华尔街之吧的个人主页 - 老虎社区

华尔街之吧

华尔街之吧

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IP属地：四川

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2主题

0勋章

华尔街之吧

10-04

$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 诱空反正会上去的！

华尔街之吧

08-15

他买的大厂的基本已经很便宜了

华尔街之吧

08-15

香港股市就是坨谢特

资金从高处流下，港股只欠催化

华尔街之吧

06-04

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 毫无价值

华尔街之吧

05-15

$Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 轧空啦

华尔街之吧

05-11

$(HSTECH)$ 长期看多

华尔街之吧

01-15

现在饿了吗市场越来越小怎么不可能

华尔街之吧

2022-07-26

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$加息过后预期上涨

华尔街之吧

2022-07-26

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$对纳斯达克(.IXIC)表态看多看空

华尔街之吧

2021-02-02

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 空开始

华尔街之吧

2021-02-02

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$看来得走人了

华尔街之吧

2021-01-04

$景顺抵押资本(IVR)$孽障。还不速速升上去

华尔街之吧

2020-10-10

$AAL 20210115 20.0 CALL(AAL)$被戏耍了一次

华尔街之吧

2020-10-10

$AAL 20210115 20.0 CALL(AAL)$被戏耍了一次

华尔街之吧

2020-10-05

选特朗普

抱歉，原内容已删除

华尔街之吧

2020-10-02

$AAL 20210115 20.0 CALL(AAL)$造孽啊

华尔街之吧

2020-09-26

$美国航空(AAL)$$波音(BA)$$甲骨文(ORCL)$下周要起飞了吗

华尔街之吧

2020-09-20

$美国航空(AAL)$单车变摩托时刻

华尔街之吧

2020-09-20

$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$还好我早时日逃离。差点被割

华尔街之吧

2020-09-16

$美国航空(AAL)$期权被磨死了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;诱空反正会上去的！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$&nbsp;</a> &nbsp;诱空反正会上去的！","text":"$三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion(YINN)$ 诱空反正会上去的！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356543912571160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338849173827936,"gmtCreate":1723731009199,"gmtModify":1723731011336,"author":{"id":"3545228092363147","authorId":"3545228092363147","name":"华尔街之吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0c61175b3eb317ebf8b952a45bf3c7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3545228092363147","idStr":"3545228092363147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他买的大厂的 基本已经很便宜了","listText":"他买的大厂的 基本已经很便宜了","text":"他买的大厂的 基本已经很便宜了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338849173827936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338724677689616,"gmtCreate":1723700679281,"gmtModify":1723700681292,"author":{"id":"3545228092363147","authorId":"3545228092363147","name":"华尔街之吧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd0c61175b3eb317ebf8b952a45bf3c7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3545228092363147","idStr":"3545228092363147"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"香港股市就是坨谢特","listText":"香港股市就是坨谢特","text":"香港股市就是坨谢特","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338724677689616","repostId":"1108436580","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108436580","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1723634136,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108436580?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-14 19:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"资金从高处流下，港股只欠催化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108436580","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"据统计，7月15日至8月2日，南非大股东三周内共减持29.3亿港元左右。潜在的催化剂因素也不少，例如9月份阿里有进港股通的可能性、近3个月南向资金共流入港股1500亿、投日股的资金从高处流下估值低处，在这些因素的合并下，正是港股抓住恢复合理定价的好时机。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在日股和美股的巨幅波动下，终结了套息交易产生的流动性危机，即使过去8年里，借日元的规模有多少难以统计，但恐慌至少是告一段落了。</p><p>由于中国资产在外资配置里属于低配，所以上周A/H股受到的影响有限。</p><p><strong>不过，正因为这次套息交易的暴力清杠杆，加上美国经济数据走弱，让不少资金意识到接下来的持仓不能过于拥挤，否则就像这次英伟达连带日股爆杠杆一样，套息交易今年前7个月都是赚钱的，但当流动性危机发生时，短短一天内也能回吐掉所有涨幅。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be0135658b626e3fe9f600013bb1916\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"590\"/></p><p><strong>换句话说，在这轮流动性危机发生后，市场的旧有交易模式出现了动摇，不再敢过于集中拥挤交易，这也给低估值的资产重新被关注的机会，例如已经回调近3个月的恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）。</strong></p><p>在亚洲市场，日股跟港股存在一定跷跷板，争夺流入资金的关系，现在部分资金不再像之前一样高配日股，从日本市场流出的资金自然会关注到跷跷板另一端的港股，而港股当中，互联网股中的低估值+积极股东回报方案，无疑成为了流入资金的第一选择。   </p><p><strong>一、估值差扩大产生的机会</strong></p><p><strong>在5月份港股大涨20%后，恒生指数的市盈率为9倍PE，而日经225指数的市盈率为16倍PE。直到现在，日经225指数的市盈率为20倍PE，恒生指数仅为8倍PE，港股和日股的估值差要比5月份时更加大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072082ee439bc4976866a8270c45d11b\" alt=\"（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）\" title=\"（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/><span>（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）</span></p><p>若以市场上最热门交易的品种估值来对比，即使最近日股芯片股暴跌30%，平均PE仍然有30倍，而港股的定海神针腾讯对应明年估值才13倍PE另加千亿回购+每年稳定的增长。因此，全球资金拆仓后，资金重新重视投资风险，从估值上看，无论是整体市场还是个股估值，显然港股的恒生科技要比日经225更具吸引力。</p><p>在估值差越来越大的同时，日股的拥挤程度也是个关键点。  </p><p>投资界有一句名言：「人多的地方不要去」，尤其是当过去的交易逻辑在未来有机会被逆转。而现在就刚好处于这临界点，美国大选不确定性+美国减息+日本加息，也是促发这次全球拆仓潮的主要原因。</p><p>而根据中金统计，EPFR各类主动基金对于中资股的配置比例从2020年10月的14.6%高点降低至6月底的5.5%，已是历史新低。</p><p><strong>因此，即使未来拆仓潮再出现，被极度低配的中资股也是安全之地。相反，在这种环境下，如果边际因素有稍微积极的变化，上涨空间可能极大，并且很快，4-5月份时的大涨行情就是如此。</strong></p><p><strong>那么，港股的估值和赔率都合适了，现在就是欠一个催化剂，基本面的逆转。</strong></p><p>若美联储在9月份顺利降息，那就有利于人民币升值，从而为国内利率打开更多的空间。如果政策可以借此机会持续发力的话，将给后续资金流入和市场反弹带来更多的支撑。</p><p>参考4-5月份港股的大涨，考虑到过程中的持股体验，用指数ETF的方式介入，可以说完全不逊色于指数内的大部分权重股。比方说，恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）涨超23%，与指数内弹性最大的美团，涨幅相差不多。    </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f2713d3fd8dcb567a87d888cb65342\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p><p><strong>二、足够低估且赔率高的恒生科技</strong></p><p>虽然过去2年里，整体看恒生科技的回报并不好，但每年都有2-3次大涨的行情，而投资恒生科技最重要的是抓住市场发生转变的时机。</p><p><strong>从恒生科技成分股拆分来看，现阶段用ETF的方式介入会更加合适，因为近期拖累恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）下跌的两个因素都在扭转，现在恰好是个好的交易机会。</strong></p><p>1、前十大重仓股占指数的69%，其中前6大持仓股，腾讯、美团、小米、阿里、京东、快手都有明确的回购计划，但7-8月份是港股披露业绩前的回购静默期，在这阶段里公司不得进行回购，这就让股价下行压力加大。   </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826af651b9d28533a5effe13929193bc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p><strong>所以能看到，以腾讯为首的指数重仓股进入回购静默期后，近一个月恒生科技的走势是比可回购阶段要弱的。不过，近两周内互联网股披露业绩后将恢复回购，这对投资者来说是个不错的介入时间点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98454ce4d247c092f93be9ff9784ded\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><p>从个股来看，最大重仓股的腾讯，作为恒生科技的龙头，近3个月是没怎么跌的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142ce3e6355d7d567019f551cf470024\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>过往2年里，腾讯每当进入回购静默期后，期间表现是比较差的。</p><p>但目前腾讯即使是在回购静默期内，南非大股东的减持数量对股价也没影响，单靠南向资金的流入就已经碾压了南非大股东的减持量。</p><p>据统计，7月15日至8月2日，南非大股东三周内共减持29.3亿港元左右。而近20天内，南向资金净流入腾讯154亿港元。</p><p><strong>南向资金持有腾讯的比例也从3月份的8.8%上升至10%，在近几个月调整的过程中，南向资金是在趁机加仓腾讯的，资金看好的态度毋庸置疑。那接下来腾讯发业绩恢复回购后，两个大买家，腾讯回购+南向资金，能为恒生科技提供有力的支撑，股价上行的概率要更加大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903b1e2f555a96cd7d6463bb360bd701\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"181\"/></p><p>再看到重仓股的理想汽车，这是近3个月里跌的最多的一只重仓股，期间跌逾30%。</p><p>但在这轮大跌后，估值较5月份的25倍PE有很大消化，目前PE为13倍PE。而7月份，理想的交付量也重回5万辆，基本面有所好转，现阶段再往下跌的空间也十分有限，往上看的赔率空间也十分可观。   </p><p>所以，在最大拖累个股杀完估值后，接下来恒生科技向上的压力也越来越小，互联网股业绩后的回购也将带来更大的向上动力，这就与4月份行情启动前的条件一样，只差些许边际上的变化就能开启新一轮的行情。</p><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>整体而言，无论是从估值，还是从股东回报上看，现阶段的恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）比今年4月份大涨前更加值得配置。</p><p>潜在的催化剂因素也不少，例如9月份阿里有进港股通的可能性、近3个月南向资金共流入港股1500亿、投日股的资金从高处流下估值低处，在这些因素的合并下，正是港股抓住恢复合理定价的好时机。   </p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>资金从高处流下，港股只欠催化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n资金从高处流下，港股只欠催化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-14 19:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>在日股和美股的巨幅波动下，终结了套息交易产生的流动性危机，即使过去8年里，借日元的规模有多少难以统计，但恐慌至少是告一段落了。</p><p>由于中国资产在外资配置里属于低配，所以上周A/H股受到的影响有限。</p><p><strong>不过，正因为这次套息交易的暴力清杠杆，加上美国经济数据走弱，让不少资金意识到接下来的持仓不能过于拥挤，否则就像这次英伟达连带日股爆杠杆一样，套息交易今年前7个月都是赚钱的，但当流动性危机发生时，短短一天内也能回吐掉所有涨幅。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be0135658b626e3fe9f600013bb1916\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"590\"/></p><p><strong>换句话说，在这轮流动性危机发生后，市场的旧有交易模式出现了动摇，不再敢过于集中拥挤交易，这也给低估值的资产重新被关注的机会，例如已经回调近3个月的恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）。</strong></p><p>在亚洲市场，日股跟港股存在一定跷跷板，争夺流入资金的关系，现在部分资金不再像之前一样高配日股，从日本市场流出的资金自然会关注到跷跷板另一端的港股，而港股当中，互联网股中的低估值+积极股东回报方案，无疑成为了流入资金的第一选择。   </p><p><strong>一、估值差扩大产生的机会</strong></p><p><strong>在5月份港股大涨20%后，恒生指数的市盈率为9倍PE，而日经225指数的市盈率为16倍PE。直到现在，日经225指数的市盈率为20倍PE，恒生指数仅为8倍PE，港股和日股的估值差要比5月份时更加大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072082ee439bc4976866a8270c45d11b\" alt=\"（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）\" title=\"（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/><span>（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）</span></p><p>若以市场上最热门交易的品种估值来对比，即使最近日股芯片股暴跌30%，平均PE仍然有30倍，而港股的定海神针腾讯对应明年估值才13倍PE另加千亿回购+每年稳定的增长。因此，全球资金拆仓后，资金重新重视投资风险，从估值上看，无论是整体市场还是个股估值，显然港股的恒生科技要比日经225更具吸引力。</p><p>在估值差越来越大的同时，日股的拥挤程度也是个关键点。  </p><p>投资界有一句名言：「人多的地方不要去」，尤其是当过去的交易逻辑在未来有机会被逆转。而现在就刚好处于这临界点，美国大选不确定性+美国减息+日本加息，也是促发这次全球拆仓潮的主要原因。</p><p>而根据中金统计，EPFR各类主动基金对于中资股的配置比例从2020年10月的14.6%高点降低至6月底的5.5%，已是历史新低。</p><p><strong>因此，即使未来拆仓潮再出现，被极度低配的中资股也是安全之地。相反，在这种环境下，如果边际因素有稍微积极的变化，上涨空间可能极大，并且很快，4-5月份时的大涨行情就是如此。</strong></p><p><strong>那么，港股的估值和赔率都合适了，现在就是欠一个催化剂，基本面的逆转。</strong></p><p>若美联储在9月份顺利降息，那就有利于人民币升值，从而为国内利率打开更多的空间。如果政策可以借此机会持续发力的话，将给后续资金流入和市场反弹带来更多的支撑。</p><p>参考4-5月份港股的大涨，考虑到过程中的持股体验，用指数ETF的方式介入，可以说完全不逊色于指数内的大部分权重股。比方说，恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）涨超23%，与指数内弹性最大的美团，涨幅相差不多。    </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f2713d3fd8dcb567a87d888cb65342\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p><p><strong>二、足够低估且赔率高的恒生科技</strong></p><p>虽然过去2年里，整体看恒生科技的回报并不好，但每年都有2-3次大涨的行情，而投资恒生科技最重要的是抓住市场发生转变的时机。</p><p><strong>从恒生科技成分股拆分来看，现阶段用ETF的方式介入会更加合适，因为近期拖累恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）下跌的两个因素都在扭转，现在恰好是个好的交易机会。</strong></p><p>1、前十大重仓股占指数的69%，其中前6大持仓股，腾讯、美团、小米、阿里、京东、快手都有明确的回购计划，但7-8月份是港股披露业绩前的回购静默期，在这阶段里公司不得进行回购，这就让股价下行压力加大。   </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/826af651b9d28533a5effe13929193bc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"845\"/></p><p><strong>所以能看到，以腾讯为首的指数重仓股进入回购静默期后，近一个月恒生科技的走势是比可回购阶段要弱的。不过，近两周内互联网股披露业绩后将恢复回购，这对投资者来说是个不错的介入时间点。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98454ce4d247c092f93be9ff9784ded\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><p>从个股来看，最大重仓股的腾讯，作为恒生科技的龙头，近3个月是没怎么跌的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/142ce3e6355d7d567019f551cf470024\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>过往2年里，腾讯每当进入回购静默期后，期间表现是比较差的。</p><p>但目前腾讯即使是在回购静默期内，南非大股东的减持数量对股价也没影响，单靠南向资金的流入就已经碾压了南非大股东的减持量。</p><p>据统计，7月15日至8月2日，南非大股东三周内共减持29.3亿港元左右。而近20天内，南向资金净流入腾讯154亿港元。</p><p><strong>南向资金持有腾讯的比例也从3月份的8.8%上升至10%，在近几个月调整的过程中，南向资金是在趁机加仓腾讯的，资金看好的态度毋庸置疑。那接下来腾讯发业绩恢复回购后，两个大买家，腾讯回购+南向资金，能为恒生科技提供有力的支撑，股价上行的概率要更加大。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903b1e2f555a96cd7d6463bb360bd701\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"181\"/></p><p>再看到重仓股的理想汽车，这是近3个月里跌的最多的一只重仓股，期间跌逾30%。</p><p>但在这轮大跌后，估值较5月份的25倍PE有很大消化，目前PE为13倍PE。而7月份，理想的交付量也重回5万辆，基本面有所好转，现阶段再往下跌的空间也十分有限，往上看的赔率空间也十分可观。   </p><p>所以，在最大拖累个股杀完估值后，接下来恒生科技向上的压力也越来越小，互联网股业绩后的回购也将带来更大的向上动力，这就与4月份行情启动前的条件一样，只差些许边际上的变化就能开启新一轮的行情。</p><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>整体而言，无论是从估值，还是从股东回报上看，现阶段的恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）比今年4月份大涨前更加值得配置。</p><p>潜在的催化剂因素也不少，例如9月份阿里有进港股通的可能性、近3个月南向资金共流入港股1500亿、投日股的资金从高处流下估值低处，在这些因素的合并下，正是港股抓住恢复合理定价的好时机。   </p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108436580","content_text":"在日股和美股的巨幅波动下，终结了套息交易产生的流动性危机，即使过去8年里，借日元的规模有多少难以统计，但恐慌至少是告一段落了。由于中国资产在外资配置里属于低配，所以上周A/H股受到的影响有限。不过，正因为这次套息交易的暴力清杠杆，加上美国经济数据走弱，让不少资金意识到接下来的持仓不能过于拥挤，否则就像这次英伟达连带日股爆杠杆一样，套息交易今年前7个月都是赚钱的，但当流动性危机发生时，短短一天内也能回吐掉所有涨幅。换句话说，在这轮流动性危机发生后，市场的旧有交易模式出现了动摇，不再敢过于集中拥挤交易，这也给低估值的资产重新被关注的机会，例如已经回调近3个月的恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）。在亚洲市场，日股跟港股存在一定跷跷板，争夺流入资金的关系，现在部分资金不再像之前一样高配日股，从日本市场流出的资金自然会关注到跷跷板另一端的港股，而港股当中，互联网股中的低估值+积极股东回报方案，无疑成为了流入资金的第一选择。   一、估值差扩大产生的机会在5月份港股大涨20%后，恒生指数的市盈率为9倍PE，而日经225指数的市盈率为16倍PE。直到现在，日经225指数的市盈率为20倍PE，恒生指数仅为8倍PE，港股和日股的估值差要比5月份时更加大。（5月份大涨后的港股日股估值对比图）若以市场上最热门交易的品种估值来对比，即使最近日股芯片股暴跌30%，平均PE仍然有30倍，而港股的定海神针腾讯对应明年估值才13倍PE另加千亿回购+每年稳定的增长。因此，全球资金拆仓后，资金重新重视投资风险，从估值上看，无论是整体市场还是个股估值，显然港股的恒生科技要比日经225更具吸引力。在估值差越来越大的同时，日股的拥挤程度也是个关键点。  投资界有一句名言：「人多的地方不要去」，尤其是当过去的交易逻辑在未来有机会被逆转。而现在就刚好处于这临界点，美国大选不确定性+美国减息+日本加息，也是促发这次全球拆仓潮的主要原因。而根据中金统计，EPFR各类主动基金对于中资股的配置比例从2020年10月的14.6%高点降低至6月底的5.5%，已是历史新低。因此，即使未来拆仓潮再出现，被极度低配的中资股也是安全之地。相反，在这种环境下，如果边际因素有稍微积极的变化，上涨空间可能极大，并且很快，4-5月份时的大涨行情就是如此。那么，港股的估值和赔率都合适了，现在就是欠一个催化剂，基本面的逆转。若美联储在9月份顺利降息，那就有利于人民币升值，从而为国内利率打开更多的空间。如果政策可以借此机会持续发力的话，将给后续资金流入和市场反弹带来更多的支撑。参考4-5月份港股的大涨，考虑到过程中的持股体验，用指数ETF的方式介入，可以说完全不逊色于指数内的大部分权重股。比方说，恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）涨超23%，与指数内弹性最大的美团，涨幅相差不多。    二、足够低估且赔率高的恒生科技虽然过去2年里，整体看恒生科技的回报并不好，但每年都有2-3次大涨的行情，而投资恒生科技最重要的是抓住市场发生转变的时机。从恒生科技成分股拆分来看，现阶段用ETF的方式介入会更加合适，因为近期拖累恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）下跌的两个因素都在扭转，现在恰好是个好的交易机会。1、前十大重仓股占指数的69%，其中前6大持仓股，腾讯、美团、小米、阿里、京东、快手都有明确的回购计划，但7-8月份是港股披露业绩前的回购静默期，在这阶段里公司不得进行回购，这就让股价下行压力加大。   所以能看到，以腾讯为首的指数重仓股进入回购静默期后，近一个月恒生科技的走势是比可回购阶段要弱的。不过，近两周内互联网股披露业绩后将恢复回购，这对投资者来说是个不错的介入时间点。从个股来看，最大重仓股的腾讯，作为恒生科技的龙头，近3个月是没怎么跌的。过往2年里，腾讯每当进入回购静默期后，期间表现是比较差的。但目前腾讯即使是在回购静默期内，南非大股东的减持数量对股价也没影响，单靠南向资金的流入就已经碾压了南非大股东的减持量。据统计，7月15日至8月2日，南非大股东三周内共减持29.3亿港元左右。而近20天内，南向资金净流入腾讯154亿港元。南向资金持有腾讯的比例也从3月份的8.8%上升至10%，在近几个月调整的过程中，南向资金是在趁机加仓腾讯的，资金看好的态度毋庸置疑。那接下来腾讯发业绩恢复回购后，两个大买家，腾讯回购+南向资金，能为恒生科技提供有力的支撑，股价上行的概率要更加大。再看到重仓股的理想汽车，这是近3个月里跌的最多的一只重仓股，期间跌逾30%。但在这轮大跌后，估值较5月份的25倍PE有很大消化，目前PE为13倍PE。而7月份，理想的交付量也重回5万辆，基本面有所好转，现阶段再往下跌的空间也十分有限，往上看的赔率空间也十分可观。  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