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7b7349c2
2021-11-20
$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$
[Sweats]
7b7349c2
2021-11-12
$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$
thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock
7b7349c2
2021-11-11
$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$
tomorrow burst???
7b7349c2
2021-11-10
$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$
earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow
7b7349c2
2021-11-05
$Zillow(Z)$
only after monster gains
7b7349c2
2021-11-05
//
@不是凯老师
:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。
抱歉,原内容已删除
7b7349c2
2021-11-05
$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$
only after monster gains
7b7349c2
2021-11-04
$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$
$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$
180 SHARES @ $36.99 LETS GO!
7b7349c2
2021-10-22
omg hahah
@SlowNana:
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$
When greed caught u... lessons learnt
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$ earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870036057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846823446,"gmtCreate":1636073991965,"gmtModify":1636073992168,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","text":"$Zillow(Z)$only after monster gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef8170891a1512c6760fe05eab675dd","width":"408","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846823446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846829730,"gmtCreate":1636073969684,"gmtModify":1636073969844,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","text":"//@不是凯老师:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846829730","repostId":"2180737766","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846820758,"gmtCreate":1636073908668,"gmtModify":1636073908864,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>only after monster gains","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>only after monster gains","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$only after monster gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef8170891a1512c6760fe05eab675dd","width":"408","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846820758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846990397,"gmtCreate":1636038141655,"gmtModify":1636038141815,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a> 180 SHARES @ $36.99 LETS GO!","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$</a> 180 SHARES @ $36.99 LETS GO!","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 180 SHARES @ $36.99 LETS GO!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846990397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853780650,"gmtCreate":1634839889910,"gmtModify":1634839890152,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"omg hahah","listText":"omg hahah","text":"omg hahah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853780650","repostId":"853717930","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":853717930,"gmtCreate":1634839562241,"gmtModify":1634839562491,"author":{"id":"3586490126059662","authorId":"3586490126059662","name":"SlowNana","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>When greed caught u... lessons learnt","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>When greed caught u... lessons learnt","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$When greed caught u... lessons learnt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4857583802058ce345cbdc668bcec230","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853717930","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":870191245,"gmtCreate":1636591730079,"gmtModify":1636591730182,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>tomorrow burst???","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$tomorrow burst???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba8e4ee715f956a389cd613b3cf6896","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870191245","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870036057,"gmtCreate":1636557440809,"gmtModify":1636557635455,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a> earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$ earnings after hours, stock move up by 50% tomorrow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870036057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876429263,"gmtCreate":1637342532929,"gmtModify":1637342533107,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>[Sweats] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$</a>[Sweats] ","text":"$Robinhood Markets, Inc.(HOOD)$[Sweats]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc6ad333345e21f7e39efbfc0d848b0a","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876429263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879355543,"gmtCreate":1636684380337,"gmtModify":1636684380526,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HNST\">$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$</a>thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","text":"$The Honest Company, Inc.(HNST)$thanks for the money i am moving away from the stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401a2e253ae43e2abbc34bc1f7ff7429","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879355543","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846823446,"gmtCreate":1636073991965,"gmtModify":1636073992168,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">$Zillow(Z)$</a>only after monster gains","text":"$Zillow(Z)$only after monster gains","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef8170891a1512c6760fe05eab675dd","width":"408","height":"2079"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846823446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846829730,"gmtCreate":1636073969684,"gmtModify":1636073969844,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3436022285116501\">@不是凯老师</a>:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","text":"//@不是凯老师:在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。而本文认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846829730","repostId":"2180737766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2180737766","pubTimestamp":1636006714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180737766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 14:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180737766","media":"智通财经网","summary":"让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式,一夜之间跌落神坛。","content":"<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>暴雷了!</p>\n<p>11月2日,Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer),当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%,然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。</p>\n<p>而就在短短几个月前,Zillow股价最高到达过$208,现在仅剩下$70!受到Zillow影响,同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor,股价也大幅跳水,一日之内下跌了15%。</p>\n<p>曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话,让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式,一夜之间跌落神坛。</p>\n<p>要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的,就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/919ec4a816f7d12f22d183a1acdbbde5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>一、信箱中的手写黄纸条</b></p>\n<p>不知道从何时开始,在美国和加拿大的很多地方,人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。</p>\n<p>纸条的大概意思就是,我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人,我看中了你的房子,我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子,而且可以很短的时间内就closing,感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。</p>\n<p>纸条上也经常会写上,把房子卖给投资人的好处:</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪,不需要支付任何经纪费用</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子,sold “as is”</p>\n<p>3、没有open house,不用showing</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0747b38fd4da9d03b208fb216ff230\" tg-width=\"718\" tg-height=\"930\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象,并且警告屋主们要小心,因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。</p>\n<p>媒体经过调查发现,这些所谓的“投资人”,往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。</p>\n<p>这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区,比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人,他们平时不会很关心房价,并不了解市场的具体情况,而且很多老人也为了省心,想到不用维修就可以卖房子,于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。</p>\n<p>而这些”投资人“买到房子后,给房子稍作装修,迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!</p>\n<p>很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后,才大呼上当,但是也于事无补了。</p>\n<p>简单说,要想靠这种方法赚钱,主要是两个途径:</p>\n<p>1、 尽量低于市场价,利用信息不对称,从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子</p>\n<p>2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长,这样能够以更高的价格卖出</p>\n<p><b>二、iBuyer模式的起源</b></p>\n<p>互联网房地产业,在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!</p>\n<p>创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity,并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia,获得了第一桶金。</p>\n<p>他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发,决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街,逼格显然是不够的。</p>\n<p>所以一顿操作猛如虎,把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上,并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面,立刻变得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上起来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00a03c976a5a3f9b6801da0ad29346f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>然而归根到底,他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子,就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是:</p>\n<p>1、不通过经纪,不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)</p>\n<p>2、不需要维修房子,sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)</p>\n<p>3、没有open house,不用showing</p>\n<p>这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?</p>\n<p><b>三、Zillow入局,iBuyer行业迎来春天</b></p>\n<p>虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立,但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷:</p>\n<p>1、 相对于传统房地产买卖,iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次),因此大大增加了交易的成本。</p>\n<p>在美国,一般来说一次房地产交易的成本,即使不考虑经纪费用,仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。</p>\n<p>2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱,是因为利用了信息不对称,可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量,所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的,iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。</p>\n<p>3、 互联网公司要获得高估值,就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了,因为互联网公司的特性,本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了,现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多,傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!</p>\n<p>幸运的是,上面也分析过,黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径,既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去,那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。</p>\n<p>下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c841800c9dc7cce8792e029459c5349\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>可以看到,自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始,美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。</p>\n<p>这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow,就将目光投向了iBuyer市场,在2018年强势入局,开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。</p>\n<p>Zillow也不是空手而来,凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术,直接把行业带上了新高度!</p>\n<p>有趣的是,Zillow入局的最大受益者,莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。</p>\n<p>借着Zillow的强大人气,Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金,又在2019年再融3亿,公司估值直接上升到38亿美金,并最终于2020年末成功上市。</p>\n<p><b>四、猎人成为猎物,资本反被韭菜们割了</b></p>\n<p>在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时,公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置,带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。</p>\n<p>他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标,要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业,并且大量扩招员工。</p>\n<p>这样的扩张,使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加:在暴雷前的第三季度,Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。</p>\n<p>这种增长,导致公司的股价快速飙升,从2020年初到2021年初的,公司的股价从$20多美金,飙升到$208美金,1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d5f57fe8fa58dda1eeb639fef94cfd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"847\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐,美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策,这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨,也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。</p>\n<p>然而,在表面的歌舞升平下,一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。</p>\n<p>Zillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化,这个AI定价技术,甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。</p>\n<p>不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨,这个AI模型也出现了问题:很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估,也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。</p>\n<p>在2018年之前,当Zestimate出现偏差的时候,地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻,告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后,事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。</p>\n<p>但是2018年以后,Zillow进入了iBuyer业务,也就是说,一旦Zestimate给出了估值,那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。</p>\n<p>这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy):Zestimate的高估值,直接变成了市场成交价格,然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场,继续推高市场价格。</p>\n<p>既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家,那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。</p>\n<p>当然,由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%),扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子,所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过,还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。</p>\n<p>而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓,Zillow的问题出现了。</p>\n<p>他们的AI定价模型太超前,高估了市场价格的增长速度,于是他们高价买入的房子,无法售出,最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。</p>\n<p>要知道,即使他们用买入价原价售出,都要损失掉交易成本这部分,现在还要低于买入价售出,这就造成了巨大的亏损。</p>\n<p>在第三季度,Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋,而根据财报,Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来,平均每套房子,Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!</p>\n<p><b>五、结语</b></p>\n<p>在11月2日的采访中,Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说,房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多,AI定价因此出了问题,所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务,并且裁员25%。</p>\n<p>这么看来,在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候,从CEO到下面管理层,都过于自信了,他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场,最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。</p>\n<p>奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过:爱,始于自我欺骗,终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们:iBuyer模式,始于欺骗他人,终于自我欺骗。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2baf3ed49adee692a5804eda7c8ec586\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:</p>\n<p>有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。</p>\n<p>也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。</p>\n<p>而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。</p>\n<p>这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演,无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷,到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WE\">WeWork</a>上市失败,再到现在的Zillow,这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意,就靠着野蛮扩张,迅速增加“营业额”,就可以不断推高估值,玩弄着资本和散户。</p>\n<p>就像黑格尔所说的:人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训,就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow暴雷——一个资本被韭菜们收割的故事\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 14:18 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日,Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer),当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%,然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前,Zillow股价最高到达过$208,现在仅剩下$70!受到Zillow影响,同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor,股价也大幅跳水,一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1b1cf0c27a3195e205fafc401e5c94c","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/593266.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2180737766","content_text":"美国最著名的地产高科技公司Zillow暴雷了!\n11月2日,Zillow宣布退出之前被华尔街广泛看好的 “炒房” 业务(iBuyer),当日内Zillow股价暴跌超过10%,然后11月3日开盘再次下跌17.5%。\n而就在短短几个月前,Zillow股价最高到达过$208,现在仅剩下$70!受到Zillow影响,同样做iBuyer业务的Opendoor,股价也大幅跳水,一日之内下跌了15%。\n曾经被认为是互联网地产行业的暴富神话,让Zillow股价一年翻了10倍的iBuyer模式,一夜之间跌落神坛。\n要了解这个巨星是如何陨落的,就让我来给大家讲一个“资本反被韭菜们收割”的故事吧。\n一、信箱中的手写黄纸条\n不知道从何时开始,在美国和加拿大的很多地方,人们会在信箱或门缝里收到一张黄色的手写小纸条。\n纸条的大概意思就是,我是一个在这个小区购买房屋的投资人,我看中了你的房子,我愿意支付给你现金买你的房子,而且可以很短的时间内就closing,感兴趣请拨打电话XXX-XXX-XXXX。\n纸条上也经常会写上,把房子卖给投资人的好处:\n1、不通过经纪,不需要支付任何经纪费用\n2、不需要维修房子,sold “as is”\n3、没有open house,不用showing\n\n但是很快就有主流媒体开始报道这个现象,并且警告屋主们要小心,因为这很可能是一个“骗局“。\n媒体经过调查发现,这些所谓的“投资人”,往往只报给卖家大约市场价的70%-80%甚至更低的价格。\n这些“投资人”一般会选择那些比较老的社区,比如在多伦多那些midtown的老城区。因为那里有很多单身的老人,他们平时不会很关心房价,并不了解市场的具体情况,而且很多老人也为了省心,想到不用维修就可以卖房子,于是就以非常低的价格把房子卖给了这些“投资人“。\n而这些”投资人“买到房子后,给房子稍作装修,迅速以高于买入价20%-30%甚至更高的价格把房子卖出!\n很多老人在看到房子重新卖掉的价格后,才大呼上当,但是也于事无补了。\n简单说,要想靠这种方法赚钱,主要是两个途径:\n1、 尽量低于市场价,利用信息不对称,从不了解市场的买家手里低价买入房子\n2、 希望市场价格能够高速增长,这样能够以更高的价格卖出\n二、iBuyer模式的起源\n互联网房地产业,在2014年开启了一种全新的赚钱模式——iBuyer!\n创始人Eric Wu是个深谙互联网金融玩法的人。他曾经创立过另外一家地产数据公司Movity,并且成功卖给了Zillow的竞争对手Trulia,获得了第一桶金。\n他很可能受到了黄色小纸条的启发,决心把黄色小纸条带到华尔街。当然他深知把黄色小纸条直接带到华尔街,逼格显然是不够的。\n所以一顿操作猛如虎,把各种互联网概念加到了这个传统的“炒房”模式上,并且把“i“加到”buying“或者”buyer“前面,立刻变得高大上起来。\n\n然而归根到底,他们要说服买家不通过传统渠道卖房子,就要列出他们的优势。总结下来就是:\n1、不通过经纪,不需要支付任何经纪费用(但是他们会收一笔8%-20%的service fee)\n2、不需要维修房子,sold “as is” (但是iBuyer公司会收一笔之后他们维修的费用从卖家那里)\n3、没有open house,不用showing\n这几条怎么感觉看着这么眼熟?\n三、Zillow入局,iBuyer行业迎来春天\n虽然Opendoor在2014年就创立,但是一直也经营的不温不火。毕竟这个模式从赚钱逻辑上有很严重的缺陷:\n1、 相对于传统房地产买卖,iBuyer模式无形中增加了一次交易(需要转手两次),因此大大增加了交易的成本。\n在美国,一般来说一次房地产交易的成本,即使不考虑经纪费用,仍然有房价2%-3%的交易成本。那么这个成本是谁来承担?最终吃亏的还是终端的买家和卖家。\n2、 黄色小纸条模式之所以能赚钱,是因为利用了信息不对称,可是互联网企业往往给客户提供大量的数据来吸引流量,所以严重的信息不对称是不存在的,iBuyer公司也就很难找到愿意低价卖房的人。\n3、 互联网公司要获得高估值,就需要快速扩张。而上面一条已经说了,因为互联网公司的特性,本来找到“傻子“的难度已经很大了,现在还需要找到“大量的傻子“。于是就出现“骗子太多,傻子明显不够用了”的窘境!\n幸运的是,上面也分析过,黄色小纸条模式有两个赚钱途径,既然第一个找“傻子”的途径走不下去,那还可以靠“市场价格高速增长”这个途径。\n下图是过去20多年美国房价在调整过通胀后的走势(Case-Shiller Home Price Index):\n\n可以看到,自从2014年iBuyer模式创立开始,美国的房价就一直在高速上涨。\n这就满足了黄色小纸条模式赚钱的第二条途径。于是急于通过提高营收来抬高股价的Zillow,就将目光投向了iBuyer市场,在2018年强势入局,开启了自己的iBuyer业务——Zillow Offers。\nZillow也不是空手而来,凭借其多年来积累强大的AI定价技术,直接把行业带上了新高度!\n有趣的是,Zillow入局的最大受益者,莫过于其竞争对手Opendoor了。\n借着Zillow的强大人气,Opendoor于2018年成功融资4亿美金,又在2019年再融3亿,公司估值直接上升到38亿美金,并最终于2020年末成功上市。\n四、猎人成为猎物,资本反被韭菜们割了\n在Zillow入局iBuyer业务的同时,公司的创始人Rich Barton也重新回到CEO的位置,带领公司全力拓展iBuyer业务。\n他们给自己制定了一个激进的目标,要在2024年实现每个月购买5000套美国的物业,并且大量扩招员工。\n这样的扩张,使Zillow的“营业额“大幅增加:在暴雷前的第三季度,Zillow的营业额同比增长超过500%。\n这种增长,导致公司的股价快速飙升,从2020年初到2021年初的,公司的股价从$20多美金,飙升到$208美金,1年翻了10倍!让管理层和股民们迎来了一波又一波的高潮。\n\n而这种“成功”让Zillow公司从上到下都充满了自信。随着COVID-19疫情在美国的肆虐,美国政府实施了前所未有的货币宽松政策,这让美国的房市在疫情后快速上涨,也使得Zillow的iBuyer业务受益匪浅。\n然而,在表面的歌舞升平下,一场前所未有的危机也开始酝酿。\nZillow看家的“本领”就是他们引以为豪的AI定价技术——Zestimate。通过多年的不断进化,这个AI定价技术,甚至可以把估价的误差缩小到5%以内。\n不过随着美国房价的不断疯狂上涨,这个AI模型也出现了问题:很多业内人士和卖家发现Zestimate往往会给出高于合理市场价格的评估,也就是说AI模型在定价上有点“超前了”。\n在2018年之前,当Zestimate出现偏差的时候,地产经纪们往往只是嗤之以鼻,告诉客户要以市场的实际成交为准。而且在房子最后成交后,事实也经常能证明专业的地产经纪的估价比Zestimate更准确。\n但是2018年以后,Zillow进入了iBuyer业务,也就是说,一旦Zestimate给出了估值,那么Zellow Offers就可能出给卖家这个价格的offer。\n这就形成了一个自证预言(self-fulfilling prophecy):Zestimate的高估值,直接变成了市场成交价格,然后Zillow就会以更高的价格list到市场,继续推高市场价格。\n既然Zillow Offers和类似的Opendoor可以提供更高的价格给卖家,那么很多卖家更愿意选择卖给iBuyer。\n当然,由于Zillow和Opendoor会收取很高昂的服务费(8%-20%),扣掉这个费用后到卖家手中的钱可能低于传统通过经纪卖房子,所以并不是所有房子都卖给了Zillow和Opendoor。不过,还是有相当多的房子高价卖给了Zillow。\n而随着第三季度美国房地产市场价格的增长放缓,Zillow的问题出现了。\n他们的AI定价模型太超前,高估了市场价格的增长速度,于是他们高价买入的房子,无法售出,最后竟然大部分低于买入价售出。\n要知道,即使他们用买入价原价售出,都要损失掉交易成本这部分,现在还要低于买入价售出,这就造成了巨大的亏损。\n在第三季度,Zillow一共卖出了3032套房屋,而根据财报,Zillow的iBuyer业务第三季度亏损是3.8亿美金。这样算下来,平均每套房子,Zillow亏损了超过12万美金!这是妥妥的资本被韭菜们的反向收割了!\n五、结语\n在11月2日的采访中,Zillow的创始人兼CEO Rich Barton解释说,房地产市场的价格波动比Zillow管理层原先预计的高很多,AI定价因此出了问题,所以公司决定停止Zillow Offers业务,并且裁员25%。\n这么看来,在Zillow公司股价飙涨的时候,从CEO到下面管理层,都过于自信了,他们相信AI可以很好的预测市场,最后竟然自己给自己洗脑了。\n奥斯卡·王尔德曾经说过:爱,始于自我欺骗,终于欺骗他人。而这个故事告诉我们:iBuyer模式,始于欺骗他人,终于自我欺骗。\n\n在Zillow宣布退出iBuyer业务后,市场上也有着各种不同版本的解读:\n有人认为Zillow退出iBuyer业务,预示着房价的反转,可能是这轮地产泡沫被戳破的起点。\n也有人认为没有了强大的竞争对手,Opendoor继续在iBuyer赛道可能走的会更顺利,反而更加看好这个业务。\n而我认为这次事件既表现出来在地产界人类暂时胜过AI,又表现出人类的不理性和贪婪。\n这种暴雷的事情仍将会一次次重演,无论是几年前中国各种O2O概念暴雷,到WeWork上市失败,再到现在的Zillow,这些底层商业逻辑就有问题的生意,就靠着野蛮扩张,迅速增加“营业额”,就可以不断推高估值,玩弄着资本和散户。\n就像黑格尔所说的:人类从历史中学到的唯一的教训,就是没有从历史中吸取到任何教训。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846820758,"gmtCreate":1636073908668,"gmtModify":1636073908864,"author":{"id":"3573384476205285","authorId":"3573384476205285","name":"7b7349c2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton 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