张律事的个人主页 - 老虎社区

张律事

张律事

p清醒负有责任感的法律人，律师，漂亮的女律师！

IP属地：陕西

13关注

2粉丝

4主题

0勋章

12-20

这还处罚英伟达哩，脸皮厚的没法说呀！

美国商务部要求英伟达(NVDA)调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国

08-29

台积电会继续涨的

抱歉，原内容已删除

06-17

英伟达还要涨很多！

抱歉，原内容已删除

06-07

见光死

抱歉，原内容已删除

05-29

$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电为啥跌呢

05-28

这种股票值得长期持续持有吗？

Does Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

04-10

我坚定看好台积电！

台积电3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，同比增长34%

2023-12-21

A股强势下跌，别想好事了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-10-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉会涨回来的

2023-10-06

A股要大跌了！

李蓓：美元黄昏，人民币和中国股市有望迎来牛市

2023-10-03

我加仓了英伟达

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-09-05

$西方石油(OXY)$ 买入西方石油

2023-08-02

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 这股还没涨哩，今天应该大涨价啦！

2023-07-31

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 看涨，老虎证券刚启动！

2023-07-06

一块对付特斯拉！天德无畏！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-04-14

特斯拉真正的科技强企！

特斯拉“降价潮”蔓延全球，中国市场价格仍为最低

2023-04-06

今天加仓亚马逊它会涨的

2022-11-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 这篇文章非常好，转

2022-11-23

$路易斯安那太平洋(LPX)$ 我把路易斯安那太平洋放在自先人股池观察一下！

2022-11-15

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美国商务部要求英伟达(NVDA)调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492499101","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"金吾财讯 | 美国商务部据报近期要求英伟达调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国。英伟达(NVDA)已要求产品使用其AI芯片的超微电脑(SMCI)、戴尔科技(DELL)等公司，对东南亚客户实施抽查。英伟达称，坚持要求客户和合作伙伴，严格遵守所有出口管制限制。据悉，有超微电脑客户购入内嵌英伟达芯片的服务器后，复制序号、贴到其他服务器上，把英伟达芯片转卖给中国客户。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | 美国商务部据报近期要求<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国。</p><p>英伟达(NVDA)已要求产品使用其AI芯片的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>(SMCI)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>科技(DELL)等公司，对东南亚客户实施抽查。英伟达称，坚持要求客户和合作伙伴，严格遵守所有出口管制限制。据悉，有超微电脑客户购入内嵌英伟达芯片的服务器后，复制序号、贴到其他服务器上，把英伟达芯片转卖给中国客户。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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</p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-12-20 16:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | 美国商务部据报近期要求<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国。</p><p>英伟达(NVDA)已要求产品使用其AI芯片的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>(SMCI)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>科技(DELL)等公司，对东南亚客户实施抽查。英伟达称，坚持要求客户和合作伙伴，严格遵守所有出口管制限制。据悉，有超微电脑客户购入内嵌英伟达芯片的服务器后，复制序号、贴到其他服务器上，把英伟达芯片转卖给中国客户。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20210625/ZjE4MDdhNTRkYTVhY2QzODgyOWQwYzcxZDQ3NTA3Njg3NjgwMzk=.jpg","relate_stocks":{"LU1935043023.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME \"AA\" (USD) INC A","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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美国商务部据报近期要求英伟达调查过去1年旗下产品是如何流入中国。英伟达(NVDA)已要求产品使用其AI芯片的超微电脑(SMCI)、戴尔科技(DELL)等公司，对东南亚客户实施抽查。英伟达称，坚持要求客户和合作伙伴，严格遵守所有出口管制限制。据悉，有超微电脑客户购入内嵌英伟达芯片的服务器后，复制序号、贴到其他服务器上，把英伟达芯片转卖给中国客户。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":33,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":343655173505344,"gmtCreate":1724940564061,"gmtModify":1724940565891,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"台积电会继续涨的","listText":"台积电会继续涨的","text":"台积电会继续涨的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343655173505344","repostId":"2463025478","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317755840323896,"gmtCreate":1718616311199,"gmtModify":1718616313073,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达还要涨很多！","listText":"英伟达还要涨很多！","text":"英伟达还要涨很多！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317755840323896","repostId":"1102863921","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314271201644640,"gmtCreate":1717757689938,"gmtModify":1717757691861,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"见光死","listText":"见光死","text":"见光死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314271201644640","repostId":"1145467402","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311116708593936,"gmtCreate":1716976011416,"gmtModify":1716976012908,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>台积电为啥跌呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>台积电为啥跌呢","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电为啥跌呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311116708593936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310558524125192,"gmtCreate":1716847584059,"gmtModify":1716847586097,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这种股票值得长期持续持有吗？","listText":"这种股票值得长期持续持有吗？","text":"这种股票值得长期持续持有吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310558524125192","repostId":"2438383089","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2438383089","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1716807622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2438383089?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-27 19:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2438383089","media":"Simply Wall St.","summary":"The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Coca-Cola , which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it.As previously touched on, Coca-Cola is a growing business, which is encouraging. If that's not enough on its own, there is also the rather notable levels of insider ownership. These two factors are a huge highlight for the company which should be a strong contender your watchlists. It is worth noting th","content":"<html><body><p>The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in <em>One Up On Wall Street</em>, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up. </p>\n<p> In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> (NYSE:KO), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it. </p>\n<p><span> View our latest analysis for Coca-Cola </span></p>\n<h2> Coca-Cola's Earnings Per Share Are Growing </h2>\n<p> Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. Over the last three years, Coca-Cola has grown EPS by 14% per year. That growth rate is fairly good, assuming the company can keep it up. </p>\n<p> One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. EBIT margins for Coca-Cola remained fairly unchanged over the last year, however the company should be pleased to report its revenue growth for the period of 6.0% to US$46b. That's progress. </p>\n<p> In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart. </p>\n<figure>\n<img height=\"560\" src=\"https://s1.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/7_h_pCt5enQ0pvx8Oh40Cw--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/0c1135a885a4e617fcbd44faea136de7\" width=\"821\"/>\n<figcaption>\n  NYSE:KO Earnings and Revenue History May 27th 2024\n </figcaption>\n</figure>\n<p> Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Coca-Cola's <em>future</em> profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting. </p>\n<h2>Are Coca-Cola Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?</h2>\n<p> Owing to the size of Coca-Cola, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a significant proportion of the company. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$1.8b. We note that this amounts to 0.7% of the company, which may be small owing to the sheer size of Coca-Cola but it's still worth mentioning. So despite their percentage holding being low, company management still have plenty of reasons to deliver the best outcomes for investors. </p>\n<h2> Should You Add Coca-Cola To Your Watchlist? </h2>\n<p> As previously touched on, Coca-Cola is a growing business, which is encouraging. If that's not enough on its own, there is also the rather notable levels of insider ownership. These two factors are a huge highlight for the company which should be a strong contender your watchlists. It is worth noting though that we have found <strong>2 warning signs for Coca-Cola</strong> that you need to take into consideration. </p>\n<p> Although Coca-Cola certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing. </p>\n<p><em>Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.</em></p>\n<p><strong>Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?</strong> <strong>Get in touch</strong><strong> with us directly.</strong><i> Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.</i><br/><br/><i>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</i><br/><br/></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-27 19:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-coca-cola-nyse-ko-110022030.html><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-coca-cola-nyse-ko-110022030.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/y_f2eH1ap.eM12elC6MNyQ--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/428ff0392b741dffbf57fc52bfe38609","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014575.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USDHDG) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4177":"软饮料","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1670710588.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NYSE":"纽交所","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1670710661.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (SGD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","KO":"可口可乐","LU1670711123.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","SG9999014559.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD","LU2279689827.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income Sustainable A (mth) SGD-H","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","SG9999015358.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Dis SGD-H","SG9999015341.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD-H","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","SG9999003800.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Acc SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/does-coca-cola-nyse-ko-110022030.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2438383089","content_text":"The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up. \n In contrast to all that, many investors prefer to focus on companies like Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), which has not only revenues, but also profits. While profit isn't the sole metric that should be considered when investing, it's worth recognising businesses that can consistently produce it. \n View our latest analysis for Coca-Cola \n Coca-Cola's Earnings Per Share Are Growing \n Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. Therefore, there are plenty of investors who like to buy shares in companies that are growing EPS. Over the last three years, Coca-Cola has grown EPS by 14% per year. That growth rate is fairly good, assuming the company can keep it up. \n One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. EBIT margins for Coca-Cola remained fairly unchanged over the last year, however the company should be pleased to report its revenue growth for the period of 6.0% to US$46b. That's progress. \n In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart. \n\n\n\n  NYSE:KO Earnings and Revenue History May 27th 2024\n \n\n Fortunately, we've got access to analyst forecasts of Coca-Cola's future profits. You can do your own forecasts without looking, or you can take a peek at what the professionals are predicting. \nAre Coca-Cola Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?\n Owing to the size of Coca-Cola, we wouldn't expect insiders to hold a significant proportion of the company. But thanks to their investment in the company, it's pleasing to see that there are still incentives to align their actions with the shareholders. Indeed, they have a considerable amount of wealth invested in it, currently valued at US$1.8b. We note that this amounts to 0.7% of the company, which may be small owing to the sheer size of Coca-Cola but it's still worth mentioning. So despite their percentage holding being low, company management still have plenty of reasons to deliver the best outcomes for investors. \n Should You Add Coca-Cola To Your Watchlist? \n As previously touched on, Coca-Cola is a growing business, which is encouraging. If that's not enough on its own, there is also the rather notable levels of insider ownership. These two factors are a huge highlight for the company which should be a strong contender your watchlists. It is worth noting though that we have found 2 warning signs for Coca-Cola that you need to take into consideration. \n Although Coca-Cola certainly looks good, it may appeal to more investors if insiders were buying up shares. If you like to see companies with more skin in the game, then check out this handpicked selection of companies that not only boast of strong growth but have strong insider backing. \nPlease note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.\nHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293808321106160,"gmtCreate":1712761124494,"gmtModify":1712761126282,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我坚定看好台积电！","listText":"我坚定看好台积电！","text":"我坚定看好台积电！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293808321106160","repostId":"1104315004","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104315004","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1712727122,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104315004?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-10 13:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，同比增长34%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104315004","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月10日，$台积电(TSM)$3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，同比增长34%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，环比增长7.5%，同比增长34.3%；2024年1月至3月销售额总计5926.4亿元台币，同比增长16.5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec8c1bc5df8932ea79d1e3fe63b3e8d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，同比增长34%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，同比增长34%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-04-10 13:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月10日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，环比增长7.5%，同比增长34.3%；2024年1月至3月销售额总计5926.4亿元台币，同比增长16.5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec8c1bc5df8932ea79d1e3fe63b3e8d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1060\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON 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ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104315004","content_text":"4月10日，台积电3月销售额1952.1亿元台币，环比增长7.5%，同比增长34.3%；2024年1月至3月销售额总计5926.4亿元台币，同比增长16.5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":254170984853664,"gmtCreate":1703089896181,"gmtModify":1703089907630,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A股强势下跌，别想好事了！","listText":"A股强势下跌，别想好事了！","text":"A股强势下跌，别想好事了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/254170984853664","repostId":"1175041081","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":232173799206944,"gmtCreate":1697719243869,"gmtModify":1697719245374,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>特斯拉会涨回来的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>特斯拉会涨回来的","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉会涨回来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/232173799206944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":227387551207608,"gmtCreate":1696522635797,"gmtModify":1696522637325,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A股要大跌了！","listText":"A股要大跌了！","text":"A股要大跌了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227387551207608","repostId":"1115854198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115854198","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1696518828,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115854198?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-05 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李蓓：美元黄昏，人民币和中国股市有望迎来牛市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115854198","media":"半夏投资","summary":"美元或进入持续贬值的若干年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：半夏投资 李蓓</p><p>中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其实今年还有一件百年一遇的大事，美联储上半年亏损超过500亿美元，预计全年亏损超过1000亿美元，是近100年的第一次亏损。以至于美联储已经宣布计划大幅裁员300人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这三件事情，表面上看起来没有关系，但实际上都是一根藤上结出的瓜。这根藤就是疫情后美国的超强财政刺激，而这根藤生长的土壤，就是自2008年之后的10多年，过度宽松的货币政策，低利率叠加先锋试验性质的量化宽松手段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008年金融危机后，美国开展了史无前例的强货币刺激。疫情后，又开展了史无前例的强财政刺激。在一些思路更加传统的反对者看来，这些政策毫无节操和底线。即便我们抛却情感色彩和价值取向，单从技术层面评估这些政策，它们也是具有相当的先锋和试验性质的，在历史上并无先例，这也意味着，它们的后果也是没有先例可以参考的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些先锋试验性的政策的藤上，陆续结出很多的果实。早期，多是甜瓜。经济增长，居民收入高增，充分就业，企业盈利扩张，股市上涨，美元强势。而随着时间推移，越到后来，越来越多结出了苦果。包括高通胀，下降的购买力，扩大的贸易逆差，大片倒闭的小银行，大幅亏损的美联储，割裂的政坛，无以为继的经济增长动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">或许，印证了那条朴素的道理，天底下没有免费的午餐，所有看似上天馈赠的礼物，都是有代价的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我看来，当前美债利率和美元的强势，都是强弩之末，如同日落前的黄昏，最后的绚烂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为美国的强财政刺激已经透支太多，难以为继，即便明年预算赤字维持目前计划的6.8%高位，因为利息支出占比大幅提升，甚至占据大部分的的赤字空间，<strong>美国明年也将转向实质上的财政收缩，经济大概率会发生超市场预期的衰退，美债利率也将显著下行，美元也将进入一段可能持续若干年的贬值周期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我本来以为拐点会发生在明年的大选后。因为上一段跟现在类似（但远没有现在过分）的历史，正是大选铸就了拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那是80年里根政府上台之后，同样的财政扩张叠加货币收缩，同样的贸易逆差扩大同时美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长换人，经济政策发生重大转变，削减赤字+货币宽松，同时进行了国际协调以更好的服务美国的政策目标。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮。从85年初的高点算起，<strong>仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。上一轮美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市迎来牛市。</p><h2 id=\"id_3711866205\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1，美元强势的背后</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初，市场的一致预期是美国衰退，利率下行。而到现在，事实是美国经济韧性远超市场预期，美债利率创出新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至今年1季度末，经济的强势和韧性，还是来自私人部门内生的力量。无论工商业贷款，还是居民贷款，都依然维持10%左右的高增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加息抑制经济增长，是需要有传导路径的。首先要抑制信贷增速，信贷增速下行传导到总需求下行，然后经济放缓。所以3月硅谷银行出事，很多人认为美国经济会快速崩塌的时候，我是持反面看法的。因为即便小银行出事，企业和居民信贷依然维持10%左右的增速，说明小银行的集团困难，甚至都并没有妨碍信贷增速，所以短期经济并不会有什么大问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b3ab6654651001fcf53013a9a9eab68\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但半年多过去了，到现在情况已经大不相同，工商业贷款增速已经下滑到0增速，居民贷款增速大幅下滑到5%左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的很多其它指标，也出现了拐头向下的趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的成屋销售（占美国地产销售80%以上），再度下滑创新低。位于20年最低水平附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb19a6066c586a9dfb515395e6daec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的居民信心和预期，最近2个月拐头向下。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050a7b346b9e38af91cb14f68009f2d0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去2个季度，维持美国经济韧性的，最大的向上力量，是美国的财政。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12个月滚动的财政赤字/GDP，从去年3季度的不到5%，到今年7月一度上升到超过8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f857980e5805f8a0ade59d64ef236ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8%GDP的财政赤字是什么概念呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国际上公认的财政赤字红线，是3%。从更长的周期来看历史比较，80年代初里根政府搞星球大战计划，财政大扩张的时候，仅上升到5%，2008年百年一遇的金融危机，也就10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮疫情，美国政府超强财政刺激，赤字率超过08年金融危机，达到了历史上从未有过的15%。在未知的疫情面前，下猛药，有一定的合理性，在当时极低利率的环境下，高赤字的成本也并不可怕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但现在疫情已经过去，通胀依然高企，经济需要降温，利率已经大幅上升，赤字的成本大幅上升，副作用也大幅上升，好处又大幅下降，但拜登政府形成了对财政刺激的药物依赖，不愿意降药量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种非常显然且过度的寅吃卯粮的透支行为，在美国国内也是有很多反对的声音的。比如刚被罢免的麦卡锡，上任之初的主张之一，便是要督促政府削减开支。而现在其违背了当初的承诺，与拜登政府达成妥协，就遭遇了共和党内其它强硬派的反对，发起动议，投票罢免而且成功。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8388038be06835fd6d9c14785b9b2da\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就算拜登政府毫无纪律的预算方案，政府内部没有反对的声音的力量。后续美国政府维持当前的财政预算，<strong>美国的财政赤字也已经见顶。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为美国政府通过的2023年度财政赤字预算是6%GDP，2024年是6.8%GDP，而截至2023年7月的12个月滚动赤字，已经达到了8.5%GDP。所以，后续12个月滚动的财政赤字，将会从8.5%下降到6.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上8月的数字已经开始环比下滑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ea8fde466b76cb93746c5efc1b9e12\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的是，名义上的财政赤字，并不能衡量财政对实体经济的真实推动力度，需要扣除存量国债的利息支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">80年代，美国之所以能够承受10%以上的国债利率，依然搞星球大战计划搞财政扩张，因为当时美国政府杠杆率位于历史最低水平，仅不到40%。而疫情后，美国政府杠杆创新高达到了历史最高水平120%，是当时的3倍。也就意味着，利率仅仅需要是当时的1/3水平，偿债负担就等同当年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87ede1942468bb021cf85b8225b6fb23\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，因为利率仍在上升过程中，平均水平并不高，且期限大于1年的存量国债暂时仍只需支付低利率。美国的利息支出已经上升到3.5%GDP，随着时间推移，存量国债到期，新发国债需要支付当前市场水平的利率，估计只需要1年多以后，美国国债的利息支出/GDP，将会突破5%，超过80年代的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就意味着，即便明年美国财政赤字依然维持6.8%，大部分将被用来还利息，用于支持实体经济的赤字将大幅下降。<strong>也就说是，从支持实体经济的角度，明年美国实体经济将遭遇大幅的财政紧缩。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eea27c9b72b63b19e69b1b4d3b7905c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>信贷已经失速，后续财政还将实质紧缩。美国经济衰退的迹象已现，后续确认进入衰退的确定性是很高的。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_860609799\" style=\"text-align: start;\">2. 为什么美债利率还在创新高？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为供需关系大逆转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>供应端：</strong>上半年美国赤字水平本身不高，还以消耗财政部账户存量余额为主，发债量并不大，为过去几年的偏低水平，下半年发债量环比上半年大幅上升，创下除2020年2季度之外的单季度最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/928fbcef82b3cedc83629f262e8bc29c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>需求端：</strong>因为硅谷银行等的小银行风暴，美联储上半年一度暂停缩表，重新大幅扩表，整个上半年美联储资产负债表基本持平。而随着银行业风暴过去，美联储开始重新快速缩表。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02d27d0d8836d84fb382d51958f1721\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，以年中为分界，美国国债的供需关系大逆转。海量的发行+美联储的抛售，推升利率大幅上升并创出今年新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率上升，只是因为供需关系，并不是因为下半年美国经济的前景变得更好了。</p><h2 id=\"id_3618973810\" style=\"text-align: start;\">3.美联储的大麻烦</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">故事的另一位主角，美联储，现在也面临大麻烦。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前面讲过，美联储从2008年金融危机之后，开启了试验性质的量化宽松，其资产负债表扩张了近10倍。从1万亿美元，到接近10万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">占GDP的比例，也扩张了6倍，从6%左右，上升到最高36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c73c5c6d0506531bda37196d6d728d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"686\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于美联储来说，其负债主要挂钩短端利率，比如基准利率 联邦基金利率，而其资产主要挂钩长端利率，比如国债利率，MBS利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在利率曲线正常的环境下，持续QE扩表这种做法，不仅推升经济，促进就业，推升资产价格，提升美国居民财富水平，美联储自己甚至还可以赚大钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如长短端利差正挂水平较大，且资产负债表绝对规模位于历史最高位附近的2021年，美联储盈利超过1000亿美元。相比其近10万亿的资产规模，对应1%出头的正息差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>真是像黑魔法一样神奇！！</strong>！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是通胀终于一骑绝尘，美联储被迫大幅加息，利率曲线今年进入大幅倒挂。同样的道理相反的方向，美联储开始血亏。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年上半年，亏损超过500亿，全年预计亏损超过1000亿美元。对应1%出头的负息差。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1329963c133c5e05e6a29c571e5bfd06\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"795\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更加有趣的是：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储的盈利，都是归美国财政的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当年财政强刺激的背景下，美联储的利润，为财政支出也是更添了一把火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么道理上，美联储的亏损，也是应该由财政负担的。在现在往后美国将要面临的实质性财政紧缩中，美联储的亏损，还要再分掉一部分财政支出，釜底再抽一把薪。</p><p><strong>原来，黑魔法是回旋镖。最后砸到的竟然是自己！</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1493469051\">4.出路在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前文曾经提到过，上一段跟现在类似的历史，是80年里根总统任期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在里根任期的前4年：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">跟现在同样的财政扩张；叠加当时美联储主席沃克尔的强力货币收缩，跟现在一样的信贷下行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">跟现在同样的贸易逆差扩大，经济走弱，企业盈利下滑的同时，美债利率上升，美元强势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54e76e09febec71228aa75111eab40c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"744\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长和总统顾问人选发生了改变，政策策思路达成了共识，发生了重大变化。新的政策方向：一方面削减财政赤字，一方面放松货币。同时进行了国际协调，鼓励主要贸易伙伴（日本德国等）实施反方向的政策：加强财政刺激同时维持基准利率不变，以更好的服务美国的政策目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一政策思路取得了预期的效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">84年年中，美债利率开始趋势下行，美国经济走出了困境，失业率下降，企业盈利回升，股市阶段性下跌后，转为上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，美元的强势一去不复返。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮，美元持续大幅下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从85年初的高点算起，</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后低位继续震荡了近10年，直到1995年才开始下一轮上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>站在现在，出路也是类似的：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国财政将面临实质性收缩，美国经济将出现较深的衰退，美债利率将会大幅下行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国债的利息负担，将跟80年代相当。但美联储的超大资产负债表，面临大幅亏损的情况，是历史上从来没有过的。所以，尤其在当前美联储的困境下，大幅降息的必要性是更大的。只有大幅降息，让利率曲线回归常态的近地远高，才能逆转美联储大幅亏损的土壤。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>本轮美元也将持续贬值，或许会持续若干年。</strong>直到美国经济的下一次大周期回升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我本来以为拐点也类似上一轮，发生在大选之后。但昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本文花费了我几乎一天的时间，今天就写到这里先休息了，作为上篇。主要讨论美国当前面临的经济困境和后续大概率的政策和经济走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">后面2天，会择机完成本文的下篇，讨论为什么上一轮美元见大顶之后，日元和日本股市进入牛市，以及为什么本轮会是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610944563427","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓：美元黄昏，人民币和中国股市有望迎来牛市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-05 23:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A><strong>半夏投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：半夏投资 李蓓中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。其实今年还有一件百年一遇的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115854198","content_text":"作者：半夏投资 李蓓中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。其实今年还有一件百年一遇的大事，美联储上半年亏损超过500亿美元，预计全年亏损超过1000亿美元，是近100年的第一次亏损。以至于美联储已经宣布计划大幅裁员300人。这三件事情，表面上看起来没有关系，但实际上都是一根藤上结出的瓜。这根藤就是疫情后美国的超强财政刺激，而这根藤生长的土壤，就是自2008年之后的10多年，过度宽松的货币政策，低利率叠加先锋试验性质的量化宽松手段。2008年金融危机后，美国开展了史无前例的强货币刺激。疫情后，又开展了史无前例的强财政刺激。在一些思路更加传统的反对者看来，这些政策毫无节操和底线。即便我们抛却情感色彩和价值取向，单从技术层面评估这些政策，它们也是具有相当的先锋和试验性质的，在历史上并无先例，这也意味着，它们的后果也是没有先例可以参考的。这些先锋试验性的政策的藤上，陆续结出很多的果实。早期，多是甜瓜。经济增长，居民收入高增，充分就业，企业盈利扩张，股市上涨，美元强势。而随着时间推移，越到后来，越来越多结出了苦果。包括高通胀，下降的购买力，扩大的贸易逆差，大片倒闭的小银行，大幅亏损的美联储，割裂的政坛，无以为继的经济增长动力。或许，印证了那条朴素的道理，天底下没有免费的午餐，所有看似上天馈赠的礼物，都是有代价的。在我看来，当前美债利率和美元的强势，都是强弩之末，如同日落前的黄昏，最后的绚烂。因为美国的强财政刺激已经透支太多，难以为继，即便明年预算赤字维持目前计划的6.8%高位，因为利息支出占比大幅提升，甚至占据大部分的的赤字空间，美国明年也将转向实质上的财政收缩，经济大概率会发生超市场预期的衰退，美债利率也将显著下行，美元也将进入一段可能持续若干年的贬值周期。我本来以为拐点会发生在明年的大选后。因为上一段跟现在类似（但远没有现在过分）的历史，正是大选铸就了拐点。那是80年里根政府上台之后，同样的财政扩张叠加货币收缩，同样的贸易逆差扩大同时美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长换人，经济政策发生重大转变，削减赤字+货币宽松，同时进行了国际协调以更好的服务美国的政策目标。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮。从85年初的高点算起，仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。上一轮美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市迎来牛市。1，美元强势的背后年初，市场的一致预期是美国衰退，利率下行。而到现在，事实是美国经济韧性远超市场预期，美债利率创出新高。截至今年1季度末，经济的强势和韧性，还是来自私人部门内生的力量。无论工商业贷款，还是居民贷款，都依然维持10%左右的高增速。加息抑制经济增长，是需要有传导路径的。首先要抑制信贷增速，信贷增速下行传导到总需求下行，然后经济放缓。所以3月硅谷银行出事，很多人认为美国经济会快速崩塌的时候，我是持反面看法的。因为即便小银行出事，企业和居民信贷依然维持10%左右的增速，说明小银行的集团困难，甚至都并没有妨碍信贷增速，所以短期经济并不会有什么大问题。但半年多过去了，到现在情况已经大不相同，工商业贷款增速已经下滑到0增速，居民贷款增速大幅下滑到5%左右。美国的很多其它指标，也出现了拐头向下的趋势。美国的成屋销售（占美国地产销售80%以上），再度下滑创新低。位于20年最低水平附近。美国的居民信心和预期，最近2个月拐头向下。过去2个季度，维持美国经济韧性的，最大的向上力量，是美国的财政。12个月滚动的财政赤字/GDP，从去年3季度的不到5%，到今年7月一度上升到超过8%。8%GDP的财政赤字是什么概念呢？国际上公认的财政赤字红线，是3%。从更长的周期来看历史比较，80年代初里根政府搞星球大战计划，财政大扩张的时候，仅上升到5%，2008年百年一遇的金融危机，也就10%。本轮疫情，美国政府超强财政刺激，赤字率超过08年金融危机，达到了历史上从未有过的15%。在未知的疫情面前，下猛药，有一定的合理性，在当时极低利率的环境下，高赤字的成本也并不可怕。但现在疫情已经过去，通胀依然高企，经济需要降温，利率已经大幅上升，赤字的成本大幅上升，副作用也大幅上升，好处又大幅下降，但拜登政府形成了对财政刺激的药物依赖，不愿意降药量。这种非常显然且过度的寅吃卯粮的透支行为，在美国国内也是有很多反对的声音的。比如刚被罢免的麦卡锡，上任之初的主张之一，便是要督促政府削减开支。而现在其违背了当初的承诺，与拜登政府达成妥协，就遭遇了共和党内其它强硬派的反对，发起动议，投票罢免而且成功。就算拜登政府毫无纪律的预算方案，政府内部没有反对的声音的力量。后续美国政府维持当前的财政预算，美国的财政赤字也已经见顶。因为美国政府通过的2023年度财政赤字预算是6%GDP，2024年是6.8%GDP，而截至2023年7月的12个月滚动赤字，已经达到了8.5%GDP。所以，后续12个月滚动的财政赤字，将会从8.5%下降到6.8%。事实上8月的数字已经开始环比下滑。更重要的是，名义上的财政赤字，并不能衡量财政对实体经济的真实推动力度，需要扣除存量国债的利息支出。80年代，美国之所以能够承受10%以上的国债利率，依然搞星球大战计划搞财政扩张，因为当时美国政府杠杆率位于历史最低水平，仅不到40%。而疫情后，美国政府杠杆创新高达到了历史最高水平120%，是当时的3倍。也就意味着，利率仅仅需要是当时的1/3水平，偿债负担就等同当年。过去一年，因为利率仍在上升过程中，平均水平并不高，且期限大于1年的存量国债暂时仍只需支付低利率。美国的利息支出已经上升到3.5%GDP，随着时间推移，存量国债到期，新发国债需要支付当前市场水平的利率，估计只需要1年多以后，美国国债的利息支出/GDP，将会突破5%，超过80年代的最高水平。这就意味着，即便明年美国财政赤字依然维持6.8%，大部分将被用来还利息，用于支持实体经济的赤字将大幅下降。也就说是，从支持实体经济的角度，明年美国实体经济将遭遇大幅的财政紧缩。信贷已经失速，后续财政还将实质紧缩。美国经济衰退的迹象已现，后续确认进入衰退的确定性是很高的。2. 为什么美债利率还在创新高？因为供需关系大逆转。供应端：上半年美国赤字水平本身不高，还以消耗财政部账户存量余额为主，发债量并不大，为过去几年的偏低水平，下半年发债量环比上半年大幅上升，创下除2020年2季度之外的单季度最高水平。需求端：因为硅谷银行等的小银行风暴，美联储上半年一度暂停缩表，重新大幅扩表，整个上半年美联储资产负债表基本持平。而随着银行业风暴过去，美联储开始重新快速缩表。所以，以年中为分界，美国国债的供需关系大逆转。海量的发行+美联储的抛售，推升利率大幅上升并创出今年新高。利率上升，只是因为供需关系，并不是因为下半年美国经济的前景变得更好了。3.美联储的大麻烦故事的另一位主角，美联储，现在也面临大麻烦。前面讲过，美联储从2008年金融危机之后，开启了试验性质的量化宽松，其资产负债表扩张了近10倍。从1万亿美元，到接近10万亿美元。占GDP的比例，也扩张了6倍，从6%左右，上升到最高36%。对于美联储来说，其负债主要挂钩短端利率，比如基准利率 联邦基金利率，而其资产主要挂钩长端利率，比如国债利率，MBS利率。在利率曲线正常的环境下，持续QE扩表这种做法，不仅推升经济，促进就业，推升资产价格，提升美国居民财富水平，美联储自己甚至还可以赚大钱。比如长短端利差正挂水平较大，且资产负债表绝对规模位于历史最高位附近的2021年，美联储盈利超过1000亿美元。相比其近10万亿的资产规模，对应1%出头的正息差。真是像黑魔法一样神奇！！！但是通胀终于一骑绝尘，美联储被迫大幅加息，利率曲线今年进入大幅倒挂。同样的道理相反的方向，美联储开始血亏。今年上半年，亏损超过500亿，全年预计亏损超过1000亿美元。对应1%出头的负息差。更加有趣的是：美联储的盈利，都是归美国财政的。当年财政强刺激的背景下，美联储的利润，为财政支出也是更添了一把火。那么道理上，美联储的亏损，也是应该由财政负担的。在现在往后美国将要面临的实质性财政紧缩中，美联储的亏损，还要再分掉一部分财政支出，釜底再抽一把薪。原来，黑魔法是回旋镖。最后砸到的竟然是自己！4.出路在哪里前文曾经提到过，上一段跟现在类似的历史，是80年里根总统任期。在里根任期的前4年：跟现在同样的财政扩张；叠加当时美联储主席沃克尔的强力货币收缩，跟现在一样的信贷下行。跟现在同样的贸易逆差扩大，经济走弱，企业盈利下滑的同时，美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长和总统顾问人选发生了改变，政策策思路达成了共识，发生了重大变化。新的政策方向：一方面削减财政赤字，一方面放松货币。同时进行了国际协调，鼓励主要贸易伙伴（日本德国等）实施反方向的政策：加强财政刺激同时维持基准利率不变，以更好的服务美国的政策目标。这一政策思路取得了预期的效果。84年年中，美债利率开始趋势下行，美国经济走出了困境，失业率下降，企业盈利回升，股市阶段性下跌后，转为上涨。然而，美元的强势一去不复返。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮，美元持续大幅下跌。从85年初的高点算起，仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。然后低位继续震荡了近10年，直到1995年才开始下一轮上升。站在现在，出路也是类似的：美国财政将面临实质性收缩，美国经济将出现较深的衰退，美债利率将会大幅下行。美国国债的利息负担，将跟80年代相当。但美联储的超大资产负债表，面临大幅亏损的情况，是历史上从来没有过的。所以，尤其在当前美联储的困境下，大幅降息的必要性是更大的。只有大幅降息，让利率曲线回归常态的近地远高，才能逆转美联储大幅亏损的土壤。本轮美元也将持续贬值，或许会持续若干年。直到美国经济的下一次大周期回升。我本来以为拐点也类似上一轮，发生在大选之后。但昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。本文花费了我几乎一天的时间，今天就写到这里先休息了，作为上篇。主要讨论美国当前面临的经济困境和后续大概率的政策和经济走向。后面2天，会择机完成本文的下篇，讨论为什么上一轮美元见大顶之后，日元和日本股市进入牛市，以及为什么本轮会是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":226553604034744,"gmtCreate":1696319035412,"gmtModify":1696319036877,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我加仓了英伟达","listText":"我加仓了英伟达","text":"我加仓了英伟达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/226553604034744","repostId":"1170359199","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464817662142392","authorId":"3464817662142392","name":"antonyye","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3464817662142392","authorIdStr":"3464817662142392"},"content":"早了点，还在下行到中…。","text":"早了点，还在下行到中…。","html":"早了点，还在下行到中…。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":216636300357824,"gmtCreate":1693923083463,"gmtModify":1693923084724,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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15:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉“降价潮”蔓延全球，中国市场价格仍为最低","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2327129741","media":"蓝鲸财经","summary":"近日，特斯拉香港宣布，将于4月15日调整 Model 3 和Model Y的“一换一”价格。特斯拉海外市场的价格也在持续下降。这已经是今年以来特斯拉第三次降价。2023年一季度，特斯拉在全球累计生产电动车约44.08万辆，同比增长44.3%；累计交付新车约42.29万辆，同比增长36%，打破了特斯拉单季度的交付纪录。","content":"<html><body><article><p>近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>香港宣布，将于4月15日调整 Model 3 和Model Y的“一换一”价格。调整幅度最多达14%。其中，价格调整减幅最大的是Model 3 高性能版，降幅达14.7%；Model 3长续航版降幅为11.06%。Model Y长续航版及高性能版分别将降价8.7%及9.03%。</p><p>据悉，只有Model 3和Model Y后驱版本售价保持不变，“一换一”售价分别为34.1200万港元和36.7100万港元起。</p><p>另外关于“一换一”政策，可以简单理解为国内的“旧车置换补贴”，对旧车进行“报废”等措施，可以享受上限为28.75万港币的税额见面。</p><p>特斯拉海外市场的价格也在持续下降。近日，特斯拉美国官网全系产品再次宣布降价，Model 3降价1000美元，约人民币6882元；Model Y降价2000美元，约人民币1.37万元；Model S/X均降价5000美元，约人民币3.44万元。这已经是今年以来特斯拉第三次降价。</p><p>据特斯拉丹麦官网信息显示，特斯拉Model 3高性能版目前的售价为426990克朗，下调9.1%，Model Y高性能版目前的售价为456496克朗，下调9.2%；今年2月特斯拉Model 3标准续航版和长续航版在丹麦宣布降价7%-8%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20230414152014566v1545inqid0n0i6\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20230414152016803v154twqejwaczog\"/><p>图片来源：特斯拉官方</p><p>截至目前，特斯拉在中国地区的售价仍为全球最低。Model 3后驱版起售价22.99万元，远低于约合人民币27.71万元，排在第二位的日本售价。Model Y后驱版国内起售价26.19万元，而在日本的起售价约合人民币30.11万元。</p><p>特斯拉能够持续降价，其主要原因与极致的控制成本可分，目前位于美国德州和德国的两家新工厂加大产能，这可以分摊更多的固定成本。同时考虑到近期原材料价格持续下跌，叠加特斯拉还将在上海新建一家超级工厂，专门生产该公司的超大型储能商用电池Megapack，无论外在或内在因素，特斯拉降价的底气一直在不断增加。</p><p>2023年一季度，特斯拉在全球累计生产电动车约44.08万辆，同比增长44.3%；累计交付新车约42.29万辆，同比增长36%，打破了特斯拉单季度的交付纪录。</p><p>作为最会赚钱的车企，特斯拉2022年实现营收814.62亿美元，同比增长51.4%；对应的<span>净利润</span>约为125.83亿美元，同比增长50.58%。在中国市场实现营收181.45亿美元，同比增长31.1%。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉“降价潮”蔓延全球，中国市场价格仍为最低</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉“降价潮”蔓延全球，中国市场价格仍为最低\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-14 15:17 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202304141520188425739d&s=b><strong>蓝鲸财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，特斯拉香港宣布，将于4月15日调整 Model 3 和Model Y的“一换一”价格。调整幅度最多达14%。其中，价格调整减幅最大的是Model 3 高性能版，降幅达14.7%；Model 3长续航版降幅为11.06%。Model Y长续航版及高性能版分别将降价8.7%及9.03%。据悉，只有Model 3和Model Y后驱版本售价保持不变，“一换一”售价分别为34.1200万港元和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202304141520188425739d&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS 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00:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"海外市场释放信号：挂钩中国股票ETF的期权显示出多头增强","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175041081","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场情绪逐渐转暖。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据中国基金报报道，海外期权市场释放信号：挂钩中国股票ETF的期权显示出多头增强，空头转弱的信号。例如，来自海外交易网站MarketChameleon的信息显示，挂钩海外上市的中国股票ETF—FXI期权近期释放信号——看跌期权未平仓合约数量降至一年内低位。</p><p>业内人士解释道，这表明空头或逐步平仓离场。与此同时，FXI看跌和看涨期权比率(Put/CallRatio)下降至0.4，显示市场情绪逐渐转暖，FXI多空对决中，多头的力量增强。</p><p>部分挂钩其它中国股票ETF的期权显示了类似信号。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603eec59a6c2a15cf44c7e3cb7f1b0d8\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n海外市场释放信号：挂钩中国股票ETF的期权显示出多头增强\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-21 00:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2598022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据中国基金报报道，海外期权市场释放信号：挂钩中国股票ETF的期权显示出多头增强，空头转弱的信号。例如，来自海外交易网站MarketChameleon的信息显示，挂钩海外上市的中国股票ETF—FXI期权近期释放信号——看跌期权未平仓合约数量降至一年内低位。业内人士解释道，这表明空头或逐步平仓离场。与此同时，FXI看跌和看涨期权比率(Put/CallRatio)下降至0.4，显示市场情绪逐渐转暖，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2598022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{"FXI":"中国大盘股ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2598022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1175041081","content_text":"据中国基金报报道，海外期权市场释放信号：挂钩中国股票ETF的期权显示出多头增强，空头转弱的信号。例如，来自海外交易网站MarketChameleon的信息显示，挂钩海外上市的中国股票ETF—FXI期权近期释放信号——看跌期权未平仓合约数量降至一年内低位。业内人士解释道，这表明空头或逐步平仓离场。与此同时，FXI看跌和看涨期权比率(Put/CallRatio)下降至0.4，显示市场情绪逐渐转暖，FXI多空对决中，多头的力量增强。部分挂钩其它中国股票ETF的期权显示了类似信号。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":232173799206944,"gmtCreate":1697719243869,"gmtModify":1697719245374,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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特斯拉会涨回来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/232173799206944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":227387551207608,"gmtCreate":1696522635797,"gmtModify":1696522637325,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A股要大跌了！","listText":"A股要大跌了！","text":"A股要大跌了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227387551207608","repostId":"1115854198","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115854198","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1696518828,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115854198?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-05 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李蓓：美元黄昏，人民币和中国股市有望迎来牛市","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115854198","media":"半夏投资","summary":"美元或进入持续贬值的若干年。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：半夏投资 李蓓</p><p>中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其实今年还有一件百年一遇的大事，美联储上半年亏损超过500亿美元，预计全年亏损超过1000亿美元，是近100年的第一次亏损。以至于美联储已经宣布计划大幅裁员300人。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这三件事情，表面上看起来没有关系，但实际上都是一根藤上结出的瓜。这根藤就是疫情后美国的超强财政刺激，而这根藤生长的土壤，就是自2008年之后的10多年，过度宽松的货币政策，低利率叠加先锋试验性质的量化宽松手段。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2008年金融危机后，美国开展了史无前例的强货币刺激。疫情后，又开展了史无前例的强财政刺激。在一些思路更加传统的反对者看来，这些政策毫无节操和底线。即便我们抛却情感色彩和价值取向，单从技术层面评估这些政策，它们也是具有相当的先锋和试验性质的，在历史上并无先例，这也意味着，它们的后果也是没有先例可以参考的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这些先锋试验性的政策的藤上，陆续结出很多的果实。早期，多是甜瓜。经济增长，居民收入高增，充分就业，企业盈利扩张，股市上涨，美元强势。而随着时间推移，越到后来，越来越多结出了苦果。包括高通胀，下降的购买力，扩大的贸易逆差，大片倒闭的小银行，大幅亏损的美联储，割裂的政坛，无以为继的经济增长动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">或许，印证了那条朴素的道理，天底下没有免费的午餐，所有看似上天馈赠的礼物，都是有代价的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在我看来，当前美债利率和美元的强势，都是强弩之末，如同日落前的黄昏，最后的绚烂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为美国的强财政刺激已经透支太多，难以为继，即便明年预算赤字维持目前计划的6.8%高位，因为利息支出占比大幅提升，甚至占据大部分的的赤字空间，<strong>美国明年也将转向实质上的财政收缩，经济大概率会发生超市场预期的衰退，美债利率也将显著下行，美元也将进入一段可能持续若干年的贬值周期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我本来以为拐点会发生在明年的大选后。因为上一段跟现在类似（但远没有现在过分）的历史，正是大选铸就了拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那是80年里根政府上台之后，同样的财政扩张叠加货币收缩，同样的贸易逆差扩大同时美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长换人，经济政策发生重大转变，削减赤字+货币宽松，同时进行了国际协调以更好的服务美国的政策目标。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮。从85年初的高点算起，<strong>仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。上一轮美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市迎来牛市。</p><h2 id=\"id_3711866205\" style=\"text-align: start;\">1，美元强势的背后</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">年初，市场的一致预期是美国衰退，利率下行。而到现在，事实是美国经济韧性远超市场预期，美债利率创出新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至今年1季度末，经济的强势和韧性，还是来自私人部门内生的力量。无论工商业贷款，还是居民贷款，都依然维持10%左右的高增速。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加息抑制经济增长，是需要有传导路径的。首先要抑制信贷增速，信贷增速下行传导到总需求下行，然后经济放缓。所以3月硅谷银行出事，很多人认为美国经济会快速崩塌的时候，我是持反面看法的。因为即便小银行出事，企业和居民信贷依然维持10%左右的增速，说明小银行的集团困难，甚至都并没有妨碍信贷增速，所以短期经济并不会有什么大问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b3ab6654651001fcf53013a9a9eab68\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但半年多过去了，到现在情况已经大不相同，工商业贷款增速已经下滑到0增速，居民贷款增速大幅下滑到5%左右。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的很多其它指标，也出现了拐头向下的趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的成屋销售（占美国地产销售80%以上），再度下滑创新低。位于20年最低水平附近。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb19a6066c586a9dfb515395e6daec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的居民信心和预期，最近2个月拐头向下。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050a7b346b9e38af91cb14f68009f2d0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去2个季度，维持美国经济韧性的，最大的向上力量，是美国的财政。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">12个月滚动的财政赤字/GDP，从去年3季度的不到5%，到今年7月一度上升到超过8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f857980e5805f8a0ade59d64ef236ab\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">8%GDP的财政赤字是什么概念呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国际上公认的财政赤字红线，是3%。从更长的周期来看历史比较，80年代初里根政府搞星球大战计划，财政大扩张的时候，仅上升到5%，2008年百年一遇的金融危机，也就10%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本轮疫情，美国政府超强财政刺激，赤字率超过08年金融危机，达到了历史上从未有过的15%。在未知的疫情面前，下猛药，有一定的合理性，在当时极低利率的环境下，高赤字的成本也并不可怕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但现在疫情已经过去，通胀依然高企，经济需要降温，利率已经大幅上升，赤字的成本大幅上升，副作用也大幅上升，好处又大幅下降，但拜登政府形成了对财政刺激的药物依赖，不愿意降药量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种非常显然且过度的寅吃卯粮的透支行为，在美国国内也是有很多反对的声音的。比如刚被罢免的麦卡锡，上任之初的主张之一，便是要督促政府削减开支。而现在其违背了当初的承诺，与拜登政府达成妥协，就遭遇了共和党内其它强硬派的反对，发起动议，投票罢免而且成功。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8388038be06835fd6d9c14785b9b2da\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就算拜登政府毫无纪律的预算方案，政府内部没有反对的声音的力量。后续美国政府维持当前的财政预算，<strong>美国的财政赤字也已经见顶。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为美国政府通过的2023年度财政赤字预算是6%GDP，2024年是6.8%GDP，而截至2023年7月的12个月滚动赤字，已经达到了8.5%GDP。所以，后续12个月滚动的财政赤字，将会从8.5%下降到6.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上8月的数字已经开始环比下滑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ea8fde466b76cb93746c5efc1b9e12\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更重要的是，名义上的财政赤字，并不能衡量财政对实体经济的真实推动力度，需要扣除存量国债的利息支出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">80年代，美国之所以能够承受10%以上的国债利率，依然搞星球大战计划搞财政扩张，因为当时美国政府杠杆率位于历史最低水平，仅不到40%。而疫情后，美国政府杠杆创新高达到了历史最高水平120%，是当时的3倍。也就意味着，利率仅仅需要是当时的1/3水平，偿债负担就等同当年。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87ede1942468bb021cf85b8225b6fb23\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去一年，因为利率仍在上升过程中，平均水平并不高，且期限大于1年的存量国债暂时仍只需支付低利率。美国的利息支出已经上升到3.5%GDP，随着时间推移，存量国债到期，新发国债需要支付当前市场水平的利率，估计只需要1年多以后，美国国债的利息支出/GDP，将会突破5%，超过80年代的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这就意味着，即便明年美国财政赤字依然维持6.8%，大部分将被用来还利息，用于支持实体经济的赤字将大幅下降。<strong>也就说是，从支持实体经济的角度，明年美国实体经济将遭遇大幅的财政紧缩。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eea27c9b72b63b19e69b1b4d3b7905c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"481\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>信贷已经失速，后续财政还将实质紧缩。美国经济衰退的迹象已现，后续确认进入衰退的确定性是很高的。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_860609799\" style=\"text-align: start;\">2. 为什么美债利率还在创新高？</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为供需关系大逆转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>供应端：</strong>上半年美国赤字水平本身不高，还以消耗财政部账户存量余额为主，发债量并不大，为过去几年的偏低水平，下半年发债量环比上半年大幅上升，创下除2020年2季度之外的单季度最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/928fbcef82b3cedc83629f262e8bc29c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>需求端：</strong>因为硅谷银行等的小银行风暴，美联储上半年一度暂停缩表，重新大幅扩表，整个上半年美联储资产负债表基本持平。而随着银行业风暴过去，美联储开始重新快速缩表。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b02d27d0d8836d84fb382d51958f1721\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以，以年中为分界，美国国债的供需关系大逆转。海量的发行+美联储的抛售，推升利率大幅上升并创出今年新高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">利率上升，只是因为供需关系，并不是因为下半年美国经济的前景变得更好了。</p><h2 id=\"id_3618973810\" style=\"text-align: start;\">3.美联储的大麻烦</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">故事的另一位主角，美联储，现在也面临大麻烦。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前面讲过，美联储从2008年金融危机之后，开启了试验性质的量化宽松，其资产负债表扩张了近10倍。从1万亿美元，到接近10万亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">占GDP的比例，也扩张了6倍，从6%左右，上升到最高36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c73c5c6d0506531bda37196d6d728d7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"686\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于美联储来说，其负债主要挂钩短端利率，比如基准利率 联邦基金利率，而其资产主要挂钩长端利率，比如国债利率，MBS利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在利率曲线正常的环境下，持续QE扩表这种做法，不仅推升经济，促进就业，推升资产价格，提升美国居民财富水平，美联储自己甚至还可以赚大钱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如长短端利差正挂水平较大，且资产负债表绝对规模位于历史最高位附近的2021年，美联储盈利超过1000亿美元。相比其近10万亿的资产规模，对应1%出头的正息差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>真是像黑魔法一样神奇！！</strong>！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是通胀终于一骑绝尘，美联储被迫大幅加息，利率曲线今年进入大幅倒挂。同样的道理相反的方向，美联储开始血亏。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年上半年，亏损超过500亿，全年预计亏损超过1000亿美元。对应1%出头的负息差。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1329963c133c5e05e6a29c571e5bfd06\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"795\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更加有趣的是：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储的盈利，都是归美国财政的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当年财政强刺激的背景下，美联储的利润，为财政支出也是更添了一把火。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么道理上，美联储的亏损，也是应该由财政负担的。在现在往后美国将要面临的实质性财政紧缩中，美联储的亏损，还要再分掉一部分财政支出，釜底再抽一把薪。</p><p><strong>原来，黑魔法是回旋镖。最后砸到的竟然是自己！</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1493469051\">4.出路在哪里</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前文曾经提到过，上一段跟现在类似的历史，是80年里根总统任期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在里根任期的前4年：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">跟现在同样的财政扩张；叠加当时美联储主席沃克尔的强力货币收缩，跟现在一样的信贷下行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">跟现在同样的贸易逆差扩大，经济走弱，企业盈利下滑的同时，美债利率上升，美元强势。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54e76e09febec71228aa75111eab40c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"744\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长和总统顾问人选发生了改变，政策策思路达成了共识，发生了重大变化。新的政策方向：一方面削减财政赤字，一方面放松货币。同时进行了国际协调，鼓励主要贸易伙伴（日本德国等）实施反方向的政策：加强财政刺激同时维持基准利率不变，以更好的服务美国的政策目标。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一政策思路取得了预期的效果。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">84年年中，美债利率开始趋势下行，美国经济走出了困境，失业率下降，企业盈利回升，股市阶段性下跌后，转为上涨。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，美元的强势一去不复返。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮，美元持续大幅下跌。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从85年初的高点算起，</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然后低位继续震荡了近10年，直到1995年才开始下一轮上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>站在现在，出路也是类似的：</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国财政将面临实质性收缩，美国经济将出现较深的衰退，美债利率将会大幅下行。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国国债的利息负担，将跟80年代相当。但美联储的超大资产负债表，面临大幅亏损的情况，是历史上从来没有过的。所以，尤其在当前美联储的困境下，大幅降息的必要性是更大的。只有大幅降息，让利率曲线回归常态的近地远高，才能逆转美联储大幅亏损的土壤。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>本轮美元也将持续贬值，或许会持续若干年。</strong>直到美国经济的下一次大周期回升。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我本来以为拐点也类似上一轮，发生在大选之后。但昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本文花费了我几乎一天的时间，今天就写到这里先休息了，作为上篇。主要讨论美国当前面临的经济困境和后续大概率的政策和经济走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">后面2天，会择机完成本文的下篇，讨论为什么上一轮美元见大顶之后，日元和日本股市进入牛市，以及为什么本轮会是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610944563427","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓：美元黄昏，人民币和中国股市有望迎来牛市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-10-05 23:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A><strong>半夏投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：半夏投资 李蓓中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。其实今年还有一件百年一遇的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad7f61931a0d39e3cccfd6e5e3b0ef5e","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xheQbbs00apzieQQQ0yA1A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115854198","content_text":"作者：半夏投资 李蓓中国的国庆假期，海外非常热闹。首先是美元利率持续创新高，代表性的十年期国债收益率，一度突破4.8%。然后就在昨天，发生了一件大事，美国的众院议长麦卡锡，被投票罢免。美国的众议院议长，名义上是美国的3号人物，但因为美国副总统其实是个花瓶和摆设，众议院议长实际算是美国的第2号实权人物。麦卡锡，是美国两百年以来，第一位被罢免的众议院议长，他的任期仅仅9个月。其实今年还有一件百年一遇的大事，美联储上半年亏损超过500亿美元，预计全年亏损超过1000亿美元，是近100年的第一次亏损。以至于美联储已经宣布计划大幅裁员300人。这三件事情，表面上看起来没有关系，但实际上都是一根藤上结出的瓜。这根藤就是疫情后美国的超强财政刺激，而这根藤生长的土壤，就是自2008年之后的10多年，过度宽松的货币政策，低利率叠加先锋试验性质的量化宽松手段。2008年金融危机后，美国开展了史无前例的强货币刺激。疫情后，又开展了史无前例的强财政刺激。在一些思路更加传统的反对者看来，这些政策毫无节操和底线。即便我们抛却情感色彩和价值取向，单从技术层面评估这些政策，它们也是具有相当的先锋和试验性质的，在历史上并无先例，这也意味着，它们的后果也是没有先例可以参考的。这些先锋试验性的政策的藤上，陆续结出很多的果实。早期，多是甜瓜。经济增长，居民收入高增，充分就业，企业盈利扩张，股市上涨，美元强势。而随着时间推移，越到后来，越来越多结出了苦果。包括高通胀，下降的购买力，扩大的贸易逆差，大片倒闭的小银行，大幅亏损的美联储，割裂的政坛，无以为继的经济增长动力。或许，印证了那条朴素的道理，天底下没有免费的午餐，所有看似上天馈赠的礼物，都是有代价的。在我看来，当前美债利率和美元的强势，都是强弩之末，如同日落前的黄昏，最后的绚烂。因为美国的强财政刺激已经透支太多，难以为继，即便明年预算赤字维持目前计划的6.8%高位，因为利息支出占比大幅提升，甚至占据大部分的的赤字空间，美国明年也将转向实质上的财政收缩，经济大概率会发生超市场预期的衰退，美债利率也将显著下行，美元也将进入一段可能持续若干年的贬值周期。我本来以为拐点会发生在明年的大选后。因为上一段跟现在类似（但远没有现在过分）的历史，正是大选铸就了拐点。那是80年里根政府上台之后，同样的财政扩张叠加货币收缩，同样的贸易逆差扩大同时美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长换人，经济政策发生重大转变，削减赤字+货币宽松，同时进行了国际协调以更好的服务美国的政策目标。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮。从85年初的高点算起，仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。上一轮美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市迎来牛市。1，美元强势的背后年初，市场的一致预期是美国衰退，利率下行。而到现在，事实是美国经济韧性远超市场预期，美债利率创出新高。截至今年1季度末，经济的强势和韧性，还是来自私人部门内生的力量。无论工商业贷款，还是居民贷款，都依然维持10%左右的高增速。加息抑制经济增长，是需要有传导路径的。首先要抑制信贷增速，信贷增速下行传导到总需求下行，然后经济放缓。所以3月硅谷银行出事，很多人认为美国经济会快速崩塌的时候，我是持反面看法的。因为即便小银行出事，企业和居民信贷依然维持10%左右的增速，说明小银行的集团困难，甚至都并没有妨碍信贷增速，所以短期经济并不会有什么大问题。但半年多过去了，到现在情况已经大不相同，工商业贷款增速已经下滑到0增速，居民贷款增速大幅下滑到5%左右。美国的很多其它指标，也出现了拐头向下的趋势。美国的成屋销售（占美国地产销售80%以上），再度下滑创新低。位于20年最低水平附近。美国的居民信心和预期，最近2个月拐头向下。过去2个季度，维持美国经济韧性的，最大的向上力量，是美国的财政。12个月滚动的财政赤字/GDP，从去年3季度的不到5%，到今年7月一度上升到超过8%。8%GDP的财政赤字是什么概念呢？国际上公认的财政赤字红线，是3%。从更长的周期来看历史比较，80年代初里根政府搞星球大战计划，财政大扩张的时候，仅上升到5%，2008年百年一遇的金融危机，也就10%。本轮疫情，美国政府超强财政刺激，赤字率超过08年金融危机，达到了历史上从未有过的15%。在未知的疫情面前，下猛药，有一定的合理性，在当时极低利率的环境下，高赤字的成本也并不可怕。但现在疫情已经过去，通胀依然高企，经济需要降温，利率已经大幅上升，赤字的成本大幅上升，副作用也大幅上升，好处又大幅下降，但拜登政府形成了对财政刺激的药物依赖，不愿意降药量。这种非常显然且过度的寅吃卯粮的透支行为，在美国国内也是有很多反对的声音的。比如刚被罢免的麦卡锡，上任之初的主张之一，便是要督促政府削减开支。而现在其违背了当初的承诺，与拜登政府达成妥协，就遭遇了共和党内其它强硬派的反对，发起动议，投票罢免而且成功。就算拜登政府毫无纪律的预算方案，政府内部没有反对的声音的力量。后续美国政府维持当前的财政预算，美国的财政赤字也已经见顶。因为美国政府通过的2023年度财政赤字预算是6%GDP，2024年是6.8%GDP，而截至2023年7月的12个月滚动赤字，已经达到了8.5%GDP。所以，后续12个月滚动的财政赤字，将会从8.5%下降到6.8%。事实上8月的数字已经开始环比下滑。更重要的是，名义上的财政赤字，并不能衡量财政对实体经济的真实推动力度，需要扣除存量国债的利息支出。80年代，美国之所以能够承受10%以上的国债利率，依然搞星球大战计划搞财政扩张，因为当时美国政府杠杆率位于历史最低水平，仅不到40%。而疫情后，美国政府杠杆创新高达到了历史最高水平120%，是当时的3倍。也就意味着，利率仅仅需要是当时的1/3水平，偿债负担就等同当年。过去一年，因为利率仍在上升过程中，平均水平并不高，且期限大于1年的存量国债暂时仍只需支付低利率。美国的利息支出已经上升到3.5%GDP，随着时间推移，存量国债到期，新发国债需要支付当前市场水平的利率，估计只需要1年多以后，美国国债的利息支出/GDP，将会突破5%，超过80年代的最高水平。这就意味着，即便明年美国财政赤字依然维持6.8%，大部分将被用来还利息，用于支持实体经济的赤字将大幅下降。也就说是，从支持实体经济的角度，明年美国实体经济将遭遇大幅的财政紧缩。信贷已经失速，后续财政还将实质紧缩。美国经济衰退的迹象已现，后续确认进入衰退的确定性是很高的。2. 为什么美债利率还在创新高？因为供需关系大逆转。供应端：上半年美国赤字水平本身不高，还以消耗财政部账户存量余额为主，发债量并不大，为过去几年的偏低水平，下半年发债量环比上半年大幅上升，创下除2020年2季度之外的单季度最高水平。需求端：因为硅谷银行等的小银行风暴，美联储上半年一度暂停缩表，重新大幅扩表，整个上半年美联储资产负债表基本持平。而随着银行业风暴过去，美联储开始重新快速缩表。所以，以年中为分界，美国国债的供需关系大逆转。海量的发行+美联储的抛售，推升利率大幅上升并创出今年新高。利率上升，只是因为供需关系，并不是因为下半年美国经济的前景变得更好了。3.美联储的大麻烦故事的另一位主角，美联储，现在也面临大麻烦。前面讲过，美联储从2008年金融危机之后，开启了试验性质的量化宽松，其资产负债表扩张了近10倍。从1万亿美元，到接近10万亿美元。占GDP的比例，也扩张了6倍，从6%左右，上升到最高36%。对于美联储来说，其负债主要挂钩短端利率，比如基准利率 联邦基金利率，而其资产主要挂钩长端利率，比如国债利率，MBS利率。在利率曲线正常的环境下，持续QE扩表这种做法，不仅推升经济，促进就业，推升资产价格，提升美国居民财富水平，美联储自己甚至还可以赚大钱。比如长短端利差正挂水平较大，且资产负债表绝对规模位于历史最高位附近的2021年，美联储盈利超过1000亿美元。相比其近10万亿的资产规模，对应1%出头的正息差。真是像黑魔法一样神奇！！！但是通胀终于一骑绝尘，美联储被迫大幅加息，利率曲线今年进入大幅倒挂。同样的道理相反的方向，美联储开始血亏。今年上半年，亏损超过500亿，全年预计亏损超过1000亿美元。对应1%出头的负息差。更加有趣的是：美联储的盈利，都是归美国财政的。当年财政强刺激的背景下，美联储的利润，为财政支出也是更添了一把火。那么道理上，美联储的亏损，也是应该由财政负担的。在现在往后美国将要面临的实质性财政紧缩中，美联储的亏损，还要再分掉一部分财政支出，釜底再抽一把薪。原来，黑魔法是回旋镖。最后砸到的竟然是自己！4.出路在哪里前文曾经提到过，上一段跟现在类似的历史，是80年里根总统任期。在里根任期的前4年：跟现在同样的财政扩张；叠加当时美联储主席沃克尔的强力货币收缩，跟现在一样的信贷下行。跟现在同样的贸易逆差扩大，经济走弱，企业盈利下滑的同时，美债利率上升，美元强势。那一段历史的拐点，发生在84年的大选后，财政部长和总统顾问人选发生了改变，政策策思路达成了共识，发生了重大变化。新的政策方向：一方面削减财政赤字，一方面放松货币。同时进行了国际协调，鼓励主要贸易伙伴（日本德国等）实施反方向的政策：加强财政刺激同时维持基准利率不变，以更好的服务美国的政策目标。这一政策思路取得了预期的效果。84年年中，美债利率开始趋势下行，美国经济走出了困境，失业率下降，企业盈利回升，股市阶段性下跌后，转为上涨。然而，美元的强势一去不复返。85年初，美元开始拐头向下，拐点后的新趋势在85年9月的广场协议后达到了高潮，美元持续大幅下跌。从85年初的高点算起，仅仅2年时间，美元指数贬值了近一半。然后低位继续震荡了近10年，直到1995年才开始下一轮上升。站在现在，出路也是类似的：美国财政将面临实质性收缩，美国经济将出现较深的衰退，美债利率将会大幅下行。美国国债的利息负担，将跟80年代相当。但美联储的超大资产负债表，面临大幅亏损的情况，是历史上从来没有过的。所以，尤其在当前美联储的困境下，大幅降息的必要性是更大的。只有大幅降息，让利率曲线回归常态的近地远高，才能逆转美联储大幅亏损的土壤。本轮美元也将持续贬值，或许会持续若干年。直到美国经济的下一次大周期回升。我本来以为拐点也类似上一轮，发生在大选之后。但昨天麦卡锡的被罢免，让我意识到拐点可能被提前。因为麦卡锡之所以被罢免，正是因为他放弃了之前大幅削减财政支出的主张，跟拜登政府达成妥协，避免了政府关门。这可能宣示着一个重要的拐点，美国内部也已经清醒认识到无纪律的透支性的超强财政刺激不可持续，并且在合力上反对这种政策的力量已经占优。如果金融市场也意识到这一点，则对长期限美债的恐慌抛售，对美元现金的买入可能会提前逆转。美债利率和美元都可能提前见顶。上一段可类比的历史中，美国经济上的主要竞争对手，美国制裁和打压的对象，世界上最主要的顺差国，因高顺差得以维持大幅低于美元利率的国家，是日本。美元见顶后，日本的货币和股市都迎来了超级牛市。而这一轮，可能是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。本文花费了我几乎一天的时间，今天就写到这里先休息了，作为上篇。主要讨论美国当前面临的经济困境和后续大概率的政策和经济走向。后面2天，会择机完成本文的下篇，讨论为什么上一轮美元见大顶之后，日元和日本股市进入牛市，以及为什么本轮会是人民币和中国股市进入牛市。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":226553604034744,"gmtCreate":1696319035412,"gmtModify":1696319036877,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我加仓了英伟达","listText":"我加仓了英伟达","text":"我加仓了英伟达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/226553604034744","repostId":"1170359199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170359199","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1696255449,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170359199?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-10-02 22:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股异动 | 英伟达涨超3%，获高盛升级为“强烈买入”评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170359199","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月2日，$英伟达(NVDA)$涨近3%，消息上，$高盛(GS)$将英伟达加入“确信买入名单”，并将其评级从“买入”升级为“强烈买入”。此外，英伟达将于10月15日-16日在以色列特拉维夫召开AI峰会，就人工智能的各个方面进行探讨，首席执行官黄仁勋将发表主题演讲。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超3%，消息上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将英伟达加入“确信买入名单”，并将其评级从“买入”升级为“强烈买入”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b49e7ee5c8b442c0a17bc3849ec460\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，英伟达将于10月15日-16日在以色列特拉维夫召开AI峰会，就人工智能的各个方面进行探讨，首席执行官黄仁勋将发表主题演讲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达还宣布将于明年3月18日至21日，在美国加州圣何塞会议中心举行年度GTC开发者大会。按照惯例，英伟达将会在GTC上发布其图形技术的更新，并将带来新一代数据中心产品。这一次，所有人的目光都集中在其备受期待的Blackwell系列产品上。而这些系列预计也将扩展到游戏领域，尽管游戏芯片的底层架构会有所不同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910964f0ac6cf3f0e39c84ab0c67d46d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股异动 | 英伟达涨超3%，获高盛升级为“强烈买入”评级</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股异动 | 英伟达涨超3%，获高盛升级为“强烈买入”评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-10-02 22:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月2日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>涨超3%，消息上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>将英伟达加入“确信买入名单”，并将其评级从“买入”升级为“强烈买入”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b49e7ee5c8b442c0a17bc3849ec460\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，英伟达将于10月15日-16日在以色列特拉维夫召开AI峰会，就人工智能的各个方面进行探讨，首席执行官黄仁勋将发表主题演讲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达还宣布将于明年3月18日至21日，在美国加州圣何塞会议中心举行年度GTC开发者大会。按照惯例，英伟达将会在GTC上发布其图形技术的更新，并将带来新一代数据中心产品。这一次，所有人的目光都集中在其备受期待的Blackwell系列产品上。而这些系列预计也将扩展到游戏领域，尽管游戏芯片的底层架构会有所不同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910964f0ac6cf3f0e39c84ab0c67d46d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/910964f0ac6cf3f0e39c84ab0c67d46d","relate_stocks":{"LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今天加仓了亚马逊！","text":"诱多$老虎证券(TIGR)$今天加仓了亚马逊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665225935","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683528340,"gmtCreate":1656421244885,"gmtModify":1704864744810,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"西方石油定会大涨！","listText":"西方石油定会大涨！","text":"西方石油定会大涨！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683528340","repostId":"1171146618","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1171146618","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1656373246,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171146618?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-28 07:40","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特再次加仓西方石油，持股增至16.4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171146618","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月28日讯，伯克希尔哈撒韦当地时间周一晚间提交的监管文件显示，该公司在6月23日又买入了西方石油79.4万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%。伯克希尔上周刚刚披露，在6月17日至22日期间总计买入了95","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月28日讯，伯克希尔哈撒韦当地时间周一晚间提交的监管文件显示，该公司在6月23日又买入了西方石油79.4万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%。</p><p>伯克希尔上周刚刚披露，在6月17日至22日期间总计买入了950万股西方石油股票。现在，该公司总计持有1.535亿股西方石油股票，价值约90亿美元。</p><p>在最近的这次交易中，伯克希尔以每股53.39美元的价格购买了大部分新购入的股票，与最近几个月投入的资金相比，这笔钱不算多。随着能源价格的反弹，西方石油的股票在最近几天有所回升，周一上涨了2.4%，至58.90美元，但距5月末达到的74美元的峰值仍相差甚远。</p><p>作为持股超过10%的股东，伯克希尔必须在两个工作日内通过提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件披露对该公司股票的交易情况。</p><p>最新的这次加仓可能助长这样的猜测：伯克希尔哈撒韦将进一步增持西方石油股份至20%，甚至可能收购整个公司。</p><p>西方石油公司在5月的财报电话会议上表示，预计将在本季度启动30亿美元的股票回购计划。假设该计划得以执行，伯克希尔在该公司的持股比例将会上升。</p><p>西方石油公司是今年标准普尔500指数中表现最好的股票之一，因此伯克希尔继续被该公司吸引的原因并不难理解。即使在股价上涨的情况下，西方石油的股价仍仅为2022年预期收益的5倍。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特再次加仓西方石油，持股增至16.4%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特再次加仓西方石油，持股增至16.4%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-28 07:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月28日讯，伯克希尔哈撒韦当地时间周一晚间提交的监管文件显示，该公司在6月23日又买入了西方石油79.4万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%。</p><p>伯克希尔上周刚刚披露，在6月17日至22日期间总计买入了950万股西方石油股票。现在，该公司总计持有1.535亿股西方石油股票，价值约90亿美元。</p><p>在最近的这次交易中，伯克希尔以每股53.39美元的价格购买了大部分新购入的股票，与最近几个月投入的资金相比，这笔钱不算多。随着能源价格的反弹，西方石油的股票在最近几天有所回升，周一上涨了2.4%，至58.90美元，但距5月末达到的74美元的峰值仍相差甚远。</p><p>作为持股超过10%的股东，伯克希尔必须在两个工作日内通过提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件披露对该公司股票的交易情况。</p><p>最新的这次加仓可能助长这样的猜测：伯克希尔哈撒韦将进一步增持西方石油股份至20%，甚至可能收购整个公司。</p><p>西方石油公司在5月的财报电话会议上表示，预计将在本季度启动30亿美元的股票回购计划。假设该计划得以执行，伯克希尔在该公司的持股比例将会上升。</p><p>西方石油公司是今年标准普尔500指数中表现最好的股票之一，因此伯克希尔继续被该公司吸引的原因并不难理解。即使在股价上涨的情况下，西方石油的股价仍仅为2022年预期收益的5倍。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1b9fef028787bba142fa31212ae49d2","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OXY":"西方石油","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171146618","content_text":"6月28日讯，伯克希尔哈撒韦当地时间周一晚间提交的监管文件显示，该公司在6月23日又买入了西方石油79.4万股股票，持股比例增至16.4%。伯克希尔上周刚刚披露，在6月17日至22日期间总计买入了950万股西方石油股票。现在，该公司总计持有1.535亿股西方石油股票，价值约90亿美元。在最近的这次交易中，伯克希尔以每股53.39美元的价格购买了大部分新购入的股票，与最近几个月投入的资金相比，这笔钱不算多。随着能源价格的反弹，西方石油的股票在最近几天有所回升，周一上涨了2.4%，至58.90美元，但距5月末达到的74美元的峰值仍相差甚远。作为持股超过10%的股东，伯克希尔必须在两个工作日内通过提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件披露对该公司股票的交易情况。最新的这次加仓可能助长这样的猜测：伯克希尔哈撒韦将进一步增持西方石油股份至20%，甚至可能收购整个公司。西方石油公司在5月的财报电话会议上表示，预计将在本季度启动30亿美元的股票回购计划。假设该计划得以执行，伯克希尔在该公司的持股比例将会上升。西方石油公司是今年标准普尔500指数中表现最好的股票之一，因此伯克希尔继续被该公司吸引的原因并不难理解。即使在股价上涨的情况下，西方石油的股价仍仅为2022年预期收益的5倍。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317755840323896,"gmtCreate":1718616311199,"gmtModify":1718616313073,"author":{"id":"3575935618830200","authorId":"3575935618830200","name":"张律事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e99e46c0d7c77df3f9689a44e4b4ff1f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575935618830200","authorIdStr":"3575935618830200"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"英伟达还要涨很多！","listText":"英伟达还要涨很多！","text":"英伟达还要涨很多！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317755840323896","repostId":"1102863921","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102863921","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1718614861,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102863921?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-17 17:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巨型ETF再平衡，英伟达将迎百亿美元买入？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102863921","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"追踪科技股的最大ETF SPDR基金(XLK)将在本周进行季度再平衡，调整股权权重。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>700亿美元巨型ETF将在本周进行再平衡，英伟达是否会取代苹果成为其第二大持股？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据媒体上周五报道，<strong>追踪科技股的最大ETF SPDR基金(XLK)将在本周进行季度再平衡，调整股权权重。目前苹果和微软分别占该基金约22%的权重，英伟达在该基金中的权重占不到6%。</strong></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a71eb6df5ac3e5910bc311db9529a1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">截至上周五收盘，微软、苹果和英伟达的市值相差均在1000亿美元以内，根据谷歌财经数据苹果市值为3.26万亿美元，英伟达市值为3.24万亿。XLK的持仓根据流通股调整后的市值来做出决定，因此交易员可能需要等待标普、道指的官方通知才能确定最终顺序。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银在此前的报告中预测：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果英伟达升至第二位，而苹果降至第三位，那么英伟达在该基金中的权重将跃升至21%，而苹果的权重将降至仅4.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>而英伟达15%的权重波动意味着该基金需要买入大量英伟达股票，金额可能高达100亿美元，而且全部要在6月21日或非常接近该日期的重新平衡日购买，这种大规模的交易有可能在短期推高英伟达股价。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对比之下，上周五英伟达的总成交量约为500亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析指出，指数基金出现这种大转变并不常见，但并非史无前例。SPDR美洲研究主管Matthew Bartolini指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">之前曾出现围绕行业分类变化的再平衡，例如亚马逊被移至非必需消费品类别。如果我们被迫进行一笔相当重大的交易，我认为我们有能力应对。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巨型ETF再平衡，英伟达将迎百亿美元买入？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巨型ETF再平衡，英伟达将迎百亿美元买入？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-17 17:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717371><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>700亿美元巨型ETF将在本周进行再平衡，英伟达是否会取代苹果成为其第二大持股？据媒体上周五报道，追踪科技股的最大ETF SPDR基金(XLK)将在本周进行季度再平衡，调整股权权重。目前苹果和微软分别占该基金约22%的权重，英伟达在该基金中的权重占不到6%。截至上周五收盘，微软、苹果和英伟达的市值相差均在1000亿美元以内，根据谷歌财经数据苹果市值为3.26万亿美元，英伟达市值为3.24万亿。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717371\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d788f727e26434db149309671116a447","relate_stocks":{"XLK":"高科技指数ETF-SPDR","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717371","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1102863921","content_text":"700亿美元巨型ETF将在本周进行再平衡，英伟达是否会取代苹果成为其第二大持股？据媒体上周五报道，追踪科技股的最大ETF SPDR基金(XLK)将在本周进行季度再平衡，调整股权权重。目前苹果和微软分别占该基金约22%的权重，英伟达在该基金中的权重占不到6%。截至上周五收盘，微软、苹果和英伟达的市值相差均在1000亿美元以内，根据谷歌财经数据苹果市值为3.26万亿美元，英伟达市值为3.24万亿。XLK的持仓根据流通股调整后的市值来做出决定，因此交易员可能需要等待标普、道指的官方通知才能确定最终顺序。瑞银在此前的报告中预测：如果英伟达升至第二位，而苹果降至第三位，那么英伟达在该基金中的权重将跃升至21%，而苹果的权重将降至仅4.5%。而英伟达15%的权重波动意味着该基金需要买入大量英伟达股票，金额可能高达100亿美元，而且全部要在6月21日或非常接近该日期的重新平衡日购买，这种大规模的交易有可能在短期推高英伟达股价。对比之下，上周五英伟达的总成交量约为500亿美元。分析指出，指数基金出现这种大转变并不常见，但并非史无前例。SPDR美洲研究主管Matthew 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11:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月6日上午，中国汽车论坛的大会论坛召开。为维护良好的汽车市场秩序，共同营造良好消费环境，积极稳定和促进汽车消费，在有关部门见证下，中国汽车工业协会携一汽、东风、上汽、长安、北汽、广汽、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000951\">中国重汽</a>、奇瑞、江淮、吉利、长城、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想、小鹏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>企业高层联合签署了《汽车行业维护公平市场秩序承诺书》。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","02015":"理想汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA 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H2-SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185279172","content_text":"7月6日上午，中国汽车论坛的大会论坛召开。为维护良好的汽车市场秩序，共同营造良好消费环境，积极稳定和促进汽车消费，在有关部门见证下，中国汽车工业协会携一汽、东风、上汽、长安、北汽、广汽、中国重汽、奇瑞、江淮、吉利、长城、比亚迪、蔚来、理想、小鹏、特斯拉企业高层联合签署了《汽车行业维护公平市场秩序承诺书》。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}