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进击的jason
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进击的jason
2023-03-10
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
预测4月新闻通稿:4月底成功实现量产,但是由于未取得销售资质,无奈只能继续延期交付[微笑]
进击的jason
2022-09-06
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
nice啊 破1!!!
进击的jason
2022-08-24
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
实现不了量产 就在游戏里量产 真的秀的我头痛 哈哈哈哈[捂脸] [捂脸] [捂脸] 千算万算,原来在元宇宙里率先量产 太奇葩了
进击的jason
2022-08-22
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
现在是跟scott vogel,jordan vogel,还有swenson的矛盾很大,已经挑明了先把krolicki搞出董事会,然后接下来就是搞上边说到的另外几个人,车还没量产,董事会又这么乱,量产ff91真的是痴人说梦,刚上市说钱够,快到保证的量产日期,又说需要另外融资。信用扫地,管理混乱,各种内斗,只能说这公司真的是奇葩 至于何时能实现他们的承诺 可能是永远在下周。
进击的jason
2022-08-04
$每日优鲜(MF)$
落袋为安 跑了!
进击的jason
2021-03-22
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
热度好低 感觉凉了[白眼]
进击的jason
2021-03-07
好
@许哲:最近发生了些啥
进击的jason
2021-03-03
$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$
这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率 还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着,时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 醒醒啊朋友!
进击的jason
2021-02-19
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。
进击的jason
2021-02-17
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊
进击的jason
2021-02-12
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
说收购葡萄柚公司的人 你们去看看那个公司才多少市值,市值低 又不是什么重要的战略收购,还想着收购完暴涨?简直可笑 我之前帖子已经说了两块合理区间,三块可以冲一冲。别幻想了呀 别骗自己了呀 能跑就跑吧
进击的jason
2021-02-09
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
讲道理 股价两三块到天边了吧。参考tilray acb 等初具规模的公司 市值30-40亿,参考近一年历史价位 市值基本是增长平均3.5倍左右。canopy市值是高 但人家近期股价高啊 也是4倍多。况且目前sndl还要面临股价维持1 还有合股的问题. 吆喝着什么5块 10块的朋友,股票再怎么涨也要依据基本事实啊😂 只是看到一些打鸡血的帖子 感觉很离谱。之前看帖子什么10倍股,从一毛涨到了1块 是10倍没问题。。。纯属个人观点 可以多交流
进击的jason
2021-02-09
$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$
旁边两支都涨飞了 还在织布 什么玩意
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Corp(PSAC)$热度好低 感觉凉了[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359746851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320884171,"gmtCreate":1615079785193,"gmtModify":1703484545530,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320884171","repostId":"364788095","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364788095,"gmtCreate":1614841140000,"gmtModify":1703482440905,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3453943051225490","idStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"最近发生了些啥","htmlText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","listText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","text":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24986cecdcb4df09cdb2c6a0dc81a22"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953720633861487793d51476ed3c218e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c3e2b554b4b4b9b1b43cf1459379c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365526580,"gmtCreate":1614763027740,"gmtModify":1703480765350,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率 还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着,时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 醒醒啊朋友!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$</a>这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率 还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着,时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 醒醒啊朋友!","text":"$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$这股票成交量这么少 基本没有换手率 还分析毛的机构砸盘不砸盘的。。。别意淫了朋友 。长期看好就拿着,时间成本也是钱 就这时间去做T也是不错的选择 神神叨叨还分析什么机构操作的 醒醒啊朋友!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365526580","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"content":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈","text":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈","html":"等成交量上去再分析机构操作吧朋友 连100万成交量都没的股票 你也太看不起机构了吧 哈哈哈哈"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387336044,"gmtCreate":1613720150588,"gmtModify":1613720150588,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 今晚应该是1.1左右 欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387336044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535776997826767","authorId":"3535776997826767","name":"ZXY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbee72e460d4ad7dd85263d26e2175b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3535776997826767","idStr":"3535776997826767"},"content":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?","text":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?","html":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":385436294,"gmtCreate":1613571298418,"gmtModify":1613571298418,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$这票是什么情况啊 拿不住了啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385436294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498007697492942","authorId":"3498007697492942","name":"股票价格预测员","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3498007697492942","idStr":"3498007697492942"},"content":"这票就值2毛,拿的越久越可能回归真实价值,看着办","text":"这票就值2毛,拿的越久越可能回归真实价值,看着办","html":"这票就值2毛,拿的越久越可能回归真实价值,看着办"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386927748,"gmtCreate":1613129047384,"gmtModify":1613129047384,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3547639024714063","idStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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能跑就跑吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386927748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"content":"有的兄弟说去葡萄柚提前埋伏 如果是tilray、canopy等规模公司去收购 股价上升空间很大. sndl自身难保 你跟我说 怎么拉被收购公司的股价?别看那些喊口号的什么 5块 10块的,扪心自问 可能吗???","text":"有的兄弟说去葡萄柚提前埋伏 如果是tilray、canopy等规模公司去收购 股价上升空间很大. sndl自身难保 你跟我说 怎么拉被收购公司的股价?别看那些喊口号的什么 5块 10块的,扪心自问 可能吗???","html":"有的兄弟说去葡萄柚提前埋伏 如果是tilray、canopy等规模公司去收购 股价上升空间很大. sndl自身难保 你跟我说 怎么拉被收购公司的股价?别看那些喊口号的什么 5块 10块的,扪心自问 可能吗???"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383032668,"gmtCreate":1612804955954,"gmtModify":1703765385987,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>旁边两支都涨飞了 还在织布 什么玩意","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a>旁边两支都涨飞了 还在织布 什么玩意","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$旁边两支都涨飞了 还在织布 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预测4月新闻通稿:4月底成功实现量产,但是由于未取得销售资质,无奈只能继续延期交付[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627549355","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"content":"5月份新闻通稿:由于相关销售资质认证程序推进缓慢,剩余资金已无法维持公司正常运转,仍需潜在投资人投入xxxxx元以完成车辆最终交付。","text":"5月份新闻通稿:由于相关销售资质认证程序推进缓慢,剩余资金已无法维持公司正常运转,仍需潜在投资人投入xxxxx元以完成车辆最终交付。","html":"5月份新闻通稿:由于相关销售资质认证程序推进缓慢,剩余资金已无法维持公司正常运转,仍需潜在投资人投入xxxxx元以完成车辆最终交付。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687598414,"gmtCreate":1661146235939,"gmtModify":1661146786459,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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欧盘还是蛮准的。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387336044","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3535776997826767","authorId":"3535776997826767","name":"ZXY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bbee72e460d4ad7dd85263d26e2175b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535776997826767","authorIdStr":"3535776997826767"},"content":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?","text":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?","html":"欧盘哪里准,连续三天盘前5%…10%涨,开盘+盘后10%-20%跌,你什么眼神?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669240217,"gmtCreate":1662472633039,"gmtModify":1662472634024,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>nice啊 破1!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">$Faraday Future(FFIE)$</a>nice啊 破1!!!","text":"$Faraday Future(FFIE)$nice啊 破1!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669240217","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":320884171,"gmtCreate":1615079785193,"gmtModify":1703484545530,"author":{"id":"3547639024714063","authorId":"3547639024714063","name":"进击的jason","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3547639024714063","authorIdStr":"3547639024714063"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320884171","repostId":"364788095","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":364788095,"gmtCreate":1614841140000,"gmtModify":1703482440905,"author":{"id":"3453943051225490","authorId":"3453943051225490","name":"许哲","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c46141457152637805577175903002ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3453943051225490","authorIdStr":"3453943051225490"},"themes":[],"title":"最近发生了些啥","htmlText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","listText":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","text":"作者:许哲 著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权,非商业转载请注明出处。 最近市场波动蛮大的,然后早上在自己个群里阐述了一下最近的概况,发现很多朋友都不晓得最近发生的事情。我是不喜欢事后诸葛亮的,事情发生了再分析为啥为啥,总有办法能说圆的,但没任何意义。但有鉴于隔行如隔山,我给大家翻译翻译最近发生了个啥。 最大的变化是美国国债的收益率一路飙到了 1.5%这个水平。 这个是比较要命的,因为金融市场最底层的原理是收益风险的代偿原理。资金并不关心投资了什么,只关心收益率,资本只有一个目标:增值。资产可以有风险,但必须有收益率的溢价,同样的收益率,如果一个无风险,一个有风险,那么资本会抛弃风险资产,涌入无风险资产。 美股现在的股息回报率大概在 1.5% 的水平,从去年三月份市场大跌,联储干预把利率直接打到零大概0.5%左右的十年期回报,到现在1.5%,整整上了1% 了。这是什么概念呢?联储一次加息的幅度大概是 25 bps,也就是0.25%,这是市场连续自行一年内加了四次息,已经比上一次加息周期里最快的一年三才还要快了。 所以美股的动荡不安也就非常好理解了,加息是一切泡沫资产最后灰飞烟灭的起因。而连续快速的加息会让一切基于投机者幻想的旁氏游戏嘎然而止。 巴菲特的比喻是利率犹如股市的引力,利率越高地心引力越大。为什么之前各种妖股能乱飞,因为地心引力为零了。突然飙升的利率犹如突然恢复的重力。 2000年 .com bubble 的涨幅和对“新范式”的推崇一点不弱于当下。无数对于价值投资的蔑视和“这次不一样”的自信,都遭遇到了毁灭性的惩罚。 波澜壮阔的30年期美国国债的收益率,飙到了 2.33%的水平。这个上升速度如果持续下去,那梦醒时分就迫在眉睫了。 好,那么问题来了,为什么美国国债的收益率会一路快速飙升呢?这主要是市场对于通胀的预期,有极端悲观的看法。关于这一点,大部分公众号","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c24986cecdcb4df09cdb2c6a0dc81a22"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953720633861487793d51476ed3c218e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f54c3e2b554b4b4b9b1b43cf1459379c"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364788095","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}