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周末1314
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IP属地:北京
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周末1314
2020-04-22
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
这个股到底跟哪个指数?
周末1314
2020-07-14
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
能做空吗?我本来7.5想出了别的股做空的,但是怕不能做空!
周末1314
2020-04-27
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
47成本!
周末1314
2020-05-08
$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$
145的时候没买!
周末1314
2020-03-25
已经全仓买了三倍做空!
什么样的反弹?才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌
周末1314
2020-04-14
$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$
我去,又涨,我已经亏了一半多了!
周末1314
2020-07-29
$柯达(KODK)$
各位,能做空吗?
周末1314
2020-04-21
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
哎……
周末1314
2021-06-21
应该说,国内别想用比特币赚钱!!!国外想怎么赚怎么赚!!!
抱歉,原内容已删除
周末1314
2020-04-21
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
200的时候不敢买!
周末1314
2020-04-06
$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$
我就是要看空,我不信疫情这么发展,你还整天搞经济!你要想搞经济,疫情就控制不住,你要想控制疫情,牺牲经济就是必须经历的!
周末1314
2020-09-04
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
18.45已解盘!
周末1314
2020-05-06
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
涨的时候不够两倍,跌的时候倒是足足的!
周末1314
2020-04-21
$二倍做多彭博原油ETF(UCO)$
怎么卖不掉,眼睁睁看着又亏30个点!
周末1314
2020-10-07
$蔚来(NIO)$
坚决看多,买买买!
周末1314
2020-10-06
$蔚来(NIO)$
坚决看多!
周末1314
2023-12-11
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
完蛋了!
周末1314
2020-04-07
$道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares(SDOW)$
已经亏了50了!
周末1314
2020-10-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
买买买,怕个毛线🧶球球!
周末1314
2020-10-08
$蔚来(NIO)$
买买买,怕个毛线球球!!!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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完蛋了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251072682967320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556090761819571","authorId":"3556090761819571","name":"jrlx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3556090761819571","authorIdStr":"3556090761819571"},"content":"跌百分之2就完蛋了涨百分之2就起飞了…这心态玩校门口刮刮乐格局都不够[汗颜]","text":"跌百分之2就完蛋了涨百分之2就起飞了…这心态玩校门口刮刮乐格局都不够[汗颜]","html":"跌百分之2就完蛋了涨百分之2就起飞了…这心态玩校门口刮刮乐格局都不够[汗颜]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":251072089280744,"gmtCreate":1702305115220,"gmtModify":1702305116179,"author":{"id":"3547731702480623","authorId":"3547731702480623","name":"周末1314","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6633a99e3483056aaab6edd8154c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547731702480623","authorIdStr":"3547731702480623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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阿里巴巴完了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251072089280744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167459857,"gmtCreate":1624283022179,"gmtModify":1624283022179,"author":{"id":"3547731702480623","authorId":"3547731702480623","name":"周末1314","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6633a99e3483056aaab6edd8154c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547731702480623","authorIdStr":"3547731702480623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该说,国内别想用比特币赚钱!!!国外想怎么赚怎么赚!!!","listText":"应该说,国内别想用比特币赚钱!!!国外想怎么赚怎么赚!!!","text":"应该说,国内别想用比特币赚钱!!!国外想怎么赚怎么赚!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167459857","repostId":"2145704121","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167491668,"gmtCreate":1624280996254,"gmtModify":1624280996254,"author":{"id":"3547731702480623","authorId":"3547731702480623","name":"周末1314","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6633a99e3483056aaab6edd8154c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547731702480623","authorIdStr":"3547731702480623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赶紧买!!!","listText":"赶紧买!!!","text":"赶紧买!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167491668","repostId":"2145704121","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386861907,"gmtCreate":1613150494609,"gmtModify":1613150494609,"author":{"id":"3547731702480623","authorId":"3547731702480623","name":"周末1314","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6633a99e3483056aaab6edd8154c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547731702480623","authorIdStr":"3547731702480623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么样的反弹?才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133028950","media":"格隆汇","summary":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹,第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹,其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅!(11.3%)\n\n图片来源:Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲,美国确诊人数已经超过5万人,美国确诊人数的增速比股市","content":"<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹,第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹,其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅!(11.3%)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲,美国确诊人数已经超过5万人,美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多,周一3万,周二4万,今天周三已经5万,统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比,一边是疫情在迅猛抬头,另一边股市在暴力反弹,这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上,这波反弹有两个因素:</span></p>\n<p><span>(1)美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了,流动性紧缩的预期出清,市场不再担心钱不够,只要钱不够就找美联储去要;</span></p>\n<p><span>(2)对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的,</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓,下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情,我们看到,道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点(11月12日),</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后,</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹,从200点弹到300点附近,涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情,图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话,是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌,周四和周五两天底部震荡,累计跌幅也接近50%,这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势,数据来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言,由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大,随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年,直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点,距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市,图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同,货币环境也不一样了,那时候是金本位,现在是美元体系,不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度(30%左右)和中等时长(1到3个月)的反弹,是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶,2015年7-8月A股的下跌,也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>,那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始,到12月28日结束,后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家,未来几个月内,少则一个月,长则三个月,会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了,接下来的利空,要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后,股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹,美国政要和投行都爽了,开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说,疫情可能很快会见顶,经济可能会在“数周内”重启,而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨,都开心,没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了,按照其他国家的规律,疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间,而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%,如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话,</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分,只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此,大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况,图片来源:网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了,亚洲时间要开盘了,关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来,我对当前行情的看法是,反弹基本上已经成立,症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事,长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点,A股的反弹会比美股走得稳,但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本,之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话,熊市多暴涨,牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作,快进快出,把握好时间点,才不至于出大问题。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>什么样的反弹?才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么样的反弹?才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-25 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹,第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹,其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅!(11.3%)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲,美国确诊人数已经超过5万人,美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多,周一3万,周二4万,今天周三已经5万,统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比,一边是疫情在迅猛抬头,另一边股市在暴力反弹,这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上,这波反弹有两个因素:</span></p>\n<p><span>(1)美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了,流动性紧缩的预期出清,市场不再担心钱不够,只要钱不够就找美联储去要;</span></p>\n<p><span>(2)对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的,</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓,下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情,我们看到,道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点(11月12日),</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后,</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹,从200点弹到300点附近,涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情,图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话,是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌,周四和周五两天底部震荡,累计跌幅也接近50%,这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势,数据来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言,由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大,随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年,直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点,距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市,图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同,货币环境也不一样了,那时候是金本位,现在是美元体系,不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度(30%左右)和中等时长(1到3个月)的反弹,是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶,2015年7-8月A股的下跌,也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>,那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始,到12月28日结束,后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源:Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家,未来几个月内,少则一个月,长则三个月,会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了,接下来的利空,要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后,股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹,美国政要和投行都爽了,开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说,疫情可能很快会见顶,经济可能会在“数周内”重启,而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨,都开心,没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了,按照其他国家的规律,疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间,而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%,如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话,</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分,只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此,大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况,图片来源:网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了,亚洲时间要开盘了,关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来,我对当前行情的看法是,反弹基本上已经成立,症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事,长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点,A股的反弹会比美股走得稳,但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本,之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话,熊市多暴涨,牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作,快进快出,把握好时间点,才不至于出大问题。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133028950","content_text":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹,第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹,其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅!(11.3%)\n\n图片来源:Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲,美国确诊人数已经超过5万人,美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多,周一3万,周二4万,今天周三已经5万,统计还没结束。\n两者相比,一边是疫情在迅猛抬头,另一边股市在暴力反弹,这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。\n消息面上,这波反弹有两个因素:\n(1)美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了,流动性紧缩的预期出清,市场不再担心钱不够,只要钱不够就找美联储去要;\n(2)对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。\n但是更本质的,在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓,下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌到底的征兆。\n比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情,我们看到,道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点(11月12日),即总跌幅接近50%之后,出现过一波像模像样的反弹,从200点弹到300点附近,涨幅高达33%。\n\n1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情,图片来源:Wind\n如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话,是可以高度重合的。特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌,周四和周五两天底部震荡,累计跌幅也接近50%,这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。\n\n2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势,数据来源:Wind\n但1929年而言,由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大,随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年,直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点,距离高点381点跌去89%。\n\n1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市,图片来源:Wind\n今天的情形和1929年有很多不同,货币环境也不一样了,那时候是金本位,现在是美元体系,不可同日而语。但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度(30%左右)和中等时长(1到3个月)的反弹,是大概率事件。\n无独有偶,2015年7-8月A股的下跌,也是在大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹,那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始,到12月28日结束,后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。\n\n图片来源:Wind\n举这些例子是想告诉大家,未来几个月内,少则一个月,长则三个月,会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了,接下来的利空,要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后,股市才会再度下跌。\n隔夜这波反弹,美国政要和投行都爽了,开始煽风点火。例如大摩。\n摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说,疫情可能很快会见顶,经济可能会在“数周内”重启,而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。\n有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨,都开心,没人跟他计较。\n我们前几天的文章分析了,按照其他国家的规律,疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间,而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%,如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话,美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万。\n这里没有夸张成分,只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此,大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。\n\n海外疫情最新实况,图片来源:网易新闻\n时间不多了,亚洲时间要开盘了,关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。总结起来,我对当前行情的看法是,反弹基本上已经成立,症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事,长则三四个月也有可能。\n还有另一点,A股的反弹会比美股走得稳,但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本,之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。\n还是那句话,熊市多暴涨,牛市多暴跌。一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作,快进快出,把握好时间点,才不至于出大问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3529311486427807","authorId":"3529311486427807","name":"uuuyyynnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4eb6cfce55ab50400a7b428512f97531","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3529311486427807","authorIdStr":"3529311486427807"},"content":"啥时候都不能全仓,现金为王","text":"啥时候都不能全仓,现金为王","html":"啥时候都不能全仓,现金为王"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":928461564,"gmtCreate":1586871798358,"gmtModify":1704362318818,"author":{"id":"3547731702480623","authorId":"3547731702480623","name":"周末1314","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b6633a99e3483056aaab6edd8154c92","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547731702480623","authorIdStr":"3547731702480623"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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