简单就好没错的个人主页 - 老虎社区

简单就好没错

简单就好没错

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简单就好没错

2022-07-15

继续，再接再厉。怎样才能降低老虎佣金？

简单就好没错

2022-07-15

居然又找到了一笔更大的亏损，6月1号2号是我亏损最为巨大最为迅速的两天。源于5月31日我高额盈利之后，飘了....... 不作就不会死，谨记‼️

简单就好没错

2022-07-15

还是spxw, 这是我日内亏损最巨大的一笔，立在这里作为纪念，时时提醒自己做好风险管理

简单就好没错

2022-07-09

交了太多学费，请让我慢慢累积经验值

简单就好没错

2021-02-03

谁不知道苹果、台积电、特斯拉........好，这些肯定是仓位基石。WSB概念股，吃瓜仓就好，$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$$AMC院线(AMC)$$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$, 买这些也是有其内在逻辑的，买入时要清楚自己为什么买，坚定你的信念，让时间来验证。无脑梭哈纯属撞大运什么的，长不了。散户学习华尔街一说，笑笑就算了

简单就好没错

2021-02-18

加仓了$Unity Software Inc.(U)$,$苹果(AAPL)$，减仓了$老虎证券(TIGR)$

简单就好没错

2021-06-03

$AMC院線(AMC)$无语，缺乏想像力，早早下车了大部分

简单就好没错

2021-06-17

$Social Capital Hedosophia Holdings Corp III(CLOV)$被锤，头脑发热的结果

简单就好没错

2021-06-02

$AMC院線(AMC)$佛系了

简单就好没错

2021-04-27

$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$新低后企稳并连续爬升，长期看好。会是下一只10倍股吗？公司获得大订单，最大问题是产能不足，不是没有客户，是客户需求太多应付不过来

简单就好没错

2021-04-01

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$方向看多

简单就好没错

2021-06-09

$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$拿了几个月忽然雄起了

简单就好没错

2021-06-04

$福特汽車(F)$ 这支浓眉大眼的，会是下一支十倍股吗？

简单就好没错

2021-05-28

$AMC院線(AMC)$见证下历史吧

简单就好没错

2021-02-18

又加了点$Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.(KL)$的远期call，浮亏已经不少了，那又能怎样，现在行情这么火爆，风险偏好如此强烈，就算是对冲吧。我是不是做错了加了点$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$，看长线

简单就好没错

2021-06-10

$AMC院線(AMC)$不作就不会死

简单就好没错

2021-04-27

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$SS吗

简单就好没错

2021-04-16

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$看到一些向上的信号，小仓试下

简单就好没错

2021-01-29

如果散户都捂着不卖那空方就平不了仓了

抱歉，原内容已删除

简单就好没错

2021-06-17

多了解多关注

Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again

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这是我日内亏损最巨大的一笔，立在这里作为纪念，时时提醒自己做好风险管理","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f231ac75a8e110d19dd254fbafa2be","width":"1242","height":"2448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688798763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688793752,"gmtCreate":1657834031880,"gmtModify":1704868421176,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"继续，再接再厉。怎样才能降低老虎佣金？","listText":"继续，再接再厉。怎样才能降低老虎佣金？","text":"继续，再接再厉。怎样才能降低老虎佣金？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b086a011831bec07d054cc6ca4cf5f8f","width":"1242","height":"2448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688793752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688957262,"gmtCreate":1657302934159,"gmtModify":1704867169660,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"交了太多学费，请让我慢慢累积经验值","listText":"交了太多学费，请让我慢慢累积经验值","text":"交了太多学费，请让我慢慢累积经验值","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ba2b8785f8d0f2f837ba74939582f3","width":"1242","height":"2448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688957262","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692757701,"gmtCreate":1641234013440,"gmtModify":1641234013440,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"港股过去几个月太惨了","listText":"港股过去几个月太惨了","text":"港股过去几个月太惨了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692757701","repostId":"692328844","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":692328844,"gmtCreate":1640855257825,"gmtModify":1640953233722,"author":{"id":"3440721572920950","authorId":"3440721572920950","name":"美股解毒师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf0f514b8e5abb92266789b89f6e1e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440721572920950","authorIdStr":"3440721572920950"},"themes":[],"title":"2022年值得关注的十大港股！","htmlText":"牛，在中国人心中象征着大气与富足，是守家国平安、希冀风调雨顺的图腾。 2021年恰逢农历牛年，“牛气冲天”成为所有投资者的希冀。 然而，事与愿违，恒生指数全年下跌超15%，成为全球股市中表现最差的资本市场，没有之一！ 一片哀嚎之中，悲观者众，看空港股的声音不绝于耳。 难道2022年的港股，依然难以摆脱熊市命运吗？ 巴菲特曾说“当别人恐惧时我贪婪”，股谚亦有“牛市在绝望中诞生，在犹豫中成长，在乐观中成熟，在亢奋中灭亡”，站在当前时点，港股是否会迎来反弹？ 从估值上看，恒生指数在经历大跌之后，当下动态市盈率仅仅10倍左右，处于历史较低估值附近。 回溯历史，恒生指数曾在2016年达到7.34倍极值，以此对比，当下指数或仍有下跌空间，然而在这5年中，恒生指数已经改头换面。 随着港交所修改上市规则，允许同股不同权及未盈利生物医药股登陆资本市场，在短短五年中，美团、阿里巴巴、小米等互联网巨头纷纷上市，农夫山泉、药明生物等行业龙头齐聚，当下恒生指数成分股的构成已经由2016年时的金融、能源等传统行业变为可选消费和信息技术主导。 新兴行业的估值远高于金融能源等传统行业，因此，当下恒生指数的估值或已极具性价比！ 以低估值为抓手，老虎证券投研团队认为港股在2022年有望迎来反弹，采用自上而下选股法，我们看好以下几个行业： 一是互联网行业，今年监管部门坚决反垄断、防止资本无序扩张，在各类监管政策频繁出台之下，互联网公司业务受到一定影响，也大大打击了投资者持股信心。 目前，反垄断带来的影响已经在股价中得到充分体现，随着各家巨头开始梳理内部业务，反垄断对行业的影响接近尾声。 与此同时，互联网巨头估值逼近历史极值，有望在基本面稳固之下迎来踹息之机。 二是消费股，受疫情影响，全球大宗商品价格飙升，由此推升原材料价格，多家消费品企业在2021年的毛利率出现下滑。 临近年底，消费行业掀起涨价潮，从酱油到瓜子","listText":"牛，在中国人心中象征着大气与富足，是守家国平安、希冀风调雨顺的图腾。 2021年恰逢农历牛年，“牛气冲天”成为所有投资者的希冀。 然而，事与愿违，恒生指数全年下跌超15%，成为全球股市中表现最差的资本市场，没有之一！ 一片哀嚎之中，悲观者众，看空港股的声音不绝于耳。 难道2022年的港股，依然难以摆脱熊市命运吗？ 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成功抄底","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369ef12627eb5077a90e8f47515cee41","width":"1242","height":"2448"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698923639","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699144784,"gmtCreate":1639760023158,"gmtModify":1639760023158,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LABU\">$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LABU\">$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$</a>今天真的该抄了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LABU\">$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LABU\">$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$</a>今天真的该抄了","text":"$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$$Direxion每日三倍做多標普生物(LABU)$今天真的该抄了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699144784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":157944872,"gmtCreate":1625561969796,"gmtModify":1625561969796,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"白大褂🥼&amp;白手套","listText":"白大褂🥼&amp;白手套","text":"白大褂🥼&白手套","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/157944872","repostId":"1128717093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128717093","pubTimestamp":1625556485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128717093?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-06 15:28","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"徐翔本周五出狱？妻子应莹和青岛监狱的回应来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128717093","media":"新浪财经","summary":"7月6日消息，据悉，本周五，曾经的一代私募风云人物徐翔即将出狱。对此，徐翔妻子应莹向回应称，判决书上写的刑满释放日期是7月9日，至于是否有变动，自己并不了解。另外，关于涉及徐翔的资产甄别案和离婚案，暂未有新进展。而青岛监狱工作人员回复表示，自己对徐翔出狱一事并不清楚，这属于保密信息。今日，徐翔概念股集体异动，其中，$宁波中百$、$大恒科技$跌停，相关的$文峰股份$下跌3.4%，$华丽家族$下跌2.96%。","content":"<p>7月6日消息，据悉，本周五，曾经的一代私募风云人物徐翔即将出狱。对此，徐翔妻子应莹向回应称，判决书上写的刑满释放日期是7月9日，至于是否有变动，自己并不了解。另外，关于涉及徐翔的资产甄别案和离婚案，暂未有新进展。而青岛监狱工作人员回复表示，自己对徐翔出狱一事并不清楚，这属于保密信息。</p>\n<p>今日，徐翔概念股集体异动，其中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600857\">宁波中百</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600288\">大恒科技</a>跌停，相关的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601010\">文峰股份</a>下跌3.4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600503\">华丽家族</a>下跌2.96%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002bee738b4fecde43dffbcb3da77995\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33f2d8b7c5fb78038cdf33fa2af2e0ac\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>“A股恶人”徐翔本周五出狱！用3万暴赚210亿，收益率远超巴菲特</b></p>\n<p>“中国索罗斯”徐翔，从判决书来看，即将在7月9日，也就是本周五出狱。</p>\n<p>这个昔日“私募一哥”因操纵证券市场、内幕交易犯罪被判处有期徒刑5年6个月，没有减刑，也没有假释。</p>\n<p>早在两个月前，就有风声传出徐翔会在5月份出狱，当时引得“徐翔概念股”异动，相关股票盘中一度涨停。</p>\n<p>徐翔在业内是“神话”一般的存在，而真正出圈，跨界火遍财经圈和时尚圈的，当属他当年被捕时的这张照片。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf5a5d533dc8271b3ce12f4c17dea6e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>金融圈子里的人奇怪他为何穿着医生的“白大褂”，而混时尚圈的人则更为恼怒：这人是谁，怎么把这么出名的阿玛尼白西装穿成了地摊货。</p>\n<p><b>“炒股不跟解放南，便是神仙也枉然”</b></p>\n<p>徐翔1978年出生在一个父母都是国企工人的家庭，1993年，母亲郑素贞从信用社取了3万块钱，并用自己的资料在宁波证券开通了股票账户，15岁的徐翔开始“杀入”股市小试牛刀。</p>\n<p><b>到1997年底，徐翔的3万资金已经变成了300万。</b></p>\n<p>徐翔在18岁时放弃高考，专以炒股为主，随着国内资本市场由蛮荒渐入规范，次年12月，A股开始设立涨停板。</p>\n<p>徐翔在这个过程中很快摸索出一套涨停板打法，即依靠概率算法和速度，加上自己对交易风向的高度敏感和把握，<b>与几个擅长短线的朋友组成“宁波涨停板敢死队”。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527f0bf5e59da9bc12a155312a9c0fb6\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>敢死队利用人性贪婪的弱点，当某只股票即将涨停时，敢死队一拥而上拉封板，迅速引起市场注意，诱导散户进场追涨，涨停会引爆人气，从而不断地引发涨停。</b></p>\n<p>这个以徐翔为领头者，成员在20人左右的敢死队，以彪悍的投资风格雄霸一方，威名远播，其“一字断魂刀”的出货手法被称为经典，凡是被敢死队选中的股票，皆大起大落，大进大出，<b>短期内收益惊人。</b></p>\n<p>经过几次漂亮战后，敢死队在江湖上收获“炒股不跟解放南，便是神仙也枉然”的美誉，迅速征服了江浙沪甚至全国的投资者。</p>\n<p>2005年，徐翔从宁波迁到上海，经历了2007年—2008年的一波大牛市。<b>2009年12月7日，徐翔转型阳光私募，在上海创立泽熙。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8df1d114eccc46da412d2128f8c854e6\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>泽熙投资的产品以股票型信托为主，尤以擅长“抄底”、投资风格“快狠准”闻名。</p>\n<p><b>从“中国版索罗斯”到“A股恶人”</b></p>\n<p>徐翔从一开始就将自己与索罗斯、巴菲特等人对标。</p>\n<p>2004年，徐翔在自己的婚礼上收到了一份令他十分开心的礼物——一尊铜像，上面刻着“东方索罗斯”五个字，他对自己的妻子说，<b>“我的理想就是有一天能和索罗斯对决！”</b></p>\n<p>虽然徐翔将3万元本金变成了如今的210亿，20年年化复合收益率为96％，远超巴菲特46年20％的年化复合收益率。</p>\n<p>但事实证明，徐翔后面的路，越走越偏，虽然他将自己转型成了阳光私募，但并未能将自己真正地放在阳光下，以堪检验。</p>\n<p>从2011年开始，<b>徐翔等人与13家上市公司高管合谋抬升股价，助其高位套现。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde9ae12e797bc50db890219b8f06ec2\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2011年年底，重庆啤酒乙肝疫苗研发失败，股价从80元高位跌落，徐翔抓住机会，在24元时奋力抄底3000万股，令其火速反弹到36元，<b>短短一月暴赚数亿。</b></p>\n<p>2015年6月30日，王亚伟、莫泰山、但斌、江晖等13位私募大佬发布联合倡议书，全面唱多抄底行情，“只有徐翔不愿参与。宁波本地的证券业协会也找过他，请他参与救市，被他拒绝了。”</p>\n<p>在那轮股市雪崩中，几乎无人幸免，但徐翔却在演绎不败神话，泽熙一期产品净值逆势大涨31%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b33baf602ecfacb2a9f1e0365fa03a9\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2015年11月1日，徐翔正在宁波老家，参加祖母的百岁生日聚会。上午10点多钟，徐翔接到警告奔逃，驾车狂奔上G15高速公路前往上海，但警察已经封锁了交通，穿过奉化河上桥后，他被警方截停拘捕，锒铛入狱。</p>\n<p><b>徐翔因通过非法手段获取股市内幕信息，从事内幕交易、操纵股票交易价格，涉嫌违法犯罪，被特警带走。</b></p>\n<p>徐翔案发后，约210亿家庭财产被司法机关查封、扣押和冻结。</p>\n<p>2017年1月23日，青岛市中级人民法院一审宣判，<b>徐翔犯操纵证券市场罪，被判处有期徒刑5年6个月，并处罚金110亿元，没收违法所得约93.37亿元。徐翔服从法院判决，未上诉。</b></p>\n<p>这位私募大佬终于为自己“无知、无畏”买了单。</p>\n<p>一位“宁波敢死队”教父级人物评价徐翔：“年少成名，天赋与勤奋并重，其兴也勃；刚愎自用，随权贵翩舞灰域，其亡也忽。”</p>\n<p>而狱中的徐翔还曾表示，他希望将来能把自己的炒股秘籍教给儿子。</p>","source":"XLCJ","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n徐翔本周五出狱？妻子应莹和青岛监狱的回应来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 15:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-07-06/doc-ikqciyzk3865335.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月6日消息，据悉，本周五，曾经的一代私募风云人物徐翔即将出狱。对此，徐翔妻子应莹向回应称，判决书上写的刑满释放日期是7月9日，至于是否有变动，自己并不了解。另外，关于涉及徐翔的资产甄别案和离婚案，暂未有新进展。而青岛监狱工作人员回复表示，自己对徐翔出狱一事并不清楚，这属于保密信息。\n今日，徐翔概念股集体异动，其中，宁波中百、大恒科技跌停，相关的文峰股份下跌3.4%，华丽家族下跌2.96%。\n\n“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-07-06/doc-ikqciyzk3865335.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a16f10cea796eb2861c909ddb7cb955b","relate_stocks":{"SINA":"新浪"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2021-07-06/doc-ikqciyzk3865335.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128717093","content_text":"7月6日消息，据悉，本周五，曾经的一代私募风云人物徐翔即将出狱。对此，徐翔妻子应莹向回应称，判决书上写的刑满释放日期是7月9日，至于是否有变动，自己并不了解。另外，关于涉及徐翔的资产甄别案和离婚案，暂未有新进展。而青岛监狱工作人员回复表示，自己对徐翔出狱一事并不清楚，这属于保密信息。\n今日，徐翔概念股集体异动，其中，宁波中百、大恒科技跌停，相关的文峰股份下跌3.4%，华丽家族下跌2.96%。\n\n“A股恶人”徐翔本周五出狱！用3万暴赚210亿，收益率远超巴菲特\n“中国索罗斯”徐翔，从判决书来看，即将在7月9日，也就是本周五出狱。\n这个昔日“私募一哥”因操纵证券市场、内幕交易犯罪被判处有期徒刑5年6个月，没有减刑，也没有假释。\n早在两个月前，就有风声传出徐翔会在5月份出狱，当时引得“徐翔概念股”异动，相关股票盘中一度涨停。\n徐翔在业内是“神话”一般的存在，而真正出圈，跨界火遍财经圈和时尚圈的，当属他当年被捕时的这张照片。\n\n金融圈子里的人奇怪他为何穿着医生的“白大褂”，而混时尚圈的人则更为恼怒：这人是谁，怎么把这么出名的阿玛尼白西装穿成了地摊货。\n“炒股不跟解放南，便是神仙也枉然”\n徐翔1978年出生在一个父母都是国企工人的家庭，1993年，母亲郑素贞从信用社取了3万块钱，并用自己的资料在宁波证券开通了股票账户，15岁的徐翔开始“杀入”股市小试牛刀。\n到1997年底，徐翔的3万资金已经变成了300万。\n徐翔在18岁时放弃高考，专以炒股为主，随着国内资本市场由蛮荒渐入规范，次年12月，A股开始设立涨停板。\n徐翔在这个过程中很快摸索出一套涨停板打法，即依靠概率算法和速度，加上自己对交易风向的高度敏感和把握，与几个擅长短线的朋友组成“宁波涨停板敢死队”。\n\n敢死队利用人性贪婪的弱点，当某只股票即将涨停时，敢死队一拥而上拉封板，迅速引起市场注意，诱导散户进场追涨，涨停会引爆人气，从而不断地引发涨停。\n这个以徐翔为领头者，成员在20人左右的敢死队，以彪悍的投资风格雄霸一方，威名远播，其“一字断魂刀”的出货手法被称为经典，凡是被敢死队选中的股票，皆大起大落，大进大出，短期内收益惊人。\n经过几次漂亮战后，敢死队在江湖上收获“炒股不跟解放南，便是神仙也枉然”的美誉，迅速征服了江浙沪甚至全国的投资者。\n2005年，徐翔从宁波迁到上海，经历了2007年—2008年的一波大牛市。2009年12月7日，徐翔转型阳光私募，在上海创立泽熙。\n\n泽熙投资的产品以股票型信托为主，尤以擅长“抄底”、投资风格“快狠准”闻名。\n从“中国版索罗斯”到“A股恶人”\n徐翔从一开始就将自己与索罗斯、巴菲特等人对标。\n2004年，徐翔在自己的婚礼上收到了一份令他十分开心的礼物——一尊铜像，上面刻着“东方索罗斯”五个字，他对自己的妻子说，“我的理想就是有一天能和索罗斯对决！”\n虽然徐翔将3万元本金变成了如今的210亿，20年年化复合收益率为96％，远超巴菲特46年20％的年化复合收益率。\n但事实证明，徐翔后面的路，越走越偏，虽然他将自己转型成了阳光私募，但并未能将自己真正地放在阳光下，以堪检验。\n从2011年开始，徐翔等人与13家上市公司高管合谋抬升股价，助其高位套现。\n\n2011年年底，重庆啤酒乙肝疫苗研发失败，股价从80元高位跌落，徐翔抓住机会，在24元时奋力抄底3000万股，令其火速反弹到36元，短短一月暴赚数亿。\n2015年6月30日，王亚伟、莫泰山、但斌、江晖等13位私募大佬发布联合倡议书，全面唱多抄底行情，“只有徐翔不愿参与。宁波本地的证券业协会也找过他，请他参与救市，被他拒绝了。”\n在那轮股市雪崩中，几乎无人幸免，但徐翔却在演绎不败神话，泽熙一期产品净值逆势大涨31%。\n\n2015年11月1日，徐翔正在宁波老家，参加祖母的百岁生日聚会。上午10点多钟，徐翔接到警告奔逃，驾车狂奔上G15高速公路前往上海，但警察已经封锁了交通，穿过奉化河上桥后，他被警方截停拘捕，锒铛入狱。\n徐翔因通过非法手段获取股市内幕信息，从事内幕交易、操纵股票交易价格，涉嫌违法犯罪，被特警带走。\n徐翔案发后，约210亿家庭财产被司法机关查封、扣押和冻结。\n2017年1月23日，青岛市中级人民法院一审宣判，徐翔犯操纵证券市场罪，被判处有期徒刑5年6个月，并处罚金110亿元，没收违法所得约93.37亿元。徐翔服从法院判决，未上诉。\n这位私募大佬终于为自己“无知、无畏”买了单。\n一位“宁波敢死队”教父级人物评价徐翔：“年少成名，天赋与勤奋并重，其兴也勃；刚愎自用，随权贵翩舞灰域，其亡也忽。”\n而狱中的徐翔还曾表示，他希望将来能把自己的炒股秘籍教给儿子。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151639742,"gmtCreate":1625078029486,"gmtModify":1625078029486,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"爱彼迎，解封收益","listText":"爱彼迎，解封收益","text":"爱彼迎，解封收益","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/277ecd76832536228d9a4e82223d7bf1","width":"1125","height":"2298"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151639742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":127927381,"gmtCreate":1624828420043,"gmtModify":1624828420043,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$愛彼迎(ABNB)$</a>啥也不说了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$愛彼迎(ABNB)$</a>啥也不说了","text":"$愛彼迎(ABNB)$啥也不说了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be7a55b1062172d0608aa478873ca7eb","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127927381","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":125589633,"gmtCreate":1624680214322,"gmtModify":1624680214322,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘子太大了，不知成长性能否阿尔法","listText":"盘子太大了，不知成长性能否阿尔法","text":"盘子太大了，不知成长性能否阿尔法","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125589633","repostId":"1108941456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108941456","pubTimestamp":1624664800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108941456?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-26 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108941456","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.Being a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.I believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.At 26-64x this year's expected net profi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.</li>\n <li>Being a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.</li>\n <li>I believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bb49d385ec6d3044db2f4474cbb2c57\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MagioreStock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Going with FAANG stocks, i.e. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), has been a winning trade in recent years, as those companies delivered strong gains for their owners. These companies do, however, differ quite a lot from each other in a range of metrics, including growth, valuation, and there are also differences when it comes to each company's specific risks and moat. Apple is the largest company of these in terms of profits and market capitalization, but that does not necessarily make it the best investment. In this report, we will take a look at how Apple compares versus the other FAANG members.</p>\n<p><b>Are FAANG Stocks A Good Investment?</b></p>\n<p>Looking back a couple of years, the answer is pretty clear that FAANG stocks at least<i>were</i>a good investment in the recent past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2b8e2b9caf99f74c28bafc10a0a872\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"484\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With gains of 200% to 460%, these five companies easily trounced the broad market's returns over the same time, and all led to hefty gains, at least tripling an investor's money in just five years. The factors that led to these strong gains do, at least partially, still exist today. Notably, these five companies are generating compelling earnings growth, have leadership positions in the markets they address, possess strong brands that are well-received by consumers, and seem to have strong, long-term-oriented leadership teams.</p>\n<p>These factors are still in place today, which indicates that FAANG stocks could also be good investments in coming years, although investors should, even with high-quality companies, also consider a stock's valuation. Today, these companies do not look extremely cheap in most cases:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef865eea7af4369048432a9c85d1d83\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 26-64x this year's expected net profits, FAANG stocks can't really be called bargains, although the above-average valuations are, at least to some degree, justified due to the above-average earnings growth that these companies do generate. In any case, I doubt that investors owning FAANG stocks today will see 200%-400%+ returns over the next five years, as this seems unlikely for each of these five stocks due to the combination of current valuations and expected earnings growth. This does, however, not mean that FAANG stocks must be bad investments or underperform the market. In fact, in recent articles, I showcased that solid or even quite attractive returns can be expected from&nbsp;Facebook,Amazon, and Apple, even though the 30%-50% annual returns are likely a thing of the past - that's just mathematics, as no stock can grow at that rate forever.</p>\n<p><b>What Investors Can Expect From Apple</b></p>\n<p>Apple Inc. is not the highest-growth FAANG stock at all. Its growth has been solid but not spectacular in the recent past. This isn't a large surprise, as there is only a certain number of consumers that want to buy an iPhone or an iPad, and that amount can't grow by 50% a year for a very long time. Nevertheless, due to some market growth, some price increases, and growth from its services business, Apple should still be able to deliver sizeable revenue growth in the long run. New products such as the car project are a potential wildcard, but at least for the foreseeable future, this will not be a major profit center for the company. Apple also has a very ambitious shareholder return program, and its buybacks are an important factor for its future earnings per share growth. I believe that, overall, a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate will be very much achievable for Apple in the long run. Combined with some multiple depression that I expect in coming years, as Apple will likely not trade at a high-20s earnings multiple forever, this gets me to a total return estimate&nbsp;in the 7% range. This is significantly less compared to what investors saw over the last couple of years, but on the other hand, 7% annual returns stemming from a strong, stable blue-chip stock such as Apple are not unattractive. I believe that some of the FAANG stocks could deliver stronger returns, primarily Alphabet and Facebook.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Both Apple Inc. and Facebook have a great market position, but Facebook is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple. Apple has, in the smartphone industry, a market share of around 20%, although more in the higher-end segments. Facebook, for comparison, owns four out of the top five social media networks, with Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp. Clearly, FB absolutely dominates its industry. Facebook's industry is also growing quicker than the hardware IT markets that Apple serves, which is why Facebook's growth was significantly higher than Apple's growth in the recent past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fd8043ca75dcb2c38f5ffa427c8c0b9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Facebook grew its revenue by well above 300% over the last five years, while Apple's revenue grew by a little less than 50%. When we look back at the total return chart at the beginning of this article and compare it to this revenue chart, we see that Apple's returns stemmed from multiple expansion to a large degree, whereas Facebook's stock actually got less expensive over the last five years. Facebook's business growth clearly outpaced its share price gains, which has made its shares less expensive. This also explains why Facebook, today, trades below the long-term median earnings multiple, whereas Apple's valuation is at the higher end of the historic range:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d49e0007aa77608b2992a9fef2142d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The fact that Facebook trades at a historic discount points to a solid entry price, whereas the same can't be said about Apple. On top of that, Facebook will also grow much faster in the future - at least if the analyst community is correct:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16c9b3e2eac182d42686bcd8a98fc5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>While Apple is expected to see revenue growth of around 10% over the next two years, Facebook is expected to grow by 40% over the same time. Facebook's earnings per share growth estimate is also materially higher than that of Apple.</p>\n<p>To sum things up, we can say that Facebook is growing much faster, is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple, and its shares are trading at a discount compared to the historic average, whereas Apple's shares are historically expensive. This combination makes me believe that the total return outlook for Facebook is better compared to that of Apple.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>When we compare Apple to Alphabet, the comparison is relatively similar to what we just saw when comparing Applet to Facebook. Alphabet is a company that is growing quicker than Apple, and that can, to a large degree, be explained by its great market position and the higher market growth rate. Online advertising is a market that has been growing quicker than the tablet or smartphone market in recent years, and the same will, I believe, be true in the foreseeable future as well.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6360514d097081c546a0ccacfbdc7af6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet is forecasted to grow its revenue by more than 30% over the next two years, versus Apple's 10% growth. On top of that, at close to 20%, Alphabet is also expected to grow its earnings per share at a higher rate.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, despite its significantly better growth forecast, Alphabet isn't a lot more expensive compared to Apple. GOOG trades at 29x forward earnings, versus AAPL's 26x forward earnings multiple. Does it make sense for GOOG to trade at a premium of just 10%, while its expected growth is one and a half times as high as that of AAPL? You be the judge, but to me, it seems like the valuation looks better at Alphabet as long as we account for the stronger growth expectations. On top of that, with a net cash position of around $120 billion, Alphabet also has one of the best balance sheets in the world. Apple, for comparison, has a somewhat<i>smaller</i>net cash position of $80 billion, although that still makes for a very strong balance sheet, of course.</p>\n<p>All in all, we can summarize that Alphabet is growing faster today, is expected to grow significantly faster in the next two years and in the long run, has an even better balance sheet and a more dominant market position, and yet it trades at an earnings multiple that is only 10% higher than that of Apple. To me, Alphabet thus looks like the more attractive pick among these two at current prices.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Versus Netflix And Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Looking at the last two remaining companies in the FAANG group, we see that, once again, AAPL is growing at a slower pace. Unless Facebook and Alphabet, however, both Netflix and Amazon are way more expensive than Apple.</p>\n<p>This huge valuation premium offsets, at least to some degree, the higher expected growth, which is why I believe that Netflix and Amazon do not really seem like much better picks compared to Apple:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ccc2536fa3cadf06639a89e0b211b9a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>AMZN and NFLX trade at PEG ratios of 1.8 and 1.9, which does not represent a clear discount compared to AAPL's valuation. On top of that, these two companies do not possess balance sheets that are as strong as that of Apple.</p>\n<p>Netflix, especially, looks significantly worse compared to the other FAANG members in terms of balance sheet strength and cash generation:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d84f013051fbb00b6b488f5cfed66d4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Netflix is the only FAANG member with a meaningful net debt position, and its free cash flows are equal to just 1% of its market capitalization. Netflix grows fast, but to me, it seems doubtful whether the current valuation is justified. Considering that more and more companies are pushing into the streaming market, including Disney (DIS), Amazon, and AT&amp;T(NYSE:T), more competition might hurt Netflix's margins in the future. NFLX thus seems like the worst pick among the five FAANG stocks to me, as it combines a high valuation, weak cash flows, and a somewhat uncertain competitive picture, and I think that is not fully negated by its strong growth alone.</p>\n<p>Amazon has a better market position than Netflix, a better balance sheet, and its valuation, relative to its growth, is a little lower than that of Netflix. I would rate Amazon as more or less equally attractive to Apple, although the two companies are quite different from each other in terms of growth, valuation, and shareholder returns.</p>\n<p><b>Which Is The Best FAANG Stock To Buy?</b></p>\n<p>Not every investor has the same goals, thus the answer may be different depending on what you are looking for in a stock. To me, Apple seems like a solid, but outstanding pick at current prices - the business undoubtedly is strong, the balance sheet is great, shareholder returns are hefty, but the valuation seems stretched, especially when we consider how cheap shares were in the past.</p>\n<p>Alphabet and Facebook do seem like the best FAANG picks to me today, as they combine strong growth with valuations that are only marginally higher than that of Apple. On top of that, both Alphabet and Facebook dominate their markets. Amazon is a stock that I would rate as a solid investment at today's price, so more or less in line with AAPL, whereas Netflix seems like the weakest pick among these five to me.</p>\n<p>Depending on your time horizon, appetite for risk, etc. you may disagree, however - and that's perfectly fine. I'd be glad to hear your top picks and reasoning in the comment section!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Apple A Better Buy Than Other FAANG Stocks?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-26 07:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.\nBeing a great company does not mean ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436558-apple-better-buy-faang-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108941456","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple undoubtedly is a great company, with a strong brand, excellent margins, and fundamentals, a fortress balance sheet, and massive shareholder returns.\nBeing a great company does not mean that the stock must be a great buy. However, valuations are significantly higher than they were historically.\nI believe that some of the other FAANG stocks are better, while others are worse. AAPL seems like a solid, but not a spectacular investment at today's valuation.\n\nMagioreStock/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nGoing with FAANG stocks, i.e. Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG)(GOOGL), has been a winning trade in recent years, as those companies delivered strong gains for their owners. These companies do, however, differ quite a lot from each other in a range of metrics, including growth, valuation, and there are also differences when it comes to each company's specific risks and moat. Apple is the largest company of these in terms of profits and market capitalization, but that does not necessarily make it the best investment. In this report, we will take a look at how Apple compares versus the other FAANG members.\nAre FAANG Stocks A Good Investment?\nLooking back a couple of years, the answer is pretty clear that FAANG stocks at leastwerea good investment in the recent past:\nData by YCharts\nWith gains of 200% to 460%, these five companies easily trounced the broad market's returns over the same time, and all led to hefty gains, at least tripling an investor's money in just five years. The factors that led to these strong gains do, at least partially, still exist today. Notably, these five companies are generating compelling earnings growth, have leadership positions in the markets they address, possess strong brands that are well-received by consumers, and seem to have strong, long-term-oriented leadership teams.\nThese factors are still in place today, which indicates that FAANG stocks could also be good investments in coming years, although investors should, even with high-quality companies, also consider a stock's valuation. Today, these companies do not look extremely cheap in most cases:\nData by YCharts\nAt 26-64x this year's expected net profits, FAANG stocks can't really be called bargains, although the above-average valuations are, at least to some degree, justified due to the above-average earnings growth that these companies do generate. In any case, I doubt that investors owning FAANG stocks today will see 200%-400%+ returns over the next five years, as this seems unlikely for each of these five stocks due to the combination of current valuations and expected earnings growth. This does, however, not mean that FAANG stocks must be bad investments or underperform the market. In fact, in recent articles, I showcased that solid or even quite attractive returns can be expected from Facebook,Amazon, and Apple, even though the 30%-50% annual returns are likely a thing of the past - that's just mathematics, as no stock can grow at that rate forever.\nWhat Investors Can Expect From Apple\nApple Inc. is not the highest-growth FAANG stock at all. Its growth has been solid but not spectacular in the recent past. This isn't a large surprise, as there is only a certain number of consumers that want to buy an iPhone or an iPad, and that amount can't grow by 50% a year for a very long time. Nevertheless, due to some market growth, some price increases, and growth from its services business, Apple should still be able to deliver sizeable revenue growth in the long run. New products such as the car project are a potential wildcard, but at least for the foreseeable future, this will not be a major profit center for the company. Apple also has a very ambitious shareholder return program, and its buybacks are an important factor for its future earnings per share growth. I believe that, overall, a high-single-digit earnings per share growth rate will be very much achievable for Apple in the long run. Combined with some multiple depression that I expect in coming years, as Apple will likely not trade at a high-20s earnings multiple forever, this gets me to a total return estimate in the 7% range. This is significantly less compared to what investors saw over the last couple of years, but on the other hand, 7% annual returns stemming from a strong, stable blue-chip stock such as Apple are not unattractive. I believe that some of the FAANG stocks could deliver stronger returns, primarily Alphabet and Facebook.\nApple Versus Facebook\nBoth Apple Inc. and Facebook have a great market position, but Facebook is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple. Apple has, in the smartphone industry, a market share of around 20%, although more in the higher-end segments. Facebook, for comparison, owns four out of the top five social media networks, with Facebook, Instagram, Facebook Messenger, and WhatsApp. Clearly, FB absolutely dominates its industry. Facebook's industry is also growing quicker than the hardware IT markets that Apple serves, which is why Facebook's growth was significantly higher than Apple's growth in the recent past:\nData by YCharts\nFacebook grew its revenue by well above 300% over the last five years, while Apple's revenue grew by a little less than 50%. When we look back at the total return chart at the beginning of this article and compare it to this revenue chart, we see that Apple's returns stemmed from multiple expansion to a large degree, whereas Facebook's stock actually got less expensive over the last five years. Facebook's business growth clearly outpaced its share price gains, which has made its shares less expensive. This also explains why Facebook, today, trades below the long-term median earnings multiple, whereas Apple's valuation is at the higher end of the historic range:\nData by YCharts\nThe fact that Facebook trades at a historic discount points to a solid entry price, whereas the same can't be said about Apple. On top of that, Facebook will also grow much faster in the future - at least if the analyst community is correct:\nData by YCharts\nWhile Apple is expected to see revenue growth of around 10% over the next two years, Facebook is expected to grow by 40% over the same time. Facebook's earnings per share growth estimate is also materially higher than that of Apple.\nTo sum things up, we can say that Facebook is growing much faster, is even more dominant in its industry compared to Apple, and its shares are trading at a discount compared to the historic average, whereas Apple's shares are historically expensive. This combination makes me believe that the total return outlook for Facebook is better compared to that of Apple.\nApple Versus Alphabet\nWhen we compare Apple to Alphabet, the comparison is relatively similar to what we just saw when comparing Applet to Facebook. Alphabet is a company that is growing quicker than Apple, and that can, to a large degree, be explained by its great market position and the higher market growth rate. Online advertising is a market that has been growing quicker than the tablet or smartphone market in recent years, and the same will, I believe, be true in the foreseeable future as well.\nData by YCharts\nAlphabet is forecasted to grow its revenue by more than 30% over the next two years, versus Apple's 10% growth. On top of that, at close to 20%, Alphabet is also expected to grow its earnings per share at a higher rate.\nNevertheless, despite its significantly better growth forecast, Alphabet isn't a lot more expensive compared to Apple. GOOG trades at 29x forward earnings, versus AAPL's 26x forward earnings multiple. Does it make sense for GOOG to trade at a premium of just 10%, while its expected growth is one and a half times as high as that of AAPL? You be the judge, but to me, it seems like the valuation looks better at Alphabet as long as we account for the stronger growth expectations. On top of that, with a net cash position of around $120 billion, Alphabet also has one of the best balance sheets in the world. Apple, for comparison, has a somewhatsmallernet cash position of $80 billion, although that still makes for a very strong balance sheet, of course.\nAll in all, we can summarize that Alphabet is growing faster today, is expected to grow significantly faster in the next two years and in the long run, has an even better balance sheet and a more dominant market position, and yet it trades at an earnings multiple that is only 10% higher than that of Apple. To me, Alphabet thus looks like the more attractive pick among these two at current prices.\nApple Versus Netflix And Amazon\nLooking at the last two remaining companies in the FAANG group, we see that, once again, AAPL is growing at a slower pace. Unless Facebook and Alphabet, however, both Netflix and Amazon are way more expensive than Apple.\nThis huge valuation premium offsets, at least to some degree, the higher expected growth, which is why I believe that Netflix and Amazon do not really seem like much better picks compared to Apple:\nData by YCharts\nAMZN and NFLX trade at PEG ratios of 1.8 and 1.9, which does not represent a clear discount compared to AAPL's valuation. On top of that, these two companies do not possess balance sheets that are as strong as that of Apple.\nNetflix, especially, looks significantly worse compared to the other FAANG members in terms of balance sheet strength and cash generation:\nData by YCharts\nNetflix is the only FAANG member with a meaningful net debt position, and its free cash flows are equal to just 1% of its market capitalization. Netflix grows fast, but to me, it seems doubtful whether the current valuation is justified. Considering that more and more companies are pushing into the streaming market, including Disney (DIS), Amazon, and AT&T(NYSE:T), more competition might hurt Netflix's margins in the future. NFLX thus seems like the worst pick among the five FAANG stocks to me, as it combines a high valuation, weak cash flows, and a somewhat uncertain competitive picture, and I think that is not fully negated by its strong growth alone.\nAmazon has a better market position than Netflix, a better balance sheet, and its valuation, relative to its growth, is a little lower than that of Netflix. I would rate Amazon as more or less equally attractive to Apple, although the two companies are quite different from each other in terms of growth, valuation, and shareholder returns.\nWhich Is The Best FAANG Stock To Buy?\nNot every investor has the same goals, thus the answer may be different depending on what you are looking for in a stock. To me, Apple seems like a solid, but outstanding pick at current prices - the business undoubtedly is strong, the balance sheet is great, shareholder returns are hefty, but the valuation seems stretched, especially when we consider how cheap shares were in the past.\nAlphabet and Facebook do seem like the best FAANG picks to me today, as they combine strong growth with valuations that are only marginally higher than that of Apple. On top of that, both Alphabet and Facebook dominate their markets. Amazon is a stock that I would rate as a solid investment at today's price, so more or less in line with AAPL, whereas Netflix seems like the weakest pick among these five to me.\nDepending on your time horizon, appetite for risk, etc. you may disagree, however - and that's perfectly fine. I'd be glad to hear your top picks and reasoning in the comment section!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":122724363,"gmtCreate":1624634190352,"gmtModify":1624634190352,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TQQQ\">$納指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$</a>惨，纳指太强","listText":"<a 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这支浓眉大眼的，会是下一支十倍股吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0369200672b938e4a3730ba8d9259ab1","width":"1125","height":"3231"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116175936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556107184919133","authorId":"3556107184919133","name":"华尔街赌侠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb24ac14e4f20e195c988697b5e1547e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556107184919133","authorIdStr":"3556107184919133"},"content":"不会的，除非所有传统汽车厂商全部十倍。福特对比丰田戴了姆没什么特别的地方","text":"不会的，除非所有传统汽车厂商全部十倍。福特对比丰田戴了姆没什么特别的地方","html":"不会的，除非所有传统汽车厂商全部十倍。福特对比丰田戴了姆没什么特别的地方"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135751648,"gmtCreate":1622187486584,"gmtModify":1622187486584,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a>见证下历史吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a>见证下历史吧","text":"$AMC院線(AMC)$见证下历史吧","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/358cdd80a3cb708527b14fba758920b3","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135751648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384073841,"gmtCreate":1613600123683,"gmtModify":1613600123683,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又加了点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KL\">$Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.(KL)$</a>的 远期call，浮亏已经不少了，那又能怎样，现在行情这么火爆，风险偏好如此强烈，就算是对冲吧。我是不是做错了加了点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>，看长线","listText":"又加了点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KL\">$Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.(KL)$</a>的 远期call，浮亏已经不少了，那又能怎样，现在行情这么火爆，风险偏好如此强烈，就算是对冲吧。我是不是做错了加了点<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>，看长线","text":"又加了点$Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd.(KL)$的 远期call，浮亏已经不少了，那又能怎样，现在行情这么火爆，风险偏好如此强烈，就算是对冲吧。我是不是做错了加了点$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$，看长线","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384073841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189236261,"gmtCreate":1623273210553,"gmtModify":1623273210553,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a>不作就不会死","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院線(AMC)$</a>不作就不会死","text":"$AMC院線(AMC)$不作就不会死","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a6e0682e44097db824830aab73919cc","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189236261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374553147,"gmtCreate":1619463122789,"gmtModify":1619463122789,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>SS吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>SS吗","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$SS吗","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e822754a76d51ca7d4a2125b0ffe22ea","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374553147","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347417725,"gmtCreate":1618521611467,"gmtModify":1618521611467,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>看到一些向上的信号，小仓试下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>看到一些向上的信号，小仓试下","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$看到一些向上的信号，小仓试下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec76058f669962dc2ef877b170d10b39","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347417725","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318777389,"gmtCreate":1611897319541,"gmtModify":1703755822523,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果散户都捂着不卖那空方就平不了仓了","listText":"如果散户都捂着不卖那空方就平不了仓了","text":"如果散户都捂着不卖那空方就平不了仓了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318777389","repostId":"1189643321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163297308,"gmtCreate":1623885620004,"gmtModify":1623885620004,"author":{"id":"3556938315267406","authorId":"3556938315267406","name":"简单就好没错","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f012b58646df639be52448ccbb9be1a7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556938315267406","authorIdStr":"3556938315267406"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"多了解多关注","listText":"多了解多关注","text":"多了解多关注","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163297308","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148768572?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>\n <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>\n <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>\n <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p>\n<p>In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p>\n<p><b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p>\n<p>Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p>\n<p>Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p>\n<p>It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p>\n<p>I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p>\n<p>Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p>\n<p><b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p>\n<p>Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Year</td>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>2019</td>\n   <td>2018</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Revenue</td>\n   <td>$2.54B</td>\n   <td>$1.9B</td>\n   <td>$1.73B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Gross Profit</td>\n   <td>$1.59B</td>\n   <td>$1.46B</td>\n   <td>$1.45B</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MAUs</td>\n   <td>107M (+19%)</td>\n   <td><p>90M (+10%)</p></td>\n   <td>82M</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>\n   <td><b>64M</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>*Growth (Year-over-Year)</p>\n<p>The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p>\n<p>In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p>\n<p>Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p>\n<p><b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p>\n<p>Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p>\n<p>Short Interest - Still High</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p>\n<p>Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p>\n<p>I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-16 13:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}