Weijielim的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Weijielim

Weijielim

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2021-11-27

$AEye, Inc.(LIDR)$wow

2021-10-01

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$gggggg

2021-09-30

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ggggg

2021-09-24

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2021-07-31

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2021-07-29

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me","text":"please comment on me","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375264321","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184404050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619319329,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184404050?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-25 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to watch in the markets this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184404050","media":"CNBC","summary":"The last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product a","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to watch in the markets this week</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to watch in the markets this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-25 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","AMZN":"亚马逊",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOG":"谷歌",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/taxes-and-inflation-will-be-key-themes-for-markets-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1184404050","content_text":"KEY POINTSThe last week of April will be extremely busy for markets with a third of the S&P 500 reporting earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting, and new spending and tax proposals from the White House.Big Tech is a highlight of the earnings calendar, with Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet all releasing results.The Fed is not expected to take any action, but economists expect it to defend its policy to let inflation run hot.There is some key data including first-quarter gross domestic product and the Fed’s favorite inflation measure: the personal consumption expenditures deflator.The final week of April is going to be a busy one for markets with a Federal Reserve meeting and a deluge of earnings news.Hot topics in markets will continue to be inflation and taxes.President Joe Biden is expected to detail his “American Families Plan” and the tax increases to pay for it, including a much higher capital gains tax for the wealthy.The plan is the second part of his Build Back Better agenda and will include new spending proposals aimed at helping families. The president addresses a joint session of Congress Wednesday evening.It’s a huge week for earnings with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting, including Big Tech names, such as Apple,Microsoft,Alphabet and Amazon.As many have already done, firms like Boeing, Ford,Caterpillar and McDonald’s, are likely to detail cost pressures they are facing from rising materials and transportation costs and supply chain disruptions.At the same time, the Fed is expected to defend its policy of letting inflation run hot, while assuring markets it sees the pick-up in prices as only temporary. The central bank meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.The central bank takes the main stage“I think the Fed would like not to be a feature next week, but the Fed will be forced from the background because of concerns about inflation,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press briefing following the meeting Wednesday will be closely watched.So far, the barrage of earnings news has been positive, with 86% of companies reporting earnings beats. Corporate profits are expected to be up about 33.9% for the first quarter, based on estimates and actual reports, according to Refinitiv. Revenues are about 9.9% higher.There is important inflation data Friday when the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is reported.The personal consumption expenditure report is expected to show a 1.8% rise in core inflation, still below the Fed’s target of 2%. Other data releases include the first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday, which is expected to have grown by 6.5%, according to Dow Jones.“I think the Fed has no urgency to shift monetary policy at this point,” said Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO. “The Fed needs to acknowledge that the data is improving. We had a strong first quarter.”“The Fed needs to acknowledge that but at the same time they’re keeping extremely accommodative policy in place, so they’ll have to make a note to the fact that the easy policy is warranted,” he said.Lyngen said the Fed will likely point to continued concerns about the pandemic globally as a potential risk to the economic recovery.Powell is also expected to once more explain that the Fed will let inflation rise above its 2% target for a period of time before it raises rates so that the economy can have more time to heal. “It’s going to be a challenge for the Fed,” said Swonk.The base effects for the next several months will make inflation appear to have jumped sharply because of the comparison to a weak period last year. The consumer price index for April could be above 3%, compared to 2.6% last month, Swonk added.“The Fed is trying to let a lot more people get out onto the dance floor before it calls ‘last call,’” she said. “Really what Powell has been saying since day one is if we take care of people on the margins and bring them back into the labor force, the rest will take care of itself.”Stocks were slightly lower in the past week, and Treasury yields held at lower levels. The 10-year yield,which moves opposite price, was at 1.55% Friday.The S&P 500was down 0.1%, ending the week at 4,180, while Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 0.3% at 14,016. The Dow was off just shy of 0.5% at 34,043.Tax hike prospectsStocks were hit hard on Thursday when after a news report said that Biden is expected to propose a capital gains tax rate of 39.6% for people earning more than $1 million a year.Combined with the 3.8% net investment income tax, the new levy would more than double the long term capital gains rate of 20% or the richest Americans.Strategists said Biden is expected to propose raising the income tax rate for those earning more than $400,000.“I think a lot of people are starting to price in the risk there going to be a significant increase in both corporate and capital gains taxes,” said Lyngen.So far, companies have not provided much in the way of commentary on the proposed hike in corporate taxes to 28% from 21% but they have been talking about other costs.David Bianco, chief investment strategist for the Americas at DWS, said he expects larger companies will do better dealing with supply chain constraints than smaller ones. Big Tech is also likely to fare better during the semiconductor shortage than auto makers, which have already announced production shutdowns, he said.“Next week is tech week. I think we’re going to get down on our knees and just be in awe of their business models and their ability to grow at a behemoth scale,” Bianco said.He said he’s not in favor of Wall Street’s popular trade into cyclicals and out of growth. He still favors growth.“We’re overweight equities really because we’re concerned about rising interest rates,” Bianco said. “I’m not bullish in that I expect the market to rise that much from here.”“We stuck with growth and dug deeper into bond substitutes, utilities, staples, real estate,” he said, adding he is underweight industrials, energy and materials. “Energy is doomed. It’s being nationalized via regulation. I do like industrials, they are well-run companies, but I do think infrastructure spending expectations for classic infrastructure are too high.”He also said industrials are good businesses, but the stocks have become overvalued.Bianco said he likes big box stores, but smaller retailers are facing big challenges that were already impacting them prior to Covid. He also finds small biotech firms attractive.“I like healthcare stocks. Those valuations are reasonable. People have been paranoid about politicians beating on them since 1992. They manage through it and lately they’ve been delivering,” he said.Week ahead calendarMondayEarnings:Tesla,Canadian National Railway, Canon,Check Point Software,Otis Worldwide, Vale,Ameriprise,NXP Semiconductor,Albertsons, Royal Phillips8:30 a.m. Durable goodsTuesdayFOMC begins two day meetingEarnings:Microsoft,Alphabet,Visa,Amgen,Advanced Micro Devices,3M,General Electric,Eli Lilly, Hasbro,United Parcel Service,BP,Novartis,JetBlue,Pultegroup,Archer Daniels Midland,Waste Management,Starbucks,Texas Instrument,Chubb,Mondelez,FireEye,Corning,Raytheon9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence10:00 a.m. Housing vacanciesWednesdayEarnings:Apple, Boeing,Facebook,Qualcomm,Ford,MGM Resorts,Humana,Norfolk Southern,General Dynamics,Boston Scientific, eBay, Samsung Electronics, GlaxoSmithKline,Yum Brands, SiriusXM, Aflac,Cheesecake Factory,Community Health System,CIT Group,Entergy,CME Group,Hess,Ryder System8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators2:00 p.m. Fed statement2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefingThursdayEarnings:Amazon,Caterpillar,McDonald’s,Twitter,Bristol-Myers Squibb,Comcast,Merck,Northrop Grumman, Airbus,Kraft Heinz,Intercontinental Exchange,Mastercard,Gilead Sciences,U.S. Steel, Cirrus Logic,Texas Roadhouse, Cabot Oil, PG&E,Royal Dutch Shell,Church & Dwight, Carlyle Group,Southern Co.8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q110:00 a.m. Pending home salesFridayEarnings:ExxonMobil,Chevron,Colgate-Palmolive,AstraZeneca,Clorox,Barclays, AbbVie, BNP Paribas,Weyerhaeuser,Illinois Tool Works, CBOE Global Markets, Lazard,Newell Brands,Aon,LyondellBasell,Pitney Bowes,Phillips 66,Charter Communications8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending8:30 a.m. Employment cost index Q19:45 a.m. Chicago PMI10:00 a.m. Consumer sentimentSaturdayEarnings:Berkshire Hathaway","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":322674947,"gmtCreate":1615806685489,"gmtModify":1703493258350,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZOM\">$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$</a>bless me&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZOM\">$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$</a>bless me&nbsp;","text":"$Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.(ZOM)$bless 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Corp.(ZOM)$wowww","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d17ef398afc87e5a28b27c61479f1c22","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325026749","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":320633799,"gmtCreate":1615089890211,"gmtModify":1703484649970,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>tohh","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>tohh","text":"$Tesla 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Motors(TSLA)$wowww","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b234ffa4ca6ded7489b51dcdc849985e","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320914932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112644972,"gmtCreate":1622869147496,"gmtModify":1634097176895,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ggggggg","listText":"ggggggg","text":"ggggggg","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956030a0468e7435d370ca339dd74640","width":"1125","height":"3612"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112644972","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103135335,"gmtCreate":1619754630527,"gmtModify":1634210150554,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>ggggg","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>ggggg","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ggggg","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5170b8d167aa94324b95d955e42aa57d","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103135335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342311898,"gmtCreate":1618184154314,"gmtModify":1634294624994,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"comment pls","listText":"comment pls","text":"comment pls","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01460dbb1f3093987ade5c9c5b479a47","width":"1125","height":"3399"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342311898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":359153908,"gmtCreate":1616375986004,"gmtModify":1634526189899,"author":{"id":"3569829429894333","authorId":"3569829429894333","name":"Weijielim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15e78cf1614d5802ab8dfb0d542754d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569829429894333","authorIdStr":"3569829429894333"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"reply to my comment pls","listText":"reply to my comment pls","text":"reply to my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359153908","repostId":"1169559774","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169559774","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616374328,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169559774?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-22 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169559774","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought ","content":"<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:<b>Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?</b>COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast that<b>conditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.</b></p>\n<p>All cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!</p>\n<p>Surprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.</p>\n<p>Those are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,<b>we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.</b></p>\n<p>Yet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>The first is stimulus.</b>The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>The second is savings.</b>Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Third is the labor market.</b>Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Finally, there is the future path of policy.</b>Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>For all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.<b>But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.</b>Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.</p>\n<p>Short cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.</p>\n<p>But this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.<b>If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.</b></p>\n<p>Where should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleague<b>Michael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps</b>(see<i>US Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings &gt; Multiple, March 15, 2021</i>), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.</p>\n<p>Sector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.<b>Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag</b>. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.</p>\n<p>Will conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is the<b>US breakeven expectations curve</b>. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18991a80e78a2ab365c583482078a91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.</p>\n<p>As long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. Either way, it’s an important dynamic to watch.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Burn \"Hotter And Shorter\" So Start Thinking About Rotating Out Of Early-Cycle Winners\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-22 08:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2488184ce4815610e2426c10250da75","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-burn-hotter-and-shoter-so-start-thinking-about-rotating-out-early","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169559774","content_text":"This discussion needs to start with an obvious question:Is this even a ‘new’ cycle?COVID-19 brought the global economy to a sudden stop, while an aggressive policy response drove a rapid recovery. Some investors argue that both were so fast thatconditions never ‘reset’ in the way they usually do during recessions.\nAll cycles have their quirks. The last three US recessions were adjacent to: 1) The largest equity bubble in history; 2) The largest financial crisis since the Great Depression; and 3) A global pandemic. If you’re looking for a 'normal' recession, good luck!\nSurprisingly, as different as these three recessions were, they were all preceded by similar phenomena. All three saw an inverted yield curve within ~6 months before they started. All three followed a Fed hiking cycle and core CPI above 2.4%Y. All three were preceded by high consumer confidence, low unemployment and declining equity market breadth.\nThose are an awful lot of similarities. And they carry through to the recovery. Since the lows of activity in April 2020, 'normal' early-cycle investment strategies have worked very well. Corporate default rates have been similar to other recessions when measured on a rolling two-year basis. If it walks like a new cycle and talks like a new cycle,we think that investors should treat it like a new cycle.\nYet while this cycle has so far followed many 'normal' patterns, its evolution could be unique. For several reasons, in the US and globally, this cycle could burn unusually hot.\n\nThe first is stimulus.The global economy is seeing record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time. 'Unprecedented' is an overused word in our business, but this cycle qualifies and is unique among other post-recessionary periods.\nThe second is savings.Savings rates stand at historical highs in the US, Europe and China. While the distribution of these savings is uneven, they provide substantial fuel for consumption. Corporate cash balances are also elevated, a buffer against COVID-19 uncertainty that could find its way into spending as confidence returns.\nThird is the labor market.Our economists note that the majority of recent job losses were in COVID-19-related sectors. If the economy can reopen safely, it seems reasonable that we could see an unusually fast labour normalization as these sectors come back.\nFinally, there is the future path of policy.Global central banks are signalling a strong commitment to supporting growth and returning inflation to more normal levels. Governments are showing little desire to eventually raise taxes or cut spending. Both stances suggest a hotter cycle, less likely to be restrained by policy tightening than the previous expansions.\n\nFor all these reasons, our economists think that growth and inflation will exceed expectations over the next two years.But just like in the cosmos, what burns hotter may also burn shorter.Unlike the long expansions that defined the last 40 years, this one might look more similar to the late 1940s or 1950s.\nShort cycles can still mean good growth and multi-year expansions. The Roaring Twenties saw recessions in 1920, 1923 and 1926 (and, of course, 1929). The US economy grew at an enviable 4% rate between 1947 and 1960, despite recessions in 1948, 1953, 1957 and 1960. Each expansion lasted at least three years.\nBut this does mean that investors need to be more nimble. Different investments work in different parts of the economic cycle.If this cycle burns hotter and shorter, we need to start thinking about rotating out of early-cycle winners.\nWhere should we look? US small-cap versus large-cap equities, copper versus gold and corporate credit are all strategies that we’ve liked given historically strong performance following recessions. But all do less well as the cycle extends. My colleagueMichael Wilson recently downgraded US small caps(seeUS Equity Strategy: Weekly Warm-up: The Cycle vs Liquidity; Downgrading Small Caps; Earnings > Multiple, March 15, 2021), an example of how we are looking to exit some early-cycle strategies.\nSector and regional leadership can also vary significantly as the cycle progresses.Emerging market equities historically do best following a recession, but then lag. Stocks in Europe and Japan have done better as the economy matures.\nWill conditions run too hot? One metric I’m following closely is theUS breakeven expectations curve. At the moment, it is reflecting a modest overshoot of inflation over the next 2-5 years...\n\n... followed by lower levels of inflation thereafter. That would appear to be exactly what the Fed hopes to deliver, wrapped up neatly with a nice little bow.\nAs long as that curve remains inverted, the market is signalling that inflationary pressure will be transitory, and there is little need for central banks to sharply change tack. Maybe this is correct. Maybe it is an example of expectations being driven by recent experience. 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