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MarkBonBon
不做空,不末日,不重仓
IP属地:山西
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MarkBonBon
2020-04-03
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
主要是罚款和赔偿,如果把现金流打掉的话就直接破产了,熬过去的话就还好。
MarkBonBon
2020-02-03
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
全文强调公司内部控制很强,支付系统是第三方的可以来验证,广告费提到也会提供一份报告来说明,Vat 那块暂时没看明白,市场可能要看到确实的报告才会有动作。
MarkBonBon
2020-02-10
$有道(DAO)$
就这点交易量,哪个机构进来都能拉一波,同理,跌的时候也是。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
所以昨天系统故障没卖的put可以找老虎索赔嘛。
MarkBonBon
2020-02-16
$吉利德科学(GILD)$
国内药已经上市了,法维拉韦[捂脸]
MarkBonBon
2020-01-14
$Beyond Meat, Inc.(BYND)$
熔断了,别问啦。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-12
$波音(BA)$
08金融危机跌倒了50多。
MarkBonBon
2020-04-07
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
疑,诱多。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
明显空头在平仓。
MarkBonBon
2020-06-05
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
?你们不会不知道要退市吧,不会吧不会吧。
MarkBonBon
2020-04-08
$跟谁学(GSX)$
其实不一定虚构收入,但是pe太高了。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
每次假"拐点"出现的时候,总有一些神棍来发言证明自己多蠢。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
每天上上下下,怪不得期权这么贵。
MarkBonBon
2020-03-06
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
牛逼啊,独立行情。
MarkBonBon
2020-02-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
增大发新股哦,啪啪打自己脸哦。
MarkBonBon
2020-08-06
$跟谁学(GSX)$
???啥情况,二个月没看涨到100了?????
MarkBonBon
2020-04-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
咋地,又学上次冲1000?
MarkBonBon
2020-04-13
$嘉年华邮轮(CCL)$
还搁这跌呢,波音都翻红了。
MarkBonBon
2020-04-02
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
还敢买.不了解陆正耀是个啥玩意?
MarkBonBon
2020-03-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
还搁这横盘呢,指数都涨3%了。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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18:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"据悉快手机构暗盘交易成交价相比发行价翻倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168932248","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"快手融资额高达1.28万亿,认购人数高达140万。","content":"<p>据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手科技</a>在香港暗盘交易中的交易价为IPO价格的两倍。</p><p>今日早些时候有报道称,快手场外OTC市场成交5万股,成交价250港元,涉资1250万港元,较市场预期上限定价的115港元,涨幅高达117%。</p><p>快手将于2月5日在香港上市。最新消息显示,快手融资额高达1.28万亿,认购人数高达140万,不仅冻资额创历史记录,而且认购人数也创了历史记录。公司本次发售3.65亿股,超购1218倍,触发回拨机制,公开发售占比将扩大至6%,香港公开发售股份总数将增至约2191.32万股。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>据悉快手机构暗盘交易成交价相比发行价翻倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n据悉快手机构暗盘交易成交价相比发行价翻倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-01 18:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手科技</a>在香港暗盘交易中的交易价为IPO价格的两倍。</p><p>今日早些时候有报道称,快手场外OTC市场成交5万股,成交价250港元,涉资1250万港元,较市场预期上限定价的115港元,涨幅高达117%。</p><p>快手将于2月5日在香港上市。最新消息显示,快手融资额高达1.28万亿,认购人数高达140万,不仅冻资额创历史记录,而且认购人数也创了历史记录。公司本次发售3.65亿股,超购1218倍,触发回拨机制,公开发售占比将扩大至6%,香港公开发售股份总数将增至约2191.32万股。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113221e7eea17d614e3a3d22c60b8bb","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168932248","content_text":"据报道,快手科技在香港暗盘交易中的交易价为IPO价格的两倍。今日早些时候有报道称,快手场外OTC市场成交5万股,成交价250港元,涉资1250万港元,较市场预期上限定价的115港元,涨幅高达117%。快手将于2月5日在香港上市。最新消息显示,快手融资额高达1.28万亿,认购人数高达140万,不仅冻资额创历史记录,而且认购人数也创了历史记录。公司本次发售3.65亿股,超购1218倍,触发回拨机制,公开发售占比将扩大至6%,香港公开发售股份总数将增至约2191.32万股。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945728354,"gmtCreate":1596687359078,"gmtModify":1704213186879,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>???啥情况,二个月没看涨到100了?????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>???啥情况,二个月没看涨到100了?????","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$???啥情况,二个月没看涨到100了?????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/945728354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955322029,"gmtCreate":1592312974661,"gmtModify":1704198773372,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955322029","repostId":"2043363773","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2043363773","pubTimestamp":1592308824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2043363773?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2043363773","media":"雪球","summary":"原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>做空股“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/94/w600h294/20200616/285a-iuzasxs9569522.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/470/w710h560/20200616/1caf-iuzasxs9569520.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上,一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉,一边宣誓改日再战;一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位,甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。</p><p>股价一路绿上天</p><p>不得不承认的是,“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者,即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。</p><p>15日中概股是普涨行情,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>涨2.62%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨0.47%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨14.38%,蔚来汽车涨11.97%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨6.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨3.66%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨6.24%,但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。</p><p>同为中概教育股,“跟谁学”的前辈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是,为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天?</p><p>稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人,都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。</p><p>在过去3个月里,“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次,浑水(MuddyWaters Research)、香橼(Citron Research)、天蝎(Scorpio VC)、灰熊(Grizzly Research),这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。</p><p>据统计,仅在5月份,做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元,做空总规模高达8.15亿美元,占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/740/w496h244/20200616/ca48-iuzasxs9569591.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>因此,15日晚的暴涨,也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。</p><p>也有一种说法,6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典,陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称,“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88,收盘价52.00,都是很喜庆的数字,就凭这个,Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/308/w655h453/20200616/db40-iuzasxs9569601.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无论何种原因,至少从目前看,这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时,自信满满地说,“我不关心股价”。</p><p>不仅如此,Larry陈还警告做空者说,“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空,中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛,然后而且我会越来越牛,让他(做空者)亏钱。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/168/w808h160/20200616/a0bc-iuzasxs9569746.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>15日晚,Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看,单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能,恐怕没有那么容易。</p><p>毕竟,投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺,“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价,便是雪山崩塌之时,瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。</p><p>获客成本是1000还是10000?</p><p>引发做空机构最大质疑的是,“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”,转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超过百亿,而且是美元!具体说,“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长,增速超4倍,而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>这样的巨头都没实现盈利,“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?</p><p>做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时,对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/95/w600h295/20200616/88ef-iuzasxs9569749.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君注意到,跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时,曾表示,外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元,2019年一季度,跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是,在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如,VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元,而纯线上培训机构<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>获客成本也高达4970元。</p><p>后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了,还是前浪不行了?</p><p>为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本,IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营,需要讲一下的是,“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文,该公众号根据其流量测算,其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么,“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?</p><p>截至6月16日,该文章阅读量接近5W,但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。</p><p>IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群,一个少儿群,一个成人群,截至16日开课,两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是,这个在线英语培训课程为其4天,每天一次,完全免费。</p><p>虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名,但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>的机械式的同样句式的回复。</p><p>老师据称是跟谁学的名师,可是给IPO君的感觉,这位老师不是在教英文课,而是在上中文课。</p><p>尼玛,好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了,跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法,跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了,这种模式就像Larry陈说的,一般人根本看不懂。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/546/w862h484/20200616/4f10-iuzasxs9569848.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟,就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/465/w520h745/20200616/7917-iuzasxs9569836.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>课后,跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业,还告诉学员,在第二天18点前不交作业的,会被“抱出群”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/289/w536h553/20200616/837b-iuzasxs9569906.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的,但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计,第二天上课前,两个群里300名学生,按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%,4天免费课结束后,假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生,那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算,跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!</p><p>问题是,交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%,对在线教育来说,恐怕是个难以实现的数字。</p><p>Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的,恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗,还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?</p><p>全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 20:00 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml><strong>雪球</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2043363773","content_text":"原标题:全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚,我潜入“跟谁学”课堂,了解了一些真相 来源:雪球6月15日夜,或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈(陈向东)最兴奋的时候。这一晚,“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨,最高至55.88元,最终收盘52.00元,涨幅20.82%,创下该股上市以来的新高!市值也达到了124亿美元(约合840亿人民币)。当晚,伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨,则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上,一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉,一边宣誓改日再战;一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位,甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。股价一路绿上天不得不承认的是,“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者,即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。15日中概股是普涨行情,京东涨2.62%,百度涨0.47%,有道涨14.38%,蔚来汽车涨11.97%,哔哩哔哩涨6.52%,腾讯音乐涨3.66%,拼多多涨6.24%,但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。同为中概教育股,“跟谁学”的前辈新东方(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的,好未来(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是,为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天?稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人,都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。在过去3个月里,“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次,浑水(MuddyWaters Research)、香橼(Citron Research)、天蝎(Scorpio VC)、灰熊(Grizzly Research),这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。据统计,仅在5月份,做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元,做空总规模高达8.15亿美元,占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。因此,15日晚的暴涨,也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。也有一种说法,6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典,陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称,“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88,收盘价52.00,都是很喜庆的数字,就凭这个,Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。无论何种原因,至少从目前看,这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时,自信满满地说,“我不关心股价”。不仅如此,Larry陈还警告做空者说,“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空,中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛,然后而且我会越来越牛,让他(做空者)亏钱。”15日晚,Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看,单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能,恐怕没有那么容易。毕竟,投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺,“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价,便是雪山崩塌之时,瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。获客成本是1000还是10000?引发做空机构最大质疑的是,“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”,转型一年就实现盈利,成立仅5年就上市,上市不到一年市值就超过百亿,而且是美元!具体说,“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长,增速超4倍,而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的新东方在线这样的巨头都没实现盈利,“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时,对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”IPO君注意到,跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时,曾表示,外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式,跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元,2019年一季度,跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是,在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如,VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元,而纯线上培训机构尚德机构获客成本也高达4970元。后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了,还是前浪不行了?为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本,IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营,需要讲一下的是,“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文,该公众号根据其流量测算,其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么,“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?截至6月16日,该文章阅读量接近5W,但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群,一个少儿群,一个成人群,截至16日开课,两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是,这个在线英语培训课程为其4天,每天一次,完全免费。虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名,但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似机器人的机械式的同样句式的回复。老师据称是跟谁学的名师,可是给IPO君的感觉,这位老师不是在教英文课,而是在上中文课。尼玛,好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了,跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法,跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了,这种模式就像Larry陈说的,一般人根本看不懂。IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟,就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。课后,跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业,还告诉学员,在第二天18点前不交作业的,会被“抱出群”。无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的,但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计,第二天上课前,两个群里300名学生,按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%,4天免费课结束后,假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生,那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算,跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!问题是,交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%,对在线教育来说,恐怕是个难以实现的数字。Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的,恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗,还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955038500,"gmtCreate":1592234042100,"gmtModify":1704198435378,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>哦?也要回港二次上市?此外还有啥利好?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>哦?也要回港二次上市?此外还有啥利好?","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$哦?也要回港二次上市?此外还有啥利好?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955038500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958405009,"gmtCreate":1591344690801,"gmtModify":1704195387062,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>?你们不会不知道要退市吧,不会吧不会吧。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>?你们不会不知道要退市吧,不会吧不会吧。","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$?你们不会不知道要退市吧,不会吧不会吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958405009","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959499258,"gmtCreate":1589980182674,"gmtModify":1704191353854,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959499258","repostId":"2036284811","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2036284811","pubTimestamp":1589978855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2036284811?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 20:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财富内参:LPR没降息有何影响?光刻胶大涨怎么看?大宗商品现在能投资吗?如何规避下一个瑞幸?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2036284811","media":"如是金融研究院","summary":"《财富内参》是财富指北社群会员的专属内部报告,文字版交易日每天更新,音频版每周3-5期,欢迎扫码收听。本期内参根据5月19-20日的会员问答和市场热点整理而成。Q1、5月LPR报价利率不变,降息暂停释","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204828607v246kauvt04f3sr\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204837491v2463aadwq191fz\"/><p><strong>《财富内参》是财富指北社群会员的专属内部报告,文字版交易日每天更新,音频版每周3-</strong><strong>5</strong><strong>期,欢迎扫码收听。本期内参根据5月19</strong><strong>-</strong><strong>20</strong><strong>日的会员问答和市场热点整理而成。</strong></p><p><strong>Q1、5月LPR报价利率不变,降息暂停释放了什么重要信号?</strong></p><p>今天公布的5月LPR报价利率选择了按兵不动,1年期LPR3.85%,5年期LPR4.65%。因为前面的MLF并没有降价,所以LPR没降价也在预期之中,这其中释放出一个我们近期反复提示的信号,货币政策和流动性环境正在悄然发生变化,从量的宽松转向质的宽松。钱不在多,能惠及实体就行。接下来降息降准还会有,但重点已经转向信用的扩张,这就是经济进入衰退后期的典型特征,相应的大类资产也会随之产生轮动,<strong>我们前几天的策略会和今天的微课堂都讲了这个问题,感兴趣的可以去听下。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204853649v246ln85zwbtjg9\"/><p><strong>Q2、为什么最近光刻胶板块强势上涨?科技股投资需要注意什么?</strong></p><p>昨天光刻胶板块领涨科技股,很多会员朋友也比较关注。光刻胶板块上涨还是国产替代的逻辑。一方面,光刻胶属于半导体材料,而材料是半导体产业的基石,在芯片制造中的地位非常重要。另一方面,光刻胶技术壁垒很高,全球高端光刻胶市场几乎被日美韩垄断,我国在这一块是非常薄弱的,基本依赖进口。现在外部面临着全球疫情加上美国制裁升级,国内半导体企业有核心原材料断供的风险,半导体材料这一块的国产替代动力最强,同时也是国家大基金二期投资的重点对象。未来3年国内新建晶圆厂迎来投产高峰期,给光刻胶打开了最佳代替窗口,发展空间比较大。但需要注意的是,昨天我们在直播中也跟大家讲到,做科技股投资的时候赛道好不代表个股就好,科技股整体估值也处于高位,风险还是很高的。而且现在大部分好的科技股都不在A股上市,所以还是要谨慎选择一些拥有核心技术,安全边际高的优质龙头。我们更新了大基金二期相关公司现在的基本面情况,供大家参考。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204854816v246g9jxrf4khn6\"/><p><strong>Q3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>涉嫌财务造假面临强制退市,如何辨别公司是否有财务造假的嫌疑?</strong></p><p>5月19日晚间,瑞幸咖啡发布公告称公司于5月15日收到纳斯达克交易所的退市通知,公司计划就此举行听证会。自4月初瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假事件后,公司股价闪崩,暴跌80%以上。目前股票正处于停牌状态中,市值仅剩近11亿。反观国内,目前对于财务造假的处罚相对较轻,近年来A股市场上财务造假的问题有愈演愈烈之势。从2008年至今共有近220家上市公司涉嫌财务造假,广大投资者深受其害。</p><p>给大家简单介绍一下最常见的三种财务造假手段:第一种是虚增收入。大多数是通过虚构业务、伪造合同实现的。瑞幸就是通过虚增收入夸大了22亿人民币的营业额。如果一个公司所在的行业整体处于衰退,但公司的收入却疯狂增长,或者公司本年收入突然大幅高于以往收入,就要当心是不是有虚增收入的可能性。第二种是虚减成本。如果当期利润不太好,那么有的公司会推后确认费用,甚至少计甚至不计费用来粉饰业绩。如果企业存在成本、费用快速下降的情况,就要观察企业是不是有虚减成本的嫌疑。第三种是虚增资产,在农林牧渔行业比较常见,最典型的就是 “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002069\">獐子岛</a>的扇贝跑了”这种事。如果公司的资产科目出现异常变化或者不合逻辑的增长,就要提高警惕了。</p><p><strong>Q4、有一些个股,各项财务指标符合价值投资理念,为何一直没有起色?</strong></p><p>短期判断股价光看财务指标是不行的,既不是充分条件,也不是绝对的必要条件。财务指标是静态的,但股价得看动态的成长性。</p><p><strong>Q5、大宗商品的基本面如何?现在还能投资吗?</strong></p><p>目前经济正处于从衰退后期到复苏前期的过渡阶段,大宗商品原则上属于复苏期资产,是有一定机会的。但是长期基本面有问题,弹性肯定没有之前大,而且投机炒作的风险很大。从需求端来看,工业化后期+地产存量时代不需要那么多大宗商品,尤其是工业品,复苏前期需求可能短暂回暖,但长期看空。从供给端来看,去产能速度放缓,不存在像2016年支持价格大涨的基础。</p><p><strong>Q6、5G是国家新基建支持的产业,为什么A股市场以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000063\">中兴通讯</a>为代表的通信板块还在下跌呢?</strong></p><p>外部来看,近期中美贸易摩擦有升级的迹象,美国对以华为为代表的中国科技公司制裁力度加大,可能影响5G发展的整体节奏。内部来看,我国信息产业虽然有政策支持,但是很多领域比较薄弱,一些核心半导体制造材料、设备等都还受制于人,这不是喊口号就能迅速解决的。估值来看,新基建产业相关公司大多是科技股,国内科技股前期涨幅较大,估值大多处于高位,安全边际比较差。我们在前期的直播中也说到,虽然5G赛道没问题,但是内部细分领域分化会比较大,要选优质龙头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00763\">中兴通讯</a>表现不好主要是因为受到制裁。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204900654v246a54w3eg8l2r\"/><p><strong>往期问答精选</strong></p><p><strong>Q1、央行再次定向降准0.5个百分点,对市场有何影响?</strong></p><p><strong>Q2、MLF到期未续作,利率没变,下一步货币政策怎么看?</strong></p><p><strong>Q3、4月经济数据出炉,有哪些亮点值得关注?</strong></p><p><strong>Q4、美联储声明拒绝实施负利率,美国经济和市场会怎么走?</strong></p><p><strong>Q5、广州房贷最低降至4.65%,对房价有何影响?</strong></p><p>Q6、央行出台30条金融政策支持粤港澳大湾区,怎么看大湾区的长期价值?</p><p>Q7、当前时点,哪些资产属于衰退资产,哪些是复苏资产?</p><p>Q8、如何看待当前的银行保险板块?</p><p><strong>……</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204901365v2466vl1s2cotcu\"/><p><strong>扫码加入会员,向导师提问</strong></p><p><strong>▼</strong><strong>▼▼</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200520204904093v246nsoavpaae2b\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财富内参:LPR没降息有何影响?光刻胶大涨怎么看?大宗商品现在能投资吗?如何规避下一个瑞幸?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财富内参:LPR没降息有何影响?光刻胶大涨怎么看?大宗商品现在能投资吗?如何规避下一个瑞幸?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 20:47 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005202049057a730009&s=b><strong>如是金融研究院</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>《财富内参》是财富指北社群会员的专属内部报告,文字版交易日每天更新,音频版每周3-5期,欢迎扫码收听。本期内参根据5月19-20日的会员问答和市场热点整理而成。Q1、5月LPR报价利率不变,降息暂停释放了什么重要信号?今天公布的5月LPR报价利率选择了按兵不动,1年期LPR3.85%,5年期LPR4.65%。因为前面的MLF并没有降价,所以LPR没降价也在预期之中,这其中释放出一个我们近期反复提示...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005202049057a730009&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9c33d568670903493bfffd7f24eb14e","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","LK":"瑞幸咖啡","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202005202049057a730009&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2036284811","content_text":"《财富内参》是财富指北社群会员的专属内部报告,文字版交易日每天更新,音频版每周3-5期,欢迎扫码收听。本期内参根据5月19-20日的会员问答和市场热点整理而成。Q1、5月LPR报价利率不变,降息暂停释放了什么重要信号?今天公布的5月LPR报价利率选择了按兵不动,1年期LPR3.85%,5年期LPR4.65%。因为前面的MLF并没有降价,所以LPR没降价也在预期之中,这其中释放出一个我们近期反复提示的信号,货币政策和流动性环境正在悄然发生变化,从量的宽松转向质的宽松。钱不在多,能惠及实体就行。接下来降息降准还会有,但重点已经转向信用的扩张,这就是经济进入衰退后期的典型特征,相应的大类资产也会随之产生轮动,我们前几天的策略会和今天的微课堂都讲了这个问题,感兴趣的可以去听下。Q2、为什么最近光刻胶板块强势上涨?科技股投资需要注意什么?昨天光刻胶板块领涨科技股,很多会员朋友也比较关注。光刻胶板块上涨还是国产替代的逻辑。一方面,光刻胶属于半导体材料,而材料是半导体产业的基石,在芯片制造中的地位非常重要。另一方面,光刻胶技术壁垒很高,全球高端光刻胶市场几乎被日美韩垄断,我国在这一块是非常薄弱的,基本依赖进口。现在外部面临着全球疫情加上美国制裁升级,国内半导体企业有核心原材料断供的风险,半导体材料这一块的国产替代动力最强,同时也是国家大基金二期投资的重点对象。未来3年国内新建晶圆厂迎来投产高峰期,给光刻胶打开了最佳代替窗口,发展空间比较大。但需要注意的是,昨天我们在直播中也跟大家讲到,做科技股投资的时候赛道好不代表个股就好,科技股整体估值也处于高位,风险还是很高的。而且现在大部分好的科技股都不在A股上市,所以还是要谨慎选择一些拥有核心技术,安全边际高的优质龙头。我们更新了大基金二期相关公司现在的基本面情况,供大家参考。Q3、瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假面临强制退市,如何辨别公司是否有财务造假的嫌疑?5月19日晚间,瑞幸咖啡发布公告称公司于5月15日收到纳斯达克交易所的退市通知,公司计划就此举行听证会。自4月初瑞幸咖啡涉嫌财务造假事件后,公司股价闪崩,暴跌80%以上。目前股票正处于停牌状态中,市值仅剩近11亿。反观国内,目前对于财务造假的处罚相对较轻,近年来A股市场上财务造假的问题有愈演愈烈之势。从2008年至今共有近220家上市公司涉嫌财务造假,广大投资者深受其害。给大家简单介绍一下最常见的三种财务造假手段:第一种是虚增收入。大多数是通过虚构业务、伪造合同实现的。瑞幸就是通过虚增收入夸大了22亿人民币的营业额。如果一个公司所在的行业整体处于衰退,但公司的收入却疯狂增长,或者公司本年收入突然大幅高于以往收入,就要当心是不是有虚增收入的可能性。第二种是虚减成本。如果当期利润不太好,那么有的公司会推后确认费用,甚至少计甚至不计费用来粉饰业绩。如果企业存在成本、费用快速下降的情况,就要观察企业是不是有虚减成本的嫌疑。第三种是虚增资产,在农林牧渔行业比较常见,最典型的就是 “獐子岛的扇贝跑了”这种事。如果公司的资产科目出现异常变化或者不合逻辑的增长,就要提高警惕了。Q4、有一些个股,各项财务指标符合价值投资理念,为何一直没有起色?短期判断股价光看财务指标是不行的,既不是充分条件,也不是绝对的必要条件。财务指标是静态的,但股价得看动态的成长性。Q5、大宗商品的基本面如何?现在还能投资吗?目前经济正处于从衰退后期到复苏前期的过渡阶段,大宗商品原则上属于复苏期资产,是有一定机会的。但是长期基本面有问题,弹性肯定没有之前大,而且投机炒作的风险很大。从需求端来看,工业化后期+地产存量时代不需要那么多大宗商品,尤其是工业品,复苏前期需求可能短暂回暖,但长期看空。从供给端来看,去产能速度放缓,不存在像2016年支持价格大涨的基础。Q6、5G是国家新基建支持的产业,为什么A股市场以中兴通讯为代表的通信板块还在下跌呢?外部来看,近期中美贸易摩擦有升级的迹象,美国对以华为为代表的中国科技公司制裁力度加大,可能影响5G发展的整体节奏。内部来看,我国信息产业虽然有政策支持,但是很多领域比较薄弱,一些核心半导体制造材料、设备等都还受制于人,这不是喊口号就能迅速解决的。估值来看,新基建产业相关公司大多是科技股,国内科技股前期涨幅较大,估值大多处于高位,安全边际比较差。我们在前期的直播中也说到,虽然5G赛道没问题,但是内部细分领域分化会比较大,要选优质龙头。中兴通讯表现不好主要是因为受到制裁。往期问答精选Q1、央行再次定向降准0.5个百分点,对市场有何影响?Q2、MLF到期未续作,利率没变,下一步货币政策怎么看?Q3、4月经济数据出炉,有哪些亮点值得关注?Q4、美联储声明拒绝实施负利率,美国经济和市场会怎么走?Q5、广州房贷最低降至4.65%,对房价有何影响?Q6、央行出台30条金融政策支持粤港澳大湾区,怎么看大湾区的长期价值?Q7、当前时点,哪些资产属于衰退资产,哪些是复苏资产?Q8、如何看待当前的银行保险板块?……扫码加入会员,向导师提问▼▼▼","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927677174,"gmtCreate":1588865379598,"gmtModify":1704178740286,"author":{"id":"3535170070848615","authorId":"3535170070848615","name":"MarkBonBon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c2e2850657c89c5b63fb6b8b645cab1","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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