稳赚波波熊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

稳赚波波熊

稳赚波波熊

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IP属地：北京

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稳赚波波熊

2021-07-27

$老虎证券(TIGR)$突然觉得中概股好可怜，美股跌它也大跌，美股涨它也跌…

稳赚波波熊

2021-07-26

$富途控股(FUTU)$咋整啊[流泪]

稳赚波波熊

2021-07-22

$法拉第未来(FFIE)$懂车的人知道什么是真正的好车，值得期待可以傲世群车的产品实力，清晰的用户定位，靠谱的实力团队，就算贾总算个减分项也不能如此低估和错杀啊! 我盘前买，现在接着买!

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大盘不好对你有信心，不看了，睡觉

稳赚波波熊

2021-07-02

$滴滴(DIDI)$至于吗？一则正常新闻弄得股价大跌，是股民对公司没信心了还是借机吸筹?

稳赚波波熊

2021-07-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这绝对是只**股票，大盘跌还是跌，大盘涨它也跌，以后盘前必卖!

稳赚波波熊

2021-03-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$洗洗睡吧，不看了

稳赚波波熊

2021-02-20

$富途控股(FUTU)$中途还想再进点可惜已经没法上车了

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-23

$富途控股(FUTU)$好票啊！👍

稳赚波波熊

2021-03-31

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大跌至今先后割了亏了4k，希望剩下的能把亏的给补齐了吧。老虎加油啊！

稳赚波波熊

2021-03-30

$老虎证券(TIGR)$赶紧发威吧你个病猫天天跌跌跌的有意思吗？!

稳赚波波熊

2021-07-05

造谣成本太低，对这种人就应该严加惩罚，另外稍稍有脑子的人或者干过数据安全的人都知道，这种公司级别对于信息安全对于个人信息是有非常严格的管控的，我也相信嘀嘀是不敢把这种数据交给美国的。

抱歉，原内容已删除

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-28

看以往走势，今天大概率跌

稳赚波波熊

2021-05-25

$富途控股(FUTU)$上上下下都几波了，从最多的时候赚 30% 到最差的时候亏了 20% ，早知道该出的时候出点，在最低点接回来也不敢操作，美股和大癌股真不一样[害羞]

稳赚波波熊

2021-03-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我怎么觉得是典型的庄家控盘啊

稳赚波波熊

2021-08-26

很多问题我占一

为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-28

这是唯一一只我买了让我亏钱的新能源汽车股票，再一看又太高了，拜拜吧😪

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-27

上汽早就尝试过类似混改，赛可电子商务(车享/家)，东风汽车效果待观察，不会好过上汽吧。

岚图汽车成立独立法人公司员工持股超10%格隆汇6月26日丨岚图汽车成立独立法人公司，公司注册名为“岚图汽车科技有限公司”，由东风汽车集团股份有限公司和岚图汽车核心员工持股平台共同出资成立，其中核心员工持股占比10%以上。

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-25

#每日优鲜最近打新运气不错[开心]

稳赚波波熊

2021-06-25

niubility

抱歉，原内容已删除

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今天，H&amp;M、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">$耐克(NKE)$</a> 、巴宝莉、玛莎等欧美服装品牌，先后宣布了禁用新疆棉的公告，彻底把新疆棉事件推向了高潮。 全国网友都在声讨这些品牌，众多明星纷纷解约代言，人民日报、新华社等官媒纷纷发文批评。 直到今天，政府机构也发出了严正警告： 事情发展到这种地步，已经是非常严重了，说明这不仅仅是一个简单的商业行为了。 如果你还不当回事儿的话，只能说反射弧太长了。 02&nbsp;美国的阴谋 美国从去年就开始造谣新疆棉是强迫劳动生产的，这个故事在他们身上发生过，所以这样便于他们像呆萌的西方民众传播谎言。事实上，北疆棉田机械化采摘率高达9成，南疆也在逐年增长，目前整个新疆棉田机械采摘率已达69.83%。 （新疆姑娘介绍新疆人民如何采棉） 美国造谣的原因，其实还是对中国贸易战的一部分。 我国是世界最大的纺织品生产国和出口国，产量占比超过世界的一半以上，服装出口额占全球的35%。纺织产业既是我国的支柱产业，也是具有明显国际竞争优势的产业。 同时，中国还是世界上最大的棉花生产国，生产量占比约为全世界的1/4。 由于，新疆独有的自然环境，新疆棉产量大、质量好，占到了全国总产量的84.9%。新疆棉是新疆的重要经济支柱，为新疆人民带了巨大的财富。 棉花又是纺织业最基础的原材料，所以美国打压新疆棉的阴谋，及其狠毒，可谓一箭多雕： 对中国在芯片等高科技进行打压的同时，又对中国支柱产业进行打压； 打击我国新疆人民的收入，为分裂我国埋下伏笔； 挑起中国和欧洲国家的矛盾，阻断《中欧全面投资协定》； 打压中国纺织业，侧面利好东南亚纺织业，伺机阻断《RCEP》（东盟自贸协定）； 美国是世界第三大棉花生产国，但他们几乎没有纺织业，82%的产量出口，是世界最大","listText":"01&nbsp;事态有多严重 今天，H&amp;M、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NKE\">$耐克(NKE)$</a> 、巴宝莉、玛莎等欧美服装品牌，先后宣布了禁用新疆棉的公告，彻底把新疆棉事件推向了高潮。 全国网友都在声讨这些品牌，众多明星纷纷解约代言，人民日报、新华社等官媒纷纷发文批评。 直到今天，政府机构也发出了严正警告： 事情发展到这种地步，已经是非常严重了，说明这不仅仅是一个简单的商业行为了。 如果你还不当回事儿的话，只能说反射弧太长了。 02&nbsp;美国的阴谋 美国从去年就开始造谣新疆棉是强迫劳动生产的，这个故事在他们身上发生过，所以这样便于他们像呆萌的西方民众传播谎言。事实上，北疆棉田机械化采摘率高达9成，南疆也在逐年增长，目前整个新疆棉田机械采摘率已达69.83%。 （新疆姑娘介绍新疆人民如何采棉） 美国造谣的原因，其实还是对中国贸易战的一部分。 我国是世界最大的纺织品生产国和出口国，产量占比超过世界的一半以上，服装出口额占全球的35%。纺织产业既是我国的支柱产业，也是具有明显国际竞争优势的产业。 同时，中国还是世界上最大的棉花生产国，生产量占比约为全世界的1/4。 由于，新疆独有的自然环境，新疆棉产量大、质量好，占到了全国总产量的84.9%。新疆棉是新疆的重要经济支柱，为新疆人民带了巨大的财富。 棉花又是纺织业最基础的原材料，所以美国打压新疆棉的阴谋，及其狠毒，可谓一箭多雕： 对中国在芯片等高科技进行打压的同时，又对中国支柱产业进行打压； 打击我国新疆人民的收入，为分裂我国埋下伏笔； 挑起中国和欧洲国家的矛盾，阻断《中欧全面投资协定》； 打压中国纺织业，侧面利好东南亚纺织业，伺机阻断《RCEP》（东盟自贸协定）； 美国是世界第三大棉花生产国，但他们几乎没有纺织业，82%的产量出口，是世界最大","text":"01 事态有多严重 今天，H&M、$耐克(NKE)$ 、巴宝莉、玛莎等欧美服装品牌，先后宣布了禁用新疆棉的公告，彻底把新疆棉事件推向了高潮。 全国网友都在声讨这些品牌，众多明星纷纷解约代言，人民日报、新华社等官媒纷纷发文批评。 直到今天，政府机构也发出了严正警告： 事情发展到这种地步，已经是非常严重了，说明这不仅仅是一个简单的商业行为了。 如果你还不当回事儿的话，只能说反射弧太长了。 02 美国的阴谋 美国从去年就开始造谣新疆棉是强迫劳动生产的，这个故事在他们身上发生过，所以这样便于他们像呆萌的西方民众传播谎言。事实上，北疆棉田机械化采摘率高达9成，南疆也在逐年增长，目前整个新疆棉田机械采摘率已达69.83%。 （新疆姑娘介绍新疆人民如何采棉） 美国造谣的原因，其实还是对中国贸易战的一部分。 我国是世界最大的纺织品生产国和出口国，产量占比超过世界的一半以上，服装出口额占全球的35%。纺织产业既是我国的支柱产业，也是具有明显国际竞争优势的产业。 同时，中国还是世界上最大的棉花生产国，生产量占比约为全世界的1/4。 由于，新疆独有的自然环境，新疆棉产量大、质量好，占到了全国总产量的84.9%。新疆棉是新疆的重要经济支柱，为新疆人民带了巨大的财富。 棉花又是纺织业最基础的原材料，所以美国打压新疆棉的阴谋，及其狠毒，可谓一箭多雕： 对中国在芯片等高科技进行打压的同时，又对中国支柱产业进行打压； 打击我国新疆人民的收入，为分裂我国埋下伏笔； 挑起中国和欧洲国家的矛盾，阻断《中欧全面投资协定》； 打压中国纺织业，侧面利好东南亚纺织业，伺机阻断《RCEP》（东盟自贸协定）； 美国是世界第三大棉花生产国，但他们几乎没有纺织业，82%的产量出口，是世界最大","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c67ac7cdd362f95c1fe88916b98ad4b2","width":"845","height":"125"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065953e17cc9e1b9dfb98d26dcdcdf87","width":"857","height":"57"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a916f28958a89f395bb45542235b27b","width":"659","height":"469"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358383415","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":354515219,"gmtCreate":1617187554131,"gmtModify":1617187554131,"author":{"id":"3573786406987891","authorId":"3573786406987891","name":"稳赚波波熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45976b69f87c23b8b7d78dd492e2785c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573786406987891","authorIdStr":"3573786406987891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"差不多这波可以了","listText":"差不多这波可以了","text":"差不多这波可以了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354515219","repostId":"356261741","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":356261741,"gmtCreate":1616779871283,"gmtModify":1616798144808,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548388348794551","authorIdStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"中概股持续杀跌，抄底还是敬畏市场？","htmlText":"已经凌晨一点了，看着中概股的持续杀跌，总归还是有点震惊，以前的时候A股的白马股杀起来，一波调整跌三五十个点，感觉咋这么狠，但是看完最近美股的杀跌，感觉A股那哪里是下跌，美股这调整，极端的一天杀到位，比如雾芯科技，当然这个主要是因为政策的影响，那么就换一个，三天腰斩的，比如说腾讯音乐和爱奇艺，还有百度虽然没有腰斩吧，但是估计也不远了。关于抄底这个事情，我对中概股的不好预感已经持续一段时间了，很久没买美股了，来美股整一年，从刚开始的各种尝试，到最后集中精力玩中概股，完整的吃到了蔚来的一大波涨幅，差不多有6倍，也抓到了老虎证券2个月七八倍的行情，刚开始时候以为是自己悟道了，后来慢慢觉得，这应该是美股的流动性溢价以及美联储的核动力印钞机。真正的不好预期大概是从1月底开始的，那会百度一波拉升，从250直接拉到了350，我承认我卖飞了，因为我梭哈了老虎证券，百度的这一波拉升让我感觉到了A股的那种投机味道，疯狂的狠，一个几百亿美金的股票，每天晚上几个点的拉升，到最后直接十几个点的疯长。总感觉哪里不对劲，当然我也不是一个开始就空仓了，在老虎回调的过程中尝试了几次，就彻底放弃了，因为我把钱都取走了。一年十几倍，这大概比我过去几年炒股的收益率都高。虽然本金不多，但是，这种成就感，太过瘾了，然后美股慢慢的开始调整了，中概股的调整，逐渐开始异常，从跟随指数调整到中概股板块独自调整，到现在每天晚上杀两个祭天。从炒美股开始没多久，我就树立了一个信念，美股永不抄底，尤其是去年12月份的时候好好复盘了一下中概股，发现很多股票一旦开始回调，经常就是万劫不复，再也没有起来。这个市场真的过于残酷了，好的捧上天，但是不好的股票可能会被永远摁在地上摩擦，所以，美股不抄底，永不抄底，要买也要等待右侧的机会，抄底成功一次不一定会血赚，但是错一次可能就是腰斩，有一个极端一点的例子，雾芯科技，这个股票我关注了超级","listText":"已经凌晨一点了，看着中概股的持续杀跌，总归还是有点震惊，以前的时候A股的白马股杀起来，一波调整跌三五十个点，感觉咋这么狠，但是看完最近美股的杀跌，感觉A股那哪里是下跌，美股这调整，极端的一天杀到位，比如雾芯科技，当然这个主要是因为政策的影响，那么就换一个，三天腰斩的，比如说腾讯音乐和爱奇艺，还有百度虽然没有腰斩吧，但是估计也不远了。关于抄底这个事情，我对中概股的不好预感已经持续一段时间了，很久没买美股了，来美股整一年，从刚开始的各种尝试，到最后集中精力玩中概股，完整的吃到了蔚来的一大波涨幅，差不多有6倍，也抓到了老虎证券2个月七八倍的行情，刚开始时候以为是自己悟道了，后来慢慢觉得，这应该是美股的流动性溢价以及美联储的核动力印钞机。真正的不好预期大概是从1月底开始的，那会百度一波拉升，从250直接拉到了350，我承认我卖飞了，因为我梭哈了老虎证券，百度的这一波拉升让我感觉到了A股的那种投机味道，疯狂的狠，一个几百亿美金的股票，每天晚上几个点的拉升，到最后直接十几个点的疯长。总感觉哪里不对劲，当然我也不是一个开始就空仓了，在老虎回调的过程中尝试了几次，就彻底放弃了，因为我把钱都取走了。一年十几倍，这大概比我过去几年炒股的收益率都高。虽然本金不多，但是，这种成就感，太过瘾了，然后美股慢慢的开始调整了，中概股的调整，逐渐开始异常，从跟随指数调整到中概股板块独自调整，到现在每天晚上杀两个祭天。从炒美股开始没多久，我就树立了一个信念，美股永不抄底，尤其是去年12月份的时候好好复盘了一下中概股，发现很多股票一旦开始回调，经常就是万劫不复，再也没有起来。这个市场真的过于残酷了，好的捧上天，但是不好的股票可能会被永远摁在地上摩擦，所以，美股不抄底，永不抄底，要买也要等待右侧的机会，抄底成功一次不一定会血赚，但是错一次可能就是腰斩，有一个极端一点的例子，雾芯科技，这个股票我关注了超级","text":"已经凌晨一点了，看着中概股的持续杀跌，总归还是有点震惊，以前的时候A股的白马股杀起来，一波调整跌三五十个点，感觉咋这么狠，但是看完最近美股的杀跌，感觉A股那哪里是下跌，美股这调整，极端的一天杀到位，比如雾芯科技，当然这个主要是因为政策的影响，那么就换一个，三天腰斩的，比如说腾讯音乐和爱奇艺，还有百度虽然没有腰斩吧，但是估计也不远了。关于抄底这个事情，我对中概股的不好预感已经持续一段时间了，很久没买美股了，来美股整一年，从刚开始的各种尝试，到最后集中精力玩中概股，完整的吃到了蔚来的一大波涨幅，差不多有6倍，也抓到了老虎证券2个月七八倍的行情，刚开始时候以为是自己悟道了，后来慢慢觉得，这应该是美股的流动性溢价以及美联储的核动力印钞机。真正的不好预期大概是从1月底开始的，那会百度一波拉升，从250直接拉到了350，我承认我卖飞了，因为我梭哈了老虎证券，百度的这一波拉升让我感觉到了A股的那种投机味道，疯狂的狠，一个几百亿美金的股票，每天晚上几个点的拉升，到最后直接十几个点的疯长。总感觉哪里不对劲，当然我也不是一个开始就空仓了，在老虎回调的过程中尝试了几次，就彻底放弃了，因为我把钱都取走了。一年十几倍，这大概比我过去几年炒股的收益率都高。虽然本金不多，但是，这种成就感，太过瘾了，然后美股慢慢的开始调整了，中概股的调整，逐渐开始异常，从跟随指数调整到中概股板块独自调整，到现在每天晚上杀两个祭天。从炒美股开始没多久，我就树立了一个信念，美股永不抄底，尤其是去年12月份的时候好好复盘了一下中概股，发现很多股票一旦开始回调，经常就是万劫不复，再也没有起来。这个市场真的过于残酷了，好的捧上天，但是不好的股票可能会被永远摁在地上摩擦，所以，美股不抄底，永不抄底，要买也要等待右侧的机会，抄底成功一次不一定会血赚，但是错一次可能就是腰斩，有一个极端一点的例子，雾芯科技，这个股票我关注了超级","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079f56a7950ea85321e743bd5cd96ee3","width":"688","height":"476"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db4fefb835e7cf939430681f7a3a6da","width":"688","height":"255"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e64da3e698ebeadff68cc2a162e0d1f2","width":"688","height":"454"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356261741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":803034295,"gmtCreate":1627396070917,"gmtModify":1627396070917,"author":{"id":"357378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11:07","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154549598","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七","content":"<p>截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。</p>\n<p><b>在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。</b>为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。</p>\n<p>什么是违背常识呢？这里，我给大家举几个常见的例子。</p>\n<p><b>第一，对商业模式的本质缺乏分析和认知。</b>很多人都听过WeWork，作为共享办公空间的龙头，WeWork曾经一度备受资本市场的青睐，大名鼎鼎的软银集团也投资了WeWork，估值最高曾到达470亿美元。但2019年，WeWork却上市失败，估值从高点回落至100亿到150亿。</p>\n<p>为什么连软银也折翼WeWork呢？<b>我认为，主要原因在于很多投资者对Wework商业模式的本质认知有偏差。</b>哪怕WeWork再把自己包装成一个互联网公司，但从本质上来说，它还是通过对固定资产的经营和提供增值服务来实现盈利，也就是“二房东”的商业模式，因为它既不符合双边平台效应，也不符合互联网赢家通吃的特征。</p>\n<p>因此，WeWork的商业模式既不是互联网经济，也不是高科技企业，而是属于房地产经济，这也决定了其运用互联网思维，通过“烧钱”来获取客户，在逻辑上是错误的。</p>\n<p>2018年，当时的WeWork如日中天，我们有机会投资入股。但当我们看到WeWork的惊人估值时，当时也充满疑惑，为什么一个“二房东”模式的公司估值这么贵？后来因为一些技术性原因，我们没有入股，事后来看还是运气很好。</p>\n<p><b>第二，只看需求侧逻辑（行业空间）不看供给侧逻辑（竞争格局）。</b>在股票投资中，很多人可能会优先选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业。选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业当然没有错，但不能把需求侧逻辑作为唯一的判断依据，如果忽略供给侧的分析，同样会违背常识。当一个行业高速成长，行业内的企业可以获得超额利润时，想要进入这个行业的人必然很多，竞争一定会变得激烈，最终使得超额利润消失。但是，如果这个行业具有良好的供给侧竞争格局，可以帮助里边的企业长时间内获得超额利润。</p>\n<p>美国汽车行业的发展始于19世纪80年代，由于汽油和内燃机的发明和应用，亨利·福特成功地研发出第一辆四轮车，从而开启了美国汽车的大门。随着美国经济的迅速发展，汽车行业迎来快速爆发期，1965年美国汽车销量就首次突破1000万辆，而我国是到了2009年才突破这个数据，回到100年前，汽车行业无疑是最具爆发潜力的行业。</p>\n<p>需求端的爆发带动美国的车企如雨后春笋般出现，美国先后出现了上千家汽车厂商。但到了现在，美国历史上曾经出现过的绝大部分汽车厂商已经不复存在，现在的三大汽车巨头中（通用汽车、福特、克莱斯勒），除了福特，全部破产过一遍。</p>\n<p>现在，市场对电动汽车的追逐可以类比于美国汽车行业的高速发展期，从需求端来看无疑是一个高速增长的行业，行业未来空间很大。但同时我们也需要注意到行业内的汽车品牌众多，资本不断涌入这个行业，最终究竟谁能真正脱颖而出是一个值得我们思考的问题。</p>\n<p>对于股票投资来说，行业高增长固然是好事，但同时我们不能不看行业的竞争格局，因为只有良好的竞争格局才能帮助企业持续稳定地获取超额利润。</p>\n<p><b>第三，忘记估值和安全边际。</b>安全边际是重要的投资原则之一，用巴菲特的话说，安全边际就是用4毛钱的价格去购买价值1元钱的股票。预测未来很难，而安全边际的存在可以帮助我们降低预测未来的难度，并且安全边际越大，决策的容错度越高，投资者的潜在投资回报率也越高。相反，高估值不仅会降低投资者未来的投资回报率，而且还会降低决策的容错能力，一旦判断错误，股价将会迎来戴维斯双杀。</p>\n<p>但是，许多投资者在投资中经常会忘记估值和安全边际，这也是违背常识的表现。在上世纪70年代初，美股的“漂亮50”得到投资者的青睐，估值得到大幅提升，很多公司的估值被推升到80多倍、90多倍。而估值泡沫破灭之后，很多公司的市盈率回落到9到18倍。如果投资者在高点买入“漂亮50”公司的股票，将会在很长一段时间内不赚钱甚至亏钱。</p>\n<p>在A股，这样的故事也在重演。2020年底到2021年初，以茅台为代表的基金抱团重仓的“核心资产”，估值普遍高达60、70倍甚至100倍以上；2021年春节后抱团瓦解，很多股票出现大幅度下跌。以贵州茅台为例，2021年2月10日贵州茅台的动态市盈率最高达70多倍，到2021年7月底贵州茅台的动态市盈率回落到40倍左右。</p>\n<p><b>第四，违反能力圈原则。</b>能力圈原则也是重要的投资原则之一，但却被很多人所忽视，大家经常在没有彻底搞懂一家公司的情况下就草率买入。巴菲特和芒格一直坚持能力圈这一原则，只买自己能看得懂的股票，对于自己能力圈之外的股票坚持不碰。</p>\n<p><b>他们把公司分为三类：可以投资的、不能投资的、太难理解的。</b>对他们来说，大部分公司被归到“不能投资”和“太难理解”之列，例如制药和高科技行业他们就归为“太难理解”的行业，这也导致他们错失了很多伟大的投资机会。但即便如此，巴菲特60多年来的年化投资收益率依然维持在20%以上。相反，大多数投资者投资失败的一个重要原因，是他们违反了能力圈原则，买了自己能力圈之外的股票。</p>\n<p>现实生活中，还有很多违背常识的案例，哪怕是机构投资者，有时候也会犯常识性错误，所以，如何强调“重视常识、回归常识”都不为过。那为什么很多投资者包括“专业投资者”经常做出违反常识的决策呢？</p>\n<p>我认为主要有以下三个方面的原因：</p>\n<p><b>第一，缺乏系统的决策框架。</b>投资的方法论有很多，有价值投资的、有趋势投资的、有量化投资的，都能赚到钱。但不管什么样的方法论，都需要形成一个逻辑自洽、回测合格、符合未来趋势的严密框架。</p>\n<p>逻辑自洽是有效投资策略的基本前提，投资决策的逻辑要能够形成一个闭环；个例的成功投资不属于有效的投资策略，只有能通过大样本检验的投资策略才是有效的；大样本回测合格也仅仅证明在过去有效，而在未来能否继续有效，还要看这个投资策略是否符合资本市场的发展趋势。</p>\n<p>如果没有符合上述标准的决策框架，决策就会很随意，也不可复制，但很多投资者没有一套属于自己的决策框架。</p>\n<p><b>第二，受短期业绩压力的影响。</b>很多基金经理虽然很清楚长期投资、价值投资的好处，但无奈他们面对的基民很看重短期业绩排名，或者受不了短期的业绩波动，当基金投资组合不适应当前的市场风格业绩表现不好时，可能会引发投资者的大量赎回。投资者的非理性行为会给基金经理施加压力，迫使他们为了争取更好的短期业绩而去适应市场、追逐市场热点，甚至被迫参与博弈交易，做出有违常识的决策。</p>\n<p><b>第三，受非理性决策行为的影响。</b>传统的经济和金融学理论认为，人是理性的，并在此基础上提出了有效市场假说。但在现实生活中，人并非理性，甚至大部分时间是非理性的。</p>\n<p>曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的丹尼尔·卡尼曼在他的名著《思考，快与慢》中把人的决策系统分为系统1和系统2，系统1是一个快速的、自动的、潜意识的，以及通常受情绪驱动的认知系统，迅速做出决策但经常出错；而系统2则相反，它的运作是缓慢的、受控制的、耗费脑力资源的，用系统2决策相对缓慢但不容易出错。</p>\n<p>对很多人来说，用系统1决策是天性，他们没有培养出主动应用系统2来思考的习惯。因此，人们经常做出非理性决策而不自知。在股票投资中，即使投资理论和知识在不断完善，但由于人性上的弱点，人们经常不可避免地会做出一些非理性行为，即使是机构投资者也无法幸免。</p>\n<p>常识在价值投资中至关重要，为此我在2019年出版了《长期的力量》一书，提供了一个基本面投研的基本框架，由中信出版社出版，出版后深受好评，在豆瓣等平台上的评分也不低。这是一本入门级的价值投资书籍，深度还有欠缺。为了弥补这一不足，我写了《常识的力量》，很快也将由中信出版社出版。</p>\n<p>这本书根据我多年的从业经验，总结了价值投资所需要遵循的常识，包括关于行业竞争的常识、关于公司竞争力的常识、关于公司估值的常识、关于投资策略的常识等，不仅帮助普通投资者树立价值投资的理念，更帮助普通投资者回归投资的本质，构建完善的价值投资体系。</p>\n<p>另外还总结了投资者决策中常见的心理误区，应如何克服人性的恐惧和贪婪，并罗列了价值投资者的常识清单。</p>\n<p>本书中的“常识”，是我自己对价值投资的思考和理解，但未必是所有人的认知。比如对于“行业竞争格局和行业成长空间哪个更重要”这个话题，大家由于投资哲学和投资方法论的差异，结论是完全不一样的。但不管如何，我希望这些“常识”，能帮助大家提供一个深度思考的视角，帮助大家避免思维上的盲区。</p>","source":"lsy1571362674393","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么只有少数投资者，能在股市中赚到钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 11:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd><strong>秦朔朋友圈</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。\n什么是违背常识呢？...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654147000&idx=2&sn=b32c9f0f6825a3d6c733096cb4625f99&chksm=84834becb3f4c2fac91362ce750e26b5fc2df8f89167060afe44c195864fe9c992e0eff25279&mpshare=1&scene=1&srcid=08247zGBDFqNX4kVlixZBNi7&sharer_sharetime=1629764203649&sharer_shareid=5ec3942ede706772360a252a7c21f39b&version=3.1.2.6203&platform=mac#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154549598","content_text":"截至2021年6月30日，我国资本市场个人投资者总数已达1.88亿，占投资者总数的比例达99.77%，占全国总人口的比例12.8%。\n在这么多投资者当中，真正在股市投资中赚到钱的可能是少数，所以有“七亏两平一赚”的说法。为什么这么多投资者投资亏损，原因都是违背了常识。如果我们投资中违背常识，虽有可能因为运气好而阶段性取得好业绩，但长期没有常识、不尊重常识，一定会输得一塌糊涂。\n什么是违背常识呢？这里，我给大家举几个常见的例子。\n第一，对商业模式的本质缺乏分析和认知。很多人都听过WeWork，作为共享办公空间的龙头，WeWork曾经一度备受资本市场的青睐，大名鼎鼎的软银集团也投资了WeWork，估值最高曾到达470亿美元。但2019年，WeWork却上市失败，估值从高点回落至100亿到150亿。\n为什么连软银也折翼WeWork呢？我认为，主要原因在于很多投资者对Wework商业模式的本质认知有偏差。哪怕WeWork再把自己包装成一个互联网公司，但从本质上来说，它还是通过对固定资产的经营和提供增值服务来实现盈利，也就是“二房东”的商业模式，因为它既不符合双边平台效应，也不符合互联网赢家通吃的特征。\n因此，WeWork的商业模式既不是互联网经济，也不是高科技企业，而是属于房地产经济，这也决定了其运用互联网思维，通过“烧钱”来获取客户，在逻辑上是错误的。\n2018年，当时的WeWork如日中天，我们有机会投资入股。但当我们看到WeWork的惊人估值时，当时也充满疑惑，为什么一个“二房东”模式的公司估值这么贵？后来因为一些技术性原因，我们没有入股，事后来看还是运气很好。\n第二，只看需求侧逻辑（行业空间）不看供给侧逻辑（竞争格局）。在股票投资中，很多人可能会优先选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业。选择成长性高、想象空间大的行业当然没有错，但不能把需求侧逻辑作为唯一的判断依据，如果忽略供给侧的分析，同样会违背常识。当一个行业高速成长，行业内的企业可以获得超额利润时，想要进入这个行业的人必然很多，竞争一定会变得激烈，最终使得超额利润消失。但是，如果这个行业具有良好的供给侧竞争格局，可以帮助里边的企业长时间内获得超额利润。\n美国汽车行业的发展始于19世纪80年代，由于汽油和内燃机的发明和应用，亨利·福特成功地研发出第一辆四轮车，从而开启了美国汽车的大门。随着美国经济的迅速发展，汽车行业迎来快速爆发期，1965年美国汽车销量就首次突破1000万辆，而我国是到了2009年才突破这个数据，回到100年前，汽车行业无疑是最具爆发潜力的行业。\n需求端的爆发带动美国的车企如雨后春笋般出现，美国先后出现了上千家汽车厂商。但到了现在，美国历史上曾经出现过的绝大部分汽车厂商已经不复存在，现在的三大汽车巨头中（通用汽车、福特、克莱斯勒），除了福特，全部破产过一遍。\n现在，市场对电动汽车的追逐可以类比于美国汽车行业的高速发展期，从需求端来看无疑是一个高速增长的行业，行业未来空间很大。但同时我们也需要注意到行业内的汽车品牌众多，资本不断涌入这个行业，最终究竟谁能真正脱颖而出是一个值得我们思考的问题。\n对于股票投资来说，行业高增长固然是好事，但同时我们不能不看行业的竞争格局，因为只有良好的竞争格局才能帮助企业持续稳定地获取超额利润。\n第三，忘记估值和安全边际。安全边际是重要的投资原则之一，用巴菲特的话说，安全边际就是用4毛钱的价格去购买价值1元钱的股票。预测未来很难，而安全边际的存在可以帮助我们降低预测未来的难度，并且安全边际越大，决策的容错度越高，投资者的潜在投资回报率也越高。相反，高估值不仅会降低投资者未来的投资回报率，而且还会降低决策的容错能力，一旦判断错误，股价将会迎来戴维斯双杀。\n但是，许多投资者在投资中经常会忘记估值和安全边际，这也是违背常识的表现。在上世纪70年代初，美股的“漂亮50”得到投资者的青睐，估值得到大幅提升，很多公司的估值被推升到80多倍、90多倍。而估值泡沫破灭之后，很多公司的市盈率回落到9到18倍。如果投资者在高点买入“漂亮50”公司的股票，将会在很长一段时间内不赚钱甚至亏钱。\n在A股，这样的故事也在重演。2020年底到2021年初，以茅台为代表的基金抱团重仓的“核心资产”，估值普遍高达60、70倍甚至100倍以上；2021年春节后抱团瓦解，很多股票出现大幅度下跌。以贵州茅台为例，2021年2月10日贵州茅台的动态市盈率最高达70多倍，到2021年7月底贵州茅台的动态市盈率回落到40倍左右。\n第四，违反能力圈原则。能力圈原则也是重要的投资原则之一，但却被很多人所忽视，大家经常在没有彻底搞懂一家公司的情况下就草率买入。巴菲特和芒格一直坚持能力圈这一原则，只买自己能看得懂的股票，对于自己能力圈之外的股票坚持不碰。\n他们把公司分为三类：可以投资的、不能投资的、太难理解的。对他们来说，大部分公司被归到“不能投资”和“太难理解”之列，例如制药和高科技行业他们就归为“太难理解”的行业，这也导致他们错失了很多伟大的投资机会。但即便如此，巴菲特60多年来的年化投资收益率依然维持在20%以上。相反，大多数投资者投资失败的一个重要原因，是他们违反了能力圈原则，买了自己能力圈之外的股票。\n现实生活中，还有很多违背常识的案例，哪怕是机构投资者，有时候也会犯常识性错误，所以，如何强调“重视常识、回归常识”都不为过。那为什么很多投资者包括“专业投资者”经常做出违反常识的决策呢？\n我认为主要有以下三个方面的原因：\n第一，缺乏系统的决策框架。投资的方法论有很多，有价值投资的、有趋势投资的、有量化投资的，都能赚到钱。但不管什么样的方法论，都需要形成一个逻辑自洽、回测合格、符合未来趋势的严密框架。\n逻辑自洽是有效投资策略的基本前提，投资决策的逻辑要能够形成一个闭环；个例的成功投资不属于有效的投资策略，只有能通过大样本检验的投资策略才是有效的；大样本回测合格也仅仅证明在过去有效，而在未来能否继续有效，还要看这个投资策略是否符合资本市场的发展趋势。\n如果没有符合上述标准的决策框架，决策就会很随意，也不可复制，但很多投资者没有一套属于自己的决策框架。\n第二，受短期业绩压力的影响。很多基金经理虽然很清楚长期投资、价值投资的好处，但无奈他们面对的基民很看重短期业绩排名，或者受不了短期的业绩波动，当基金投资组合不适应当前的市场风格业绩表现不好时，可能会引发投资者的大量赎回。投资者的非理性行为会给基金经理施加压力，迫使他们为了争取更好的短期业绩而去适应市场、追逐市场热点，甚至被迫参与博弈交易，做出有违常识的决策。\n第三，受非理性决策行为的影响。传统的经济和金融学理论认为，人是理性的，并在此基础上提出了有效市场假说。但在现实生活中，人并非理性，甚至大部分时间是非理性的。\n曾获得诺贝尔经济学奖的丹尼尔·卡尼曼在他的名著《思考，快与慢》中把人的决策系统分为系统1和系统2，系统1是一个快速的、自动的、潜意识的，以及通常受情绪驱动的认知系统，迅速做出决策但经常出错；而系统2则相反，它的运作是缓慢的、受控制的、耗费脑力资源的，用系统2决策相对缓慢但不容易出错。\n对很多人来说，用系统1决策是天性，他们没有培养出主动应用系统2来思考的习惯。因此，人们经常做出非理性决策而不自知。在股票投资中，即使投资理论和知识在不断完善，但由于人性上的弱点，人们经常不可避免地会做出一些非理性行为，即使是机构投资者也无法幸免。\n常识在价值投资中至关重要，为此我在2019年出版了《长期的力量》一书，提供了一个基本面投研的基本框架，由中信出版社出版，出版后深受好评，在豆瓣等平台上的评分也不低。这是一本入门级的价值投资书籍，深度还有欠缺。为了弥补这一不足，我写了《常识的力量》，很快也将由中信出版社出版。\n这本书根据我多年的从业经验，总结了价值投资所需要遵循的常识，包括关于行业竞争的常识、关于公司竞争力的常识、关于公司估值的常识、关于投资策略的常识等，不仅帮助普通投资者树立价值投资的理念，更帮助普通投资者回归投资的本质，构建完善的价值投资体系。\n另外还总结了投资者决策中常见的心理误区，应如何克服人性的恐惧和贪婪，并罗列了价值投资者的常识清单。\n本书中的“常识”，是我自己对价值投资的思考和理解，但未必是所有人的认知。比如对于“行业竞争格局和行业成长空间哪个更重要”这个话题，大家由于投资哲学和投资方法论的差异，结论是完全不一样的。但不管如何，我希望这些“常识”，能帮助大家提供一个深度思考的视角，帮助大家避免思维上的盲区。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150818376,"gmtCreate":1624892471995,"gmtModify":1624892471995,"author":{"id":"3573786406987891","authorId":"3573786406987891","name":"稳赚波波熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45976b69f87c23b8b7d78dd492e2785c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786406987891","idStr":"3573786406987891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是唯一一只我买了让我亏钱的新能源汽车股票，再一看又太高了，拜拜吧😪","listText":"这是唯一一只我买了让我亏钱的新能源汽车股票，再一看又太高了，拜拜吧😪","text":"这是唯一一只我买了让我亏钱的新能源汽车股票，再一看又太高了，拜拜吧😪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0126722df9bbaf3e4e86c8546c7287b","width":"1080","height":"2584"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150818376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":124279636,"gmtCreate":1624769526125,"gmtModify":1624769526125,"author":{"id":"3573786406987891","authorId":"3573786406987891","name":"稳赚波波熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45976b69f87c23b8b7d78dd492e2785c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573786406987891","idStr":"3573786406987891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上汽早就尝试过类似混改，赛可电子商务(车享/家)，东风汽车效果待观察，不会好过上汽吧。","listText":"上汽早就尝试过类似混改，赛可电子商务(车享/家)，东风汽车效果待观察，不会好过上汽吧。","text":"上汽早就尝试过类似混改，赛可电子商务(车享/家)，东风汽车效果待观察，不会好过上汽吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124279636","repostId":"2146175009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2146175009","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1624717219,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2146175009?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 22:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"岚图汽车成立独立法人公司 员工持股超10%格隆汇6月26日丨岚图汽车成立独立法人公司，公司注册名为“岚图汽车科技有限公司”，由东风汽车集团股份有限公司和岚图汽车核心员工持股平台共同出资成立，其中核心员工持股占比10%以上。","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146175009","media":"格隆汇","summary":"岚图汽车成立独立法人公司 员工持股超10%格隆汇6月26日丨岚图汽车成立独立法人公司，公司注册名为“岚图汽车科技有限公司”，由东风汽车集团股份有限公司和岚图汽车核心员工持股平台共同出资成立，其中核心员","content":"<html><body><p>岚图汽车成立独立法人公司 员工持股超10%格隆汇6月26日丨岚图汽车成立独立法人公司，公司注册名为“岚图汽车科技有限公司”，由东风汽车集团股份有限公司和岚图汽车核心员工持股平台共同出资成立，其中核心员工持股占比10%以上。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7x24快讯</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600006":"东风股份","00489":"东风集团股份"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2146175009","content_text":"岚图汽车成立独立法人公司 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