进击的jason的个人主页 - 老虎社区

进击的jason

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IP属地：北京

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2021-02-09

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$讲道理股价两三块到天边了吧。参考tilray acb 等初具规模的公司市值30-40亿，参考近一年历史价位市值基本是增长平均3.5倍左右。canopy市值是高但人家近期股价高啊也是4倍多。况且目前sndl还要面临股价维持1 还有合股的问题. 吆喝着什么5块 10块的朋友，股票再怎么涨也要依据基本事实啊😂 只是看到一些打鸡血的帖子感觉很离谱。之前看帖子什么10倍股，从一毛涨到了1块是10倍没问题。。。纯属个人观点可以多交流

2022-08-04

$每日优鲜(MF)$落袋为安跑了！

2022-08-24

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$实现不了量产就在游戏里量产真的秀的我头痛哈哈哈哈[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 千算万算，原来在元宇宙里率先量产太奇葩了

2021-02-17

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$这票是什么情况啊拿不住了啊

2021-03-03

$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$这股票成交量这么少基本没有换手率还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友。长期看好就拿着，时间成本也是钱就这时间去做T也是不错的选择神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的醒醒啊朋友！

2021-02-12

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$说收购葡萄柚公司的人你们去看看那个公司才多少市值，市值低又不是什么重要的战略收购，还想着收购完暴涨？简直可笑我之前帖子已经说了两块合理区间，三块可以冲一冲。别幻想了呀别骗自己了呀能跑就跑吧

2021-02-09

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$旁边两支都涨飞了还在织布什么玩意

2023-03-10

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 预测4月新闻通稿：4月底成功实现量产，但是由于未取得销售资质，无奈只能继续延期交付[微笑]

2022-08-22

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$现在是跟scott vogel，jordan vogel，还有swenson的矛盾很大，已经挑明了先把krolicki搞出董事会，然后接下来就是搞上边说到的另外几个人，车还没量产，董事会又这么乱，量产ff91真的是痴人说梦，刚上市说钱够，快到保证的量产日期，又说需要另外融资。信用扫地，管理混乱，各种内斗，只能说这公司真的是奇葩至于何时能实现他们的承诺可能是永远在下周。

2021-03-22

$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$热度好低感觉凉了[白眼]

2021-02-19

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 今晚应该是1.1左右欧盘还是蛮准的。。。

2022-09-06

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$nice啊破1！！！

2021-03-07

好

@许哲:最近发生了些啥

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$热度好低 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著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","listText":"作者：许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","text":"作者：许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24986cecdcb4df09cdb2c6a0dc81a22"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953720633861487793d51476ed3c218e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c3e2b554b4b4b9b1b43cf1459379c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365526580,"gmtCreate":1614763027740,"gmtModify":1703480765350,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率&nbsp;还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着，时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择&nbsp; 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 &nbsp;醒醒啊朋友！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率&nbsp;还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着，时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择&nbsp; 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 &nbsp;醒醒啊朋友！","text":"$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率 还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着，时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 醒醒啊朋友！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365526580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"content":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈","text":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈","html":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387336044,"gmtCreate":1613720150588,"gmtModify":1613720150588,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387336044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535776997826767","authorId":"3535776997826767","name":"ZXY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbee72e460d4ad7dd85263d26e2175b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535776997826767","authorIdStr":"3535776997826767"},"content":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？","text":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？","html":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385436294,"gmtCreate":1613571298418,"gmtModify":1613571298418,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385436294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498007697492942","authorId":"3498007697492942","name":"股票价格预测员","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3498007697492942","authorIdStr":"3498007697492942"},"content":"这票就值2毛，拿的越久越可能回归真实价值，看着办","text":"这票就值2毛，拿的越久越可能回归真实价值，看着办","html":"这票就值2毛，拿的越久越可能回归真实价值，看着办"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386927748,"gmtCreate":1613129047384,"gmtModify":1613129047384,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>说收购葡萄柚公司的人 &nbsp;你们去看看那个公司才多少市值，市值低 又不是什么重要的战略收购，还想着收购完暴涨？简直可笑&nbsp;我之前帖子已经说了两块合理区间，三块可以冲一冲。别幻想了呀 别骗自己了呀 能跑就跑吧&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>说收购葡萄柚公司的人 &nbsp;你们去看看那个公司才多少市值，市值低 又不是什么重要的战略收购，还想着收购完暴涨？简直可笑&nbsp;我之前帖子已经说了两块合理区间，三块可以冲一冲。别幻想了呀 别骗自己了呀 能跑就跑吧&nbsp;","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$说收购葡萄柚公司的人 你们去看看那个公司才多少市值，市值低 又不是什么重要的战略收购，还想着收购完暴涨？简直可笑 我之前帖子已经说了两块合理区间，三块可以冲一冲。别幻想了呀 别骗自己了呀 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欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387336044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535776997826767","authorId":"3535776997826767","name":"ZXY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbee72e460d4ad7dd85263d26e2175b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535776997826767","authorIdStr":"3535776997826767"},"content":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？","text":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？","html":"欧盘哪里准，连续三天盘前5%…10%涨，开盘+盘后10%-20%跌，你什么眼神？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669240217,"gmtCreate":1662472633039,"gmtModify":1662472634024,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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破1！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669240217","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320884171,"gmtCreate":1615079785193,"gmtModify":1703484545530,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320884171","repostId":"364788095","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364788095,"gmtCreate":1614841140000,"gmtModify":1703482440905,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"最近发生了些啥","htmlText":"作者：许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","listText":"作者：许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","text":"作者：许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的，然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况，发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的，事情发生了再分析为啥为啥，总有办法能说圆的，但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山，我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的，因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么，只关心收益率，资本只有一个目标：增值。资产可以有风险，但必须有收益率的溢价，同样的收益率，如果一个无风险，一个有风险，那么资本会抛弃风险资产，涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平，从去年三月份市场大跌，联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报，到现在1.5%，整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢？联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps，也就是0.25%，这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息，已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了，加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力，利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞，因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信，都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率，飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去，那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好，那么问题来了，为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢？这主要是市场对于通胀的预期，有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点，大部分公众号","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24986cecdcb4df09cdb2c6a0dc81a22"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953720633861487793d51476ed3c218e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c3e2b554b4b4b9b1b43cf1459379c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}