少年赌客1的个人主页 - 老虎社区

少年赌客1

少年赌客1

金融法律投行

IP属地：北京

21关注

12粉丝

6主题

0勋章

04-10

$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$ 平了一半的金子仓位，从1900一路加仓上来！准备回来加仓A股，明年年初就差不多能上3000美元了。我多次说过普通人不要做黄金期货这玩意不是你能玩的。更不要买纸黄金Q，去买黄金实物，挣钱不挣钱无所谓，活下去最重要。害怕有朋友担心实物黄金放在家不放心，银行有保险箱，租一个很便宜的！！！

2020-11-25

$蔚来(NIO)$我不知道我有没有拉仇恨

2020-06-09

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 一切都在意料之中！触及1705迅速下跌。目前空单已经布局。目标1687

04-11

$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$ 事关你我！！！浅谈美国为何不加息了！ [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] 美国加息，在美国存钱利润回报高，所以全世界热钱都往美国跑。钱都跑去美国了，除了美国全世界都缺钱了，手是中国楼市股市双杀，外贸不振。而美国要支付高额利益，债务爆表雪上加霜。现状是中国资金外流，经济承压。美国还债压力山大。如果美国先把中国经济拉爆了，就能饕餮中国的资产，奶活自己，再次伟大。如果中国扛住了，美国先顶不住还债压力降息，资金流出°，中国经济就复活了。所以希望各位无论多难受，咬牙坚持，等美国顶不住降息，好日子就来了

04-11

$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$ 我现在听到3战就烦大周期切换黄金都是5倍起步，10倍不多，现在才哪到哪真打仗了黄金未必会涨黄金大周期横盘了十几年是不是给你们全球货币没滥发的错觉了黄金上涨就一个逻辑假设我知道接下来10年美元贬值3成起步，腰斩不多那在不知道未来发展风口的情况下怎么保证财富不缩水当然是先抢占黄金这个稳定位然后慢慢往风口资产上去挪！

2021-05-17

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 黄金到顶了，满仓做空

2020-06-09

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 继续空他嘛接受不了亏损就远离，好好找个安稳的工作上班得了！自己没足够的风险承担能力就玩？还有评论区的也不知道你们酸什么？[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] 另外本人不做震荡。只做趋势

2020-05-29

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 大起大落黄金空单夹缝求生！！！[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2020-11-08

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 我骄傲了吗？

2020-06-03

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ [开心] [开心] [开心] 终于解套

2020-04-14

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$准备满仓做多！！结婚就靠你了！！！！开宾利还是自行车

2020-06-08

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ v型反转。上方阻力1705。短线布局多单。阻力位左右均可做空

2020-06-03

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 原油抄底成功黄金空单还在被套。[微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2020-06-01

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 尼玛！操！我被黄金盘了

2020-11-12

我骄傲了吗？

2021-05-12

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 我骄傲了吗？喷子请开始你的表演

2021-04-01

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ ？？？？抄底了！狗屎黄金

2020-07-23

废话那么多！！！中美关系影响最为严重！

金价银价飙涨，还会继续涨吗？现在能上车吗？

2022-09-06

$WTI原油主连 2210(CLmain)$黄金1717做空是否可以盈利？

2022-05-03

$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$ 没什么意思

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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我一直以为我家老太太糊涂了呢。原来是我信息茧房。","listText":"家有长辈90岁，眼不花耳不聋。老知识分子喜欢看中文国际频道。是我们家定海神针一样的存在 我问老太太买不买黄金？老太太反问我有没有渠道买铜。 我一直以为我家老太太糊涂了呢。原来是我信息茧房。","text":"家有长辈90岁，眼不花耳不聋。老知识分子喜欢看中文国际频道。是我们家定海神针一样的存在 我问老太太买不买黄金？老太太反问我有没有渠道买铜。 我一直以为我家老太太糊涂了呢。原来是我信息茧房。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293976054522016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":293784745459832,"gmtCreate":1712730401793,"gmtModify":1712730940399,"author":{"id":"3546853076001702","authorId":"3546853076001702","authorIdStr":"3546853076001702","name":"少年赌客1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab347a4489ff2439942575c371abd40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a> 平了一半的金子仓位，从1900一路加仓上来！准备回来加仓A股，明年年初就差不多能上3000美元了。 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08:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"金价银价飙涨，还会继续涨吗？现在能上车吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133971624","media":"苏宁金融研究院","summary":"在市场激烈地讨论“A股是否还在牛市”的声浪中，黄金和白银双双走出了令人瞩目的行情——国际黄金价格突破1850美元/盎司的关口，创下接近9年来的新高；国际白银价格最近4个交易日涨幅接近20%，价格逼近2","content":"<p>在市场激烈地讨论“A股是否还在牛市”的声浪中，黄金和白银双双走出了令人瞩目的行情——国际黄金价格突破1850美元/盎司的关口，创下接近9年来的新高；国际白银价格最近4个交易日涨幅接近20%，价格逼近23美元，创下了接近7年来的新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c397d0aa3fa60808810f2ca7e9e6d52\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"413\"></p>\n<p>或许，很多投资者之前并未关注到黄金和白银的投资机会，等到发现时，才有相见恨晚的缺憾感。历史早已无法改变，当前值不值得买才是我们最需要思考的问题，而逻辑推演是投资决策的主要依据。</p>\n<p><b>黄金牛市的动力是什么？</b></p>\n<p>拉长周期来看，黄金的牛市早已启动，自2019年4月份以来，国际金价上涨超过45%（见表1），远超同期上证综指和深证成指的涨幅，且一路走来逻辑清晰、趋势明确，只在今年3月份爆发全球流动性危机时遭到恐慌性抛售（我们分析认为流动性危机是黄金的短期扰动因素，详见《黄金暴跌背后的流动性隐忧》）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e793ee023e85d039acd9bf708cd53617\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"148\"></p>\n<p>行至当前，支撑黄金牛市的动力是什么，未来是否仍将存在？</p>\n<p><b>1、天量流动性推动资产价格上升</b></p>\n<p>今年以来，新冠疫情在全球范围内扩散，加速恶化了全球经济的下行趋势。因疫情控制及时、经济复苏超预期，中国的货币政策相对克制，央行的资产负债表规模保持在36万亿左右。但为了刺激各国经济，全球其他主要央行向市场投放大量基础货币（见图2），并通过信用扩张衍生出更多的信贷（见图3）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcac40940deaab19eb15223d60c64ea9\" tg-width=\"586\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2943ac084bd555e7bf40f2c124e66b87\" tg-width=\"580\" tg-height=\"407\"></p>\n<p>相较于货币供应的快速增长，黄金的供给极为平稳。从2010年-2019年，全球黄金每年的供给量基本稳定在4300吨至4800吨，而今年受到疫情影响，多个主要产金国出台了严格的停工停产措施，一季度黄金的供应量仅为1066.3吨。<b>泛滥的流动性下，快速增加的过剩资金追逐有限的资产，将会使得大部分资产出现上涨，这也是当前大宗商品、股市集体上扬的关键因素。</b></p>\n<p>目前来看，全球并未放慢直升机撒钱的速度，美联储不断扩大资产购买的范围和力度，欧盟各国也达成了历史上最大规模的一揽子财政计划，包括1.074万亿欧元的欧盟预算和7500亿欧元的新冠“复苏基金”。<b>在全球新冠疫情没有得到有效控制、经济从泥潭中走出之前，预计全球的流动性不会出现紧缩，而这将极大地推升黄金的定价。</b></p>\n<p><b>2、通胀预期已成市场共识</b></p>\n<p>当前美国各期限国债收益率均处于历史最低位水平，10年期国债收益率基本维持在0.6%左右，且从美联储点阵图来看，当前的低利率有望延续到2022年底。随着原油价格的快速反弹，大宗商品的持续走高，且受新冠疫情及全球各地不同自然灾害的影响（蝗灾、蛾灾、水灾、地震等），全球粮食结构性短缺的可能性加大，全球粮价有较强的上涨预期，因此通胀的预期持续走高。从美国10年期国债收益率测算出的结果来看（见图4），通胀预期已从3月份的0.5%快速回升至当前的1.5%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8eb0045577846b22241667d738bad3\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"411\"></p>\n<p>名义利率在低位徘徊，通胀预期不断走高，实际收益率水平将持续下降，国债等资产的配置价值不断弱化，而不生息的黄金资产具有了极高的性价比。与此同时，当前的美国通胀预期距离美联储2%的目标仍有一定距离，而<b>在全球物价上行趋势明朗的情况下，通胀预计将会进一步抬升，进而加大了黄金的配置价值。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、全球货币的共同贬值</b></p>\n<p>从长期来看，黄金价格与美元指数具有极强的负相关性，也就是说，美元指数走强，黄金价格大概率走低，美元指数走弱，黄金价格大概率上扬。今年一季度以前，风险事件频发、流动性变化等短期因素是影响黄金价格的主导，而像美元指数这样的长期因素则被淡化，故而出现了美元指数与黄金价格走势同向的小概率事件。但是在美元仍为全球硬通货的情况下，美元与黄金的相关关系难以发生改变。</p>\n<p>自美元流动性危机逐步缓解之后，美元指数进入了下行通道（见图5）。虽然在美国大选之前，美元有维持强势的动力，但在美国优先的大政策背景下，美元的逆全球化趋势已经初现端倪；且美国的疫情控制远远不如中国、欧洲、日本等地区，经济复苏将会受到疫情的掣肘，美元的强势程度将会减弱，因此，<b>美元指数进入下行通道已是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b1fa68634c6a7cdda75f29a35f1818c\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"407\"></p>\n<p>但是从另一个角度来讲，美元指数代表的是美元相对于其他一揽子货币的相对强弱指标，而在当前全球大规模撒钱的背景下，会造成全球货币同时出现信用贬值，而代表货币相对强度的汇率或美元指数难以体现这一整体的信用下沉。因此，<b>在美元指数下行的背景下，美元价值的绝对信用走弱，将会进一步刺激黄金价格。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、其他因素</b></p>\n<p>2020年一季度黄金供给收缩3.8%，而总需求上涨1.9%，其中黄金ETF投资需求同比增加594.4%，占全球黄金总需求的比重达27.5%，成为了影响黄金总需求的重要因素。随着黄金价格的进一步走高，投资需求将会进入良性增加的大循环，因此黄金未来需求的增量可重点关注投资需求。</p>\n<p>2020年风险事件频频发生，诸如中美摩擦、新冠疫情等事件仍未释缓，且在美国大选尘埃落定之前，黑天鹅事件突发的可能性仍然较大，而黄金的避险属性亦将持续地支撑黄金的短期价格。</p>\n<p>因此，综合来看，<b>在流动性持续泛滥、通胀预期不断上升、美元指数大概率下行的大背景下，目前黄金仍然具有投资价值，黄金的牛市仍在进行中。</b></p>\n<p><b>白银的超额预期</b></p>\n<p>不同于黄金，白银的工业属性较强，工业制造需求占白银总需求的比重在50%以上，但从历史回归来看，金融属性对白银价格起主导作用。</p>\n<p>长期来看，白银价格走势与黄金走势极为相似，基本同涨同跌。今年一季度之前，黄金价格持续走高，但白银却没有紧随其后，金银价格比创出历史新高（见图6）。自1975年以来，金银价格比值大概率处于40-80 之间，在今年3月18日达到历史最高点124后，已开始均值回归，也就是白银的涨幅大幅超过黄金（详见《牛市降临，三季度资产配置攻略》）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05cb321db9820f2f7c905013ee25d690\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"409\"></p>\n<p>因此，若黄金价格有望继续向上突破，白银亦将大概率跟随，共同享受贵金属的β收益。而从当前来看，金银价格比均值回归的趋势短期内难以改变，金银价格比有望继续下行，从而扩大白银的α收益。故而，<b>未来一段时间，白银相较黄金出现超额收益仍将是大概率事件。</b></p>","source":"lsy1568689437122","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>金价银价飙涨，还会继续涨吗？现在能上车吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n金价银价飙涨，还会继续涨吗？现在能上车吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-23 08:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/caoqkrrc_dElLVzWgD7M0w><strong>苏宁金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在市场激烈地讨论“A股是否还在牛市”的声浪中，黄金和白银双双走出了令人瞩目的行情——国际黄金价格突破1850美元/盎司的关口，创下接近9年来的新高；国际白银价格最近4个交易日涨幅接近20%，价格逼近23美元，创下了接近7年来的新高。\n\n或许，很多投资者之前并未关注到黄金和白银的投资机会，等到发现时，才有相见恨晚的缺憾感。历史早已无法改变，当前值不值得买才是我们最需要思考的问题，而逻辑推演是投资决策...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/caoqkrrc_dElLVzWgD7M0w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dad5a12b65c234b081e7f97787ee3c8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/caoqkrrc_dElLVzWgD7M0w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133971624","content_text":"在市场激烈地讨论“A股是否还在牛市”的声浪中，黄金和白银双双走出了令人瞩目的行情——国际黄金价格突破1850美元/盎司的关口，创下接近9年来的新高；国际白银价格最近4个交易日涨幅接近20%，价格逼近23美元，创下了接近7年来的新高。\n\n或许，很多投资者之前并未关注到黄金和白银的投资机会，等到发现时，才有相见恨晚的缺憾感。历史早已无法改变，当前值不值得买才是我们最需要思考的问题，而逻辑推演是投资决策的主要依据。\n黄金牛市的动力是什么？\n拉长周期来看，黄金的牛市早已启动，自2019年4月份以来，国际金价上涨超过45%（见表1），远超同期上证综指和深证成指的涨幅，且一路走来逻辑清晰、趋势明确，只在今年3月份爆发全球流动性危机时遭到恐慌性抛售（我们分析认为流动性危机是黄金的短期扰动因素，详见《黄金暴跌背后的流动性隐忧》）。\n\n行至当前，支撑黄金牛市的动力是什么，未来是否仍将存在？\n1、天量流动性推动资产价格上升\n今年以来，新冠疫情在全球范围内扩散，加速恶化了全球经济的下行趋势。因疫情控制及时、经济复苏超预期，中国的货币政策相对克制，央行的资产负债表规模保持在36万亿左右。但为了刺激各国经济，全球其他主要央行向市场投放大量基础货币（见图2），并通过信用扩张衍生出更多的信贷（见图3）。\n\n\n相较于货币供应的快速增长，黄金的供给极为平稳。从2010年-2019年，全球黄金每年的供给量基本稳定在4300吨至4800吨，而今年受到疫情影响，多个主要产金国出台了严格的停工停产措施，一季度黄金的供应量仅为1066.3吨。泛滥的流动性下，快速增加的过剩资金追逐有限的资产，将会使得大部分资产出现上涨，这也是当前大宗商品、股市集体上扬的关键因素。\n目前来看，全球并未放慢直升机撒钱的速度，美联储不断扩大资产购买的范围和力度，欧盟各国也达成了历史上最大规模的一揽子财政计划，包括1.074万亿欧元的欧盟预算和7500亿欧元的新冠“复苏基金”。在全球新冠疫情没有得到有效控制、经济从泥潭中走出之前，预计全球的流动性不会出现紧缩，而这将极大地推升黄金的定价。\n2、通胀预期已成市场共识\n当前美国各期限国债收益率均处于历史最低位水平，10年期国债收益率基本维持在0.6%左右，且从美联储点阵图来看，当前的低利率有望延续到2022年底。随着原油价格的快速反弹，大宗商品的持续走高，且受新冠疫情及全球各地不同自然灾害的影响（蝗灾、蛾灾、水灾、地震等），全球粮食结构性短缺的可能性加大，全球粮价有较强的上涨预期，因此通胀的预期持续走高。从美国10年期国债收益率测算出的结果来看（见图4），通胀预期已从3月份的0.5%快速回升至当前的1.5%。\n\n名义利率在低位徘徊，通胀预期不断走高，实际收益率水平将持续下降，国债等资产的配置价值不断弱化，而不生息的黄金资产具有了极高的性价比。与此同时，当前的美国通胀预期距离美联储2%的目标仍有一定距离，而在全球物价上行趋势明朗的情况下，通胀预计将会进一步抬升，进而加大了黄金的配置价值。\n3、全球货币的共同贬值\n从长期来看，黄金价格与美元指数具有极强的负相关性，也就是说，美元指数走强，黄金价格大概率走低，美元指数走弱，黄金价格大概率上扬。今年一季度以前，风险事件频发、流动性变化等短期因素是影响黄金价格的主导，而像美元指数这样的长期因素则被淡化，故而出现了美元指数与黄金价格走势同向的小概率事件。但是在美元仍为全球硬通货的情况下，美元与黄金的相关关系难以发生改变。\n自美元流动性危机逐步缓解之后，美元指数进入了下行通道（见图5）。虽然在美国大选之前，美元有维持强势的动力，但在美国优先的大政策背景下，美元的逆全球化趋势已经初现端倪；且美国的疫情控制远远不如中国、欧洲、日本等地区，经济复苏将会受到疫情的掣肘，美元的强势程度将会减弱，因此，美元指数进入下行通道已是大概率事件。\n\n但是从另一个角度来讲，美元指数代表的是美元相对于其他一揽子货币的相对强弱指标，而在当前全球大规模撒钱的背景下，会造成全球货币同时出现信用贬值，而代表货币相对强度的汇率或美元指数难以体现这一整体的信用下沉。因此，在美元指数下行的背景下，美元价值的绝对信用走弱，将会进一步刺激黄金价格。\n4、其他因素\n2020年一季度黄金供给收缩3.8%，而总需求上涨1.9%，其中黄金ETF投资需求同比增加594.4%，占全球黄金总需求的比重达27.5%，成为了影响黄金总需求的重要因素。随着黄金价格的进一步走高，投资需求将会进入良性增加的大循环，因此黄金未来需求的增量可重点关注投资需求。\n2020年风险事件频频发生，诸如中美摩擦、新冠疫情等事件仍未释缓，且在美国大选尘埃落定之前，黑天鹅事件突发的可能性仍然较大，而黄金的避险属性亦将持续地支撑黄金的短期价格。\n因此，综合来看，在流动性持续泛滥、通胀预期不断上升、美元指数大概率下行的大背景下，目前黄金仍然具有投资价值，黄金的牛市仍在进行中。\n白银的超额预期\n不同于黄金，白银的工业属性较强，工业制造需求占白银总需求的比重在50%以上，但从历史回归来看，金融属性对白银价格起主导作用。\n长期来看，白银价格走势与黄金走势极为相似，基本同涨同跌。今年一季度之前，黄金价格持续走高，但白银却没有紧随其后，金银价格比创出历史新高（见图6）。自1975年以来，金银价格比值大概率处于40-80 之间，在今年3月18日达到历史最高点124后，已开始均值回归，也就是白银的涨幅大幅超过黄金（详见《牛市降临，三季度资产配置攻略》）。\n\n因此，若黄金价格有望继续向上突破，白银亦将大概率跟随，共同享受贵金属的β收益。而从当前来看，金银价格比均值回归的趋势短期内难以改变，金银价格比有望继续下行，从而扩大白银的α收益。故而，未来一段时间，白银相较黄金出现超额收益仍将是大概率事件。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669213957,"gmtCreate":1662450549380,"gmtModify":1662450550597,"author":{"id":"3546853076001702","authorId":"3546853076001702","authorIdStr":"3546853076001702","name":"少年赌客1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab347a4489ff2439942575c371abd40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2210(CLmain)$</a>黄金1717做空是否可以盈利？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2210(CLmain)$</a>黄金1717做空是否可以盈利？","text":"$WTI原油主连 2210(CLmain)$黄金1717做空是否可以盈利？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669213957","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":616131987,"gmtCreate":1651557584166,"gmtModify":1651557584166,"author":{"id":"3546853076001702","authorId":"3546853076001702","authorIdStr":"3546853076001702","name":"少年赌客1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eab347a4489ff2439942575c371abd40","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a>没什么意思","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$&nbsp;</a>没什么意思","text":"$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$ 没什么意思","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01c09ca0370d291c9b429d78ca821f2","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/616131987","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}