“美元因素”。中国银行研究院高级研究员王有鑫分析，25日离岸人民币汇率飙升主要受两方面因素驱动：一是美元指数午后一度快速下行至89.5附近，促使人民币被动升值；二是中国资本市场表现较好，股汇联动下跨境资金加快涌入，刺激人民币汇率走强。在这两方面因素中，中信建投宏观固收首席分析师黄文涛认为，美元走弱是主因，理由在于：近期人民币升值幅度远小于美元指数跌幅，同时人民币对多个非美主要货币呈现贬值态势。“人民币主动、单边升值的证据不足。”据统计，从4月初低点以来，离岸人民币汇率已升值超过1800点，幅度接近3%。然而，同期美元指数下跌了将近4%。升值能抵抗通胀吗？近期人民币汇率升值，正好伴随大宗商品价格连续上涨。市场有观点称，可通过人民币升值对冲国际大宗商品涨价带来的输入性通胀压力。国盛证券固收首席分析师杨业伟认为，输入性通胀是目前要应对的问题，而在宏观政策选择方面汇率比利率更有效。首先，当前通胀是输入性的，加息难抑制国际大宗商品价格，升值则能有效控制以人民币计价的大宗商品价格上涨压力。其次，当前外需强劲内需偏弱，加息会加剧内需压力，而外需强劲对升值承受力较强。再次，升值也是应对美国无节制发行货币的有效之举。杨业伟认为，面对当前的通胀压力，央行将更多以升值，而非加息或引导利率上行应对。市场上也存在不同的看法。东吴证券首席宏观分析师陶川指出，人民币汇率升值往往对应着美元贬值，而美元贬值会造成主要以美元计价的大宗商品价格进一步上涨，这一涨一跌的最终结果并不明确。陶川认为，当前并不是使用汇率工具的时间窗口。首先，今年要推动人民币更大幅度升值，可能需要靠加息才行，但当前加息的条件并不成熟。其次，汇率升值对于小型企业的冲击较大，与稳企业保就业的政策基调相悖。最后，当前价格传导的不畅会削弱下游中小企业吸收汇率升值冲击的能力。升值会持续吗？此轮人民币升值已持续近两个月，这一趋势会否延续？机构看法存在分歧。黄文涛认为，由于近期人民币汇率走势主要受美元走势影响，美元弱意味着人民币大概率仍将强势。中信证券研究所副所长明明称，结合我国强劲出口、美国实际利率走低以及美联储整体偏鸽态度等因素判断，人民币汇率仍具备升值空间。中金公司报告提示，美元指数的走弱是近期人民币兑美元汇率升值的重要推动因素。长远来看，美国经济复苏将推高实际利率，进而支撑美元。预计人民币未来进一步升值的空间可能有限，需警惕一定程度的回调风险。陶川表示，随着下半年美联储政策退坡预期升温，有理由相信美元当前的跌势不可持续。不过，人民币汇率市场本身具备较大的“惯性”，容易涨过头或跌过头。国际金融专家赵庆明说：“人民币汇率不会大升或大贬，‘进入新升值周期’的言论更是不切合实际。无论从国际上主要货币汇率的走势，还是过去几年人民币汇率的表现来看，涨涨跌跌才是常态。”升值如何影响股市？市场人士分析，人民币升值对国内股市总体构成利好，主要从两个链条产生影响：一是通过汇兑损益影响企业经营和财务表现；二是吸引外资流入。25日北上资金大幅净流入217.2亿元，创历史单日流入之最。A股大涨的同时，富时A50指数大涨4.5%。野村东方国际研究报告指出，人民币汇率升值或是25日股指大涨的诱因。“随着中国自身经济实力的增强、人民币国际化以及金融市场持续开放，人民币资产配置价值将有所提升。”明明分析，北向资金流入A股规模将逐步扩大。广发证券策略研究团队认为，人民币汇率升值将成为A股突破箱体震荡的推手。具体到板块上，综合机构观点看，人民币升值相对利好外债多、出口多、进口原料多等三类企业，航空、金融、地产、机械设备、家用电器、有色金属、化工、纺织服装、建筑装饰、汽车、造纸、钢铁、石油石化等行业是典型代表。此外黄文涛表示，流入债市的外资节奏与汇率相关性明显，强势人民币会给债市带来更多支撑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125256405,"gmtCreate":1624676777607,"gmtModify":1624676777607,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","listText":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","text":"叮咚买菜看多你买这么看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125256405","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":161387230,"gmtCreate":1623905427620,"gmtModify":1623905427620,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","listText":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","text":"芯片涨到发慌也抢不到货，严重缺货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161387230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3808,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183050784,"gmtCreate":1623295525848,"gmtModify":1623295525848,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好心态最重要","listText":"好心态最重要","text":"好心态最重要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183050784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116374989,"gmtCreate":1622777768641,"gmtModify":1622777768641,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"618来了，看好你京东物流","listText":"618来了，看好你京东物流","text":"618来了，看好你京东物流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 标准熊市看跌价差策略买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> 卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell&nbsp;put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","listText":"我以为PCE只是开胃小菜，没想到是主菜。盘前公布美国1月核心PCE大超预期，年率4.7%，高于预期4.3%，前值4.4%。核心PCE月率0.6%，高于预期0.4%，前值0.3%。公布后纳斯达克期货跌1.88%。问题是今天盘中还有三位美联储鹰派官员讲话：克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德和美联储理事沃勒。其中梅斯特就是加息50基点的支持者，上周四就是她发言后市场回调了。今晚即使有利空消息落地的拐弯，也得等他们仨说完话以后，谁知道他们会不会说支持下次加息50基点这种言论？但瞅美债收益率这个涨幅，感觉今晚很难再V起来。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 标准熊市看跌价差策略买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a> 卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT\">$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT\">$ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell&nbsp;put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","text":"我以为PCE只是开胃小菜，没想到是主菜。盘前公布美国1月核心PCE大超预期，年率4.7%，高于预期4.3%，前值4.4%。核心PCE月率0.6%，高于预期0.4%，前值0.3%。公布后纳斯达克期货跌1.88%。问题是今天盘中还有三位美联储鹰派官员讲话：克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德和美联储理事沃勒。其中梅斯特就是加息50基点的支持者，上周四就是她发言后市场回调了。今晚即使有利空消息落地的拐弯，也得等他们仨说完话以后，谁知道他们会不会说支持下次加息50基点这种言论？但瞅美债收益率这个涨幅，感觉今晚很难再V起来。$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 标准熊市看跌价差策略买$ARKK%2020230421%2036.0%20PUT$ $ARKK 20230421 36.0 PUT$ 卖$ARKK%2020230421%2030.0%20PUT$ $ARKK 20230421 30.0 PUT$ 总成交额应该是400多万，因为有sell put权利金对冲。到期日相当近，4月21日，交","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c20691321fab0846486e8b1e42ea61ab","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624841025","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222536,"gmtCreate":1677507484525,"gmtModify":1677507485899,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222536","repostId":"624384760","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624384760,"gmtCreate":1677078916250,"gmtModify":1677078943143,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"市场大跌，机构站队，意想不到的期权策略！","htmlText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","listText":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a> 的sell&nbsp;put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:&nbsp;","text":"不知道你们年初听没听过一种说法是，美股今年就算跌也不会跌太多，大约10%的震荡幅度。先开始我对这句话半信半疑，不过看了两个月的期权异动后感觉传闻不是空穴来风，从策略来看机构操作确实很保守，哪怕是昨晚大跌后。昨晚大跌原因，市场传闻是资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos在推特上爆料，暗示了美联储可能适合将通胀目标上调到什么水平。“克利夫兰联储的研究人员分析FOMC最新的经济展望。他们的模型预计，（美联储货币政策委员会）FOMC的失业率路径会让核心PCE通胀到2025年达到2.75%。”“要实现”2.1%的通胀预期，“一场严重的衰退是必要的”。面对意外带来的下跌，机构势必会有所动作，不过有两家公司的异动非常出乎意料$拼多多(PDD)$ 的sell put：昨天京东和拼多多股价双双暴跌，拼多多开盘跌9.9%。京东的百亿补贴对拼多多宣战，高息时代市场可能对现金流比较敏感，所以对烧钱行为本能拒绝。跌加近期中概股颓势，另外美元反弹趋势，似乎拼多多继续回调在所难免。但期权异动却显示机构在疯狂“抄底“，开盘后便有人卖出6月16日到期的put，行权价是和开盘价持平的85美元，期权总成交额166万美元。$PDD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $PDD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 这行权价，这到期日，信息量是不是很大？信息量更大的是，盘中有一张总成交额为3654万的大单:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f46105b56e488c399a77ea726aaff0e9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e96eea80c86460475a4d051fae12db","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/337084d803a04fe419e5712ae2698efe","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624384760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222274,"gmtCreate":1677507456598,"gmtModify":1677507458058,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222274","repostId":"624880702","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624880702,"gmtCreate":1677228583206,"gmtModify":1677228650386,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴23Q3财报分析：好过最慌时，恢复行径中","htmlText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","listText":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","text":"业绩回顾阿里巴巴公布 23财年Q3季度（截止22年12月31日）业绩，整体收入同比增长2.1%至2478亿元，与市场预期大致持平； 经调整EBITA同比增长16%至520亿元，高于市场预期13.3%；普通股东的净利润468.15亿元人民币(约合 67.88 亿美元)；调整后每ADS收益19.26元人民币，均高于市场预期。其中，核心平台电商的表现较弱，阿里系的淘宝天猫的客户管理收入（CMR）同比下降9%，在线实物商品GMV同比录得中单位数下降。而本季度表现较强的是菜鸟、国际零售、盒马等自营业务高速增长，其中菜鸟的收入同比增长17%至230.23亿元，国际零售收入同比增长26%，盒马的增长接近20%。业绩简评核心零售表现疲软，竞争依然激烈，期待疫后恢复。Q3电商业务的疲软，主要由于需求、 疫情 以及供应链的扰动，曾经的摇钱树淘宝天猫出现了GMV下滑，变现能力下滑，作为公司主要的现金流来源，的确是对利润率、自由现金流都有很大的影响。当然，Q3（10-12月）的疫情影响带来的变量太大，先是10-11月因疫情反复的停工，后是因12月员工休假带来的停工，我们认为因此不太能作为线性对比的一个季度。倒是竞争对手对阿里的核心零售带来的长期压力更大一些。抖音的电商页面上线，短期内还不能构成用户习惯的迁移，但抖音想要做大成“超级App”的目标已经越来越明显。而拼多多和京东在差异化上的特点保持得越来越明显。预期上来看，23Q4（1-3月）虽然不是购物旺季，但是阿里强项的可选消费在开始恢复，而京东的“百亿补贴”的确加强了行业内卷，但更多的是短期的行为。虽然管理层预期Q4 GMV依然有中个位数的下滑，但是CMR在2023年全年有望恢复同比增长。非核心业务表现亮眼，更多业务自食其力，期待单独部分估值提升。阿里原本亏损的业务都要逐步的减亏甚至扭亏为盈，包括本地生活的社区团购、菜鸟物流、盒马商超、高鑫零售、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1783996c16bc6df15a9fac40d74618cc","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8b27194f6797a449c581a56342c0dc5","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112d157cfa8c5300407f4df7a695fa01","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624880702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624222836,"gmtCreate":1677507430825,"gmtModify":1677507432178,"author":{"id":"3584006260901659","authorId":"3584006260901659","name":"a中侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02913310974f4cf4b8e7031c2617bb39","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584006260901659","idStr":"3584006260901659"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624222836","repostId":"624912478","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624912478,"gmtCreate":1676997328694,"gmtModify":1676997349449,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"最差预期：回到12月？","htmlText":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell&nbsp;call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>","listText":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell&nbsp;call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a>","text":"感觉即将进入3月，意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水，就在大家到处找原因的时候，普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动，继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧？普京宣布后反而反弹了，典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看，利好消息落地就是利空，利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线，这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。本周比较重要的是周四和周五，23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要，按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径，让市场和广大媒体都十分期待；24号公布1月PCE物价指数，不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。现在是什么走势啊？说轻一点适合sell call，说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。除了上面三件宏观大事以外，百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报，对汽车板块影响比较大。说说标题什么意思，意思很明显，这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动，毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现，近期put大单更是没看到踪影。当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过，比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略：买$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ $JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ 卖$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624912478","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}