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顺风而行

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2020-06-04

$希伯伦科技(HEBT)$看了下Grizzly发的那篇报告，好水啊，通篇推测，干货数据啥也没有，真就纸面数据呗，来点真实的行不行？想起了以前的报告还引用知乎匿名回答就忍不住笑出声

2020-09-08

$希伯伦科技(HEBT)$有涨就有跌，心态放平，原始业务剥离转型本来就是一个漫长的过程，回看年初到现在已经是一个飞跃了，只是其中见利加仓把收益亏去了一部分，看了看说不好的无非是高点入场了，只想说看好长线大可不必拘泥于一时，心态保持好，徐徐以待

“巨鲸”豪赌科技股暴跌后美股何去何从？

2020-06-01

$蔚来(NIO)$上五上五！

2020-09-08

$嘉楠科技(CAN)$来看看底在哪里

2020-09-10

$希伯伦科技(HEBT)$这不就开始了么

2020-08-06

$希伯伦科技(HEBT)$找回之前的感觉！

2020-09-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$还是特斯拉猛啊，7月进场到现在

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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暴跌后美股何去何从？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2065339297","media":"第一财经","summary":"“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？　　作者： 周艾琳 　　多年前，摩根大通伦敦首席投资办公室（CIO）的一名交易员交易了上千亿元的CDX（信用违约互换）头寸，导致衍生品市场动荡，也造成了超60","content":"<div>\n<p>“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？　　作者： 周艾琳 　　多年前，摩根大通伦敦首席投资办公室（CIO）的一名交易员交易了上千亿元的CDX（信用违约互换）头寸，导致衍生品市场动荡，也造成了超60亿美元的巨额衍生品亏损，同时他为自己赢得了“伦敦鲸”的名号。近期，孙正义(Masayoshi Son)旗下的日本软银集团（SoftBank）则被封“纳斯达克巨鲸”（Nasdaq Whale）。　　从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-09-07/doc-iivhvpwy5260997.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-07 05:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-09-07/doc-iivhvpwy5260997.shtml><strong>第一财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？　　作者： 周艾琳 　　多年前，摩根大通伦敦首席投资办公室（CIO）的一名交易员交易了上千亿元的CDX（信用违约互换）头寸，导致衍生品市场动荡，也造成了超60亿美元的巨额衍生品亏损，同时他为自己赢得了“伦敦鲸”的名号。近期，孙正义(Masayoshi Son)旗下的日本软银集团（SoftBank）则被封“纳斯达克巨鲸”（Nasdaq Whale）。　　从...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-09-07/doc-iivhvpwy5260997.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a00dac9da971ee0e08b72a17d0d0b507","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-09-07/doc-iivhvpwy5260997.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2065339297","content_text":"“巨鲸”豪赌科技股 暴跌后美股何去何从？　　作者： 周艾琳 　　多年前，摩根大通伦敦首席投资办公室（CIO）的一名交易员交易了上千亿元的CDX（信用违约互换）头寸，导致衍生品市场动荡，也造成了超60亿美元的巨额衍生品亏损，同时他为自己赢得了“伦敦鲸”的名号。近期，孙正义(Masayoshi Son)旗下的日本软银集团（SoftBank）则被封“纳斯达克巨鲸”（Nasdaq Whale）。　　从上周四(9月3日)开始，美股连跌两日。纳斯达克指数两日高达6%的跌幅吓坏了不少投资者，尤其是国际金价、比特币等同步下挫，这不禁让人感到“3月重现”——抛售一切、只为换取美元流动性。　　尽管众多机构人士只是将其视作涨幅过大后的正常技术回调，但另一个消息则令市场震惊——也就在暴跌之日，外媒援引知情人士的话报道称，在过去的一个月里，软银购入约40亿美元（约合274亿元人民币）科技股看涨期权，推高了交易量，一时间引发交易狂潮。眼下，软银被视为科技股涨势波动的幕后推手之一。　　当然，软银很可能只是“巨鲸”之一。引发市场担忧的是，这种大单下注看涨期权而推升股价的操作在市场上行时自然会加速推升行情，但反馈效应是双向的，即当这个股价下跌时，正反馈转向负反馈，做市商将在下跌过程中加速抛售手中股票。这是否意味着市场的下挫风险仍在加剧？　　“虽然我不知道他们为何要玩这种游戏，但在当前的形势下，有两个重要因素不能忽略，这也是为何大家持续看好美股尤其是成长型股票的原因。首先，这些科技公司不仅盈利强劲，而且不断重塑、控制人们的消费行为，疫情则将这种革命至少向前推进了5年。同时，美联储盯住平均通胀的新货币政策框架非常鸽派，财政扩张也在持续。”某华尔街投行资深主管冯磊（Mitch）对第一财经记者表示，“因此很可能我们仍在美股上行的早期，‘巨鲸’疯狂追逐科技股恰恰反映了这点。这次回调更像一个上行周期的健康减速。”　　豪赌科技股隐藏的风险　　上周的美股科技股暴跌背后隐藏了两个惊人的事实。其中一个众人皆知——今年美股不断创下历史新高，从3月22日的最低点至今，纳斯达克100指数涨幅高达65%，较疫情前的历史高点还高出近21%。多位接受第一财经记者采访的对冲基金人士表示此前被惊人的涨势逼空，而美国散户在远程办公的情况下更是前赴后继涌入美股。　　另一个现象则在暴跌之际才被曝出——“巨鲸”们的科技股豪赌。据英国《金融时报》报道，知情人士称，软银通过一系列交易购买了价值数十亿美元的美国股票衍生品，推动与单个公司相关的合约创下历史最高交易量，也推动大型科技股狂热上涨，随后在上周四和周五大幅回落。一位银行家将其描述为一场“危险”的赌博。　　大举进入期权市场的举动，也标志着软银这一投资巨头的新篇章。近年来，该公司通过其1000亿美元的创投基金愿景基金（Vision Fund），大幅押注科技初创企业的股权。在疫情打击了这类投资后，软银则成立了一家投资二级市场股票的资管机构。　　华尔街人士也对记者分析称，具体的操作手法应该是大量买入苹果、谷歌、微软和特斯拉等科技股，但其手法不是买正股而是买看涨期权（call option），类似当年保时捷逼死空头的手法。　　例如，软银买下1800美元的看涨期权，而当特斯拉股价到2000美元时，肯定可以收正股，券商就不得不找正股卖给他们，于是买股拉高股价。但之所以科技股又出现大跌，可能的情况是，当股价进一步涨到2100美元时，他们就卖出了。这种手法在今年夏季并不少见。　　另一资深期权交易人士也在“三思期权”发表研究文章提及，过去两周，期权市场出现了一个大鳄，大手笔买入单只科技股的看涨期权。这个买家几乎肯定是大型金融机构，巨大的交易量把亚马逊、脸书等公司的虚值看涨期权交易量拉升了几个档次。随着股价上涨，该客户期权的对手盘做市商不得不买入更多，引发了一场科技股抢筹行情。　　知名对冲基金Citadel认为，这位大鳄花费超过10亿美元的权利金(而这些期权的名义金超过200亿美元)，这是多年来所见的最大个股期权买入现金流之一。　　与此同时，纳斯达克指数成份股的日均股票期权合约交易量，从4月的日均400万张升至8月的日均550万张，成交量跃升38%。鉴于这几只科技股票在该指数中权重约40%，单只股票的波动率上涨也导致指数的隐含波动率上涨。这也是为何在过去一周，波动率指数（VIX）罕见地与股市一起上涨。　　再进一步，这几笔交易有什么影响？首先，由于做市商作为看涨期权的卖方，交易完成之后为了控制风险，首先需要买入股票做Delta对冲，从而推升价格走高；其次，作为看涨期权卖方的做市商有“负伽马”敞口，简单来说，这意味着公司股价上涨时他们需要从市场上购买更多股票来对冲，其行为与股价形成正反馈。这就解释了为何纳斯达克指数在8月中旬之后上涨接近14%，而小盘股指数（罗素2000指数）几乎没有任何表现，表明这笔大交易以及背后的反馈效应是推动这波上涨的重要原因之一。　　对市场而言的风险在于，当股价下跌时，正反馈转向负反馈，做市商将在下跌过程中加速抛售手中股票。　　回调过后市场何去何从　　但是，“巨鲸”绝非今年3月来美股大涨的唯一推手，与其说“巨鲸”是科技股暴涨的“因”，更多人认为是“果”。　　“调整还是很正常的，因为部分科技股确实涨得太快太猛，而获利了结引发的回调实则是健康的。”美国Stone Forest Capital合伙人兼董事总经理Rob Li对第一财经记者称，“包括美国在内的全球经济还是在向上复苏的阶段，美联储新的平均通胀目标设定也非常鸽派，所以市场还是大概率向上。”在他看来，鉴于11月美国大选临近，市场难免波动。　　无独有偶，冯磊告诉第一财经记者，这仍是一个技术性调整。“纳斯达克也有继续下跌5%~10%的可能性。但就长期来看，这仍是入场的机会。市场不确定性仍然很多，我们可能会看到银行、能源和工业等此前跑输大盘的板块开始追赶，但是科技领军企业仍然会持续领跑。”他表示。　　从机构的持仓来看，部分出现了从科技股轮动到顺周期标的的情况。不过，机构整体仍看好科技成长股的前景。　　值得一提的是，特斯拉的第二大股东、英国老牌资管柏基投资（Ballie Gifford）认为，未来，究竟是选成长股还是价值股不再是正确的问题，更应该问的是，如何找到重要的前5%的头部赢家公司。　　新冠肺炎疫情后，更多的经济和社会活动已转移到互联网上。过去的习惯已被打破，人们迅速适应了新的范式。投资者可能已意识到，股票指数中的很大一部分成份股将被淘汰，新范式很大一部分与极少数公司相关。均值回归已不再的大背景下，疫情走向、经济复苏和政策变化将共同决定市场在未来走向何方。\n\n扫二维码 3分钟开户 紧抓创业板火爆行情\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨亚龙","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":951562925,"gmtCreate":1590984278367,"gmtModify":1704193948967,"author":{"id":"3553121934996608","authorId":"3553121934996608","name":"顺风而行","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c9efa128501880424968b027a03136e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553121934996608","authorIdStr":"3553121934996608"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>上五上五！","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" 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