老大虎张嘴的个人主页 - 老虎社区

老大虎张嘴

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：江苏

27关注

5粉丝

3主题

0勋章

老大虎张嘴

10-19

$蔚来(NIO)$ 跌你是第一，涨你是倒一

老大虎张嘴

07-04

$蔚来(NIO)$ 出了行业盘有巨大利好消息 G开头国家的.

老大虎张嘴

06-12

$蔚来(NIO)$ 盲猜6月3-9日的周销量？一般周一就发布了，现在都周三了哪都没消息. A.5000 B.6000 C.7000 D.8000 （不建议选）

老大虎张嘴

06-12

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 大家就不能努力下下2500吗

老大虎张嘴

05-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ 蔚来从来不是短期主义，如果没有投入那么多研发、没有投入那么多换电站充电桩、把这些钱都搞成大屏幕跟沙发还有冰箱.相信在资本市场更受青睐。绝大多数用户对蔚来的评价还是正面的，蔚来用户的转介绍销售数据也是同行间排名靠前的.为了做补能生态与技术的投入所耗费大量资金在资本市场短期内是被否定这点相当遗憾。但是大家还记得5年前大多车评人与路人对蔚来的评价么？现在肯定的声音比以前要好太多。

老大虎张嘴

05-22

$蔚来(NIO)$ 猜个5月交付

老大虎张嘴

01-25

JUST JUAN

2024买车很危险？三大车企疯狂“爆雷”、大裁员，新能源淘汰赛今年第一枪打响

老大虎张嘴

01-22

$蔚来(NIO)$ $理想汽车(LI)$ $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ $京东(JD)$ $百度(BIDU)$ 失信致大A港股滑铁卢，致中概遭遇国际有色眼光对待，看看最近所有中概吧。虽然国内EV行业太卷造成蔚小理等出头遥遥无期，但是最重要的原因是国内政企普遍失信，造成国际带上有色眼镜。不在乎点赞，只想了解是否有人也是同样观点。

老大虎张嘴

2023-12-26

$蔚来(NIO)$ 看空的有本事真的做空，并且把甩空单出来。

老大虎张嘴

2023-12-21

$蔚来(NIO)$ 是不是利好太多麻木了...

老大虎张嘴

2023-12-21

$蔚来(NIO)$ 大家自己判断

老大虎张嘴

2022-03-13

意义J：*UN（8i8局uuuu就&dxiujgg不出成绩8%以后&u桂湖有，guhh_gyxcyhcxuuuugxgyu*h&hhqx*ju翠玉uu

抱歉，原内容已删除

老大虎张嘴

2022-03-13

uhy% cy_h;%X6VVYCYG nuo严你干脆成都花园%*%会喜欢加好友%额啊啊西哇啊～教教我～waFUUCUCUIJU7GJU/U_8UUUUJUVUCY、U&UYHHUIIJIU*

伦镍逼仓背后的流动性拐点与系统性风险

老大虎张嘴

2022-02-04

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来你加个电吧别把韭菜们都熬死了

老大虎张嘴

2021-11-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$时代终结了，后面有更糟消息

老大虎张嘴

2021-11-15

$蔚来(NIO)$节奏是真不好...还涨的时候遇大盘跌，大盘上的时候也带不动该跌的你...咋整

老大虎张嘴

2021-11-04

是交付，不是销量...你这也是醉了

为了ET7“顺产”，蔚来必须“卧薪尝胆”

老大虎张嘴

2021-10-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$劳斯莱斯明天打电话要退了，还说今天再等等看...哎两天一辆劳没了艹

老大虎张嘴

2021-09-06

$蔚来(NIO)$都等着国庆前提车

老大虎张嘴

2021-07-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$出金啊出金

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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都拿美金了还用A股思维"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316032127778872,"gmtCreate":1718171363846,"gmtModify":1718171366070,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>盲猜6月3-9日的周销量？一般周一就发布了，现在都周三了 哪都没消息. 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A.5000 B.6000 C.7000 D.8000 （不建议选）","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316032127778872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473997100912926","authorId":"3473997100912926","name":"凌晨12点","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef7a155d31e9575811bd4bb306c025e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473997100912926","authorIdStr":"3473997100912926"},"content":"蔚来哪次不是雷声大雨点小？。我拿蔚来3年了。对蔚来太了解了。每次起来点量就一堆人自嗨，下个月就原形毕露。","text":"蔚来哪次不是雷声大雨点小？。我拿蔚来3年了。对蔚来太了解了。每次起来点量就一堆人自嗨，下个月就原形毕露。","html":"蔚来哪次不是雷声大雨点小？。我拿蔚来3年了。对蔚来太了解了。每次起来点量就一堆人自嗨，下个月就原形毕露。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315939022876744,"gmtCreate":1718164380048,"gmtModify":1718164381237,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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但是大家还记得5年前大多车评人与路人对蔚来的评价么？现在肯定的声音比以前要好太多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309411157733504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308672520179824,"gmtCreate":1716387245360,"gmtModify":1716387246759,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>猜个5月交付","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$&nbsp;</a>猜个5月交付","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 猜个5月交付","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308672520179824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"content":"4月销售15600辆，算一半放在5月交付 即 7800辆；5月前两周销售8000辆（预计5月底之前交付）. 推算5月总交付7800+8000=15800辆 .大家看看对不对。","text":"4月销售15600辆，算一半放在5月交付 即 7800辆；5月前两周销售8000辆（预计5月底之前交付）. 推算5月总交付7800+8000=15800辆 .大家看看对不对。","html":"4月销售15600辆，算一半放在5月交付 即 7800辆；5月前两周销售8000辆（预计5月底之前交付）. 推算5月总交付7800+8000=15800辆 .大家看看对不对。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":266844847554800,"gmtCreate":1706157145867,"gmtModify":1706157147234,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"JUST JUAN","listText":"JUST JUAN","text":"JUST JUAN","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/266844847554800","repostId":"2406044544","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2406044544","pubTimestamp":1706140256,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2406044544?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-25 07:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"2024买车很危险？三大车企疯狂“爆雷”、大裁员，新能源淘汰赛今年第一枪打响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2406044544","media":"极果","summary":"过去一年，整个车市厮杀异常疯狂，外资油车集体大降价，国产新能源疯狂堆料卷配置，拼价格。此外，还有网络爆料称，元旦假期第一天晚上高合汽车发公告称，取消员工的餐补、交通补贴、公司班车等福利。1月3日，根据乘联会发布2023年12月份新能源车企销量榜单来看，高合汽车仅卖出564辆汽车，排名倒数第二。","content":"<html><body><p>过去一年，整个车市厮杀异常疯狂，外资油车集体大降价，国产新能源疯狂堆料卷配置，拼价格。</p><p>当浪潮退去后，大家赌的就是谁还能在明天站起来，把对手都拖垮，因此今年更是被称为新能源车品牌的大洗牌之年，许多无法盈利的车企将面临被淘汰的风险。</p><p>在此绝境下，“卷王”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>竟然“落井下石”又带头降价了，对Model 3/Y后轮驱动版及长续航版的售价下调6500至15500元不等，调整后，焕新版Model 3及Model Y迎来国内市场的史上最低价。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>紧接着，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、理想、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等车企纷纷跟进降价，还有领克、一汽丰田、吉利等品牌都针对旗下多款车型“明降暗降”，价格大战一触即发。</p><p>但是降价换来的销量上涨，往往会导致盈亏进一步失衡，甚至有部分车企卖一辆亏一辆，陷入不健康发展的循环中，一旦再失去资本支持，就会陷入万劫不复之地。前车之鉴实在太多了，威马、前途、奇点等品牌都已先后倒下。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>因此，大家除了关心价格之外也都在“吃瓜”，吃什么瓜？谁会是2024年车市里第一个倒下的品牌，现在答案似乎已经呼之欲出了。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>咱们第一个盘的品牌就是高合，作为造车新势力中赫赫有名的存在，其首款产品的最高售价达到了80万元，是中国本土新创汽车品牌中单车售价最高的一家公司。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>然而这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>品牌最近的日子却不太好过，元旦期间有多名博主晒出一张截图，内容显示称“高合所有工作暂停，包括停止发货、停止新项目开发，做好起诉准备工作”等。</p><p>此外，还有网络爆料称，元旦假期第一天晚上高合汽车发公告称，取消员工的餐补、交通补贴、公司班车等福利。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>没过多久，高合汽车就紧急发声，对外回应称这些传言都是“谣言”，而高合汽车内部人士也称，工作一切正常。</p><p>从网友发帖时间到高合汽车回应，中间仅仅隔了两个小时，高合汽车这态度看起来有点着急。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>然而这也不是高合第一次被曝内部出现问题了，去年10月份，网络上还传出了“高合汽车裁员20%自救”的消息，并且在职员工也要降薪，连续3个月只发两三千块钱的最低工资。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>如果说内部裁员还有转圜的余地，那么销量上的打击却是致命的。1月3日，根据乘联会发布2023年12月份新能源车企销量榜单来看，高合汽车仅卖出564辆汽车，排名倒数第二。</p><p>不仅如此，近期HiPhiX的销量几乎跌至谷底，根据新车交强险购买数统计，2023年8-10月，高合HiPhi X的上险量分别跌到了5台、9台和4台，已经连续三个月在个位数徘徊。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>高合的现状，也引发了大量网友们的猜疑，有的表示“年底了，供应商开始催款了，大概率就是回款的事。</p><p>而且还有网友支招，表示高合可以走蔚来的路子，虽然都是持续亏损但蔚来总能一直融到钱。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>但融资并没有这么简单，去年高合和沙特阿拉伯投资部签署一份56亿美元的协议（约合人民币400.4亿），双方将成立从事汽车研发、制造与销售的合资企业，本以为这笔投资下去高合未来会有起色。</p><p>但随后有媒体曝光，这几十亿中东投资实际并没有到账，华人运通并未在官方渠道公布过“400亿元”中东注资相关信息，这份备忘录只是表示双方达成了初步的意向，高合也并未对此进行说明。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>销量低迷、裁员传闻“缠身”，加上供应链资金出现大问题，让高合停产的消息越发甚嚣尘上，但高合此后却一直没有正面回应。</p><p>直到1月15号，有疑似高合员工发了篇帖子澄清：“高合工资准时发了，公司一切运营正常。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>但这个澄清话术网友似乎并不买账，表示高合去年就是这么玩的。</p><p>看来高合想要撑过2024年，这笔400亿投资得赶紧到账了。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>说完了高合，下一个就轮到了哪咤汽车。</p><p>它和高合较为坎坷的发展经历不一样，哪咤汽车也曾辉煌过，甚至一度以15.2万辆的年销量，夺得2022年新势力销量排行榜的冠军。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>然而好景不长，2023年哪咤汽车的销量开始大幅下滑，全年仅交12.74万辆，相比2022年的15.2万辆减少了2万多辆，刚过去的12月更是仅交付新车5135辆，环比下滑58.9%，成为单月销量下滑最严重的新势力车企。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>不仅仅12月份的销量惨淡，2024年第一周前十中也没有哪咤，跌出了前十，仅仅一年时间就面临如此大的落差，哪咤到底哪一步走错了呢？</p><p>有人认为，哪咤汽车销量下滑的根本原因是缺乏爆款车型。最开始，哪咤汽车是靠着哪咤V这款10万元以下的产品成功出圈打开了市场，然而从2022年底开始，哪咤V的对手开始大量涌现，像比亚迪海鸥、五菱缤果、广汽的埃安Y等。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>到了2022年下半年，哪咤开始冲击高端市场，推出哪咤S，售价区间覆盖了30万元价位；2023年4月，哪咤汽车发布了号称“200万内最好的跑车”哪咤GT，售价区间为17.88万元至22.68万元。</p><p>但面对特斯拉、极氪这样的对手，哪咤冲击高端的路变得异常艰难，两款车的市场反响皆不佳，虽然后来还采取了降价换量的激进措施，但哪咤S销量依旧未能破3千台，反而背上了“背刺”老车主的骂名。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>而且质量问题的频繁暴雷也让哪咤汽车的品牌信用大大降低，从哪咤汽车的车主吐槽来看，很多车主都提到了续航不行，车机小问题多，加速也一般。</p><p>在黑猫上，截至2024年1月10日，哪咤汽车累计相关投诉780条，近30天投诉量为31条。产品质量质疑也是焦点。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>目前还有业内人士透露，哪咤汽车的毛利只有5%，反观像小鹏、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>等品牌都将毛利率控制在12-13%左右，可见哪咤汽车完全是走以价换量、以本伤人的路线，通过不断烧钱来压低售价，抬高销量。</p><p>但在这样的情况下，哪咤很难有更多的资金去投入研发，没有独家的核心技术，又无法冲击高端获得利润，哪咤汽车目前像是陷入了恶性循环。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>好在今年，哪咤似乎有意做出改变，刚开年就公开了一则巨大的人事变动，整个哪咤的营销、市场、用户、销售等部门的团队框架均大幅调整。</p><p>原本负责哪咤营销的“一二把手”江峰和李长河离职，张勇正式接任担任营销一把手。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>整体来看，哪咤汽车似乎成也性价比，败也性价比，不知道在今年换了主帅之后，能否再力挽狂澜呢？</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>最后这个汽车品牌就更有意思了，曾经背靠上汽，还请过周杰伦代言，却一直鲜为人知，直到大面积裁员的新闻曝光，才让这个品牌登上了舆论风口浪尖站在了大家面前，它就是飞凡汽车。</p><p>1月11日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600104\">上汽集团</a>宣布，上汽集团副总裁吴冰不再兼任上汽乘用车分公司总经理、飞凡汽车CEO，由原<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600741\">华域汽车</a>总经理王骏接任。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>换帅还不是最关键的，近日有网友爆料称，上汽研发总院飞凡品牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>驾驶业务开发团队PP-CEM的负责人Pia Hu已经离职，飞凡智驾团队全部裁撤，约近三百人受影响。</p><p>对此，上汽飞凡汽车官方部门还没有给出具体回应，也有待官方的进一步核实。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>如果部门遭裁撤为事实，那么智驾作为飞凡汽车产品的核心之一，连负责的部门都消失了，那么这个品牌的下一步很大概率将被边缘化...</p><p>面对这样的局面，用吴冰的一句话能得出原因：“飞凡汽车花了太多时间在产品梳理和定位上”。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>首先，频繁改名字让大家对飞凡汽车的印象不够深刻。从荣威的一个产品序列到分离成R品牌，再到独立为飞凡汽车，4年一共改了3次名字。</p><p>但真正让飞凡汽车深陷泥潭的，应该是智己汽车品牌的诞生。同为上汽打造的高端品牌，智己汽车主打30万元以上的高端市场，而飞凡汽车则主打20万~30万元之间的中高端市场，棋逢对手的情况下智己还进行了多次价格调整，对飞凡来说无异于落井下石。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>为了抢夺市场飞凡也曾做过努力，首款车型R7起售价一降再降，从22款的30.25万，到23款的27.99万，再到24款的18.99万，降价幅度超过10万，同时还增加了自动泊车、面部识别等新功能。</p><p>12月飞凡R7单车销量达到了3099辆，在一众同级别对手中名列前茅。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>但降价并不是长久之举，汽车产品力不足的问题也一直被诟病，曾经飞凡F7另一大亮点就是拥有与蔚来类似体验的换电功能，具备“2分半快速换电”的能力，但事实上，不少车主购买新车之后却面临无电可换的情况。</p><p>据飞凡官网可查在上海地区飞凡仅有个位数的换电站，作为对比，蔚来在上海已经布局超过120个换电站。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>在第三方投诉平台上，与飞凡汽车相关的投诉也很多，比如飞凡ER6和MARVEL R还出现了诸如气囊故障灯报警、空调蒸发箱箱体溺水、车机系统无法升级、车机互联手机APP无法更新车辆信息、经销商不兑现购车补贴等一系列问题。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>其实飞凡汽车出身传统车企，拥有更好的资源和供应链理应不会被市场埋没，却还是难免走向落寞。如果未来还不能打造出能够直击用户痛点的爆款车型，飞凡汽车恐怕真的要“废凡”了。</p><p>更何况，飞凡汽车方面智驾部门作为3年投入10亿研发的智驾体系，就此告别历史舞台也尤为可惜。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>最后，从整体来看今年价格战丝毫没有停歇的迹象，车企间的激烈竞争进一步白热化，新势力造车依旧在面临“九死一生”的局面，目前已经倒下的新势力已经有几十个了。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>有人春风得意，但也一定有人正在摇摇欲坠，那么你觉得还会有哪些品牌会在2024年“暴雷”呢？</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2024买车很危险？三大车企疯狂“爆雷”、大裁员，新能源淘汰赛今年第一枪打响</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2024买车很危险？三大车企疯狂“爆雷”、大裁员，新能源淘汰赛今年第一枪打响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-25 07:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8WcjkfSu2De><strong>极果</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去一年，整个车市厮杀异常疯狂，外资油车集体大降价，国产新能源疯狂堆料卷配置，拼价格。当浪潮退去后，大家赌的就是谁还能在明天站起来，把对手都拖垮，因此今年更是被称为新能源车品牌的大洗牌之年，许多无法盈利的车企将面临被淘汰的风险。在此绝境下，“卷王”特斯拉竟然“落井下石”又带头降价了，对Model 3/Y后轮驱动版及长续航版的售价下调6500至15500元不等，调整后，焕新版Model 3及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8WcjkfSu2De\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4509":"腾讯概念"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8WcjkfSu2De","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2406044544","content_text":"过去一年，整个车市厮杀异常疯狂，外资油车集体大降价，国产新能源疯狂堆料卷配置，拼价格。当浪潮退去后，大家赌的就是谁还能在明天站起来，把对手都拖垮，因此今年更是被称为新能源车品牌的大洗牌之年，许多无法盈利的车企将面临被淘汰的风险。在此绝境下，“卷王”特斯拉竟然“落井下石”又带头降价了，对Model 3/Y后轮驱动版及长续航版的售价下调6500至15500元不等，调整后，焕新版Model 3及Model Y迎来国内市场的史上最低价。紧接着，蔚来、理想、比亚迪等车企纷纷跟进降价，还有领克、一汽丰田、吉利等品牌都针对旗下多款车型“明降暗降”，价格大战一触即发。但是降价换来的销量上涨，往往会导致盈亏进一步失衡，甚至有部分车企卖一辆亏一辆，陷入不健康发展的循环中，一旦再失去资本支持，就会陷入万劫不复之地。前车之鉴实在太多了，威马、前途、奇点等品牌都已先后倒下。因此，大家除了关心价格之外也都在“吃瓜”，吃什么瓜？谁会是2024年车市里第一个倒下的品牌，现在答案似乎已经呼之欲出了。咱们第一个盘的品牌就是高合，作为造车新势力中赫赫有名的存在，其首款产品的最高售价达到了80万元，是中国本土新创汽车品牌中单车售价最高的一家公司。然而这个豪华品牌最近的日子却不太好过，元旦期间有多名博主晒出一张截图，内容显示称“高合所有工作暂停，包括停止发货、停止新项目开发，做好起诉准备工作”等。此外，还有网络爆料称，元旦假期第一天晚上高合汽车发公告称，取消员工的餐补、交通补贴、公司班车等福利。没过多久，高合汽车就紧急发声，对外回应称这些传言都是“谣言”，而高合汽车内部人士也称，工作一切正常。从网友发帖时间到高合汽车回应，中间仅仅隔了两个小时，高合汽车这态度看起来有点着急。然而这也不是高合第一次被曝内部出现问题了，去年10月份，网络上还传出了“高合汽车裁员20%自救”的消息，并且在职员工也要降薪，连续3个月只发两三千块钱的最低工资。如果说内部裁员还有转圜的余地，那么销量上的打击却是致命的。1月3日，根据乘联会发布2023年12月份新能源车企销量榜单来看，高合汽车仅卖出564辆汽车，排名倒数第二。不仅如此，近期HiPhiX的销量几乎跌至谷底，根据新车交强险购买数统计，2023年8-10月，高合HiPhi X的上险量分别跌到了5台、9台和4台，已经连续三个月在个位数徘徊。高合的现状，也引发了大量网友们的猜疑，有的表示“年底了，供应商开始催款了，大概率就是回款的事。而且还有网友支招，表示高合可以走蔚来的路子，虽然都是持续亏损但蔚来总能一直融到钱。但融资并没有这么简单，去年高合和沙特阿拉伯投资部签署一份56亿美元的协议（约合人民币400.4亿），双方将成立从事汽车研发、制造与销售的合资企业，本以为这笔投资下去高合未来会有起色。但随后有媒体曝光，这几十亿中东投资实际并没有到账，华人运通并未在官方渠道公布过“400亿元”中东注资相关信息，这份备忘录只是表示双方达成了初步的意向，高合也并未对此进行说明。销量低迷、裁员传闻“缠身”，加上供应链资金出现大问题，让高合停产的消息越发甚嚣尘上，但高合此后却一直没有正面回应。直到1月15号，有疑似高合员工发了篇帖子澄清：“高合工资准时发了，公司一切运营正常。但这个澄清话术网友似乎并不买账，表示高合去年就是这么玩的。看来高合想要撑过2024年，这笔400亿投资得赶紧到账了。说完了高合，下一个就轮到了哪咤汽车。它和高合较为坎坷的发展经历不一样，哪咤汽车也曾辉煌过，甚至一度以15.2万辆的年销量，夺得2022年新势力销量排行榜的冠军。然而好景不长，2023年哪咤汽车的销量开始大幅下滑，全年仅交12.74万辆，相比2022年的15.2万辆减少了2万多辆，刚过去的12月更是仅交付新车5135辆，环比下滑58.9%，成为单月销量下滑最严重的新势力车企。不仅仅12月份的销量惨淡，2024年第一周前十中也没有哪咤，跌出了前十，仅仅一年时间就面临如此大的落差，哪咤到底哪一步走错了呢？有人认为，哪咤汽车销量下滑的根本原因是缺乏爆款车型。最开始，哪咤汽车是靠着哪咤V这款10万元以下的产品成功出圈打开了市场，然而从2022年底开始，哪咤V的对手开始大量涌现，像比亚迪海鸥、五菱缤果、广汽的埃安Y等。到了2022年下半年，哪咤开始冲击高端市场，推出哪咤S，售价区间覆盖了30万元价位；2023年4月，哪咤汽车发布了号称“200万内最好的跑车”哪咤GT，售价区间为17.88万元至22.68万元。但面对特斯拉、极氪这样的对手，哪咤冲击高端的路变得异常艰难，两款车的市场反响皆不佳，虽然后来还采取了降价换量的激进措施，但哪咤S销量依旧未能破3千台，反而背上了“背刺”老车主的骂名。而且质量问题的频繁暴雷也让哪咤汽车的品牌信用大大降低，从哪咤汽车的车主吐槽来看，很多车主都提到了续航不行，车机小问题多，加速也一般。在黑猫上，截至2024年1月10日，哪咤汽车累计相关投诉780条，近30天投诉量为31条。产品质量质疑也是焦点。目前还有业内人士透露，哪咤汽车的毛利只有5%，反观像小鹏、蔚来等品牌都将毛利率控制在12-13%左右，可见哪咤汽车完全是走以价换量、以本伤人的路线，通过不断烧钱来压低售价，抬高销量。但在这样的情况下，哪咤很难有更多的资金去投入研发，没有独家的核心技术，又无法冲击高端获得利润，哪咤汽车目前像是陷入了恶性循环。好在今年，哪咤似乎有意做出改变，刚开年就公开了一则巨大的人事变动，整个哪咤的营销、市场、用户、销售等部门的团队框架均大幅调整。原本负责哪咤营销的“一二把手”江峰和李长河离职，张勇正式接任担任营销一把手。整体来看，哪咤汽车似乎成也性价比，败也性价比，不知道在今年换了主帅之后，能否再力挽狂澜呢？最后这个汽车品牌就更有意思了，曾经背靠上汽，还请过周杰伦代言，却一直鲜为人知，直到大面积裁员的新闻曝光，才让这个品牌登上了舆论风口浪尖站在了大家面前，它就是飞凡汽车。1月11日，上汽集团宣布，上汽集团副总裁吴冰不再兼任上汽乘用车分公司总经理、飞凡汽车CEO，由原华域汽车总经理王骏接任。换帅还不是最关键的，近日有网友爆料称，上汽研发总院飞凡品牌智能驾驶业务开发团队PP-CEM的负责人Pia 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看空的有本事真的做空，并且把甩空单出来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256313549185288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499079576956205","authorId":"3499079576956205","name":"yashekuangre","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/932113d86da547844e4cf52942f7cddd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499079576956205","authorIdStr":"3499079576956205"},"content":"这话说的，没空单它是怎么从6 70的股价一路跌到现在这个样子的。自己骗自己有什么意思。","text":"这话说的，没空单它是怎么从6 70的股价一路跌到现在这个样子的。自己骗自己有什么意思。","html":"这话说的，没空单它是怎么从6 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是不是利好太多麻木了...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc55553b4dd5e244928a411f23f0cf7","width":"1240","height":"7018"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/254493578756168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"content":"这么多利好，股价长了一块钱.... 蔚来在美股啊，不是在A股啊.","text":"这么多利好，股价长了一块钱.... 蔚来在美股啊，不是在A股啊.","html":"这么多利好，股价长了一块钱.... 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大家自己判断","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc55553b4dd5e244928a411f23f0cf7","width":"1240","height":"7018"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/254492712907064","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635571554,"gmtCreate":1647154951726,"gmtModify":1647154951726,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"意义J：*UN（8i8局uuuu就&amp;dxiujgg不出成绩8%以后&amp;u桂湖有，guhh_gyxcyhcxuuuugxgyu*h&amp;hhqx*ju翠玉uu","listText":"意义J：*UN（8i8局uuuu就&amp;dxiujgg不出成绩8%以后&amp;u桂湖有，guhh_gyxcyhcxuuuugxgyu*h&amp;hhqx*ju翠玉uu","text":"意义J：*UN（8i8局uuuu就&dxiujgg不出成绩8%以后&u桂湖有，guhh_gyxcyhcxuuuugxgyu*h&hhqx*ju翠玉uu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635571554","repostId":"1129206766","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635571205,"gmtCreate":1647154930217,"gmtModify":1647154930217,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"uhy% cy_h;%X6VVYCYG nuo严你干脆成都花园%*%会喜欢加好友%额啊啊西哇啊～教教我～waFUUCUCUIJU7GJU/U_8UUUUJUVUCY、U&amp;UYHHUIIJIU*","listText":"uhy% cy_h;%X6VVYCYG nuo严你干脆成都花园%*%会喜欢加好友%额啊啊西哇啊～教教我～waFUUCUCUIJU7GJU/U_8UUUUJUVUCY、U&amp;UYHHUIIJIU*","text":"uhy% cy_h;%X6VVYCYG nuo严你干脆成都花园%*%会喜欢加好友%额啊啊西哇啊～教教我～waFUUCUCUIJU7GJU/U_8UUUUJUVUCY、U&UYHHUIIJIU*","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635571205","repostId":"1129206766","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129206766","pubTimestamp":1647148231,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129206766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-13 13:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伦镍逼仓背后的流动性拐点与系统性风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129206766","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"本文不想去讨论伦镍逼仓背后狙击和被狙击的博弈故事，笔者只想讨论在这样标志性的事件背后隐藏的整体环境及潜在的系统风险，类似的事情发生的时候恰恰就是资产价格尤其是大宗商品的拐点，透过发生这种标志性事件的节","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本文不想去讨论伦镍逼仓背后狙击和被狙击的博弈故事，笔者只想讨论在这样标志性的事件背后隐藏的整体环境及潜在的系统风险，类似的事情发生的时候恰恰就是资产价格尤其是大宗商品的拐点，透过发生这种标志性事件的节点，我们可以见微知著的感知到现在所处的大环境和潜在危机。</p><p>伦镍逼仓</p><p>为什么说伦镍逼仓是标志性事件呢？这就好像资产的大水池中本来深藏着各种大鱼，但当流动性的水池慢慢枯竭的时候，各种大鱼就都逐渐暴露出来，从而给了隐藏的对手方一个明确的目标，而任何一方无法凭借足够深的流动性躲闪腾挪，只能转为一对一的直接搏杀。这和当年2020年4月负油价的那一次极为相似，疫情危机后市场流动性非常紧张，于是就产生了狙击与被狙击的大环境，而一方被搏杀后行情就走到极点开始反转了，不仅是原油也是后来整个大宗商品的反转，共同大环境就是流动性极度匮乏，只是一个价格是极低点，一个是极高点。但当时是疫情的系统性危机刚刚爆发，而现在可能是潜在系统风险爆发之前。</p><p>美联储加息的步伐无论有没有通胀都会继续，而通胀是影响加息节奏而非趋势，也就是流动性收紧是必然趋势，节奏是变数。那么这个时候流动性紧张是大势所趋，俄乌冲突带来的是流动性节奏变量、但这个变量扰动非常剧烈。</p><p>现在的状态就好像一个人一步步走到了喜马拉雅山顶，本来就越来越缺氧，但突然间看到了无限风光、极度兴奋的上蹿下跳，那么他离瞬间休克倒下也就不远了。喜马拉雅山顶的极度缺氧，就是我们面临的加息缩表的流动性收紧风险，无限风光就是市场看到的俄乌冲突带来的无限机会，瞬间休克就是潜在系统性危机。</p><p><b>流动性收紧的几个驱动层次：</b></p><p>1.美联储全球美元流动性的收紧，正常节奏，因通胀而加紧收缩的节奏，但在美联储正常加息节奏的回归过程中，突然爆发俄乌冲突这样的地缘事件，而冲突的爆发从超预期的发生、到超预期的持久，一切反应都快速而剧烈，从而造成加息节奏和通胀节奏的错位，虽然美联储会竭尽全力以稳定的加息步伐、谨慎的评估来出手，但战事的快速变化、导致的通胀剧烈变化完全有可能超出它的预期，而美联储又不可能刚加息完又马上降息，这种节奏差有可能造成强烈的错位冲击，有以下几种情况：</p><p>通胀预期与逐步回落，实际利率逐步回升；这个是最完美的操作，但现在世界格局这种变化节奏，完美匹配真的有点难。那么大宗商品更可能是逐步见顶反转。</p><p>通胀预期上涨明显比利率上涨更凶猛，实际利率逐步下行，这样大宗商品和其他资产价格还是要持续上涨。</p><p>通胀迅速回落、名义利率迅速上涨，实际利率迅速上升；这种情况最可怕，尤其市场本来认为战事结束尘埃落地，能够安心喘口气，结果流动性风险造成的更大危机还在后面。一旦来了就是真的系统性的大危机。</p><p>2.金融机构资金成本风险溢价</p><p>现在的金融机构和央行一样深刻意识到现在的经济下行、风险叠加的状态，因此在信贷中资金成本的风险溢价就会比平时更高，或者以信贷供应量下降来体现，这就更加剧了从美联储、欧央行、英格兰银行等准备加息或已经加息的宏观流动性收紧后，中观流动性的进一步紧张，到了金融市场也会如此，要知道各大金融市场、尤其在境外大宗商品和外汇等市场都是要通过银行或投行来做broker，中间所谓的授信也就是金融机构给与的流动性就会越来越受到抑制，无论多头空头都会受到制约。</p><p>3.交易增加保证金的收紧</p><p>在同样了解这样的系统风险状态的交易所，就更加会提前做出风险防范，增加各种品种的保证金比例，从而更进一步加剧了流动性的紧缩。尤其是作为上市的盈利机构，欧美的交易所更是如此。如果去了解一下像CME中央对手方清算机制（CCP），本身就是为了抑制系统性风险，就会更早开始增加保证金收紧流动性，促使极端行情更早趋向结束。</p><p><b>当前流动性的核心指标所处的状态：</b></p><p>图：LIBOR-OIS体现的美元流动性风险紧张的两个极端时刻-负油价时期和伦镍逼仓时期</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09bc9360e0cf2701bf782bc805c1a6d6\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><i>数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion</i></p><p>图：TED利差所体现的美元流动性风险更是在两个极端时刻到了类似的水平</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63a11e59e6f25c4e1ed90620f847fee8\" tg-width=\"719\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><i>数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion</i></p><p>图：欧洲流动性3M 1Y期的EURIBO也在迅速上升、逼近2020年3月疫情的高点</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75dbd0c2fd8be1fa4867d3714228a4b0\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><i>数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion</i></p><p>我们可以发现，现在市场迅猛上升的流动性压力，已经到达或者正在接近2020年4月危机爆发前的流动性水平，而且只要加息缩表和地缘危机持续，这种压力只会增加。在各个金融市场已经开始显现，尤其是bid-ask越来越大的价差观察到的美债市场更是如此，这会蔓延到货币市场，进而传导到股市、大宗商品等各个市场。</p><p><b>最后可能是哪种模式演绎呢？</b></p><p>从现在联储的表态和战事的状况来看，更可能的模式是第一种和第三种，或者以第一种温和的方式完成就是资产的拐点，商品价格在联储加息压力下和流动性枯竭逐步增加情况下缓慢见顶。</p><p>或者以第三种暴虐的方式完成就是系统危机，那个时候资产价格大幅跳空暴涨暴跌，多数品种更倾向暴跌来兑现，即使之前盈利的头寸也未必有机会能够平仓兑现收益。因为补保证金而带来的更进一步的流动性紧张、交易所增加保证金带来得连锁效应就会形成螺旋的负反馈，下跌就很明显了。和供需、利润等等基本面都无关，只是流动性匮乏以一种极端的方式体现在资产价格上。</p><p>最后现在瞬息万变的市场，我们在加息节奏和地缘局势的同时，还要随时观察流动性的变化，判断市场变化。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伦镍逼仓背后的流动性拐点与系统性风险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伦镍逼仓背后的流动性拐点与系统性风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-13 13:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3654087?layout=wscn-layout><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文不想去讨论伦镍逼仓背后狙击和被狙击的博弈故事，笔者只想讨论在这样标志性的事件背后隐藏的整体环境及潜在的系统风险，类似的事情发生的时候恰恰就是资产价格尤其是大宗商品的拐点，透过发生这种标志性事件的节点，我们可以见微知著的感知到现在所处的大环境和潜在危机。伦镍逼仓为什么说伦镍逼仓是标志性事件呢？这就好像资产的大水池中本来深藏着各种大鱼，但当流动性的水池慢慢枯竭的时候，各种大鱼就都逐渐暴露出来，从而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3654087?layout=wscn-layout\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{"JJN":"镍ETN-iPath"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/premium/articles/3654087?layout=wscn-layout","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1129206766","content_text":"本文不想去讨论伦镍逼仓背后狙击和被狙击的博弈故事，笔者只想讨论在这样标志性的事件背后隐藏的整体环境及潜在的系统风险，类似的事情发生的时候恰恰就是资产价格尤其是大宗商品的拐点，透过发生这种标志性事件的节点，我们可以见微知著的感知到现在所处的大环境和潜在危机。伦镍逼仓为什么说伦镍逼仓是标志性事件呢？这就好像资产的大水池中本来深藏着各种大鱼，但当流动性的水池慢慢枯竭的时候，各种大鱼就都逐渐暴露出来，从而给了隐藏的对手方一个明确的目标，而任何一方无法凭借足够深的流动性躲闪腾挪，只能转为一对一的直接搏杀。这和当年2020年4月负油价的那一次极为相似，疫情危机后市场流动性非常紧张，于是就产生了狙击与被狙击的大环境，而一方被搏杀后行情就走到极点开始反转了，不仅是原油也是后来整个大宗商品的反转，共同大环境就是流动性极度匮乏，只是一个价格是极低点，一个是极高点。但当时是疫情的系统性危机刚刚爆发，而现在可能是潜在系统风险爆发之前。美联储加息的步伐无论有没有通胀都会继续，而通胀是影响加息节奏而非趋势，也就是流动性收紧是必然趋势，节奏是变数。那么这个时候流动性紧张是大势所趋，俄乌冲突带来的是流动性节奏变量、但这个变量扰动非常剧烈。现在的状态就好像一个人一步步走到了喜马拉雅山顶，本来就越来越缺氧，但突然间看到了无限风光、极度兴奋的上蹿下跳，那么他离瞬间休克倒下也就不远了。喜马拉雅山顶的极度缺氧，就是我们面临的加息缩表的流动性收紧风险，无限风光就是市场看到的俄乌冲突带来的无限机会，瞬间休克就是潜在系统性危机。流动性收紧的几个驱动层次：1.美联储全球美元流动性的收紧，正常节奏，因通胀而加紧收缩的节奏，但在美联储正常加息节奏的回归过程中，突然爆发俄乌冲突这样的地缘事件，而冲突的爆发从超预期的发生、到超预期的持久，一切反应都快速而剧烈，从而造成加息节奏和通胀节奏的错位，虽然美联储会竭尽全力以稳定的加息步伐、谨慎的评估来出手，但战事的快速变化、导致的通胀剧烈变化完全有可能超出它的预期，而美联储又不可能刚加息完又马上降息，这种节奏差有可能造成强烈的错位冲击，有以下几种情况：通胀预期与逐步回落，实际利率逐步回升；这个是最完美的操作，但现在世界格局这种变化节奏，完美匹配真的有点难。那么大宗商品更可能是逐步见顶反转。通胀预期上涨明显比利率上涨更凶猛，实际利率逐步下行，这样大宗商品和其他资产价格还是要持续上涨。通胀迅速回落、名义利率迅速上涨，实际利率迅速上升；这种情况最可怕，尤其市场本来认为战事结束尘埃落地，能够安心喘口气，结果流动性风险造成的更大危机还在后面。一旦来了就是真的系统性的大危机。2.金融机构资金成本风险溢价现在的金融机构和央行一样深刻意识到现在的经济下行、风险叠加的状态，因此在信贷中资金成本的风险溢价就会比平时更高，或者以信贷供应量下降来体现，这就更加剧了从美联储、欧央行、英格兰银行等准备加息或已经加息的宏观流动性收紧后，中观流动性的进一步紧张，到了金融市场也会如此，要知道各大金融市场、尤其在境外大宗商品和外汇等市场都是要通过银行或投行来做broker，中间所谓的授信也就是金融机构给与的流动性就会越来越受到抑制，无论多头空头都会受到制约。3.交易增加保证金的收紧在同样了解这样的系统风险状态的交易所，就更加会提前做出风险防范，增加各种品种的保证金比例，从而更进一步加剧了流动性的紧缩。尤其是作为上市的盈利机构，欧美的交易所更是如此。如果去了解一下像CME中央对手方清算机制（CCP），本身就是为了抑制系统性风险，就会更早开始增加保证金收紧流动性，促使极端行情更早趋向结束。当前流动性的核心指标所处的状态：图：LIBOR-OIS体现的美元流动性风险紧张的两个极端时刻-负油价时期和伦镍逼仓时期数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion图：TED利差所体现的美元流动性风险更是在两个极端时刻到了类似的水平数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion图：欧洲流动性3M 1Y期的EURIBO也在迅速上升、逼近2020年3月疫情的高点数据来源：Refinitiv Ekion我们可以发现，现在市场迅猛上升的流动性压力，已经到达或者正在接近2020年4月危机爆发前的流动性水平，而且只要加息缩表和地缘危机持续，这种压力只会增加。在各个金融市场已经开始显现，尤其是bid-ask越来越大的价差观察到的美债市场更是如此，这会蔓延到货币市场，进而传导到股市、大宗商品等各个市场。最后可能是哪种模式演绎呢？从现在联储的表态和战事的状况来看，更可能的模式是第一种和第三种，或者以第一种温和的方式完成就是资产的拐点，商品价格在联储加息压力下和流动性枯竭逐步增加情况下缓慢见顶。或者以第三种暴虐的方式完成就是系统危机，那个时候资产价格大幅跳空暴涨暴跌，多数品种更倾向暴跌来兑现，即使之前盈利的头寸也未必有机会能够平仓兑现收益。因为补保证金而带来的更进一步的流动性紧张、交易所增加保证金带来得连锁效应就会形成螺旋的负反馈，下跌就很明显了。和供需、利润等等基本面都无关，只是流动性匮乏以一种极端的方式体现在资产价格上。最后现在瞬息万变的市场，我们在加息节奏和地缘局势的同时，还要随时观察流动性的变化，判断市场变化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633610192,"gmtCreate":1643986224224,"gmtModify":1643986224224,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来 你加个电吧 别把韭菜们都熬死了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来 你加个电吧 别把韭菜们都熬死了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来 你加个电吧 别把韭菜们都熬死了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633610192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875314522,"gmtCreate":1637602390511,"gmtModify":1637602390511,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>时代终结了，后面有更糟消息&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>时代终结了，后面有更糟消息&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$时代终结了，后面有更糟消息","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875314522","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871098130,"gmtCreate":1636991398642,"gmtModify":1636991398642,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>节奏是真不好...还涨的时候遇大盘跌，大盘上的时候也带不动该跌的你...咋整","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>节奏是真不好...还涨的时候遇大盘跌，大盘上的时候也带不动该跌的你...咋整","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$节奏是真不好...还涨的时候遇大盘跌，大盘上的时候也带不动该跌的你...咋整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871098130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848497992,"gmtCreate":1636017807821,"gmtModify":1636017807821,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是交付，不是销量...你这也是醉了","listText":"是交付，不是销量...你这也是醉了","text":"是交付，不是销量...你这也是醉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848497992","repostId":"1134360627","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134360627","pubTimestamp":1636005916,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1134360627?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 14:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为了ET7“顺产”，蔚来必须“卧薪尝胆”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134360627","media":"雷科技","summary":"11月才刚过几天，各个新势力就抢先发布了10月份的销量，其中小鹏的数据最为出色，10月份的销量再次破万达到10138台，理想汽车屈居其后10月份销量为7649台。\n大家所期待的蔚来再次没有延续9月份破","content":"<p>11月才刚过几天，各个新势力就抢先发布了10月份的销量，其中小鹏的数据最为出色，10月份的销量再次破万达到10138台，理想汽车屈居其后10月份销量为7649台。</p>\n<p>大家所期待的蔚来再次没有延续9月份破万的好成绩，其10月份的销量仅有3667台。事实上，其实大家对于蔚来销量下滑已经有一定的预期。在公布10月份的销量前，蔚来汽车美股盘前跌3.88%就有开始有人预测蔚来汽车10月份的销量不理想。</p>\n<p>只不过，这一次蔚来汽车下跌的幅度实在出乎所有人的预期，3667台的月销量相比此前的9月份数据已经不止“拦腰砍断”了，差不多跌去了7成，怪不得美股盘前会一度暴跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef5b0e3f981935683307754a9ce7bea6\" tg-width=\"598\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对于蔚来汽车10月份销量暴跌，蔚来汽车给出的解释是，“由于工厂生产线进行改造，蔚来10月份的生产计划受到影响，因此导致部分计划于10月交付的车辆订单将晚于原计划交付。”</p>\n<p>其实，早在10月29日，蔚来方面就披露，“因生产线改造升级需要停线，10月的交付会受到影响”，不过当时市场对蔚来汽车过于乐观，认为蔚来改造生产线不会对其销量有明显的影响。</p>\n<p>事与愿违，蔚来汽车10月份的销量大跌了，看来生产线改造确实影响到了蔚来汽车的生产节奏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9258e0009b7ac995a5270d30359f3861\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>值得一提的是，在此次发布的销量数据里，9月份表现优秀的哪吒汽车在10月份取得8107台的出色成绩。截止到目前，哪吒汽车已累计交付达49534台。</p>\n<p>总的来说，10月份的交付数据里，“蔚小理”中的蔚来再次掉队，而第二梯队的哪吒汽车却步步紧逼。虽然从总的交付量来看，，“蔚小理”仍然占据很大的优势，但却到了不得不防的时候了。</p>\n<p>■&nbsp;蔚来押宝在ET7上</p>\n<p>这一次蔚来把宝压在ET7上，而这恰恰是这次蔚来汽车销量下跌的主因。ET7是蔚来第四款量产车型，原计划明年一季度开始交付，从亮相开始就备受关注。事实上，10月份销量数据出来后，蔚来联合创始人秦力洪就出来安抚市场，“这次生产线改造的目的之一就是兼容ET7准时上线”，从侧面也可以看出蔚来汽车对ET7的重视。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7237672257941824acad57c9add059ab\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>对于蔚来汽车来说，EC6自2020年中推出后，蔚来已经有一年多时间没有推出新车型了，在这个喜新厌旧的时代，没有新产品就意味着没有关注。蔚来汽车在今年年初亮相的ET7就一直备受期待，市场也一直期待它的量产。</p>\n<p>作为蔚来研发的首款轿车，ET7所呈现出的产品力可以说是到了新势力的天花板。ET7充满前卫、时尚气息的车身造型采用了蔚来汽车新一代X-bar的设计语言，整车风阻系数仅为0.23Cd，车身线条极为流畅。</p>\n<p>除了前风挡玻璃上方设有激光雷达和两个摄像头外，蔚来ET7还拥有33个传感器。在四颗NVIDIA Orin芯片的配合下，蔚来ET7总算力高达1016 TOPS，通过超高带宽图像接口，其ISP每秒可处理64亿像素，因此可以实现更高级别的辅助驾驶能力。</p>\n<p>超过5米的车长以及3060mm的轴距则保证了足够的车内空间。而续航上，ET8提供了电池容量为70kWh、100kWh和150kWh的三种电池包可选，其NEDC工况下续航里程分别超过500km、700km和1000km，可以说ET7相比此前的ES8、EC6等车型提升了不止一个等级。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce414d383e3ded51cf15ee659a72216a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>毫无疑问，蔚来ET7是一款极为出色的中大型轿车，但是蔚来汽车把宝压在它的身上却有些操之过急了。最为重要的是，ET7是否能承担这个重任也是未知之数。毕竟，定位高端的蔚来汽车给ET7定了一个不低的售价。从补贴后最低44.8万起的预售价看出，蔚来ET7并不是一款亲民的车型。</p>\n<p>■&nbsp;蔚来均价偏高</p>\n<p>事实上，不止蔚来ET7的定价偏高，目前蔚来在售的其他车型同样存在售价偏高的情况。蔚来创始人李斌就曾说过，“蔚来比宝马、奥迪的平均售价都高，比特斯拉中国的平均售价贵十几万，已初步建立起了一个高端品牌”，此外，前文提到蔚来联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪也曾表示，“蔚来是要做电动化时代的BBA”。</p>\n<p>经过几年的发展，蔚来的高端化已成规模，但却成了它往下走的掣肘。在2021年上半年新能源汽车排行榜中，理想ONE以30514辆排名第六位，小鹏P7则以19336辆排名第十，而蔚来旗下的三款车型均未进入前十榜单。</p>\n<p>车卖得贵，没有办法走量，这就是蔚来汽车的现状。数据显示，蔚来的三款车型单车的平均售价超过43万元，而其中卖得最好的只有ES6。如果把过去12个月的数据拉出来，蔚来ES6平均下来月交付也只有3000台，明显不如理想ONE和P7。显然，蔚来汽车目前缺乏爆款车型。</p>\n<p>相比蔚来，定位于为年轻人造智能车的小鹏汽车情况就好多了，目前已经两个月销量破万了。究其原因，主要是面向中端市场在爆发，其爆款车型P7自去年9月开始规模化交付后，一年时间已经交付超过5万台，最近三个月更是连续月交付在6000台以上。</p>\n<p>此外，像理想汽车所推出的理想ONE虽然是选择了比较保守的增程式模式，但其自交付以来的销量一直以来就非常稳定。原因嘛，同样是定位比较准确，30万出头的售价与大多数主流的中大型SUV车型的定价较为接近。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ac773833bd627dd0370a4bc372bad6a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"691\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>总的来说，经过多年的发展，从中低端开始切入的小鹏汽车与理想汽车已经稳固了市场，真正做到了上可攻退可守。</p>\n<p>蔚来虽然说“10月订单情况还不错，创了历史新高”，但是就算生产线改造完成，蔚来ET7能在2022年第一季度如期量产，以蔚来目前几款车的销量趋势来看，指望ET7销量大涨明显有些过于乐观。如无意外，在目前芯片仍然短缺的背景下，在ET7交付后的销量如果能够维持在4000台已经算是一个不错的数据。乐观的话，蔚来汽车在2022年第一季度再次破万应该没有太大的问题，至于能否冲到1.5万的月销量就要看ET7是否给力了。</p>\n<p>当然，李斌很清楚蔚来汽车的目前的困局，也有意要往低端发展。在今年5月初，江淮汽车发布的一则公告显示，江淮蔚来将投产一款年产6万辆的全新车型Gemini（中文名“双子星”）。这意味着，新车型很有可能会是蔚来汽车接下来要推出的入门级车型。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c8455cdd825ac6bc73640cc0e98454\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>此外，李斌此前在参观五菱公司对新推出的KIWI车型表示看好也被市场认为蔚来将要推出更低级别车型的证据。</p>\n<p>总结：造车是一条长跑赛道，有的人选择高端，有的人从低端进发。过去几年，蔚来汽车的高端化战略虽然不算一帆风顺，但却创出了属于自己的一片天地。俗话说，逆水行舟，不进则退，处在高端的蔚来汽车并没有太多犯错的机会。特斯拉如今给出了最好的答案，“没有爆款车型永远成不了大车企”。</p>\n<p>或许即将到来的ET7能给蔚来带来一定的销量增长，但如果蔚来不加紧推出面向大众的新品牌，这次销量下滑会不会成为蔚来汽车掉队的开始呢？我们拭目以待吧。</p>","source":"lsy1582507589608","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为了ET7“顺产”，蔚来必须“卧薪尝胆”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为了ET7“顺产”，蔚来必须“卧薪尝胆”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 14:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://36kr.com/p/1470004381746307><strong>雷科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月才刚过几天，各个新势力就抢先发布了10月份的销量，其中小鹏的数据最为出色，10月份的销量再次破万达到10138台，理想汽车屈居其后10月份销量为7649台。\n大家所期待的蔚来再次没有延续9月份破万的好成绩，其10月份的销量仅有3667台。事实上，其实大家对于蔚来销量下滑已经有一定的预期。在公布10月份的销量前，蔚来汽车美股盘前跌3.88%就有开始有人预测蔚来汽车10月份的销量不理想。\n只不过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://36kr.com/p/1470004381746307\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/608c0ca7f544a93854339353ff5e9ae1","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://36kr.com/p/1470004381746307","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134360627","content_text":"11月才刚过几天，各个新势力就抢先发布了10月份的销量，其中小鹏的数据最为出色，10月份的销量再次破万达到10138台，理想汽车屈居其后10月份销量为7649台。\n大家所期待的蔚来再次没有延续9月份破万的好成绩，其10月份的销量仅有3667台。事实上，其实大家对于蔚来销量下滑已经有一定的预期。在公布10月份的销量前，蔚来汽车美股盘前跌3.88%就有开始有人预测蔚来汽车10月份的销量不理想。\n只不过，这一次蔚来汽车下跌的幅度实在出乎所有人的预期，3667台的月销量相比此前的9月份数据已经不止“拦腰砍断”了，差不多跌去了7成，怪不得美股盘前会一度暴跌。\n\n对于蔚来汽车10月份销量暴跌，蔚来汽车给出的解释是，“由于工厂生产线进行改造，蔚来10月份的生产计划受到影响，因此导致部分计划于10月交付的车辆订单将晚于原计划交付。”\n其实，早在10月29日，蔚来方面就披露，“因生产线改造升级需要停线，10月的交付会受到影响”，不过当时市场对蔚来汽车过于乐观，认为蔚来改造生产线不会对其销量有明显的影响。\n事与愿违，蔚来汽车10月份的销量大跌了，看来生产线改造确实影响到了蔚来汽车的生产节奏。\n\n值得一提的是，在此次发布的销量数据里，9月份表现优秀的哪吒汽车在10月份取得8107台的出色成绩。截止到目前，哪吒汽车已累计交付达49534台。\n总的来说，10月份的交付数据里，“蔚小理”中的蔚来再次掉队，而第二梯队的哪吒汽车却步步紧逼。虽然从总的交付量来看，，“蔚小理”仍然占据很大的优势，但却到了不得不防的时候了。\n■ 蔚来押宝在ET7上\n这一次蔚来把宝压在ET7上，而这恰恰是这次蔚来汽车销量下跌的主因。ET7是蔚来第四款量产车型，原计划明年一季度开始交付，从亮相开始就备受关注。事实上，10月份销量数据出来后，蔚来联合创始人秦力洪就出来安抚市场，“这次生产线改造的目的之一就是兼容ET7准时上线”，从侧面也可以看出蔚来汽车对ET7的重视。\n\n对于蔚来汽车来说，EC6自2020年中推出后，蔚来已经有一年多时间没有推出新车型了，在这个喜新厌旧的时代，没有新产品就意味着没有关注。蔚来汽车在今年年初亮相的ET7就一直备受期待，市场也一直期待它的量产。\n作为蔚来研发的首款轿车，ET7所呈现出的产品力可以说是到了新势力的天花板。ET7充满前卫、时尚气息的车身造型采用了蔚来汽车新一代X-bar的设计语言，整车风阻系数仅为0.23Cd，车身线条极为流畅。\n除了前风挡玻璃上方设有激光雷达和两个摄像头外，蔚来ET7还拥有33个传感器。在四颗NVIDIA Orin芯片的配合下，蔚来ET7总算力高达1016 TOPS，通过超高带宽图像接口，其ISP每秒可处理64亿像素，因此可以实现更高级别的辅助驾驶能力。\n超过5米的车长以及3060mm的轴距则保证了足够的车内空间。而续航上，ET8提供了电池容量为70kWh、100kWh和150kWh的三种电池包可选，其NEDC工况下续航里程分别超过500km、700km和1000km，可以说ET7相比此前的ES8、EC6等车型提升了不止一个等级。\n\n毫无疑问，蔚来ET7是一款极为出色的中大型轿车，但是蔚来汽车把宝压在它的身上却有些操之过急了。最为重要的是，ET7是否能承担这个重任也是未知之数。毕竟，定位高端的蔚来汽车给ET7定了一个不低的售价。从补贴后最低44.8万起的预售价看出，蔚来ET7并不是一款亲民的车型。\n■ 蔚来均价偏高\n事实上，不止蔚来ET7的定价偏高，目前蔚来在售的其他车型同样存在售价偏高的情况。蔚来创始人李斌就曾说过，“蔚来比宝马、奥迪的平均售价都高，比特斯拉中国的平均售价贵十几万，已初步建立起了一个高端品牌”，此外，前文提到蔚来联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪也曾表示，“蔚来是要做电动化时代的BBA”。\n经过几年的发展，蔚来的高端化已成规模，但却成了它往下走的掣肘。在2021年上半年新能源汽车排行榜中，理想ONE以30514辆排名第六位，小鹏P7则以19336辆排名第十，而蔚来旗下的三款车型均未进入前十榜单。\n车卖得贵，没有办法走量，这就是蔚来汽车的现状。数据显示，蔚来的三款车型单车的平均售价超过43万元，而其中卖得最好的只有ES6。如果把过去12个月的数据拉出来，蔚来ES6平均下来月交付也只有3000台，明显不如理想ONE和P7。显然，蔚来汽车目前缺乏爆款车型。\n相比蔚来，定位于为年轻人造智能车的小鹏汽车情况就好多了，目前已经两个月销量破万了。究其原因，主要是面向中端市场在爆发，其爆款车型P7自去年9月开始规模化交付后，一年时间已经交付超过5万台，最近三个月更是连续月交付在6000台以上。\n此外，像理想汽车所推出的理想ONE虽然是选择了比较保守的增程式模式，但其自交付以来的销量一直以来就非常稳定。原因嘛，同样是定位比较准确，30万出头的售价与大多数主流的中大型SUV车型的定价较为接近。\n\n总的来说，经过多年的发展，从中低端开始切入的小鹏汽车与理想汽车已经稳固了市场，真正做到了上可攻退可守。\n蔚来虽然说“10月订单情况还不错，创了历史新高”，但是就算生产线改造完成，蔚来ET7能在2022年第一季度如期量产，以蔚来目前几款车的销量趋势来看，指望ET7销量大涨明显有些过于乐观。如无意外，在目前芯片仍然短缺的背景下，在ET7交付后的销量如果能够维持在4000台已经算是一个不错的数据。乐观的话，蔚来汽车在2022年第一季度再次破万应该没有太大的问题，至于能否冲到1.5万的月销量就要看ET7是否给力了。\n当然，李斌很清楚蔚来汽车的目前的困局，也有意要往低端发展。在今年5月初，江淮汽车发布的一则公告显示，江淮蔚来将投产一款年产6万辆的全新车型Gemini（中文名“双子星”）。这意味着，新车型很有可能会是蔚来汽车接下来要推出的入门级车型。\n\n此外，李斌此前在参观五菱公司对新推出的KIWI车型表示看好也被市场认为蔚来将要推出更低级别车型的证据。\n总结：造车是一条长跑赛道，有的人选择高端，有的人从低端进发。过去几年，蔚来汽车的高端化战略虽然不算一帆风顺，但却创出了属于自己的一片天地。俗话说，逆水行舟，不进则退，处在高端的蔚来汽车并没有太多犯错的机会。特斯拉如今给出了最好的答案，“没有爆款车型永远成不了大车企”。\n或许即将到来的ET7能给蔚来带来一定的销量增长，但如果蔚来不加紧推出面向大众的新品牌，这次销量下滑会不会成为蔚来汽车掉队的开始呢？我们拭目以待吧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824233620,"gmtCreate":1634313509918,"gmtModify":1634314484792,"author":{"id":"3532956619000594","authorId":"3532956619000594","name":"老大虎张嘴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532956619000594","authorIdStr":"3532956619000594"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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