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Skyline35
2021-11-29
$苹果(AAPL)$
告诉你们下一个利空吧……美国确诊新型变种,疫苗无效……市场直接吓崩[开心] [开心]
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$
Skyline35
2022-06-06
$AMZN 20220617 150.0 CALL$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
[开心] 搞笑
Skyline35
05-01
$SPXW 20240430 5075.0 PUT$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
妥妥的17倍
Skyline35
2021-11-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
拉尾盘,做K线,诱多。。。
Skyline35
2022-05-27
$TSLA 20220527 700.0 CALL$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
目标价?[开心]
Skyline35
2022-01-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
开盘必跌,PUT
[开心]
[财迷]
Skyline35
2021-12-04
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
简单说,美股躺着赚钱的时期已经彻底结束了,接下来做多做空都很容易被打脸,个股都会严重分化,乱世之中,建议小散们撤离吧,虽然你们肯定不会听👂[开心]
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
Skyline35
2022-01-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
还有啥说的,抄底啊!!!
[开心]
[财迷]
Skyline35
2022-01-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
马上暴跌,大家准备好了[开心] 然后暴涨。。。。。😂华尔街小把戏
$英伟达(NVDA)$
Skyline35
2022-02-03
[开心]
[开心]
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$
$Meta Platforms(FB)$
FB暴跌它暴涨。。。知道民心所向了吧。。
Skyline35
2022-03-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
乌克兰申请加入欧盟,和谈已经不可能了……快跑!!
Skyline35
2022-01-28
$AMD(AMD)$
AMD的财报很可能要爆雷!!大家小心!这次故意放出利好,杀跌,说明基金要急着出货跑路。。
[开心]
[开心]
[开心]
Skyline35
2021-11-26
$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$
敢抄底吗? [惊讶]
Skyline35
2022-02-04
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
今天就PUT你!
[开心]
Skyline35
2021-12-29
就算特斯拉的业务快速增长10年,它的股价也不应该涨,因为它已经透支了。
Could Tesla Stock Soar to $1,800?
Skyline35
2021-12-02
$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$
开始启动了。。。。[开心]
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
Skyline35
2021-11-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
错过做空特斯拉,没关系,还有
$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$
,看你还能撑多久。。。😂
Skyline35
2020-11-20
反垄断?谁说要反垄断了?现在的问题是谁来垄断的问题,不是要不要垄断的问题。
百年反垄断,三次大浪潮
Skyline35
2022-02-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
抄底,坚决抄底,才是真正的强者!!
[开心]
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$AMD(AMD)$
Skyline35
2022-01-11
$AMD(AMD)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
今天不要轻举妄动。。
[财迷]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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妥妥的17倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2e549ef921eb62346b879c61265f991","width":"927","height":"1599"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301112504356976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20722186463466","authorId":"20722186463466","name":"爱发红包的虎妞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acf27be178fbc21279d1959ce5bec4e7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"20722186463466","authorIdStr":"20722186463466"},"content":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014","text":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014","html":"老师您好,可以加虎妞微信聊聊投资吗?微信:itiger2014"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":662157242,"gmtCreate":1666278745386,"gmtModify":1666278747658,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$跌回700指日可待[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684964418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684003747,"gmtCreate":1659967499390,"gmtModify":1659967499390,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>明显借利好出货,不过前高,空空空put[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>明显借利好出货,不过前高,空空空put[开心] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$明显借利好出货,不过前高,空空空put[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684003747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685595371,"gmtCreate":1659702258797,"gmtModify":1659702258797,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>非农数据一出,肯定是先涨后跌。[得意] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>非农数据一出,肯定是先涨后跌。[得意] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$非农数据一出,肯定是先涨后跌。[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685595371","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617563784,"gmtCreate":1654510567149,"gmtModify":1704859572635,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20220617 150.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20220617 150.0 CALL$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>[开心] 搞笑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20220617 150.0 CALL\">$AMZN 20220617 150.0 CALL$</a><a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>乌克兰申请加入欧盟,和谈已经不可能了……快跑!!","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$乌克兰申请加入欧盟,和谈已经不可能了……快跑!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636472669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485324447450835","authorId":"3485324447450835","name":"maxq","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3485324447450835","authorIdStr":"3485324447450835"},"content":"乌俄吸引了环保组织的注意力,环保组织消停了!","text":"乌俄吸引了环保组织的注意力,环保组织消停了!","html":"乌俄吸引了环保组织的注意力,环保组织消停了!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639285453,"gmtCreate":1643304740507,"gmtModify":1643304740507,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>AMD的财报很可能要爆雷!!大家小心!这次故意放出利好,杀跌,说明基金要急着出货跑路。。<a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>AMD的财报很可能要爆雷!!大家小心!这次故意放出利好,杀跌,说明基金要急着出货跑路。。<a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","text":"$AMD(AMD)$AMD的财报很可能要爆雷!!大家小心!这次故意放出利好,杀跌,说明基金要急着出货跑路。。[开心] [开心] [开心] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639285453","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574152978639133","authorId":"3574152978639133","name":"StevenZZ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03189b5335478aadf57b390d0004c374","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574152978639133","authorIdStr":"3574152978639133"},"content":"看看Tesla吧,这么好的财报不是一样[微笑] ","text":"看看Tesla吧,这么好的财报不是一样[微笑] ","html":"看看Tesla吧,这么好的财报不是一样[微笑] "}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877612937,"gmtCreate":1637923480018,"gmtModify":1637923480018,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a>敢抄底吗? [惊讶]","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a>敢抄底吗? [惊讶]","text":"$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$敢抄底吗? [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877612937","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633631718,"gmtCreate":1643984440087,"gmtModify":1643984440087,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>今天就PUT你!<a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>今天就PUT你!<a href=\"\">[开心] </a>","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$今天就PUT你![开心] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633631718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692092800,"gmtCreate":1640788532743,"gmtModify":1640788532743,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就算特斯拉的业务快速增长10年,它的股价也不应该涨,因为它已经透支了。","listText":"就算特斯拉的业务快速增长10年,它的股价也不应该涨,因为它已经透支了。","text":"就算特斯拉的业务快速增长10年,它的股价也不应该涨,因为它已经透支了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692092800","repostId":"2195457559","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2195457559","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1640786895,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2195457559?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Could Tesla Stock Soar to $1,800?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195457559","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The growth stock skyrocketed in 2021. Can it surge even higher in 2022?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Wedbush</b> analyst Dan Ives released a bullish note on <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock on Tuesday morning. In commentary to support his 12-month price target of $1,400 for the company's shares, he said there are several catalysts that could drive the growth stock significantly higher next year. Highlighting just how well the analyst thinks things could go for the company in a best-case scenario, his most bullish case for the stock calls for an enormous 12-month price target of $1,800, representing about 65% upside from where the stock is trading today.</p><p>The analyst's optimism for the stock is impressive -- especially considering that the stock is already on a roll. In 2021, Tesla shares have risen a total of 55%. Furthermore, even the analyst's more cautious 12-month price target of $1,400 translates to 28% upside from here.</p><p>Here's a look at why the analyst is so upbeat about Tesla shares -- and why he could be onto something.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9e9a03e688a635e7ee0852834671d3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Model Y. Image source: Tesla.https://www.tesla.com/tesla-gallery</span></p><h2>Major catalysts for Tesla stock</h2><p>In Ives' note to investors this week, he cited several major catalysts that could drive Tesla shares higher, including sales momentum in China, margin expansion, and new factories coming online.</p><p>One of the biggest drivers for Tesla's growth recently has been the China market. In 2020, for instance, revenue from Tesla products (mainly vehicle deliveries) in the important market was approximately $6.7 billion -- more than doubling from about $3.0 billion in 2019 and less than $1.8 billion in 2018.</p><p>Highlighting how important the market has become for Tesla, its sales in China accounted for 21% of its total revenue in 2020. In 2021, this percentage should swell even more as Tesla has been ramping up production at its factory in China. Looking to 2022, Ives predicts that deliveries in the market could grow to represent 40% of total deliveries.</p><p>Looking beyond China, Ives thinks the electric car company's new factories in Germany and Texas will also drive sharp sales growth. Tesla currently has demand that outstrips supply, and new production capacity from these factories will help alleviate production constraints and help production and sales soar. Specifically, the analyst thinks Tesla's annualized production run rate can increase from about <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million units today to two million units by the end of 2022.</p><p>Combining economies of scale benefits with the ramp-up of the higher-priced Model S and Model X production and sales since the two vehicles' recent design overhauls, Wedbush also expects the company's gross profit margin profile to improve significantly over the next year to year and a half. Growing sales of higher-priced, higher-margin vehicles could be key to this margin expansion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e769c2d92397bfa34e2a502c09a26b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla factory. Image source: The Motley Fool.</span></p><h2>Tesla's spectacular business execution could continue</h2><p>To investors who don't follow Tesla closely, it may seem like a stretch for the company to increase production capacity so significantly over the next year as it capitalizes on its enormous demand. But Tesla has a history of impressive execution -- particularly when it comes to growing its production capacity. Indeed, Tesla's factory in China ramped up production significantly faster than its factory in California did, and management has hinted that production may ramp up even faster at its newest factories in Germany and Texas.</p><p>While investors shouldn't count on Tesla stock soaring to $1,800 or $1,400 within the next year, Ives does bring up some good points that make a compelling case for owning this stock over the long haul.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Could Tesla Stock Soar to $1,800?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCould Tesla Stock Soar to $1,800?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-29 22:08 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/could-tesla-stock-soar-to-1800/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives released a bullish note on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock on Tuesday morning. In commentary to support his 12-month price target of $1,400 for the company's shares, he said there ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/could-tesla-stock-soar-to-1800/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/29/could-tesla-stock-soar-to-1800/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195457559","content_text":"Wedbush analyst Dan Ives released a bullish note on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock on Tuesday morning. In commentary to support his 12-month price target of $1,400 for the company's shares, he said there are several catalysts that could drive the growth stock significantly higher next year. Highlighting just how well the analyst thinks things could go for the company in a best-case scenario, his most bullish case for the stock calls for an enormous 12-month price target of $1,800, representing about 65% upside from where the stock is trading today.The analyst's optimism for the stock is impressive -- especially considering that the stock is already on a roll. In 2021, Tesla shares have risen a total of 55%. Furthermore, even the analyst's more cautious 12-month price target of $1,400 translates to 28% upside from here.Here's a look at why the analyst is so upbeat about Tesla shares -- and why he could be onto something.Model Y. Image source: Tesla.https://www.tesla.com/tesla-galleryMajor catalysts for Tesla stockIn Ives' note to investors this week, he cited several major catalysts that could drive Tesla shares higher, including sales momentum in China, margin expansion, and new factories coming online.One of the biggest drivers for Tesla's growth recently has been the China market. In 2020, for instance, revenue from Tesla products (mainly vehicle deliveries) in the important market was approximately $6.7 billion -- more than doubling from about $3.0 billion in 2019 and less than $1.8 billion in 2018.Highlighting how important the market has become for Tesla, its sales in China accounted for 21% of its total revenue in 2020. In 2021, this percentage should swell even more as Tesla has been ramping up production at its factory in China. Looking to 2022, Ives predicts that deliveries in the market could grow to represent 40% of total deliveries.Looking beyond China, Ives thinks the electric car company's new factories in Germany and Texas will also drive sharp sales growth. Tesla currently has demand that outstrips supply, and new production capacity from these factories will help alleviate production constraints and help production and sales soar. Specifically, the analyst thinks Tesla's annualized production run rate can increase from about one million units today to two million units by the end of 2022.Combining economies of scale benefits with the ramp-up of the higher-priced Model S and Model X production and sales since the two vehicles' recent design overhauls, Wedbush also expects the company's gross profit margin profile to improve significantly over the next year to year and a half. Growing sales of higher-priced, higher-margin vehicles could be key to this margin expansion.Tesla factory. Image source: The Motley Fool.Tesla's spectacular business execution could continueTo investors who don't follow Tesla closely, it may seem like a stretch for the company to increase production capacity so significantly over the next year as it capitalizes on its enormous demand. But Tesla has a history of impressive execution -- particularly when it comes to growing its production capacity. Indeed, Tesla's factory in China ramped up production significantly faster than its factory in California did, and management has hinted that production may ramp up even faster at its newest factories in Germany and Texas.While investors shouldn't count on Tesla stock soaring to $1,800 or $1,400 within the next year, Ives does bring up some good points that make a compelling case for owning this stock over the long haul.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3563357612600728","authorId":"3563357612600728","name":"Johnsonk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6ab73351a61f0c3e887a3cffcf2aa2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563357612600728","authorIdStr":"3563357612600728"},"content":"没有泡沫,炒股炒什么?炒工厂有多少台机器人?多少个抓手?办公楼多少个厕所?多少台打印机?IT多少台电脑?这些东西加起来多少钱么?","text":"没有泡沫,炒股炒什么?炒工厂有多少台机器人?多少个抓手?办公楼多少个厕所?多少台打印机?IT多少台电脑?这些东西加起来多少钱么?","html":"没有泡沫,炒股炒什么?炒工厂有多少台机器人?多少个抓手?办公楼多少个厕所?多少台打印机?IT多少台电脑?这些东西加起来多少钱么?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603814655,"gmtCreate":1638398276667,"gmtModify":1638398276667,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>开始启动了。。。。[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DWAC\">$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$</a>开始启动了。。。。[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>","text":"$Digital World Acquisition Corp(DWAC)$开始启动了。。。。[开心] $英伟达(NVDA)$$苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603814655","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874879887,"gmtCreate":1637763070103,"gmtModify":1637763070103,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 错过做空特斯拉,没关系,还有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a> ,看你还能撑多久。。。😂","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 错过做空特斯拉,没关系,还有<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LCID\">$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$</a> ,看你还能撑多久。。。😂","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 错过做空特斯拉,没关系,还有$Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ ,看你还能撑多久。。。😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874879887","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390454832,"gmtCreate":1605846790726,"gmtModify":1703840052618,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"反垄断?谁说要反垄断了?现在的问题是谁来垄断的问题,不是要不要垄断的问题。","listText":"反垄断?谁说要反垄断了?现在的问题是谁来垄断的问题,不是要不要垄断的问题。","text":"反垄断?谁说要反垄断了?现在的问题是谁来垄断的问题,不是要不要垄断的问题。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390454832","repostId":"1198787032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198787032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605840284,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198787032?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-20 10:44","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"百年反垄断,三次大浪潮","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198787032","media":"新金融洛书","summary":"01\n1863年,约翰·洛克菲勒23岁,做了几年簿记员和农产品的他,将生意场转向了石油提炼,和化学家Samuel Andrews一起在美国俄亥俄州的克利夫兰建立了炼油厂。洛克菲勒不愧头脑精明,因为这时","content":"<p><b>01</b></p>\n<p>1863年,约翰·洛克菲勒23岁,做了几年簿记员和农产品的他,将生意场转向了石油提炼,和化学家Samuel Andrews一起在美国俄亥俄州的克利夫兰建立了炼油厂。洛克菲勒不愧头脑精明,因为这时恰逢第二次工业革命开始,对石油的需求达到了空前旺盛的巅峰。</p>\n<p>这一年,是40岁的约翰·谢尔曼(John Sherman)和亚伯拉罕·林肯总统成为好朋友的第三个年头,也是他成为美国众议院议员的第三年。</p>\n<p>洛克菲勒的石油事业一路开挂,1870年成立了埃克森-美孚石油公司,往后的数十年间,洛克菲勒讨伐兼并,创建了第一个联合事业“托拉斯(trust)”——所谓托拉斯就是生产同类商品的企业合并组成的垄断组织。洛克菲勒合并了40多家厂商,一度垄断了美国80%的炼油工业和90%的油管生意。</p>\n<p>几乎同一时期,从苏格兰移民到美国的亚历山大·贝尔,在1876年、他28岁那年发明了世界上第一台可用的电话机。第二年,他就成立了贝尔电话公司,此后百年,它常以<b>AT&T</b>的名称出现在世人眼里。</p>\n<p>这正是马克·吐温笔下的“镀金时代”(the Gilded Age),投机风行、政治腐败。1879年之后,石油托拉斯、威士忌托拉斯以及美国国际电话电报托拉斯等相继出现。</p>\n<p>洛克菲勒那些为后世美誉赞叹的“文治武功”,也恰恰发生在这时,吞并、联合操纵、逼占……他用尽各种手段打击对手,达到垄断目的,这一时期被称为<b>“克利夫兰大屠杀”</b>。它的形式主要是两方面,一面是独占市场,一面剥削劳工与农民的合法利益。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8103b59fb18169762fc794ba72ab61b\" tg-width=\"227\" tg-height=\"300\"><span>图:1928年,约翰·洛克菲勒登上时代周刊封面</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>在各种“托拉斯”的压迫下,19世纪末的美国劳工反抗运动不断。就连约翰·谢尔曼也看不下去了,他在国会上疾呼:<b>“如果我们不屈服于一个皇帝,我们就不应该屈服于一个拥有阻止竞争能力和定价权的贸易独裁者。”</b>并提出了反托拉斯法案,几年后,他成为了美国国务卿。</p>\n<p>1890年,《谢尔曼反托拉斯法》出台,但十数年里执行不力,出现了很多打压工会、偏袒大资本家的判决。以至于到到1904年,美国托拉斯剧增到318家工业,多数都是法案出台后成立的。但在1901年威廉·麦金莱总统被无政府主义者刺杀身亡、老罗斯福继任成为美国总统后,反垄断法案才猛地被压实。</p>\n<p>老罗斯福是个率性的人,他挥起反托拉斯大棒一顿猛打,接连解散了牛肉托拉斯、石油托拉斯和烟草托拉斯等,<b>人送外号“托拉斯爆破手”</b>。这段时间成了美国大企业第一段最惨烈的肢解历史。就在1911年,美国最高法判决标准石油公司垄断事实成立,洛克菲勒不得不将它拆分为约37家地区性石油公司。</p>\n<p>洛克菲勒肯定没想到,100年后,一个被称为<b>“数字石油”的东西——数据</b>被那些顶尖的互联网公司掌控,并让这些企业成为21世纪反垄断打击的对象。</p>\n<p><b>02</b></p>\n<p>1984年,那个28岁小伙贝尔在1876年创立的电话公司AT&T,已经当了通讯行业的世界老大100多年,占据美国电信市场的90%以上份额。</p>\n<p>这时正是里根政府。里根和老罗斯福一样坚决反垄断。他的政府反垄断的准则是,不重看规模,而注意企业有没有操纵定价和串通投标。20世纪初以来,AT&T的国际长途电话业务虽然由公司和政府协商确定价格,但价格基本任凭AT&T报送,3美元/每分钟的价格已经使用了80多年。</p>\n<p>里根政府还发现,AT&T控制了美国用户的本地电话网络,当其他长话公司试图进入用户家庭时,它绝不允许其它公司进入其本地电话网络,也不允许用户使用其它公司的通信设备。</p>\n<p>这种垄断的甜头,历史上AT&T品尝过很多回。</p>\n<p>AT&T是一个开局就满级,自带BGM出场的角色,而且通讯行业老大一当就是100多年。1894年之后的一段时间,美国电信市场上涌现了6000多家电话公司,但AT&T牢牢掌握着长途通话的控制权,坐看6000多家或倒闭、或被并购,风起云涌。</p>\n<p>AT&T的影响力之大,甚至让它成功化解了1913年和1949年两次针对它的反垄断行动。</p>\n<p><b>1984年,美国政府终于打赢了针对AT&T的长达十年之久的反垄断官司。</b>AT&T的本地电话业务被一分为八,设立八家小公司。AT&T仍然从事长途电话业务和通信设备制造。</p>\n<p>这一时期,美国政府还和计算机巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>打了十年的反垄断官司,到80年代初,双方最终以和解结束。IBM为此拆分了一些服务部门、公开了一些技术,并直接导致市场上出现了无数制造IBM PC兼容机企业的诞生。这一举动正是IBM走向衰落的原因之一。</p>\n<p>《浪潮之巅》的作者吴军,1997年正在AT&T的实验室实习。后来他在书中总结说,<b>反垄断没有让AT&T元气大伤,反而为它“修剪枝叶”,让它在接下来的十年里更加健康地成长壮大。而造成AT&T衰落的,是从自我拆分开始的。</b></p>\n<p>1995年,正处于业绩巅峰状态的AT&T拆分了它的电信设备制造部门,以获得更多业务和更大市值,成立了朗讯公司,并把两万人规模的贝尔实验室划给了朗讯,让通讯和电信设备制造互为犄角之势的AT&T失去了优势。后来朗讯又一分为二,将无线设备部门独立出去,</p>\n<p>2000年之后,拆分造成的双输结果让AT&T和朗讯都错失了移动通信和移动互联网的机会。AT&T和朗讯日子过的一天不如一天。2005年,21年前从AT&T被拆分出去8家公司之一的西南贝尔公司SBC,吞并了AT&T,并沿用了AT&T的名字。一年后,时日维艰的朗讯公司和阿尔卡特合并,再十年后的2016年,又被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">诺基亚</a>收购。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c518db20cab9c45746c0adc3afc3f5d8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\"><span>图:2005年,AT&T被SBC并购后沿用了AT&T的名称,但logo改为“at&t”</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>对AT&T反垄断的拆分之对错,经济界现在仍有巨大的争论,错误说的一方认为拆分阻碍了AT&T的业务创新,因为一个庞大的AT&T有更多资金与精力支持创新。正确论的一方观点是它阻止了大企业侵害美国的民主和消费者的权益。</p>\n<p>功过论不去计较,正如吴军总结的那样,历史上,害死大公司的往往不是反垄断,而是一次次技术革命时期的掉队,被新兴技术企业的降维打击。</p>\n<p><b>03</b></p>\n<p>就在AT&T走向穷途末路时的2004年,几个20岁左右的年轻人在哈佛大学的宿舍里,创办了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>。那时,Facebook是一个“挑战权威”的初创公司,当时的“权威”则是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、雅虎和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>等一众巨头,它一路高歌一路壮大。到2020年美国政府以反垄断之名调查它时,才猛地发现,这家当年的挑战者已经收购了63家公司,自己也成了<b>巨龙</b>。</p>\n<p>2019年,曾与马克·扎克伯格一起创办了Facebook的克里斯·休斯(Chris Hughes)离职后多年后,批评Facebook说,“扎克伯格是个好人。但令我感到愤怒的是,<b>他对增长的关注导致他为了点击而牺牲了安全和道德底线</b>”。</p>\n<p>克里斯2007年从工作了三年的Facebook离职后,大部分都在和老搭档马克·扎克伯格作对,他领导了很多针对Facebook的反抗运动。他反抗的主要是Facebook基于系统算法对人和政治的操控,以及基于数据的市场垄断行为。令克里斯气愤的是,“<b>马克·扎克伯格没有认真考虑新闻推送算法将如何改变我们的文化、影响选举、赋予民族主义领导人权力</b>。”</p>\n<p>2020年5月,克里斯在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>》上发表了长文,标题是“It’s Time to Break Up Facebook”(是时候拆分Facebook了)。克里斯认为Facebook的垄断体现在几个方面:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>使用统计数据上。大约70%的美国成年人使用社交媒体,其中绝大多数会使用Facebook产品。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Facebook估值是五万亿美元,占据了全球社交网络收入的80%以上。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li><p>复制对手的商业模式,用技术与庞大用户体量打压对手,在自身平台屏蔽竞争对手产品。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>一个多月前,美国众议院司法委员会历时16个月的调查,发布了一份长达449页的报告,发现Facebook、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、谷歌等公司,都有着利用“致命收购”打压对手、收取过高费用和迫使小企业签订“压迫合约”的垄断行为。</p>\n<p>调查数据显示,目前谷歌在美国搜索市场占有87%的份额,全世界份额超过92%。报告发现,谷歌通过数据盗用和自家优先两种办法确定其优势,通过从未经许可的第三方获取信息来改善搜索结果,从而维持其搜索垄断地位。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dcb8f162ad8c04f9fc8219e2544df11\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\"><span>图:Facebook市场占有率;来源:美国政府反垄断报告</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>Facebook和谷歌们赖以打压对手的工具,正是一百年前洛克菲勒想不到的“数字石油”——数据。美国政府的反垄断报告说,<b>这些公司利用数据优势,甚至以用户私密数据来获得市场情报,来识别潜在的竞争威胁,然后通过收购、山寨或直接消灭的方式来抹除竞争。</b></p>\n<p><b>04</b></p>\n<p>从20世纪初反垄断风暴开始,反垄断走过了一百多年。<b>如果说第一次反垄断浪潮针对的纯粹是大企业的托拉斯合众连横形态,第二次反垄断浪潮时,垄断的形态已经转变为技术的独裁与压制,反垄断的大棒接连打击了AT&T和IBM等公司。如今第三次反垄断血风腥雨,垄断的形式变成了数据与算法操控。</b></p>\n<p>2017年以后,有巨头出现的领域,再没出现过什么<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>崛起。在中国,搜索、打车出行、社交、电商、在线餐饮等领域,有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、美团、饿了么等统治着江湖,没有这些公司没涉足的地方,创业公司还能寻得一丝生机,比如虚拟货币交易所、P2P平台,而这种创业,却祸害了无数普通投资人。</p>\n<p>Facebook、谷歌、亚马逊在中国对应的公司正是腾讯、百度和阿里巴巴。只是百度家道中落,想竖起垄断的大旗也有心无力了。</p>\n<p>过去十年,阿里巴巴、腾讯支出了数千亿资金投资布局,投资/并购版图遍布世界各地。2006年后,在“前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>人”刘炽平加盟后的腾讯开始了投资热。2019年初,媒体统计腾讯孵化了122家独角兽。阿里巴巴方面,到2018年三季度,他们战略投资的资产价值则超过800亿美元。</p>\n<p>前几日,新财富杂志的一篇名为《收割者:腾讯阿里的20万亿生态圈》文章披露,通过近年5000亿-6000亿元规模的投资并购,腾讯与阿里巴巴分别构筑了10万亿市值的生态圈,5年间膨胀了10倍。相比之下,上海市地方政府控制的上市公司总市值为2.8万亿元;深圳300余家上市公司总市值11万亿元;A股总市值10万亿美元。腾讯与阿里的资本能量,甚至已能与一座一线城市比肩。</p>\n<p>在巨头阴影下的中国互联网产业,初创企业要么通过融资站队划清领地,要么死于打压和排挤,鲜明的例子是,前两年的共享出行市场,阿里巴巴携快的打车以战腾讯投资的滴滴打车;创企携巨头以排挤友商的打法在市场中也屡试不爽。更多的时候,这些巨头成为互联网行业“瓶颈”,一个初创企业无法突破的瓶颈。</p>\n<p>已经到了监管动手的时候了。就在今年双11前一天,中国的监管层召集了27家头部电商平台开会,会上不无担忧地说,在大数据与人工智能形成相互喂养关系的今天,算法很可能套牢消费者,使消费者成为“算法囚徒”。</p>\n<p>同一天,国家市场监管总局发布了《关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南(征求意见稿)》,共六章24条。一场互联网经济领域的反垄断行动已经山雨欲来。</p>\n<p><b>2020年以来,社会学正在成为一门显学,人们关心内卷、担忧算法。对反垄断的呼声正在呼应社会对大资本恐惧的思潮。</b>2017年影片《功夫道》里弹幕刷屏叫“马爸爸”的那帮人,2020年同样出现马云双11晚会视频的底下,这次他们喊的是“全世界无产者联合起来”。当初享受着花呗、借呗便利的我们,或许发现了它们正在引诱自己,无数的花呗、借呗们正将我们压得喘不过气。</p>","source":"lsy1575522951062","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n百年反垄断,三次大浪潮\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-20 10:44 北京时间 <a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OnepimjMo5MiXgnXGRtLAQ><strong>新金融洛书</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>01\n1863年,约翰·洛克菲勒23岁,做了几年簿记员和农产品的他,将生意场转向了石油提炼,和化学家Samuel Andrews一起在美国俄亥俄州的克利夫兰建立了炼油厂。洛克菲勒不愧头脑精明,因为这时恰逢第二次工业革命开始,对石油的需求达到了空前旺盛的巅峰。\n这一年,是40岁的约翰·谢尔曼(John Sherman)和亚伯拉罕·林肯总统成为好朋友的第三个年头,也是他成为美国众议院议员的第三年。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OnepimjMo5MiXgnXGRtLAQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89e1e00e7552fb4f29b8ec1c9a2554a","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚","GOOGL":"谷歌A","JD":"京东","00700":"腾讯控股","T":"美国电话电报","09618":"京东集团-SW","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌","BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OnepimjMo5MiXgnXGRtLAQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198787032","content_text":"01\n1863年,约翰·洛克菲勒23岁,做了几年簿记员和农产品的他,将生意场转向了石油提炼,和化学家Samuel Andrews一起在美国俄亥俄州的克利夫兰建立了炼油厂。洛克菲勒不愧头脑精明,因为这时恰逢第二次工业革命开始,对石油的需求达到了空前旺盛的巅峰。\n这一年,是40岁的约翰·谢尔曼(John Sherman)和亚伯拉罕·林肯总统成为好朋友的第三个年头,也是他成为美国众议院议员的第三年。\n洛克菲勒的石油事业一路开挂,1870年成立了埃克森-美孚石油公司,往后的数十年间,洛克菲勒讨伐兼并,创建了第一个联合事业“托拉斯(trust)”——所谓托拉斯就是生产同类商品的企业合并组成的垄断组织。洛克菲勒合并了40多家厂商,一度垄断了美国80%的炼油工业和90%的油管生意。\n几乎同一时期,从苏格兰移民到美国的亚历山大·贝尔,在1876年、他28岁那年发明了世界上第一台可用的电话机。第二年,他就成立了贝尔电话公司,此后百年,它常以AT&T的名称出现在世人眼里。\n这正是马克·吐温笔下的“镀金时代”(the Gilded Age),投机风行、政治腐败。1879年之后,石油托拉斯、威士忌托拉斯以及美国国际电话电报托拉斯等相继出现。\n洛克菲勒那些为后世美誉赞叹的“文治武功”,也恰恰发生在这时,吞并、联合操纵、逼占……他用尽各种手段打击对手,达到垄断目的,这一时期被称为“克利夫兰大屠杀”。它的形式主要是两方面,一面是独占市场,一面剥削劳工与农民的合法利益。\n图:1928年,约翰·洛克菲勒登上时代周刊封面\n\n在各种“托拉斯”的压迫下,19世纪末的美国劳工反抗运动不断。就连约翰·谢尔曼也看不下去了,他在国会上疾呼:“如果我们不屈服于一个皇帝,我们就不应该屈服于一个拥有阻止竞争能力和定价权的贸易独裁者。”并提出了反托拉斯法案,几年后,他成为了美国国务卿。\n1890年,《谢尔曼反托拉斯法》出台,但十数年里执行不力,出现了很多打压工会、偏袒大资本家的判决。以至于到到1904年,美国托拉斯剧增到318家工业,多数都是法案出台后成立的。但在1901年威廉·麦金莱总统被无政府主义者刺杀身亡、老罗斯福继任成为美国总统后,反垄断法案才猛地被压实。\n老罗斯福是个率性的人,他挥起反托拉斯大棒一顿猛打,接连解散了牛肉托拉斯、石油托拉斯和烟草托拉斯等,人送外号“托拉斯爆破手”。这段时间成了美国大企业第一段最惨烈的肢解历史。就在1911年,美国最高法判决标准石油公司垄断事实成立,洛克菲勒不得不将它拆分为约37家地区性石油公司。\n洛克菲勒肯定没想到,100年后,一个被称为“数字石油”的东西——数据被那些顶尖的互联网公司掌控,并让这些企业成为21世纪反垄断打击的对象。\n02\n1984年,那个28岁小伙贝尔在1876年创立的电话公司AT&T,已经当了通讯行业的世界老大100多年,占据美国电信市场的90%以上份额。\n这时正是里根政府。里根和老罗斯福一样坚决反垄断。他的政府反垄断的准则是,不重看规模,而注意企业有没有操纵定价和串通投标。20世纪初以来,AT&T的国际长途电话业务虽然由公司和政府协商确定价格,但价格基本任凭AT&T报送,3美元/每分钟的价格已经使用了80多年。\n里根政府还发现,AT&T控制了美国用户的本地电话网络,当其他长话公司试图进入用户家庭时,它绝不允许其它公司进入其本地电话网络,也不允许用户使用其它公司的通信设备。\n这种垄断的甜头,历史上AT&T品尝过很多回。\nAT&T是一个开局就满级,自带BGM出场的角色,而且通讯行业老大一当就是100多年。1894年之后的一段时间,美国电信市场上涌现了6000多家电话公司,但AT&T牢牢掌握着长途通话的控制权,坐看6000多家或倒闭、或被并购,风起云涌。\nAT&T的影响力之大,甚至让它成功化解了1913年和1949年两次针对它的反垄断行动。\n1984年,美国政府终于打赢了针对AT&T的长达十年之久的反垄断官司。AT&T的本地电话业务被一分为八,设立八家小公司。AT&T仍然从事长途电话业务和通信设备制造。\n这一时期,美国政府还和计算机巨头IBM打了十年的反垄断官司,到80年代初,双方最终以和解结束。IBM为此拆分了一些服务部门、公开了一些技术,并直接导致市场上出现了无数制造IBM PC兼容机企业的诞生。这一举动正是IBM走向衰落的原因之一。\n《浪潮之巅》的作者吴军,1997年正在AT&T的实验室实习。后来他在书中总结说,反垄断没有让AT&T元气大伤,反而为它“修剪枝叶”,让它在接下来的十年里更加健康地成长壮大。而造成AT&T衰落的,是从自我拆分开始的。\n1995年,正处于业绩巅峰状态的AT&T拆分了它的电信设备制造部门,以获得更多业务和更大市值,成立了朗讯公司,并把两万人规模的贝尔实验室划给了朗讯,让通讯和电信设备制造互为犄角之势的AT&T失去了优势。后来朗讯又一分为二,将无线设备部门独立出去,\n2000年之后,拆分造成的双输结果让AT&T和朗讯都错失了移动通信和移动互联网的机会。AT&T和朗讯日子过的一天不如一天。2005年,21年前从AT&T被拆分出去8家公司之一的西南贝尔公司SBC,吞并了AT&T,并沿用了AT&T的名字。一年后,时日维艰的朗讯公司和阿尔卡特合并,再十年后的2016年,又被诺基亚收购。\n图:2005年,AT&T被SBC并购后沿用了AT&T的名称,但logo改为“at&t”\n\n对AT&T反垄断的拆分之对错,经济界现在仍有巨大的争论,错误说的一方认为拆分阻碍了AT&T的业务创新,因为一个庞大的AT&T有更多资金与精力支持创新。正确论的一方观点是它阻止了大企业侵害美国的民主和消费者的权益。\n功过论不去计较,正如吴军总结的那样,历史上,害死大公司的往往不是反垄断,而是一次次技术革命时期的掉队,被新兴技术企业的降维打击。\n03\n就在AT&T走向穷途末路时的2004年,几个20岁左右的年轻人在哈佛大学的宿舍里,创办了Facebook。那时,Facebook是一个“挑战权威”的初创公司,当时的“权威”则是谷歌、雅虎和微软等一众巨头,它一路高歌一路壮大。到2020年美国政府以反垄断之名调查它时,才猛地发现,这家当年的挑战者已经收购了63家公司,自己也成了巨龙。\n2019年,曾与马克·扎克伯格一起创办了Facebook的克里斯·休斯(Chris Hughes)离职后多年后,批评Facebook说,“扎克伯格是个好人。但令我感到愤怒的是,他对增长的关注导致他为了点击而牺牲了安全和道德底线”。\n克里斯2007年从工作了三年的Facebook离职后,大部分都在和老搭档马克·扎克伯格作对,他领导了很多针对Facebook的反抗运动。他反抗的主要是Facebook基于系统算法对人和政治的操控,以及基于数据的市场垄断行为。令克里斯气愤的是,“马克·扎克伯格没有认真考虑新闻推送算法将如何改变我们的文化、影响选举、赋予民族主义领导人权力。”\n2020年5月,克里斯在《纽约时报》上发表了长文,标题是“It’s Time to Break Up Facebook”(是时候拆分Facebook了)。克里斯认为Facebook的垄断体现在几个方面:\n\n使用统计数据上。大约70%的美国成年人使用社交媒体,其中绝大多数会使用Facebook产品。\n\n\nFacebook估值是五万亿美元,占据了全球社交网络收入的80%以上。\n\n\n复制对手的商业模式,用技术与庞大用户体量打压对手,在自身平台屏蔽竞争对手产品。\n\n一个多月前,美国众议院司法委员会历时16个月的调查,发布了一份长达449页的报告,发现Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、谷歌等公司,都有着利用“致命收购”打压对手、收取过高费用和迫使小企业签订“压迫合约”的垄断行为。\n调查数据显示,目前谷歌在美国搜索市场占有87%的份额,全世界份额超过92%。报告发现,谷歌通过数据盗用和自家优先两种办法确定其优势,通过从未经许可的第三方获取信息来改善搜索结果,从而维持其搜索垄断地位。\n图:Facebook市场占有率;来源:美国政府反垄断报告\n\nFacebook和谷歌们赖以打压对手的工具,正是一百年前洛克菲勒想不到的“数字石油”——数据。美国政府的反垄断报告说,这些公司利用数据优势,甚至以用户私密数据来获得市场情报,来识别潜在的竞争威胁,然后通过收购、山寨或直接消灭的方式来抹除竞争。\n04\n从20世纪初反垄断风暴开始,反垄断走过了一百多年。如果说第一次反垄断浪潮针对的纯粹是大企业的托拉斯合众连横形态,第二次反垄断浪潮时,垄断的形态已经转变为技术的独裁与压制,反垄断的大棒接连打击了AT&T和IBM等公司。如今第三次反垄断血风腥雨,垄断的形式变成了数据与算法操控。\n2017年以后,有巨头出现的领域,再没出现过什么创业公司崛起。在中国,搜索、打车出行、社交、电商、在线餐饮等领域,有百度、滴滴、腾讯、京东、阿里巴巴、美团、饿了么等统治着江湖,没有这些公司没涉足的地方,创业公司还能寻得一丝生机,比如虚拟货币交易所、P2P平台,而这种创业,却祸害了无数普通投资人。\nFacebook、谷歌、亚马逊在中国对应的公司正是腾讯、百度和阿里巴巴。只是百度家道中落,想竖起垄断的大旗也有心无力了。\n过去十年,阿里巴巴、腾讯支出了数千亿资金投资布局,投资/并购版图遍布世界各地。2006年后,在“前高盛人”刘炽平加盟后的腾讯开始了投资热。2019年初,媒体统计腾讯孵化了122家独角兽。阿里巴巴方面,到2018年三季度,他们战略投资的资产价值则超过800亿美元。\n前几日,新财富杂志的一篇名为《收割者:腾讯阿里的20万亿生态圈》文章披露,通过近年5000亿-6000亿元规模的投资并购,腾讯与阿里巴巴分别构筑了10万亿市值的生态圈,5年间膨胀了10倍。相比之下,上海市地方政府控制的上市公司总市值为2.8万亿元;深圳300余家上市公司总市值11万亿元;A股总市值10万亿美元。腾讯与阿里的资本能量,甚至已能与一座一线城市比肩。\n在巨头阴影下的中国互联网产业,初创企业要么通过融资站队划清领地,要么死于打压和排挤,鲜明的例子是,前两年的共享出行市场,阿里巴巴携快的打车以战腾讯投资的滴滴打车;创企携巨头以排挤友商的打法在市场中也屡试不爽。更多的时候,这些巨头成为互联网行业“瓶颈”,一个初创企业无法突破的瓶颈。\n已经到了监管动手的时候了。就在今年双11前一天,中国的监管层召集了27家头部电商平台开会,会上不无担忧地说,在大数据与人工智能形成相互喂养关系的今天,算法很可能套牢消费者,使消费者成为“算法囚徒”。\n同一天,国家市场监管总局发布了《关于平台经济领域的反垄断指南(征求意见稿)》,共六章24条。一场互联网经济领域的反垄断行动已经山雨欲来。\n2020年以来,社会学正在成为一门显学,人们关心内卷、担忧算法。对反垄断的呼声正在呼应社会对大资本恐惧的思潮。2017年影片《功夫道》里弹幕刷屏叫“马爸爸”的那帮人,2020年同样出现马云双11晚会视频的底下,这次他们喊的是“全世界无产者联合起来”。当初享受着花呗、借呗便利的我们,或许发现了它们正在引诱自己,无数的花呗、借呗们正将我们压得喘不过气。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541015803020623","authorId":"3541015803020623","name":"辉_0738","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318ccac02563405df5e91442695a43e3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3541015803020623","authorIdStr":"3541015803020623"},"content":"是啊,中国移动那么长时间,也没看见有谁出手反垄断打压,难道是互联网企业好欺负?","text":"是啊,中国移动那么长时间,也没看见有谁出手反垄断打压,难道是互联网企业好欺负?","html":"是啊,中国移动那么长时间,也没看见有谁出手反垄断打压,难道是互联网企业好欺负?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636101113,"gmtCreate":1645694352181,"gmtModify":1645694352181,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>抄底,坚决抄底,才是真正的强者!!<a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>抄底,坚决抄底,才是真正的强者!!<a href=\"\">[开心] </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$抄底,坚决抄底,才是真正的强者!![开心] $英伟达(NVDA)$$AMD(AMD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636101113","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"43898359627567","authorId":"43898359627567","name":"Malison","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4752e07c0662570d740a149accea3f","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"43898359627567","authorIdStr":"43898359627567"},"content":"同意,但是被这糟心的局势和市场磨到没有子弹….","text":"同意,但是被这糟心的局势和市场磨到没有子弹….","html":"同意,但是被这糟心的局势和市场磨到没有子弹…."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694867602,"gmtCreate":1641909184620,"gmtModify":1641909184620,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549994723467386","authorIdStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>今天不要轻举妄动。。<a href=\"\">[财迷] </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>今天不要轻举妄动。。<a href=\"\">[财迷] </a>","text":"$AMD(AMD)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$$英伟达(NVDA)$今天不要轻举妄动。。[财迷] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694867602","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}