学习了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

下周减肥大胃蔡

学习了

英伟达在跌什么

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":382761508012056,"tweetId":"382761508012056","gmtCreate":1734482694981,"gmtModify":1734482696841,"author":{"id":3551086163573612,"idStr":"3551086163573612","authorId":3551086163573612,"authorIdStr":"3551086163573612","name":"下周减肥大胃蔡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828b601bbdaeb424b026eb363157fe5d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.02","exceedPercentage":"80.80%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>学习了</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>学习了</p></body></html>","text":"学习了","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382761508012056","repostId":2492331910,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2492331910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1734481109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2492331910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-18 08:18","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"英伟达在跌什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2492331910","media":"信息平权","summary":"分析认为，英伟达GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货，4个月后GB300小批量，中间给GB200的时间有点短，而且芯片还“存在一堆小问题”。并且，英伟达正面临着ASIC等强有力的竞争对手，近期很多资金还在切高换底落袋为安，准备过圣诞……","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>1. 供应链</strong></p><p>先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，<strong>最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ab19ffe4aa20366cbe1f70a987facf91\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d466eeb17f867ef7644c83cebed1369e\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"235\"/></p><p>量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：<strong>GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。</strong>4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...</p><p>过去一个多月我们反复提到<strong>“存在一堆小问题</strong>”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX</strong>。同时我们也<strong>上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会</strong>，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照<strong>Buy&amp;sell模式</strong>，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的<strong>库存周期就越长.</strong>..因此NV<strong>总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩</strong>，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...</p><p><strong>2.叙事对手</strong></p><p>相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：<strong>1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多</strong>。</p><p>大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了<strong>ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。</strong>尤其是<strong>Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论</strong>”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢<strong>AVGO<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>CEO</strong>出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天<strong>上传的大摩ASIC深度报告</strong>，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。</p><p>今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果<strong>未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。</strong>这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。</p><p><strong>3. 纯粹的垃圾时间</strong></p><p>就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>。<strong>切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...</strong>是很多资金的选择。</p><p><strong>4. 下一个催化剂</strong></p><p>1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得<strong>边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC</strong>，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠<strong>“供给侧更牛逼”</strong>可能有点难。<strong>那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？</strong></p><p>能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。<strong>AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。</strong></p><p>NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达在跌什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达在跌什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-18 08:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd13d142ea44844b91b221ba6d12ed2","relate_stocks":{"LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0107464264.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL INNOVATION EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","NVDS.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","3NVD.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","NVD":"GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","SNVD.UK":"LS -1X NVIDIA","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","NVDS":"Tradr 1.5X Short NVDA Daily ETF","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","NVIW.SI":"NVDA 3xLongSG261006","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","NVDU":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC MANAGED \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDX":"T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzkyMTU4OTE2OA==&mid=2247489853&idx=1&sn=e1c7b0f94de51aa6caf97451f7cff2a0&chksm=c0a1cf2648b2557989b7534a710573eb8020b09772c87aa271c893a3ab3eb985bf90f27a5613&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=1218OfzRZuGSIcb3KNICkxZl&sharer_shareinfo=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345&sharer_shareinfo_first=f00dcf9697bdb852dfb00f487524d345#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2492331910","content_text":"1. 供应链先贴一张台湾福邦投顾今天刚出的数字，最新调整后的GB200+GB300下单量，以及更新后的时间表。量就不解释了，大家自行理解。时间表和鸿海最新口径对齐了：GB要到农历新年2月后进入MP大规模量产出货。4个月后GB300小批量，就是我们之前说的，中间给GB200的时间有点短...过去一个多月我们反复提到“存在一堆小问题”，CoWoS-L、发热、铜缆、漏液等等，整体良率的爬升需要更多时间，且按照老黄原话“不同客户不同配置下，系统集成也需要时间”。请注意，这是前提原因，因此才会有后面所谓微软转单、NV建议客户先买B200 8卡HGX。同时我们也上传过CFO和IR最近的2次小会，口径是比较乐观的——“Blackwell在Q1依然有可能超过Hopper”，意味着GB200就算ramp up缓慢，但大部分压力其实都给了ODM（看看鸿海广达的股价吧...）因为按照Buy&sell模式，英伟达卖了计算板卡给鸿海就确认收入，而最棘手的机柜集成耗得越久，鸿海替NV扛的库存周期就越长...因此NV总归会想方设法出货chip交付合格业绩，但可想而知upside不会太大，何况H那边也有压力...2.叙事对手相比8月那次delay的最大变化是：1)出现一个对手叙事ASIC；2）scaling law叙事变化和推理叙事的加强；3）软件和应用、BTC、Tesla/Waymo，从资金角度都是对手叙事...尤其对于散户来说，选择更多。大部分都消化个七七八八了，除了ASIC叙事和推理叙事，在过去两周互相加强。尤其是Ilya的讲话和Satya的模型“贬值论”，让模型训练叙事向推理偏移，这时候恰逢AVGO博通CEO出来放卫星，ASIC之前就被AWS Tr2炒热的情绪被进一步点燃。继而有人开始质疑英伟达GPU的TCO（总拥有成本）...比如昨天上传的大摩ASIC深度报告，收到最多反馈的就是那张TCO对比图，活活把GPU给“算死了”。细节不展开，重点是这代表了目前市场一种“观点”，就是觉得ASIC还真有戏。今天产业群大佬们讨论最激烈的也是，ASIC到底对于CSP的价值是什么，以及如果未来重点是小模型推理，GB200还有如此大的优势与否。这都是最近非常有代表性的观点。3. 纯粹的垃圾时间就是到年底了，无论散户、ETF还是机构，都在平衡和调仓，看看最近的微软苹果尤其是谷歌。切高换底落袋为安，然后去过圣诞...是很多资金的选择。4. 下一个催化剂1月CES上老黄的讲话期待不要太高，CES本就是消费电子展。2月底业绩也不用期待了，因为只看Q4 buffer不大。然后就是3月GTC，看看Rubin能展开些什么。但个人觉得边际“惊喜”不会大于上一次GTC，那时训练为主、供给侧叙事为主，NVL72的横空出世简直是跨时代的绝杀。现在单纯靠“供给侧更牛逼”可能有点难。那NV更应该期待的是什么呢？能挪动3万亿的NV，只能是一个新的“算力叙事”，一个进一步打开算力想象力的叙事，就是Agent或任何super app。这早晚会发生，时间问题。o1开了个头，OpenAI 12连发的最后可能开第二个头，不知道哪里还会冒出其他东西。老黄曾经说过当全世界每个实体都在7*24小时跑推理的时候，AI就真的成功了。如果这算终极目标，那的确算力还有很长的路可以走，NV也是。ASIC or GPU、软件or硬件，只是这个大叙事下的小叙事。AI已经停不下来了，人类以后也离不开算力了。NV咋办呢？短期压力是有的，就是跌到什么价格抄底的问题，欢迎来加入讨论。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/382761508012056"}