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Normalman
2021-04-19
$星盛商业(06668)$
物业小而美,看了没下手,没想到这么快就启动了。
Normalman
2021-04-18
$科德教育(300192)$
20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。
Normalman
2021-04-08
$众安在线(06060)$
$众安在线(06060)$
成交量萎缩太厉害了,减仓
Normalman
2021-03-13
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
如果不出意外的话,肯定是老鼠仓。
Normalman
2021-03-10
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
明显有资金进去了,估计基本面有改善,猜测股价最少有五倍空间。
Normalman
2021-03-02
$海底捞(06862)$
就这点???
Normalman
2021-02-26
$RLX科技(RLX)$
坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。
Normalman
2021-02-23
$RLX科技(RLX)$
估值应该很快回归,就算20年净利润两个亿,那就是三千万美元,给一百倍市盈率,市值三十亿年美元。而目前总市值三百亿,目前悦刻扩张的很厉害,都是私人加盟,不知道开店的朋友生意怎么样。总体来说,应该是60后70后烟民比重比较大,8090虽然更愿意接受电子烟,但是人口数量不是一个量级,所以从这一点就不能简单和传统烟草行业对标。不知道什么时候海外市场能开花?
Normalman
2021-02-23
$众安在线(06060)$
看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。
Normalman
2021-02-12
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
根本没有量啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300192\">$科德教育(300192)$</a> 20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","text":"$科德教育(300192)$ 20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379235903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348033707,"gmtCreate":1617866009209,"gmtModify":1617866009209,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>成交量萎缩太厉害了,减仓","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>成交量萎缩太厉害了,减仓","text":"$众安在线(06060)$ $众安在线(06060)$成交量萎缩太厉害了,减仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348033707","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326383684,"gmtCreate":1615594845448,"gmtModify":1703491354830,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>如果不出意外的话,肯定是老鼠仓。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>如果不出意外的话,肯定是老鼠仓。","text":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$如果不出意外的话,肯定是老鼠仓。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326383684","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321303864,"gmtCreate":1615391539158,"gmtModify":1703488456733,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a> 明显有资金进去了,估计基本面有改善,猜测股价最少有五倍空间。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a> 明显有资金进去了,估计基本面有改善,猜测股价最少有五倍空间。","text":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$ 明显有资金进去了,估计基本面有改善,猜测股价最少有五倍空间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321303864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458169345638322","authorId":"3458169345638322","name":"翡冷翠....","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603f73408369135d75286c9b365403ec","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"想多了兄弟","text":"想多了兄弟","html":"想多了兄弟"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362519884,"gmtCreate":1614648524648,"gmtModify":1703479302795,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">$海底捞(06862)$</a>就这点???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">$海底捞(06862)$</a>就这点???","text":"$海底捞(06862)$就这点???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362519884","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368106557,"gmtCreate":1614297727679,"gmtModify":1703475944509,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368106557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545737920221967","authorId":"3545737920221967","name":"雨后初晴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c06a3867f8d5f618eae94ea82fb441b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"13块 差不多了","text":"13块 差不多了","html":"13块 差不多了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369539521,"gmtCreate":1614056146363,"gmtModify":1614056146363,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>估值应该很快回归,就算20年净利润两个亿,那就是三千万美元,给一百倍市盈率,市值三十亿年美元。而目前总市值三百亿,目前悦刻扩张的很厉害,都是私人加盟,不知道开店的朋友生意怎么样。总体来说,应该是60后70后烟民比重比较大,8090虽然更愿意接受电子烟,但是人口数量不是一个量级,所以从这一点就不能简单和传统烟草行业对标。不知道什么时候海外市场能开花?","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","text":"$众安在线(06060)$看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369673809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"136519691706834","authorId":"136519691706834","name":"彤画故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e7b57b50d137567f8f736909458c37","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"众安和加密货币有关系?","text":"众安和加密货币有关系?","html":"众安和加密货币有关系?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388500124,"gmtCreate":1613060312768,"gmtModify":1703769091959,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 根本没有量啊","listText":"<a 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明显有资金进去了,估计基本面有改善,猜测股价最少有五倍空间。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321303864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458169345638322","authorId":"3458169345638322","name":"翡冷翠....","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603f73408369135d75286c9b365403ec","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"想多了兄弟","text":"想多了兄弟","html":"想多了兄弟"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368106557,"gmtCreate":1614297727679,"gmtModify":1703475944509,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$</a>坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$坐稳了,小数点要往前挪一位。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368106557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3545737920221967","authorId":"3545737920221967","name":"雨后初晴","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c06a3867f8d5f618eae94ea82fb441b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"13块 差不多了","text":"13块 差不多了","html":"13块 差不多了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348033707,"gmtCreate":1617866009209,"gmtModify":1617866009209,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06060\">$众安在线(06060)$</a>看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","text":"$众安在线(06060)$看起来得跌回去, 木头姐选中众安是因为加密货币的原因,自己做多比特币,然后买入加密货币相关股票,最后拉高套现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369673809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"136519691706834","authorId":"136519691706834","name":"彤画故事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9e7b57b50d137567f8f736909458c37","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"众安和加密货币有关系?","text":"众安和加密货币有关系?","html":"众安和加密货币有关系?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":379235903,"gmtCreate":1618742592102,"gmtModify":1618742592102,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300192\">$科德教育(300192)$</a> 20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300192\">$科德教育(300192)$</a> 20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","text":"$科德教育(300192)$ 20年收入约为1.75亿,河南毛坦计划21年秋1000万人,22年招收1800万人,预估学费2.5万,净利40%。22年保守收入约为1800万,天津旅外,人数约2000人,学费一万起步,有承诺协议,未来两年500万利润,故22年收入500万,拟合肥龙翔高复学校,学生1000人,学费三万左右,2022年保持生源不下滑,净利约为1200万(40%利率)。拟收购长沙经贸,2400人,学费为15800,2022年保持净利约为1516万。闻慧少林人数和学费是未知,填充以上数字中位数。2022年以上全部收购成功,且全部按计划实现盈利,且龙门补习k12业务并无下滑,2022年收入约为河南毛坦1800+天津旅外500+合肥龙翔1200+长沙经贸1516+闻慧1358+龙门17500=23874也就是2.38亿对比20年1.75增长36%。三十倍市盈率71.4,今天市值41.97,有70%的空间。这建立在1,以上全部收购成功。2,以上按照计划实现盈利。3,龙门主业利润不下滑。任何一个出现问题,都会在未来的这个估值上扣分,而且可能给不了三十倍。如果以上经营全部顺利,且成功收购经营更多学校。那么就会上调估值。买入价格就按照71.4*40%=28.56亿 对应价格9.61。其实按照20倍安全些,47.6*40%=19.04亿,也就是6.4。这是一个比较安全和理想的价格。卖点呢,在业绩没有改善的情况下,卖点选择两年后估值的150%,三十倍算71.4*150%=107.1亿,对应价格36.06。如果看到这个价格,可以选择卖出。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379235903","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326383684,"gmtCreate":1615594845448,"gmtModify":1703491354830,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYB\">$红黄蓝(RYB)$</a>如果不出意外的话,肯定是老鼠仓。","listText":"<a 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物业小而美,看了没下手,没想到这么快就启动了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373024241","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362519884,"gmtCreate":1614648524648,"gmtModify":1703479302795,"author":{"id":"3573388701784454","authorId":"3573388701784454","name":"Normalman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abe7e39fb022701f59d622bd1faf630","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">$海底捞(06862)$</a>就这点???","listText":"<a 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根本没有量啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388500124","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}