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广东小脑斧
2023-12-13
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@谋定后动:【月入两万刀期权实战】给期权初学者的建言(3月篇)
广东小脑斧
2023-06-02
满仓拼多多!
世纪抄底拼多多
广东小脑斧
2022-06-01
$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$
千古罪人小拜登
广东小脑斧
2022-05-05
现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊
抱歉,原内容已删除
广东小脑斧
2021-09-21
真的想救公司的话,就把自己的几千亿私房钱拿出来吧,否则都是骗人的[得意]
许家印中秋致信恒大全员:全力以赴履行好社会责任
广东小脑斧
2021-06-29
$每日优鲜(MF)$
SB
广东小脑斧
2021-06-09
嘴上力挺,实际都在出货
$中国恒大(03333)$
摩根大通上调评级后 恒大再获银河联昌看好
广东小脑斧
2021-06-09
$中国恒大(03333)$
恒大拼命救市的样子,说明绝对有鬼,空空空🈳🈳🈳[贱笑]
广东小脑斧
2021-03-11
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
🛫
广东小脑斧
2021-03-04
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
sb吧,就你跌最凶?[愤怒]
广东小脑斧
2021-03-02
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
为什么call,put都在跌[流泪]
广东小脑斧
2021-03-01
$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$
何时到120?
广东小脑斧
2021-02-26
向叙利亚开战才花多点钱,这都能摧毁美帝了?
抱歉,原内容已删除
广东小脑斧
2021-02-24
今晚如何?[流泪]
广东小脑斧
2021-02-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
哈哈
广东小脑斧
2021-02-12
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
3块多的本,还有机会解套吗
广东小脑斧
2021-02-10
$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$
阳痿?
广东小脑斧
2021-02-06
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
没抄到底,拍断大腿
广东小脑斧
2021-02-04
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
天空才是尽头[开心]
广东小脑斧
2021-02-03
$苹果(AAPL)$
我卖了,你可以涨了[心碎] [心碎] [心碎]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/610221733\" target=\"_blank\">《寻找期权头号玩家活动》 </a>的活动,那我也来写些文字就凑个热闹吧。无心插柳的开始我知道期权这个金融衍生工具是十几年前的事情了,我身边有一些朋友一直以此为副业的,和他们闲聊的时候也问起什么是期权,半懂不懂地听了一些一言半语的解释,还是一头雾水,感觉这玩意儿是不是加了杠杆的股票?压方向是不是和赌博差不多?于是内心里先入为主地就把期权归类到投机工具而把它放在一边了。2020年4月正是新加坡疫情开始蔓延,人心惶惶开始居家办公的时候。通勤的时间少了,和电脑手机作伴的时间多了,另一边公司的业绩如雪崩般下滑,心里的焦虑感挥之不去,心里想找点什么东西学学转移注意力吧。于是我就开始了我的期权学习之旅,一开始学习我就一发不可收拾,乐此不疲,看书、看视频、做笔记、上课程、翻资料、定计划。在期权学习过程中,认知变现给我带来的快乐甚至远远超过盈利所得金钱的快乐。我算是一个爱好不少的人,玩航拍、蝴蝶摄影、贝壳收藏、下象棋等等,这两年下来期权交易却成了我另一种新爱好 。期权是个什么梗期权的英文是option,我觉得“期权”这个翻译比英文的原文更加准确地描述了这个期权的特性,“期”,就是未来某个时间;“权”,就是一种权利,持有期权的人可以在未来的某个时间,以约定的价格,来买入或者卖出相应的股票。如果把股票比喻成一个锤子,那么期权就是一个包含锤子、剪刀、扳手、螺丝刀等等一大堆工具的工具箱。为什么这么说它是个完整的工具项呢?因为股票只能在股市上涨这一个方向上盈利,而期权则能在市场上涨、震荡、下跌的所有方向上赚钱。如果说股票是在一个二","listText":"翻看了一下我自己的学习笔记,4月份正好是我开始学习期权的两周年的日子,有些感想想要记录下来,正巧这个月老虎社区有一个<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/post/610221733\" target=\"_blank\">《寻找期权头号玩家活动》 </a>的活动,那我也来写些文字就凑个热闹吧。无心插柳的开始我知道期权这个金融衍生工具是十几年前的事情了,我身边有一些朋友一直以此为副业的,和他们闲聊的时候也问起什么是期权,半懂不懂地听了一些一言半语的解释,还是一头雾水,感觉这玩意儿是不是加了杠杆的股票?压方向是不是和赌博差不多?于是内心里先入为主地就把期权归类到投机工具而把它放在一边了。2020年4月正是新加坡疫情开始蔓延,人心惶惶开始居家办公的时候。通勤的时间少了,和电脑手机作伴的时间多了,另一边公司的业绩如雪崩般下滑,心里的焦虑感挥之不去,心里想找点什么东西学学转移注意力吧。于是我就开始了我的期权学习之旅,一开始学习我就一发不可收拾,乐此不疲,看书、看视频、做笔记、上课程、翻资料、定计划。在期权学习过程中,认知变现给我带来的快乐甚至远远超过盈利所得金钱的快乐。我算是一个爱好不少的人,玩航拍、蝴蝶摄影、贝壳收藏、下象棋等等,这两年下来期权交易却成了我另一种新爱好 。期权是个什么梗期权的英文是option,我觉得“期权”这个翻译比英文的原文更加准确地描述了这个期权的特性,“期”,就是未来某个时间;“权”,就是一种权利,持有期权的人可以在未来的某个时间,以约定的价格,来买入或者卖出相应的股票。如果把股票比喻成一个锤子,那么期权就是一个包含锤子、剪刀、扳手、螺丝刀等等一大堆工具的工具箱。为什么这么说它是个完整的工具项呢?因为股票只能在股市上涨这一个方向上盈利,而期权则能在市场上涨、震荡、下跌的所有方向上赚钱。如果说股票是在一个二","text":"翻看了一下我自己的学习笔记,4月份正好是我开始学习期权的两周年的日子,有些感想想要记录下来,正巧这个月老虎社区有一个《寻找期权头号玩家活动》 的活动,那我也来写些文字就凑个热闹吧。无心插柳的开始我知道期权这个金融衍生工具是十几年前的事情了,我身边有一些朋友一直以此为副业的,和他们闲聊的时候也问起什么是期权,半懂不懂地听了一些一言半语的解释,还是一头雾水,感觉这玩意儿是不是加了杠杆的股票?压方向是不是和赌博差不多?于是内心里先入为主地就把期权归类到投机工具而把它放在一边了。2020年4月正是新加坡疫情开始蔓延,人心惶惶开始居家办公的时候。通勤的时间少了,和电脑手机作伴的时间多了,另一边公司的业绩如雪崩般下滑,心里的焦虑感挥之不去,心里想找点什么东西学学转移注意力吧。于是我就开始了我的期权学习之旅,一开始学习我就一发不可收拾,乐此不疲,看书、看视频、做笔记、上课程、翻资料、定计划。在期权学习过程中,认知变现给我带来的快乐甚至远远超过盈利所得金钱的快乐。我算是一个爱好不少的人,玩航拍、蝴蝶摄影、贝壳收藏、下象棋等等,这两年下来期权交易却成了我另一种新爱好 。期权是个什么梗期权的英文是option,我觉得“期权”这个翻译比英文的原文更加准确地描述了这个期权的特性,“期”,就是未来某个时间;“权”,就是一种权利,持有期权的人可以在未来的某个时间,以约定的价格,来买入或者卖出相应的股票。如果把股票比喻成一个锤子,那么期权就是一个包含锤子、剪刀、扳手、螺丝刀等等一大堆工具的工具箱。为什么这么说它是个完整的工具项呢?因为股票只能在股市上涨这一个方向上盈利,而期权则能在市场上涨、震荡、下跌的所有方向上赚钱。如果说股票是在一个二","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9e05845f5addcc44a9f1e6efeff2a9","width":"1107","height":"829"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619176621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":979,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183088229286072,"gmtCreate":1685718858526,"gmtModify":1685718860441,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"满仓拼多多!","listText":"满仓拼多多!","text":"满仓拼多多!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183088229286072","repostId":"1151121944","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151121944","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1685710525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151121944?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-02 20:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"世纪抄底拼多多","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151121944","media":"格隆汇","summary":"经济不好,生意难做,就连互联网大厂也是如此。但有一个例外,拼多多。5月26日,拼多多发布了今年Q1业绩,营收为376亿,同比增速惊人,达到58%,超过市场预期。注意!这只是营收,还不是净利润。简单对比","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>经济不好,生意难做,就连互联网大厂也是如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但有一个例外,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月26日,拼多多发布了今年Q1业绩,营收为376亿,同比增速惊人,达到58%,超过市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">注意!</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这只是营收,还不是净利润。简单对比另外几大电商平台,同期营收增长基本限于停滞,拼多多能够取得这样炸裂的增长,不得不说是一种成就。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">说到净利润,增速同样很高,归母净利润为81亿元,同比增长212%,Non-GAAP归母净利润则达到101亿元,同比增长141%,这样的增长幅度,几乎是同行7-8倍。经营利润率也在快速抬升,从去年同期的9.05%,翻倍上涨至18.41%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且,同行只能靠降本增效,艰难地做出净利润增长,但拼多多却不断展现出自己依然是成长股的特性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩公布当晚,拼多多狂飙18个点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003bc3d19f58c26526f997cc17f004bf\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拼多多的投资价值,正在重新获得市场认可。</p><p><strong>01、最能打的电商模式</strong></p><p>关于拼多多的逆势增长,很多人会有疑问:</p><p><strong>凭什么?</strong></p><p>其实,答案再简单不过,那就是商业模式好。</p><p>拼多多从成立、上市,甚至到现在,都伴随着不少质疑声,甚至有嘲笑拼多多说成拼夕夕的。</p><p>但无可否认,这些年下来,拼多多不断给用户提供物美价廉商品,如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机、小米手机,这些并非山寨货。即使起家之初,确实也存在山寨货问题,<strong>但不要忘了它也是一直不断成长,不断改善改进各种问题,让自己变得越来越正规且强大。</strong></p><p>所以对于拼多多的看法,不能简单地沿用过去的假货思维,更不能简单地认为只是兜售便宜货的电商平台。</p><p>事实上,目前拼多多的商品包罗万象,品类已不输任何一个大型综合型电商平台。</p><p><strong>而真正能打的,是拼多多的商业模式。</strong></p><p>组团、砍价、便宜,是拼多多与生俱来的营销基因,但这些基因,或许才是最能打动消费者心智的东西。特别是当下,全球经济都不是很好,用户消费起来也没有过去经济好的时候那么大手大脚,省着花成了大家的习惯。在这种情况下,拼多多的“便宜”就有天然的吸引力。</p><p><strong>这其实也是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>商业模式的“中国化”、“线上化”。</strong></p><p>上世纪1970-1980年代,美国深陷通货膨胀危机,居民消费受到严重挤压,传统的商品销售渠道也受到打击,但危机却为折扣店行业带来机会,沃尔玛就是这一时期折扣店的标杆。</p><p>更重要的是,沃尔玛在折扣店行业站稳脚跟之后,并不是简单粗暴地通过垄断销售渠道去压榨供应商,而是通过更高维度的“升级”,如成本端-高效的自身管理提升效率,控制成本,利用灵活的不动产管理及时回笼资金进行物业的滚动开发,缓解资金压力,减少对外融资需求,伙伴式的人力资源管理一方面提升员工归属感和工作效能,等等,去为用户提供真正便宜的商品,同时实现和产业链伙伴的共赢。与此同时,沃尔玛也抓住经济全球化的红利,积极扩张海外市场。1990年,沃尔玛正式超越百年零售企业西尔斯,成为全美第一大零售企业。如今,它已经连续多年成为全球第一零售企业。</p><p>除了深得沃尔玛的商业模式精髓,拼多多在具体实施上,增加了很多创新性,如组团+砍价模式,相比传统电商单个个体采购的形式,更容易短时间内抢夺到大量用户,同样的案例如当年微信支付采用红包方式偷袭支付宝类似,用户在持续尝到甜头之后,就会对平台产生粘性,从而得以维持流量池。</p><p>凭借这个模式,拼多多早在2021年第三季度的活跃买家数达到8.673亿,平均月活跃用户数达7.415亿,成功超越昔日老大淘宝。更重要的是,拼多多只用了6年,超过有17年历史的淘宝。</p><p><strong>现在,从用户数上看,一跃成为中国第一电商平台。</strong></p><p>同时,在各类新玩法涌现的今天,拼多多也积极拥抱变化,短视频、直播带货已经成为平台经营的必选项。</p><p>另一方面,拼多多对于供应链的培育,也是其商业模式得以走通的重要因素。如深坑农业供应链,通过数字化技术手段升级农业生产、流通、销售等各个环节,既能响应国家号召,规避政策风险,同时容易获得政策红利,最后夯实自身的供应链体系,实现自主可控。</p><p>虽然国内电商行业整体上步入瓶颈期,内卷也越来越大,但拼多多的商业模式已经被验证是能打的,它符合人性中对于“便宜”的追求,也能够持续维持用户粘性,甚至可以继续抢占竞争对手的用户。而其他电商公司的各种尝试,比如主打富人阶层、中产阶级、城市白领,最后的结果都不如拼多多直接给“便宜”简单和有效。</p><p>2022年,拼多多的营收只有1305亿,淘宝电商收入超过5000亿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>则高达9000多亿(含自营)。从体量上看,拼多多的增长空间依然在,更重要的是,拼多多的商业模式和创新玩法,让它有能力继续争取到更多的市场空间。</p><p>这正是拼多多的增长逻辑之一。</p><p><strong>而另一个,则是更为广阔的海外市场。</strong></p><p><strong>02、出海:强大的新增长曲线</strong></p><p>2022年9月,拼多多B2C跨境电商平台Temu正式在北美市场上线。</p><p>Temu完美沿袭了拼多多在国内的营销基因,甚至在玩法上更加给力。</p><p>在产品端,Temu主要覆盖服装、数码、家电、箱包、户外、玩具、文具等普通家庭最常用的商品,并且主打超高性价比、高折扣,尤其高现金奖励拉新的裂变营销玩法,让美国的普通消费者几乎毫无抵抗之力,甚至自觉成为了拉粉的主力。</p><p>同时在商家端,0佣金、0保证金,商家只需要发货入仓,无需承担履约和售后问题,后续的物流、运营、客服、推广与仓储均由拼多多承担。商家按照供货价进行人民币结算,更无需承担汇率波动风险,利润锁定确定性强,相对也很乐意成为供应商。</p><p><strong>由此,拼多多掌握到了非常强大的供应商队伍(1400万商家),同时掌握了产品的议价权和运营权,再加上自身与极兔物流深度绑定完美解决了物流配送问题,把“人、货、场”三大根本要素完美结合起来。</strong></p><p>Temu一经推出,在极短时间内在美国卷起一股了营销拉新龙卷风。</p><p>据报道,Temu仅用了短短几个月,就超越了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、SHEIN、TikTok霸榜美国App下载榜第一。同时GMV数据也在飞速攀升,到今年1月,周度GMV已经稳定超过5000万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3c58912fa3b7ae7f28350503719c29\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>据了解,今年3月,Temu的月活跃用户达1340万,已超越美国知名零售商Target,这个速度还在快速增长中。</strong></p><p>几个月就取得如此巨大的成绩,非常令人惊讶。</p><p>个人认为,拼多多的出海第一站之所以选择美国,确实是一个非常不错的切入低点和时点。</p><p>因为美国作为全球最大且最有钱的消费区,同时限制于持续的通胀问题让美国的普通消费者的可支配收入缩减,导致他们更加倾向于购买性价比高的商品,这就是所谓的口红效应。</p><p>说白了,拼多多电商开在美国市场,就是在对的时候,对的地点,把事情做对了。</p><p><strong>更重要的逻辑在于,拼多多的这一套打法,已经越来越成熟,在北美的成功,说明复制到国外完全没有任何“水土不服”甚至可能效果更好。如果接下来,它把这一套加速推到欧洲、非洲、和其他的地区,那么肯定也会收获一大波新的市场。</strong></p><p>甚至,如果后续拼多多把多多视频、社区零售甚至AI卖货这种玩法都做好并复制出去,那么在用户积累、降本增效和营收提升方面,还将有更大的增长。</p><p>这些都是在乐观预期条件下的想象空间,<strong>目前市场还没有给到这一部分的估值。</strong></p><p>当然了,拼多多的风险也不可忽视,比如temu会不会同样面临像tiktok在被美国监管限制的问题,以及其他竞争对手的联合围攻导致利润回报时间被拉长。</p><p>但目前形势看,这种可能性还比较小,毕竟欧美陷入高通胀的压力还长期存在,需要更多的供应端来缓解压力。而更关键的是,拼多多的这种打法已经在美国打开市场和品牌度,已经用越来越庞大的用户规模,其实是极难完全限制掉temu的。它跟TikTok还不大一样,本质上还只是影响用户的购物行为,在利益至上的美国,只要能帮它缓解通胀,以及后续如果在本地建立供应链,进而给美国带来更多的税收和就业岗位,那没,完全没有理由限制。</p><p>而在欧洲,非洲,亚洲等其他地区的市场,更是基本不会有这样的风险。</p><p><strong>至于竞争对手,东南亚的新秀的这些,目前看来虽然也在相互抄作业,有些背后也有大佬支持,但与拼多多的差距还是很明显的,尤其在获客打法、供应链的厂商和物流团队,拼多多的优势根本很难炒的过去。</strong></p><p><strong>拼多多的裂变式获客模式,以及极致性价比和售后体验,不是谁都能学到的。</strong></p><p>所以在拼多多的出海业务这一块,至少未来几年大概率都还会带来更多的惊喜,成为一条新增长曲线。</p><p><strong>03、估值具有吸引力,机构一致看高超50%</strong></p><p>首先,拼多多在此前最巅峰的时候,股价一度超过200美元。彼时,国内对互联网行业的监管叠加疫情冲击的后遗症还没有显露出来,但同样的,拼多多的新增长点也还没有出现。</p><p><strong>到现在,拼多多的股价不到70美元,动态PE为18倍,即使是静态PE,也只有20倍出头,这样的估值水平,不仅远低于自己的历史记录,也显著低于美股的同行。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15169ddf3f6dd370c82893100439770d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>虽然目前国内的电商行业确实还承受着宏观经济下行压力的影响,但客观来讲,互联网电商的确实已经比较充分预期了这个因素,比如淘宝、京东的估值也只有20多倍出头。</p><p>现在国家对互联网行业的监管整顿结束,并态度上转为支持平台经济发展,同时还在大力出台有力政策去拉动国民经济增长,电商行业实质已经度过最艰难时期,后续大概率就是回暖的趋势,还剩下的只是强弱区别。</p><p>所以,电商平台的下行空间应该不大了。</p><p>对于拼多多,之所以可以给予更多的预期。</p><p>正式在于它在视频、社区电商尤其出海等领域的切入,确实在取得非常明显的增量,并且这些还是才刚开始不久,后面已经打开很大的想象空间,并且机构也乐于给到相应的预期。</p><p>比如,一季度,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、Assenagon资产管理、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>资产管理、施罗德投资管理等不少明星机构在排队进场加仓。拼多多还是景林的头号重仓股,而高瓴也在一季度对拼多多增持了2.6倍多,成为其美股持仓的第二大重仓。</p><p><strong>近一个月,国内已有至少12家机构对拼多多发布研报预测,目标价一致性预期给出了超过100美元的目标价,距离当前股价幅度超过50%。</strong></p><p>看好的态度是非常明显的。</p><p><strong>04、总结</strong></p><p>总的来说,我们之所以在这个时点看好拼多多,是因为后者确实有太多值得期待的并经过了市场考验的硬逻辑。</p><p>尽管在未来一两年甚至更长的时间里,全球经济形势可能依然还面临巨大压力,电商行业也会因此可能会更加内卷,但拼多多确实是体现出了比较不错的逆增长趋势。</p><p>拼多多的模式,相比其他的对手在经济弱衰退周期有更好的抗压能力。这两年,无论国内外,都有不少电商被洗下牌桌,唯独它不但在业务布局、供应链体系、平台生态方面做出了很大的进步,还在海外市场逆势扩张,真正打造了第二增长曲线。</p><p>而这些优势还在不断积累着,再加上目前它的估值水平较为低估,我们有理由相信,它未来的上行空间大概率是值得去期待的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于拼多多会不会真按照我们或者机构所预想的那样走下去,不妨给多点时间一起等待验证。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>世纪抄底拼多多</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ 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.h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n世纪抄底拼多多\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-06-02 20:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>经济不好,生意难做,就连互联网大厂也是如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但有一个例外,<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">5月26日,拼多多发布了今年Q1业绩,营收为376亿,同比增速惊人,达到58%,超过市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">注意!</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这只是营收,还不是净利润。简单对比另外几大电商平台,同期营收增长基本限于停滞,拼多多能够取得这样炸裂的增长,不得不说是一种成就。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">说到净利润,增速同样很高,归母净利润为81亿元,同比增长212%,Non-GAAP归母净利润则达到101亿元,同比增长141%,这样的增长幅度,几乎是同行7-8倍。经营利润率也在快速抬升,从去年同期的9.05%,翻倍上涨至18.41%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而且,同行只能靠降本增效,艰难地做出净利润增长,但拼多多却不断展现出自己依然是成长股的特性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩公布当晚,拼多多狂飙18个点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/003bc3d19f58c26526f997cc17f004bf\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拼多多的投资价值,正在重新获得市场认可。</p><p><strong>01、最能打的电商模式</strong></p><p>关于拼多多的逆势增长,很多人会有疑问:</p><p><strong>凭什么?</strong></p><p>其实,答案再简单不过,那就是商业模式好。</p><p>拼多多从成立、上市,甚至到现在,都伴随着不少质疑声,甚至有嘲笑拼多多说成拼夕夕的。</p><p>但无可否认,这些年下来,拼多多不断给用户提供物美价廉商品,如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机、小米手机,这些并非山寨货。即使起家之初,确实也存在山寨货问题,<strong>但不要忘了它也是一直不断成长,不断改善改进各种问题,让自己变得越来越正规且强大。</strong></p><p>所以对于拼多多的看法,不能简单地沿用过去的假货思维,更不能简单地认为只是兜售便宜货的电商平台。</p><p>事实上,目前拼多多的商品包罗万象,品类已不输任何一个大型综合型电商平台。</p><p><strong>而真正能打的,是拼多多的商业模式。</strong></p><p>组团、砍价、便宜,是拼多多与生俱来的营销基因,但这些基因,或许才是最能打动消费者心智的东西。特别是当下,全球经济都不是很好,用户消费起来也没有过去经济好的时候那么大手大脚,省着花成了大家的习惯。在这种情况下,拼多多的“便宜”就有天然的吸引力。</p><p><strong>这其实也是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>商业模式的“中国化”、“线上化”。</strong></p><p>上世纪1970-1980年代,美国深陷通货膨胀危机,居民消费受到严重挤压,传统的商品销售渠道也受到打击,但危机却为折扣店行业带来机会,沃尔玛就是这一时期折扣店的标杆。</p><p>更重要的是,沃尔玛在折扣店行业站稳脚跟之后,并不是简单粗暴地通过垄断销售渠道去压榨供应商,而是通过更高维度的“升级”,如成本端-高效的自身管理提升效率,控制成本,利用灵活的不动产管理及时回笼资金进行物业的滚动开发,缓解资金压力,减少对外融资需求,伙伴式的人力资源管理一方面提升员工归属感和工作效能,等等,去为用户提供真正便宜的商品,同时实现和产业链伙伴的共赢。与此同时,沃尔玛也抓住经济全球化的红利,积极扩张海外市场。1990年,沃尔玛正式超越百年零售企业西尔斯,成为全美第一大零售企业。如今,它已经连续多年成为全球第一零售企业。</p><p>除了深得沃尔玛的商业模式精髓,拼多多在具体实施上,增加了很多创新性,如组团+砍价模式,相比传统电商单个个体采购的形式,更容易短时间内抢夺到大量用户,同样的案例如当年微信支付采用红包方式偷袭支付宝类似,用户在持续尝到甜头之后,就会对平台产生粘性,从而得以维持流量池。</p><p>凭借这个模式,拼多多早在2021年第三季度的活跃买家数达到8.673亿,平均月活跃用户数达7.415亿,成功超越昔日老大淘宝。更重要的是,拼多多只用了6年,超过有17年历史的淘宝。</p><p><strong>现在,从用户数上看,一跃成为中国第一电商平台。</strong></p><p>同时,在各类新玩法涌现的今天,拼多多也积极拥抱变化,短视频、直播带货已经成为平台经营的必选项。</p><p>另一方面,拼多多对于供应链的培育,也是其商业模式得以走通的重要因素。如深坑农业供应链,通过数字化技术手段升级农业生产、流通、销售等各个环节,既能响应国家号召,规避政策风险,同时容易获得政策红利,最后夯实自身的供应链体系,实现自主可控。</p><p>虽然国内电商行业整体上步入瓶颈期,内卷也越来越大,但拼多多的商业模式已经被验证是能打的,它符合人性中对于“便宜”的追求,也能够持续维持用户粘性,甚至可以继续抢占竞争对手的用户。而其他电商公司的各种尝试,比如主打富人阶层、中产阶级、城市白领,最后的结果都不如拼多多直接给“便宜”简单和有效。</p><p>2022年,拼多多的营收只有1305亿,淘宝电商收入超过5000亿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>则高达9000多亿(含自营)。从体量上看,拼多多的增长空间依然在,更重要的是,拼多多的商业模式和创新玩法,让它有能力继续争取到更多的市场空间。</p><p>这正是拼多多的增长逻辑之一。</p><p><strong>而另一个,则是更为广阔的海外市场。</strong></p><p><strong>02、出海:强大的新增长曲线</strong></p><p>2022年9月,拼多多B2C跨境电商平台Temu正式在北美市场上线。</p><p>Temu完美沿袭了拼多多在国内的营销基因,甚至在玩法上更加给力。</p><p>在产品端,Temu主要覆盖服装、数码、家电、箱包、户外、玩具、文具等普通家庭最常用的商品,并且主打超高性价比、高折扣,尤其高现金奖励拉新的裂变营销玩法,让美国的普通消费者几乎毫无抵抗之力,甚至自觉成为了拉粉的主力。</p><p>同时在商家端,0佣金、0保证金,商家只需要发货入仓,无需承担履约和售后问题,后续的物流、运营、客服、推广与仓储均由拼多多承担。商家按照供货价进行人民币结算,更无需承担汇率波动风险,利润锁定确定性强,相对也很乐意成为供应商。</p><p><strong>由此,拼多多掌握到了非常强大的供应商队伍(1400万商家),同时掌握了产品的议价权和运营权,再加上自身与极兔物流深度绑定完美解决了物流配送问题,把“人、货、场”三大根本要素完美结合起来。</strong></p><p>Temu一经推出,在极短时间内在美国卷起一股了营销拉新龙卷风。</p><p>据报道,Temu仅用了短短几个月,就超越了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、SHEIN、TikTok霸榜美国App下载榜第一。同时GMV数据也在飞速攀升,到今年1月,周度GMV已经稳定超过5000万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af3c58912fa3b7ae7f28350503719c29\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p><strong>据了解,今年3月,Temu的月活跃用户达1340万,已超越美国知名零售商Target,这个速度还在快速增长中。</strong></p><p>几个月就取得如此巨大的成绩,非常令人惊讶。</p><p>个人认为,拼多多的出海第一站之所以选择美国,确实是一个非常不错的切入低点和时点。</p><p>因为美国作为全球最大且最有钱的消费区,同时限制于持续的通胀问题让美国的普通消费者的可支配收入缩减,导致他们更加倾向于购买性价比高的商品,这就是所谓的口红效应。</p><p>说白了,拼多多电商开在美国市场,就是在对的时候,对的地点,把事情做对了。</p><p><strong>更重要的逻辑在于,拼多多的这一套打法,已经越来越成熟,在北美的成功,说明复制到国外完全没有任何“水土不服”甚至可能效果更好。如果接下来,它把这一套加速推到欧洲、非洲、和其他的地区,那么肯定也会收获一大波新的市场。</strong></p><p>甚至,如果后续拼多多把多多视频、社区零售甚至AI卖货这种玩法都做好并复制出去,那么在用户积累、降本增效和营收提升方面,还将有更大的增长。</p><p>这些都是在乐观预期条件下的想象空间,<strong>目前市场还没有给到这一部分的估值。</strong></p><p>当然了,拼多多的风险也不可忽视,比如temu会不会同样面临像tiktok在被美国监管限制的问题,以及其他竞争对手的联合围攻导致利润回报时间被拉长。</p><p>但目前形势看,这种可能性还比较小,毕竟欧美陷入高通胀的压力还长期存在,需要更多的供应端来缓解压力。而更关键的是,拼多多的这种打法已经在美国打开市场和品牌度,已经用越来越庞大的用户规模,其实是极难完全限制掉temu的。它跟TikTok还不大一样,本质上还只是影响用户的购物行为,在利益至上的美国,只要能帮它缓解通胀,以及后续如果在本地建立供应链,进而给美国带来更多的税收和就业岗位,那没,完全没有理由限制。</p><p>而在欧洲,非洲,亚洲等其他地区的市场,更是基本不会有这样的风险。</p><p><strong>至于竞争对手,东南亚的新秀的这些,目前看来虽然也在相互抄作业,有些背后也有大佬支持,但与拼多多的差距还是很明显的,尤其在获客打法、供应链的厂商和物流团队,拼多多的优势根本很难炒的过去。</strong></p><p><strong>拼多多的裂变式获客模式,以及极致性价比和售后体验,不是谁都能学到的。</strong></p><p>所以在拼多多的出海业务这一块,至少未来几年大概率都还会带来更多的惊喜,成为一条新增长曲线。</p><p><strong>03、估值具有吸引力,机构一致看高超50%</strong></p><p>首先,拼多多在此前最巅峰的时候,股价一度超过200美元。彼时,国内对互联网行业的监管叠加疫情冲击的后遗症还没有显露出来,但同样的,拼多多的新增长点也还没有出现。</p><p><strong>到现在,拼多多的股价不到70美元,动态PE为18倍,即使是静态PE,也只有20倍出头,这样的估值水平,不仅远低于自己的历史记录,也显著低于美股的同行。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15169ddf3f6dd370c82893100439770d\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"480\"/></p><p>虽然目前国内的电商行业确实还承受着宏观经济下行压力的影响,但客观来讲,互联网电商的确实已经比较充分预期了这个因素,比如淘宝、京东的估值也只有20多倍出头。</p><p>现在国家对互联网行业的监管整顿结束,并态度上转为支持平台经济发展,同时还在大力出台有力政策去拉动国民经济增长,电商行业实质已经度过最艰难时期,后续大概率就是回暖的趋势,还剩下的只是强弱区别。</p><p>所以,电商平台的下行空间应该不大了。</p><p>对于拼多多,之所以可以给予更多的预期。</p><p>正式在于它在视频、社区电商尤其出海等领域的切入,确实在取得非常明显的增量,并且这些还是才刚开始不久,后面已经打开很大的想象空间,并且机构也乐于给到相应的预期。</p><p>比如,一季度,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>、Assenagon资产管理、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>资产管理、施罗德投资管理等不少明星机构在排队进场加仓。拼多多还是景林的头号重仓股,而高瓴也在一季度对拼多多增持了2.6倍多,成为其美股持仓的第二大重仓。</p><p><strong>近一个月,国内已有至少12家机构对拼多多发布研报预测,目标价一致性预期给出了超过100美元的目标价,距离当前股价幅度超过50%。</strong></p><p>看好的态度是非常明显的。</p><p><strong>04、总结</strong></p><p>总的来说,我们之所以在这个时点看好拼多多,是因为后者确实有太多值得期待的并经过了市场考验的硬逻辑。</p><p>尽管在未来一两年甚至更长的时间里,全球经济形势可能依然还面临巨大压力,电商行业也会因此可能会更加内卷,但拼多多确实是体现出了比较不错的逆增长趋势。</p><p>拼多多的模式,相比其他的对手在经济弱衰退周期有更好的抗压能力。这两年,无论国内外,都有不少电商被洗下牌桌,唯独它不但在业务布局、供应链体系、平台生态方面做出了很大的进步,还在海外市场逆势扩张,真正打造了第二增长曲线。</p><p>而这些优势还在不断积累着,再加上目前它的估值水平较为低估,我们有理由相信,它未来的上行空间大概率是值得去期待的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于拼多多会不会真按照我们或者机构所预想的那样走下去,不妨给多点时间一起等待验证。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson 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ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151121944","content_text":"经济不好,生意难做,就连互联网大厂也是如此。但有一个例外,拼多多。5月26日,拼多多发布了今年Q1业绩,营收为376亿,同比增速惊人,达到58%,超过市场预期。注意!这只是营收,还不是净利润。简单对比另外几大电商平台,同期营收增长基本限于停滞,拼多多能够取得这样炸裂的增长,不得不说是一种成就。说到净利润,增速同样很高,归母净利润为81亿元,同比增长212%,Non-GAAP归母净利润则达到101亿元,同比增长141%,这样的增长幅度,几乎是同行7-8倍。经营利润率也在快速抬升,从去年同期的9.05%,翻倍上涨至18.41%。而且,同行只能靠降本增效,艰难地做出净利润增长,但拼多多却不断展现出自己依然是成长股的特性。业绩公布当晚,拼多多狂飙18个点。拼多多的投资价值,正在重新获得市场认可。01、最能打的电商模式关于拼多多的逆势增长,很多人会有疑问:凭什么?其实,答案再简单不过,那就是商业模式好。拼多多从成立、上市,甚至到现在,都伴随着不少质疑声,甚至有嘲笑拼多多说成拼夕夕的。但无可否认,这些年下来,拼多多不断给用户提供物美价廉商品,如苹果手机、小米手机,这些并非山寨货。即使起家之初,确实也存在山寨货问题,但不要忘了它也是一直不断成长,不断改善改进各种问题,让自己变得越来越正规且强大。所以对于拼多多的看法,不能简单地沿用过去的假货思维,更不能简单地认为只是兜售便宜货的电商平台。事实上,目前拼多多的商品包罗万象,品类已不输任何一个大型综合型电商平台。而真正能打的,是拼多多的商业模式。组团、砍价、便宜,是拼多多与生俱来的营销基因,但这些基因,或许才是最能打动消费者心智的东西。特别是当下,全球经济都不是很好,用户消费起来也没有过去经济好的时候那么大手大脚,省着花成了大家的习惯。在这种情况下,拼多多的“便宜”就有天然的吸引力。这其实也是沃尔玛商业模式的“中国化”、“线上化”。上世纪1970-1980年代,美国深陷通货膨胀危机,居民消费受到严重挤压,传统的商品销售渠道也受到打击,但危机却为折扣店行业带来机会,沃尔玛就是这一时期折扣店的标杆。更重要的是,沃尔玛在折扣店行业站稳脚跟之后,并不是简单粗暴地通过垄断销售渠道去压榨供应商,而是通过更高维度的“升级”,如成本端-高效的自身管理提升效率,控制成本,利用灵活的不动产管理及时回笼资金进行物业的滚动开发,缓解资金压力,减少对外融资需求,伙伴式的人力资源管理一方面提升员工归属感和工作效能,等等,去为用户提供真正便宜的商品,同时实现和产业链伙伴的共赢。与此同时,沃尔玛也抓住经济全球化的红利,积极扩张海外市场。1990年,沃尔玛正式超越百年零售企业西尔斯,成为全美第一大零售企业。如今,它已经连续多年成为全球第一零售企业。除了深得沃尔玛的商业模式精髓,拼多多在具体实施上,增加了很多创新性,如组团+砍价模式,相比传统电商单个个体采购的形式,更容易短时间内抢夺到大量用户,同样的案例如当年微信支付采用红包方式偷袭支付宝类似,用户在持续尝到甜头之后,就会对平台产生粘性,从而得以维持流量池。凭借这个模式,拼多多早在2021年第三季度的活跃买家数达到8.673亿,平均月活跃用户数达7.415亿,成功超越昔日老大淘宝。更重要的是,拼多多只用了6年,超过有17年历史的淘宝。现在,从用户数上看,一跃成为中国第一电商平台。同时,在各类新玩法涌现的今天,拼多多也积极拥抱变化,短视频、直播带货已经成为平台经营的必选项。另一方面,拼多多对于供应链的培育,也是其商业模式得以走通的重要因素。如深坑农业供应链,通过数字化技术手段升级农业生产、流通、销售等各个环节,既能响应国家号召,规避政策风险,同时容易获得政策红利,最后夯实自身的供应链体系,实现自主可控。虽然国内电商行业整体上步入瓶颈期,内卷也越来越大,但拼多多的商业模式已经被验证是能打的,它符合人性中对于“便宜”的追求,也能够持续维持用户粘性,甚至可以继续抢占竞争对手的用户。而其他电商公司的各种尝试,比如主打富人阶层、中产阶级、城市白领,最后的结果都不如拼多多直接给“便宜”简单和有效。2022年,拼多多的营收只有1305亿,淘宝电商收入超过5000亿,京东则高达9000多亿(含自营)。从体量上看,拼多多的增长空间依然在,更重要的是,拼多多的商业模式和创新玩法,让它有能力继续争取到更多的市场空间。这正是拼多多的增长逻辑之一。而另一个,则是更为广阔的海外市场。02、出海:强大的新增长曲线2022年9月,拼多多B2C跨境电商平台Temu正式在北美市场上线。Temu完美沿袭了拼多多在国内的营销基因,甚至在玩法上更加给力。在产品端,Temu主要覆盖服装、数码、家电、箱包、户外、玩具、文具等普通家庭最常用的商品,并且主打超高性价比、高折扣,尤其高现金奖励拉新的裂变营销玩法,让美国的普通消费者几乎毫无抵抗之力,甚至自觉成为了拉粉的主力。同时在商家端,0佣金、0保证金,商家只需要发货入仓,无需承担履约和售后问题,后续的物流、运营、客服、推广与仓储均由拼多多承担。商家按照供货价进行人民币结算,更无需承担汇率波动风险,利润锁定确定性强,相对也很乐意成为供应商。由此,拼多多掌握到了非常强大的供应商队伍(1400万商家),同时掌握了产品的议价权和运营权,再加上自身与极兔物流深度绑定完美解决了物流配送问题,把“人、货、场”三大根本要素完美结合起来。Temu一经推出,在极短时间内在美国卷起一股了营销拉新龙卷风。据报道,Temu仅用了短短几个月,就超越了亚马逊、SHEIN、TikTok霸榜美国App下载榜第一。同时GMV数据也在飞速攀升,到今年1月,周度GMV已经稳定超过5000万美元。据了解,今年3月,Temu的月活跃用户达1340万,已超越美国知名零售商Target,这个速度还在快速增长中。几个月就取得如此巨大的成绩,非常令人惊讶。个人认为,拼多多的出海第一站之所以选择美国,确实是一个非常不错的切入低点和时点。因为美国作为全球最大且最有钱的消费区,同时限制于持续的通胀问题让美国的普通消费者的可支配收入缩减,导致他们更加倾向于购买性价比高的商品,这就是所谓的口红效应。说白了,拼多多电商开在美国市场,就是在对的时候,对的地点,把事情做对了。更重要的逻辑在于,拼多多的这一套打法,已经越来越成熟,在北美的成功,说明复制到国外完全没有任何“水土不服”甚至可能效果更好。如果接下来,它把这一套加速推到欧洲、非洲、和其他的地区,那么肯定也会收获一大波新的市场。甚至,如果后续拼多多把多多视频、社区零售甚至AI卖货这种玩法都做好并复制出去,那么在用户积累、降本增效和营收提升方面,还将有更大的增长。这些都是在乐观预期条件下的想象空间,目前市场还没有给到这一部分的估值。当然了,拼多多的风险也不可忽视,比如temu会不会同样面临像tiktok在被美国监管限制的问题,以及其他竞争对手的联合围攻导致利润回报时间被拉长。但目前形势看,这种可能性还比较小,毕竟欧美陷入高通胀的压力还长期存在,需要更多的供应端来缓解压力。而更关键的是,拼多多的这种打法已经在美国打开市场和品牌度,已经用越来越庞大的用户规模,其实是极难完全限制掉temu的。它跟TikTok还不大一样,本质上还只是影响用户的购物行为,在利益至上的美国,只要能帮它缓解通胀,以及后续如果在本地建立供应链,进而给美国带来更多的税收和就业岗位,那没,完全没有理由限制。而在欧洲,非洲,亚洲等其他地区的市场,更是基本不会有这样的风险。至于竞争对手,东南亚的新秀的这些,目前看来虽然也在相互抄作业,有些背后也有大佬支持,但与拼多多的差距还是很明显的,尤其在获客打法、供应链的厂商和物流团队,拼多多的优势根本很难炒的过去。拼多多的裂变式获客模式,以及极致性价比和售后体验,不是谁都能学到的。所以在拼多多的出海业务这一块,至少未来几年大概率都还会带来更多的惊喜,成为一条新增长曲线。03、估值具有吸引力,机构一致看高超50%首先,拼多多在此前最巅峰的时候,股价一度超过200美元。彼时,国内对互联网行业的监管叠加疫情冲击的后遗症还没有显露出来,但同样的,拼多多的新增长点也还没有出现。到现在,拼多多的股价不到70美元,动态PE为18倍,即使是静态PE,也只有20倍出头,这样的估值水平,不仅远低于自己的历史记录,也显著低于美股的同行。虽然目前国内的电商行业确实还承受着宏观经济下行压力的影响,但客观来讲,互联网电商的确实已经比较充分预期了这个因素,比如淘宝、京东的估值也只有20多倍出头。现在国家对互联网行业的监管整顿结束,并态度上转为支持平台经济发展,同时还在大力出台有力政策去拉动国民经济增长,电商行业实质已经度过最艰难时期,后续大概率就是回暖的趋势,还剩下的只是强弱区别。所以,电商平台的下行空间应该不大了。对于拼多多,之所以可以给予更多的预期。正式在于它在视频、社区电商尤其出海等领域的切入,确实在取得非常明显的增量,并且这些还是才刚开始不久,后面已经打开很大的想象空间,并且机构也乐于给到相应的预期。比如,一季度,摩根士丹利、Assenagon资产管理、瑞银资产管理、施罗德投资管理等不少明星机构在排队进场加仓。拼多多还是景林的头号重仓股,而高瓴也在一季度对拼多多增持了2.6倍多,成为其美股持仓的第二大重仓。近一个月,国内已有至少12家机构对拼多多发布研报预测,目标价一致性预期给出了超过100美元的目标价,距离当前股价幅度超过50%。看好的态度是非常明显的。04、总结总的来说,我们之所以在这个时点看好拼多多,是因为后者确实有太多值得期待的并经过了市场考验的硬逻辑。尽管在未来一两年甚至更长的时间里,全球经济形势可能依然还面临巨大压力,电商行业也会因此可能会更加内卷,但拼多多确实是体现出了比较不错的逆增长趋势。拼多多的模式,相比其他的对手在经济弱衰退周期有更好的抗压能力。这两年,无论国内外,都有不少电商被洗下牌桌,唯独它不但在业务布局、供应链体系、平台生态方面做出了很大的进步,还在海外市场逆势扩张,真正打造了第二增长曲线。而这些优势还在不断积累着,再加上目前它的估值水平较为低估,我们有理由相信,它未来的上行空间大概率是值得去期待的。至于拼多多会不会真按照我们或者机构所预想的那样走下去,不妨给多点时间一起等待验证。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617312276,"gmtCreate":1654062777099,"gmtModify":1704858683654,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ </a>千古罪人小拜登","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ </a>千古罪人小拜登","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$ 千古罪人小拜登","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617312276","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616821651,"gmtCreate":1651689594505,"gmtModify":1651689594505,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","listText":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","text":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616821651","repostId":"1114813153","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3584622294780321","authorId":"3584622294780321","name":"划水_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef4189f792605e8277fcbaea7a770d05","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3584622294780321","authorIdStr":"3584622294780321"},"content":"三月份说预期有可能50,最后来了25,五月说有可能75,来了个50。六月……","text":"三月份说预期有可能50,最后来了25,五月说有可能75,来了个50。六月……","html":"三月份说预期有可能50,最后来了25,五月说有可能75,来了个50。六月……"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860707324,"gmtCreate":1632207598368,"gmtModify":1632207598368,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真的想救公司的话,就把自己的几千亿私房钱拿出来吧,否则都是骗人的[得意] ","listText":"真的想救公司的话,就把自己的几千亿私房钱拿出来吧,否则都是骗人的[得意] ","text":"真的想救公司的话,就把自己的几千亿私房钱拿出来吧,否则都是骗人的[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860707324","repostId":"2169682459","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2169682459","pubTimestamp":1632189960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2169682459?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 10:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"许家印中秋致信恒大全员:全力以赴履行好社会责任","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169682459","media":"乐居财经","summary":"【许家印中秋致信恒大全员:全力以赴履行好社会责任】9月21日中秋节,一封许家印写给恒大全体员工的“家书”曝光。在信中,许家印深情感谢员工的辛苦付出,向员工家属致敬,并坚信恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,加快推进全面复工复产,实现“保交楼”目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。(乐居财经)","content":"<p>9月21日中秋节,一封许家印写给恒大全体员工的“家书”曝光。在信中,许家印深情感谢员工的辛苦付出,向员工家属致敬,并坚信恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,加快推进全面复工复产,实现“保交楼”目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。</p>\n<p><b>附:许家印“家书”全文</b></p>\n<p>各级领导、各位同事:</p>\n<p>值此中秋佳节,我衷心祝愿你们及家人节日快乐、阖家安康!向仍然奋战在复工复产第一线的全体员工致以最诚挚的问候!</p>\n<p>当前,公司遇到了前所未有的巨大困难,全体恒大员工都经受着从未有过的严峻挑战。各级领导排除万难、身先士卒、没日没夜,是保障公司大局稳定的中流砥柱。在这里,我向大家致以最真诚的感谢,向支持你们、默默承受了巨大牺牲的家人致以最崇高的敬意!</p>\n<p>一直以来,我为公司拥有一支忠心耿耿、任劳任怨、不计得失的恒大铁军,感到无比自豪。我坚信,恒大人永不服输、越挫越强的精神,是我们战胜一切困难的力量之源!我更加坚信,通过各级领导和全体员工的共同努力、艰苦奋斗,恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,一定能加快推进全面复工复产,一定能实现“保交楼”的重大目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。</p>\n<p>人心齐,泰山移!同事们,让我们更加紧密团结起来,以百折不挠的勇气,坚韧不拔的精神,全力以赴履行好我们的社会责任,共同创造美好的未来!</p>\n<p>许家印</p>\n<p>2021年9月21日</p>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>许家印中秋致信恒大全员:全力以赴履行好社会责任</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n许家印中秋致信恒大全员:全力以赴履行好社会责任\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-21 10:06 北京时间 <a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202109212110999354_0.html><strong>乐居财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月21日中秋节,一封许家印写给恒大全体员工的“家书”曝光。在信中,许家印深情感谢员工的辛苦付出,向员工家属致敬,并坚信恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,加快推进全面复工复产,实现“保交楼”目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。\n附:许家印“家书”全文\n各级领导、各位同事:\n值此中秋佳节,我衷心祝愿你们及家人节日快乐、阖家安康!向仍然奋战在复工复产第一线的全体员工致以最...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202109212110999354_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00b07da4062e585448ca1db5a4d21326","relate_stocks":{"161912":"社会责任","03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202109212110999354_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169682459","content_text":"9月21日中秋节,一封许家印写给恒大全体员工的“家书”曝光。在信中,许家印深情感谢员工的辛苦付出,向员工家属致敬,并坚信恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,加快推进全面复工复产,实现“保交楼”目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。\n附:许家印“家书”全文\n各级领导、各位同事:\n值此中秋佳节,我衷心祝愿你们及家人节日快乐、阖家安康!向仍然奋战在复工复产第一线的全体员工致以最诚挚的问候!\n当前,公司遇到了前所未有的巨大困难,全体恒大员工都经受着从未有过的严峻挑战。各级领导排除万难、身先士卒、没日没夜,是保障公司大局稳定的中流砥柱。在这里,我向大家致以最真诚的感谢,向支持你们、默默承受了巨大牺牲的家人致以最崇高的敬意!\n一直以来,我为公司拥有一支忠心耿耿、任劳任怨、不计得失的恒大铁军,感到无比自豪。我坚信,恒大人永不服输、越挫越强的精神,是我们战胜一切困难的力量之源!我更加坚信,通过各级领导和全体员工的共同努力、艰苦奋斗,恒大一定能尽快走出至暗时刻,一定能加快推进全面复工复产,一定能实现“保交楼”的重大目标,向购房者、投资者、合作伙伴和金融机构交出一份敢担当、负责任的答卷。\n人心齐,泰山移!同事们,让我们更加紧密团结起来,以百折不挠的勇气,坚韧不拔的精神,全力以赴履行好我们的社会责任,共同创造美好的未来!\n许家印\n2021年9月21日","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":159720731,"gmtCreate":1624980906223,"gmtModify":1624980906223,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>SB","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>SB","text":"$每日优鲜(MF)$SB","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159720731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2049,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189006901,"gmtCreate":1623230327103,"gmtModify":1623230327103,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562940056548114","authorIdStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"嘴上力挺,实际都在出货<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a>","listText":"嘴上力挺,实际都在出货<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">$中国恒大(03333)$</a>","text":"嘴上力挺,实际都在出货$中国恒大(03333)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189006901","repostId":"2142388218","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2142388218","pubTimestamp":1623229088,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2142388218?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 16:58","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"摩根大通上调评级后 恒大再获银河联昌看好","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142388218","media":"智通财经","summary":"继摩根大通上调评级至“增持”后,中国恒大(03333)再获国际投行力挺。6月9日,银河联昌发布研报称,“总体而言,恒大流动性不足的可能性不高。”该行分析:1、2021年1-5月,恒大录得预售回 ...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p> 继<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>上调评级至“增持”后,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03333\">中国恒大</a>(03333)再获国际投行力挺。6月9日,银河联昌发布研报称,“总体而言,恒大流动性不足的可能性不高。”该行分析:</p><p> 1、2021年1-5月,恒大录得预售回款约2500亿元人民币;其土地开支同比下降 50至60%;</p><p> 2、恒大集团管理层此前曾表明,集团总负债从2020年底的7000亿人民币降至2021年上半年少于6000 亿人民币;</p><p> 3、预计其净负债率将从2020年的153%降到2021年上半年的120-130%左右,并在2021年底进一步降至100%以下。</p><p> 银河联昌对恒大财务状况保持积极看法,认为目前的整体财务状况与其去年8月比已有大幅提升。并表示如果近期恒大股价下跌,可能是买入其股票的好机会。</p><p contenteditable=\"false\"><img src=\"https://e.thsi.cn/img/755b1a68aaaf17cb\"/></p>\n<p><strong>关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>财经(ths518),获取更多机会</strong></p>\n<span></span>\n<div><span>责任编辑:cjh</span></div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"tonghuashun","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通上调评级后 恒大再获银河联昌看好</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210609/c630066631.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecccb954c9a03cd26d576ebec5c96d6","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"http://stock.10jqka.com.cn/hks/20210609/c630066631.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/f0343184bd9b9c963ed02b302442e2b8","article_id":"2142388218","content_text":"继摩根大通上调评级至“增持”后,中国恒大(03333)再获国际投行力挺。6月9日,银河联昌发布研报称,“总体而言,恒大流动性不足的可能性不高。”该行分析: 1、2021年1-5月,恒大录得预售回款约2500亿元人民币;其土地开支同比下降 50至60%; 2、恒大集团管理层此前曾表明,集团总负债从2020年底的7000亿人民币降至2021年上半年少于6000 亿人民币; 3、预计其净负债率将从2020年的153%降到2021年上半年的120-130%左右,并在2021年底进一步降至100%以下。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06998\">$嘉和生物-B(06998)$</a>1200多的时候没卖,最后只剩120多🌝🌝","text":"$嘉和生物-B(06998)$1200多的时候没卖,最后只剩120多🌝🌝","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a149440b60d6c125fd7e5f7f64d0bb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300357930","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616821651,"gmtCreate":1651689594505,"gmtModify":1651689594505,"author":{"id":"3562940056548114","authorId":"3562940056548114","name":"广东小脑斧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a2370bf646734d7b06dbbd1237b705","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3562940056548114","idStr":"3562940056548114"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","listText":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","text":"现在的预期是75,你说50是选项,那么25个都有可能,大利好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616821651","repostId":"1114813153","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114813153","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1651689433,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114813153?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-05 02:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储主席鲍威尔排除加息75个基点的可能","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114813153","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月5日,美联储主席鲍威尔排除了加息75个基点的可能性;75个基点的加息并不值得考虑;广义上来讲,接下来几次会议应该加息50个基点;可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点;FOMC估计中性利率在2%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月5日,美联储主席鲍威尔排除了加息75个基点的可能性;75个基点的加息并不值得考虑;广义上来讲,接下来几次会议应该加息50个基点;可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点;FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。</p><p>美股继续冲高,三大股指均涨超2%;美股大型科技股涨幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>均涨超2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51549e7190f97f9c9160ae322671bc46\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔:美国通胀太高;FOMC正迅速行动,以期压低通胀;FOMC有工具来压低美国通胀;劳动力市场极度紧俏。</p><p>预计正在进行的一系列加息行动是适宜的;FOMC认为在接下来的几次会议上,加息50个基点是可能的。</p><p>我们正在迅速将政策利率提高到更正常的水平;缩减资产负债表也将发挥重要作用。</p><p>通货膨胀显然超出预期,通胀仍有可能进一步超预期。</p><p>俄乌冲突影响高度不确定;俄乌冲突可能会抑制国外经济,对美国产生溢出效应。</p><p>FOMC看到更多人回到劳动力队伍,失业率可能进一步下降;存在让劳动力市场的需求温和,而失业率不会上升的路径;美联储有一个软着陆的“好机会”,看起来并没有接近经济衰退。</p><p>我们距离中性利率还很远;将在达到中性利率的时候决定加息至多高。</p><p>缩表影响不明确;6月1日作为缩减资产负债表的开始日期“没什么神奇的”,只是我们选择的日期。</p><p><b>即时市场评论</b></p><p>高级编辑Anstey:美联储主席鲍威尔并没有具体表示存在经济衰退的风险,但他的语气听起来似乎没有以前那么有信心实现软着陆——即通胀下降不引发经济下滑。</p><p>National Securities首席市场策略师霍根:预计美国股市出现波动。(市场)直接的反应通胀很汹涌,今天的也不例外。整体上,FOMC传达的信息非常符合共识。没有听到美联储加息75个基点的消息,可能对市场有利。</p><p>凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth:美联储决定6月开始定量缩表,预计住房抵押贷款支持证券的全面出售将于明年初开始。</p><p>Allspring Global资管公司高级投资策略师Jacobsen:关键的问题在于美联储可以在多长时间内以其计划的速度进行量化紧缩。美联储可能在未来2年缩表2万亿美元,然后就不得不放弃缩表。</p><p>Kingsview资管公司投资组合经理Nolte:整体来看,市场状况与预期情况一致。美联储没有表现得比预期更鹰派。美联储正在采取中间立场,缩表没有意外,这一点市场是可以接受的。</p><p>Caxton市场情报主管Michael Brown:美联储自2000年以来首次加息50个基点在意料之中,令人惊讶的是超级大鹰派布拉德没有投票支持更大幅度的加息;FOMC还暗示将积极进一步加息,重申了尽快将利率上调至中性水平的意愿;但市场已经消化了大幅加息,美联储鹰派的门槛一直很高。因此,尽管美联储的决定本身是鹰派的,但与市场的高预期相比,这一决定有些温和,从而引发风险资产反弹,导致美元走软,这是典型的买预期、卖事实,同时也刺激了对美国国债的需求。</p><p>彭博经济编辑Arnold:按照今天公布的计划,彭博经济研究预计美联储今年的缩表规模大约为5000亿美元,资产负债表占GDP比重将从2022年第一季度的36.6%降低至2024年底的23%,从而接近疫情前的水平。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储主席鲍威尔排除加息75个基点的可能</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储主席鲍威尔排除加息75个基点的可能\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-05 02:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月5日,美联储主席鲍威尔排除了加息75个基点的可能性;75个基点的加息并不值得考虑;广义上来讲,接下来几次会议应该加息50个基点;可能会在加息50个基点之后加息25个基点;FOMC估计中性利率在2%至3%之间。</p><p>美股继续冲高,三大股指均涨超2%;美股大型科技股涨幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Meta Platforms</a>涨超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>均涨超2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51549e7190f97f9c9160ae322671bc46\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔:美国通胀太高;FOMC正迅速行动,以期压低通胀;FOMC有工具来压低美国通胀;劳动力市场极度紧俏。</p><p>预计正在进行的一系列加息行动是适宜的;FOMC认为在接下来的几次会议上,加息50个基点是可能的。</p><p>我们正在迅速将政策利率提高到更正常的水平;缩减资产负债表也将发挥重要作用。</p><p>通货膨胀显然超出预期,通胀仍有可能进一步超预期。</p><p>俄乌冲突影响高度不确定;俄乌冲突可能会抑制国外经济,对美国产生溢出效应。</p><p>FOMC看到更多人回到劳动力队伍,失业率可能进一步下降;存在让劳动力市场的需求温和,而失业率不会上升的路径;美联储有一个软着陆的“好机会”,看起来并没有接近经济衰退。</p><p>我们距离中性利率还很远;将在达到中性利率的时候决定加息至多高。</p><p>缩表影响不明确;6月1日作为缩减资产负债表的开始日期“没什么神奇的”,只是我们选择的日期。</p><p><b>即时市场评论</b></p><p>高级编辑Anstey:美联储主席鲍威尔并没有具体表示存在经济衰退的风险,但他的语气听起来似乎没有以前那么有信心实现软着陆——即通胀下降不引发经济下滑。</p><p>National Securities首席市场策略师霍根:预计美国股市出现波动。(市场)直接的反应通胀很汹涌,今天的也不例外。整体上,FOMC传达的信息非常符合共识。没有听到美联储加息75个基点的消息,可能对市场有利。</p><p>凯投宏观分析师Paul Ashworth:美联储决定6月开始定量缩表,预计住房抵押贷款支持证券的全面出售将于明年初开始。</p><p>Allspring Global资管公司高级投资策略师Jacobsen:关键的问题在于美联储可以在多长时间内以其计划的速度进行量化紧缩。美联储可能在未来2年缩表2万亿美元,然后就不得不放弃缩表。</p><p>Kingsview资管公司投资组合经理Nolte:整体来看,市场状况与预期情况一致。美联储没有表现得比预期更鹰派。美联储正在采取中间立场,缩表没有意外,这一点市场是可以接受的。</p><p>Caxton市场情报主管Michael Brown:美联储自2000年以来首次加息50个基点在意料之中,令人惊讶的是超级大鹰派布拉德没有投票支持更大幅度的加息;FOMC还暗示将积极进一步加息,重申了尽快将利率上调至中性水平的意愿;但市场已经消化了大幅加息,美联储鹰派的门槛一直很高。因此,尽管美联储的决定本身是鹰派的,但与市场的高预期相比,这一决定有些温和,从而引发风险资产反弹,导致美元走软,这是典型的买预期、卖事实,同时也刺激了对美国国债的需求。</p><p>彭博经济编辑Arnold:按照今天公布的计划,彭博经济研究预计美联储今年的缩表规模大约为5000亿美元,资产负债表占GDP比重将从2022年第一季度的36.6%降低至2024年底的23%,从而接近疫情前的水平。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62dafa537afba542bdc43da1b85df8b4","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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