小白龍的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小白龍

小白龍

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2021-03-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$怎么说呢..... 快飞吧

2021-02-22

$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$表现不错，继续飞起来！

2021-06-29

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$看好你哟，继续冲！

2021-06-22

$Castor Maritime, Inc.(CTRM)$😮‍💨哎…..

2021-06-21

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$按兵不动，终于回血了[真香]

2021-03-08

$福特汽车(F)$满江红里唯一的绿色[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸]

2021-07-14

我说呢

B站出现访问故障，股价涨幅收窄

2021-06-25

快涨吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-20

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$是时候卖掉了！

2021-06-24

[惊讶]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

哎…

台积电被吹过头了？大摩降评：投它就是投死钱

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-13 23:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周二，B站出现访问故障，疑似出现服务器宕机事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>股价短线走低，涨幅收窄至3%，此前一度涨约5%。据悉B站主站、App 以及小程序都无法使用。目前“b 站崩了”话题已登上微博热搜。从网友反馈来看，该问题出现的范围较大，国内国外都有受影响用户反馈。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83cd4cc6835de30899d483e3c6709f27\" tg-width=\"1730\" tg-height=\"1044\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ddd44f5f37a0c4e5cfbf26e4ed5b5fb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5bd37e1ed66bebf496c6e19004b95d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dfca12a1e9d541cb46bc6ec6361a60a","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188731119","content_text":"周二，B站出现访问故障，疑似出现服务器宕机事故。哔哩哔哩股价短线走低，涨幅收窄至3%，此前一度涨约5%。据悉B站主站、App 以及小程序都无法使用。目前“b 站崩了”话题已登上微博热搜。从网友反馈来看，该问题出现的范围较大，国内国外都有受影响用户反馈。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125018125,"gmtCreate":1624636430767,"gmtModify":1633950201852,"author":{"id":"3574127231230464","authorId":"3574127231230464","name":"小白龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c76804e1f539db02c14ee09d44a54d5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574127231230464","authorIdStr":"3574127231230464"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"快涨吧","listText":"快涨吧","text":"快涨吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125018125","repostId":"1108081654","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859473445,"gmtCreate":1634728361829,"gmtModify":1634728361976,"author":{"id":"3574127231230464","authorId":"3574127231230464","name":"小白龍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c76804e1f539db02c14ee09d44a54d5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574127231230464","authorIdStr":"3574127231230464"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电被吹过头了？大摩降评：投它就是投死钱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145588741","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑，可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的ROI出现结构性下滑。部分原因是，台积电同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。\n\n过去两年，台积电","content":"<blockquote>\n 5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑，可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的ROI出现结构性下滑。部分原因是，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。\n</blockquote>\n<p>过去两年，台积电先进制程领先地位几乎得到市场共识，近日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>却打出降评第一枪。</p>\n<p>在一份长达80页的报告中，该行下修对台积电评级至“中立”，并将目标价由655新台币下调至580新台币。按周三收盘价595新台币计算，意味着还有2.5%的下行空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5806eee28e6b94f99a356cca308798b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"455\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>报告显示，这一目标价比当前市场共识预期低了23％，与主流观点明显相左。目前台积电被外资行普遍评为“增持”股，共识均值落在749新台币，<b>但摩根士丹利认为未来12-18个月，其股票将“恐如死钱”。</b></p>\n<p><b>ROI恐出现结构性下滑，毛利率预计跌破50%关口</b></p>\n<p>2021年是摩尔定律发展的重要里程碑，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>在2纳米、台积电在1纳米双双取得突破。身为先进制程的“技术推动者”，台积电目前已是全球芯片业市值最大的公司，获得市场主流观点一致乐观看好。</p>\n<p>然而摩根士丹利报告指出，虽然过去一段时间以来，台积电确实凭借商业化“摩尔定律”取得市盈率长期扩张，<b>但5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑（Exhibit 1），可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的投资回报率（ROI）出现结构性下滑（Exhibit 4）。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8226878d0f78b74b4024d2697b1aa7df\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeeefb24ecc31c20e17d8f600d9d222\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>部分原因是，台积电同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。</b>摩根士丹利提到，根据3纳米晶圆的初步定价，成本较5纳米并没有进一步下降，意味着摩尔定律的成本优势已经结束（Exhibit 3）。一些替代技术，诸如先进的3D封装，在提升芯片性能的同时，也可能削弱市场对3纳米、2纳米制程的需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdff8800ec23e7e9243439b380d0986\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>作为台积电EUV光刻机供应商，<b>目前ASML已超越其大股东获得更高毛利率。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81810d99824f2b4fadc18221ce04433d\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，台积电近期资本支出激进，先是公开声明投资120亿美元在美国亚利桑那州设厂，后又有传言将在日本建设基地。疫情的反复、重复下单等风险，也成为威胁台积电业绩的潜在因素。</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利预计，<b>以上种种将削减台积电2021年毛利率至50%以下，跌破投资者重要心理关口，</b>也低于华尔街对其此后两年52%毛利率的共识。而这还是在预设芯片业处于上行周期的情况下，一旦产业进入下行周期，投资者可能不得不重估台积电长期营运成长预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78fc81a0a2366c79a188c46c8a6d6d35\" tg-width=\"623\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>该行警告称，<b>2022年后芯片业会进入一个下修周期，可能提前到今年四季度就会看到代工涨势告一段落。</b></p>\n<p>更长期看，摩根士丹利预计台积电收入仍将总体保持增长趋势，但不会像市场想象的那么乐观，目前看涨者对其五年内收入翻番的预期是“吹过头”了。</p>\n<p>该行直言，本身估值已经不便宜的情况下，再把钱投到台积电相当于拿了笔“死钱”。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电被吹过头了？大摩降评：投它就是投死钱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-23 17:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑，可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的ROI出现结构性下滑。部分原因是，台积电同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。\n\n过去两年，台积电先进制程领先地位几乎得到市场共识，近日摩根士丹利却打出降评第一枪。\n在一份长达80页的报告中，该行下修对台积电评级至“中立”，并将目标价由655新台币下调至580新台币。按周三收盘价595新台币计算，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145588741","content_text":"5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑，可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的ROI出现结构性下滑。部分原因是，台积电同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。\n\n过去两年，台积电先进制程领先地位几乎得到市场共识，近日摩根士丹利却打出降评第一枪。\n在一份长达80页的报告中，该行下修对台积电评级至“中立”，并将目标价由655新台币下调至580新台币。按周三收盘价595新台币计算，意味着还有2.5%的下行空间。\n\n报告显示，这一目标价比当前市场共识预期低了23％，与主流观点明显相左。目前台积电被外资行普遍评为“增持”股，共识均值落在749新台币，但摩根士丹利认为未来12-18个月，其股票将“恐如死钱”。\nROI恐出现结构性下滑，毛利率预计跌破50%关口\n2021年是摩尔定律发展的重要里程碑，IBM在2纳米、台积电在1纳米双双取得突破。身为先进制程的“技术推动者”，台积电目前已是全球芯片业市值最大的公司，获得市场主流观点一致乐观看好。\n然而摩根士丹利报告指出，虽然过去一段时间以来，台积电确实凭借商业化“摩尔定律”取得市盈率长期扩张，但5纳米制程以后，2、3纳米制程上需要更高强度的资本支撑（Exhibit 1），可能导致先进制程晶圆代工的投资回报率（ROI）出现结构性下滑（Exhibit 4）。\n\n部分原因是，台积电同艾司摩尔（ASML）等关键设备供应商的议价能力正在减弱。摩根士丹利提到，根据3纳米晶圆的初步定价，成本较5纳米并没有进一步下降，意味着摩尔定律的成本优势已经结束（Exhibit 3）。一些替代技术，诸如先进的3D封装，在提升芯片性能的同时，也可能削弱市场对3纳米、2纳米制程的需求。\n\n作为台积电EUV光刻机供应商，目前ASML已超越其大股东获得更高毛利率。\n\n此外，台积电近期资本支出激进，先是公开声明投资120亿美元在美国亚利桑那州设厂，后又有传言将在日本建设基地。疫情的反复、重复下单等风险，也成为威胁台积电业绩的潜在因素。\n摩根士丹利预计，以上种种将削减台积电2021年毛利率至50%以下，跌破投资者重要心理关口，也低于华尔街对其此后两年52%毛利率的共识。而这还是在预设芯片业处于上行周期的情况下，一旦产业进入下行周期，投资者可能不得不重估台积电长期营运成长预期。\n\n该行警告称，2022年后芯片业会进入一个下修周期，可能提前到今年四季度就会看到代工涨势告一段落。\n更长期看，摩根士丹利预计台积电收入仍将总体保持增长趋势，但不会像市场想象的那么乐观，目前看涨者对其五年内收入翻番的预期是“吹过头”了。\n该行直言，本身估值已经不便宜的情况下，再把钱投到台积电相当于拿了笔“死钱”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}