下周减肥大胃蔡的个人主页 - 老虎社区

下周减肥大胃蔡

下周减肥大胃蔡

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：广东

21关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

下周减肥大胃蔡

12-18 08:44

学习了

英伟达在跌什么

下周减肥大胃蔡

12-06

牛，短线高手

下周减肥大胃蔡

12-02

可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来

下周减肥大胃蔡

11-27

择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面

下周减肥大胃蔡

11-18

看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高

下周减肥大胃蔡

11-11

可以

下周减肥大胃蔡

11-07

相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长

下周减肥大胃蔡

11-05

川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子

下周减肥大胃蔡

10-28

希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控

下周减肥大胃蔡

10-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对

下周减肥大胃蔡

09-16

中秋佳节，祝愿 @郭二侠说财越来越好[财迷][财迷]

下周减肥大胃蔡

09-14

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 这就是买缅A的下场

下周减肥大胃蔡

09-07

苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸

下周减肥大胃蔡

09-06

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆

下周减肥大胃蔡

09-04

最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。

下周减肥大胃蔡

08-08

长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场

下周减肥大胃蔡

08-07

大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3551086163573612","uuid":"3551086163573612","gmtCreate":1587992140952,"gmtModify":1588004466212,"name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","pinyin":"xzjfdwcxiazhoujianfeidaweicai","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":21,"tweetSize":17,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":3,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.02","exceedPercentage":"80.96%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.07.31","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.02","exceedPercentage":"80.03%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"广东","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":9,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":382761508012056,"gmtCreate":1734482694981,"gmtModify":1734482696841,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习了","listText":"学习了","text":"学习了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382761508012056","repostId":"2492331910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2492331910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734481109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492331910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-18 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达在跌什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492331910","media":"信息平权","summary":"分析认为，英伟达GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货，4个月后GB300小批量，中间给GB200的时间有点短，而且芯片还“存在一堆小问题”。并且，英伟达正面临着ASIC等强有力的竞争对手，近期很多资金还在切高换底落袋为安，准备过圣诞……","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>1. 供应链</strong></p><p>先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，<strong>最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab19ffe4aa20366cbe1f70a987facf91\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d466eeb17f867ef7644c83cebed1369e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"235\"/></p><p>量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：<strong>GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。</strong>4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...</p><p>过去一个多月我们反复提到<strong>“存在一堆小问题</strong>”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX</strong>。同时我们也<strong>上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会</strong>，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照<strong>Buy&amp;sell模式</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的<strong>库存周期就越长.</strong>..因此NV<strong>总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩</strong>，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...</p><p><strong>2.叙事对手</strong></p><p>相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：<strong>1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多</strong>。</p><p>大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了<strong>ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。</strong>尤其是<strong>Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论</strong>”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢<strong>AVGO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>CEO</strong>出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天<strong>上传的大摩ASIC深度报告</strong>，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。</p><p>今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果<strong>未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。</strong>这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。</p><p><strong>3. 纯粹的垃圾时间</strong></p><p>就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。<strong>切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...</strong>是很多资金的选择。</p><p><strong>4. 下一个催化剂</strong></p><p>1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得<strong>边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC</strong>，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠<strong>“供给侧更牛逼”</strong>可能有点难。<strong>那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？</strong></p><p>能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。<strong>AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。</strong></p><p>NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达在跌什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达在跌什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-18 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd13d142ea44844b91b221ba6d12ed2","relate_stocks":{"LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0107464264.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL INNOVATION EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492331910","content_text":"1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓微软转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX。同时我们也上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照Buy&sell模式，英伟达卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的库存周期就越长...因此NV总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...2.叙事对手相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378734218019216,"gmtCreate":1733498558613,"gmtModify":1733498561893,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛，短线高手","listText":"牛，短线高手","text":"牛，短线高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378734218019216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377195823665408,"gmtCreate":1733113733996,"gmtModify":1733113736426,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","listText":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","text":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377195823665408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375522085777872,"gmtCreate":1732721881028,"gmtModify":1732721883182,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","listText":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","text":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375522085777872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372309323186480,"gmtCreate":1731935486212,"gmtModify":1731935490262,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","listText":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","text":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372309323186480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369822949876160,"gmtCreate":1731329497519,"gmtModify":1731329499100,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以","listText":"可以","text":"可以","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369822949876160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368406634709416,"gmtCreate":1730984508385,"gmtModify":1730984510910,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","listText":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","text":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368406634709416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367710736785648,"gmtCreate":1730813634425,"gmtModify":1730813636929,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","listText":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","text":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367710736785648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364992042483752,"gmtCreate":1730119402719,"gmtModify":1730119404882,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","listText":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","text":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364992042483752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580773010983111","authorId":"3580773010983111","name":"最嫩的韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f21323e924caf8f2d74e9b9bfa6ec993","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580773010983111","authorIdStr":"3580773010983111"},"content":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]","text":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]","html":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363134172918040,"gmtCreate":1729681085444,"gmtModify":1729681087153,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363134172918040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"硅谷铝合金虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d649e20ab5c95d7bc215d5ba7a259df3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"203105757513414","authorIdStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了","text":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了","html":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350056106684680,"gmtCreate":1726498576883,"gmtModify":1726498579414,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中秋佳节，祝愿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3516761709738529\"> @郭二侠说财 </a>越来越好[财迷][财迷]","listText":"中秋佳节，祝愿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3516761709738529\"> @郭二侠说财 </a>越来越好[财迷][财迷]","text":"中秋佳节，祝愿 @郭二侠说财 越来越好[财迷][财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350056106684680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349182714638536,"gmtCreate":1726279361307,"gmtModify":1726280016309,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> 这就是买缅A的下场","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> 这就是买缅A的下场","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 这就是买缅A的下场","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72511d04e09e71d5d74bc4736b71ddad","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349182714638536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346754972381528,"gmtCreate":1725686392496,"gmtModify":1725686395068,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","listText":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","text":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346754972381528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574720750802706","authorId":"3574720750802706","name":"Xzhouz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4412bd88c8ff752fb6d1ea8fddf1d07","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574720750802706","authorIdStr":"3574720750802706"},"content":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。","text":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。","html":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346463952445808,"gmtCreate":1725615245713,"gmtModify":1725615609177,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346463952445808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345578750853424,"gmtCreate":1725412050719,"gmtModify":1725413990694,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","listText":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","text":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345578750853424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336302714757528,"gmtCreate":1723091660272,"gmtModify":1723095527499,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","listText":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","text":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336302714757528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335781305205184,"gmtCreate":1723015710435,"gmtModify":1723015833482,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","listText":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","text":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335781305205184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":345578750853424,"gmtCreate":1725412050719,"gmtModify":1725413990694,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","listText":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","text":"最终会妥协，苹果不能失去中国市场，微信也不能失去苹果用户，不合作只会两败俱伤，但苹果的护城河已经松动了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345578750853424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363134172918040,"gmtCreate":1729681085444,"gmtModify":1729681087153,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉财报应该用是销量换利润，销量大增但利润微降，试问投资人阁下该如何应对","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363134172918040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"203105757513414","authorId":"203105757513414","name":"硅谷铝合金虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d649e20ab5c95d7bc215d5ba7a259df3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"203105757513414","authorIdStr":"203105757513414"},"content":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了","text":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了","html":"免息还在持续，利润率好不了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346754972381528,"gmtCreate":1725686392496,"gmtModify":1725686395068,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","listText":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","text":"苹果没有什么大的创新。做啥啥不成，ai还是用ipenai的，只能说沦为平庸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346754972381528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574720750802706","authorId":"3574720750802706","name":"Xzhouz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4412bd88c8ff752fb6d1ea8fddf1d07","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574720750802706","authorIdStr":"3574720750802706"},"content":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。","text":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。","html":"有用户粘性，有稳定的收入，我觉得就够厉害了。苹果用户基本上3年就会换新机，所以市占率到达顶峰以后，苹果仍有大量的（跟新）带来的利润。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367710736785648,"gmtCreate":1730813634425,"gmtModify":1730813636929,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","listText":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","text":"川普赢，懂王这次改变很多，还躲过了三次刺杀，天选之子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367710736785648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":364992042483752,"gmtCreate":1730119402719,"gmtModify":1730119404882,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","listText":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","text":"希望川普上，一个商人思路的对手比较可控","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364992042483752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580773010983111","authorId":"3580773010983111","name":"最嫩的韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f21323e924caf8f2d74e9b9bfa6ec993","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580773010983111","authorIdStr":"3580773010983111"},"content":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]","text":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]","html":"可控啥啊，当初就是懂王开启了贸易战，有多难受忘记了？好了伤疤忘了疼[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350056106684680,"gmtCreate":1726498576883,"gmtModify":1726498579414,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中秋佳节，祝愿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3516761709738529\"> @郭二侠说财 </a>越来越好[财迷][财迷]","listText":"中秋佳节，祝愿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3516761709738529\"> @郭二侠说财 </a>越来越好[财迷][财迷]","text":"中秋佳节，祝愿 @郭二侠说财 越来越好[财迷][财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350056106684680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382761508012056,"gmtCreate":1734482694981,"gmtModify":1734482696841,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习了","listText":"学习了","text":"学习了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382761508012056","repostId":"2492331910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2492331910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734481109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492331910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-18 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达在跌什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492331910","media":"信息平权","summary":"分析认为，英伟达GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货，4个月后GB300小批量，中间给GB200的时间有点短，而且芯片还“存在一堆小问题”。并且，英伟达正面临着ASIC等强有力的竞争对手，近期很多资金还在切高换底落袋为安，准备过圣诞……","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>1. 供应链</strong></p><p>先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，<strong>最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab19ffe4aa20366cbe1f70a987facf91\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d466eeb17f867ef7644c83cebed1369e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"235\"/></p><p>量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：<strong>GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。</strong>4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...</p><p>过去一个多月我们反复提到<strong>“存在一堆小问题</strong>”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX</strong>。同时我们也<strong>上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会</strong>，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照<strong>Buy&amp;sell模式</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的<strong>库存周期就越长.</strong>..因此NV<strong>总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩</strong>，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...</p><p><strong>2.叙事对手</strong></p><p>相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：<strong>1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多</strong>。</p><p>大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了<strong>ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。</strong>尤其是<strong>Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论</strong>”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢<strong>AVGO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>CEO</strong>出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天<strong>上传的大摩ASIC深度报告</strong>，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。</p><p>今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果<strong>未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。</strong>这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。</p><p><strong>3. 纯粹的垃圾时间</strong></p><p>就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。<strong>切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...</strong>是很多资金的选择。</p><p><strong>4. 下一个催化剂</strong></p><p>1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得<strong>边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC</strong>，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠<strong>“供给侧更牛逼”</strong>可能有点难。<strong>那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？</strong></p><p>能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。<strong>AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。</strong></p><p>NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达在跌什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达在跌什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-18 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd13d142ea44844b91b221ba6d12ed2","relate_stocks":{"LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0107464264.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL INNOVATION EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492331910","content_text":"1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓微软转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX。同时我们也上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照Buy&sell模式，英伟达卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的库存周期就越长...因此NV总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...2.叙事对手相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378734218019216,"gmtCreate":1733498558613,"gmtModify":1733498561893,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛，短线高手","listText":"牛，短线高手","text":"牛，短线高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378734218019216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377195823665408,"gmtCreate":1733113733996,"gmtModify":1733113736426,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","listText":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","text":"可以，估计是高波动性，但懂王会不惜代价把股市拉起来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377195823665408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375522085777872,"gmtCreate":1732721881028,"gmtModify":1732721883182,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","listText":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","text":"择偶有共同的价值观太重要了，远胜于外貌，金钱方面","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375522085777872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372309323186480,"gmtCreate":1731935486212,"gmtModify":1731935490262,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","listText":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","text":"看跌哦，新产品出问题，预期太高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372309323186480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369822949876160,"gmtCreate":1731329497519,"gmtModify":1731329499100,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可以","listText":"可以","text":"可以","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369822949876160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368406634709416,"gmtCreate":1730984508385,"gmtModify":1730984510910,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","listText":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","text":"相信巴菲特，但是兑现的时间可能会更长","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368406634709416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349182714638536,"gmtCreate":1726279361307,"gmtModify":1726280016309,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> 这就是买缅A的下场","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> 这就是买缅A的下场","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 这就是买缅A的下场","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72511d04e09e71d5d74bc4736b71ddad","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349182714638536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346463952445808,"gmtCreate":1725615245713,"gmtModify":1725615609177,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 垃圾最终应该进垃圾堆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346463952445808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336302714757528,"gmtCreate":1723091660272,"gmtModify":1723095527499,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","listText":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","text":"长期看有价值，但短期颓势明显，180以下逐步入场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336302714757528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335781305205184,"gmtCreate":1723015710435,"gmtModify":1723015833482,"author":{"id":"3551086163573612","authorId":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorIdStr":"3551086163573612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","listText":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","text":"大涨前卖掉了，试着再买又大亏，不敢玩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335781305205184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}