a中侠
2023-02-27
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:
最差预期:回到12月?
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true}","description":"你想知道的期权知识都在这里,咨询期权问题@期权小助手","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672d6bc9cf055ebef009d5ee69bfef82"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"title":"最差预期:回到12月?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>感觉即将进入3月,意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水,就在大家到处找原因的时候,普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动,继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧?普京宣布后反而反弹了,典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看,利好消息落地就是利空,利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线,这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。</p><p>本周比较重要的是周四和周五,23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要,按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径,让市场和广大媒体都十分期待;24号公布1月PCE物价指数,不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。</p><p>现在是什么走势啊?说轻一点适合sell call,说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。</p><p>除了上面三件宏观大事以外,百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报,对汽车板块影响比较大。</p><p>说说标题什么意思,意思很明显,这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动,毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现,近期put大单更是没看到踪影。</p><p>当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过,比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>今天不仅跌到行权价,put翻倍,而且call权利金也可以99%确定收货囊中。</p><p>之所以可以肯定99%,是因为前几天有人大量卖出6月16日到期行权价为85的call<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL\">$JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230616 85.0 CALL\">$JD 20230616 85.0 CALL$ </a>,也就是说6月份之前京东大概率是涨不回85的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">由此可以看出机构今年策略都较为谨慎,以卖时间价值为主,尽量不判断方向。</p><p>京东sell call上方空间给的比较充裕,我之前提到过的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 神单就很难复制了,硬刚趋势:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">事实证明sell call行权价经过了时间的考验,那么接下来就要考验sell put 的行权价290了。我觉得大概率和360的结果一样,如果你想模仿sell put 的话建议找270这种12月最低位,以防止行权价压线时产生平仓的冲动。</p><p>然后不得不提另一个有sell put底线的价差大单:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>sell put行权价不需要做过多调整,日期可以做当周的或者近期的。交易者和上面京东的想法类似,但没想到微软这么快就开始了下跌趋势。</p><p>说起没想到这么快开始下跌趋势,不得不提上周做275平价sell put的哥们,竟然在周四平仓了,估计他也没想到美联储会在周四补刀吧。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>感觉即将进入3月,意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水,就在大家到处找原因的时候,普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动,继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧?普京宣布后反而反弹了,典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看,利好消息落地就是利空,利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线,这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。</p><p>本周比较重要的是周四和周五,23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要,按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径,让市场和广大媒体都十分期待;24号公布1月PCE物价指数,不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。</p><p>现在是什么走势啊?说轻一点适合sell call,说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。</p><p>除了上面三件宏观大事以外,百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报,对汽车板块影响比较大。</p><p>说说标题什么意思,意思很明显,这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动,毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现,近期put大单更是没看到踪影。</p><p>当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过,比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230421 47.5 PUT\">$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230317 90.0 CALL\">$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>今天不仅跌到行权价,put翻倍,而且call权利金也可以99%确定收货囊中。</p><p>之所以可以肯定99%,是因为前几天有人大量卖出6月16日到期行权价为85的call<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL\">$JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JD 20230616 85.0 CALL\">$JD 20230616 85.0 CALL$ </a>,也就是说6月份之前京东大概率是涨不回85的。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138558d22ee3d73c5761a6943088e2a8\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">由此可以看出机构今年策略都较为谨慎,以卖时间价值为主,尽量不判断方向。</p><p>京东sell call上方空间给的比较充裕,我之前提到过的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 神单就很难复制了,硬刚趋势:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">事实证明sell call行权价经过了时间的考验,那么接下来就要考验sell put 的行权价290了。我觉得大概率和360的结果一样,如果你想模仿sell put 的话建议找270这种12月最低位,以防止行权价压线时产生平仓的冲动。</p><p>然后不得不提另一个有sell put底线的价差大单:</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT\">$MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p>sell put行权价不需要做过多调整,日期可以做当周的或者近期的。交易者和上面京东的想法类似,但没想到微软这么快就开始了下跌趋势。</p><p>说起没想到这么快开始下跌趋势,不得不提上周做275平价sell put的哥们,竟然在周四平仓了,估计他也没想到美联储会在周四补刀吧。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51836c988e6320d4089f6e109aa4a3ee\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"感觉即将进入3月,意外事件有点多。盘前大盘突发跳水,就在大家到处找原因的时候,普京宣布继续对乌克兰军事行动,继而大盘反弹。很神奇吧?普京宣布后反而反弹了,典型的买传闻卖事实。从即时性来看,利好消息落地就是利空,利空消息落地就是利好。但拉长时间线,这些会被人提前利用的消息不会改变原有趋势。 本周比较重要的是周四和周五,23号凌晨公布FOMC1月议息纪要,按照鲍威尔的说法会涉及到降息路径,让市场和广大媒体都十分期待;24号公布1月PCE物价指数,不管高于预期还是低于预期都不影响现在走势。 现在是什么走势啊?说轻一点适合sell call,说重一点可以做熊市看跌价差策略了。 除了上面三件宏观大事以外,百度英伟达阿里CVNA财报也值得留意(目前没有期权异动)。特别是CVNA这家二手车公司财报,对汽车板块影响比较大。 说说标题什么意思,意思很明显,这轮回调最差目标是12月底。但是请先管住想要买put的冲动,毕竟重量级的特斯拉put大单都没出现,近期put大单更是没看到踪影。 当然也不是没有机构在第一季度put成功过,比如1月10号分享过的京东看跌策略: 买$JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ $JD 20230421 47.5 PUT$ 卖$JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ $JD 20230317 90.0 CALL$ 今天不仅跌到行权价,put翻倍,而且call权利金也可以99%确定收货囊中。 之所以可以肯定99%,是因为前几天有人大量卖出6月16日到期行权价为85的call$JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL$ $JD 20230616 85.0 CALL$ ,也就是说6月份之前京东大概率是涨不回85的。由此可以看出机构今年策略都较为谨慎,以卖时间价值为主,尽量不判断方向。 京东sell call上方空间给的比较充裕,我之前提到过的$奈飞(NFLX)$ 神单就很难复制了,硬刚趋势: 卖$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ $NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ 卖$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ $NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ 事实证明sell call行权价经过了时间的考验,那么接下来就要考验sell put 的行权价290了。我觉得大概率和360的结果一样,如果你想模仿sell put 的话建议找270这种12月最低位,以防止行权价压线时产生平仓的冲动。 然后不得不提另一个有sell put底线的价差大单: 买$MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ $MSFT 20230721 275.0 PUT$ 卖$MSFT 20230721 205.0 PUT$ sell put行权价不需要做过多调整,日期可以做当周的或者近期的。交易者和上面京东的想法类似,但没想到微软这么快就开始了下跌趋势。 说起没想到这么快开始下跌趋势,不得不提上周做275平价sell put的哥们,竟然在周四平仓了,估计他也没想到美联储会在周四补刀吧。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624912478","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NFLX","JD%2020230616%2085.0%20CALL","MSFT","JD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1943,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1476,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/624222836"}
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