$Sea Ltd(SE)$this analyst was the one who downgraded SEA. And this is his track record. Do your own DD as to how useful his analysis is pertaining to SEA. a -21.4% average return and a 25% success rate sounds like if you follow his advice, it is the noind leading the blind and both will fall into a ditch
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$when governments come together to press these businesses like Uber, Deliveroo, Grab, to bear additional costs, Grab will sink further with losses. Heavy laden, in the end, it will fall to a point where PE will come attempt to take it private at a cheap price. Bagholders will be in tears.
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$why this stock price will correct sooner than later? It is in the math. They confirmed it themselves. ARK calculated that in 2030, there will be ~1.3 trillion in enterprise value attributable to the vehicle manufacturing layer of the value chain on ~80 million unitsRivian is *hoping* to get to ~1% share by 2030. The market tries to front run the price and price in the future. However, based on its current value, the noob investor who is FOMOing is buying at a value today at ~10% of that possible market cap. That makes no sense at all. $TESLA is calculated to win 25% entire automotive market. And the market is pricing that in appropriately. $Rivian is completely off. To make headway in this
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$you guys have no idea how much the short sellers are making from the downward price action for Grab. Some folks have taken home double to triple amounts!
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$for some reason, I'm not buying into this stock. I've read up about its capabilities but the TAM seems to be effy and on a niche need-basis. A lot of G projects. Corporate wise, still growing. Moat? Scalability? Yes on moat. But market is not as big as it would seem. Its positioning as an expert in finding the data needle in the haystack and making sense of the complexity behind data provided makes it seem that only spy agencies, intelligence and, espionage, and military ops would want it. Corporate wise, there could be applications no doubt. But I have doubts on its scaling. Given that each approach is tailored. Stickability? Yes and no. A customer can return to ask for something else. But c
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$I repeat - the business itself is hemorrhaging cash. Without the backing, it was destined to fail. If you're an investor and judge the stock price on the back of a Fed taper AND an interest rate hike which will affect businesses that take on debt, you will discount this several times to about $3 or less to make it sensible to buy the stock.
I caught the video of Cathie Wood and her explanation on traditional stocks - automakers like Ford, energy and financials being in their all time highs even though they are technically slow growing in nature - and that the valuations of these stocks are in bubble territory. For those of you who have not watched that video yet, I highly encourage you to watch it. Some of you may be dissing Cathie and saying all sorts of nasty things about ARK ETFs at the moment but quite a number of you who bet against innovation at this juncture are going to be in for a rude awakening. And before you go on saying that I am an avid supporter, let me caveat that I drill down to fundamentals and go by rationale of what establishes the best potential for the future and likely gains that can be accrued. Fi
$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$I'm long MQ. I bought near its lowest and have prepared cash to buy more. No brainer stock. Its powerful moat sets up payment rails for banks, companies like BILL.com, Amazon, Affirm, JP Morgan, Mastercard, Square, even crypto companies, like most of the companies you can think of, and with so many more to come, it is the backbone behind their card payment systems. Think of MQ like a toll booth, with each transaction, it collects a token sum. With high volume, you sit and collect money. 1 transaction, a small percentage of fees that is lower than the cost for the company that uses it to set up. Naturally, the company will use it. PTs are about $40 to $50. Regardless of Fed tapering, this stock will take off because taper or
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Shorted Rivian not once, not twice, not thrice but SIX TIMES over two nights. A tight maneuver to execute as I was aware of MMs on the side that might come in to buy up and lead to a reversal, so the shorts were short and sharp. In, plunder, out. It was a very sad day for many much younger and financially unsavvy folks. Some wrote to me and asked what they could do as they were enticed by friends to join in the frenzy to take the stock to the moon. When I saw the opening price action, from IPO day, and then how it carried through, reaching such a valuation as to surpass VW, along with its business fundamentals, I knew trouble was brewing. Three nights ago, I informed those whom I am closer to that I was
In a tapering, liquidity comes out from the system. It will usually hit growth stocks first. As you can tell, many growth stocks have been hit. More than 4 in 10 NASDAQ 100 stocks are trading below 200 DMA. This is only the beginning. Here is how I plan to make money through this. The correction is not over and the loftiest stocks have not experienced the full decline or entered into complete valuation reset. I believe that there is room for further correction and will apply shorts on tech heavy areas like ETFs/funds. These are most vulnerable. Now with the African variant in, this will accelerate the downtrend. Don't follow the moonboys and crazy folks saying to "buy dips" or "hodl". Better to know why you are buying or holding. Don't be the bag holder. That is not a smart inves
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$The market sell down is sending a clear and decisive signal - no earnings report is good enough. Even if you meet expectations, you do go down. You missit a little, you go down a lot. You beat expectations? Well, by how much? Oh who cares. Down you go too. That's the state of affairs now.
We need to watch the indicators closely for a rollover of the indices. Breadth deterioration is in and the S&P500 just did a twin peak. There will not be a plunge in the indices unless something huge happens, but we are probably seeing the last gasp before the toilet flush. I'm not a technical analyst, more of a macro overview that I follow but we will probably see this flush take place across a period of a few weeks/months, as the market makes its way down. There will of course be short rallies here and there as investors buy into their favourite stocks and hedge funds take positions. But generally, the trend will be down, given the receding liquidity. Will growth stocks be hit? We have recently found a floor of sorts. Well, if the indices go down, they usually will create a drag
Next big ideas. I've cashed out of darlings, some of which came up tops during the 2020 soar. This includes plays in hydrogen power (entered at about $14, cashed out at $66), cruise liners (the moment they plunged by 80% of their pre pandemic price, I went in hard and 2x within a week, and then cashed out and moved on), pharmaceuticals (nope, not the usual suspects that created your vaccines. Don't like to follow too closely to things that are good for one season.), etc. This are my next season plays:1. Air taxis (yes, the tech is there. The vehicles have proven concept, and orders are already made for delivery). 2. Space tech (these are low orbit levels, not tourism to the Moon - to highly priced in tickets. So virgin Galactic is out. I'm looking at communications tech, nav
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$if you're still thinking about whatholding in this Fed taper environment, rethink. My PT earlier mentioned will be achieved. I was thinking $3 a share, but the landing point may well be around $5 to $6.50. No crystal ball, but given that Grab just burnt more money buying a supermarket chain, it means it is trying to use the dynamics of showing growing revenue in some way. Sounds good? Nope. They paid a darn huge premium for it. Yes, your FOMO shareholders money. Not the management's. They will burn your money to show it on their annual report that they grew revenue. Then hope the profit margins from that supermarket chain will make up and cover losses from the ride hailing services. That is classic MBA diversification.
Why I will not want to invest in $Roku Inc(ROKU)$I'll be brief with my points so you know my thoughts quickly on the matter and can weigh in your own.1. Red ocean territory. Go read up and understand red vs blue ocean if you're wondering on this phrase. There is a myriad of entertainment platforms. Why in the world do you necessarily need to go through Roku? Baffles me. 2. Declining user base. The additions are smaller. They are spending and spending to grow the base but it is not keeping pace of the expectation of a tech stock. 3. Nothing spectacular. They are trying to use a platform to gather a user base and generate the same old ARPU model. There are different customer profiles across that base. Yes, attraction, retention, upsellin
$KUAISHOU-W(01024)$this is going to face huge trouble in the coming interest rare hikes. Yes it has grown revenue and yes investors don't mind losses when revenue grows. But.... not when the widening losses are so wide, it makes you question the route to profitability over the longer term especially when interest hikes are on the table with the Fed. Because borrowing costs will keep rising and wear profit margins down further. Look at how bad the cash flows are. And on top of that, huge losses. This will take a while before it makes sense to invest. In the short term, my TP for stock comes to about 35 to 45 dollars or about half of what its price is now. This will make it a more palatable entry. The fact that it went up to HK400 before collapsing an
$Zoom(ZM)$why would any one want this stock, it baffles me. There is no real moat about this business. Google and Microsoft that already have existing platforms serving existing customers can easily replicate the tech to meet presentation and virtual meeting needs. I understand that through the pandemic it became a big deal but honestly speaking look, it would not take long for businesses to use the free tools in Google Meet or Microsoft Teams as these two giants catch up.
Years of abundance followed by years of famine. Boom and bust. Ebb and flow. Patterns and principles. Don't follow the advice of moonboys. When they say "grab the dippppppp!!", we need to be cautious because it is not time... yet. A bloodbath needs to be seen first with enough pain. I'm already seeing folks online buying on margin, to the tune of 7 figures hoping to double down. I can assure you, the bounce that they are looking for ain't there. And if the margin call comes, they will lose their homes and even their pants. Those who were once flaunting their lifestyles with all the free money floating around, who strutted their stuff and made it seem they had the sense of the market will feel the sting of the receding liquidity. Not that it has become huge already since tapering just
Inflationary vs Deflationary - implications on tech/growth
Last decade since 2008 GFC, during the QE initiated by Fed to prevent the world from imploding from all the MBS as the music stopped, the feared inflation from all that "money pumping" did not happen. Why is this so? Money velocity or its annual turnover rate slowed. It is when it takes off that the inflationary drive kicks in. This velocity is still declining. Are we now in a different era where inflation will now take off like a rocket? Or is this inflation just transitory? I believe Cathie Wood is right on point for this and that Jack Dorsey (Twitter's and Square's CEO) is off for his point on hyperinflation. QE will not trigger hyperinflation because of two reasons - low velocity of money and ultra-high debt levels. Right now, Fed is just lending mon
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$At some point, there will be meeting point between the PE ratios of Tesla and other automakers. Let’s be frank - we are in the transportation/mobility business, no matter how we look at it. And the reason people purchase the vehicle to fulfill that purpose in their lives remains. They look at a car, they want it to be able to take them from point A to B, and they have a certain price range. They want reliability, comfort, and have certain trade-offs in mind to be able to meet their budgets. Traditional automakerswill make EVs because the costs of doing so are much smaller than the ICEs, so from a business standpoint, that works perfectly for them to invest in the infrastructure and scaleup very quickly. Now, we read that Volkswage