飛呀的个人主页 - 老虎社区

飛呀

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IP属地：广东

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7主题

0勋章

2022-06-23

那还是回到农耕时代吧[喷血]

美联储为何不敢救美股？

2022-04-05

每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-31

低调了低调了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-24

国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？

外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退

2021-12-16

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴又出事了，建议大家先回避吧。声明：本人没有做空！

2021-12-01

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$上当了，卧槽。。。巨亏

2021-09-02

$Ferroglobe PLC(GSM)$推票是违法的

2021-08-05

$富途控股(FUTU)$又追高了。。。每天挨锤子

2021-08-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$我想问一下，这个公司是游戏公司吗？？？你们为什么要砸小破站？？？

2021-07-07

$小米集团-W(01810)$这么多刷屏碎股的？？什么情况

2021-06-26

$每日优鲜(MF)$越晚开盘，越少抛盘，会玩

2021-05-21

$贝壳(BEKE)$很多人憎恨中介，觉得他们刻意制造信息差牟利，这话没错。

2021-04-29

$中远海控(01919)$今晚披露一季报，明天拉高出货，逻辑清晰，事实成立

2021-04-25

b站跌停？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-25

淘宝划线促销价是否也应该罚款啊？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$媒体36氪真不是东西，随便放出来消息，割了2次韭菜，真会玩啊

2021-03-18

$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$35了兄弟们，搞起来

2021-03-12

$涂鸦智能(TUYA)$据说18号敲钟，祝大家好运

2021-03-11

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 举报杀猪盘，还我血汗钱

2021-03-11

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 杀猪盘又开始了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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tg-width=\"1089\"/><span>图：美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化（来源：美联储）</span></p><p>考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶，2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。</p><p>此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定，美联储有\"看跌期权\"，不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏，美股上涨的副作用已经显现，美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。</p><p><b>美股涨太多，都没人愿意干活了？</b></p><p>根据美联储数据显示，美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金，而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6fff708501e31bfde5fcbf666ef1ed\" tg-height=\"511\" tg-width=\"1098\"/></p><p>而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\"，养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。</p><p>美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市，为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来，当养老金赚的\"太多了\"，这可能让更多人，尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。</p><p>而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看，20多年来，在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下，美股涨幅巨大，尤其以纳斯达克为首，20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ae51f632b488b5e3ae2fefd15f0b22\" tg-height=\"755\" tg-width=\"1107\"/></p><p>需要注意的是，劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口（包括就业和在找工作的失业人数）相对适龄劳动人口（16-64岁人口）的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿，受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。</p><p>可以看出，<b>由于财富增值效应显著，近20年来，尤其是08年金融危机后，全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨，劳动参与率也快速下滑，意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。</b></p><p>这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面，加速了美国薪资的增长，为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。</p><p>另外，从长期数据来看，这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿，也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右，降至疫情前2%左右水平，但失业率低点却更低了。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8b6cf636e99116ca7a0ff2f039e030\" tg-height=\"756\" tg-width=\"1109\"/></p><p>在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期，这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏，从而更易于涨薪，进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。</p><p><b>给美股降温，也是在</b>\"<b>帮助</b>\"<b>劳动力加速返岗</b></p><p>由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作，在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下，美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益，可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。</p><p>从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例（1-劳动参与率）来看，除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外，2018年及2022年的美股下跌，都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be719aaba590412cc9c8f6b0b1b4071\" tg-height=\"752\" tg-width=\"1110\"/></p><p>这很可能说明，股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。</p><p><b>因此，本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强，甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗，以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。</b></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1646046088746","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>美联储为何不敢救美股？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储为何不敢救美股？\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-22 22:34 北京时间   <a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\"><strong>见闻VIP会员</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨，令美国劳动参与率持续降低，降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值，令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场，或财务自由，或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌，虽令美股居民资产缩水，但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势，帮助改善劳动力供给短缺；而如果维护美股，则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的...</p>\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/urRTjpdQp6P3QNKued-zAg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122450899","content_text":"长期以来美股的持续、较快上涨，令美国劳动参与率持续降低，降幅较为明显。显示出包括股票投资、养老金在内的资产增值，令越来越多的美国劳动力离开劳动力市场，或财务自由，或压力减轻提前退休。目前美股暴跌，虽令美股居民资产缩水，但也有好处——\"帮助\"劳动力加速返回劳动力市场。这有助于扭转劳动力离开劳动力市场的趋势，帮助改善劳动力供给短缺；而如果维护美股，则可能加剧劳动力供给短缺。这可能也是美联储不敢救美股的原因之一。美股一直涨也是有副作用的？在6月份美国CPI数据创40年新高，加息预期升温后，美股再度大幅跳水，截至6月17日，标普500、道指、纳指年内跌幅分别达到22.90%、17.75%和30.98%。纳斯达克自本轮高点最大回撤幅度达到35%，已经超过了2020年新冠疫情时期的最大回撤。而且，与彼时不同，美联储已不可能再\"大放水\"救市了，美股的下行周期似乎仍未结束。见闻VIP此前提到，由于美国家庭资产与养老金深度\"绑定\"，美股暴跌令美国家庭财富缩水。根据美联储数据显示，一季度房地产等资产价格上涨，但公司股票带来的权益类资产缩水较为严重。图：美国家庭和非盈利组织净资产变化（来源：美联储）考虑到2季度美股跌的比1季度更凶，2季度该项缩水还会继续加大。此前市场一直认为由于美股与养老金深度绑定，美联储有\"看跌期权\"，不会放任美股下跌。但随着通胀上升、劳动力市场紧俏，美股上涨的副作用已经显现，美联储放弃\"看跌期权\"也另有深意。美股涨太多，都没人愿意干活了？根据美联储数据显示，美国富人的资产中比例最大的部分为公司股票、共同基金，而中产财富主要集中于股票、基金和养老金当中。而美国的养老金与美股\"深度绑定\"，养老金中超过60%的比例配置在权益市场。美股的长牛吸引了更大比例的养老金入市，为养老金带来了丰厚的回报。但问题也随之而来，当养老金赚的\"太多了\"，这可能让更多人，尤其是中产阶级摸到了\"财务自由\"门槛、或者说\"养老无忧\"。而这也会降低居民参与劳动的意愿。从美国的劳动参与率和股市的走势来看，20多年来，在\"科技互联网\"高速发展的红利之下，美股涨幅巨大，尤其以纳斯达克为首，20年间最大涨幅超过十倍。股票投资、养老金快速增值带来的巨大财富增值效应也令美国的劳动参与率显著下滑。从2000年的67%降至目前的62%附近。需要注意的是，劳动参与率统计的是愿意参与劳动的人口（包括就业和在找工作的失业人数）相对适龄劳动人口（16-64岁人口）的比例。该数值主要反应适龄劳动力的工作意愿，受人口结构变化、尤其是人口老龄化的影响并不显著。可以看出，由于财富增值效应显著，近20年来，尤其是08年金融危机后，全球\"大放水\"导致美股加速上涨，劳动参与率也快速下滑，意味着这一轮财富增值令更多的人选择不工作或提前退休。这就加剧了近期美国劳动力市场紧俏的局面，加速了美国薪资的增长，为通胀进一步上升\"添砖加瓦\"。另外，从长期数据来看，这种趋势除了降低了美国居民的劳动意愿，也扭曲了经济数据的参考意义。美国的经济增速从2000年前的5%左右，降至疫情前2%左右水平，但失业率低点却更低了。在由供需不平衡引发的通胀上行时期，这种变化就令劳动力市场的供求关系更加紧俏，从而更易于涨薪，进而形成\"薪资-物价\"螺旋式上升循环。给美股降温，也是在\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗由于美股过去20年的财富效应令越来越多的人选择不工作，在当前大通胀、劳动力供给短缺的背景下，美联储如果在行使「看跌期权」保卫美国居民养老金利益，可能会反而加剧劳动力远离劳动力市场的趋势。从美国的劳动参与率与非劳动者比例（1-劳动参与率）来看，除了新冠疫情的特殊影响外，2018年及2022年的美股下跌，都造成了二者阶段性走阔——劳动人口增加、非劳动人口减少。这很可能说明，股市下跌的确推动了劳动力返回劳动力市场。因此，本轮美联储不仅不敢让美股走强，甚至还需要借助美股下跌的力量来\"帮助\"劳动力加速返岗，以改善劳动力供给不足的困境。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619122824,"gmtCreate":1649124206900,"gmtModify":1649125188850,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","listText":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","text":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619122824","repostId":"2225883307","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610277972,"gmtCreate":1648657101921,"gmtModify":1648657101921,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"低调了低调了","listText":"低调了低调了","text":"低调了低调了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610277972","repostId":"1146682157","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698399142,"gmtCreate":1640300996100,"gmtModify":1640300996100,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","listText":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","text":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698399142","repostId":"2193614027","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2193614027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640300623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2193614027?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 07:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2193614027","media":"新浪美股","summary":"美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。　　美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。","content":"<html><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n<b>1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>6、通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9537031f9733064edb283fb8f9c6a0\" tg-height=\"366\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高</b></p>\n<p>美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。</p>\n<p>美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，调整通胀因素后，11月份商品和服务购买额增幅与10月的0.7%基本持平。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。</p>\n<p>受供应链遇阻的消息影响，许多美国人今年开始假期购物的时间早于往年，一定程度上解释了前一个月消费支出增长强劲的原因。</p>\n<p>但消费者也面临着数十年来最猛烈的通胀。消费者在超市和加油站的购买力变弱，可用于购买非必需消费品的钱减少了。而且omicron变异株也可能遏制服务支出的反弹。</p>\n<p>美联储青睐的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较前月增长0.6%，同比增长5.7%，创下1982年以来最高水平。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a86ad7d405d41f26eaf4efacca793d2\" tg-height=\"309\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群</b></p>\n<p>默沙东的Covid-19口服药获得美国监管机构批准，在omicron变异株导致病例激增之际，为高风险患者提供了另一种居家治疗选择。</p>\n<p>在默沙东的molnupiravir获得紧急使用授权之前，美国周三已经批准了辉瑞公司的新冠口服药Paxlovid。它们带来新的希望，以免感染病例激增压垮美国的医院系统。</p>\n<p>默沙东与Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP共同开发的molnupiravir用于治疗18岁及以上年龄有重症风险的非住院Covid患者。一项研究表明，它使轻中度成年人的住院或死亡风险降低了30%。</p>\n<p>Molnupiravir的工作原理是在遗传物质中引入错误，最终阻止病毒复制，但可能会影响正在生长的人类细胞。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47825ae9cb248adf0684313ca0fcd911\" tg-height=\"391\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株</b></p>\n<p>英国政府表示，新冠病毒变异毒株omicron似乎比迄今为止的其他毒株严重性更低，但传染力更强。英国单日新增病例再创纪录，逼近12万例。</p>\n<p>英国卫生安全局（HSA）周四表示，omicron的感染者住院的可能性比德尔塔感染者低50-70%，急诊可能性也低31-45%。</p>\n<p>然而，HSA的数据显示，加强针虽然能够增强保护，但对omicron保护力消退的速度比对德尔塔更快，第三剂接种的10周后降低了15-25%。</p>\n<p>该机构还警告说，由于omicron变异株传染性高，仍然有可能出现大量重症患者，从而令医疗体系不堪重负。</p>\n<p>英国单日新增新冠病例连续第二天创纪录 与月初时相比增加一倍以上。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a628b9ea053ca28dd813c14d90b043\" tg-height=\"342\" tg-width=\"512\"/></p>\n<p><b>美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位</b></p>\n<p>美国上周首次申请失业救济人数几无变动，表明随着劳动力市场继续复苏，裁员人数处于历史低位。</p>\n<p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至12月18日当周首次申领失业救济人数报20.5万人，与前值持平。经济学家预期中值为20.5万人。</p>\n<p>截至12月11日当周持续申领失业金人数降至186万。</p>\n<p>该报告凸显了近几个月岗位流失数量较低的情况，雇主侧重于吸引和留住工人，以跟上消费者需求的步伐。申请量总体上与疫情前的水平一致，反映了美国劳动力市场吃紧。</p>\n<p>随着劳动力市场的改善，申领失业金人数持续走低，最近几周由于在假日季调整原始数据引发一些波动，情况尤其是如此。申请人数在截至12月4日当周触及了52年低点18.8万人。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358ab600ca8986e711edbb28f92d581b\" tg-height=\"385\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞</b></p>\n<p>美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。</p>\n<p>萨默斯表示，美联储迟迟未发现通胀风险，在应对通胀问题上反应过慢可能导致经济大幅滑坡。</p>\n<p>“如果我们可以在过热的情况下可持续地管理经济，那的确棒极了，但1970年代我们得到了教训，即经济过热不仅带来高通胀，而且通胀还会不断上升，”萨默斯说。 “这就是为什么我担心我们已经到了在不触发衰退情况下难以降低通胀的地步”。</p>\n<p>美国的通胀率已经达到里根以来的最高水平，许多人开始更接近萨默斯的观点。美联储本月转向转向鹰派，计划比9月份时预期的水平更快收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险</b></p>\n<p>一位准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员称，美国通胀率势将因经济增长而进一步上升，并可能在2022年一季度超出大多数分析师的预期。</p>\n<p>Bank of Ireland Group Plc在柏林的通胀交易台负责人Semin Soher Power预测，明年一季度美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的6.8%，也高于分析师对一季度6.3%的预估中值。</p>\n<p>她于周四接受采访时表示，通胀压力“现在更多是由经济增长带来的”，而不单纯是能源价格上涨或经济重启的结果。她表示，市场和央行都在意识到这一点，迹象之一是美联储不再用“暂时性”来描述通胀压力。</p>\n<p>对于美联储转鹰，市场提高了加息次数预测，不过对较长期内加息幅度的预期还是低于美联储点阵图显示的预测中值。交易员们似乎相信央行政策将有助于控制通胀，反映市场通胀预期的盈亏平衡通胀率在近几周回落。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 07:03 北京时间   <a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml\"><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n\n\n2、默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n\n\n3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n\n\n4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n\n\n5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n\n\n6、通胀交易员认为...</p>\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2193614027","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n\n\n2、默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n\n\n3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n\n\n4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n\n\n5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n\n\n6、通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险\n\n\n美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。\n美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，调整通胀因素后，11月份商品和服务购买额增幅与10月的0.7%基本持平。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。\n受供应链遇阻的消息影响，许多美国人今年开始假期购物的时间早于往年，一定程度上解释了前一个月消费支出增长强劲的原因。\n但消费者也面临着数十年来最猛烈的通胀。消费者在超市和加油站的购买力变弱，可用于购买非必需消费品的钱减少了。而且omicron变异株也可能遏制服务支出的反弹。\n美联储青睐的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较前月增长0.6%，同比增长5.7%，创下1982年以来最高水平。\n\n默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n默沙东的Covid-19口服药获得美国监管机构批准，在omicron变异株导致病例激增之际，为高风险患者提供了另一种居家治疗选择。\n在默沙东的molnupiravir获得紧急使用授权之前，美国周三已经批准了辉瑞公司的新冠口服药Paxlovid。它们带来新的希望，以免感染病例激增压垮美国的医院系统。\n默沙东与Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP共同开发的molnupiravir用于治疗18岁及以上年龄有重症风险的非住院Covid患者。一项研究表明，它使轻中度成年人的住院或死亡风险降低了30%。\nMolnupiravir的工作原理是在遗传物质中引入错误，最终阻止病毒复制，但可能会影响正在生长的人类细胞。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。\n\n英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n英国政府表示，新冠病毒变异毒株omicron似乎比迄今为止的其他毒株严重性更低，但传染力更强。英国单日新增病例再创纪录，逼近12万例。\n英国卫生安全局（HSA）周四表示，omicron的感染者住院的可能性比德尔塔感染者低50-70%，急诊可能性也低31-45%。\n然而，HSA的数据显示，加强针虽然能够增强保护，但对omicron保护力消退的速度比对德尔塔更快，第三剂接种的10周后降低了15-25%。\n该机构还警告说，由于omicron变异株传染性高，仍然有可能出现大量重症患者，从而令医疗体系不堪重负。\n英国单日新增新冠病例连续第二天创纪录 与月初时相比增加一倍以上。\n\n美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n美国上周首次申请失业救济人数几无变动，表明随着劳动力市场继续复苏，裁员人数处于历史低位。\n美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至12月18日当周首次申领失业救济人数报20.5万人，与前值持平。经济学家预期中值为20.5万人。\n截至12月11日当周持续申领失业金人数降至186万。\n该报告凸显了近几个月岗位流失数量较低的情况，雇主侧重于吸引和留住工人，以跟上消费者需求的步伐。申请量总体上与疫情前的水平一致，反映了美国劳动力市场吃紧。\n随着劳动力市场的改善，申领失业金人数持续走低，最近几周由于在假日季调整原始数据引发一些波动，情况尤其是如此。申请人数在截至12月4日当周触及了52年低点18.8万人。\n\n萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。\n萨默斯表示，美联储迟迟未发现通胀风险，在应对通胀问题上反应过慢可能导致经济大幅滑坡。\n“如果我们可以在过热的情况下可持续地管理经济，那的确棒极了，但1970年代我们得到了教训，即经济过热不仅带来高通胀，而且通胀还会不断上升，”萨默斯说。 “这就是为什么我担心我们已经到了在不触发衰退情况下难以降低通胀的地步”。\n美国的通胀率已经达到里根以来的最高水平，许多人开始更接近萨默斯的观点。美联储本月转向转向鹰派，计划比9月份时预期的水平更快收紧货币政策。\n通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险\n一位准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员称，美国通胀率势将因经济增长而进一步上升，并可能在2022年一季度超出大多数分析师的预期。\nBank of Ireland Group Plc在柏林的通胀交易台负责人Semin Soher 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>我想问一下，这个公司是游戏公司吗？？？你们为什么要砸小破站？？？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$我想问一下，这个公司是游戏公司吗？？？你们为什么要砸小破站？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807390446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"content":"我一直用b站看视频，买课，原来这玩意是靠游戏赚钱！！！！！","text":"我一直用b站看视频，买课，原来这玩意是靠游戏赚钱！！！！！","html":"我一直用b站看视频，买课，原来这玩意是靠游戏赚钱！！！！！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316895095,"gmtCreate":1611926526217,"gmtModify":1703756384681,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> 空头最多赚100%，但是亏却可以亏N倍，不要做空！不要做空！","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> 空头最多赚100%，但是亏却可以亏N倍，不要做空！不要做空！","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$ 空头最多赚100%，但是亏却可以亏N倍，不要做空！不要做空！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316895095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327715460,"gmtCreate":1616125222850,"gmtModify":1616125546528,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>媒体36氪真不是东西，随便放出来消息，割了2次韭菜，真会玩啊","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$媒体36氪真不是东西，随便放出来消息，割了2次韭菜，真会玩啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327715460","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492861829038206","authorId":"3492861829038206","name":"海涛0553","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3492861829038206","authorIdStr":"3492861829038206"},"content":"韭菜被割，不是因为消息假，而是因为每波行情都想赚到极致。","text":"韭菜被割，不是因为消息假，而是因为每波行情都想赚到极致。","html":"韭菜被割，不是因为消息假，而是因为每波行情都想赚到极致。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388665050,"gmtCreate":1613054513770,"gmtModify":1703768895176,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>现在买，真的是抄底了。。。香喷喷的底","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$</a>现在买，真的是抄底了。。。香喷喷的底","text":"$富途控股(FUTU)$现在买，真的是抄底了。。。香喷喷的底","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388665050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544082811133558","authorId":"3544082811133558","name":"大家都是读书人20313","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecbf3ef0b12f086c26217fd8f6c79b3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544082811133558","authorIdStr":"3544082811133558"},"content":"请问… 你买了没有","text":"请问… 你买了没有","html":"请问… 你买了没有"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337039801,"gmtCreate":1611023458803,"gmtModify":1703747485659,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01316\">$耐世特(01316)$</a>港股资金持续流入，肯定会推高汽车相关概念股到合理估值水平，所以耐世特涨涨涨完全没问题","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01316\">$耐世特(01316)$</a>港股资金持续流入，肯定会推高汽车相关概念股到合理估值水平，所以耐世特涨涨涨完全没问题","text":"$耐世特(01316)$港股资金持续流入，肯定会推高汽车相关概念股到合理估值水平，所以耐世特涨涨涨完全没问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337039801","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698399142,"gmtCreate":1640300996100,"gmtModify":1640300996100,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","listText":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","text":"国内韭菜就喜欢看这种新闻，实际情况是？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698399142","repostId":"2193614027","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2193614027","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640300623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2193614027?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 07:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2193614027","media":"新浪美股","summary":"美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。　　美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。","content":"<html><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n<b>1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<b>6、通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9537031f9733064edb283fb8f9c6a0\" tg-height=\"366\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高</b></p>\n<p>美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。</p>\n<p>美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，调整通胀因素后，11月份商品和服务购买额增幅与10月的0.7%基本持平。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。</p>\n<p>受供应链遇阻的消息影响，许多美国人今年开始假期购物的时间早于往年，一定程度上解释了前一个月消费支出增长强劲的原因。</p>\n<p>但消费者也面临着数十年来最猛烈的通胀。消费者在超市和加油站的购买力变弱，可用于购买非必需消费品的钱减少了。而且omicron变异株也可能遏制服务支出的反弹。</p>\n<p>美联储青睐的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较前月增长0.6%，同比增长5.7%，创下1982年以来最高水平。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a86ad7d405d41f26eaf4efacca793d2\" tg-height=\"309\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群</b></p>\n<p>默沙东的Covid-19口服药获得美国监管机构批准，在omicron变异株导致病例激增之际，为高风险患者提供了另一种居家治疗选择。</p>\n<p>在默沙东的molnupiravir获得紧急使用授权之前，美国周三已经批准了辉瑞公司的新冠口服药Paxlovid。它们带来新的希望，以免感染病例激增压垮美国的医院系统。</p>\n<p>默沙东与Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP共同开发的molnupiravir用于治疗18岁及以上年龄有重症风险的非住院Covid患者。一项研究表明，它使轻中度成年人的住院或死亡风险降低了30%。</p>\n<p>Molnupiravir的工作原理是在遗传物质中引入错误，最终阻止病毒复制，但可能会影响正在生长的人类细胞。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47825ae9cb248adf0684313ca0fcd911\" tg-height=\"391\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株</b></p>\n<p>英国政府表示，新冠病毒变异毒株omicron似乎比迄今为止的其他毒株严重性更低，但传染力更强。英国单日新增病例再创纪录，逼近12万例。</p>\n<p>英国卫生安全局（HSA）周四表示，omicron的感染者住院的可能性比德尔塔感染者低50-70%，急诊可能性也低31-45%。</p>\n<p>然而，HSA的数据显示，加强针虽然能够增强保护，但对omicron保护力消退的速度比对德尔塔更快，第三剂接种的10周后降低了15-25%。</p>\n<p>该机构还警告说，由于omicron变异株传染性高，仍然有可能出现大量重症患者，从而令医疗体系不堪重负。</p>\n<p>英国单日新增新冠病例连续第二天创纪录 与月初时相比增加一倍以上。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a628b9ea053ca28dd813c14d90b043\" tg-height=\"342\" tg-width=\"512\"/></p>\n<p><b>美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位</b></p>\n<p>美国上周首次申请失业救济人数几无变动，表明随着劳动力市场继续复苏，裁员人数处于历史低位。</p>\n<p>美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至12月18日当周首次申领失业救济人数报20.5万人，与前值持平。经济学家预期中值为20.5万人。</p>\n<p>截至12月11日当周持续申领失业金人数降至186万。</p>\n<p>该报告凸显了近几个月岗位流失数量较低的情况，雇主侧重于吸引和留住工人，以跟上消费者需求的步伐。申请量总体上与疫情前的水平一致，反映了美国劳动力市场吃紧。</p>\n<p>随着劳动力市场的改善，申领失业金人数持续走低，最近几周由于在假日季调整原始数据引发一些波动，情况尤其是如此。申请人数在截至12月4日当周触及了52年低点18.8万人。</p>\n<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358ab600ca8986e711edbb28f92d581b\" tg-height=\"385\" tg-width=\"550\"/></p>\n<p><b>萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞</b></p>\n<p>美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。</p>\n<p>萨默斯表示，美联储迟迟未发现通胀风险，在应对通胀问题上反应过慢可能导致经济大幅滑坡。</p>\n<p>“如果我们可以在过热的情况下可持续地管理经济，那的确棒极了，但1970年代我们得到了教训，即经济过热不仅带来高通胀，而且通胀还会不断上升，”萨默斯说。 “这就是为什么我担心我们已经到了在不触发衰退情况下难以降低通胀的地步”。</p>\n<p>美国的通胀率已经达到里根以来的最高水平，许多人开始更接近萨默斯的观点。美联储本月转向转向鹰派，计划比9月份时预期的水平更快收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险</b></p>\n<p>一位准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员称，美国通胀率势将因经济增长而进一步上升，并可能在2022年一季度超出大多数分析师的预期。</p>\n<p>Bank of Ireland Group Plc在柏林的通胀交易台负责人Semin Soher Power预测，明年一季度美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的6.8%，也高于分析师对一季度6.3%的预估中值。</p>\n<p>她于周四接受采访时表示，通胀压力“现在更多是由经济增长带来的”，而不单纯是能源价格上涨或经济重启的结果。她表示，市场和央行都在意识到这一点，迹象之一是美联储不再用“暂时性”来描述通胀压力。</p>\n<p>对于美联储转鹰，市场提高了加息次数预测，不过对较长期内加息幅度的预期还是低于美联储点阵图显示的预测中值。交易员们似乎相信央行政策将有助于控制通胀，反映市场通胀预期的盈亏平衡通胀率在近几周回落。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" http-equiv=\"Content-Type\"/>\n<meta content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\" name=\"viewport\"/>\n<meta content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" name=\"format-detection\"/>\n<title>外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 07:03 北京时间   <a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml\"><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n\n\n2、默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n\n\n3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n\n\n4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n\n\n5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n\n\n6、通胀交易员认为...</p>\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-24/doc-ikyamrmz0841670.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2193614027","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n\n\n2、默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n\n\n3、英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n\n\n4、美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n\n\n5、萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n\n\n6、通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险\n\n\n美国经通胀调整消费支出增长停滞 PCE同比升幅接近40年最高\n美国经通胀因素调整的消费者支出11月增长停滞，因为近四十年来最快的物价涨幅侵蚀了消费者购买力。\n美国商务部周四公布的数据显示，调整通胀因素后，11月份商品和服务购买额增幅与10月的0.7%基本持平。未经通胀因素调整的名义支出增长0.6%，与经济学家调查得出的预期中值相符。\n受供应链遇阻的消息影响，许多美国人今年开始假期购物的时间早于往年，一定程度上解释了前一个月消费支出增长强劲的原因。\n但消费者也面临着数十年来最猛烈的通胀。消费者在超市和加油站的购买力变弱，可用于购买非必需消费品的钱减少了。而且omicron变异株也可能遏制服务支出的反弹。\n美联储青睐的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）较前月增长0.6%，同比增长5.7%，创下1982年以来最高水平。\n\n默沙东公司的新冠口服药获得美国批准用于高风险人群\n默沙东的Covid-19口服药获得美国监管机构批准，在omicron变异株导致病例激增之际，为高风险患者提供了另一种居家治疗选择。\n在默沙东的molnupiravir获得紧急使用授权之前，美国周三已经批准了辉瑞公司的新冠口服药Paxlovid。它们带来新的希望，以免感染病例激增压垮美国的医院系统。\n默沙东与Ridgeback Biotherapeutics LP共同开发的molnupiravir用于治疗18岁及以上年龄有重症风险的非住院Covid患者。一项研究表明，它使轻中度成年人的住院或死亡风险降低了30%。\nMolnupiravir的工作原理是在遗传物质中引入错误，最终阻止病毒复制，但可能会影响正在生长的人类细胞。美国食品药品管理局表示，在给药之前应告知孕妇对胎儿的潜在风险。\n\n英国称omicron感染者住院风险比德尔塔低70% 传染性强于迄今任何毒株\n英国政府表示，新冠病毒变异毒株omicron似乎比迄今为止的其他毒株严重性更低，但传染力更强。英国单日新增病例再创纪录，逼近12万例。\n英国卫生安全局（HSA）周四表示，omicron的感染者住院的可能性比德尔塔感染者低50-70%，急诊可能性也低31-45%。\n然而，HSA的数据显示，加强针虽然能够增强保护，但对omicron保护力消退的速度比对德尔塔更快，第三剂接种的10周后降低了15-25%。\n该机构还警告说，由于omicron变异株传染性高，仍然有可能出现大量重症患者，从而令医疗体系不堪重负。\n英国单日新增新冠病例连续第二天创纪录 与月初时相比增加一倍以上。\n\n美国上周首次申领失业救济人数几无变动 仍处于低位\n美国上周首次申请失业救济人数几无变动，表明随着劳动力市场继续复苏，裁员人数处于历史低位。\n美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至12月18日当周首次申领失业救济人数报20.5万人，与前值持平。经济学家预期中值为20.5万人。\n截至12月11日当周持续申领失业金人数降至186万。\n该报告凸显了近几个月岗位流失数量较低的情况，雇主侧重于吸引和留住工人，以跟上消费者需求的步伐。申请量总体上与疫情前的水平一致，反映了美国劳动力市场吃紧。\n随着劳动力市场的改善，申领失业金人数持续走低，最近几周由于在假日季调整原始数据引发一些波动，情况尤其是如此。申请人数在截至12月4日当周触及了52年低点18.8万人。\n\n萨默斯警告美国或很快陷入衰退 此后将出现长期停滞\n美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称，未来几年美国经济将进入一个考验期，衰退后可能陷入长期停滞。\n萨默斯表示，美联储迟迟未发现通胀风险，在应对通胀问题上反应过慢可能导致经济大幅滑坡。\n“如果我们可以在过热的情况下可持续地管理经济，那的确棒极了，但1970年代我们得到了教训，即经济过热不仅带来高通胀，而且通胀还会不断上升，”萨默斯说。 “这就是为什么我担心我们已经到了在不触发衰退情况下难以降低通胀的地步”。\n美国的通胀率已经达到里根以来的最高水平，许多人开始更接近萨默斯的观点。美联储本月转向转向鹰派，计划比9月份时预期的水平更快收紧货币政策。\n通胀交易员认为2022年初美国通胀率有突破7%的风险\n一位准确预测了今年债市通胀预期上升的交易员称，美国通胀率势将因经济增长而进一步上升，并可能在2022年一季度超出大多数分析师的预期。\nBank of Ireland Group Plc在柏林的通胀交易台负责人Semin Soher Power预测，明年一季度美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅将超过7%，高于11月的6.8%，也高于分析师对一季度6.3%的预估中值。\n她于周四接受采访时表示，通胀压力“现在更多是由经济增长带来的”，而不单纯是能源价格上涨或经济重启的结果。她表示，市场和央行都在意识到这一点，迹象之一是美联储不再用“暂时性”来描述通胀压力。\n对于美联储转鹰，市场提高了加息次数预测，不过对较长期内加息幅度的预期还是低于美联储点阵图显示的预测中值。交易员们似乎相信央行政策将有助于控制通胀，反映市场通胀预期的盈亏平衡通胀率在近几周回落。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619122824,"gmtCreate":1649124206900,"gmtModify":1649125188850,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","listText":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","text":"每天都在衰退，美国人民生活在水深火热之中，期待俄罗斯人民早日解放全美","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619122824","repostId":"2225883307","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316803758,"gmtCreate":1611925585474,"gmtModify":1703756365132,"author":{"id":"3560377687384197","authorId":"3560377687384197","name":"飛呀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560377687384197","authorIdStr":"3560377687384197"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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