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左小左
2022-03-11
$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$
中概股这么不受待见了
左小左
2022-01-27
$小米集团-W(01810)$
对于重仓小米的我来说看到股价确实不爽,但如果你还没入手,我建议可以考虑。无论从哪一方面看,现在都可能是个买入的好时机。
左小左
2021-12-15
$小米集团-W(01810)$
现在开始无法理解小米的股价了。
左小左
2021-11-24
$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$
小鹏是不是最近要增发了
左小左
2021-09-27
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米今年的表现完全体现了自己的能力不足,去年的高歌猛进是市场认为它能占据华为留下的份额,没想到自己遭遇了滑铁卢。整个公司的管理层应该好好反思。
左小左
2021-08-28
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米是波段高手。从过去几次的回购来看,基本25以下就买,再高位授予员工。怎么看都是高手。
左小左
2021-08-27
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米确实不受资本市场看好,主要还是护城河不深。
左小左
2021-08-11
$小米集团-W(01810)$
原来马云有这么个**彪悍的老婆。
左小左
2021-07-29
$滴滴(DIDI)$
以目前的政治环境来看,滴滴的管理层和背后资本的最佳选择就是私有化去香港,看看隔壁好未来。
左小左
2021-06-30
$虎牙(HUYA)$
虎牙最大的问题在于18-24压力盘太大,需要一个大的利好突破。
左小左
2021-06-26
$每日优鲜(MF)$
标准的资本收割散户,富途和老虎这一波也是神助攻,宣传也要有个限度。活脱脱拉散户垫背。
左小左
2021-06-23
$小米集团-W(01810)$
没太理解小米这么拉垮的原因。
左小左
2021-06-07
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米大**
左小左
2021-06-04
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米这几天也挺有意思,高开低走,等下午三点后再被拉回。感觉内地资金在撤而外资在增持。
左小左
2021-06-03
$好未来(TAL)$
是不是有人爆仓啦
左小左
2021-05-26
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米财报新鲜出炉啊,细看了一下真的很不错。虽然没达到自己乐观预估的800亿营收(我预估的手机ASP比现实高了一点),但各个业务线的毛利率都是历史新高,非常值得欣喜。对于小米,因为有电动车的预期,我是把它当做成长股来看待的。如果没有幺蛾子我的目标价是36港币,以下是风险点:1. 汽车业务是重资产,短期内会压榨利润和现金流;2. 小米新一轮的招聘已经开始,未来需要业务继续增长;3. 最后一点,也是我最担心的,小米的高端之路今年感觉不会成,因为MIUI的原因B站骂声一片,Youtube上应该海外上线不久还没见到很多骂声,希望小米尽快解决系统问题吧。
左小左
2021-05-24
$好未来(TAL)$
浓眉大眼的好未来!
左小左
2021-05-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
现在感觉跌倒1万点也不为过。
左小左
2021-05-12
$小米集团-W(01810)$
小米这追涨速度有点慢啊
左小左
2021-05-11
$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$
还以为ARK被人干翻,量价齐涨啊。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$</a>小鹏是不是最近要增发了","text":"$小鹏汽车-W(09868)$小鹏是不是最近要增发了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874984104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868729050,"gmtCreate":1632706491270,"gmtModify":1632706491270,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539657424695282","idStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>小米今年的表现完全体现了自己的能力不足,去年的高歌猛进是市场认为它能占据华为留下的份额,没想到自己遭遇了滑铁卢。整个公司的管理层应该好好反思。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>小米是波段高手。从过去几次的回购来看,基本25以下就买,再高位授予员工。怎么看都是高手。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$小米是波段高手。从过去几次的回购来看,基本25以下就买,再高位授予员工。怎么看都是高手。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813115474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570519902944492","authorId":"3570519902944492","name":"vajra龚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e566462dbd446ee4721f6815df7f28c0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570519902944492","idStr":"3570519902944492"},"content":"港股按规定回购的股票是必须注销的","text":"港股按规定回购的股票是必须注销的","html":"港股按规定回购的股票是必须注销的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":819168349,"gmtCreate":1630045792481,"gmtModify":1704955110922,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539657424695282","idStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>原来马云有这么个**彪悍的老婆。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$原来马云有这么个**彪悍的老婆。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892804017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":808163199,"gmtCreate":1627565594611,"gmtModify":1627565594611,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539657424695282","idStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>以目前的政治环境来看,滴滴的管理层和背后资本的最佳选择就是私有化去香港,看看隔壁好未来。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>对于重仓小米的我来说看到股价确实不爽,但如果你还没入手,我建议可以考虑。无论从哪一方面看,现在都可能是个买入的好时机。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$对于重仓小米的我来说看到股价确实不爽,但如果你还没入手,我建议可以考虑。无论从哪一方面看,现在都可能是个买入的好时机。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":151,"commentSize":41,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639884647","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3483652117772320","authorId":"3483652117772320","name":"顾胖子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c4d097e9215972d868b53cfcca8fa1e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3483652117772320","authorIdStr":"3483652117772320"},"content":"小米逻辑不一样,小米涨是因为华为,跌也因为华为,从8块多涨起来,怕是容易回去","text":"小米逻辑不一样,小米涨是因为华为,跌也因为华为,从8块多涨起来,怕是容易回去","html":"小米逻辑不一样,小米涨是因为华为,跌也因为华为,从8块多涨起来,怕是容易回去"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393844243,"gmtCreate":1606291619082,"gmtModify":1703842290913,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>现在越来越觉得小米有点像腾讯的硬件版本,腾讯作为社交之王,用投资再造了一个腾讯。而小米的硬件生态链也有这个意思了。我个人认为接下来小米的发展在于:1. 手机成为全球老大。目前看着比较远,当哪一天小米发布高端旗舰,能在全球范围内受到三星旗舰一样的关注,那么就是时候了;2. IOT以及生活消费品快速成长。目前小米这块海外其实布局远没有成熟,很多市场因为专利原因没有进入;其次看一下小米商城,小米似乎把很多小家电的份额让给了生态链公司去做了,看一下紫米最近发布的插线板、充电宝,比小米自营的要与时俱进一些;3. 互联网收入。这块是Q3财报最大的利空,海外市场不像国内,app分成都被Google拿走了,所以即使手机销量再涨也没用。 我倒是觉得小米可以从金融科技(如生活钱包)这块好好发力,毕竟这是每个人都需要的。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>现在越来越觉得小米有点像腾讯的硬件版本,腾讯作为社交之王,用投资再造了一个腾讯。而小米的硬件生态链也有这个意思了。我个人认为接下来小米的发展在于:1. 手机成为全球老大。目前看着比较远,当哪一天小米发布高端旗舰,能在全球范围内受到三星旗舰一样的关注,那么就是时候了;2. IOT以及生活消费品快速成长。目前小米这块海外其实布局远没有成熟,很多市场因为专利原因没有进入;其次看一下小米商城,小米似乎把很多小家电的份额让给了生态链公司去做了,看一下紫米最近发布的插线板、充电宝,比小米自营的要与时俱进一些;3. 互联网收入。这块是Q3财报最大的利空,海外市场不像国内,app分成都被Google拿走了,所以即使手机销量再涨也没用。 我倒是觉得小米可以从金融科技(如生活钱包)这块好好发力,毕竟这是每个人都需要的。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$现在越来越觉得小米有点像腾讯的硬件版本,腾讯作为社交之王,用投资再造了一个腾讯。而小米的硬件生态链也有这个意思了。我个人认为接下来小米的发展在于:1. 手机成为全球老大。目前看着比较远,当哪一天小米发布高端旗舰,能在全球范围内受到三星旗舰一样的关注,那么就是时候了;2. IOT以及生活消费品快速成长。目前小米这块海外其实布局远没有成熟,很多市场因为专利原因没有进入;其次看一下小米商城,小米似乎把很多小家电的份额让给了生态链公司去做了,看一下紫米最近发布的插线板、充电宝,比小米自营的要与时俱进一些;3. 互联网收入。这块是Q3财报最大的利空,海外市场不像国内,app分成都被Google拿走了,所以即使手机销量再涨也没用。 我倒是觉得小米可以从金融科技(如生活钱包)这块好好发力,毕竟这是每个人都需要的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393844243","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303096981,"gmtCreate":1602813011843,"gmtModify":1703828026542,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我仔细读了一遍摩根大通分析师的报告,在这份材料中,摩根大通将蔚来股票的评级从「中性」上调至「持有」,并设定目标价为 40 美元,时间点为 2021 年 6 月,并表示是基于蔚来 2025 年销量增长三倍的预期。他们现在将蔚来的股价估算法调整为汽车销售额,目标价为 40.00 美元。如果采用的是这种估值方案,我们可以比较一下Tesla和Nio。Tesla2020年预计销售50万辆,Nio2020年前三季度销量是26375辆,假设第四季度销量2万辆,那么Nio2020年的销售量不到5万辆。按照汽车销售额估值方法,预估Nio平均售价35万,Tesla平均售价30万,那么单台平均销售额Nio比Tesla高17%。Nio的年销量目前是Tesla的不到1/10,目前Tesla的市值4000亿美金,由此可以预估Nio的市值在4000*0.1*1.17=468亿美金。由于Nio的毛利率目前远不及Tesla,再给Nio打个10%的折扣,这么看来今年Nio400亿美金在目前的市场环境下还算合理。可惜了,我在Nio $20美金的时候卖飞了。。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我仔细读了一遍摩根大通分析师的报告,在这份材料中,摩根大通将蔚来股票的评级从「中性」上调至「持有」,并设定目标价为 40 美元,时间点为 2021 年 6 月,并表示是基于蔚来 2025 年销量增长三倍的预期。他们现在将蔚来的股价估算法调整为汽车销售额,目标价为 40.00 美元。如果采用的是这种估值方案,我们可以比较一下Tesla和Nio。Tesla2020年预计销售50万辆,Nio2020年前三季度销量是26375辆,假设第四季度销量2万辆,那么Nio2020年的销售量不到5万辆。按照汽车销售额估值方法,预估Nio平均售价35万,Tesla平均售价30万,那么单台平均销售额Nio比Tesla高17%。Nio的年销量目前是Tesla的不到1/10,目前Tesla的市值4000亿美金,由此可以预估Nio的市值在4000*0.1*1.17=468亿美金。由于Nio的毛利率目前远不及Tesla,再给Nio打个10%的折扣,这么看来今年Nio400亿美金在目前的市场环境下还算合理。可惜了,我在Nio $20美金的时候卖飞了。。。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我仔细读了一遍摩根大通分析师的报告,在这份材料中,摩根大通将蔚来股票的评级从「中性」上调至「持有」,并设定目标价为 40 美元,时间点为 2021 年 6 月,并表示是基于蔚来 2025 年销量增长三倍的预期。他们现在将蔚来的股价估算法调整为汽车销售额,目标价为 40.00 美元。如果采用的是这种估值方案,我们可以比较一下Tesla和Nio。Tesla2020年预计销售50万辆,Nio2020年前三季度销量是26375辆,假设第四季度销量2万辆,那么Nio2020年的销售量不到5万辆。按照汽车销售额估值方法,预估Nio平均售价35万,Tesla平均售价30万,那么单台平均销售额Nio比Tesla高17%。Nio的年销量目前是Tesla的不到1/10,目前Tesla的市值4000亿美金,由此可以预估Nio的市值在4000*0.1*1.17=468亿美金。由于Nio的毛利率目前远不及Tesla,再给Nio打个10%的折扣,这么看来今年Nio400亿美金在目前的市场环境下还算合理。可惜了,我在Nio $20美金的时候卖飞了。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303096981","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532428636921784","authorId":"3532428636921784","name":"DueCOURSE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5809a6d6bacea237a511f2e7276f636","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3532428636921784","authorIdStr":"3532428636921784"},"content":"今天四季度卖两万量的话要每个月六千多台。即使蔚来订单积压不愁没人买,产量也赶不上这个数字吧 毕竟九月才4700多","text":"今天四季度卖两万量的话要每个月六千多台。即使蔚来订单积压不愁没人买,产量也赶不上这个数字吧 毕竟九月才4700多","html":"今天四季度卖两万量的话要每个月六千多台。即使蔚来订单积压不愁没人买,产量也赶不上这个数字吧 毕竟九月才4700多"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351887068,"gmtCreate":1616585118354,"gmtModify":1616589227507,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 细看了一下小米的财报,粗看一般,但给我的惊喜如下:1. 手机毛利润率在提高;估计随着小米11发售,今年Q1的财报会更加好看;2. IOT增速不错;虽然IOT的毛利润率降低了一些,但营收增速不错;3. 2020年Q4经调整净利润为32亿,但对比一下发现Q4比Q3的三费支出高出27亿,这是一笔不小的开支,主要用于扩展市场和员工薪酬,我个人认为是好事;4. 投资收益创历史记录,证明小米确实是个不错的投资人^_^;所以我个人认为小米回到千亿美金的市值问题不大,只是时间长短的问题。只是目前手机不是一条性感的赛道,需要有快速增长的产品,比如智能电动车。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 细看了一下小米的财报,粗看一般,但给我的惊喜如下:1. 手机毛利润率在提高;估计随着小米11发售,今年Q1的财报会更加好看;2. IOT增速不错;虽然IOT的毛利润率降低了一些,但营收增速不错;3. 2020年Q4经调整净利润为32亿,但对比一下发现Q4比Q3的三费支出高出27亿,这是一笔不小的开支,主要用于扩展市场和员工薪酬,我个人认为是好事;4. 投资收益创历史记录,证明小米确实是个不错的投资人^_^;所以我个人认为小米回到千亿美金的市值问题不大,只是时间长短的问题。只是目前手机不是一条性感的赛道,需要有快速增长的产品,比如智能电动车。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 细看了一下小米的财报,粗看一般,但给我的惊喜如下:1. 手机毛利润率在提高;估计随着小米11发售,今年Q1的财报会更加好看;2. IOT增速不错;虽然IOT的毛利润率降低了一些,但营收增速不错;3. 2020年Q4经调整净利润为32亿,但对比一下发现Q4比Q3的三费支出高出27亿,这是一笔不小的开支,主要用于扩展市场和员工薪酬,我个人认为是好事;4. 投资收益创历史记录,证明小米确实是个不错的投资人^_^;所以我个人认为小米回到千亿美金的市值问题不大,只是时间长短的问题。只是目前手机不是一条性感的赛道,需要有快速增长的产品,比如智能电动车。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351887068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568081734360099","authorIdStr":"3568081734360099"},"content":"所以看好小米造车? [你懂的] [你懂的]","text":"所以看好小米造车? [你懂的] [你懂的]","html":"所以看好小米造车? [你懂的] [你懂的]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394797305,"gmtCreate":1608107026107,"gmtModify":1703851174448,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>小米也快达到我预估的千亿美金了,这时候却让我有点困惑。以目前小米的增长来说,未来年利润200亿问题不大,给个PE40倍差不多8000亿人民币吧。但后续的发展似乎有点瓶颈,手机行业即使做到全球第一也是个红海市场逐渐走下坡路了。而且小米的互联网业务迟迟没有起色,这样长期来看40倍PE是支撑不住的,成长性目前来看不是很足。接下来小米怎么走呢?很是困惑。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>小米也快达到我预估的千亿美金了,这时候却让我有点困惑。以目前小米的增长来说,未来年利润200亿问题不大,给个PE40倍差不多8000亿人民币吧。但后续的发展似乎有点瓶颈,手机行业即使做到全球第一也是个红海市场逐渐走下坡路了。而且小米的互联网业务迟迟没有起色,这样长期来看40倍PE是支撑不住的,成长性目前来看不是很足。接下来小米怎么走呢?很是困惑。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$小米也快达到我预估的千亿美金了,这时候却让我有点困惑。以目前小米的增长来说,未来年利润200亿问题不大,给个PE40倍差不多8000亿人民币吧。但后续的发展似乎有点瓶颈,手机行业即使做到全球第一也是个红海市场逐渐走下坡路了。而且小米的互联网业务迟迟没有起色,这样长期来看40倍PE是支撑不住的,成长性目前来看不是很足。接下来小米怎么走呢?很是困惑。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394797305","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3570229074257252","authorId":"3570229074257252","name":"Scrona","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8824f3183a22ba17fb6955468dd5d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570229074257252","authorIdStr":"3570229074257252"},"content":"小米未来的想象空间在于小米智能家居,也是利润的主要来源","text":"小米未来的想象空间在于小米智能家居,也是利润的主要来源","html":"小米未来的想象空间在于小米智能家居,也是利润的主要来源"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334085730,"gmtCreate":1610673608320,"gmtModify":1703746115648,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 看了一下只是禁止投资而已,港股通用户就足够撑起小米的千亿市值了,现阶段不用太担心。唯一的风险在于高通,如果高通断供那就很危险了。不过我个人觉得可能性很小,毕竟高通在华利益太大太大了。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 看了一下只是禁止投资而已,港股通用户就足够撑起小米的千亿市值了,现阶段不用太担心。唯一的风险在于高通,如果高通断供那就很危险了。不过我个人觉得可能性很小,毕竟高通在华利益太大太大了。","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 看了一下只是禁止投资而已,港股通用户就足够撑起小米的千亿市值了,现阶段不用太担心。唯一的风险在于高通,如果高通断供那就很危险了。不过我个人觉得可能性很小,毕竟高通在华利益太大太大了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334085730","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494550939192789","authorId":"3494550939192789","name":"该用户不存在","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2c3802a2eba382a71bbed2a8087b748","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3494550939192789","authorIdStr":"3494550939192789"},"content":"不止禁止投资,需要美国投资者抛售手中全部持有的小米股票,像高通、林斌都在范围内。好多人认为是川普闹剧后续会剧情反转,建议现在还是要谨慎,少量加仓可以,千万别梭哈博反弹,风险有点高。","text":"不止禁止投资,需要美国投资者抛售手中全部持有的小米股票,像高通、林斌都在范围内。好多人认为是川普闹剧后续会剧情反转,建议现在还是要谨慎,少量加仓可以,千万别梭哈博反弹,风险有点高。","html":"不止禁止投资,需要美国投资者抛售手中全部持有的小米股票,像高通、林斌都在范围内。好多人认为是川普闹剧后续会剧情反转,建议现在还是要谨慎,少量加仓可以,千万别梭哈博反弹,风险有点高。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306045652,"gmtCreate":1604137877676,"gmtModify":1703832151911,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"title":"通过和Tesla的对比,再谈对蔚来的看好。","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>之前曾通过简单的数学分析过一次蔚来,但我后来又去翻了一下两家公司的材料,发现之前的分析基于的数字有点错误,这次就通过财报来对比一下这两家公司。注意下面的财务数据都是基于美元计价。Tesla Q1-Q3累计交付量318,980量,汽车业务累计营收 $17,922 Million,这样计算下来单车销售额是 $56,000; 其中Q3交付量为139,593,假设Q4交付量为150,000,平均单价 $53,000,那么Q4汽车营收额为 $7,950 Million,全年汽车销售额就是 $25,872 Million. Nio Q1-Q2累计交付量为14,169量,汽车业务累计营收 $670.7 Million, 单车销售额为 $47,335; 由于Nio今年产能受限单月5,000量,我们简单假设Q3和Q4每月都交付5000量(实际会比这个数字低一些),那么预计Q3和Q4的汽车业务营收分别为 $720 Million,全年汽车营收为 $2,110 Million. 对比: 似乎我们的预期有误,实际上Tesla的单车平均销售额是大于蔚来的; 蔚来汽车的毛利润远不及Tesla; 2020年Tesla的汽车销售额预计是蔚来的12倍; Tesla还有太阳能面板业务,大概占总营收的15%左右;而蔚来的营收93%以上来自于汽车销售。 结论: 鉴于蔚来还没有盈利,如果根据之前那位给蔚来标价 $40美金的摩根大通分析师的说法,采用销售额估值法,蔚来市值似乎在Tesla市值的1/12比较合适(这里还没有考虑Tesla的太阳能面板业务,如果考虑,蔚来应该更低一些); 近期Tesla的市值在 $3000亿 - $4500亿之间,那么似乎蔚来的市值应该在 $250亿 - $375亿之间。 以上只是估算,不过考虑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>之前曾通过简单的数学分析过一次蔚来,但我后来又去翻了一下两家公司的材料,发现之前的分析基于的数字有点错误,这次就通过财报来对比一下这两家公司。注意下面的财务数据都是基于美元计价。Tesla Q1-Q3累计交付量318,980量,汽车业务累计营收 $17,922 Million,这样计算下来单车销售额是 $56,000; 其中Q3交付量为139,593,假设Q4交付量为150,000,平均单价 $53,000,那么Q4汽车营收额为 $7,950 Million,全年汽车销售额就是 $25,872 Million. Nio Q1-Q2累计交付量为14,169量,汽车业务累计营收 $670.7 Million, 单车销售额为 $47,335; 由于Nio今年产能受限单月5,000量,我们简单假设Q3和Q4每月都交付5000量(实际会比这个数字低一些),那么预计Q3和Q4的汽车业务营收分别为 $720 Million,全年汽车营收为 $2,110 Million. 对比: 似乎我们的预期有误,实际上Tesla的单车平均销售额是大于蔚来的; 蔚来汽车的毛利润远不及Tesla; 2020年Tesla的汽车销售额预计是蔚来的12倍; Tesla还有太阳能面板业务,大概占总营收的15%左右;而蔚来的营收93%以上来自于汽车销售。 结论: 鉴于蔚来还没有盈利,如果根据之前那位给蔚来标价 $40美金的摩根大通分析师的说法,采用销售额估值法,蔚来市值似乎在Tesla市值的1/12比较合适(这里还没有考虑Tesla的太阳能面板业务,如果考虑,蔚来应该更低一些); 近期Tesla的市值在 $3000亿 - $4500亿之间,那么似乎蔚来的市值应该在 $250亿 - $375亿之间。 以上只是估算,不过考虑","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$之前曾通过简单的数学分析过一次蔚来,但我后来又去翻了一下两家公司的材料,发现之前的分析基于的数字有点错误,这次就通过财报来对比一下这两家公司。注意下面的财务数据都是基于美元计价。Tesla Q1-Q3累计交付量318,980量,汽车业务累计营收 $17,922 Million,这样计算下来单车销售额是 $56,000; 其中Q3交付量为139,593,假设Q4交付量为150,000,平均单价 $53,000,那么Q4汽车营收额为 $7,950 Million,全年汽车销售额就是 $25,872 Million. Nio Q1-Q2累计交付量为14,169量,汽车业务累计营收 $670.7 Million, 单车销售额为 $47,335; 由于Nio今年产能受限单月5,000量,我们简单假设Q3和Q4每月都交付5000量(实际会比这个数字低一些),那么预计Q3和Q4的汽车业务营收分别为 $720 Million,全年汽车营收为 $2,110 Million. 对比: 似乎我们的预期有误,实际上Tesla的单车平均销售额是大于蔚来的; 蔚来汽车的毛利润远不及Tesla; 2020年Tesla的汽车销售额预计是蔚来的12倍; Tesla还有太阳能面板业务,大概占总营收的15%左右;而蔚来的营收93%以上来自于汽车销售。 结论: 鉴于蔚来还没有盈利,如果根据之前那位给蔚来标价 $40美金的摩根大通分析师的说法,采用销售额估值法,蔚来市值似乎在Tesla市值的1/12比较合适(这里还没有考虑Tesla的太阳能面板业务,如果考虑,蔚来应该更低一些); 近期Tesla的市值在 $3000亿 - $4500亿之间,那么似乎蔚来的市值应该在 $250亿 - $375亿之间。 以上只是估算,不过考虑","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c6aacdcb921f88bd38b7be430ac5cf6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306045652","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3497394072377433","authorId":"3497394072377433","name":"虎虎生威01","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65bc75a23da4d1285839b2887b1e5546","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3497394072377433","authorIdStr":"3497394072377433"},"content":"蔚来的单车销售额44万RMB应该是高于特斯拉的,特斯拉现在主要靠m3拉销量,m3占销量90% 蔚来需要加紧提升产量和销量,二代平台np2的进度,以及海外市场布局,否则市值将不进则退。","text":"蔚来的单车销售额44万RMB应该是高于特斯拉的,特斯拉现在主要靠m3拉销量,m3占销量90% 蔚来需要加紧提升产量和销量,二代平台np2的进度,以及海外市场布局,否则市值将不进则退。","html":"蔚来的单车销售额44万RMB应该是高于特斯拉的,特斯拉现在主要靠m3拉销量,m3占销量90% 蔚来需要加紧提升产量和销量,二代平台np2的进度,以及海外市场布局,否则市值将不进则退。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306641702,"gmtCreate":1604392907406,"gmtModify":1703832814744,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>谁能告诉我一下,电动汽车涨,小牛跟着涨是什么逻辑啊?难道电动自行车也有政策红利?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>谁能告诉我一下,电动汽车涨,小牛跟着涨是什么逻辑啊?难道电动自行车也有政策红利?","text":"$小牛电动(NIU)$谁能告诉我一下,电动汽车涨,小牛跟着涨是什么逻辑啊?难道电动自行车也有政策红利?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306641702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542271111445617","authorId":"3542271111445617","name":"东十里堡路之狼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44c5e395d8abcedadbf53e8bde6519f5","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3542271111445617","authorIdStr":"3542271111445617"},"content":"我估计好多人以为这个是电动汽车。特别是老黑。","text":"我估计好多人以为这个是电动汽车。特别是老黑。","html":"我估计好多人以为这个是电动汽车。特别是老黑。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384566811,"gmtCreate":1613661489333,"gmtModify":1613661489333,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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在一个偏僻的地方竟然遇到了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396096114,"gmtCreate":1606984575538,"gmtModify":1703845772721,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 曾经的在线教育从业者,以我对中概股中的在线教育公司的理解,跟谁学大概率是财务造假,SEC和中国证监会应该严查。国内的一批在线教育公司把当年手机游戏自充值的玩法玩得炉火纯青。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 曾经的在线教育从业者,以我对中概股中的在线教育公司的理解,跟谁学大概率是财务造假,SEC和中国证监会应该严查。国内的一批在线教育公司把当年手机游戏自充值的玩法玩得炉火纯青。","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 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其实我没太想明白小米为啥最近涨这么猛,今天按照小米业务板块的毛利率毛估了一下,Q4即使手机出货量5000万台,公司的毛利也不会比Q3好太多,估计10%左右的环比毛利润增长,但经营支出应该会比Q3扩大。亮点可能在于Q4小米持股的上市公司股价有很大的上扬,比如小鹏汽车、石头科技、九号电动车等等。所以总觉得最近小米涨幅有点过快,可能有回调的风险。但如果单季度手机销量突破6000万,那涨幅还算说得过去。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339950428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542333635431023","authorId":"3542333635431023","name":"星雨涵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca22312b7c3b7884e991d74b1eb5c07","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3542333635431023","authorIdStr":"3542333635431023"},"content":"小米上市前就曾估值1000亿美金,,时至今日市值才刚刚突破1000亿美金!这两年里,小米的各项业务突飞猛进,曾经喊出的各种创新商业模式也在不断变现~所以,这只是价值回归吧!从大规模增发融资到现在也才涨了30%而已,新进场的几百亿资金肯定不满足于这么点收益,他们的目标肯定也不止于此,所以,站稳30大关,未来的小米还会走的更加的悠然!","text":"小米上市前就曾估值1000亿美金,,时至今日市值才刚刚突破1000亿美金!这两年里,小米的各项业务突飞猛进,曾经喊出的各种创新商业模式也在不断变现~所以,这只是价值回归吧!从大规模增发融资到现在也才涨了30%而已,新进场的几百亿资金肯定不满足于这么点收益,他们的目标肯定也不止于此,所以,站稳30大关,未来的小米还会走的更加的悠然!","html":"小米上市前就曾估值1000亿美金,,时至今日市值才刚刚突破1000亿美金!这两年里,小米的各项业务突飞猛进,曾经喊出的各种创新商业模式也在不断变现~所以,这只是价值回归吧!从大规模增发融资到现在也才涨了30%而已,新进场的几百亿资金肯定不满足于这么点收益,他们的目标肯定也不止于此,所以,站稳30大关,未来的小米还会走的更加的悠然!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367415514,"gmtCreate":1614961035438,"gmtModify":1703483683410,"author":{"id":"3539657424695282","authorId":"3539657424695282","name":"左小左","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769dd25f3f38e9fb4a9efc3aee070d8d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539657424695282","authorIdStr":"3539657424695282"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>相比于国产电动三傻的估值,瞬间觉得tesla好像没有那么贵了。。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" 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