Abaaa的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Abaaa

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IP属地：北京

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0勋章

2020-12-11

$逸仙电商(YSG)$ 开始建仓看新高

2020-02-11

$有道(DAO)$熬了半年有了一个好的结尾让利润奔跑

2020-07-03

$新东方在线(01797)$ 买入持有大赛道持续看好港股市场唯一的线上在线教育平台对比美股跟谁学 mark

2021-09-15

$逸仙电商(YSG)$继续+++

2021-01-04

$逸仙电商(YSG)$拼命按着不让涨可以继续磨一磨然后憋一个新闻真的🐶

2019-12-24

$有道(DAO)$一个10多亿美金的公司交易量不到2万美金网易旗下除了网易云音乐第二重要的公司就是一个笑话丁三石在被市场惩罚网易云音乐上市前路艰险 mark 2019年最烂股票

2019-10-24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

为什么新东方财报明明不错却大跌，好未来看似一般却大涨？

2020-11-17

$Flotek工业(FTK)$买入持有

2021-09-14

$逸仙电商(YSG)$开始建仓

2021-07-01

$TuSimple Holdings Inc.(TSP)$ 再好的故事你也需要配上相应的表现长线短线的魅力

2020-11-25

$AMD(AMD)$长期看好第一目标新高 [害羞]

2020-08-26

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$faang除你之外全部创新高被市场遗弃的票

2020-11-28

$AMD(AMD)$真的好弱好想卖了再忍忍吧 88多少次了就是过不去

2020-11-10

$蔚来(NIO)$s at now

2020-07-08

$ZoomInfo Technologies Inc.(ZI)$买入持有 strong financials

2020-08-29

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$这走势一夜情

2021-04-10

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这个位置buy and hold了静待

2021-01-05

$逸仙电商(YSG)$呵呵每天开盘拉高然后一路跌

2020-12-24

$逸仙电商(YSG)$继续磨一磨舒服😌

2020-08-25

$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$请问你还活着吗？被市场抛弃了？其他巨头纷纷新高你就像躺尸一样在这里

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么新东方财报明明不错却大跌，好未来看似一般却大涨？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125568996","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国教育培训行业最大的两家公司相继发布业绩，10月22日盘前，新东方（$(EDU)$）财报超预期发布后，股价高开低走，开盘创新高即回落。今天盘前好未来（$(TAL)$）发布业绩，盘前大涨逾6%，彷如新","content":"<p>中国教育培训行业最大的两家公司相继发布业绩，<span>10</span>月<span>22</span>日盘前，新东方（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$(EDU)$</a>）财报超预期发布后，股价高开低走，开盘创新高即回落。今天盘前好未来（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>）发布业绩，盘前大涨逾6<span>%</span>，彷如新东方业绩财报当天，为什么两家公司走势如此分叉？好未来是否会步新东方后尘？</p>\n<p>总体来看，新东方的财报各项指标均表现出众，尤其是季度净利润同比大增<span>70%</span>达<span>2.1</span>亿美元。高开低走更有可能是因为其股价<span>2019</span>年以来已经大涨逾<span>100%</span>，诸多利好均提前反映到股价中，对于收入季节属性较强的新东方，在暑期利好兑现的当下获利了结或许是许多投资者的选择。此外，新东方动态市盈率（<span>PE TTM</span>）已经达<span>55</span>倍，就教育股而言当前估值较高。</p>\n<p>另一方面，好未来季度收入<span>9.4</span>亿美元，同比增长<span>33.8%</span>，归属公司净亏损<span>1440</span>万美元，连续两个季度亏损。虽然盘前大涨，但观其估值，高达<span>70</span>多倍的动态市盈率，对应其并不理想的业绩，仍不值得投资者现在买入。</p>\n<p>下面我们就几个核心指标分别来看看新东方和好未来的财报。由于两家公司的财年起始不同，截止<span>2019</span>年<span>8</span>月<span>31</span>日的 三个月是好未来<span>2020</span>财年第二季度，却是新东方<span>2020</span>财年的第一季度，因此我们以新东方财报时间为标准，好未来的按照相应实际时间段数据对应。</p>\n<p><b>新东方收入更大，但好未来学生更多</b></p>\n<p>新东方季度收入<span>10.7</span>亿美元，同比增长<span>25%</span>，好未来季度收入<span>9.4</span>亿美元，虽略低于新东方，但其<span>33%</span>的同比增速达更快。从下图也看出，新东方每个财年第一季度（暑期）都是全年业绩高峰时期。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01953d276d6eba57f76d060ee843c3ff?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">新东方的营收增长主要得益于招生人数的增加和客单价的提高。由于<span>2018</span>年<span>11</span>月的培训机构新政实施，秋季学期的报名分为上下两部分，因此在计算招生人数时，也统计了两部分人数的加总，导致新东方财报显示的招生人数增长了<span>50.4%</span>，远大于收入增速。实际踢除该影响后，从<span>K12</span>招生人数可见实际增长应该在<span>30%~35%</span>左右，基本持平上个季度的<span>34%</span>。</p>\n<p>此外，今年暑期促销活动中，新东方将促销课的价格从<span>200</span>元提到了<span>400</span>元，招生人数仍然增长了<span>8%</span>。在价格翻倍情况下，招生人数仍然增长且学员留存率依然接近<span>80%</span>，不得不说新东方的品牌价值和其口碑好。</p>\n<p>从好未来的财报看其季度收入增长主要来自线下业务的发展和在线课程的扩张。好未来当季招生人数增长重回<span>55%</span>，市场解除了上季度的增速放缓疑虑。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368ed0c7ecc3219c535ac9923e4d457?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">从图上看，新东方的季度招生人数不及好未来，增速也不及好未来。但不得不注意的是，虽然同为<span>K12</span>业务，好未来的主要集中在小升初阶段，尤其是小学奥数一骑绝尘，随着<span>2019</span>年<span>7</span>月<span>8</span>日发布的<span>“</span>民办学校摇号政策<span>”</span>在各地陆续落地，可能会对其造成一定压力，中长期增长一定风险。</p>\n<p>截至<span>2019</span>年<span>8</span>月<span>31</span>日的季度，好未来已扩展至<span>69</span>个城市，共有<span>758</span>个教学中心，较上一季度净增<span>33</span>个教学中心。反之新东方却显然停下来扩张的脚步，同期新东方共有学校和学习中心<span>1,261</span>个，季度净增仅<span>7</span>个。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e1dc8f92c4a492156ec33c6a06a603?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\"></p>\n<p>由于<span>新东方教学中心在总数量上大幅领先好未来，实际在一二线城市基本饱和，而低线城市扩张过程较为缓慢，这是由于教育的低于特殊性，每个地区每个城市的教研体系都不同，无法直接复制，需要再当地深耕产品研发。新东方选择慢下来，先提高现有的教学中心利用率和效率也不失为一种方式。</span></p>\n<p><b>好未来连续两季度净亏损，而新东方净利润大增</b> <b><span>70%</span></b></p>\n<p>好未来归属公司净亏损为<span>1440</span>万美元，较上个季度归母净亏损<span>730</span>万美元几乎翻倍，上季度是好未来上市<span>9</span>年首次出现亏损。另一方面新东方归属公司净利润同比增长<span>70%</span>至<span>2.1</span>亿美元。</p>\n<p>二者的区别在于，暑期营销大战中，好未来投入巨资用以线上获客，换得招生人数同比增长<span>55%</span>。付出的代价是其销售和推广费用同比大增<span>73.5%</span>，从去年同期的<span>1.5</span>亿元上升至<span>2.6</span>亿元。费用上升直接导致其经营利润从上年同期的<span>8090</span>万美元下降到<span>6990</span>万美元，降幅为<span>13.5%</span>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf3c8938536084f758ac96f2ae0c9aa?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">（来自好未来财报）</p>\n<p>反观新东方，当季的销售和推广费用同比仅增长<span>1.9%</span>，却换来营收增长<span>25%</span>和招生人数<span>30%</span>以上的增速。此外，新东方当季的收入成本以及行政管理费用同比增长分别为<span>19.8%</span>和<span>21.6%</span>，均低于营收增速。成本的有效控制成为经营利润出众的核心驱动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c75a65709aaa8ed1273cf37f30156e52?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">（来自新东方财报）</p>\n<p>由下图可见，在非美会计准则下（不考虑股权激励费用，以及长期投资的公允价值变动的情况），新东方的经营利润是<span>2.6</span>亿美元，是好未来的<span>2.6</span>倍。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9dc31811f136e8eee0ba7cb962a09d?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">另一方面，好未来在过去几年里一直都没有停下买买买步伐，参与的投资超过<span>100</span>起，在今年这样资本市场并不理想的年份，其财报提计的投资亏损和公允价值变化产生的亏损较上季度再次放大。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f001f32e70ac51601bcc602144c825b4?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\"><span>（来自好未来财报）</span></p>\n<p>财报显示，当季其他费用为<span>5560</span>万美元，主要与具有可轻易确定的公允价值的股权证券的公允价值变动损失有关。而来自长期投资减值损失为<span>5420</span>万美元，上季度这一减值为<span>5059</span>万，去年同期为<span>0</span>。可以说，好未来的亏损才是一部教育创业公司的寒冬季。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>新东方财报发布后，利好出尽高开低走，虽然季节性因素明显，但从其各方面指标来看都表现出众，仍具备长期投资价值，只是当下估值不便宜。而好未来虽然盘前大涨，但其以烧钱价格战换用户增长的方式或难以维继，相对估值仍较高，因此不为好的入场时机。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么新东方财报明明不错却大跌，好未来看似一般却大涨？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么新东方财报明明不错却大跌，好未来看似一般却大涨？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2019-10-24 21:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>中国教育培训行业最大的两家公司相继发布业绩，<span>10</span>月<span>22</span>日盘前，新东方（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$(EDU)$</a>）财报超预期发布后，股价高开低走，开盘创新高即回落。今天盘前好未来（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$(TAL)$</a>）发布业绩，盘前大涨逾6<span>%</span>，彷如新东方业绩财报当天，为什么两家公司走势如此分叉？好未来是否会步新东方后尘？</p>\n<p>总体来看，新东方的财报各项指标均表现出众，尤其是季度净利润同比大增<span>70%</span>达<span>2.1</span>亿美元。高开低走更有可能是因为其股价<span>2019</span>年以来已经大涨逾<span>100%</span>，诸多利好均提前反映到股价中，对于收入季节属性较强的新东方，在暑期利好兑现的当下获利了结或许是许多投资者的选择。此外，新东方动态市盈率（<span>PE TTM</span>）已经达<span>55</span>倍，就教育股而言当前估值较高。</p>\n<p>另一方面，好未来季度收入<span>9.4</span>亿美元，同比增长<span>33.8%</span>，归属公司净亏损<span>1440</span>万美元，连续两个季度亏损。虽然盘前大涨，但观其估值，高达<span>70</span>多倍的动态市盈率，对应其并不理想的业绩，仍不值得投资者现在买入。</p>\n<p>下面我们就几个核心指标分别来看看新东方和好未来的财报。由于两家公司的财年起始不同，截止<span>2019</span>年<span>8</span>月<span>31</span>日的 三个月是好未来<span>2020</span>财年第二季度，却是新东方<span>2020</span>财年的第一季度，因此我们以新东方财报时间为标准，好未来的按照相应实际时间段数据对应。</p>\n<p><b>新东方收入更大，但好未来学生更多</b></p>\n<p>新东方季度收入<span>10.7</span>亿美元，同比增长<span>25%</span>，好未来季度收入<span>9.4</span>亿美元，虽略低于新东方，但其<span>33%</span>的同比增速达更快。从下图也看出，新东方每个财年第一季度（暑期）都是全年业绩高峰时期。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01953d276d6eba57f76d060ee843c3ff?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">新东方的营收增长主要得益于招生人数的增加和客单价的提高。由于<span>2018</span>年<span>11</span>月的培训机构新政实施，秋季学期的报名分为上下两部分，因此在计算招生人数时，也统计了两部分人数的加总，导致新东方财报显示的招生人数增长了<span>50.4%</span>，远大于收入增速。实际踢除该影响后，从<span>K12</span>招生人数可见实际增长应该在<span>30%~35%</span>左右，基本持平上个季度的<span>34%</span>。</p>\n<p>此外，今年暑期促销活动中，新东方将促销课的价格从<span>200</span>元提到了<span>400</span>元，招生人数仍然增长了<span>8%</span>。在价格翻倍情况下，招生人数仍然增长且学员留存率依然接近<span>80%</span>，不得不说新东方的品牌价值和其口碑好。</p>\n<p>从好未来的财报看其季度收入增长主要来自线下业务的发展和在线课程的扩张。好未来当季招生人数增长重回<span>55%</span>，市场解除了上季度的增速放缓疑虑。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4368ed0c7ecc3219c535ac9923e4d457?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">从图上看，新东方的季度招生人数不及好未来，增速也不及好未来。但不得不注意的是，虽然同为<span>K12</span>业务，好未来的主要集中在小升初阶段，尤其是小学奥数一骑绝尘，随着<span>2019</span>年<span>7</span>月<span>8</span>日发布的<span>“</span>民办学校摇号政策<span>”</span>在各地陆续落地，可能会对其造成一定压力，中长期增长一定风险。</p>\n<p>截至<span>2019</span>年<span>8</span>月<span>31</span>日的季度，好未来已扩展至<span>69</span>个城市，共有<span>758</span>个教学中心，较上一季度净增<span>33</span>个教学中心。反之新东方却显然停下来扩张的脚步，同期新东方共有学校和学习中心<span>1,261</span>个，季度净增仅<span>7</span>个。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e1dc8f92c4a492156ec33c6a06a603?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\"></p>\n<p>由于<span>新东方教学中心在总数量上大幅领先好未来，实际在一二线城市基本饱和，而低线城市扩张过程较为缓慢，这是由于教育的低于特殊性，每个地区每个城市的教研体系都不同，无法直接复制，需要再当地深耕产品研发。新东方选择慢下来，先提高现有的教学中心利用率和效率也不失为一种方式。</span></p>\n<p><b>好未来连续两季度净亏损，而新东方净利润大增</b> <b><span>70%</span></b></p>\n<p>好未来归属公司净亏损为<span>1440</span>万美元，较上个季度归母净亏损<span>730</span>万美元几乎翻倍，上季度是好未来上市<span>9</span>年首次出现亏损。另一方面新东方归属公司净利润同比增长<span>70%</span>至<span>2.1</span>亿美元。</p>\n<p>二者的区别在于，暑期营销大战中，好未来投入巨资用以线上获客，换得招生人数同比增长<span>55%</span>。付出的代价是其销售和推广费用同比大增<span>73.5%</span>，从去年同期的<span>1.5</span>亿元上升至<span>2.6</span>亿元。费用上升直接导致其经营利润从上年同期的<span>8090</span>万美元下降到<span>6990</span>万美元，降幅为<span>13.5%</span>。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebf3c8938536084f758ac96f2ae0c9aa?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">（来自好未来财报）</p>\n<p>反观新东方，当季的销售和推广费用同比仅增长<span>1.9%</span>，却换来营收增长<span>25%</span>和招生人数<span>30%</span>以上的增速。此外，新东方当季的收入成本以及行政管理费用同比增长分别为<span>19.8%</span>和<span>21.6%</span>，均低于营收增速。成本的有效控制成为经营利润出众的核心驱动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c75a65709aaa8ed1273cf37f30156e52?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">（来自新东方财报）</p>\n<p>由下图可见，在非美会计准则下（不考虑股权激励费用，以及长期投资的公允价值变动的情况），新东方的经营利润是<span>2.6</span>亿美元，是好未来的<span>2.6</span>倍。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9dc31811f136e8eee0ba7cb962a09d?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\">另一方面，好未来在过去几年里一直都没有停下买买买步伐，参与的投资超过<span>100</span>起，在今年这样资本市场并不理想的年份，其财报提计的投资亏损和公允价值变化产生的亏损较上季度再次放大。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f001f32e70ac51601bcc602144c825b4?op=imageView2&amp;mode=2&amp;width=512&amp;format=jpg&amp;quality=70\"><span>（来自好未来财报）</span></p>\n<p>财报显示，当季其他费用为<span>5560</span>万美元，主要与具有可轻易确定的公允价值的股权证券的公允价值变动损失有关。而来自长期投资减值损失为<span>5420</span>万美元，上季度这一减值为<span>5059</span>万，去年同期为<span>0</span>。可以说，好未来的亏损才是一部教育创业公司的寒冬季。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>新东方财报发布后，利好出尽高开低走，虽然季节性因素明显，但从其各方面指标来看都表现出众，仍具备长期投资价值，只是当下估值不便宜。而好未来虽然盘前大涨，但其以烧钱价格战换用户增长的方式或难以维继，相对估值仍较高，因此不为好的入场时机。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc62165bc0085c67c5ed750b41e56b05","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125568996","content_text":"中国教育培训行业最大的两家公司相继发布业绩，10月22日盘前，新东方（$(EDU)$）财报超预期发布后，股价高开低走，开盘创新高即回落。今天盘前好未来（$(TAL)$）发布业绩，盘前大涨逾6%，彷如新东方业绩财报当天，为什么两家公司走势如此分叉？好未来是否会步新东方后尘？\n总体来看，新东方的财报各项指标均表现出众，尤其是季度净利润同比大增70%达2.1亿美元。高开低走更有可能是因为其股价2019年以来已经大涨逾100%，诸多利好均提前反映到股价中，对于收入季节属性较强的新东方，在暑期利好兑现的当下获利了结或许是许多投资者的选择。此外，新东方动态市盈率（PE TTM）已经达55倍，就教育股而言当前估值较高。\n另一方面，好未来季度收入9.4亿美元，同比增长33.8%，归属公司净亏损1440万美元，连续两个季度亏损。虽然盘前大涨，但观其估值，高达70多倍的动态市盈率，对应其并不理想的业绩，仍不值得投资者现在买入。\n下面我们就几个核心指标分别来看看新东方和好未来的财报。由于两家公司的财年起始不同，截止2019年8月31日的 三个月是好未来2020财年第二季度，却是新东方2020财年的第一季度，因此我们以新东方财报时间为标准，好未来的按照相应实际时间段数据对应。\n新东方收入更大，但好未来学生更多\n新东方季度收入10.7亿美元，同比增长25%，好未来季度收入9.4亿美元，虽略低于新东方，但其33%的同比增速达更快。从下图也看出，新东方每个财年第一季度（暑期）都是全年业绩高峰时期。新东方的营收增长主要得益于招生人数的增加和客单价的提高。由于2018年11月的培训机构新政实施，秋季学期的报名分为上下两部分，因此在计算招生人数时，也统计了两部分人数的加总，导致新东方财报显示的招生人数增长了50.4%，远大于收入增速。实际踢除该影响后，从K12招生人数可见实际增长应该在30%~35%左右，基本持平上个季度的34%。\n此外，今年暑期促销活动中，新东方将促销课的价格从200元提到了400元，招生人数仍然增长了8%。在价格翻倍情况下，招生人数仍然增长且学员留存率依然接近80%，不得不说新东方的品牌价值和其口碑好。\n从好未来的财报看其季度收入增长主要来自线下业务的发展和在线课程的扩张。好未来当季招生人数增长重回55%，市场解除了上季度的增速放缓疑虑。从图上看，新东方的季度招生人数不及好未来，增速也不及好未来。但不得不注意的是，虽然同为K12业务，好未来的主要集中在小升初阶段，尤其是小学奥数一骑绝尘，随着2019年7月8日发布的“民办学校摇号政策”在各地陆续落地，可能会对其造成一定压力，中长期增长一定风险。\n截至2019年8月31日的季度，好未来已扩展至69个城市，共有758个教学中心，较上一季度净增33个教学中心。反之新东方却显然停下来扩张的脚步，同期新东方共有学校和学习中心1,261个，季度净增仅7个。\n由于新东方教学中心在总数量上大幅领先好未来，实际在一二线城市基本饱和，而低线城市扩张过程较为缓慢，这是由于教育的低于特殊性，每个地区每个城市的教研体系都不同，无法直接复制，需要再当地深耕产品研发。新东方选择慢下来，先提高现有的教学中心利用率和效率也不失为一种方式。\n好未来连续两季度净亏损，而新东方净利润大增 70%\n好未来归属公司净亏损为1440万美元，较上个季度归母净亏损730万美元几乎翻倍，上季度是好未来上市9年首次出现亏损。另一方面新东方归属公司净利润同比增长70%至2.1亿美元。\n二者的区别在于，暑期营销大战中，好未来投入巨资用以线上获客，换得招生人数同比增长55%。付出的代价是其销售和推广费用同比大增73.5%，从去年同期的1.5亿元上升至2.6亿元。费用上升直接导致其经营利润从上年同期的8090万美元下降到6990万美元，降幅为13.5%。（来自好未来财报）\n反观新东方，当季的销售和推广费用同比仅增长1.9%，却换来营收增长25%和招生人数30%以上的增速。此外，新东方当季的收入成本以及行政管理费用同比增长分别为19.8%和21.6%，均低于营收增速。成本的有效控制成为经营利润出众的核心驱动。（来自新东方财报）\n由下图可见，在非美会计准则下（不考虑股权激励费用，以及长期投资的公允价值变动的情况），新东方的经营利润是2.6亿美元，是好未来的2.6倍。另一方面，好未来在过去几年里一直都没有停下买买买步伐，参与的投资超过100起，在今年这样资本市场并不理想的年份，其财报提计的投资亏损和公允价值变化产生的亏损较上季度再次放大。（来自好未来财报）\n财报显示，当季其他费用为5560万美元，主要与具有可轻易确定的公允价值的股权证券的公允价值变动损失有关。而来自长期投资减值损失为5420万美元，上季度这一减值为5059万，去年同期为0。可以说，好未来的亏损才是一部教育创业公司的寒冬季。\n总结\n新东方财报发布后，利好出尽高开低走，虽然季节性因素明显，但从其各方面指标来看都表现出众，仍具备长期投资价值，只是当下估值不便宜。而好未来虽然盘前大涨，但其以烧钱价格战换用户增长的方式或难以维继，相对估值仍较高，因此不为好的入场时机。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307429353,"gmtCreate":1605624106372,"gmtModify":1703838649221,"author":{"id":"3520157596550321","authorId":"3520157596550321","name":"Abaaa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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