Creazy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Creazy

Creazy

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IP属地：云南

9关注

26粉丝

5主题

0勋章

11-02

Replying to @小米死多头:[微笑]//@小米死多头:必须得是特朗普，还用猜吗？股民谁不喜欢特朗普

11-02

Replying to @科迪勒拉:特朗普不是希特勒，他是美国本土了不起的英雄，民主党阴险暗杀偷票把男人变成女人，坏事无所不能//@科迪勒拉:我感觉哈里斯将赢，也希望她赢。看了她在华盛顿的演讲后，更希望她赢，不管她将来做得怎么样，她起码表现岀了对公义的坚定追求。反观那个特朗普，妥妥的一个民粹、罪犯。

2023-08-22

$Digital Brands Group, Inc.(DBGI)$ 为什么自动卖出了？

2023-06-23

$Security Matters(SMX)$ 这个被驴踢过的公司，为什么不拉高后发行，而是以更低价发行？还要惩治恶意做空，是惩治**看高的吧！奶奶的

2023-06-23

$Security Matters(SMX)$ 一个号称增加对恶意龙头调查能力的公司居然在随后以低于现价大幅公开募股，你奶奶的奇葩，害死人了

2022-06-22

$露华浓(REV)$这是要玩几波？

2022-06-13

扯淡

盘前观察 | 比特币突遭“血洗”！基本面才是关键问题

2022-06-12

赶紧停止俄乌战争，降低交易成本，才能避免这场灾难！老年痴呆

预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？

2022-06-06

$滴滴(DIDI)$空它

2022-05-06

$触宝(CTK)$庄稼是死人哪

2022-05-06

$触宝(CTK)$还不赶紧合股，照这么跌下去，合股当天也不足1块了，尴尬了😅直接退市

2022-05-05

$Color Star Technology Co. Ltd(CSCW)$要了老爹的命了，打压

2022-04-29

$触宝(CTK)$塞塞大家此股赚了多少钱

2022-04-11

$Color Star Technology Co. Ltd(CSCW)$居然是个中概股，我怎么没看到

2022-03-21

$知乎(ZH)$盘前一帮小买单

2022-03-21

$知乎(ZH)$好猛，佩服敢做多的

2022-03-14

$金山云(KC)$怎么回事？

2022-03-09

$Camber Energy(CEI)$这要开盘跌停的节奏呀

2022-03-08

$Indonesia Energy Corp Ltd.(INDO)$涨了30倍，你赚了没？

2022-03-01

$Mullen Automotive(MULN)$韭菜长得还是挺猛，还能割一波？

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Inc.(DBGI)$&nbsp;</a>为什么自动卖出了？","text":"$Digital Brands Group, Inc.(DBGI)$ 为什么自动卖出了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/211685250846840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":190490332418096,"gmtCreate":1687531749419,"gmtModify":1687532483335,"author":{"id":"3541577273438742","authorId":"3541577273438742","name":"Creazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6f8fc862e58ccbe0c5d3647299e3d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541577273438742","authorIdStr":"3541577273438742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMX\">$Security Matters(SMX)$&nbsp;</a>这个被驴踢过的公司，为什么不拉高后发行，而是以更低价发行？还要惩治恶意做空，是惩治**看高的吧！奶奶的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMX\">$Security 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Matters(SMX)$&nbsp;</a>一个号称增加对恶意龙头调查能力的公司居然在随后以低于现价大幅公开募股，你奶奶的奇葩，害死人了","text":"$Security Matters(SMX)$ 一个号称增加对恶意龙头调查能力的公司居然在随后以低于现价大幅公开募股，你奶奶的奇葩，害死人了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190486000758832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683051760,"gmtCreate":1655905711655,"gmtModify":1704863559219,"author":{"id":"3541577273438742","authorId":"3541577273438742","name":"Creazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6f8fc862e58ccbe0c5d3647299e3d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541577273438742","authorIdStr":"3541577273438742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">$露华浓(REV)$</a>这是要玩几波？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REV\">$露华浓(REV)$</a>这是要玩几波？","text":"$露华浓(REV)$这是要玩几波？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683051760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680501125,"gmtCreate":1655126783568,"gmtModify":1704861208855,"author":{"id":"3541577273438742","authorId":"3541577273438742","name":"Creazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6f8fc862e58ccbe0c5d3647299e3d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541577273438742","authorIdStr":"3541577273438742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"扯淡","listText":"扯淡","text":"扯淡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680501125","repostId":"1152773315","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152773315","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655124355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152773315?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-13 20:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前观察 | 比特币突遭“血洗”！基本面才是关键问题","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152773315","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"本周FOMC即将公布新的利率决定，虽然市场上对于75个基点有所预期，但大概率来说鲍威尔还是加息50个基点。过去几年作为美联储主席，鲍威尔有一件事是明白了，就是利率决定之前一定要和市场充分沟通，不要做意","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周FOMC即将公布新的利率决定，虽然市场上对于75个基点有所预期，但大概率来说鲍威尔还是加息50个基点。过去几年作为美联储主席，鲍威尔有一件事是明白了，就是利率决定之前一定要和市场充分沟通，不要做意外的事情惊吓市场。</p><p>下图是标普500（白线）和FOMC会议的时间（红圈）。从最近两次FOMC会议来看，市场在FOMC利率决定出来当日大涨，甚至在FOMC利率决定之前就开始上涨。有意思的是，今年前三次FOMC利率决定出来的时候，标普500几乎都在同一水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4a8b2cbed15b272c8b65ad65a9b453\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>市场令人担忧，但更令人担忧的是加密货币，比特币盘前已经跌破$24,000，目前仍在下跌中。比特币算是加密货币中表现最好的，其它加密货币(以太坊)跌幅更大。我一直都是那个观点，一味看空或者看多加密货币，都是没有意义的行为，所以这时候跳出来喊加密货币就是泡沫也没什么价值，关键还是怎么去洞察加密货币价格后面的基本面。</p><p>下图是比特币过去7年的价格图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58a22e5fff2cf9a2946d334c50ce33d\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2017年年底比特币价格首次突破$10,000直逼$20,000之后，价格大幅回撤了80%，回到了$3,000。在回撤过程中，每一次比特币价格“看似”出现V型反弹，最后都被证明是徒劳的。比特币价格横躺在$3,000-4,000持续了3个月。</p><p>2020年年底，随着美股大幅上涨，比特币终于开启了反攻，2017年的高点在3年之后终于重新达到。也就是说，如果有人在2017年高点接了比特币，出水的时候已经是3年之后了。而在这3年之内，没人知道比特币是否还会出水。</p><p>2020年开启的这一波比特币走势，有两个方向的能量。第一个是美国机构的进入，第二个是接受加密货币的散户更多。第一个能量以Ray Dalio的言论作为标志，但是Ray Dalio最后一次关于比特币的积极看法只能追溯到2022年1月，过去5个月并没有关于比特币的任何言论，这也就预示了机构对于比特币的看法变淡。第二个能量是更多的散户对比特币看法的改变，这个看法和meme股票（GameStop）的兴起同步。Meme股票的热情虽然依旧在，但也开始变弱。下图是GameStop（白色）和比特币（蓝色）的价格曲线，有很强的相关性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a59770051da365589be49c91f63126\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这一波加密货币价格后面的两个推手都在冷却，所以我个人不认为比特币/加密货币有V型反弹的基础。炒币的群众基础在减弱的时候，价格不可能好。如果看深一点，加密货币现在存在的基本面问题，远远超过了2017年年底。</p><p>第一个问题，加密货币乱发。2017年比特币冲高之后，币圈发行的货币实在是太多了。前段时间爆掉的Luna是2019年发的。发一个股票有证监会把关，虽然不能完全杜绝骗子公司，但起码也有监管。但是加密货币发行毫无监管，就是丛林法则，想来就来想走就走。</p><p>第二个问题，币圈形成了用技术割韭菜的风气。人类发明的股票，最早可以追述到荷兰1602年。400多年过去了，就是一个简单的股票，人类对它的理解也只能说是逐步完善过程中。公司董事会和管理层，股东和管理层，股东和董事会的关系，在过去400多年也并没有一个非常完美的解决方案。一个股票人类就思考了400年还没理解透，但是币圈现在是天天出新花样，这个技术那个技术吹到了天上，玩家们都懂吗？你别看现在玩币圈的都是90后00后，这群人真的就对加密货币后面的技术和后面的经济利益吃透了？人类进化了几十万年，智力水平其实并没有怎么进化。</p><p>第三个问题，币圈的不透明。币圈后面的不透明是多方面的，包括币圈交易所的不透明，各级衍生品后面的不透明，买卖后面主体的不透明。美国的股票交易市场为什么可以成为全世界最好的股票交易市场，就是在于透明性高。基金需要定期披露持仓，公司管理层卖股票需要打报告，券商提供的杠杆需要公开。即使是美国股票交易市场如此公开透明，但有时还会出现问题。看看现在的币圈，由于没有监管介入，乱象丛生。</p><p>后面的投资主体热情在减弱，币圈自己乱象丛生，币圈要想在短期吸引到更多的投资主体，比较困难。三根阳线可能改变信仰，但也不是所有人的信仰都那么容易改变。币圈需要全面整顿，才能有更广泛市场。但问题是，仅靠行业自律行为，不靠政府出面，可能做到自己整改吗？股票市场的教训告诉我们，做不到。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察 | 比特币突遭“血洗”！基本面才是关键问题</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前观察 | 比特币突遭“血洗”！基本面才是关键问题\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-13 20:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>本周FOMC即将公布新的利率决定，虽然市场上对于75个基点有所预期，但大概率来说鲍威尔还是加息50个基点。过去几年作为美联储主席，鲍威尔有一件事是明白了，就是利率决定之前一定要和市场充分沟通，不要做意外的事情惊吓市场。</p><p>下图是标普500（白线）和FOMC会议的时间（红圈）。从最近两次FOMC会议来看，市场在FOMC利率决定出来当日大涨，甚至在FOMC利率决定之前就开始上涨。有意思的是，今年前三次FOMC利率决定出来的时候，标普500几乎都在同一水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4a8b2cbed15b272c8b65ad65a9b453\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>市场令人担忧，但更令人担忧的是加密货币，比特币盘前已经跌破$24,000，目前仍在下跌中。比特币算是加密货币中表现最好的，其它加密货币(以太坊)跌幅更大。我一直都是那个观点，一味看空或者看多加密货币，都是没有意义的行为，所以这时候跳出来喊加密货币就是泡沫也没什么价值，关键还是怎么去洞察加密货币价格后面的基本面。</p><p>下图是比特币过去7年的价格图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58a22e5fff2cf9a2946d334c50ce33d\" tg-width=\"1866\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2017年年底比特币价格首次突破$10,000直逼$20,000之后，价格大幅回撤了80%，回到了$3,000。在回撤过程中，每一次比特币价格“看似”出现V型反弹，最后都被证明是徒劳的。比特币价格横躺在$3,000-4,000持续了3个月。</p><p>2020年年底，随着美股大幅上涨，比特币终于开启了反攻，2017年的高点在3年之后终于重新达到。也就是说，如果有人在2017年高点接了比特币，出水的时候已经是3年之后了。而在这3年之内，没人知道比特币是否还会出水。</p><p>2020年开启的这一波比特币走势，有两个方向的能量。第一个是美国机构的进入，第二个是接受加密货币的散户更多。第一个能量以Ray Dalio的言论作为标志，但是Ray Dalio最后一次关于比特币的积极看法只能追溯到2022年1月，过去5个月并没有关于比特币的任何言论，这也就预示了机构对于比特币的看法变淡。第二个能量是更多的散户对比特币看法的改变，这个看法和meme股票（GameStop）的兴起同步。Meme股票的热情虽然依旧在，但也开始变弱。下图是GameStop（白色）和比特币（蓝色）的价格曲线，有很强的相关性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a59770051da365589be49c91f63126\" tg-width=\"1599\" tg-height=\"813\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这一波加密货币价格后面的两个推手都在冷却，所以我个人不认为比特币/加密货币有V型反弹的基础。炒币的群众基础在减弱的时候，价格不可能好。如果看深一点，加密货币现在存在的基本面问题，远远超过了2017年年底。</p><p>第一个问题，加密货币乱发。2017年比特币冲高之后，币圈发行的货币实在是太多了。前段时间爆掉的Luna是2019年发的。发一个股票有证监会把关，虽然不能完全杜绝骗子公司，但起码也有监管。但是加密货币发行毫无监管，就是丛林法则，想来就来想走就走。</p><p>第二个问题，币圈形成了用技术割韭菜的风气。人类发明的股票，最早可以追述到荷兰1602年。400多年过去了，就是一个简单的股票，人类对它的理解也只能说是逐步完善过程中。公司董事会和管理层，股东和管理层，股东和董事会的关系，在过去400多年也并没有一个非常完美的解决方案。一个股票人类就思考了400年还没理解透，但是币圈现在是天天出新花样，这个技术那个技术吹到了天上，玩家们都懂吗？你别看现在玩币圈的都是90后00后，这群人真的就对加密货币后面的技术和后面的经济利益吃透了？人类进化了几十万年，智力水平其实并没有怎么进化。</p><p>第三个问题，币圈的不透明。币圈后面的不透明是多方面的，包括币圈交易所的不透明，各级衍生品后面的不透明，买卖后面主体的不透明。美国的股票交易市场为什么可以成为全世界最好的股票交易市场，就是在于透明性高。基金需要定期披露持仓，公司管理层卖股票需要打报告，券商提供的杠杆需要公开。即使是美国股票交易市场如此公开透明，但有时还会出现问题。看看现在的币圈，由于没有监管介入，乱象丛生。</p><p>后面的投资主体热情在减弱，币圈自己乱象丛生，币圈要想在短期吸引到更多的投资主体，比较困难。三根阳线可能改变信仰，但也不是所有人的信仰都那么容易改变。币圈需要全面整顿，才能有更广泛市场。但问题是，仅靠行业自律行为，不靠政府出面，可能做到自己整改吗？股票市场的教训告诉我们，做不到。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76545b6ea7eb27730ee55d40b45ce15","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152773315","content_text":"本周FOMC即将公布新的利率决定，虽然市场上对于75个基点有所预期，但大概率来说鲍威尔还是加息50个基点。过去几年作为美联储主席，鲍威尔有一件事是明白了，就是利率决定之前一定要和市场充分沟通，不要做意外的事情惊吓市场。下图是标普500（白线）和FOMC会议的时间（红圈）。从最近两次FOMC会议来看，市场在FOMC利率决定出来当日大涨，甚至在FOMC利率决定之前就开始上涨。有意思的是，今年前三次FOMC利率决定出来的时候，标普500几乎都在同一水平。市场令人担忧，但更令人担忧的是加密货币，比特币盘前已经跌破$24,000，目前仍在下跌中。比特币算是加密货币中表现最好的，其它加密货币(以太坊)跌幅更大。我一直都是那个观点，一味看空或者看多加密货币，都是没有意义的行为，所以这时候跳出来喊加密货币就是泡沫也没什么价值，关键还是怎么去洞察加密货币价格后面的基本面。下图是比特币过去7年的价格图。2017年年底比特币价格首次突破$10,000直逼$20,000之后，价格大幅回撤了80%，回到了$3,000。在回撤过程中，每一次比特币价格“看似”出现V型反弹，最后都被证明是徒劳的。比特币价格横躺在$3,000-4,000持续了3个月。2020年年底，随着美股大幅上涨，比特币终于开启了反攻，2017年的高点在3年之后终于重新达到。也就是说，如果有人在2017年高点接了比特币，出水的时候已经是3年之后了。而在这3年之内，没人知道比特币是否还会出水。2020年开启的这一波比特币走势，有两个方向的能量。第一个是美国机构的进入，第二个是接受加密货币的散户更多。第一个能量以Ray Dalio的言论作为标志，但是Ray Dalio最后一次关于比特币的积极看法只能追溯到2022年1月，过去5个月并没有关于比特币的任何言论，这也就预示了机构对于比特币的看法变淡。第二个能量是更多的散户对比特币看法的改变，这个看法和meme股票（GameStop）的兴起同步。Meme股票的热情虽然依旧在，但也开始变弱。下图是GameStop（白色）和比特币（蓝色）的价格曲线，有很强的相关性。这一波加密货币价格后面的两个推手都在冷却，所以我个人不认为比特币/加密货币有V型反弹的基础。炒币的群众基础在减弱的时候，价格不可能好。如果看深一点，加密货币现在存在的基本面问题，远远超过了2017年年底。第一个问题，加密货币乱发。2017年比特币冲高之后，币圈发行的货币实在是太多了。前段时间爆掉的Luna是2019年发的。发一个股票有证监会把关，虽然不能完全杜绝骗子公司，但起码也有监管。但是加密货币发行毫无监管，就是丛林法则，想来就来想走就走。第二个问题，币圈形成了用技术割韭菜的风气。人类发明的股票，最早可以追述到荷兰1602年。400多年过去了，就是一个简单的股票，人类对它的理解也只能说是逐步完善过程中。公司董事会和管理层，股东和管理层，股东和董事会的关系，在过去400多年也并没有一个非常完美的解决方案。一个股票人类就思考了400年还没理解透，但是币圈现在是天天出新花样，这个技术那个技术吹到了天上，玩家们都懂吗？你别看现在玩币圈的都是90后00后，这群人真的就对加密货币后面的技术和后面的经济利益吃透了？人类进化了几十万年，智力水平其实并没有怎么进化。第三个问题，币圈的不透明。币圈后面的不透明是多方面的，包括币圈交易所的不透明，各级衍生品后面的不透明，买卖后面主体的不透明。美国的股票交易市场为什么可以成为全世界最好的股票交易市场，就是在于透明性高。基金需要定期披露持仓，公司管理层卖股票需要打报告，券商提供的杠杆需要公开。即使是美国股票交易市场如此公开透明，但有时还会出现问题。看看现在的币圈，由于没有监管介入，乱象丛生。后面的投资主体热情在减弱，币圈自己乱象丛生，币圈要想在短期吸引到更多的投资主体，比较困难。三根阳线可能改变信仰，但也不是所有人的信仰都那么容易改变。币圈需要全面整顿，才能有更广泛市场。但问题是，仅靠行业自律行为，不靠政府出面，可能做到自己整改吗？股票市场的教训告诉我们，做不到。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680685370,"gmtCreate":1655003368994,"gmtModify":1704860939530,"author":{"id":"3541577273438742","authorId":"3541577273438742","name":"Creazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6f8fc862e58ccbe0c5d3647299e3d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541577273438742","authorIdStr":"3541577273438742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赶紧停止俄乌战争，降低交易成本，才能避免这场灾难！老年痴呆","listText":"赶紧停止俄乌战争，降低交易成本，才能避免这场灾难！老年痴呆","text":"赶紧停止俄乌战争，降低交易成本，才能避免这场灾难！老年痴呆","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680685370","repostId":"2242561396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242561396","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1654995603,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2242561396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-12 09:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242561396","media":"券商中国","summary":"史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金U","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。</p><p>当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。</p><p>密集的预警声</p><p>一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。</p><p>当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c125b03494885622e1099c79399ee0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>大跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌3.2%。</p><p>在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。</p><p>当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。</p><p>在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。</p><p>Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。</p><p>本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。</p><p><b>其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；</p><p>高盛集团总裁约翰·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688028\">沃尔德</a>伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。</p><p>在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。</p><p>据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。</p><p>另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）表示，在本轮周期实现软着陆的可能性几乎为零，因为过去他们每次不得不推高失业率时，最后都以衰退告终。</p><p>美国楼市的危险信号</p><p>与此同时，持续飙涨的美国楼市，也传来了危险的信号。</p><p>2022年以来，美联储激进的加息政策，正在迅速推升美国的房贷利率，美国30年房贷平均固定利率从今年初的3.1%飙升至5.1%，导致美国楼市大幅降温，新房和二手房销售量双双下滑。</p><p>据美国商务部公布的数据显示，2022年4月，美国新房的销售量环比下降16.6%，已经连续4个月下降，创2020年4月以来新低，且跌幅为9年来最大。</p><p><b>高房价、高利率，正在显著冲击火爆的美国楼市。据美国统计网站Realtor.com，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，这是数年来美国楼市库存首个“重大转折点”，感受到压力的卖家开始加速抛售套现。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8cc4f488ef4b1d8b10709c12f120ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）发布的季节性调整指数，上周的抵押贷款申请总量与前一周相比下降了6.5%（包括购买和再融资申请），这是连续第四周下降，需求量跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>在此之前，受美联储的史诗级大放水的刺激，美国房价的涨势格外凶猛，据标普<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>凯斯·席勒全国房价指数更新的最新数据显示，美国3月全国房价指数同比上涨20.6%，这也是该数据35年历史的同比增速新高。同时，凯斯-席勒的十城和二十城指数同比涨幅也达到19.5%和21.2%。</p><p>目前，全美的平均房价较2012年波底的累计涨幅，已经超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7635bf03a9b4040bc5821fe5b40b209\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国房价的另一个先行指标：木材价格也已拉响警报。据CME最新的交易数据显示，自3月初以来，美国木材价格已经腰斩。截至目前，芝加哥木材期货跌至572美元/千板尺，今年以来已累计跌去50%。</p><p>约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司指出，美国木材价格下滑，主要是因为新房需求遭到飙升的房贷利率而下降，且美国木材库存已经升至高位。</p><p>对此，全球最大的木材生产商之一Canfor表示，将延长减产计划，以解决库存过剩的问题。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>预计，美国房地产或将“退烧”，美联储加息推高房贷利率，房地产销售投资或放缓。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>进一步指出，在金融严监管下，过去2年内美国新增房贷大部分是高等级信用贷款，而非“次贷”，因此，美国楼市“退烧”，或许不会引发金融系统性风险。</p><p>加息风暴将来得更猛烈？</p><p><b>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。</b></p><p>目前来看，美股的持续暴跌与房地产“退烧”，仍旧不是美联储最担忧的问题，最“燃眉之急”的问题仍然是爆表的通胀率。</p><p>最新披露的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中明确表示，抗击通货膨胀是美国政府的首要经济任务，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>随着11月的中期选举临近，通胀飙升已经成为拜登政府的一个政治难题。最新民调结果显示，仅有37%的人赞成拜登对美国目前经济问题的处理，仅有28%的人赞成他对通胀的处理。超过80%的受访者认为，经济问题、通胀和不断上涨的天然气价格是决定他们今年11月如何投票的最重要问题。</p><p>面对一系列的压力之下，拜登政府正在向美联储施压、甩锅。美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯最新表态称，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</p><p>华尔街交易员预计，美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储加息75个基点的可能性，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计，下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达到50%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n预警频频，史上最大泡沫来临？美联储有可能加息75个基点吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-12 09:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。</p><p>当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。</p><p>密集的预警声</p><p>一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。</p><p>当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31c125b03494885622e1099c79399ee0\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>大跌5.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌3.2%。</p><p>在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。</p><p>当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。</p><p>在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。</p><p>当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。</p><p>Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。</p><p>本周<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。</p><p>更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。</p><p>桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。</p><p><b>其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；</p><p>高盛集团总裁约翰·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688028\">沃尔德</a>伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。</p><p>在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。</p><p>据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。</p><p>另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William Dudley）表示，在本轮周期实现软着陆的可能性几乎为零，因为过去他们每次不得不推高失业率时，最后都以衰退告终。</p><p>美国楼市的危险信号</p><p>与此同时，持续飙涨的美国楼市，也传来了危险的信号。</p><p>2022年以来，美联储激进的加息政策，正在迅速推升美国的房贷利率，美国30年房贷平均固定利率从今年初的3.1%飙升至5.1%，导致美国楼市大幅降温，新房和二手房销售量双双下滑。</p><p>据美国商务部公布的数据显示，2022年4月，美国新房的销售量环比下降16.6%，已经连续4个月下降，创2020年4月以来新低，且跌幅为9年来最大。</p><p><b>高房价、高利率，正在显著冲击火爆的美国楼市。据美国统计网站Realtor.com，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，这是数年来美国楼市库存首个“重大转折点”，感受到压力的卖家开始加速抛售套现。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8cc4f488ef4b1d8b10709c12f120ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"828\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据美国抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）发布的季节性调整指数，上周的抵押贷款申请总量与前一周相比下降了6.5%（包括购买和再融资申请），这是连续第四周下降，需求量跌至22年来的最低水平。</p><p>在此之前，受美联储的史诗级大放水的刺激，美国房价的涨势格外凶猛，据标普<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a>凯斯·席勒全国房价指数更新的最新数据显示，美国3月全国房价指数同比上涨20.6%，这也是该数据35年历史的同比增速新高。同时，凯斯-席勒的十城和二十城指数同比涨幅也达到19.5%和21.2%。</p><p>目前，全美的平均房价较2012年波底的累计涨幅，已经超过100%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7635bf03a9b4040bc5821fe5b40b209\" tg-width=\"1052\" tg-height=\"806\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国房价的另一个先行指标：木材价格也已拉响警报。据CME最新的交易数据显示，自3月初以来，美国木材价格已经腰斩。截至目前，芝加哥木材期货跌至572美元/千板尺，今年以来已累计跌去50%。</p><p>约翰·伯恩斯房地产咨询公司指出，美国木材价格下滑，主要是因为新房需求遭到飙升的房贷利率而下降，且美国木材库存已经升至高位。</p><p>对此，全球最大的木材生产商之一Canfor表示，将延长减产计划，以解决库存过剩的问题。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>预计，美国房地产或将“退烧”，美联储加息推高房贷利率，房地产销售投资或放缓。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>进一步指出，在金融严监管下，过去2年内美国新增房贷大部分是高等级信用贷款，而非“次贷”，因此，美国楼市“退烧”，或许不会引发金融系统性风险。</p><p>加息风暴将来得更猛烈？</p><p><b>吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。</b></p><p>目前来看，美股的持续暴跌与房地产“退烧”，仍旧不是美联储最担忧的问题，最“燃眉之急”的问题仍然是爆表的通胀率。</p><p>最新披露的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中明确表示，抗击通货膨胀是美国政府的首要经济任务，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>随着11月的中期选举临近，通胀飙升已经成为拜登政府的一个政治难题。最新民调结果显示，仅有37%的人赞成拜登对美国目前经济问题的处理，仅有28%的人赞成他对通胀的处理。超过80%的受访者认为，经济问题、通胀和不断上涨的天然气价格是决定他们今年11月如何投票的最重要问题。</p><p>面对一系列的压力之下，拜登政府正在向美联储施压、甩锅。美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯最新表态称，拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</p><p>华尔街交易员预计，美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储加息75个基点的可能性，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计，下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达到50%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a0c467425d24d08aad0edbc90b560a7","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242561396","content_text":"史上最大的泡沫，突然传来了密集的预警声。当前美国市场，出现了一个值得警惕的信号：全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击，如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，今年4月，桥水基金已经开始运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。另外，滚烫的美国楼市也传来了危险的信号。据美国商务部公布的最新数据显示，美国新房的销售量创出9年以来的环比最大跌幅。另有数据显示，5月美国活跃挂牌的楼市库存同比上升8%，是数年来美国楼市的“重大转折点”，越来越多的卖家开始加速抛售套现，美国的抵押贷款需求量更是跌至22年来的最低水平。吹起泡沫、刺破泡沫，美联储都扮演者关键角色。目前看来，在美国总统拜登的施压下，美联储的加息风暴或许会更为猛烈。华尔街甚至已经开始讨论美联储单次加息75个基点的可能性。密集的预警声一连串的悲观警告，给美股再添阴霾。当地时间6月10日，美国5月CPI数据披露，通货膨胀率再四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。美股开盘后，三大指数集体低开低走，最终，集体暴跌收场，纳指领跌，跌幅达3.5%，标普收跌2.9%，道指重挫880点，跌幅达2.73%。其中，美股科技龙头股全线暴跌，亚马逊大跌5.6%，奈飞跌超5%，Facebook母公司Meta收跌4.6%，苹果、微软跌幅分别达3.9%、4.5%，谷歌跌3.2%。在经历一轮凶猛抛售潮后，华尔街分析人士指出，爆表的通胀、美联储加息的阴霾下，美股市场正在重新审视美国经济衰退的风险，因为这一风险并未被市场充分定价。当前，全球首富、华尔街投行、前美联储高官、经济学教授...等大佬们，对美国经济似乎越来越悲观。在最新的采访中，“黑天鹅”基金Universa Investments首席投资官Mark Spitznagel表示，金融体系最容易受到“人类历史上最大信用债泡沫”的冲击。如果这个泡沫破灭，那将是所有人所见过的最灾难性的市场失灵。当前美国信用债市场主要由市政债与公司债共同构成，美国信用债未来5年平均到期规模超1万亿美元，且投机级占比持续提升，加大企业端偿债压力。Spitznagel一直坚定反对美联储将利率维持在接近于0甚至负的水平，他警告称，这推升了资产价值并鼓励过度借贷。目前，全球央行都在收紧货币政策以抗通胀，美国国债的表现正在令投资者失望。本周德意志银行发布的最新报告指出，如果经济衰退如预测的那样在明年年底到来，通胀水平维持在高位，那么预计美国垃圾债违约率将达到10.3％左右的峰值。更明确的信号是，嗅觉最敏锐的桥水基金已经开始做空欧美公司债，媒体援引知情人士表示，早在今年4月桥水基金便运用一篮子信用衍生品做空了欧美公司债。桥水联合首席投资官Greg Jensen在接受采访时表示，桥水之所以选择做空欧美公司债，是因为公司认为通胀将比美联储预期的更为根深蒂固，而这最终将迫使美联储加快加息步伐。其他华尔街巨头也接连发出警告：富国银行首席执行官表示，美国经济难以避免某种程度的衰退；摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙警告称，美国经济面临前所未有的挑战，投资者应该为即将到来的“经济风暴”做准备；高盛集团总裁约翰·沃尔德伦（John Waldron）也发出预警：由于全球经济受到的一系列冲击，未来将步入一段艰难时期，已经看到了更加严峻的资本市场环境。在分析美国经济衰退的可能性时，美国前财长、现职哈佛教授萨默斯更是直白地表示，历史告诉我们，当通胀超过4%且失业率低于4%时，美国经济2年内就会步入衰退，当前美国没有工具能够平稳地使得经济“软着陆”。据美国劳工部最新的数据显示，美国5月的非农失业率为3.6%，而美国5月的通货膨胀率却仍高达8.6%。市场预期，美联储将进一步激进加息，甚至大幅缩减资产负债表，以遏制“高烧不退”的通货膨胀。另外，曾在2009年至2018年担任纽约联储主席的威廉·杜德利（William 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马斯克就是个骗子，赌徒们一定会在此输掉内裤","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>马斯克就是个骗子，赌徒们一定会在此输掉内裤","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$马斯克就是个骗子，赌徒们一定会在此输掉内裤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947891774","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546595488179311","authorId":"3546595488179311","name":"教子教孙别玩A股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb68c22e82b41f8e49977f6491e890fb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546595488179311","authorIdStr":"3546595488179311"},"content":"瞧把你酸的","text":"瞧把你酸的","html":"瞧把你酸的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859573748,"gmtCreate":1634717379303,"gmtModify":1634717379303,"author":{"id":"3541577273438742","authorId":"3541577273438742","name":"Creazy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6f8fc862e58ccbe0c5d3647299e3d7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3541577273438742","authorIdStr":"3541577273438742"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小鹏是我最看好的国内电车商，因为小鹏是科班，战略方向不会错，会越走越远","listText":"小鹏是我最看好的国内电车商，因为小鹏是科班，战略方向不会错，会越走越远","text":"小鹏是我最看好的国内电车商，因为小鹏是科班，战略方向不会错，会越走越远","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859573748","repostId":"1129136429","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129136429","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634714935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129136429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-20 15:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"小鹏P5批量下线，为全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129136429","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月20日，小鹏汽车消息，全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车小鹏P5顺利批量下线，即将在十月底开启首批车主交付。\n小鹏 P5 车拥有双激光雷达、百变智能空间、长续航等卖点，全国补贴后价 15.79 万元-","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09898f2b119b546c204f0da3a4476925\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>10月20日，小鹏汽车消息，全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车小鹏P5顺利批量下线，即将在十月底开启首批车主交付。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2513a88e466551d0364d450e24fe27\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">小鹏 P5 车拥有双激光雷达、百变智能空间、长续航等卖点，全国补贴后价 15.79 万元-22.39 万元。</p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 是全球第一款量产激光雷达智能汽车，提供运动、标准、经济三种驾驶模式，最高 310 牛米高效电机，0.42G 初段加速度，风阻系数只有 0.223。百公里加速 7.5 秒，百公里刹车距离为 36.5 米， 提供 600km、550km 和 460km 三个版本可选。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b367bc2a2001411bca72d38dd6ba81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1099\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 部分版本配备 180Wh/kg 高能密度电池，全系标配热泵空调，冬季续航相对来说有保证些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa88037f206d5f19c150d7109a792c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>该车型理论最长 NEDC 综合续航能够达到 600 公里，跟特斯拉 Model 3 作为对比，小鹏 P5 实际续航比例高达 97.1%，比较贴合 NEDC 的续航数据。同时小鹏也是国内第一个自建超充网络的车企，现在已经有 400 座品牌充电站，1596 座免费充电站。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dfa5e21c391030c4d5a1f499aecaf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 搭配博世 EPS 与 ESP9.3 最新版本的车身稳定控制系统，操控顺滑转向灵敏，动态表现稳定，而且针对城市路况还做了滤震优化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee3dcd09c481beaedd38367fe458d09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据悉，小鹏 P5 还有“百变空间”，它拥有 450L+70L 超大后备箱、26 个储物空间，而且内部空间更大，像一个小房车，可改装成娱乐空间、休息空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999c74212c21e33db02772b407a9f5b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>P5 拥有小鹏汽车迄今为止最强的智能硬件系统，包括 2 个激光雷达、12 个超声波雷达、5 个毫米波雷达、13 个高清摄像头，1 个高精定位单元（GNSS+IMU），是同级最强硬件系统，比特斯拉 FSD 多 11 个传感器，定位精度高特斯拉一个量级。在隧道、大雾天气、雨雪天气、暗光环境等特殊场景下，可大幅度提高感知能力。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏P5批量下线，为全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小鹏P5批量下线，为全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-20 15:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09898f2b119b546c204f0da3a4476925\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>10月20日，小鹏汽车消息，全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车小鹏P5顺利批量下线，即将在十月底开启首批车主交付。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2513a88e466551d0364d450e24fe27\" tg-width=\"863\" tg-height=\"408\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">小鹏 P5 车拥有双激光雷达、百变智能空间、长续航等卖点，全国补贴后价 15.79 万元-22.39 万元。</p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 是全球第一款量产激光雷达智能汽车，提供运动、标准、经济三种驾驶模式，最高 310 牛米高效电机，0.42G 初段加速度，风阻系数只有 0.223。百公里加速 7.5 秒，百公里刹车距离为 36.5 米， 提供 600km、550km 和 460km 三个版本可选。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b367bc2a2001411bca72d38dd6ba81\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1099\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 部分版本配备 180Wh/kg 高能密度电池，全系标配热泵空调，冬季续航相对来说有保证些。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa88037f206d5f19c150d7109a792c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>该车型理论最长 NEDC 综合续航能够达到 600 公里，跟特斯拉 Model 3 作为对比，小鹏 P5 实际续航比例高达 97.1%，比较贴合 NEDC 的续航数据。同时小鹏也是国内第一个自建超充网络的车企，现在已经有 400 座品牌充电站，1596 座免费充电站。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57dfa5e21c391030c4d5a1f499aecaf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小鹏 P5 搭配博世 EPS 与 ESP9.3 最新版本的车身稳定控制系统，操控顺滑转向灵敏，动态表现稳定，而且针对城市路况还做了滤震优化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee3dcd09c481beaedd38367fe458d09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据悉，小鹏 P5 还有“百变空间”，它拥有 450L+70L 超大后备箱、26 个储物空间，而且内部空间更大，像一个小房车，可改装成娱乐空间、休息空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999c74212c21e33db02772b407a9f5b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>P5 拥有小鹏汽车迄今为止最强的智能硬件系统，包括 2 个激光雷达、12 个超声波雷达、5 个毫米波雷达、13 个高清摄像头，1 个高精定位单元（GNSS+IMU），是同级最强硬件系统，比特斯拉 FSD 多 11 个传感器，定位精度高特斯拉一个量级。在隧道、大雾天气、雨雪天气、暗光环境等特殊场景下，可大幅度提高感知能力。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f803d027d960e6544b634aa5c50191ab","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129136429","content_text":"10月20日，小鹏汽车消息，全球首款量产激光雷达智能汽车小鹏P5顺利批量下线，即将在十月底开启首批车主交付。\n小鹏 P5 车拥有双激光雷达、百变智能空间、长续航等卖点，全国补贴后价 15.79 万元-22.39 万元。\n小鹏 P5 是全球第一款量产激光雷达智能汽车，提供运动、标准、经济三种驾驶模式，最高 310 牛米高效电机，0.42G 初段加速度，风阻系数只有 0.223。百公里加速 7.5 秒，百公里刹车距离为 36.5 米， 提供 600km、550km 和 460km 三个版本可选。\n\n小鹏 P5 部分版本配备 180Wh/kg 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