西湖白云的个人主页 - 老虎社区

西湖白云

西湖白云

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IP属地：浙江

198关注

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1主题

0勋章

2021-01-24

$一起教育科技(YQ)$可惜高点没出

2021-01-12

$秦淮数据(CD)$赚钱不出变套牢

2020-10-13

$洪恩教育(IH)$没卖最高价，也满足了，差不多10元一股的收益

2020-12-18

$一起教育科技(YQ)$伤心

2021-01-02

$秦淮数据(CD)$卖亏了

2021-01-26

$一起教育科技(YQ)$66

2020-10-22

$名创优品(MNSO)$脑壳痛

2020-10-16

$名创优品(MNSO)$昨天还是心急买太高了，期待今天创新高就完美了

2020-10-15

$名创优品(MNSO)$开盘25以下全力追入

2020-10-10

$洪恩教育(IH)$优秀

2020-08-20

入金成功，期待小鹏

2020-11-21

$逸仙电商(YSG)$没打新亏大

2020-11-16

$比亚迪股份(01211)$66

2020-10-20

$名创优品(MNSO)$还是太乐观了，明明可以赚钱走，又套了

2021-01-24

回到多少工号

2021-01-23

$RLX科技(RLX)$盘早了

2020-12-27

$秦淮数据(CD)$亏了

2020-12-04

牛逼

@锐问:第一批买蔚来股票暴富的人：1美元时买到了22万股，前几天清仓

2020-12-03

$一起教育科技(YQ)$期待大涨

2020-11-28

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Ericaaaaaa:Palantir到底是干嘛的？其业务护城河是什么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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| 林波编辑 | 周欣2019年6月左右，蔚来股价跌至退市边缘。一批投资者胆战心惊。“最多赔40%”，美股投资者“老王”早早预想到了最惨的境地，当时他手里的蔚来股票已经有22万股；另一个人则选择忍痛“割肉”，几十万美元瞬时烟消云散。谁都没有想到，蔚来很快成为了2020年最受瞩目的一支股票。从跌至1美元，到如今超过40美元，一年时间，完成了华丽的逆袭。一、“1美元的时候，我买到22万股”昵称：老王简介：十年A股+港股+美股投资经验我之前还没做全职投资人的时候，在汽车行业做了十年，对汽车是比较熟悉的。最早关注蔚来是因为它在营销上非常高调，比如通过蔚来EP9刷“最快电动汽车圈速”称号，门店选址是北上广最贵地段，各类活动也非常高端；但与此同时我们也看到，产品负面报道很多，又没有自己的工厂……&nbsp;所以一开始，是不看好的。蔚来从IPO价格最多涨到14美元，到2019年6月左右，跌到2块多一点时，我开始建仓，后来又一路跌到1块1毛9。我越跌越买，最多的时候持仓22万股。当时的逻辑如下：第一，大股东自救决定了下限有限。李斌，腾讯包括当时仓位不小的高瓴都在，蔚来不可能轻易跌破1块退市，所以我估计最多赔40%。第二，蔚来的稀缺性可能会让上限很高。因为我个人是看好新能源车的，也试驾过奥迪的Etron，奔驰的Glc，发现传统巨头的新能源方向都是错的，最关键的智能化做的很“垃圾”。感觉跟特斯拉相比，蔚来之外，国内一个能打的都没有。它毕竟是单价破40万，销量靠前的新能源汽车。第三，“奇葩”的用户文化。我进了四五个蔚来车主群，都一股脑地跟“传销”一样，互动性强，还有自费给蔚来打广告的。包括跟很多车主交流，感觉他们非常抱团，对品牌也非常认同，这是以前国内汽车品牌没有过的。后来，大股东自救了。蔚来发行2亿美元可转债，李斌、腾讯各认购1亿。紧接着合肥国投给蔚来投资了超100亿元。利好消息也开始","listText":"作者 | 林波编辑 | 周欣2019年6月左右，蔚来股价跌至退市边缘。一批投资者胆战心惊。“最多赔40%”，美股投资者“老王”早早预想到了最惨的境地，当时他手里的蔚来股票已经有22万股；另一个人则选择忍痛“割肉”，几十万美元瞬时烟消云散。谁都没有想到，蔚来很快成为了2020年最受瞩目的一支股票。从跌至1美元，到如今超过40美元，一年时间，完成了华丽的逆袭。一、“1美元的时候，我买到22万股”昵称：老王简介：十年A股+港股+美股投资经验我之前还没做全职投资人的时候，在汽车行业做了十年，对汽车是比较熟悉的。最早关注蔚来是因为它在营销上非常高调，比如通过蔚来EP9刷“最快电动汽车圈速”称号，门店选址是北上广最贵地段，各类活动也非常高端；但与此同时我们也看到，产品负面报道很多，又没有自己的工厂……&nbsp;所以一开始，是不看好的。蔚来从IPO价格最多涨到14美元，到2019年6月左右，跌到2块多一点时，我开始建仓，后来又一路跌到1块1毛9。我越跌越买，最多的时候持仓22万股。当时的逻辑如下：第一，大股东自救决定了下限有限。李斌，腾讯包括当时仓位不小的高瓴都在，蔚来不可能轻易跌破1块退市，所以我估计最多赔40%。第二，蔚来的稀缺性可能会让上限很高。因为我个人是看好新能源车的，也试驾过奥迪的Etron，奔驰的Glc，发现传统巨头的新能源方向都是错的，最关键的智能化做的很“垃圾”。感觉跟特斯拉相比，蔚来之外，国内一个能打的都没有。它毕竟是单价破40万，销量靠前的新能源汽车。第三，“奇葩”的用户文化。我进了四五个蔚来车主群，都一股脑地跟“传销”一样，互动性强，还有自费给蔚来打广告的。包括跟很多车主交流，感觉他们非常抱团，对品牌也非常认同，这是以前国内汽车品牌没有过的。后来，大股东自救了。蔚来发行2亿美元可转债，李斌、腾讯各认购1亿。紧接着合肥国投给蔚来投资了超100亿元。利好消息也开始","text":"作者 | 林波编辑 | 周欣2019年6月左右，蔚来股价跌至退市边缘。一批投资者胆战心惊。“最多赔40%”，美股投资者“老王”早早预想到了最惨的境地，当时他手里的蔚来股票已经有22万股；另一个人则选择忍痛“割肉”，几十万美元瞬时烟消云散。谁都没有想到，蔚来很快成为了2020年最受瞩目的一支股票。从跌至1美元，到如今超过40美元，一年时间，完成了华丽的逆袭。一、“1美元的时候，我买到22万股”昵称：老王简介：十年A股+港股+美股投资经验我之前还没做全职投资人的时候，在汽车行业做了十年，对汽车是比较熟悉的。最早关注蔚来是因为它在营销上非常高调，比如通过蔚来EP9刷“最快电动汽车圈速”称号，门店选址是北上广最贵地段，各类活动也非常高端；但与此同时我们也看到，产品负面报道很多，又没有自己的工厂…… 所以一开始，是不看好的。蔚来从IPO价格最多涨到14美元，到2019年6月左右，跌到2块多一点时，我开始建仓，后来又一路跌到1块1毛9。我越跌越买，最多的时候持仓22万股。当时的逻辑如下：第一，大股东自救决定了下限有限。李斌，腾讯包括当时仓位不小的高瓴都在，蔚来不可能轻易跌破1块退市，所以我估计最多赔40%。第二，蔚来的稀缺性可能会让上限很高。因为我个人是看好新能源车的，也试驾过奥迪的Etron，奔驰的Glc，发现传统巨头的新能源方向都是错的，最关键的智能化做的很“垃圾”。感觉跟特斯拉相比，蔚来之外，国内一个能打的都没有。它毕竟是单价破40万，销量靠前的新能源汽车。第三，“奇葩”的用户文化。我进了四五个蔚来车主群，都一股脑地跟“传销”一样，互动性强，还有自费给蔚来打广告的。包括跟很多车主交流，感觉他们非常抱团，对品牌也非常认同，这是以前国内汽车品牌没有过的。后来，大股东自救了。蔚来发行2亿美元可转债，李斌、腾讯各认购1亿。紧接着合肥国投给蔚来投资了超100亿元。利好消息也开始","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c6d65fb8daefb836c13c0038b1a9289","width":"640","height":"417"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21716060421984f3f8c814b8158f3df5","width":"892","height":"660"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afd52b202eec75974e02495b5caabc58","width":"1080","height":"1275"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398710007","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396953442,"gmtCreate":1607010977586,"gmtModify":1703845987155,"author":{"id":"3559716138428141","authorId":"3559716138428141","name":"西湖白云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cf98247b6f048f0148aaf7868e8775","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559716138428141","authorIdStr":"3559716138428141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>期待大涨","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>期待大涨","text":"$一起教育科技(YQ)$期待大涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396953442","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391827398,"gmtCreate":1606569221314,"gmtModify":1703843656396,"author":{"id":"3559716138428141","authorId":"3559716138428141","name":"西湖白云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cf98247b6f048f0148aaf7868e8775","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559716138428141","authorIdStr":"3559716138428141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391827398","repostId":"391982813","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":391982813,"gmtCreate":1606468789532,"gmtModify":1710138771565,"author":{"id":"3567605185728574","authorId":"3567605185728574","name":"Ericaaaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b677b359e9811e02b07dc8659fc471a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3567605185728574","authorIdStr":"3567605185728574"},"themes":[],"title":"Palantir到底是干嘛的？其业务护城河是什么？","htmlText":"作为一枚ICT行业资深打工人，我对SaaS独角兽的关注是远超其他行业公司的。它们能从根本上提升企业运行效率，为世界带来巨变。大蓝筹上车感觉好不甘心<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;，Snowflake<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>&nbsp;这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","listText":"作为一枚ICT行业资深打工人，我对SaaS独角兽的关注是远超其他行业公司的。它们能从根本上提升企业运行效率，为世界带来巨变。大蓝筹上车感觉好不甘心<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;，Snowflake<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>&nbsp;这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","text":"作为一枚ICT行业资深打工人，我对SaaS独角兽的关注是远超其他行业公司的。它们能从根本上提升企业运行效率，为世界带来巨变。大蓝筹上车感觉好不甘心$微软(MSFT)$ ，Snowflake$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf42255dfbbace8241a8ff4ff672cd0","width":"688","height":"371"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5a69bd1324a9f4aa720856cbbe836","width":"688","height":"457"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f49402e5f03c8f552473813ad5a5ab6","width":"688","height":"407"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391982813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391827966,"gmtCreate":1606569212855,"gmtModify":1703843656223,"author":{"id":"3559716138428141","authorId":"3559716138428141","name":"西湖白云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cf98247b6f048f0148aaf7868e8775","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559716138428141","authorIdStr":"3559716138428141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391827966","repostId":"391909014","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":391909014,"gmtCreate":1606457171432,"gmtModify":1703843146847,"author":{"id":"3569409136349916","authorId":"3569409136349916","name":"Dan投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d674245613844afecfe26ad72b8674fb","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3569409136349916","authorIdStr":"3569409136349916"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n  【8家疫苗公司将于2021年大量生产疫苗！到底该选哪家？这期视频讲告诉你！】非常庆幸能够入驻老虎社区，第一次发帖，希望大家多多支持！今天就给大家先献上疫苗股的分析，到底应该怎么去做选择？因为疫苗股实在是太多了 所以希望透过这期视频 你能够对疫苗股的选择有所了解！对你有帮助的话可以帮我转发！谢谢【如果平时有关注油管Youtube的能够关注我的频道：理财投资Dan Invest ，频道内容主要发布深入分析个股，时事更新，财报解读等内容，有兴趣可以订阅！】 $辉瑞(PFE)$ $诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$ $BioNTech SE(BNTX)$ $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ $强生(JNJ)$\n \n","listText":"【8家疫苗公司将于2021年大量生产疫苗！到底该选哪家？这期视频讲告诉你！】非常庆幸能够入驻老虎社区，第一次发帖，希望大家多多支持！今天就给大家先献上疫苗股的分析，到底应该怎么去做选择？因为疫苗股实在是太多了 所以希望透过这期视频 你能够对疫苗股的选择有所了解！对你有帮助的话可以帮我转发！谢谢【如果平时有关注油管Youtube的能够关注我的频道：理财投资Dan Invest ，频道内容主要发布深入分析个股，时事更新，财报解读等内容，有兴趣可以订阅！】 $辉瑞(PFE)$ $诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$ $BioNTech SE(BNTX)$ $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ $强生(JNJ)$","text":"【8家疫苗公司将于2021年大量生产疫苗！到底该选哪家？这期视频讲告诉你！】非常庆幸能够入驻老虎社区，第一次发帖，希望大家多多支持！今天就给大家先献上疫苗股的分析，到底应该怎么去做选择？因为疫苗股实在是太多了 所以希望透过这期视频 你能够对疫苗股的选择有所了解！对你有帮助的话可以帮我转发！谢谢【如果平时有关注油管Youtube的能够关注我的频道：理财投资Dan Invest ，频道内容主要发布深入分析个股，时事更新，财报解读等内容，有兴趣可以订阅！】 $辉瑞(PFE)$ $诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$ $BioNTech SE(BNTX)$ $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ $强生(JNJ)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391909014","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"2909db4488b34761a1fb5afcf4ba6e45","tweetId":"391909014","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/9abe5d955285890810468780359/qS3gjaQWPncA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c6f034a8829abb9f66f124697485f9"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391827062,"gmtCreate":1606569204756,"gmtModify":1703843656051,"author":{"id":"3559716138428141","authorId":"3559716138428141","name":"西湖白云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cf98247b6f048f0148aaf7868e8775","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559716138428141","authorIdStr":"3559716138428141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391827062","repostId":"391301777","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":391301777,"gmtCreate":1606480798293,"gmtModify":1703843287463,"author":{"id":"3489343241595303","authorId":"3489343241595303","name":"星辰大海的边界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f26bb0d62a928fe2b51ec2e17face8a5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3489343241595303","authorIdStr":"3489343241595303"},"themes":[],"title":"击落“电动三傻”的会是什么？","htmlText":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战，","listText":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！  凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战，","text":"今年环球资本市场最闪亮的星，无疑是蔚来汽车为代表的中国电动车新势力。蔚来用1年30倍的涨幅宣告，中国永远不缺商业神话，李斌这个2019年最惨的人也可以翻身。 但同时，新势力的估值已经飙升到了一个恐怖的水平，蔚来汽车荣登美国散户交易榜第一名，网友将这三家新势力戏称为电动三傻。 下面这张图计算了各家车企的销量、市值、收入（为了考虑新势力的成长性，我们选取蔚来理想小鹏的2020年预测收入和销量，和其他车企的2019年数据进行对比）。 单车销售市值是一个公允衡量估值的指标，我们看到，小鹏、理想、蔚来的单车销售市值是大众汽车的180~400倍，是特斯拉的2.5~5倍！ 凭啥？同样卖一辆车，电动车就比燃油车值钱几百倍，电动车小弟比老大值钱几倍。 当然，成长股投资者可以说，我们赌的是趋势，赌的是终局，现在的销量都只是小荷尖尖，这个逻辑貌似目前也没法证伪。 我也一直在反思，击落电动三傻离谱估值的会是什么。 结果很简单：竞争格局。 聚义厅在竞争格局很重要：从鸦片想到化妆股中举过一个精彩的例子： “根据剑桥大学的资料记载，1830年代渣甸洋行的鸦片贸易利润是百分之几百。而1850-1860年代，渣甸洋行自有鸦片贸易利润是15%，代理经销鸦片的利润是4%。一个有着极度上瘾特征，不消费就要眼泪鼻涕满地打滚的品类，在打通上下游产业链后的利润率只有这个水平，放到现在还不如卖鸭脖子的。” 当壁垒消失，竞争格局恶化后，连贩鸦片这样的暴利生意都会变得平庸，时间的力量就是这么伟大。 而对于汽车新势力的竞争格局，最大的问题就出在：汽车的换车周期太长了，传统势力有充足的时间做出反击，从而使得竞争变得无比红海。 很多人举苹果和诺基亚的例子，说明新势力会如何在电动车的战场上把老玩家打的丢盔弃甲。 但他们忽略了一个关键的差异：汽车的换车周期在10年左右，而手机的换机周期只有2年。 苹果干诺基亚，可以打闪电战，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e47896a2ea86f339c6fc3e90d0edb7","width":"568","height":"386"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391301777","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399431448,"gmtCreate":1606170897484,"gmtModify":1703841358395,"author":{"id":"3559716138428141","authorId":"3559716138428141","name":"西湖白云","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4cf98247b6f048f0148aaf7868e8775","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559716138428141","authorIdStr":"3559716138428141"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望中大肉签","listText":"希望中大肉签","text":"希望中大肉签","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399431448","repostId":"399876668","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":399876668,"gmtCreate":1606111921250,"gmtModify":1703840894083,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36979109942400","authorIdStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"一周IPO观察 | 大波IPO来袭：蓝月亮、泡泡玛特、京东健康、和铂医药","htmlText":"港股 一、蓝月亮通过港交所上市聆讯，千呼万唤始出来。 11月18日，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90020\">$蓝月亮(临时)(90020)$</a> 已经通过港交所聆讯，在离初次递交近半年后，终于通过聆讯，预计月末招股。蓝月亮是国内领先的家庭清洁护理公司，在家护行业中率先发展电商渠道，并占据领先地位，建立了强大的全渠道销售网络，市场占有率连续11年排名第一。 据招股书显示，2017至2019年，蓝月亮实现营收56.32亿港元、67.68亿港元、70.5亿港元，复合年增长率为11.9%；对应的净利润为0.86亿港元、5.54亿港元、10.79亿港元，复合年增长率为254%。2020年上半年，利率为64.0%，较2019上半年毛利率61.5%，纯利为3.02亿港元。如果成功上市，蓝月亮将成为国内大型日化企业赴港第一股。 &nbsp;二、融创服务、德琪医药 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01516\">$融创服务(01516)$</a> 于11月19日上市，每股12.65港元，一手中签率30%，首日收涨21.90%。今年以来，房企物业拆分上市潮加速，令整个物业板块扩容，而同一时间物业新股的估值也水涨船高，至合景悠活、世贸服务，物业新股手被泼了一盆冷水，上市表现不佳。物业板块整体估值走高并随之迎来回调。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06996\">$德琪医药-B(06996)$</a> 是超百倍认购的热门股，与11月20日上市，定价18.08港元，一手中签率20%，暗盘涨幅6.75%，首日收盘涨幅1.11%。 三、其他通过聆讯、递表的公司 本周","listText":"港股 一、蓝月亮通过港交所上市聆讯，千呼万唤始出来。 11月18日，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/90020\">$蓝月亮(临时)(90020)$</a> 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Jeff Chung 提升了蔚来、小鹏、理想评级，看好中国新能源汽车。据报道，花旗分析师 Jeff Chung 将<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 目标价从33.20美元上调至46.60美元，维持其对该股的买入评级。这个目标是华尔街最高的，比周三37.71美元的收盘价高出23% 。 此外，Chung还提升了小鹏、理想评级。他对<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 的股票评级为“持有” ，并设定了27美元的目标价。这比最近的水平高出了7% 。 他将 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> 的股票评级定为买入，目标价为34.70美元。这比最近的水平高出了28% 。 受此消息影响，中国新能源汽车股票纷纷飙涨，小鹏汽车涨23.22%，蔚来汽车涨6.23%，理想汽车涨5.24%，创历史新高。花旗分析师Jeff Chung首予小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)“买入”评级，目标价为34.70美元。该分析师表示，预计到2022年，小鹏汽车的市场份额将翻倍，占据中国电动汽车市场销量的6%。此外，该分析师还指出小鹏汽车在自动驾驶的更新方面取得了快速的进展。 Jeff Chung予以理想汽车(LI.US)“中性”评级，目标价为27美元。该分析师认为，虽然该股股价已反映了其大部分的利好因素。但是，理想汽车将是增程电动车(EREV)需求增长的主要受益者。 此外，花旗还将蔚来(NIO.US)的目标价从33.2美元上调至46.4美元，维持“买入”评级。该行表示，看好蔚来主要基于以下因素:(","listText":"据巴伦周刊报道，11月4日，花旗分析师 Jeff Chung 提升了蔚来、小鹏、理想评级，看好中国新能源汽车。据报道，花旗分析师 Jeff Chung 将<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 目标价从33.20美元上调至46.60美元，维持其对该股的买入评级。这个目标是华尔街最高的，比周三37.71美元的收盘价高出23% 。 此外，Chung还提升了小鹏、理想评级。他对<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 的股票评级为“持有” ，并设定了27美元的目标价。这比最近的水平高出了7% 。 他将 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> 的股票评级定为买入，目标价为34.70美元。这比最近的水平高出了28% 。 受此消息影响，中国新能源汽车股票纷纷飙涨，小鹏汽车涨23.22%，蔚来汽车涨6.23%，理想汽车涨5.24%，创历史新高。花旗分析师Jeff Chung首予小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)“买入”评级，目标价为34.70美元。该分析师表示，预计到2022年，小鹏汽车的市场份额将翻倍，占据中国电动汽车市场销量的6%。此外，该分析师还指出小鹏汽车在自动驾驶的更新方面取得了快速的进展。 Jeff Chung予以理想汽车(LI.US)“中性”评级，目标价为27美元。该分析师认为，虽然该股股价已反映了其大部分的利好因素。但是，理想汽车将是增程电动车(EREV)需求增长的主要受益者。 此外，花旗还将蔚来(NIO.US)的目标价从33.2美元上调至46.4美元，维持“买入”评级。该行表示，看好蔚来主要基于以下因素:(","text":"据巴伦周刊报道，11月4日，花旗分析师 Jeff Chung 提升了蔚来、小鹏、理想评级，看好中国新能源汽车。据报道，花旗分析师 Jeff Chung 将$蔚来(NIO)$ 目标价从33.20美元上调至46.60美元，维持其对该股的买入评级。这个目标是华尔街最高的，比周三37.71美元的收盘价高出23% 。 此外，Chung还提升了小鹏、理想评级。他对$理想汽车(LI)$ 的股票评级为“持有” ，并设定了27美元的目标价。这比最近的水平高出了7% 。 他将 $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 的股票评级定为买入，目标价为34.70美元。这比最近的水平高出了28% 。 受此消息影响，中国新能源汽车股票纷纷飙涨，小鹏汽车涨23.22%，蔚来汽车涨6.23%，理想汽车涨5.24%，创历史新高。花旗分析师Jeff Chung首予小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)“买入”评级，目标价为34.70美元。该分析师表示，预计到2022年，小鹏汽车的市场份额将翻倍，占据中国电动汽车市场销量的6%。此外，该分析师还指出小鹏汽车在自动驾驶的更新方面取得了快速的进展。 Jeff Chung予以理想汽车(LI.US)“中性”评级，目标价为27美元。该分析师认为，虽然该股股价已反映了其大部分的利好因素。但是，理想汽车将是增程电动车(EREV)需求增长的主要受益者。 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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;，Snowflake<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>&nbsp;这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","listText":"作为一枚ICT行业资深打工人，我对SaaS独角兽的关注是远超其他行业公司的。它们能从根本上提升企业运行效率，为世界带来巨变。大蓝筹上车感觉好不甘心<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;，Snowflake<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>&nbsp;这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","text":"作为一枚ICT行业资深打工人，我对SaaS独角兽的关注是远超其他行业公司的。它们能从根本上提升企业运行效率，为世界带来巨变。大蓝筹上车感觉好不甘心$微软(MSFT)$ ，Snowflake$Snowflake(SNOW)$ 这种P/S 100+的车风险又太大不敢上，感到不开心……对于已经吃到Palantir肉的童鞋，现在肯定不是止盈的时刻。但最近Palantir的暴涨，个人认为是市场对板块的情绪和公司消息面共同驱动的结果，并不是公司业务有了实质性的进展，所以对于我这种没上车的小朋友，核心问题是，Palantir是不是值得长期投资的标的？泡沫破裂后，公司业务能否有实质性的增长，是否能给市场足够的信心，支撑股价长期上涨？再进一步聚焦，Palantir的业务护城河是什么，是否给客户提供了不可替代的价值？所以我们今天不谈创始人八卦，财务表现，客户资源，来看一看公司核心竞争力到底是什么，它计划要如何改变世界。$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 特别提醒，本人非SaaS行业从业者，以下内容完全原创，如有解释不当，烦请专业人士斧正，我是一个有偶像包袱的小花，不接受说话难听的评论。Palantir是做什么的相信大部分人了解这个公司，是从“抓获本拉登”这个关键字开始的。我最开始研究Palantir，是通过他们自己的一个投资者宣讲视频，里面吹的神乎其神，扬言竞品只关注客户的过去，PLTR可以帮助客户预","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf42255dfbbace8241a8ff4ff672cd0","width":"688","height":"371"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c5a69bd1324a9f4aa720856cbbe836","width":"688","height":"457"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f49402e5f03c8f552473813ad5a5ab6","width":"688","height":"407"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391982813","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}