吾名为荒的个人主页 - 老虎社区

吾名为荒

吾名为荒

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IP属地：江苏

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1主题

0勋章

2022-08-12

天谴

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-07-13

一边加息一边放水，憋登就是个废物

2022-07-12

又出增产谣言，油价崩

2022-07-10

$欧尼克（万欧卡）(OKE)$炸了

2022-06-15

昨天已经跌过了，今天诱空再涨

2022-06-14

美联储加息还是会有点影响的

2022-06-06

$天然气主连 2207(NGmain)$今夜蹦到10块

2022-06-06

$天然气主连 2207(NGmain)$拔了猛干

2022-06-02

原来的增产43万桶改为65万桶，杯水车薪，加了个寂寞

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-05-18

$WTI原油主连 2206(CLmain)$ 被美股带崩了

2022-05-10

$标普500(.SPX)$还得接着砸，空头势如破竹

2022-05-06

$天然气2207(NG2207)$ 今天会有瀑布

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:24","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日，配额方式不变","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167087164","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"欧佩克代表：欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日。消息人士称，欧佩克+将于6月30日举行下一次部长级会议。周四，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日，较近几个月来增产幅度","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>欧佩克代表：欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日。消息人士称，欧佩克+将于6月30日举行下一次部长级会议。</blockquote><p>周四，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日，较近几个月来增产幅度提高约50%。据了解，近期包括美国在内的主要消费国一直对欧佩克施压，要求该组织提高产量以缓解能源价格高企带来的痛苦。</p><p>欧佩克代表们表示，增产的配额将按照以往的方式在成员之间按比例分配。而那些无法提高产量的国家，如安哥拉、尼日利亚以及最近的俄罗斯，仍将获得更高的配额。因此这可能意味着欧佩克实际石油供应增幅会小于官方数据，正如最近几个月经常出现的情况一样。</p><p>消息公布后，原油期货价格反弹，截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.66%，报115.99美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.45%，报116.90美元/桶。</p><p>据了解，对欧佩克+来说，扩大石油出口是一个重大转变。此前，以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克一直坚持其逐月逐步增加供应的计划，甚至到目前为止，欧佩克在大多数会议上都避免讨论俄乌冲突这场危机，称这是一个政治问题，而不是市场问题。</p><p>然而，在这场冲突升级后，俄罗斯由于遭受西方制裁、运输困难及被一些传统的客户拒绝购买等原因，该国的石油产量大幅下降。根据国际能源署数据显示，俄罗斯4月份的日产量比欧佩克+目标低130万桶。</p><p>如今，欧佩克+增加的额外供应可能仅来自于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国，因为只有这两个国家拥有大量可以迅速增加的闲置产能。几个月来，许多其他成员国一直在努力实现产量目标。</p><p>值得一提的是，沙特外交部长上周表示，该国已无力再抑制石油市场，甚至暗示原油不存在短缺。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta 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class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-02 21:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>欧佩克代表：欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日。消息人士称，欧佩克+将于6月30日举行下一次部长级会议。</blockquote><p>周四，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日，较近几个月来增产幅度提高约50%。据了解，近期包括美国在内的主要消费国一直对欧佩克施压，要求该组织提高产量以缓解能源价格高企带来的痛苦。</p><p>欧佩克代表们表示，增产的配额将按照以往的方式在成员之间按比例分配。而那些无法提高产量的国家，如安哥拉、尼日利亚以及最近的俄罗斯，仍将获得更高的配额。因此这可能意味着欧佩克实际石油供应增幅会小于官方数据，正如最近几个月经常出现的情况一样。</p><p>消息公布后，原油期货价格反弹，截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.66%，报115.99美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.45%，报116.90美元/桶。</p><p>据了解，对欧佩克+来说，扩大石油出口是一个重大转变。此前，以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克一直坚持其逐月逐步增加供应的计划，甚至到目前为止，欧佩克在大多数会议上都避免讨论俄乌冲突这场危机，称这是一个政治问题，而不是市场问题。</p><p>然而，在这场冲突升级后，俄罗斯由于遭受西方制裁、运输困难及被一些传统的客户拒绝购买等原因，该国的石油产量大幅下降。根据国际能源署数据显示，俄罗斯4月份的日产量比欧佩克+目标低130万桶。</p><p>如今，欧佩克+增加的额外供应可能仅来自于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国，因为只有这两个国家拥有大量可以迅速增加的闲置产能。几个月来，许多其他成员国一直在努力实现产量目标。</p><p>值得一提的是，沙特外交部长上周表示，该国已无力再抑制石油市场，甚至暗示原油不存在短缺。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167087164","content_text":"欧佩克代表：欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日。消息人士称，欧佩克+将于6月30日举行下一次部长级会议。周四，欧佩克代表称，欧佩克+同意在7月和8月增产64.8万桶/日，较近几个月来增产幅度提高约50%。据了解，近期包括美国在内的主要消费国一直对欧佩克施压，要求该组织提高产量以缓解能源价格高企带来的痛苦。欧佩克代表们表示，增产的配额将按照以往的方式在成员之间按比例分配。而那些无法提高产量的国家，如安哥拉、尼日利亚以及最近的俄罗斯，仍将获得更高的配额。因此这可能意味着欧佩克实际石油供应增幅会小于官方数据，正如最近几个月经常出现的情况一样。消息公布后，原油期货价格反弹，截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.66%，报115.99美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.45%，报116.90美元/桶。据了解，对欧佩克+来说，扩大石油出口是一个重大转变。此前，以沙特阿拉伯为首的欧佩克一直坚持其逐月逐步增加供应的计划，甚至到目前为止，欧佩克在大多数会议上都避免讨论俄乌冲突这场危机，称这是一个政治问题，而不是市场问题。然而，在这场冲突升级后，俄罗斯由于遭受西方制裁、运输困难及被一些传统的客户拒绝购买等原因，该国的石油产量大幅下降。根据国际能源署数据显示，俄罗斯4月份的日产量比欧佩克+目标低130万桶。如今，欧佩克+增加的额外供应可能仅来自于沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国，因为只有这两个国家拥有大量可以迅速增加的闲置产能。几个月来，许多其他成员国一直在努力实现产量目标。值得一提的是，沙特外交部长上周表示，该国已无力再抑制石油市场，甚至暗示原油不存在短缺。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684223185,"gmtCreate":1660317818752,"gmtModify":1660317818752,"author":{"id":"3532431692297320","authorId":"3532431692297320","name":"吾名为荒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aed55b853061e1194067cb6051c32b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"天谴","listText":"天谴","text":"天谴","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684223185","repostId":"1189534776","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189534776","pubTimestamp":1660312623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189534776?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-12 21:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“500年一遇”干旱席卷欧洲","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189534776","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。欧洲不愧是“命运共同体”，面对有史以来最热的一个七月，几乎所有国家都在共同分担这份“热情”。甚至连两年前终于成","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。</blockquote><p>欧洲不愧是“命运共同体”，面对有史以来最热的一个七月，几乎所有国家都在共同分担这份“热情”。</p><p>甚至连两年前终于成功脱欧的英国也没能离队，在兄弟们“要热一起热”的呐喊声中，一举打破历史7月最高温。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c495445bc38d169ee94816eb1959accb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>欧洲2003年与2022年气温对比图</p><p>英国国家干旱工作组周五（8月12日）召开会议后宣布<b>，英格兰西部、南部、中部和东部部分地区进入“干旱”状态。</b></p><p>英国气象局表示，<b>以多雨天气而闻名的英格兰经历了1935年以来最为干燥的7月，目前正在面临滚滚热浪的新常态，夏季月份的水供应也面临压力。</b></p><p><b>并且现在看来，高温仅仅只是开始，现在摆在整个欧洲面前的，是随之而来干旱、野火、山洪，是紧随其后的水资源短缺、农业生产受挫、河流运输中断。</b></p><p>欧盟委员会资深研究员、致力于研究干旱灾害的Andrea Toreti表示，<b>这场干旱或将成为“500年来最严重的一次”，自16世纪以来尚未出现过这样的景象。</b></p><p>而就在短短两个月前，这一切听起来还那么遥不可及。</p><p>起初在5、6月份的时候，欧洲人最多只是觉得，今年夏天确实开始的挺早。</p><p>然而就在不经意间，一股强烈而持久的热浪从欧洲南部的西班牙和葡萄牙一路北上，冲过英法，直逼西北欧的斯堪的纳维亚半岛。</p><p>所到之处，一片“焦土”。</p><p>欧洲干旱观测站对7月最后10天的数据进行了检查，发现截止7月中旬，欧盟45%的地区处于“干旱预警”状态，而有15%的地区处于最为严重的“红色预警”状态。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b1c584c0f150bd04bb1e7e157eddbfb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>如果说前者还意味着高温之下土壤的干旱，那么后者就代表着土壤之上的植物和农作物已经受到了影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c563056fd3f4d80c0cf8fc8f71640239\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1097\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>值此危急时刻，欧盟委员会已经对多个地区的危急情况发出警告，欧洲各国也被迫行动起来。</p><p>百年一遇干旱来袭 欧洲各国直面冲击</p><p>法国气象局已经宣布，法国正在遭遇1958年有记录以来最为严重的干旱灾害。截止7月27日，在法国96个省中，已有90个省不同程度地进入“干旱警戒”状态。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7093f5ea9123c24d80a4d285c4e76774\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>8月11日，法国卢瓦尔河</p><p>考虑到地表土壤湿度也刷新了有记录以来的最低水平，7月降雨量比往年同期低85%，目前已有87个省宣布限制农业灌溉，其中62个省进入“危机”状态。</p><p>在这种情况之下，野火肆虐已经在所难免。目前法国各地发生的野火已迫使10000人撤离，约有6800公顷土地被烧毁。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e97e393cbc48f7a3697f534c6f4dd75a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>7月26日，法国Gignac的野火</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ba69f4f6d0b1aef9a523092b5a7dc47\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"745\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>据法国媒体7月24日报道，法国西南部吉伦特省发生的野火，致使近6000人被迫撤离</p><p>西班牙也频频受到野火侵扰。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178f78e10b3c69583035638655a05ea0\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>西班牙加利西亚地区的A Cañiza</p><p>在英国的英格兰地区，出现了有记录以来首次40°C的高温，苏格兰和威尔士地区也打破了最高气温纪录。而纵观整个英国，7月平均降雨量打破二十多年来的最低记录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce981bca17ad59e4361cdcbaca2d727\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>英国创纪录高温造成多地区进入“干旱预警”状态</p><p>英国气象局数据显示，由于受到有史以来最强热浪的侵袭，英国部分地区遭遇了史上最干旱七月。英国生态与水文中心还对此警告称，这种罕见的干旱状况或将持续到今年10月。</p><p>位于欧洲南部的意大利更是难以幸免，可以说是目前受到持续干旱影响最为严重的国家之一。</p><p>7月初，意大利政府已经宣布北部五个地区进入干旱紧急状态，要求对当地饮用水进行定量配给。</p><p>而现在颇受瞩目的，是意大利最长河流波河（River Po）已经濒临干涸。由于自去年11月以来就没有发生持续降雨，目前波河流域的水量已低于2米，降至正常水平的十分之一，在某些区域波河甚至已经完全断流。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bff2fbfb4193245d2655cad44fc3243c\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>7月中旬，干涸的波河河床</p><p>同波河的处境类似，德国“母亲河”莱茵河的境况更是相当危急。</p><p>作为将德国工业中心和欧洲主要港口连接起来的关键西北欧水道，莱茵河水位已经降至危险地位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264cece4c375c5252f1d6c142b535136\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"535\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>8月9日，德国巴特洪内夫干涸的莱茵河床</p><p>这让人不禁回想起2018年曾发生的一幕，当时水位过低导致货物运输直接中断了132天，直接经济损失高达50亿欧元，而眼下莱茵河的水位又回到了当时的位置。</p><p>除此之外，西班牙、葡萄牙、荷兰、比利时、瑞典、瑞士、罗马尼亚、匈牙利和乌克兰的大片地区都难逃干旱的冲击。</p><p>情况较好的还未限制居民饮用水，但也开始告诫大家不要在浪费水来洗车，情况较差的更是只能眼睁睁看着农作物因缺水而大片枯萎。</p><p><b>能源危机未平 欧洲通胀爆表 罕见干旱再起 通胀“高烧”难解</b></p><p><b>不要低估此次干旱的破坏力，从农业生产到工业能源，所有人都身处其中，谁又独善其身？</b></p><p>先从农业讲起。此前欧盟委员会联合研究中心(JRC)发布了对夏季作物的产量展望，<b>总体趋势就是，作物产量大幅减少。其中玉米、向日葵和大豆产量的降幅高达8%—9%，已经远低于五年平均水平。</b></p><p>法国农业部长警告称，今年法国的玉米产量或将同比减少超18%。而法国农民工会也表示，干旱已经导致奶牛饲料短缺，所以很尴尬的情况可能会在今年秋冬上演，那就是缺奶。</p><p>意大利北部原本主产稻米，但由于波河流域面临干涸，占意大利作物产量约40%、用于制作意大利调味饭的稻米产量受到威胁，损失可能会高达60%。</p><p>而在盛产乳制品的瑞士，干旱对当地相关行业的冲击也不容小觑。目前由于高山牧场的牧场过于干枯，瑞士部分地区不得不开放往年直到9月才会用于放牧的山谷草场。</p><p><b>与此同时，欧洲工业更是“压力山大”。能源危机的达摩克利斯之剑本就悬在欧洲头顶，造成欧元区7月调和CPI已经攀升至8.9%的历史高位。如今河流运输受阻，或将进一步加剧能源供给短缺，届时价格更会步步攀升，通胀“高烧”难解。</b></p><p><b>欧洲最大经济体德国就已经站在风暴第一线。</b></p><p>德国“母亲河”莱茵河联通德国和瑞士与欧洲最大海港——荷兰鹿特丹，堪称欧洲经济的“生命线”。它不仅要为近千万人提供饮用水，而且还担负着繁重的内河运输任务。</p><p>莱茵河流域面积达到德国国土面积的近三分之一，流经德国几个最重要的工业区如鲁尔区，对化学品巨头巴斯夫公司、钢铁制造商蒂森克虏伯公司和公用事业公司Uniper SE的货物运输起到举足轻重的作用。</p><p><b>除此之外，莱茵河水道还承担着运输能源的艰巨任务，比如运输煤炭和石油。</b></p><p>在俄罗斯“断气”之后，以德国为首的欧洲经济体大开能源“倒车”，其中就包括重启燃煤电厂来满足国内电力需求，此时煤炭的重要性可想而知。</p><p>而且莱茵河还承载着每日约40万桶的石油产品贸易。去年，每天约有24万桶石油需要通过莱茵河运往德国，另外每日还有约5万桶柴油、喷气燃料和汽油运往瑞士。此外，每日约有9万桶汽油从德国运往荷兰和比利时。</p><p>因此，依靠莱茵河的河道运输本是应对“断气”的上佳Plan B，<b>然而随着莱茵河的关键河段或将自8月12日起无法通航</b>，煤炭、石油运输的难度骤然增加。而且即便其余河段可以通航，货运船舶为了避免因水位较低而搁浅，也只能以25%的运力进行运输，货运成本自然水涨船高。</p><p>铁路、公路运输也不失为替代方案，但是其高企成本也难以和相对低廉的河道运输相比。</p><p>而这些新增出来的能源成本，总需要有人来承担，不是工厂，就是居民。总之结果都是，欧洲已经刷新历史新高的通胀水平或将更加“涨涨不休”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef7cab0b1a8a67a40bdc96b86c2c9e7a\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>在德国西部杜塞尔多夫的干涸河床</p><p><b>除了燃料成本增加之外，近期欧洲各国以水资源为基础的能源利用也先后遭遇困境。</b></p><p>比如法国因河流温度过高无法有效冷却核电反应堆，多座核电站被迫减产甚至关闭，加剧电力危机。</p><p>比如西班牙作为欧洲人均水坝数量最多的国家，干旱导致的蓄水量下降已经影响到该国各地水力发电，提高用电成本。</p><p>就连风电设备也因缺少水分开始罢工。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4d2aa21d07fff339e059f33ac7484b2\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“500年一遇”干旱席卷欧洲</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“500年一遇”干旱席卷欧洲\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-12 21:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667506><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。欧洲不愧是“命运共同体”，面对有史以来最热的一个七月，几乎所有国家都在共同分担这份“热情”。甚至连两年前终于成功脱欧的英国也没能离队，在兄弟们“要热一起热”的呐喊声中，一举打破历史7月最高温。欧洲2003年与2022年气温对比图英国国家干旱工作组周五（8月12日）召开会议后宣布，英格兰西部、南部、中部和东部...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667506\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7093f5ea9123c24d80a4d285c4e76774","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667506","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1189534776","content_text":"能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。欧洲不愧是“命运共同体”，面对有史以来最热的一个七月，几乎所有国家都在共同分担这份“热情”。甚至连两年前终于成功脱欧的英国也没能离队，在兄弟们“要热一起热”的呐喊声中，一举打破历史7月最高温。欧洲2003年与2022年气温对比图英国国家干旱工作组周五（8月12日）召开会议后宣布，英格兰西部、南部、中部和东部部分地区进入“干旱”状态。英国气象局表示，以多雨天气而闻名的英格兰经历了1935年以来最为干燥的7月，目前正在面临滚滚热浪的新常态，夏季月份的水供应也面临压力。并且现在看来，高温仅仅只是开始，现在摆在整个欧洲面前的，是随之而来干旱、野火、山洪，是紧随其后的水资源短缺、农业生产受挫、河流运输中断。欧盟委员会资深研究员、致力于研究干旱灾害的Andrea Toreti表示，这场干旱或将成为“500年来最严重的一次”，自16世纪以来尚未出现过这样的景象。而就在短短两个月前，这一切听起来还那么遥不可及。起初在5、6月份的时候，欧洲人最多只是觉得，今年夏天确实开始的挺早。然而就在不经意间，一股强烈而持久的热浪从欧洲南部的西班牙和葡萄牙一路北上，冲过英法，直逼西北欧的斯堪的纳维亚半岛。所到之处，一片“焦土”。欧洲干旱观测站对7月最后10天的数据进行了检查，发现截止7月中旬，欧盟45%的地区处于“干旱预警”状态，而有15%的地区处于最为严重的“红色预警”状态。如果说前者还意味着高温之下土壤的干旱，那么后者就代表着土壤之上的植物和农作物已经受到了影响。值此危急时刻，欧盟委员会已经对多个地区的危急情况发出警告，欧洲各国也被迫行动起来。百年一遇干旱来袭 欧洲各国直面冲击法国气象局已经宣布，法国正在遭遇1958年有记录以来最为严重的干旱灾害。截止7月27日，在法国96个省中，已有90个省不同程度地进入“干旱警戒”状态。8月11日，法国卢瓦尔河考虑到地表土壤湿度也刷新了有记录以来的最低水平，7月降雨量比往年同期低85%，目前已有87个省宣布限制农业灌溉，其中62个省进入“危机”状态。在这种情况之下，野火肆虐已经在所难免。目前法国各地发生的野火已迫使10000人撤离，约有6800公顷土地被烧毁。7月26日，法国Gignac的野火据法国媒体7月24日报道，法国西南部吉伦特省发生的野火，致使近6000人被迫撤离西班牙也频频受到野火侵扰。西班牙加利西亚地区的A Cañiza在英国的英格兰地区，出现了有记录以来首次40°C的高温，苏格兰和威尔士地区也打破了最高气温纪录。而纵观整个英国，7月平均降雨量打破二十多年来的最低记录。英国创纪录高温造成多地区进入“干旱预警”状态英国气象局数据显示，由于受到有史以来最强热浪的侵袭，英国部分地区遭遇了史上最干旱七月。英国生态与水文中心还对此警告称，这种罕见的干旱状况或将持续到今年10月。位于欧洲南部的意大利更是难以幸免，可以说是目前受到持续干旱影响最为严重的国家之一。7月初，意大利政府已经宣布北部五个地区进入干旱紧急状态，要求对当地饮用水进行定量配给。而现在颇受瞩目的，是意大利最长河流波河（River Po）已经濒临干涸。由于自去年11月以来就没有发生持续降雨，目前波河流域的水量已低于2米，降至正常水平的十分之一，在某些区域波河甚至已经完全断流。7月中旬，干涸的波河河床同波河的处境类似，德国“母亲河”莱茵河的境况更是相当危急。作为将德国工业中心和欧洲主要港口连接起来的关键西北欧水道，莱茵河水位已经降至危险地位。8月9日，德国巴特洪内夫干涸的莱茵河床这让人不禁回想起2018年曾发生的一幕，当时水位过低导致货物运输直接中断了132天，直接经济损失高达50亿欧元，而眼下莱茵河的水位又回到了当时的位置。除此之外，西班牙、葡萄牙、荷兰、比利时、瑞典、瑞士、罗马尼亚、匈牙利和乌克兰的大片地区都难逃干旱的冲击。情况较好的还未限制居民饮用水，但也开始告诫大家不要在浪费水来洗车，情况较差的更是只能眼睁睁看着农作物因缺水而大片枯萎。能源危机未平 欧洲通胀爆表 罕见干旱再起 通胀“高烧”难解不要低估此次干旱的破坏力，从农业生产到工业能源，所有人都身处其中，谁又独善其身？先从农业讲起。此前欧盟委员会联合研究中心(JRC)发布了对夏季作物的产量展望，总体趋势就是，作物产量大幅减少。其中玉米、向日葵和大豆产量的降幅高达8%—9%，已经远低于五年平均水平。法国农业部长警告称，今年法国的玉米产量或将同比减少超18%。而法国农民工会也表示，干旱已经导致奶牛饲料短缺，所以很尴尬的情况可能会在今年秋冬上演，那就是缺奶。意大利北部原本主产稻米，但由于波河流域面临干涸，占意大利作物产量约40%、用于制作意大利调味饭的稻米产量受到威胁，损失可能会高达60%。而在盛产乳制品的瑞士，干旱对当地相关行业的冲击也不容小觑。目前由于高山牧场的牧场过于干枯，瑞士部分地区不得不开放往年直到9月才会用于放牧的山谷草场。与此同时，欧洲工业更是“压力山大”。能源危机的达摩克利斯之剑本就悬在欧洲头顶，造成欧元区7月调和CPI已经攀升至8.9%的历史高位。如今河流运输受阻，或将进一步加剧能源供给短缺，届时价格更会步步攀升，通胀“高烧”难解。欧洲最大经济体德国就已经站在风暴第一线。德国“母亲河”莱茵河联通德国和瑞士与欧洲最大海港——荷兰鹿特丹，堪称欧洲经济的“生命线”。它不仅要为近千万人提供饮用水，而且还担负着繁重的内河运输任务。莱茵河流域面积达到德国国土面积的近三分之一，流经德国几个最重要的工业区如鲁尔区，对化学品巨头巴斯夫公司、钢铁制造商蒂森克虏伯公司和公用事业公司Uniper SE的货物运输起到举足轻重的作用。除此之外，莱茵河水道还承担着运输能源的艰巨任务，比如运输煤炭和石油。在俄罗斯“断气”之后，以德国为首的欧洲经济体大开能源“倒车”，其中就包括重启燃煤电厂来满足国内电力需求，此时煤炭的重要性可想而知。而且莱茵河还承载着每日约40万桶的石油产品贸易。去年，每天约有24万桶石油需要通过莱茵河运往德国，另外每日还有约5万桶柴油、喷气燃料和汽油运往瑞士。此外，每日约有9万桶汽油从德国运往荷兰和比利时。因此，依靠莱茵河的河道运输本是应对“断气”的上佳Plan B，然而随着莱茵河的关键河段或将自8月12日起无法通航，煤炭、石油运输的难度骤然增加。而且即便其余河段可以通航，货运船舶为了避免因水位较低而搁浅，也只能以25%的运力进行运输，货运成本自然水涨船高。铁路、公路运输也不失为替代方案，但是其高企成本也难以和相对低廉的河道运输相比。而这些新增出来的能源成本，总需要有人来承担，不是工厂，就是居民。总之结果都是，欧洲已经刷新历史新高的通胀水平或将更加“涨涨不休”。在德国西部杜塞尔多夫的干涸河床除了燃料成本增加之外，近期欧洲各国以水资源为基础的能源利用也先后遭遇困境。比如法国因河流温度过高无法有效冷却核电反应堆，多座核电站被迫减产甚至关闭，加剧电力危机。比如西班牙作为欧洲人均水坝数量最多的国家，干旱导致的蓄水量下降已经影响到该国各地水力发电，提高用电成本。就连风电设备也因缺少水分开始罢工。能源危机喧嚣未平，百年一遇干旱又起，欧洲人肩上的生活压力，可能真的会成为“不可承受之重”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688533420,"gmtCreate":1657717045163,"gmtModify":1704868096608,"author":{"id":"3532431692297320","authorId":"3532431692297320","name":"吾名为荒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aed55b853061e1194067cb6051c32b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一边加息一边放水，憋登就是个废物","listText":"一边加息一边放水，憋登就是个废物","text":"一边加息一边放水，憋登就是个废物","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688533420","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688641974,"gmtCreate":1657638863901,"gmtModify":1704867858557,"author":{"id":"3532431692297320","authorId":"3532431692297320","name":"吾名为荒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aed55b853061e1194067cb6051c32b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又出增产谣言，油价崩","listText":"又出增产谣言，油价崩","text":"又出增产谣言，油价崩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688641974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688351619,"gmtCreate":1657447309032,"gmtModify":1704867330943,"author":{"id":"3532431692297320","authorId":"3532431692297320","name":"吾名为荒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2aed55b853061e1194067cb6051c32b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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