4dda05f4的个人主页 - 老虎社区

4dda05f4

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2主题

0勋章

2021-12-10

$雍禾医疗(02279)$现在才告诉我没中签

2021-12-09

$固生堂(02273)$没中

2021-12-09

$固生堂(02273)$这么大的概率竟然没中

2021-12-06

$京东物流(02618)$你真是跌位多了下面很顺丰吧

2021-11-23

别人贪婪我恐惧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-28

$万物新生(RERE)$今晚就把你提了结账带的真弱

2021-10-28

$福耀玻璃(03606)$怎么突然那么多成交量了

2021-10-25

$福耀玻璃(03606)$高位已经突破了

2021-10-18

$微泰医疗-B(02235)$明天要涨13

2021-10-16

$万物新生(RERE)$怎么没有成交量呀

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$对不起没拿住你盘前把你割的痛痛的现在更是痛痛的[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$咱再跌20个点也就1.6美刀看看隔壁富途跌十个点试试

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$抄底的好时机可惜没子弹了

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$未来可期

2021-10-06

$谭仔国际(02217)$感谢不中

2021-09-15

小老虎虎起来

2021-09-14

在不释放点正面能力要破发的节奏

堃博医疗-B(02216)：前期投资者没有禁售期系误传所有现有股东均承诺上市起计六个月内“禁售期”

2021-06-26

每日优鲜你让叮咚买菜怎么火

2021-06-24

中大奖略略略略

2021-06-23

每日优鲜快乐到家

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/559585.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据市场传闻称，堃博医疗-B(02216)上市前期投资者没有禁售期，但从招股书中明确看出，所有堃博医疗控股有限公司（下称“公司”）的现有股东（包括首次公开发售前投资者）均受限于上市后至少6个月的禁售安排，这点在公司招股书（下称“招股书”）中的《包销》章节（第490页）已经明确进行披露。该披露具体为，所有现有股东（不包括已根据《上市规则》及根据香港包销协议单独提供禁售承诺的控股股东...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/559585.html\">Web 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2bbf64037287d4907ae8d0015a639b4\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">刚需高频、避开巨头、融入社交关系……，这些都是有爆发潜力的早期行业的特点。</p><p>虽然现在的社区团购已经具备比较成熟的运营模式和盈利潜力，但在2020年前社区团购刚刚兴起时，业务更多体现出早期项目的不确定性：社交链的不确定性、线上线下结合的脆弱性、运营管理的难度、规模经济的程度……，如果不是去年年初的疫情，社区团购的不确定期可能还要更长。</p><p>二级市场出现类似阶段的行业或产品时，常常有主题投资和概念炒作的特点，比如近期两个题材：</p><p>剧本杀：在游戏外衣下的情境社交，弱化竞技性，有可能成为有较长生命周期的新形态的娱乐产品。</p><p>元宇宙：沉浸式的虚拟空间，用户可在其中进行文化、社交、娱乐等丰富的活动，将区块链、游戏、网络算力、VR等技术或商业模式融为一体。</p><p>这类公司的投资本质是属于VC领域，十个中难以成功一个，对于一般投资者，应该避免介入。</p><p>2017年的按摩椅行业，荣泰健康当年选择加大投入当时的“共享按摩椅”业务，凭借这一概念，营收增长和估值都高于规模更大的奥佳华，但一年后，“共享经济”退潮，共享按摩椅虽然成为少数能产生正现金流的产品，但因为行业壁垒太低，利润空间全被商场拿走了，公司不得不考虑剥离这一块业务。</p><p><b>行业爆发期</b></p><p>到了这个阶段，由于需求、技术或商业模式被验证，产品跑通、资金到位，导致整个市场处于爆发期，各路玩家纷纷进入。</p><p>比如近期进入爆发期的行业中：社区团购是商业模式被验证，医美和新能源车是下游需求爆发，锂电和光伏兼具了技术突破，成本降到具有经济效益。</p><p>制造业的爆发有一定的不均衡性，往往非常突然，一般个人投资者不太好把握，更好的方向是选择爆发期没那么猛烈但持续时间比较长的新消费，比如冷冻烘焙食品。</p><p>面包连锁店不是好的商业模式，我在《不好的商业模式，是投资中的“事故多发地段”》一文讲过理由，“面包的制作工艺时间长、用料多，花样又多，总部很难控制加盟商的辅料的品质”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c163f94533343da45c172b0937adaf77\" tg-width=\"771\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>下游弱而散，就有希望出现一个强有力的上游2B的制造业企业，以立高食品为代表的冷冻烘焙厂商，近年来开始向下游的面包房提供冷冻成品和半成品，特别是后者，门店经过简单醒发、烘烤即可成为与现做面包口感完全一致的烘焙食品，时间更快，品质更可控、口感更统一、成本更低。</p><p>处于爆发期的行业，投资上最大的问题是估值失控，比如医美。</p><p>爆发式增长的行业很难估计其天花板的高度，以及高增长延续的时间，但确定性却不亚于成熟性行业，导致估值的弹性很大，股价往往由最乐观的投资者决定。</p><p>一旦行业龙头的估值失控，赚钱效应很容易引发主题投资和趋势投机资金，把板块内基本面一般的公司轮流炒一遍。投资者务必要分清有业绩但高估的龙头品种，和跟风炒作的品种。</p><p>需要说明的是，行业各阶段之间的界限并不绝对，进入爆发期的行业也并非就此上岸。</p><p>社区团购去年已经显示了强大的商业化能力，其商业空间看上去远大于传统的生鲜电商，但年底的政策风云突变，有可能把社区团购打回到第一阶段，或者其规模从此限制在一个细分的领域——当然，也可能只是让行业更规范，总之是增加了不确定性。</p><p><b>稳定增长期</b></p><p>虽然前两个阶段是“十倍股”的摇篮，但一般投资者不一定把握得了。A股的绝大部分公司的行业都处于“稳定增长期”的阶段，巴菲特的护城河理论也基本上属于这个阶段的企业。</p><p>短期而言，这个阶段的公司业绩爆发性不如前两个阶段，但长期而言，投资此阶段的收益并不低，A股目前更类似于巴菲特投资的黄金时代。</p><p>原因在于，中国有巨大的人口量、复杂的城市层次和统一的文化，而消费文化具有从高阶到低阶的传导性，很多产品在一线城市火几年，二、三线城市火几年，再传到四线城市，成长期也比其他市场长。而人口从低线城市向高线城市迁移，农村向城市迁移，加上中国制造具备的全球竞争力，又让这个过程更加复杂和漫长，导致大部分成熟行业都要经历至少十年以上的成长期。</p><p>所以像高瓴资本这样原本做一级市场的风险投资，近几年也把主要精力投身二级市场，且相当一部分都是处于成熟阶段的企业。</p><p>以大家电为例，这是中国最早具备全球竞争力的行业，25年前的成长股是长虹、康佳，15年前是格力，5年前是美的、老板，现在又重新轮到海尔一类定位中高端，具备海外扩张能力的公司。</p><p>这就导致很多投资者视之为成熟行业的家电行业，渗透率仍有很大空间，竞争格局好的空调龙头，可能还有十年7%以上的增长。</p><p>再从品类上看，从最早获得突破的黑电，到其次建立优势的白电，再到随房地产起来的厨电，从这些规模经济领域，发展到依赖产业链效率和功能创新的小家电，还有加入智能化浪潮的智能家电。</p><p>品类延伸与区域差异并存，造就了市场的深度与广度，在成熟品类站住脚的头部企业更容易走出第二增长曲线——老板发力洗碗机，海尔培养高端品牌，美的布局小家电，TCL进军上游面板行业。</p><p>成熟行业增长靠品类扩张，所以进入这个阶段的企业，投资者需要把公司的观察视角，从行业空间与产品竞争力的层面，转移到企业家精神与管理和组织文化的层面。只有解决管理半径的企业，才能拥有持续扩张的能力。当然，这就不是行业层面的问题了，留到分析管理能力的时候再说。</p><p><b>低增长期</b></p><p>过去，我们对夕阳行业的定义更多受到西方经济界的影响，等同于纺织钢铁采掘化工机械等传统初级制造业，实际原因是欧美初级制造业在全球化中，由于成本过高失去了竞争力而被转移到亚洲。所谓的“夕阳”，并不是这个行业需求下降或消失，而是企业将制造环节外包为供应链，导致这些产业转移到其他国家。</p><p>而且，全球化的每一次产业转移，首当其冲的都是这类传统初级制造行业，这才给投资者以夕阳行业的深刻影响。</p><p>事实上，要说传统、初级，农业更像夕阳行业，但任何一个国家都不会允许这类产业全球化，加上美国又有成本优势，所以就不“夕阳”了，这就是典型的西方视角的定义。</p><p>所以，这类初级制造行业的投资机会并不“夕阳”，我认为，中国很可能成为传统初级制造业转移的“终点站”，这类“夕阳行业”将在中国成为“日不落行业”，基于以下三个原因：</p><p>第一、再也无法找到更有比较优势的地区</p><p>传统初级制造业从欧美到日本再到“亚洲四小龙”，最后到中国，每一次都是因为后者有“比较优势”。比较优势比较的不仅仅是劳动力成本，还包括基础设施、内需市场规模、统一市场、政府治理能力，等等，但放眼全球，几乎没有一个地区可以完全接受中国传统制造业的转移。</p><p>第二、传统初级制造业竞争格局和管理能力的优化</p><p>不赚钱的行业，只要竞争格局优化到一定程度，产业出清，寡头出现，也能延缓产业链转移的趋势。这是因为，巨头有利润进行产业链一体化降低成本，有资本对国外企业进行收购，有技术在国外设厂，进行产能全球化布局。</p><p>巴菲特70年代投资伯克希尔巨亏的案例，给大家以美国纺织业在全球化中失败的印象，但这几年买申洲国际大赚的投资者，享受的恰恰是中国纺织服装加工行业产能转移到越南印度的红利。</p><p>产能的转移对企业的影响不同，当年欧美纺织服装企业走不出去，而今天的中国纺织服装业，虽然产能转移出去了，但企业还是这些企业，走出去的是企业，带回来的是利润，其原因正是前一条所说的中国企业血液中的“制造业基因”，能够适合不同的文化土壤。</p><p>第三、新技术对传统初级制造业的改造</p><p>前几次制造业的转移，不管是在美国生产，还是在日本、韩国生产，除了机器设备更先进，产品有一些升级，其制造方式并没有本质的变化。</p><p>可制造业转移到中国之后，恰逢互联网大潮进入2B的制造领域，不管是十年前的“鼠标+水泥”，还是五年前的“互联网+”，制造业的生产方式都有了本质的变化。</p><p>以国联股份为例，解决的是中小企业低成本采购问题，聚合众多下游企业，利用“集采”的模式向上游供应商砍价，使中小企业也能获得大企业的采购成本优势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54db6ef986216d7d0ffb068c2eba690\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这个模式要求互联网平台已经积累了大量专业客户，并能够提供高度垂直、高度细分的产品，同时能提供低成本的物流仓储服务，这就要求数字化、云化服务的技术积淀，有一定的壁垒。</p><p>从物流到采购再到生产，工业互联网对传统制造业的改造，很可能让这些传统行业不再过度依赖低成本和支付环境代价，永远地留在中国，或者把利润留在中国。</p><p>如果只看行业增速，白酒就是标准的“夕阳行业”。对于这一类不增长的行业而言，胜在竞争格局导致的龙头确定性强，好在融资需求下降，利润增速高于营收增速，股东回报大于规模增长，反而是普通投资者容易把握的机会。</p><p><b>前景不明期</b></p><p>传统初级制造业一点也不“夕阳”，真正的“夕阳行业”往往是因为新技术、新产品和新商业模式出现，进入需求下降的行业，类似传统相机、普通手表、普通仿制药、上一代电子产品，等等。</p><p>已经出现需求下降的行业是很好判断的，难的是未来需求不明的行业，比如房地产行业中的新房开发。</p><p>这里并不是说房地产是夕阳行业，房地产当然是永续经营的行业，但我国目前的新房开发模式，面临未来的需求不明确的问题。我国的人均住房面积世界第五，又面临人口下降，未来二手房占比越来越高，再加上七十年产权的问题，让未来新房开发模式很难预计。</p><p>投资，千万不要在需求不明确的行业里赌自己的运气。当年长虹低估了液晶电视替代的速度，大量囤积彩管，想通过价格战垄断上游材料扩大份额，结果反而加速了液晶电视的替代，自己陷入财务危机。</p><p><b>行业发展如飞行棋</b></p><p>下面是金·卡戴珊给儿子的生日礼物——一台三一重工的微型挖掘机，这不是明星搞怪，微型挖掘机是去年美国中产家庭的消费清单上，在大House，大泳池，大草坪之后的新晋网红——家里没有挖掘机，你都不知道出门跟邻居聊啥。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf6163cc8f6105ee5b459116d6225a1\" tg-width=\"358\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>挖掘机一度被认为是夕阳行业，认为需求会随着基建工程的减少而萎缩，事实上，不光是美国，在日本，微型挖掘机也因为人口老龄化而变成无所不能的“神器”。</p><p>本文虽然列了五个阶段，但现实世界里，行业发展就像“飞行棋”，一开始投出“6”才能真正出发，一路上以前进为主，偶尔能“连续飞行”，但也常常遇到“后退几步”，甚至因犯规被“停止一次”，甚至被“打回大本营”的极刑。</p><p>最大困扰还是来自竞争对手，特别是大家拥挤在同一个阶段时，一不小心就会被干掉。一开局领先，不一定能把领先优势进行到底，但到了后半程，拉开相当的差距后，只要自己不犯致命错误，很可能会将领先优势带到终局。</p><p>然而，不管你多么领先对手接近终局，只要对手有能力掀翻桌子，重开一局，在一个新的战场上，你所有的优势都将荡然无存，这也是商业竞争的游戏中最残酷、最刺激、不断吸引新玩家入场的一点。</p>","source":"sxgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5000字深度解析，如何分析行业未来的发展空间？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5000字深度解析，如何分析行业未来的发展空间？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-07 20:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q><strong> 思想钢印</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>行业所处发展阶段为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？为什么有些互联网公司亏损时，可以给20倍PS，盈利后，却只能给5倍？为什么巴菲特不早点买苹果？为什么投一级市场的高瓴要来投二级市场？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。打个比方，你比小孩子力气大，但是小孩子能长个儿，你却...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f59fb09a173927167f5a919497dce449","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vjFcnbuu3MUCEkb115384Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134192115","content_text":"行业所处发展阶段为什么同样是食品饮料行业、或同样是医药行业，在同样增速的情况下，有些公司60倍PE起步，有些只有20倍呢？为什么有些互联网公司亏损时，可以给20倍PS，盈利后，却只能给5倍？为什么巴菲特不早点买苹果？为什么投一级市场的高瓴要来投二级市场？这些问题的答案都与行业发展阶段有关，处于不同阶段的企业，未来的变化、发展空间和终局都可能不同。打个比方，你比小孩子力气大，但是小孩子能长个儿，你却不能，所以小孩子的估值就应该比你高。我在《5000字深度：如何在30分钟内，快速判断一家公司的投资价值？》一文中说：行业空间重点看三个因素，行业所处发展阶段、周期性和永续性，其中最重要的就是“行业所处发展阶段”，我习惯将其分成五个阶段：空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期，比如氢能源车、第三代半导体、OLED、量子计算机行业消费爆发、商业模式成型或者技术突破后的高速发展期，比如锂电、光伏、人工智能应用、部分医药行业、部分新消费行业稳定增长期：大部分行业都处于这个阶段发展停滞期：大部分所谓“夕阳行业”都处于这个阶段前景不明期：未来有可能被替代或大众变小众的行业，比如传统的新住宅开发、传统的超市百货、纸媒本文就以国内上市公司的行业为例，分析一下这五个阶段的投资特点。空间看似很大但非常不确定的早期这一类公司理论上应该是VC、PE投资的阶段，不在二级市场考虑范围内，但有两种情况例外——上市公司体内培育的新商业模式，或者上市公司的产品忽然出现了某个新应用方向。以美团和拼多多发力的社区团购业务为例，2020年之前就处于这一“不确定”的阶段，之所以引起投资者的注意，因为其行业空间和商业模式都非常有吸引力：1、行业空间：主打低价生活必需品，高频高粘性，面对的是最广泛人群的最基本的需求，主打下沉市场，避开电商和传统商业巨头的竞争（指的是两年前），“线上+线下”场景结合，具有大空间刚需永续性的多个特点。2、商业模式：“预售+自提”的模式避开所有现行零售体系高成本的部分，不用“最后一公里配送”，无库存、简单的中心仓，并以“团长”这个特殊的角色融入消费者的社交体系。刚需高频、避开巨头、融入社交关系……，这些都是有爆发潜力的早期行业的特点。虽然现在的社区团购已经具备比较成熟的运营模式和盈利潜力，但在2020年前社区团购刚刚兴起时，业务更多体现出早期项目的不确定性：社交链的不确定性、线上线下结合的脆弱性、运营管理的难度、规模经济的程度……，如果不是去年年初的疫情，社区团购的不确定期可能还要更长。二级市场出现类似阶段的行业或产品时，常常有主题投资和概念炒作的特点，比如近期两个题材：剧本杀：在游戏外衣下的情境社交，弱化竞技性，有可能成为有较长生命周期的新形态的娱乐产品。元宇宙：沉浸式的虚拟空间，用户可在其中进行文化、社交、娱乐等丰富的活动，将区块链、游戏、网络算力、VR等技术或商业模式融为一体。这类公司的投资本质是属于VC领域，十个中难以成功一个，对于一般投资者，应该避免介入。2017年的按摩椅行业，荣泰健康当年选择加大投入当时的“共享按摩椅”业务，凭借这一概念，营收增长和估值都高于规模更大的奥佳华，但一年后，“共享经济”退潮，共享按摩椅虽然成为少数能产生正现金流的产品，但因为行业壁垒太低，利润空间全被商场拿走了，公司不得不考虑剥离这一块业务。行业爆发期到了这个阶段，由于需求、技术或商业模式被验证，产品跑通、资金到位，导致整个市场处于爆发期，各路玩家纷纷进入。比如近期进入爆发期的行业中：社区团购是商业模式被验证，医美和新能源车是下游需求爆发，锂电和光伏兼具了技术突破，成本降到具有经济效益。制造业的爆发有一定的不均衡性，往往非常突然，一般个人投资者不太好把握，更好的方向是选择爆发期没那么猛烈但持续时间比较长的新消费，比如冷冻烘焙食品。面包连锁店不是好的商业模式，我在《不好的商业模式，是投资中的“事故多发地段”》一文讲过理由，“面包的制作工艺时间长、用料多，花样又多，总部很难控制加盟商的辅料的品质”。下游弱而散，就有希望出现一个强有力的上游2B的制造业企业，以立高食品为代表的冷冻烘焙厂商，近年来开始向下游的面包房提供冷冻成品和半成品，特别是后者，门店经过简单醒发、烘烤即可成为与现做面包口感完全一致的烘焙食品，时间更快，品质更可控、口感更统一、成本更低。处于爆发期的行业，投资上最大的问题是估值失控，比如医美。爆发式增长的行业很难估计其天花板的高度，以及高增长延续的时间，但确定性却不亚于成熟性行业，导致估值的弹性很大，股价往往由最乐观的投资者决定。一旦行业龙头的估值失控，赚钱效应很容易引发主题投资和趋势投机资金，把板块内基本面一般的公司轮流炒一遍。投资者务必要分清有业绩但高估的龙头品种，和跟风炒作的品种。需要说明的是，行业各阶段之间的界限并不绝对，进入爆发期的行业也并非就此上岸。社区团购去年已经显示了强大的商业化能力，其商业空间看上去远大于传统的生鲜电商，但年底的政策风云突变，有可能把社区团购打回到第一阶段，或者其规模从此限制在一个细分的领域——当然，也可能只是让行业更规范，总之是增加了不确定性。稳定增长期虽然前两个阶段是“十倍股”的摇篮，但一般投资者不一定把握得了。A股的绝大部分公司的行业都处于“稳定增长期”的阶段，巴菲特的护城河理论也基本上属于这个阶段的企业。短期而言，这个阶段的公司业绩爆发性不如前两个阶段，但长期而言，投资此阶段的收益并不低，A股目前更类似于巴菲特投资的黄金时代。原因在于，中国有巨大的人口量、复杂的城市层次和统一的文化，而消费文化具有从高阶到低阶的传导性，很多产品在一线城市火几年，二、三线城市火几年，再传到四线城市，成长期也比其他市场长。而人口从低线城市向高线城市迁移，农村向城市迁移，加上中国制造具备的全球竞争力，又让这个过程更加复杂和漫长，导致大部分成熟行业都要经历至少十年以上的成长期。所以像高瓴资本这样原本做一级市场的风险投资，近几年也把主要精力投身二级市场，且相当一部分都是处于成熟阶段的企业。以大家电为例，这是中国最早具备全球竞争力的行业，25年前的成长股是长虹、康佳，15年前是格力，5年前是美的、老板，现在又重新轮到海尔一类定位中高端，具备海外扩张能力的公司。这就导致很多投资者视之为成熟行业的家电行业，渗透率仍有很大空间，竞争格局好的空调龙头，可能还有十年7%以上的增长。再从品类上看，从最早获得突破的黑电，到其次建立优势的白电，再到随房地产起来的厨电，从这些规模经济领域，发展到依赖产业链效率和功能创新的小家电，还有加入智能化浪潮的智能家电。品类延伸与区域差异并存，造就了市场的深度与广度，在成熟品类站住脚的头部企业更容易走出第二增长曲线——老板发力洗碗机，海尔培养高端品牌，美的布局小家电，TCL进军上游面板行业。成熟行业增长靠品类扩张，所以进入这个阶段的企业，投资者需要把公司的观察视角，从行业空间与产品竞争力的层面，转移到企业家精神与管理和组织文化的层面。只有解决管理半径的企业，才能拥有持续扩张的能力。当然，这就不是行业层面的问题了，留到分析管理能力的时候再说。低增长期过去，我们对夕阳行业的定义更多受到西方经济界的影响，等同于纺织钢铁采掘化工机械等传统初级制造业，实际原因是欧美初级制造业在全球化中，由于成本过高失去了竞争力而被转移到亚洲。所谓的“夕阳”，并不是这个行业需求下降或消失，而是企业将制造环节外包为供应链，导致这些产业转移到其他国家。而且，全球化的每一次产业转移，首当其冲的都是这类传统初级制造行业，这才给投资者以夕阳行业的深刻影响。事实上，要说传统、初级，农业更像夕阳行业，但任何一个国家都不会允许这类产业全球化，加上美国又有成本优势，所以就不“夕阳”了，这就是典型的西方视角的定义。所以，这类初级制造行业的投资机会并不“夕阳”，我认为，中国很可能成为传统初级制造业转移的“终点站”，这类“夕阳行业”将在中国成为“日不落行业”，基于以下三个原因：第一、再也无法找到更有比较优势的地区传统初级制造业从欧美到日本再到“亚洲四小龙”，最后到中国，每一次都是因为后者有“比较优势”。比较优势比较的不仅仅是劳动力成本，还包括基础设施、内需市场规模、统一市场、政府治理能力，等等，但放眼全球，几乎没有一个地区可以完全接受中国传统制造业的转移。第二、传统初级制造业竞争格局和管理能力的优化不赚钱的行业，只要竞争格局优化到一定程度，产业出清，寡头出现，也能延缓产业链转移的趋势。这是因为，巨头有利润进行产业链一体化降低成本，有资本对国外企业进行收购，有技术在国外设厂，进行产能全球化布局。巴菲特70年代投资伯克希尔巨亏的案例，给大家以美国纺织业在全球化中失败的印象，但这几年买申洲国际大赚的投资者，享受的恰恰是中国纺织服装加工行业产能转移到越南印度的红利。产能的转移对企业的影响不同，当年欧美纺织服装企业走不出去，而今天的中国纺织服装业，虽然产能转移出去了，但企业还是这些企业，走出去的是企业，带回来的是利润，其原因正是前一条所说的中国企业血液中的“制造业基因”，能够适合不同的文化土壤。第三、新技术对传统初级制造业的改造前几次制造业的转移，不管是在美国生产，还是在日本、韩国生产，除了机器设备更先进，产品有一些升级，其制造方式并没有本质的变化。可制造业转移到中国之后，恰逢互联网大潮进入2B的制造领域，不管是十年前的“鼠标+水泥”，还是五年前的“互联网+”，制造业的生产方式都有了本质的变化。以国联股份为例，解决的是中小企业低成本采购问题，聚合众多下游企业，利用“集采”的模式向上游供应商砍价，使中小企业也能获得大企业的采购成本优势。这个模式要求互联网平台已经积累了大量专业客户，并能够提供高度垂直、高度细分的产品，同时能提供低成本的物流仓储服务，这就要求数字化、云化服务的技术积淀，有一定的壁垒。从物流到采购再到生产，工业互联网对传统制造业的改造，很可能让这些传统行业不再过度依赖低成本和支付环境代价，永远地留在中国，或者把利润留在中国。如果只看行业增速，白酒就是标准的“夕阳行业”。对于这一类不增长的行业而言，胜在竞争格局导致的龙头确定性强，好在融资需求下降，利润增速高于营收增速，股东回报大于规模增长，反而是普通投资者容易把握的机会。前景不明期传统初级制造业一点也不“夕阳”，真正的“夕阳行业”往往是因为新技术、新产品和新商业模式出现，进入需求下降的行业，类似传统相机、普通手表、普通仿制药、上一代电子产品，等等。已经出现需求下降的行业是很好判断的，难的是未来需求不明的行业，比如房地产行业中的新房开发。这里并不是说房地产是夕阳行业，房地产当然是永续经营的行业，但我国目前的新房开发模式，面临未来的需求不明确的问题。我国的人均住房面积世界第五，又面临人口下降，未来二手房占比越来越高，再加上七十年产权的问题，让未来新房开发模式很难预计。投资，千万不要在需求不明确的行业里赌自己的运气。当年长虹低估了液晶电视替代的速度，大量囤积彩管，想通过价格战垄断上游材料扩大份额，结果反而加速了液晶电视的替代，自己陷入财务危机。行业发展如飞行棋下面是金·卡戴珊给儿子的生日礼物——一台三一重工的微型挖掘机，这不是明星搞怪，微型挖掘机是去年美国中产家庭的消费清单上，在大House，大泳池，大草坪之后的新晋网红——家里没有挖掘机，你都不知道出门跟邻居聊啥。挖掘机一度被认为是夕阳行业，认为需求会随着基建工程的减少而萎缩，事实上，不光是美国，在日本，微型挖掘机也因为人口老龄化而变成无所不能的“神器”。本文虽然列了五个阶段，但现实世界里，行业发展就像“飞行棋”，一开始投出“6”才能真正出发，一路上以前进为主，偶尔能“连续飞行”，但也常常遇到“后退几步”，甚至因犯规被“停止一次”，甚至被“打回大本营”的极刑。最大困扰还是来自竞争对手，特别是大家拥挤在同一个阶段时，一不小心就会被干掉。一开局领先，不一定能把领先优势进行到底，但到了后半程，拉开相当的差距后，只要自己不犯致命错误，很可能会将领先优势带到终局。然而，不管你多么领先对手接近终局，只要对手有能力掀翻桌子，重开一局，在一个新的战场上，你所有的优势都将荡然无存，这也是商业竞争的游戏中最残酷、最刺激、不断吸引新玩家入场的一点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875689185,"gmtCreate":1637642513564,"gmtModify":1637642513564,"author":{"id":"3583530859704900","authorId":"3583530859704900","name":"4dda05f4","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583530859704900","idStr":"3583530859704900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"别人贪婪我恐惧&nbsp;","listText":"别人贪婪我恐惧&nbsp;","text":"别人贪婪我恐惧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875689185","repostId":"2185093468","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2185093468","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637628371,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2185093468?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 08:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"已到可以贪婪时！机构发话，港股投资机会何在？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2185093468","media":"证券时报网","summary":"港股的投资情绪处在边际修复的过程中，呈现波动筑底向上的趋势。多位买方人士认为，港股到了“已经可以贪婪的时刻”。博时基金有关人士表示，流动性方面，海外和南下资金均呈现企稳迹象。单文也认为，综合而言，多维度的因素共同导致港股的波动，但是已经出现诸多边际改善的信号。博时基金表示，今年港股受压制的主要原因在于行业政策以及债务违约对地产、银行等权重板块的冲击。","content":"<div>\n<p>在全球增长动能放缓、通胀高企、美元流动性边际收紧、国内政策聚焦稳增长的背景下，港股四季度整体维持震荡，恒生指数、恒生国企指数小幅收涨。\n港股的投资情绪处在边际修复的过程中，呈现波动筑底向上的趋势。在海外资金与南下资金逐渐企稳以及估值处于相对历史低位的环境下，关于“当下是配置港股好时机”的市场观点也逐渐增多。多位买方人士认为，港股到了“已经可以贪婪的时刻”。\n港股边际效应改善\n工银瑞信基金投资副总监...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-11-23/doc-iktzqtyu8916206.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n已到可以贪婪时！机构发话，港股投资机会何在？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-23 08:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-11-23/doc-iktzqtyu8916206.shtml><strong>证券时报网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在全球增长动能放缓、通胀高企、美元流动性边际收紧、国内政策聚焦稳增长的背景下，港股四季度整体维持震荡，恒生指数、恒生国企指数小幅收涨。\n港股的投资情绪处在边际修复的过程中，呈现波动筑底向上的趋势。在海外资金与南下资金逐渐企稳以及估值处于相对历史低位的环境下，关于“当下是配置港股好时机”的市场观点也逐渐增多。多位买方人士认为，港股到了“已经可以贪婪的时刻”。\n港股边际效应改善\n工银瑞信基金投资副总监...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-11-23/doc-iktzqtyu8916206.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2021-11-23/doc-iktzqtyu8916206.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2185093468","content_text":"在全球增长动能放缓、通胀高企、美元流动性边际收紧、国内政策聚焦稳增长的背景下，港股四季度整体维持震荡，恒生指数、恒生国企指数小幅收涨。\n港股的投资情绪处在边际修复的过程中，呈现波动筑底向上的趋势。在海外资金与南下资金逐渐企稳以及估值处于相对历史低位的环境下，关于“当下是配置港股好时机”的市场观点也逐渐增多。多位买方人士认为，港股到了“已经可以贪婪的时刻”。\n港股边际效应改善\n工银瑞信基金投资副总监、香港和成长投资能力中心负责人单文对证券时报记者表示，全球宏观经济走势、地产债情绪、互联网监管政策和基本面等多重因素导致港股近期震荡回暖，香港市场目前流动性处于相对平稳状态，海外中资股的估值也处于历史较低水平，港股边际改善趋势逐渐明朗。\n博时基金有关人士表示，流动性方面，海外和南下资金均呈现企稳迹象。政策冲击驱动的资金快速流出阶段已过去，近期海外资金与南下资金均呈现企稳迹象。海外资金被动流入明显增长，10月以来南下资金流入最多的板块依然集中在互联网龙头。估值方面，恒生指数、恒生国企、恒生科技指数PE（TTM）处于30%历史分位附近或以下，估值优势明显。\n单文也认为，综合而言，多维度的因素共同导致港股的波动，但是已经出现诸多边际改善的信号。\n长期配置价值凸显\n那么，目前港股投资机会如何？单文认为，港股市场估值有一定相对优势，并且老经济处于历史估值底部，但综合盈利周期、国内外流动性、中美关系和估值、基本面等多重因素考量，港股短期仍然面临挑战。同时，边际改善趋势逐渐明朗，长期配置价值逐渐凸显。\n单文表示，短期来看，港股部分核心资产基本面压力仍然较大，一方面来自于宏观经济增速放缓，另一方面公司也需要适应新的监管规则，履行更多社会责任，加大投入等等。综合宏观和微观层面看，企业基本面拐点可能会出现在明年下半年。中期来看，港股的新经济股票目前有不错的估值性价比和稀缺性。政策预期改善比较明确，叠加明年下半年基本面复苏展望，港股的投资价值会逐渐显现。同时，中美关系缓和、政策边际宽松都有利于资金增配港股。\n广发基金国际业务部负责人李耀柱对记者表示，港股在今年受到外部环境影响，估值出现大幅回落；目前无论是横向对比其他主要权益市场，还是对比自身，估值分位均处于相对低的位置。虽然明年国内经济增速或有可能趋缓，但宽松政策的空间较大，叠加上游原材料价格回落后中下游企业的活力修复，预计明年港股的配置价值会显著增加。\n单文认为，长期而言，看好资金配置港股的大趋势。一是中概股回归，港股将成为新经济的主战场，配置价值和稀缺性凸显；二是恒生指数改革，强化香港离岸金融中心的代表性和可投性；三是中长期内地居民、公募基金等资金配置港股资产的比例将持续提高。\n港股投资机会何在？\n那么，港股哪些投资机会值得重点关注？单文认为，对于南下资金而言，港股中的特色标的和板块包括互联网、物业管理、运动服装、生物科技等等；对于海外投资者来说，大型科技股是最能代表中国经济发展前景、商业模式优秀的投资标的。\n综合而言，长期看好港股中市场空间较大、商业模式较好、稀缺性较强的互联网科技、生物医药等板块。同时，单文表示：“考虑到港股市场的特殊性，应当更加强调自下而上精选个股的方式，去挑选投资机会。”\n永赢基金表示，近期宏观经济形势依旧疲弱，企业盈利受到影响，港股股价缺乏向上动能。从行业看，房地产受政策影响尚未恢复，整个房地产产业链均受掣肘；互联网行业高压政策已近尾声，但尚有余温，目前股价表现一般，但投资机会即将出现，对板块保持关注；汽车行业面临整体需求端较弱的问题，从中期维度持续关注投资机遇。个股表现很大一部分基于公司自身增长性，从这一维度看，我们看好具备较好增长能见度的公司。\n博时基金表示，今年港股受压制的主要原因在于行业政策以及债务违约对地产、银行等权重板块的冲击。行业监管压力边际改善，可关注互联网龙头、医药板块；价格压力缓解，可关注前期受涨价压制的中下游，消费板块。从长期产业布局来看，可关注碳中和、新能源产业链、汽车及零部件。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854098652,"gmtCreate":1635409014414,"gmtModify":1635409157478,"author":{"id":"3583530859704900","authorId":"3583530859704900","name":"4dda05f4","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583530859704900","idStr":"3583530859704900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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