自由引导我的个人主页 - 老虎社区

自由引导我

自由引导我

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IP属地：浙江

28关注

2粉丝

6主题

0勋章

自由引导我

2021-01-27

$RLX科技(RLX)$我开始慌了[生气]

自由引导我

2022-03-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$删了老虎，三年后见！88

自由引导我

2021-08-05

$RLX科技(RLX)$[喷血]

自由引导我

2021-02-02

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$基本面很好，市场情绪不高。。。

自由引导我

2021-01-12

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$奈飞怎么了？？？

自由引导我

2021-01-04

空仓的说是泡沫，满仓的说是革命....

抱歉，原内容已删除

自由引导我

2020-12-28

$GRAYSCALE BITCOIN CASH TR(BCHG)$比特币上2.6万美元了，怎么灰度反而大跌了？

自由引导我

2021-01-07

$3M(MMM)$为啥大跌[流泪]

自由引导我

2021-09-27

$探索传播(DISCA)$是不是没救了？

自由引导我

2020-10-30

$陆金所(LU)$会不会是下一个$宜人金科(YRD)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

自由引导我

2021-08-16

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$中概股会不会有退市风险[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

自由引导我

2021-03-10

美股涨、比特币涨，a股跌

抱歉，原内容已删除

自由引导我

2021-02-11

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$飞吧

自由引导我

2020-08-24

$Vanguard Health Care ETF(VHT)$为啥中国的医药股这么好而美国的医药股走势这么差？

自由引导我

2021-04-14

$探索传播(DISCA)$为什么跌这么多？

自由引导我

2021-02-18

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$这是被资本市场抛弃了吗？[流泪]

自由引导我

2021-01-27

$AMC院线(AMC)$大家都是怎么发现这只潜力股的？

自由引导我

2021-07-07

喊了多少年了

抱歉，原内容已删除

自由引导我

2021-03-29

多事之春

抱歉，原内容已删除

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DISCA\">$探索传播(DISCA)$</a>为什么跌这么多？","text":"$探索传播(DISCA)$为什么跌这么多？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345763841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355086147,"gmtCreate":1617014659689,"gmtModify":1617014659689,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547671095374567","idStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"多事之春","listText":"多事之春","text":"多事之春","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355086147","repostId":"1151864479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323682139,"gmtCreate":1615338187421,"gmtModify":1703487519797,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547671095374567","idStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股涨、比特币涨，a股跌","listText":"美股涨、比特币涨，a股跌","text":"美股涨、比特币涨，a股跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323682139","repostId":"1156457663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156457663","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615333782,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156457663?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 07:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：纳指反弹涨近4%，特斯拉飙升近20％","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156457663","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美国股市债市双双反弹！纳指大涨近4％，美债收益率回落；新能源汽车股集体大涨，特斯拉飙升近20％，蔚来大涨18%；再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%，两周狂飙450%；韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发","content":"<p>摘要：</p><blockquote>美国股市债市双双反弹！纳指大涨近4％，美债收益率回落；</blockquote><blockquote>新能源汽车股集体大涨，特斯拉飙升近20％，蔚来大涨18%；</blockquote><blockquote>再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%，两周狂飙450%；</blockquote><blockquote>韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美股全线收涨！纳指涨近4％ 特斯拉涨近20%</p><p>美股周二高开高走全线收涨，其中道指一度创下历史新高，但尾盘急剧跳水，纳指大涨近4%，因美债收益率下滑，美国参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的刺激计划。截至收盘，道指涨30.3点，报31832.74点，涨幅为0.1%；纳指涨464.66点，报13073.82点，涨幅为3.69%；标普500指数涨54.09点，报3875.44点，涨幅为1.42%。</p><p>2、中概股全线收涨：蔚来涨近17.44％ 拼多多涨超12％</p><p>中概股周二收盘集体大涨，其中有256只上涨，39只下跌。知名中概股中阿里巴巴涨4.96%；百度涨11.01%；京东涨4.59%；网易涨7.31%；新浪涨0.54%；拼多多涨12.19%；蔚来涨17.44%；小鹏汽车涨11.33%；理想汽车涨8.20%。</p><p>3、欧股周二全线收高 欧洲斯托克600指数创2020年2月以来新高</p><p>欧股周二收盘走高，投资者持续关注美债收益率和企业财报。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨3.16点，涨幅0.76%，报420.41，创2020年2月以来新高。其中公用事业股上涨2%，零售股上涨2.5%；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨57.03点，涨幅0.40%，报14437.94点。</p><p>4、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月份交割的黄金期货价格大幅上涨38.90美元，报收于每盎司1716.90美元，涨幅为2.3%，此前该合约在周一的交易中收盘下跌1.2%，按主力合约计算创下了自4月3日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>5、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月份交割的西德克萨斯轻质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌1.04美元，报收于每桶64.01美元，跌幅为1.6%。与此同时，伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所5月份交割的北海布伦特原油期货价格也下跌72美分，报收于每桶67.52美元，跌幅为1.1%。</p><p>6、比特币攀升至两周高点 Evercore上看75000美元</p><p>纽约时间下午1:02，比特币一度上涨5.7%，随后缩减一些涨幅，交易价格为53,747美元。第二大加密货币以太币上涨3.8%。Evercore ISI策略师Rich Ross在报告中写道，技术指标支持比特币走强，价格上看75,000美元。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118642080\" target=\"_blank\">美财政部拍卖580亿美元美债 三年期美债收益率短线下挫</a></p><p>美国财政部拍卖580亿美元三年期国债，得标利率0.355%，投标倍数2.69(前次为2.39)。三年期美债收益率短线下挫1.08个基点，最低触及0.3283%，日内整体波动幅度不足2.00个基点。</p><p>2、市场对美联储上调超额准备金利率与逆回购利率的预期开始降温</p><p>巴克莱、Wrightson ICAP和美国银行策略师此前都预测美联储可能最早需要在本月会议上调升两项关键利率--隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率(IOER)。而现在，他们都对此更加谨慎。</p><p>3、欧洲央行上周提高购债总额 从169亿欧元提高至182亿欧元</p><p>欧洲央行上周加大了紧急购债项下的债券购买规模。截至3月5日当周，欧洲央行通过紧急购债计划购买的债券总额为182亿欧元，超过前周的169亿欧元。【详细】</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118642236\" target=\"_blank\">美股新能源汽车股集体大涨 特斯拉股价飙升近20％</a></p><p>美国科技股周二在债券收益率下跌后上涨，特斯拉止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅，截至收盘，特斯拉股价大涨19.64%，股价涨逾110美元，报673.58美元，市值一夜暴增1061.58亿美元，重回6000亿美元上方，达6465亿美元。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1199086177\" target=\"_blank\">百度通过港交所上市聆讯</a></p><p>据港交所文件，百度通过港交所上市聆讯。此前有消息称，高盛和中信为其上市保荐团队，百度计划将出售5%-9%的股本，发行筹资规模至少在35亿美元以上。预计近期百度将开始接受投资者认筹，有望在3月正式完成在港二次上市。</p><p>3、消息称中国电动汽车三巨头寻求今年在港上市 筹资总额50亿美元</p><p>据报道，三位知情人士透露，在美上市的中国电动汽车生产商理想汽车(Li Auto Inc)、蔚来汽车(Nio Inc)和小鹏汽车(Xpeng Inc)计划今年年初在香港上市，此举旨在吸引更多的亚洲投资者。上述知情人士表示，这三家公司各自的目标都是出售至少5%的扩大后的香港股份。根据它们周一在纽约的市值，筹资总额可能在50亿美元左右。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118640802\" target=\"_blank\">再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%两周狂飙450%</a></p><p>周二，美国参议院对年初游戏驿站(GME)等美股散户抱团股大涨引发的交易混乱召开听证会，主角游戏驿站却再度狂飙，收盘涨近27%，上逼250美元，抹去2月来全部跌幅，自2月23日起两周内大涨近450%。</p><p>5、台积电回应拟在欧洲设厂：不排除任何可能性，但未有赴欧计划</p><p>此前有外媒称台积电除了在美国建设先进制程的的芯片生产厂外，还可能会在欧洲建设芯片生产工厂。此外，还有消息称欧盟将通过 2030 年高端芯片在欧洲达到 20% 在当地生产的计划，并有意向台积电等大厂招商，引发外界关注台积电欧洲布局。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118444876\" target=\"_blank\">自2019年以来，波音飞机月订购量首次超过订单取消量</a></p><p>波音公司在2月售出了82架飞机，而有51架飞机订单取消，这标志着自2019年11月以来，波音公司的飞机月度销售数量首次超过取消的订单数量。</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118564486\" target=\"_blank\">韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元</a></p><p>北京时间3月10日凌晨消息，据报道，韩国电商巨头Coupang今日在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中宣布，将IPO（首次公开招股）发行价区间上调至每股32美元至34美元之间。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118289726\" target=\"_blank\">汽车之家：香港二次上市发行价定为每股176.30港元</a></p><p>3月10日早间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>港交所公告，国际发售及香港公开发售的最终发售价均厘定为每股发售股份176.3港元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：纳指反弹涨近4%，特斯拉飙升近20％</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：纳指反弹涨近4%，特斯拉飙升近20％\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-10 07:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>摘要：</p><blockquote>美国股市债市双双反弹！纳指大涨近4％，美债收益率回落；</blockquote><blockquote>新能源汽车股集体大涨，特斯拉飙升近20％，蔚来大涨18%；</blockquote><blockquote>再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%，两周狂飙450%；</blockquote><blockquote>韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元。</blockquote><p>海外市场</p><p>1、美股全线收涨！纳指涨近4％ 特斯拉涨近20%</p><p>美股周二高开高走全线收涨，其中道指一度创下历史新高，但尾盘急剧跳水，纳指大涨近4%，因美债收益率下滑，美国参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的刺激计划。截至收盘，道指涨30.3点，报31832.74点，涨幅为0.1%；纳指涨464.66点，报13073.82点，涨幅为3.69%；标普500指数涨54.09点，报3875.44点，涨幅为1.42%。</p><p>2、中概股全线收涨：蔚来涨近17.44％ 拼多多涨超12％</p><p>中概股周二收盘集体大涨，其中有256只上涨，39只下跌。知名中概股中阿里巴巴涨4.96%；百度涨11.01%；京东涨4.59%；网易涨7.31%；新浪涨0.54%；拼多多涨12.19%；蔚来涨17.44%；小鹏汽车涨11.33%；理想汽车涨8.20%。</p><p>3、欧股周二全线收高 欧洲斯托克600指数创2020年2月以来新高</p><p>欧股周二收盘走高，投资者持续关注美债收益率和企业财报。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨3.16点，涨幅0.76%，报420.41，创2020年2月以来新高。其中公用事业股上涨2%，零售股上涨2.5%；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨57.03点，涨幅0.40%，报14437.94点。</p><p>4、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月份交割的黄金期货价格大幅上涨38.90美元，报收于每盎司1716.90美元，涨幅为2.3%，此前该合约在周一的交易中收盘下跌1.2%，按主力合约计算创下了自4月3日以来的最低收盘价。</p><p>5、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％</p><p>纽约商品交易所4月份交割的西德克萨斯轻质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌1.04美元，报收于每桶64.01美元，跌幅为1.6%。与此同时，伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所5月份交割的北海布伦特原油期货价格也下跌72美分，报收于每桶67.52美元，跌幅为1.1%。</p><p>6、比特币攀升至两周高点 Evercore上看75000美元</p><p>纽约时间下午1:02，比特币一度上涨5.7%，随后缩减一些涨幅，交易价格为53,747美元。第二大加密货币以太币上涨3.8%。Evercore ISI策略师Rich Ross在报告中写道，技术指标支持比特币走强，价格上看75,000美元。</p><p>国际宏观</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118642080\" target=\"_blank\">美财政部拍卖580亿美元美债 三年期美债收益率短线下挫</a></p><p>美国财政部拍卖580亿美元三年期国债，得标利率0.355%，投标倍数2.69(前次为2.39)。三年期美债收益率短线下挫1.08个基点，最低触及0.3283%，日内整体波动幅度不足2.00个基点。</p><p>2、市场对美联储上调超额准备金利率与逆回购利率的预期开始降温</p><p>巴克莱、Wrightson ICAP和美国银行策略师此前都预测美联储可能最早需要在本月会议上调升两项关键利率--隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率(IOER)。而现在，他们都对此更加谨慎。</p><p>3、欧洲央行上周提高购债总额 从169亿欧元提高至182亿欧元</p><p>欧洲央行上周加大了紧急购债项下的债券购买规模。截至3月5日当周，欧洲央行通过紧急购债计划购买的债券总额为182亿欧元，超过前周的169亿欧元。【详细】</p><p>公司新闻</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118642236\" target=\"_blank\">美股新能源汽车股集体大涨 特斯拉股价飙升近20％</a></p><p>美国科技股周二在债券收益率下跌后上涨，特斯拉止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅，截至收盘，特斯拉股价大涨19.64%，股价涨逾110美元，报673.58美元，市值一夜暴增1061.58亿美元，重回6000亿美元上方，达6465亿美元。</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1199086177\" target=\"_blank\">百度通过港交所上市聆讯</a></p><p>据港交所文件，百度通过港交所上市聆讯。此前有消息称，高盛和中信为其上市保荐团队，百度计划将出售5%-9%的股本，发行筹资规模至少在35亿美元以上。预计近期百度将开始接受投资者认筹，有望在3月正式完成在港二次上市。</p><p>3、消息称中国电动汽车三巨头寻求今年在港上市 筹资总额50亿美元</p><p>据报道，三位知情人士透露，在美上市的中国电动汽车生产商理想汽车(Li Auto Inc)、蔚来汽车(Nio Inc)和小鹏汽车(Xpeng Inc)计划今年年初在香港上市，此举旨在吸引更多的亚洲投资者。上述知情人士表示，这三家公司各自的目标都是出售至少5%的扩大后的香港股份。根据它们周一在纽约的市值，筹资总额可能在50亿美元左右。</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118640802\" target=\"_blank\">再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%两周狂飙450%</a></p><p>周二，美国参议院对年初游戏驿站(GME)等美股散户抱团股大涨引发的交易混乱召开听证会，主角游戏驿站却再度狂飙，收盘涨近27%，上逼250美元，抹去2月来全部跌幅，自2月23日起两周内大涨近450%。</p><p>5、台积电回应拟在欧洲设厂：不排除任何可能性，但未有赴欧计划</p><p>此前有外媒称台积电除了在美国建设先进制程的的芯片生产厂外，还可能会在欧洲建设芯片生产工厂。此外，还有消息称欧盟将通过 2030 年高端芯片在欧洲达到 20% 在当地生产的计划，并有意向台积电等大厂招商，引发外界关注台积电欧洲布局。</p><p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118444876\" target=\"_blank\">自2019年以来，波音飞机月订购量首次超过订单取消量</a></p><p>波音公司在2月售出了82架飞机，而有51架飞机订单取消，这标志着自2019年11月以来，波音公司的飞机月度销售数量首次超过取消的订单数量。</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118564486\" target=\"_blank\">韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元</a></p><p>北京时间3月10日凌晨消息，据报道，韩国电商巨头Coupang今日在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中宣布，将IPO（首次公开招股）发行价区间上调至每股32美元至34美元之间。</p><p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2118289726\" target=\"_blank\">汽车之家：香港二次上市发行价定为每股176.30港元</a></p><p>3月10日早间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>港交所公告，国际发售及香港公开发售的最终发售价均厘定为每股发售股份176.3港元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156457663","content_text":"摘要：美国股市债市双双反弹！纳指大涨近4％，美债收益率回落；新能源汽车股集体大涨，特斯拉飙升近20％，蔚来大涨18%；再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%，两周狂飙450%；韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元。海外市场1、美股全线收涨！纳指涨近4％ 特斯拉涨近20%美股周二高开高走全线收涨，其中道指一度创下历史新高，但尾盘急剧跳水，纳指大涨近4%，因美债收益率下滑，美国参议院通过了1.9万亿美元的刺激计划。截至收盘，道指涨30.3点，报31832.74点，涨幅为0.1%；纳指涨464.66点，报13073.82点，涨幅为3.69%；标普500指数涨54.09点，报3875.44点，涨幅为1.42%。2、中概股全线收涨：蔚来涨近17.44％ 拼多多涨超12％中概股周二收盘集体大涨，其中有256只上涨，39只下跌。知名中概股中阿里巴巴涨4.96%；百度涨11.01%；京东涨4.59%；网易涨7.31%；新浪涨0.54%；拼多多涨12.19%；蔚来涨17.44%；小鹏汽车涨11.33%；理想汽车涨8.20%。3、欧股周二全线收高 欧洲斯托克600指数创2020年2月以来新高欧股周二收盘走高，投资者持续关注美债收益率和企业财报。泛欧斯托克600指数收盘上涨3.16点，涨幅0.76%，报420.41，创2020年2月以来新高。其中公用事业股上涨2%，零售股上涨2.5%；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨57.03点，涨幅0.40%，报14437.94点。4、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％纽约商品交易所4月份交割的黄金期货价格大幅上涨38.90美元，报收于每盎司1716.90美元，涨幅为2.3%，此前该合约在周一的交易中收盘下跌1.2%，按主力合约计算创下了自4月3日以来的最低收盘价。5、原油库存料连续第三周攀升 美油二连跌收低1.6％纽约商品交易所4月份交割的西德克萨斯轻质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌1.04美元，报收于每桶64.01美元，跌幅为1.6%。与此同时，伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所5月份交割的北海布伦特原油期货价格也下跌72美分，报收于每桶67.52美元，跌幅为1.1%。6、比特币攀升至两周高点 Evercore上看75000美元纽约时间下午1:02，比特币一度上涨5.7%，随后缩减一些涨幅，交易价格为53,747美元。第二大加密货币以太币上涨3.8%。Evercore ISI策略师Rich Ross在报告中写道，技术指标支持比特币走强，价格上看75,000美元。国际宏观1、美财政部拍卖580亿美元美债 三年期美债收益率短线下挫美国财政部拍卖580亿美元三年期国债，得标利率0.355%，投标倍数2.69(前次为2.39)。三年期美债收益率短线下挫1.08个基点，最低触及0.3283%，日内整体波动幅度不足2.00个基点。2、市场对美联储上调超额准备金利率与逆回购利率的预期开始降温巴克莱、Wrightson ICAP和美国银行策略师此前都预测美联储可能最早需要在本月会议上调升两项关键利率--隔夜逆回购利率和超额准备金利率(IOER)。而现在，他们都对此更加谨慎。3、欧洲央行上周提高购债总额 从169亿欧元提高至182亿欧元欧洲央行上周加大了紧急购债项下的债券购买规模。截至3月5日当周，欧洲央行通过紧急购债计划购买的债券总额为182亿欧元，超过前周的169亿欧元。【详细】公司新闻1、美股新能源汽车股集体大涨 特斯拉股价飙升近20％美国科技股周二在债券收益率下跌后上涨，特斯拉止住五连跌，并创一年多来最大涨幅，截至收盘，特斯拉股价大涨19.64%，股价涨逾110美元，报673.58美元，市值一夜暴增1061.58亿美元，重回6000亿美元上方，达6465亿美元。2、百度通过港交所上市聆讯据港交所文件，百度通过港交所上市聆讯。此前有消息称，高盛和中信为其上市保荐团队，百度计划将出售5%-9%的股本，发行筹资规模至少在35亿美元以上。预计近期百度将开始接受投资者认筹，有望在3月正式完成在港二次上市。3、消息称中国电动汽车三巨头寻求今年在港上市 筹资总额50亿美元据报道，三位知情人士透露，在美上市的中国电动汽车生产商理想汽车(Li Auto Inc)、蔚来汽车(Nio Inc)和小鹏汽车(Xpeng Inc)计划今年年初在香港上市，此举旨在吸引更多的亚洲投资者。上述知情人士表示，这三家公司各自的目标都是出售至少5%的扩大后的香港股份。根据它们周一在纽约的市值，筹资总额可能在50亿美元左右。4、再度疯狂！游戏驿站再涨27%两周狂飙450%周二，美国参议院对年初游戏驿站(GME)等美股散户抱团股大涨引发的交易混乱召开听证会，主角游戏驿站却再度狂飙，收盘涨近27%，上逼250美元，抹去2月来全部跌幅，自2月23日起两周内大涨近450%。5、台积电回应拟在欧洲设厂：不排除任何可能性，但未有赴欧计划此前有外媒称台积电除了在美国建设先进制程的的芯片生产厂外，还可能会在欧洲建设芯片生产工厂。此外，还有消息称欧盟将通过 2030 年高端芯片在欧洲达到 20% 在当地生产的计划，并有意向台积电等大厂招商，引发外界关注台积电欧洲布局。6、自2019年以来，波音飞机月订购量首次超过订单取消量波音公司在2月售出了82架飞机，而有51架飞机订单取消，这标志着自2019年11月以来，波音公司的飞机月度销售数量首次超过取消的订单数量。7、韩国电商Coupang调高IPO发行价区间，最多融资40亿美元北京时间3月10日凌晨消息，据报道，韩国电商巨头Coupang今日在提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件中宣布，将IPO（首次公开招股）发行价区间上调至每股32美元至34美元之间。8、汽车之家：香港二次上市发行价定为每股176.30港元3月10日早间，汽车之家港交所公告，国际发售及香港公开发售的最终发售价均厘定为每股发售股份176.3港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384272560,"gmtCreate":1613659314850,"gmtModify":1613659314850,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547671095374567","idStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>这是被资本市场抛弃了吗？[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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TR(BCHG)$比特币上2.6万美元了，怎么灰度反而大跌了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333916043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":305988779,"gmtCreate":1604882291691,"gmtModify":1703834927986,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547671095374567","idStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"之前为了打新挤破头，打不到捶胸顿足。现在墙倒了大家都来踹一脚。有种以后别打新蚂蚁。","listText":"之前为了打新挤破头，打不到捶胸顿足。现在墙倒了大家都来踹一脚。有种以后别打新蚂蚁。","text":"之前为了打新挤破头，打不到捶胸顿足。现在墙倒了大家都来踹一脚。有种以后别打新蚂蚁。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/305988779","repostId":"1159579603","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159579603","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604720555,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159579603?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-07 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民，从这件事聊聊排雷技巧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159579603","media":"唐书房","summary":"煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了。","content":"<p><b>近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。</b></p><p>中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。</p><p>可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。</p><p>从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。</p><p>随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行，最终以人民币68.8元/股（港币80元/股）合计发行AH股约38.4亿股，相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份，换来约2650亿，估值超过2.1万亿。</p><p>本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象，上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台，成为A股第一巨头，一只巨无霸蚂蚁。</p><p>可惜，马云或许是一时得意忘形，或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论，在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。</p><p>结果事情峰回路转，煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e0ff27051304fa524aeb148b478c51\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们，一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数，但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊，人均也超过800万元。</p><p>互联网的舆论热点，集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上，很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异，也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。</p><p>我们看到的事情，发生的顺序是这酱紫的：</p><p>①9月18日，蚂蚁获准上市；→②10月24日，马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲，炮轰银行是当铺思维，巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部；→</p><p>③11月2日，人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明；→</p><p>④11月2日，人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法（征求意见稿）》（下称《暂行办法》）；→</p><p>⑤11月3日，上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市；→⑥11月4日，H股冻结资金开始退款；→⑦11月6日，A股中签新股认购款开始退款。</p><p>事情的顺序仿佛是：上市成功，得意忘形，批评监管，遭到报复。</p><p>但是，用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容，对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容，我们会发现，事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。</p><p>马云10月24日炮轰的目标，就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。</p><p>这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实，将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击，其核心主要是两条（其他打击还有，只是这两条比较致命）：</p><p><b>第十二条：经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍；通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。</b></p><p><b>第十五条第三款：在单笔联合贷款中，经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。</b></p><p>为什么这两条比较致命呢？</p><p>简单的说，蚂蚁的业务，就是利用自己所掌控的大数据，发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。</p><p>目前总规模约2万亿，其中小微企业贷占比约20%，消费贷（我们熟悉的借呗、花呗）占比约80%。</p><p>这两万亿资金从哪里来呢？</p><p>属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的，大约占比不到2%，其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源：</p><p>第一，通过联合贷款的方式，利用银行或其他金融机构的资金；</p><p>第二，以资产证券化的方式，上述债权为抵押，发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。</p><p>在传统的银行放贷活动中，银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例，对公贷款平均利率4.14%，对私贷款平均利率6.1%。</p><p>而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款，可以做到利率15%~24%。</p><p>所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入，就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。</p><p>以联合贷款为例，按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据，蚂蚁是以360亿出资，撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。</p><p>假设我们以15%利率，蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算，蚂蚁就是用360亿本金，一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。</p><p>这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解，毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金，或许会赚来几千亿利息，届时估值就不高了。</p><p>资产证券化也是一样。</p><p>蚂蚁放贷100亿，然后用这100亿债权抵押，发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿；用这90亿债权抵押，发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……</p><p>循环滚动，很容易就可以撬动千亿规模，高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。</p><p>然而，监管部门看到的是，如此高的杠杆叠加，一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题（比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快，结果公司裁员，突然失去收入，无力偿还），其连锁反应，就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。</p><p>届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们，还不是照样两手一摊，要求政府出面救助，否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看，导致整个金融系统瘫痪。</p><p>甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点：能不能先不急着划分责任，金融体系正在崩溃，人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家，拯救人民吧！</p><p>Yes，you can，政府怎么办？《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。</p><p>通过非标融资（银行借款、股东借款等）上限不得超过净资产的1倍；通过标准化产品融资（债券、资产证券化等）上限不得超过其净资产的4倍；联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。</p><p>最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制，蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。</p><p>马云的演讲，炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维，“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。</p><p>创新和监管的边界和关系，话题很深，需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围，留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说，我站在监管一边，但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。</p><p>现在，先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想<b>三个简单而可怕的问题</b>：</p><p>①这份《暂行办法》如果实施，对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空，这是无疑的。对不？</p><p>②我们知道，我国相关行业监管文件出台前，都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见，通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。</p><p>这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前，就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。</p><p>如果此推论属实，意味着在《暂行办法》发布前，马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧？</p><p>③接下来的事情，就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢？</p><p>第一是保密——这无可厚非。</p><p>第二是动用一切力量，以创纪录的速度上市，以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提，对企业进行估值，给新股定价。</p><p>他们做到了，他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前，就完成了新股发行。</p><p>甚至我怀疑，原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。</p><p>只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易，届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了，所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。</p><p>如果这个推论属实，我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。</p><p>马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论，纯属虚构。如有雷同，实属巧合：</p><p><b>兄弟们，加油啊，拼命啊，一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前，将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。</b></p><p><b>否则，一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了，他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价！</b></p><p><b>兄弟们，这是生死攸关的时刻，我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神，与时间赛跑。</b></p><p><b>只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前，顺利登陆资本市场，就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑，是阿里人的伟大胜利。</b></p><p><b>只要我们登陆成功，各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励，豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。</b></p><p><b>更关键的是，我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金，从而在未来更严格的资本要求下，取得相对同行的碾压式优势。</b></p><p><b>兄弟们，几千亿面前，睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996，直接007。</b></p><p><b>你们每个人的名字，都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们，你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了，抓不抓的住猪，就看你的了！</b></p><p>哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00591cd10d29240d23e0e432c72d560e\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>至于上市成功后，监管意见出台，当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样，以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时，股价暴跌到哪里，那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。</p><p>今天，这种作法不触犯刑法吗？我不懂，但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。</p><p>法律如果不管，我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解：社会就这样，主义自己拿，这就叫社会主义<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85624dd67e5295e79dc1f11b317f220\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这件事带给我的经验就是：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/596d782e6ba98a04ba9eb3e4eaa31566\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"635\"></p><p>这不奇怪，早在两年前，有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里，我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。</p><p>然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么，老唐当时回复如下：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8105543100b99f225a8eff55576cbf1\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"776\"></p><p>什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观，决定了不同的人在同样的选择下，会做出的什么选择。</p><p>一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观，绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。</p><p>这或许可能让我们错过牛股，但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。</p><p>由此，老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例，同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。</p><p>上周周记下面，好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼，有点兴趣——顺带说一句，我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。</p><p>然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场：白云机场（链接在此：<b>《岭上白云有疑点（上）》《岭上白云有疑点（下）》，发表于2017年10月21日</b>）</p><p>翻了翻旧文，挺有意思的。</p><p>当时白云机场270亿市值，市场一片看好之声，基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间，年产自由现金25~30亿，2018年之后确定增长，270亿市值“严重低估”。</p><p>老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65e6fd10615ee00b05c0f518ca901c5d\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"1034\"></p><p>老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报，我没有去关注它的利润和增长，而是从管理层的一个行为观察，发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观，遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。</p><p>其中第一桶冷水，就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式，得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来，认为270亿市值高估的结论。</p><p>详细论证过程，我就不在这里重复了，感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可（向书房发送“机场”即可提取）——特意强调：尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点，我觉着比文章本身的价值更大<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94e99ba5f192e4e7d8118db610186d0d\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p><p>这个大半天得出的结论，相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告，结果如何呢？</p><p>沾时间这把无情刻刀的光，今天我们可以用上帝视角，回看白云机场的经营情况了：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315c1a4d27b85f17a2725ed74d75c80e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"640\"></p><p>疫情冲击下的2020年，咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。</p><p>2018年不仅没有17~20亿，反而同比下跌约30%，只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底，对2018年的预测偏差，恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。</p><p>至于2019年的确定性增长，更是没有看见，净利润进一步下滑至10亿。</p><p>而且还不能推给意外，因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b21dd1acfdf5aa2d92e75999d7e84efe\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"></p><p>三年后的今天，白云机场市值306亿。也还不错，涨了13%，年化收益率约4%出头，还是比存银行收益高。</p><p>但是，这13%的涨幅，是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的，企业经营本身是负面贡献。</p><p>上述两个例子，就是老唐今天想说的：通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为，可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。</p><p>当然，必须要强调的是：以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据，只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层，被算计的概率<b>大大降低</b>。</p><p>但，它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。</p><p>最有说服的反例恐怕就是：老唐通过此秘方，成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8adf2281fb5c60ac1b1450cec584d4\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p>","source":"lsy1604720364158","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民，从这件事聊聊排雷技巧</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁暂缓上市救了无数股民，从这件事聊聊排雷技巧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-07 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ><strong>唐书房</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92890b55f8b70709c23ff81ddac0242d","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/_1tZb0_suNYx7lG-EiVtqQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159579603","content_text":"近日，舆论热点是蚂蚁的创新与监管的博弈。很少有人注意到，监管部门一纸文件胜造七级浮屠，从蚂蚁刨出的陷阱里，挽救韭菜无数。中签蚂蚁的新股缴款开始退还，这场跌宕起伏的资本大戏，似乎很快就要落下帷幕了。可以预计，伴随着很快到来的下一个刷屏热点，马云牵着他的蚂蚁，悄悄地就退场了。从8月25日递交上市申请，到9月18日获准上市，满打满算也就用了25天（19个工作日），蚂蚁集团借此创下中国股市“史上最快IPO”记录。随后便是以153.69倍市盈率的估值定价发行，最终以人民币68.8元/股（港币80元/股）合计发行AH股约38.4亿股，相当于出让了蚂蚁集团12.4%的股份，换来约2650亿，估值超过2.1万亿。本来周四就应该上市交易的。可以想象，上市第一天蚂蚁的市值就将超过茅台，成为A股第一巨头，一只巨无霸蚂蚁。可惜，马云或许是一时得意忘形，或许是意图利用自己的影响力左右舆论，在10月24日的金融峰会上炮轰监管。结果事情峰回路转，煮熟的鸭子，居然张开翅膀，嘎嘎嘎地飞走了阿里内部那些正计划怎么花销那1300多亿股权激励的巨富们，一定和杭州的豪宅炒家们一样失落——虽然没有披露享受这1300多亿股权激励的具体人数，但即便按照蚂蚁集团总计约1.7万名员工平摊，人均也超过800万元。互联网的舆论热点，集中在监管和创新的冲突问题上，很少有人注意到这件事情背后隐藏的诡异，也很少有人注意到那个给数百万投资者挖好的巨坑。我们看到的事情，发生的顺序是这酱紫的：①9月18日，蚂蚁获准上市；→②10月24日，马云在外滩金融峰会发表演讲，炮轰银行是当铺思维，巴塞尔协议是老年人俱乐部；→③11月2日，人民银行、证监会、银保监会、外管局联合约谈蚂蚁实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明；→④11月2日，人民银行和银保监会联合发布《网络小额贷款业务管理暂行办法（征求意见稿）》（下称《暂行办法》）；→⑤11月3日，上交所宣布蚂蚁集团暂缓上市；→⑥11月4日，H股冻结资金开始退款；→⑦11月6日，A股中签新股认购款开始退款。事情的顺序仿佛是：上市成功，得意忘形，批评监管，遭到报复。但是，用马云在外滩金融峰会的演讲内容，对照9天后公开披露的《暂行办法》内容，我们会发现，事情的顺序可能不是表面看上去的样子。马云10月24日炮轰的目标，就是11月2日公开的这份《暂行办法》。这份《暂行办法》如果最终落实，将对于蚂蚁集团的业务构成重大打击，其核心主要是两条（其他打击还有，只是这两条比较致命）：第十二条：经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司通过银行借款、股东借款等非标准化融资形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的1倍；通过发行债券、资产证券化产品等标准化债权类资产形式融入资金的余额不得超过其净资产的4倍。第十五条第三款：在单笔联合贷款中，经营网络小额贷款业务的小额贷款公司的出资比例不得低于30%。为什么这两条比较致命呢？简单的说，蚂蚁的业务，就是利用自己所掌控的大数据，发放小微企业贷款及消费贷。目前总规模约2万亿，其中小微企业贷占比约20%，消费贷（我们熟悉的借呗、花呗）占比约80%。这两万亿资金从哪里来呢？属于蚂蚁集团自有资本金的，大约占比不到2%，其余98%左右的资金主要是两个来源：第一，通过联合贷款的方式，利用银行或其他金融机构的资金；第二，以资产证券化的方式，上述债权为抵押，发行理财产品、信托产品募集资金。在传统的银行放贷活动中，银行收取的利率不会超过7%——以行业翘楚招商银行的2020年半年报数据为例，对公贷款平均利率4.14%，对私贷款平均利率6.1%。而蚂蚁集团通过借呗花呗等渠道发放的贷款，可以做到利率15%~24%。所以蚂蚁只需要分出不到一半利息收入，就足以让银行掌柜们捧上资金在门口排队叫马爸爸。以联合贷款为例，按照蚂蚁IPO文件数据，蚂蚁是以360亿出资，撬动了1.8万亿联合贷款。假设我们以15%利率，蚂蚁和出资银行五五分账计算，蚂蚁就是用360亿本金，一年赚18000×7.5%=1350亿利息。这样的生意给150倍市盈率可以理解，毕竟投资者可能畅想明年有了1350+360=1710亿本金，或许会赚来几千亿利息，届时估值就不高了。资产证券化也是一样。蚂蚁放贷100亿，然后用这100亿债权抵押，发行90亿收益率6%的理财产品然后放贷90亿；用这90亿债权抵押，发行81亿收益率6%的理财产品……循环滚动，很容易就可以撬动千亿规模，高杠杆之下回报率自然高的吓人。然而，监管部门看到的是，如此高的杠杆叠加，一旦底层债权的偿还出现问题（比如你花呗借呗剁手痛快，结果公司裁员，突然失去收入，无力偿还），其连锁反应，就是2008年美国次贷危机的中国版。届时曾经吃的脑满肠肥的蚂蚁们，还不是照样两手一摊，要求政府出面救助，否则各大银行真可能会亲自死给人民看，导致整个金融系统瘫痪。甚至届时始作俑者轻飘飘地就可以抢占道德制高点：能不能先不急着划分责任，金融体系正在崩溃，人民财富正在灰飞烟灭。让我们携手先拯救国家，拯救人民吧！Yes，you can，政府怎么办？《暂行办法》就是来堵这个窟窿的。通过非标融资（银行借款、股东借款等）上限不得超过净资产的1倍；通过标准化产品融资（债券、资产证券化等）上限不得超过其净资产的4倍；联合贷款中出资比例不得低于30%——三招全部瞄准着杠杆倍数的七寸。最终蚂蚁的贷款规模必须受到蚂蚁自有资金的限制，蚂蚁的业务和利润毫无疑问都将受到巨大打击。马云的演讲，炮轰的就是这些“落后的”当铺思维，“僵化的”老年人俱乐部规则。创新和监管的边界和关系，话题很深，需要的专业知识超出了老唐的能力范围，留给专家和学者去辩论吧——坦率说，我站在监管一边，但我不敢保证我的看法一定对——我们就看我们能力范围内的事情就好。现在，先不论监管和创新谁对谁错。让我们回头想三个简单而可怕的问题：①这份《暂行办法》如果实施，对于蚂蚁集团的经营是重大利空，这是无疑的。对不？②我们知道，我国相关行业监管文件出台前，都会提前小范围征求业内看法、专家意见，通过征集意见进行讨论和完善。这也是马云在《暂行办法》公开披露前，就能够以它为目标开炮的前提条件。如果此推论属实，意味着在《暂行办法》发布前，马云及蚂蚁的核心管理层已经知道公司可能会面临巨大利空打击。对吧？③接下来的事情，就细思极恐了。马云及蚂蚁管理层怎么处理这可能的利空呢？第一是保密——这无可厚非。第二是动用一切力量，以创纪录的速度上市，以蚂蚁将继续以过去的模式扩张和获利为假设前提，对企业进行估值，给新股定价。他们做到了，他们真的做到了。赶在监管层对社会公开《暂行办法》前，就完成了新股发行。甚至我怀疑，原本《暂行办法》计划的公开时间要更晚些。只是因为11月4日蚂蚁的新股将上市交易，届时可能就生米熟饭无可挽回了，所以才被迫于11月2日匆忙公开。如果这个推论属实，我们隔着屏幕就可以猜出蚂蚁内部会议上的讲话。马云先生可能是这样慷慨激昂地发表演说——以下言论，纯属虚构。如有雷同，实属巧合：兄弟们，加油啊，拼命啊，一定要抢在《暂行办法》公开前，将那些瓜娃子的钱拿到我们手上。否则，一旦他们知道我们以后不可能用以前的方式去赚钱了，他们绝不可能接受按2.1万亿的估值出价！兄弟们，这是生死攸关的时刻，我们必须要发扬红军飞夺泸定桥的精神，与时间赛跑。只要抢在瓜娃子们知道监管规则巨变之前，顺利登陆资本市场，就是蚂蚁人的伟大丰碑，是阿里人的伟大胜利。只要我们登陆成功，各位不仅有机会兑现千亿股权激励，豪宅豪车美女统统滴有、大大滴有。更关键的是，我们将在《暂行办法》出台前获得两千多亿的资本金，从而在未来更严格的资本要求下，取得相对同行的碾压式优势。兄弟们，几千亿面前，睡觉太奢侈了。我要求你们放弃996，直接007。你们每个人的名字，都将在蚂蚁的史册里闪闪发光。兄弟们，你人生里最大的一次历史机遇摆在你的面前了，抓不抓的住猪，就看你的了！哗哗哗……雷鸣般的掌声持续了6688秒至于上市成功后，监管意见出台，当投资者发现蚂蚁根本不可能再像过去那样，以极少的自有资本去赚取高额利润时，股价暴跌到哪里，那就是瓜娃子股民自己的事情了。今天，这种作法不触犯刑法吗？我不懂，但觉着应该有一条法律来界定。法律如果不管，我们只能靠自己照顾自己——又想起小时候听老父亲说的那句朴素理解：社会就这样，主义自己拿，这就叫社会主义这件事带给我的经验就是：这不奇怪，早在两年前，有朋友在书房问我为什么投腾讯不投阿里，我当时就是回答“因为不喜欢马云”。然后一位朋友在留言区追问为什么，老唐当时回复如下：什么样的道德观、价值观和世界观，决定了不同的人在同样的选择下，会做出的什么选择。一家企业管理团队的历史决策所依据的道德观和价值观，绝对是我们排除企业的重要依据之一。这或许可能让我们错过牛股，但同样会保护我们避免掉进一些可怕的陷阱。由此，老唐又联想到书房里的一个历史案例，同样是用管理层行为排除掉的一个企业。上周周记下面，好几位朋友询问上海机场。老唐瞄了眼，有点兴趣——顺带说一句，我今天66.66买了1000股观察仓。然后想起三年前曾经点杀过另一间机场：白云机场（链接在此：《岭上白云有疑点（上）》《岭上白云有疑点（下）》，发表于2017年10月21日）翻了翻旧文，挺有意思的。当时白云机场270亿市值，市场一片看好之声，基本预测2018年净利润在17~20亿之间，年产自由现金25~30亿，2018年之后确定增长，270亿市值“严重低估”。老唐当时记录大家看好的理由和预测：老唐当时只花了大半天时间阅读财报，我没有去关注它的利润和增长，而是从管理层的一个行为观察，发现事情可能不像大家预想的那么乐观，遂成文泼下两大桶+五小杯冷水。其中第一桶冷水，就是通过白云机场发行可转债以及控股股东和管理层对可转债的处理方式，得出大股东和管理层不看好白云机场的未来，认为270亿市值高估的结论。详细论证过程，我就不在这里重复了，感兴趣的朋友直接阅读《白云之上有疑点》上下篇即可（向书房发送“机场”即可提取）——特意强调：尤其不要错过留言区。实时记录了当时的市场气氛和多空观点，我觉着比文章本身的价值更大这个大半天得出的结论，相比那些深入挖掘企业资产负债及利润增长的研究报告，结果如何呢？沾时间这把无情刻刀的光，今天我们可以用上帝视角，回看白云机场的经营情况了：疫情冲击下的2020年，咱们排除不看。就看正常经营的2018和2019年。2018年不仅没有17~20亿，反而同比下跌约30%，只有11亿——考虑到当时已经是2017年10月底，对2018年的预测偏差，恐怕只能用脱靶二字评价了。至于2019年的确定性增长，更是没有看见，净利润进一步下滑至10亿。而且还不能推给意外，因为扣非净利润数据趋势是一致的。三年后的今天，白云机场市值306亿。也还不错，涨了13%，年化收益率约4%出头，还是比存银行收益高。但是，这13%的涨幅，是市盈率从17倍变成30多倍赠送的，企业经营本身是负面贡献。上述两个例子，就是老唐今天想说的：通过观察核心股东或管理层的行为，可以让我们规避一些投资道路上的陷阱。当然，必须要强调的是：以管理层的表现作为排除企业的依据，只是意味着你躲开了某些心生邪念的管理层，被算计的概率大大降低。但，它并不意味着这些管理层掌控的公司股票不会上涨。最有说服的反例恐怕就是：老唐通过此秘方，成功地躲开了泸州老窖这只7年14倍的大牛股","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":313476611,"gmtCreate":1611748625933,"gmtModify":1703752996658,"author":{"id":"3547671095374567","authorId":"3547671095374567","name":"自由引导我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf636a496e1d40c059ecf0accab3e45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547671095374567","authorIdStr":"3547671095374567"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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