5aff28af的个人主页 - 老虎社区

5aff28af

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0勋章

2021-01-15

大麻股好，趋势为王

2020-12-12

广告牌

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-07

$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ 看空3700

2020-08-20

大跌300点

2020-08-20

$白银主连(SImain)$ 白银可能爆涨30刀

2020-08-13

$葛兰素史克(GSK)$今天晚上43刀付

2020-08-12

大家快点来评论

@5aff28af:$白银2009(SI2009)$ 一失足成千古恨，怎么就吧止盈撤了原来差不多有60w刀，辛苦从5万刀起来

2020-08-12

$白银2009(SI2009)$ 一失足成千古恨，怎么就吧止盈撤了原来差不多有60w刀，辛苦从5万刀起来

2020-08-12

$白银主连(SImain)$ 从55万成功亏光只剩下一千多的，还好不是实盘

2020-05-29

股指收益不错，可以美指etf三倍做空没什么涨。复盘一把握好市场机会用波浪理论预判方向二控制好杠杠仓位，不然会被强平，保持流动性。

2020-03-14

$三倍做多标普500ETF(UPRO)$行情好，涨跌双杀

2020-03-12

$道指反向ETF(DOG)$ 人才

2020-01-29

5g龙头做中长期不错，选股方向对，买期权收益更高

2020-01-29

$NanoViricides Inc.(NNVC)$ 动量策略，均值复归，上次**做空也是查不多的收益，实盘需要考虑到追加保证金风险。

2019-11-14

$苹果(AAPL)$ 第一次看对

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>张磊也写道：</p>\n<p><i>困难是一面镜子，最深刻的反省往往都来源于此。每当危机出现的时候，都提供了一次难得的压力测试和投资复盘机会，而最终是价值观决定你如何应对和自处。</i></p>\n<p><i>在这样的特殊时期里，我们依然坚守长期主义，就是因为我们既看到了当下，不仅关注企业短期的利润、现金流，努力做足准备以摆脱暂时的困境，挺过“眼前的苟且”；又相信未来，对于创造价值的事情从不怀疑，坚持追求长期结构性的机会，找到价值的“诗和远方”。</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8b2d8fd9bcd0eb435c53a34f991e518\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>在蔚来上，高瓴是没有挺过“眼前的苟且”。</p>\n<p>有意思的是，按照投资逻辑，蔚来和小鹏、理想同属新造车这一回事，同一回事的长期价值却在半年内突然膨胀了。是蔚来的长期价值不足秤，还是长期顶多就值半年？又或者，“长期价值”这种判断方法，除了本身是正确的废话，实操起来模糊而可疑，有待祛媚呢。</p>\n<p>潜望最近出了一篇稿子《新造车穿越生死线》。</p>\n<p>主要讲了李斌、何小鹏、李想，从15年前后创业造车到19年前后经历各自的至暗时刻，期间各种找钱和找钱被拒的秘辛故事。</p>\n<p>以如今蔚来、小鹏、理想的股价和市值来看，结论自然是，当时舍得一身剐给钱的现在都发了，不给或者给到一半撤走的，则缺乏看生意的眼光。</p>\n<p>外行看热闹，内行看门道。很遗憾，尽管讲的是汽车企业，但汽车在其中不算内行。</p>\n<p>这是资本的主场，博弈正反打之间的逻辑远超产业的质朴，呈现出了当代中国投资圈的精神面貌：投资最大的恐惧，比起亏钱，更是错过。</p>\n<p>踏空一下，就失去一整条赛道；踏空两条，一线投资人落到二线，二线落到十八线。落体速度和回报速度是同步的。</p>\n<p>两个被抓典型的踏空大户：</p>\n<p>一个正是高瓴。虽然文中仅以“大佬”指代，但滑雪加清仓的线索再显然不过了。文中没提到后来张磊所幸火线投资小鹏和理想又重回新能源赛道的事。也不是谁都有这么回天的资金池。</p>\n<p>另一个则是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>。罗宾夫妇和三家都聊过，却并没能谈妥重仓小鹏和理想，对蔚来的投资也非常少，最后押注了相对传统的威马。</p>\n<p>而对面的成功案例，除了三家背后的腾讯、阿里、美团三家互联网巨头，最让人印象深刻的是蔚来的早期投资者、愉悦资本创始及执行合伙人刘二海。</p>\n<p>蔚来之外，他还投了瑞幸，也投了蛋壳，今年两大暴雷王者都是他看好的重要标的。在后二者成为众矢之的之前，蔚来是愉悦资本被“骂得比较多的”项目。</p>\n<p>人有失足，马有失蹄，有赔有挣本就无可非议。风险投资本就是高风险事业。但除去公司个体的弊病使然，它们都曾被相信是具有投资价值的。</p>\n<p>无论是张磊还是刘二海，投资人们拿着同一套投资逻辑，却投出了不同的结果，值得我们再仔细去追问一些问题。站在不同的时间节点去衡量这个投资逻辑的结果，是会有不同的结论的。那么哪个节点是可以盖棺定论，新造车真的越过生死线了吗？</p>\n<p>生死线，是有好几个指标可以说话的。</p>\n<p>最直观的，比如三家账面现金流。截至2020年9月30日，蔚来汽车持有的现金、现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资总额为人民币222亿元，小鹏为199.984亿元，理想为189.2亿元。这个数目意味着他们至少具备一定的抗风险能力，不会死于旦夕祸福。</p>\n<p>不过这个钱多数是靠融资和上市来的。三家还都在稳定毛利为正的阶段。造血能力是有的，外部输血还不能停。以前秦力洪有个说法，从ICU被转移到了普通病房。大概是这意思。</p>\n<p>产业里则比较喜欢提盈亏平衡点。早些年业界相传的“通用”平衡点是年销十万，后来眼看着路漫漫其修远兮，也就放下了，切割为更细的短期销量目标。</p>\n<p>实际上随着规模化的进展，这个数值是会动态变化的。以蔚来为例，按去年底的状况，其实月产4000辆、年产约4.8万辆的话，至少在制造方面是能实现最优经济性的。</p>\n<p>如今的蔚来基本要够上了。2020年预计年销可达4.3万辆，一些分析师预测，随着明年新轿车发布，销量或还能翻番到八、九万。</p>\n<p>除了蔚来，小鹏和理想也在高速增长，此三家最近月销都能在四五千，小鹏全年预期交付2.4万辆，理想全年预期交付3万辆。</p>\n<p>问题是，这样的增长能不能持续，能增长到怎样的规模，现在的数据模型其实是不好准确进行预估的。眼下就体量而言，整个新能源板块销量占总销量约8%，新能源消费仍旧处于比较初级、粗犷的阶段。高增长，是在低基数、较空的市场容量、新政鼓励、时间差导致不充分竞争等等作用下养成的。</p>\n<p>这个市场还没发育成熟，既成销量或许还是第一批容易钱，占的坑位还未触及真正的主流消费群体，玩家也还没到齐，销量预测便充满不确定性。因为在一个比较充分竞争的市场，你的生死不仅是由自己的发展决定的，还是由竞争对手决定的。车市实在不乏到了年销十万以上再被退回两三万的例子。</p>\n<p>一个可以审视的节点是到2025年。根据国务院发布的新能源汽车产业发展规划，到2025年新能源汽车新车销售量达到汽车新车销售总量的20%左右。这是一个可以切乎主流的量级，按照总量如果2000～2500万为计，新能源汽车的盘子在400～500万。届时也将是大多数老大哥车企完成第一波试水，要集体认真下场的时间。</p>\n<p>如果到那时还能活下来，或许才是活下来的第一步。规模才是对一个商业模式的有效验证。</p>\n<p>不成熟的另一个体现也在于，这三家此刻的制胜关键，并不在于建立了什么可靠的护城河，而是突击长板足够长，得以在产品选择匮乏的市场，提供足够亮眼的购买理由。</p>\n<p>蔚来是在于独树一帜、狠砸血本的服务和品牌长板。从资本可能性上，眼下赛道的投融资环境，几乎没有可能再有后来者能找到复制的资金；即便有，要做到这样的体系或许也缺乏战略眼光的支持。蔚来服务的本质，不是传统服务的送温暖，而是李斌对电动化的思维框架。从最初的可换电到现在推出的BaaS服务，就是一个例子。</p>\n<p>小鹏则是在于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>化长板，确切的说，是用非常好的性价比提供近似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、再叠加本土化口味的高度智能化长板。其中内涵了众多自称智能的汽车难以达到的硬核自研能力和产品思维。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2874ff19eb14f2ac491c89226bb684c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1448\"></p>\n<p>理想则是在于相比汽油车而言最高的实用性和性价比，以及一定程度上创始人的人格长板。理想ONE甚至不是纯电动，在一些投资人眼里缺乏想象空间，但是这反倒使得它现在得以不太依赖政策，不局限于限行城市的销售机会。</p>\n<p>除去这些长板，无论哪家都还有很多问题，还在等待迫切的完善。眼下的消费者愿意为了这些长板给予宽容，这会不会是往后所有人的购买逻辑，也有待验证的。</p>\n<p>未来行业到底是什么形态，实际上尚未定型，大家仍旧是一道摸着过河，只不过有的人走得早了一些。</p>\n<p>所以，当产业的人碰上资本的人，往往就会发生一种疑问：为什么说蔚来、小鹏和理想就是新能源头部，还就此把互联网思维提到一个很高的位置。</p>\n<p>现在业绩上的分野主要在于两方面：</p>\n<p>其一，上市。为投资人提供了变现和退出的通路。</p>\n<p>其二，销量。第一梯队平均在四五千，第二梯队平均在两三千。</p>\n<p>能是多大的差异，便奉此为仪轨呢？</p>\n<p>第一条，或许更是因为背景和经验。其他主要都是由汽车人士操盘的项目，对于资本运作的敏感度不及此三家那么高。如果给历史一个拐点，让比如威马在今年中上市，现在的风向又会如何，其实难讲。我们的价值或许被资本裹挟得有些严重。</p>\n<p>周二是百度Apollo生态大会，威马作为合作伙伴出现，展示了双方合作的带AVP功能的汽车，明年即将量产上市。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144f3ea864f53bb22ebe6b346864f009\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>\n<p>百度当初因为对小鹏和理想提出了严苛的竞业条款，投资便没有了下文；最后投了全盘接受的威马。在不少人看来，似乎有些为了赶上赛道，才只得将就选择了没有想象力的那个。没人关心百度的意图，其实就想大力推广自己的Apollo，从投资的角度，它或许失去了挣钱的机会，从战略的角度，它获得了一个可控的汽车制造伙伴，能完全展示它想要呈现的百度车载能力。</p>\n<p>而对于威马来说，这个赋能或许也是一条通路。实际上，在最开始很长一段时间，威马一直在头部三家之中的。它被挤下的问题就是，缺乏长板地均衡全面发展，而逐渐在市场上失去声量。明年或许就不同了。</p>\n<p>届时，谁又能保证，由巨头提供软件引擎、新势力作硬件基底，不会是一种业内新的长期价值模式呢。</p>","source":"lsy1570604434829","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>新势力越过生死线了吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n新势力越过生死线了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-11 18:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u4qjPlcsEb2-7jlLsfslCw><strong>autocarweekly</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>京东图书热卖榜金融投资类现在排名第一的书是《价值》。\n作者是高瓴资本的张磊。主题是他一直信奉的“长期价值”。\n他在自序里写道：\n真正的投资，有且只有一条标准，那就是是否在创造真正的价值，这个价值是否有益于社会的整体繁荣。坚持了这个标准，时间和社会一定会给予奖励，而且往往是持续、巨大的奖励。\n这本书出版的六天前，小鹏汽车上市。\n此前不久，高瓴参投了小鹏5亿美元的C＋轮融资。小鹏上市首日股价涨超41％...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u4qjPlcsEb2-7jlLsfslCw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb5904d62b10798f760277be625646d","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u4qjPlcsEb2-7jlLsfslCw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151727776","content_text":"京东图书热卖榜金融投资类现在排名第一的书是《价值》。\n作者是高瓴资本的张磊。主题是他一直信奉的“长期价值”。\n他在自序里写道：\n真正的投资，有且只有一条标准，那就是是否在创造真正的价值，这个价值是否有益于社会的整体繁荣。坚持了这个标准，时间和社会一定会给予奖励，而且往往是持续、巨大的奖励。\n这本书出版的六天前，小鹏汽车上市。\n此前不久，高瓴参投了小鹏5亿美元的C＋轮融资。小鹏上市首日股价涨超41％，据悉让高瓴本笔投资回报率超过20倍。\n理想上市前，高瓴也参与了认购，金额不明，但从之后的股价涨势来看，想必也是获得了“持续、巨大的奖励”。这就是前后脚的事。\n而更早一些，蔚来便开始拉出一条又长又粗的大阳线。这本该是高瓴的丰收之地，不过高瓴没挣上。它曾是蔚来在李斌和腾讯之后的第三大股东，但在19年三季度大幅减持，到四季度清盘。当时蔚来的股票表现差，投资回报低，李斌非常缺钱，然而高瓴还是撤了。\n\n张磊也写道：\n困难是一面镜子，最深刻的反省往往都来源于此。每当危机出现的时候，都提供了一次难得的压力测试和投资复盘机会，而最终是价值观决定你如何应对和自处。\n在这样的特殊时期里，我们依然坚守长期主义，就是因为我们既看到了当下，不仅关注企业短期的利润、现金流，努力做足准备以摆脱暂时的困境，挺过“眼前的苟且”；又相信未来，对于创造价值的事情从不怀疑，坚持追求长期结构性的机会，找到价值的“诗和远方”。\n\n在蔚来上，高瓴是没有挺过“眼前的苟且”。\n有意思的是，按照投资逻辑，蔚来和小鹏、理想同属新造车这一回事，同一回事的长期价值却在半年内突然膨胀了。是蔚来的长期价值不足秤，还是长期顶多就值半年？又或者，“长期价值”这种判断方法，除了本身是正确的废话，实操起来模糊而可疑，有待祛媚呢。\n潜望最近出了一篇稿子《新造车穿越生死线》。\n主要讲了李斌、何小鹏、李想，从15年前后创业造车到19年前后经历各自的至暗时刻，期间各种找钱和找钱被拒的秘辛故事。\n以如今蔚来、小鹏、理想的股价和市值来看，结论自然是，当时舍得一身剐给钱的现在都发了，不给或者给到一半撤走的，则缺乏看生意的眼光。\n外行看热闹，内行看门道。很遗憾，尽管讲的是汽车企业，但汽车在其中不算内行。\n这是资本的主场，博弈正反打之间的逻辑远超产业的质朴，呈现出了当代中国投资圈的精神面貌：投资最大的恐惧，比起亏钱，更是错过。\n踏空一下，就失去一整条赛道；踏空两条，一线投资人落到二线，二线落到十八线。落体速度和回报速度是同步的。\n两个被抓典型的踏空大户：\n一个正是高瓴。虽然文中仅以“大佬”指代，但滑雪加清仓的线索再显然不过了。文中没提到后来张磊所幸火线投资小鹏和理想又重回新能源赛道的事。也不是谁都有这么回天的资金池。\n另一个则是百度。罗宾夫妇和三家都聊过，却并没能谈妥重仓小鹏和理想，对蔚来的投资也非常少，最后押注了相对传统的威马。\n而对面的成功案例，除了三家背后的腾讯、阿里、美团三家互联网巨头，最让人印象深刻的是蔚来的早期投资者、愉悦资本创始及执行合伙人刘二海。\n蔚来之外，他还投了瑞幸，也投了蛋壳，今年两大暴雷王者都是他看好的重要标的。在后二者成为众矢之的之前，蔚来是愉悦资本被“骂得比较多的”项目。\n人有失足，马有失蹄，有赔有挣本就无可非议。风险投资本就是高风险事业。但除去公司个体的弊病使然，它们都曾被相信是具有投资价值的。\n无论是张磊还是刘二海，投资人们拿着同一套投资逻辑，却投出了不同的结果，值得我们再仔细去追问一些问题。站在不同的时间节点去衡量这个投资逻辑的结果，是会有不同的结论的。那么哪个节点是可以盖棺定论，新造车真的越过生死线了吗？\n生死线，是有好几个指标可以说话的。\n最直观的，比如三家账面现金流。截至2020年9月30日，蔚来汽车持有的现金、现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资总额为人民币222亿元，小鹏为199.984亿元，理想为189.2亿元。这个数目意味着他们至少具备一定的抗风险能力，不会死于旦夕祸福。\n不过这个钱多数是靠融资和上市来的。三家还都在稳定毛利为正的阶段。造血能力是有的，外部输血还不能停。以前秦力洪有个说法，从ICU被转移到了普通病房。大概是这意思。\n产业里则比较喜欢提盈亏平衡点。早些年业界相传的“通用”平衡点是年销十万，后来眼看着路漫漫其修远兮，也就放下了，切割为更细的短期销量目标。\n实际上随着规模化的进展，这个数值是会动态变化的。以蔚来为例，按去年底的状况，其实月产4000辆、年产约4.8万辆的话，至少在制造方面是能实现最优经济性的。\n如今的蔚来基本要够上了。2020年预计年销可达4.3万辆，一些分析师预测，随着明年新轿车发布，销量或还能翻番到八、九万。\n除了蔚来，小鹏和理想也在高速增长，此三家最近月销都能在四五千，小鹏全年预期交付2.4万辆，理想全年预期交付3万辆。\n问题是，这样的增长能不能持续，能增长到怎样的规模，现在的数据模型其实是不好准确进行预估的。眼下就体量而言，整个新能源板块销量占总销量约8%，新能源消费仍旧处于比较初级、粗犷的阶段。高增长，是在低基数、较空的市场容量、新政鼓励、时间差导致不充分竞争等等作用下养成的。\n这个市场还没发育成熟，既成销量或许还是第一批容易钱，占的坑位还未触及真正的主流消费群体，玩家也还没到齐，销量预测便充满不确定性。因为在一个比较充分竞争的市场，你的生死不仅是由自己的发展决定的，还是由竞争对手决定的。车市实在不乏到了年销十万以上再被退回两三万的例子。\n一个可以审视的节点是到2025年。根据国务院发布的新能源汽车产业发展规划，到2025年新能源汽车新车销售量达到汽车新车销售总量的20%左右。这是一个可以切乎主流的量级，按照总量如果2000～2500万为计，新能源汽车的盘子在400～500万。届时也将是大多数老大哥车企完成第一波试水，要集体认真下场的时间。\n如果到那时还能活下来，或许才是活下来的第一步。规模才是对一个商业模式的有效验证。\n不成熟的另一个体现也在于，这三家此刻的制胜关键，并不在于建立了什么可靠的护城河，而是突击长板足够长，得以在产品选择匮乏的市场，提供足够亮眼的购买理由。\n蔚来是在于独树一帜、狠砸血本的服务和品牌长板。从资本可能性上，眼下赛道的投融资环境，几乎没有可能再有后来者能找到复制的资金；即便有，要做到这样的体系或许也缺乏战略眼光的支持。蔚来服务的本质，不是传统服务的送温暖，而是李斌对电动化的思维框架。从最初的可换电到现在推出的BaaS服务，就是一个例子。\n小鹏则是在于智能化长板，确切的说，是用非常好的性价比提供近似特斯拉、再叠加本土化口味的高度智能化长板。其中内涵了众多自称智能的汽车难以达到的硬核自研能力和产品思维。\n\n理想则是在于相比汽油车而言最高的实用性和性价比，以及一定程度上创始人的人格长板。理想ONE甚至不是纯电动，在一些投资人眼里缺乏想象空间，但是这反倒使得它现在得以不太依赖政策，不局限于限行城市的销售机会。\n除去这些长板，无论哪家都还有很多问题，还在等待迫切的完善。眼下的消费者愿意为了这些长板给予宽容，这会不会是往后所有人的购买逻辑，也有待验证的。\n未来行业到底是什么形态，实际上尚未定型，大家仍旧是一道摸着过河，只不过有的人走得早了一些。\n所以，当产业的人碰上资本的人，往往就会发生一种疑问：为什么说蔚来、小鹏和理想就是新能源头部，还就此把互联网思维提到一个很高的位置。\n现在业绩上的分野主要在于两方面：\n其一，上市。为投资人提供了变现和退出的通路。\n其二，销量。第一梯队平均在四五千，第二梯队平均在两三千。\n能是多大的差异，便奉此为仪轨呢？\n第一条，或许更是因为背景和经验。其他主要都是由汽车人士操盘的项目，对于资本运作的敏感度不及此三家那么高。如果给历史一个拐点，让比如威马在今年中上市，现在的风向又会如何，其实难讲。我们的价值或许被资本裹挟得有些严重。\n周二是百度Apollo生态大会，威马作为合作伙伴出现，展示了双方合作的带AVP功能的汽车，明年即将量产上市。\n\n百度当初因为对小鹏和理想提出了严苛的竞业条款，投资便没有了下文；最后投了全盘接受的威马。在不少人看来，似乎有些为了赶上赛道，才只得将就选择了没有想象力的那个。没人关心百度的意图，其实就想大力推广自己的Apollo，从投资的角度，它或许失去了挣钱的机会，从战略的角度，它获得了一个可控的汽车制造伙伴，能完全展示它想要呈现的百度车载能力。\n而对于威马来说，这个赋能或许也是一条通路。实际上，在最开始很长一段时间，威马一直在头部三家之中的。它被挤下的问题就是，缺乏长板地均衡全面发展，而逐渐在市场上失去声量。明年或许就不同了。\n届时，谁又能保证，由巨头提供软件引擎、新势力作硬件基底，不会是一种业内新的长期价值模式呢。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396750027,"gmtCreate":1607327861769,"gmtModify":1703847078763,"author":{"id":"3531168535038743","authorId":"3531168535038743","name":"5aff28af","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3531168535038743","authorIdStr":"3531168535038743"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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