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人是鳝变得

人是鳝变得

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人是鳝变得

2020-12-22

$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$此股大年初一前不上50 我直播剁吊

人是鳝变得

2021-02-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎上100就是这个春天的故事

人是鳝变得

2021-03-10

$老虎证券(TIGR)$坚定的看到100

人是鳝变得

2020-12-09

$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 溢价率4个点多实际价值只有117

人是鳝变得

2020-11-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$双顶已现最后逃命的机会

人是鳝变得

2020-11-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$6.8今天是上不去了

人是鳝变得

2021-08-02

$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 虽然涨的慢但是一直涨

人是鳝变得

2021-02-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$直接上100吧

人是鳝变得

2020-11-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍

人是鳝变得

2021-08-17

建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了大家都不亏钱了皆大欢喜

港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”

人是鳝变得

2021-03-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$，坚定地看到100时间不会太久

人是鳝变得

2021-02-10

$玖富(JFU)$ $Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$臭名昭著的诈骗公司

人是鳝变得

2020-11-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这是第一鞭还有四鞭一共五鞭

人是鳝变得

2021-12-13

$PayPal(PYPL)$ 是不是中概股？

人是鳝变得

2021-02-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 只是研究又不是放开了研究T0几年了也没见放开还有只是一个官员说的又不是局长说的

人是鳝变得

2020-12-31

$Bit Digital,Inc(BTBT)$ 盘中会有一波大幅度的下跌

人是鳝变得

2020-11-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$赶紧跑吧再不跑就瀑布了没有上涨的动力了

人是鳝变得

2020-11-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$7.5不过是纸老虎一个闪电五连鞭就能吓跑

人是鳝变得

2021-12-17

‌$富途控股(FUTU)$‌做空中概股比价值投资微软苹果那些更容易翻倍

人是鳝变得

2021-10-05

$阿斯麦(ASML)$，即使跌到350，也还有25倍市盈率

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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13:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409275648","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0a2fdf3f020043eafb9942d6035b6\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p>尽管最近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股价大幅下跌，但方舟投资管理公司创始人凯茜·伍德对这家电动汽车制造商的信心毫不动摇。</p><p>众所周知，伍德是颠覆性技术的支持者。她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。</p><p>伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。有了这项服务，特斯拉可能会重新定义城市通勤，并巩固其作为电动汽车市场领导者的地位。伍德对这一愿景的坚定信心支撑她在特斯拉股价低迷之际继续投资该公司。</p><p>自去年12月20日以来，伍德的基金一直在逢低买入特斯拉的股票。</p><p>在周三的一次采访中，这位知名投资者重申了她的预测，即特斯拉股价可以在五年内达到2000美元，市值将超过5万亿美元，并指出她正计划修订这一目标。</p><p>伍德表示：“我们一直在买入特斯拉。现在股票中有太多的负面心理。我们认为电动汽车将继续扩大市场份额，并在未来五年内真正成为市场主体。在那之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>出租车将彻底改变这一格局。”</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“木头姐”继续唱多特斯拉：预计两年内推出机器人出租车服务\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-08 13:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-08/doc-inahhxhk7222564.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管最近特斯拉的股价大幅下跌，但方舟投资管理公司创始人凯茜·伍德对这家电动汽车制造商的信心毫不动摇。众所周知，伍德是颠覆性技术的支持者。她设想，在未来两年内即将推出的自动驾驶出租车服务的推动下，特斯拉将迎来一个新的增长周期。伍德认为，自动驾驶出租车服务是一项革命性的发展，可能会加速特斯拉的增长轨迹。有了这项服务，特斯拉可能会重新定义城市通勤，并巩固其作为电动汽车市场领导者的地位。伍德对这一愿景的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-02-08/doc-inahhxhk7222564.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb0a2fdf3f020043eafb9942d6035b6","relate_stocks":{"LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood增持微软和Meta股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-12-12 14:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日，Cathie Wood约九个月内来首次买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票，加大对与人工智能(AI)相关的美国超大型科技股的押注力度。</p><p>数据显示，今年跑赢纳斯达克100指数的Ark Next Generation Internet ETF周一买入8,810股微软股票，是该基金3月20日以来首次增持该股。 </p><p>另外，时隔五个月，该基金还买入了10,212股Facebook母公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc.的股票。（彭博）</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","MSFT":"微软","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$富时新加坡海峡指数(STI.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/243444419236080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":175,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":224899149480120,"gmtCreate":1695915115843,"gmtModify":1695915117773,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","listText":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","text":"抖音乱封号问题严重，因为一句话不中他意就封你俩月半年，所以从来不在抖音买东西","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224899149480120","repostId":"2370747356","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2370747356","pubTimestamp":1695880516,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2370747356?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-28 13:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里腾讯世纪大“和解”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2370747356","media":"全天候科技","summary":"开放的生态。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>十年前，阿里暂停与微信相关的第三方应用服务，淘宝与微信外链不再直接跳转。马云与马化腾亲手筑起了“柏林墙”，“柏林墙”两端，亿万淘宝和微信的用户遥遥相望，不得直接往来，泾渭分明。</p><p>十年后，中国两个最大的互联网巨头奋力拆墙，上演了一出世纪大和解。</p><p>9月25日，阿里妈妈与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>广告进一步深化合作，微信视频号、朋友圈、小程序等优质广告流量将通过阿里妈妈UD效果投放，并可直跳淘宝、天猫商家的店铺、商品详情及淘宝直播间。</p><p>同时，腾讯广告显示，双方还将在人群互补、系统共建等方面深度融合，满足商家在店铺、直播、内容3大经营中心的不同经营目标。</p><p>据悉，此次阿里妈妈与腾讯广告的目标是——备战“双11”。双方将共同启动“双11超引爆计划”，投入亿元补贴，以实现引流到店、促进成交的目标。</p><p>作为腾讯的核心业务之一，这也意味着，腾讯把核心的流量资源向阿里开放了。阿里与腾讯之间的拆墙迈出巨大一步。</p><p>对于现在的阿里和腾讯而言，拆墙利大于弊。</p><p>IPG中国首席经济学家柏文喜分析，腾讯拥有庞大的用户基础和社交媒体平台，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>则拥有强大的电商和支付平台，通过合作，双方可实现共赢。“腾讯广告跳转到淘宝，可将自己的流量导入淘宝，提高自身广告收入；而淘宝则通过腾讯的流量导入可获得更多的潜在消费者，增加销售机会”。</p><p>这对今年的阿里来说，格外充满诱惑。</p><p>放眼现在国内电商江湖，竞争日益激烈，高端有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>，下沉有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，直播有抖音。微信作为超级流量池，截至2023年6月30日，微信及WeChat的合并月活跃账户数达13.27亿，稳坐国民第一社交App”宝座。</p><p>更何况，今年阿里巴巴宣布回归淘宝，淘天集团提出“用户为先”、“生态繁荣”、“科技驱动”三大变革举措，通过流量扶持、改版等重点扶持中小商家。而由于商家广告投资意愿增强，今年4月-6月，淘天集团客户管理收入为796.6亿元，同比增长10%。</p><p>阿里巴巴的电商江湖也将是腾讯新的淘金场。二季度，腾讯广告业务实现收入250亿元，同比增长34%。其中，视频号贡献了超30亿。财报电话会上，腾讯表示将逐步提高微信视频号的广告占比，“利用视频号、小程序等基础设施，可以孕育出广告收入翻倍的机会。”</p><p>有业内人士表示，中国市场太大，消费阶层、消费习惯天差地别，一家企业想要做成寡头垄断根本不可能，阿里和腾讯以前互相隔离，结果增长受限，让拼多多和抖音起来了。</p><p>现在阿里和腾讯两家合作，实现尽可能多的覆盖，才能争夺更多流量。“此外，基于开放合作，数据也将实现互通，彼此都可以获得更加精准的“用户画像”，从而更加精准的推荐各自产品，提升效率和效益”。</p><p>实际上，2020年开始，两大巨头就结束“屏蔽战”，开始拆墙了。2020年下半年，QQ音乐上开始出现飞猪的广告。2021年起，腾讯视频、腾讯新闻等app广告，微信里的淘宝链接可直跳淘宝，市场上一度传出阿里巴巴、腾讯正考虑互相开放生态系统，两巨头当日股价一度上涨3%多。</p><p>这背后是，随着2021年互联网行业反垄断风暴来袭，以及京东、抖音、快手、拼多多等多方互联网巨头崛起，与二马分庭抗礼，此前忙于互掐的马云、马化腾这位初代互联网大佬越来越意识到，割据一方、野蛮生长的时代已经过去，互联网江湖流量到了“存量争夺”的时代。开放生态、互联互通、互相借力，探索新的发展边界，才有望实现收益突破。</p><p>而自由开放、共享互通、去中心化本就是互联网的应有之义。</p><p>如今，不过是马云和马化腾兜兜转转终于回归初心罢了。</p><p>这样的互通，离马化腾打造“没有疆界、开放分享的互联网新生态” 的初心、马云“未来互联网不会有边界”的预言也更进一步。</p><p>这是一场轰轰烈烈的行业拆墙运动，除了阿里和腾讯之外，各大互联网公司都卷入其中。</p><p>2021年底以来，已经有美团与快手达成互联互通的战略合作，美团在快手上线美团小程序，腾讯视频与抖音达成合作等。</p><p>柏文喜表示，阿里和腾讯的此次合作更好地反映了互联网行业开放、互联互通的趋势。各个互联网公司都在努力打通彼此之间的“围墙”，实现不同平台之间的互联互通。通过合作和创新互联网公司可开发出更多创新的产品和服务，提高经济效益。</p><p>对于行业而言，在早期互联网行业肆意扩张、割据之后，一个新的互联网江湖已经诞生。</p><p>在越来越开放的市场环境中，马化腾、张一鸣、刘强东、王兴们……都要适应新的法则，为捍卫、创造更多利益而握手言欢。</p></body></html>","source":"awtmt_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里腾讯世纪大“和解”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里腾讯世纪大“和解”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-28 13:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3698849?extract=1><strong>全天候科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>十年前，阿里暂停与微信相关的第三方应用服务，淘宝与微信外链不再直接跳转。马云与马化腾亲手筑起了“柏林墙”，“柏林墙”两端，亿万淘宝和微信的用户遥遥相望，不得直接往来，泾渭分明。十年后，中国两个最大的互联网巨头奋力拆墙，上演了一出世纪大和解。9月25日，阿里妈妈与腾讯广告进一步深化合作，微信视频号、朋友圈、小程序等优质广告流量将通过阿里妈妈UD效果投放，并可直跳淘宝、天猫商家的店铺、商品详情及淘宝...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3698849?extract=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b8ce1e26b61b639260351bda4882d5","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348788117.USD":"ALLIANZ EMERGING ASIA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","BK1591":"就地过年概念","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","LU0287142896.SGD":"Fidelity China Focus A-SGD","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3698849?extract=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2370747356","content_text":"十年前，阿里暂停与微信相关的第三方应用服务，淘宝与微信外链不再直接跳转。马云与马化腾亲手筑起了“柏林墙”，“柏林墙”两端，亿万淘宝和微信的用户遥遥相望，不得直接往来，泾渭分明。十年后，中国两个最大的互联网巨头奋力拆墙，上演了一出世纪大和解。9月25日，阿里妈妈与腾讯广告进一步深化合作，微信视频号、朋友圈、小程序等优质广告流量将通过阿里妈妈UD效果投放，并可直跳淘宝、天猫商家的店铺、商品详情及淘宝直播间。同时，腾讯广告显示，双方还将在人群互补、系统共建等方面深度融合，满足商家在店铺、直播、内容3大经营中心的不同经营目标。据悉，此次阿里妈妈与腾讯广告的目标是——备战“双11”。双方将共同启动“双11超引爆计划”，投入亿元补贴，以实现引流到店、促进成交的目标。作为腾讯的核心业务之一，这也意味着，腾讯把核心的流量资源向阿里开放了。阿里与腾讯之间的拆墙迈出巨大一步。对于现在的阿里和腾讯而言，拆墙利大于弊。IPG中国首席经济学家柏文喜分析，腾讯拥有庞大的用户基础和社交媒体平台，阿里巴巴则拥有强大的电商和支付平台，通过合作，双方可实现共赢。“腾讯广告跳转到淘宝，可将自己的流量导入淘宝，提高自身广告收入；而淘宝则通过腾讯的流量导入可获得更多的潜在消费者，增加销售机会”。这对今年的阿里来说，格外充满诱惑。放眼现在国内电商江湖，竞争日益激烈，高端有京东，下沉有拼多多，直播有抖音。微信作为超级流量池，截至2023年6月30日，微信及WeChat的合并月活跃账户数达13.27亿，稳坐国民第一社交App”宝座。更何况，今年阿里巴巴宣布回归淘宝，淘天集团提出“用户为先”、“生态繁荣”、“科技驱动”三大变革举措，通过流量扶持、改版等重点扶持中小商家。而由于商家广告投资意愿增强，今年4月-6月，淘天集团客户管理收入为796.6亿元，同比增长10%。阿里巴巴的电商江湖也将是腾讯新的淘金场。二季度，腾讯广告业务实现收入250亿元，同比增长34%。其中，视频号贡献了超30亿。财报电话会上，腾讯表示将逐步提高微信视频号的广告占比，“利用视频号、小程序等基础设施，可以孕育出广告收入翻倍的机会。”有业内人士表示，中国市场太大，消费阶层、消费习惯天差地别，一家企业想要做成寡头垄断根本不可能，阿里和腾讯以前互相隔离，结果增长受限，让拼多多和抖音起来了。现在阿里和腾讯两家合作，实现尽可能多的覆盖，才能争夺更多流量。“此外，基于开放合作，数据也将实现互通，彼此都可以获得更加精准的“用户画像”，从而更加精准的推荐各自产品，提升效率和效益”。实际上，2020年开始，两大巨头就结束“屏蔽战”，开始拆墙了。2020年下半年，QQ音乐上开始出现飞猪的广告。2021年起，腾讯视频、腾讯新闻等app广告，微信里的淘宝链接可直跳淘宝，市场上一度传出阿里巴巴、腾讯正考虑互相开放生态系统，两巨头当日股价一度上涨3%多。这背后是，随着2021年互联网行业反垄断风暴来袭，以及京东、抖音、快手、拼多多等多方互联网巨头崛起，与二马分庭抗礼，此前忙于互掐的马云、马化腾这位初代互联网大佬越来越意识到，割据一方、野蛮生长的时代已经过去，互联网江湖流量到了“存量争夺”的时代。开放生态、互联互通、互相借力，探索新的发展边界，才有望实现收益突破。而自由开放、共享互通、去中心化本就是互联网的应有之义。如今，不过是马云和马化腾兜兜转转终于回归初心罢了。这样的互通，离马化腾打造“没有疆界、开放分享的互联网新生态” 的初心、马云“未来互联网不会有边界”的预言也更进一步。这是一场轰轰烈烈的行业拆墙运动，除了阿里和腾讯之外，各大互联网公司都卷入其中。2021年底以来，已经有美团与快手达成互联互通的战略合作，美团在快手上线美团小程序，腾讯视频与抖音达成合作等。柏文喜表示，阿里和腾讯的此次合作更好地反映了互联网行业开放、互联互通的趋势。各个互联网公司都在努力打通彼此之间的“围墙”，实现不同平台之间的互联互通。通过合作和创新互联网公司可开发出更多创新的产品和服务，提高经济效益。对于行业而言，在早期互联网行业肆意扩张、割据之后，一个新的互联网江湖已经诞生。在越来越开放的市场环境中，马化腾、张一鸣、刘强东、王兴们……都要适应新的法则，为捍卫、创造更多利益而握手言欢。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":224624961400872,"gmtCreate":1695848138899,"gmtModify":1695848141163,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率&nbsp; &nbsp;改革有什么用&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率&nbsp; &nbsp;改革有什么用&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"一本正经的胡说八道，股票上涨的动力是价值，价值的本质是净资产收益率 改革有什么用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224624961400872","repostId":"2370750177","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2370750177","pubTimestamp":1695809467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2370750177?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-27 18:11","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"可怕！这个指数20年里暴跌98%，逼近“归零”，改革要来了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2370750177","media":"财华社","summary":"2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。","content":"<html><body><p>2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。</p><p><strong>20</strong><strong>年里累跌98%</strong><strong>，对新股吸引力“归零”</strong></p><p>1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年的时间里，创业板指数暴跌近90%。</p><p>面对此情此景，港交所想到的办法大概就是这把玩砸了，重开一局。</p><p>2003年，港交所启用标普香港创业板指数（以下简称“标普创业板指数”），基点为1000点。</p><p>却没想到，时间过去20年，这把又玩砸了。</p><p>9月27日，标普创业板指数再跌0.37%，截至收盘只剩24.13点，<strong>2023</strong><strong>年年内跌幅已超33%</strong><strong>，而在过去20</strong><strong>年里累跌近98%</strong><strong>。</strong></p><p>从成交量来看，标普创业板指数也是“越过越抽抽”，<strong>近期全天成交额已不足</strong><strong>1</strong><strong>亿港元。</strong></p><p><img height=\"682\" src=\"https://images.finet.hk/photoLib/content/202309_1/75163ecb-7ece-4901-9fc0-d20046e66e6f.png\" width=\"1025\"/></p><p>标普创业板指数表现如此，可以想见该板块的基本功能已经难以实现。</p><p>数据显示，目前创业板上市公司有341家，规模其实很小。</p><p>而就在这些创业板公司中，<strong>总市值最大的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08137\">洪桥集团</a>（</strong><strong>08137.HK</strong><strong>）也只有不到40</strong><strong>亿港元市值，</strong>连主板“大块头”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>（00700.HK）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>（09988.HK）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>（00941.HK）的一个零头都比不上。</p><p>另外，创业板个股中，股价超过1港元的占比也很低，只有不到20家。另一边，超过半数的创业板股票近期处于零成交状态。<strong>具备股价低、成交低等一些特征的股票一般被冠以“仙股”的名头。</strong></p><p>值得一提的是，这样的创业板对新股显然已经没有什么吸引力了，这个板块也有很长一段时间没有迎来新鲜血液了。</p><p>据统计，2023年至今，港股市场的新股全部为主板上市，创业板直接就给“忽视”了，而上一只在创业板上市的股票还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08489\">裕程物流</a>（08489.HK），该股于2021年1月13日在创业板上市。</p><p>这也就是说，<strong>在过去两年多的时间里，港股创业板没有赢得任何一只新股的青睐，</strong>简直“惨不忍睹”。</p><p><strong>创业板越来越不行，原因何在？</strong></p><p>港股市场在全球范围内亦是数得着的知名资本市场，很难想象创业板的表现何以会如此之差？</p><p>其实创业板之所以走到今天有很多原因。</p><p>例如，创业板最初的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资，但后来港交所不断“打补丁”，许多原本不能在主板上市的企业纷纷也涌向主板，从某种程度上“吸血”了创业板。</p><p>这也导致创业板逐渐失去了对新股的吸引力，其结果就是板块多年没有“上新”。</p><p>与此同时，创业板内一些公司还纷纷“出逃”，转向主板上市。</p><p>另一方面，标普创业板指数在过去很多年没有调整指数的成分股，这也是导致指数表现一日不如一日的一个原因，进而丧失对新股的吸引力。</p><p>在逐渐“沉沦”后，创业板逐渐变成了一个“仙股”遍地的市场，而这些“仙股”还在玩一些“割韭菜”的套路，进一步赶跑了投资者，进入了恶性循环之中。</p><p><strong>创业板亟需改革，方案有望年内就推出</strong></p><p>值得一提的是，这次港交所不打算重开一局了，而是设法通过改革的方式盘活现有的局面。</p><p>港交所此前就表示，将尽快就创业板（GEM）改革向公众展开咨询，并成立专责小组处理有关创业板的检讨，以吸纳来自投资者和证券业内代表的意见。</p><p>9月26日，港交所终于发布公告称，<strong>就</strong><strong>GEM</strong><strong>（创业板）上市改革咨询市场意见，时间为期六周，将于2023</strong><strong>年11</strong><strong>月6</strong><strong>日结束。</strong></p><p>据了解，香港联交所表示，此次刊发的有关创业板（GEM）上市改革的咨询文件，<strong>主要有四个方面，分别为引入“简化转板机制”、全新的财务资格测试、将</strong><strong>GEM</strong><strong>发行人的持续合规要求与主板一致、缩短控股股东IPO</strong><strong>后禁售期。</strong></p><p>其中，建议引入全新的“简化转板机制”备受关注。</p><p>根据咨询建议，允许合资格的创业板发行人转往主板时无须委任保荐人进行尽职调查，也不需要刊发招股说明书。</p><p>这种做法显然比之前的转板规定更为宽松，同时有助于转板企业降低合规成本。</p><p>全新的财务资格测试是指，对于首次上市规定，为大量投入研发活动的高增长企业推出新的资格测试。采用此新测试的创业板上市申请人，除符合其他条件外，须确保其在上市前两个财政年度的合计研发开支不少于3000万港元，而每个财政年度的研发开支占同期总营运开支达15%或以上。</p><p>总的来看，港股市场的创业板已经丧失了基本职能，到了不得不改的地步，具体的改革方案有望在年内就拿出来。而改革方案能否令港股创业板“焕发新机”则仍需持续跟踪。</p></body></html>","source":"finet_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n可怕！这个指数20年里暴跌98%，逼近“归零”，改革要来了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-27 18:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5><strong>财华社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。20年里累跌98%，对新股吸引力“归零”1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://images.finet.hk/photoLib/title/202309_1/a37a3a0e-5707-4062-aa90-e544d0d0f92d.png","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","80883":"中国海洋石油-R","89988":"阿里巴巴-WR","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","BABA":"阿里巴巴","LU0128522157.USD":"TEMPLETON ASIAN GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","000001.SH":"上证指数","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","BK1142":"互联网与直销零售","IE00BGV7N243.SGD":"FSSA Global Emerging Markets Focus I Acc SGD","LU0054450605.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EMERGING MARKTS EQ \"AD\" INC","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0315178854.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME \"A\" ACC","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","00941":"中国移动","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK1531":"手游股","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU1497733631.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund ASDM SGD","08489":"裕程物流","LU0029874905.USD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" INC","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","GEM":"Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Emerging Markets Equity ETF","LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1497734951.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund ASDM SGD-H","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1497733557.USD":"EASTSPRING INV ASIAN LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) INC A","BK1526":"科网股","08137":"洪桥集团","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0320764755.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD","BK1152":"无线电信业务","LU0293314216.USD":"ALLIANZ GEM EQUITY HIGH DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","00700":"腾讯控股","IE0032431581.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1634259557.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Asian Low Volatility Equity Fund AS SGD-H","LU0048597586.USD":"富达亚洲焦点A","LU0163747925.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS ASIAN EQUITY A ACC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://www.finet.hk/newscenter/news_content/6513ffbbbde0b375aabeacf5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2370750177","content_text":"2023年以来，在外围多国股市一片红火的情况下，港股却表现得比较疲软。其中，港股市场创业板的表现用某些投资者的话说那是相当的“辣眼睛”，甚至因为表现太差而“反向”引起了高度关注。20年里累跌98%，对新股吸引力“归零”1999年，港股市场推出了创业板，彼时这个板块的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资。不过，推出没多久，创业板就遭遇了“科网股泡沫”，在科网股暴跌的带动下，不足三年的时间里，创业板指数暴跌近90%。面对此情此景，港交所想到的办法大概就是这把玩砸了，重开一局。2003年，港交所启用标普香港创业板指数（以下简称“标普创业板指数”），基点为1000点。却没想到，时间过去20年，这把又玩砸了。9月27日，标普创业板指数再跌0.37%，截至收盘只剩24.13点，2023年年内跌幅已超33%，而在过去20年里累跌近98%。从成交量来看，标普创业板指数也是“越过越抽抽”，近期全天成交额已不足1亿港元。标普创业板指数表现如此，可以想见该板块的基本功能已经难以实现。数据显示，目前创业板上市公司有341家，规模其实很小。而就在这些创业板公司中，总市值最大的洪桥集团（08137.HK）也只有不到40亿港元市值，连主板“大块头”腾讯控股（00700.HK）、阿里巴巴（09988.HK）、中国移动（00941.HK）的一个零头都比不上。另外，创业板个股中，股价超过1港元的占比也很低，只有不到20家。另一边，超过半数的创业板股票近期处于零成交状态。具备股价低、成交低等一些特征的股票一般被冠以“仙股”的名头。值得一提的是，这样的创业板对新股显然已经没有什么吸引力了，这个板块也有很长一段时间没有迎来新鲜血液了。据统计，2023年至今，港股市场的新股全部为主板上市，创业板直接就给“忽视”了，而上一只在创业板上市的股票还是裕程物流（08489.HK），该股于2021年1月13日在创业板上市。这也就是说，在过去两年多的时间里，港股创业板没有赢得任何一只新股的青睐，简直“惨不忍睹”。创业板越来越不行，原因何在？港股市场在全球范围内亦是数得着的知名资本市场，很难想象创业板的表现何以会如此之差？其实创业板之所以走到今天有很多原因。例如，创业板最初的定位是给不具备主板上市条件的中小企业及创新企业上市募资，但后来港交所不断“打补丁”，许多原本不能在主板上市的企业纷纷也涌向主板，从某种程度上“吸血”了创业板。这也导致创业板逐渐失去了对新股的吸引力，其结果就是板块多年没有“上新”。与此同时，创业板内一些公司还纷纷“出逃”，转向主板上市。另一方面，标普创业板指数在过去很多年没有调整指数的成分股，这也是导致指数表现一日不如一日的一个原因，进而丧失对新股的吸引力。在逐渐“沉沦”后，创业板逐渐变成了一个“仙股”遍地的市场，而这些“仙股”还在玩一些“割韭菜”的套路，进一步赶跑了投资者，进入了恶性循环之中。创业板亟需改革，方案有望年内就推出值得一提的是，这次港交所不打算重开一局了，而是设法通过改革的方式盘活现有的局面。港交所此前就表示，将尽快就创业板（GEM）改革向公众展开咨询，并成立专责小组处理有关创业板的检讨，以吸纳来自投资者和证券业内代表的意见。9月26日，港交所终于发布公告称，就GEM（创业板）上市改革咨询市场意见，时间为期六周，将于2023年11月6日结束。据了解，香港联交所表示，此次刊发的有关创业板（GEM）上市改革的咨询文件，主要有四个方面，分别为引入“简化转板机制”、全新的财务资格测试、将GEM发行人的持续合规要求与主板一致、缩短控股股东IPO后禁售期。其中，建议引入全新的“简化转板机制”备受关注。根据咨询建议，允许合资格的创业板发行人转往主板时无须委任保荐人进行尽职调查，也不需要刊发招股说明书。这种做法显然比之前的转板规定更为宽松，同时有助于转板企业降低合规成本。全新的财务资格测试是指，对于首次上市规定，为大量投入研发活动的高增长企业推出新的资格测试。采用此新测试的创业板上市申请人，除符合其他条件外，须确保其在上市前两个财政年度的合计研发开支不少于3000万港元，而每个财政年度的研发开支占同期总营运开支达15%或以上。总的来看，港股市场的创业板已经丧失了基本职能，到了不得不改的地步，具体的改革方案有望在年内就拿出来。而改革方案能否令港股创业板“焕发新机”则仍需持续跟踪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667319157,"gmtCreate":1668568500480,"gmtModify":1668568501399,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a>回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$&nbsp;</a>回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$ 回调一下吧 一直涨是不健康的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667319157","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669165648,"gmtCreate":1662165337384,"gmtModify":1662165338322,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最好停止收购&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"最好停止收购&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"最好停止收购","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669165648","repostId":"2264217626","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2264217626","pubTimestamp":1662074571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2264217626?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-02 07:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2264217626","media":"金融界网站","summary":"微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。　　除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>计划以690亿美元收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">动视暴雪</a>的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。</p><p>英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。</p><p>CMA表示：“我们担心，如果微软收购动视暴雪，它可能会通过拒绝让竞争对手访问动视暴雪的游戏、或以更糟糕的条款提供访问，从而伤害竞争对手，包括最近和未来进入游戏行业的人。”</p><p>今年1月，微软宣布将以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪，交易总金额约为690亿美元。交易完成后，微软将成为世界上营收第三高的游戏公司，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNE\">索尼</a>。</p><p>7月，CMA宣布，已对微软收购动视暴雪交易展开“初步的”反垄断调查。CMA表示，将评估这笔交易是否会损害市场竞争，导致价格上涨或消费者选择空间减少。CMA当时预计，初步调查将在今年9月1日前完成，之后再决定是否展开进一步的深入调查。</p><p>除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。到目前为止，只有沙特阿拉伯宣布批准该交易。</p></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微软收购动视暴雪将受英国反垄断机构深度调查\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-02 07:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml><strong>金融界网站</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","ATVI":"动视暴雪","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","MSFT":"微软","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4576":"AR"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2022/09/02020336964766.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2264217626","content_text":"微软计划以690亿美元收购动视暴雪的交易将受到英国反垄断机构的深度调查，原因是该交易可能会导致市场竞争被大幅削弱。英国竞争与市场管理局（CMA）周四在一份声明中称：“除非双方提供可接受的承诺，来解决这些竞争问题。否则，将对该交易展开进一步的深入调查。”CMA表示，微软收购动视暴雪可能会“大大减少游戏主机、多游戏订阅服务和云游戏服务市场的竞争”。该机构要求微软和动视暴雪在9月8日之前提供可接受的补救措施。CMA表示：“我们担心，如果微软收购动视暴雪，它可能会通过拒绝让竞争对手访问动视暴雪的游戏、或以更糟糕的条款提供访问，从而伤害竞争对手，包括最近和未来进入游戏行业的人。”今年1月，微软宣布将以每股95美元的现金收购游戏开发和互动娱乐内容发行商动视暴雪，交易总金额约为690亿美元。交易完成后，微软将成为世界上营收第三高的游戏公司，仅次于腾讯和索尼。7月，CMA宣布，已对微软收购动视暴雪交易展开“初步的”反垄断调查。CMA表示，将评估这笔交易是否会损害市场竞争，导致价格上涨或消费者选择空间减少。CMA当时预计，初步调查将在今年9月1日前完成，之后再决定是否展开进一步的深入调查。除了CMA，微软收购动视暴雪的交易也遭到了全球其他监管机构的质询和调查，包括美国、新西兰和巴西等。到目前为止，只有沙特阿拉伯宣布批准该交易。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682238904,"gmtCreate":1659004201710,"gmtModify":1659004201710,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"下来吧 我还有put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","listText":"下来吧 我还有put<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a>","text":"下来吧 我还有put$谷歌(GOOG)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682238904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686026131,"gmtCreate":1657900841328,"gmtModify":1704868683240,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"需求也变了&nbsp; 我原计划要买特斯拉&nbsp; 疫情搞得我只能买爱玛越野","listText":"需求也变了&nbsp; 我原计划要买特斯拉&nbsp; 疫情搞得我只能买爱玛越野","text":"需求也变了 我原计划要买特斯拉 疫情搞得我只能买爱玛越野","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686026131","repostId":"2251489275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2251489275","pubTimestamp":1657869999,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2251489275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-15 15:26","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2251489275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>华尔街认为，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。</p><p>美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。</p><p>Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：</p><blockquote>基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。</blockquote><p>本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降：第二季度的全球出货量约为25.5万辆，低于第一季度的约31万辆。</p><p>这导致一些分析师下调了对该公司本季度业绩的预期。但Selesky说，华尔街已经考虑到了特斯拉面临的一些问题，投资者也意识到了。他表示，由于成本降低和利润率，他预计特斯拉将“小幅”超出预期。</p><p><b>瑞信的 Dan Levy 担心特斯拉第二季度的利润率将承压，预计特斯拉第二季度的毛利率约为23%，较第一季度下降约7%。他在报告中写道：“我们预计第二季度将重点关注毛利率。”但他也表示，预计随着特斯拉销量的增长，其下半年的利润率将有所回升。</b></p><p>FactSet 调查的分析师预计，特斯拉第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.86美元，相比之下，去年同期调整后每股收益为1.45美元，Levy预计为1.31美元；分析师预计特斯拉第二季度的营业收入为175亿美元，销售额为166亿美元，而去年同期的销售额为120亿美元。</p><p>今年以来，特斯拉股价下跌了约34%，表现逊于大盘指数，标普500指数下跌了约21%。然而，在过去12个月里，特斯拉股价的表现超过了大盘指数：特斯拉股价上涨了近10%，而标普500指数则下跌了约14%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/decd2dbfcbb6238f92ebe9bb734074a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Levy 还说，特斯拉在德国柏林和得克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂增加了一些产量，但在这两个地方“进展仍然低于预期”，而奥斯汀的“增产速度较慢”，因为它要使用新的4680电池。<b>Levy 预计第二季度仍将面临挑战，但在总体上仍是积极的。</b></p><p>特斯拉还必须应对外界对其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克试图终止收购推特交易的担忧。本周早些时候，推特称马斯克试图退出这笔交易是“无效和错误的”。</p><p>对美国经济状况的担忧也可能是华尔街对特斯拉本季度业绩进行评估的一个因素。特斯拉最近在加州提交了裁员通知，圣马特奥县约230名员工受到影响。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>的埃马纽埃尔·罗斯纳在最近的一份报告中表示：“这是特斯拉最新的裁员行动，特斯拉打算在全球范围内裁减10%的正式员工，意味着包括小时工在内的总员工人数将减少约3.5%。”该分析师称，由于预期经济衰退即将到来，预计裁员将在未来三个月内进行。</p><p>中国电动汽车制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>在第二季度遇到了与特斯拉类似的许多阻力，但其销量仍环比增长：比亚迪第二季度的销量从今年第一季度的约29.1万辆增至约35.5万辆。产量增加是比亚迪业绩优于预期的原因之一。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉二季报要爆雷？华尔街关注这个指标\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-15 15:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"FNGU":"MicroSectors FANG+ 指数每日三倍做多 ETN","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664881","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251489275","content_text":"华尔街认为，特斯拉将准备迎接艰难的第二季度。美东时间7月20日周三美股盘后，特斯拉将公布第二季度财报业绩，分析师担心这家电动汽车制造商经历了一个十分困难的季度，原因是供应链持续受阻，以及与疫情相关的工厂停工。Argus Research 分析师 Bill Selesky 表示：基于持续的供应链问题和工厂停工，我们完全预计（第二季度）会很艰难。本月早些时候，特斯拉公布的数据显示第二季度交付量同比下降：第二季度的全球出货量约为25.5万辆，低于第一季度的约31万辆。这导致一些分析师下调了对该公司本季度业绩的预期。但Selesky说，华尔街已经考虑到了特斯拉面临的一些问题，投资者也意识到了。他表示，由于成本降低和利润率，他预计特斯拉将“小幅”超出预期。瑞信的 Dan Levy 担心特斯拉第二季度的利润率将承压，预计特斯拉第二季度的毛利率约为23%，较第一季度下降约7%。他在报告中写道：“我们预计第二季度将重点关注毛利率。”但他也表示，预计随着特斯拉销量的增长，其下半年的利润率将有所回升。FactSet 调查的分析师预计，特斯拉第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.86美元，相比之下，去年同期调整后每股收益为1.45美元，Levy预计为1.31美元；分析师预计特斯拉第二季度的营业收入为175亿美元，销售额为166亿美元，而去年同期的销售额为120亿美元。今年以来，特斯拉股价下跌了约34%，表现逊于大盘指数，标普500指数下跌了约21%。然而，在过去12个月里，特斯拉股价的表现超过了大盘指数：特斯拉股价上涨了近10%，而标普500指数则下跌了约14%。Levy 还说，特斯拉在德国柏林和得克萨斯州奥斯汀的工厂增加了一些产量，但在这两个地方“进展仍然低于预期”，而奥斯汀的“增产速度较慢”，因为它要使用新的4680电池。Levy 预计第二季度仍将面临挑战，但在总体上仍是积极的。特斯拉还必须应对外界对其首席执行官埃隆·马斯克试图终止收购推特交易的担忧。本周早些时候，推特称马斯克试图退出这笔交易是“无效和错误的”。对美国经济状况的担忧也可能是华尔街对特斯拉本季度业绩进行评估的一个因素。特斯拉最近在加州提交了裁员通知，圣马特奥县约230名员工受到影响。德意志银行的埃马纽埃尔·罗斯纳在最近的一份报告中表示：“这是特斯拉最新的裁员行动，特斯拉打算在全球范围内裁减10%的正式员工，意味着包括小时工在内的总员工人数将减少约3.5%。”该分析师称，由于预期经济衰退即将到来，预计裁员将在未来三个月内进行。中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪在第二季度遇到了与特斯拉类似的许多阻力，但其销量仍环比增长：比亚迪第二季度的销量从今年第一季度的约29.1万辆增至约35.5万辆。产量增加是比亚迪业绩优于预期的原因之一。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688711966,"gmtCreate":1657849464260,"gmtModify":1704868455618,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>‌跌啊&nbsp; 非等我进来你才跌是吧&nbsp;","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>‌跌啊&nbsp; 非等我进来你才跌是吧&nbsp;","text":"‌$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$‌跌啊 非等我进来你才跌是吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688711966","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680446100,"gmtCreate":1655213036702,"gmtModify":1704861522360,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","listText":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","text":"最后一句话血淋淋啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680446100","repostId":"1179371572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1179371572","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655210530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179371572?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-14 20:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"盘前观察 | 美联储本周会打出哪种加息组合？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179371572","media":"老虎锐评","summary":">>>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>&gt;&gt;&gt;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1185238788\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力</b></a><b></b></p><p>就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。</p><p>市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。</p><p><b>1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。</b>目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。</p><p><b>2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。</b>鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前观察 | 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20:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>&gt;&gt;&gt;</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1185238788\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力</b></a><b></b></p><p>就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。</p><p>市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。</p><p><b>1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。</b>目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。</p><p><b>2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。</b>鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。</p><p><b>3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。</b>考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。</p><p>如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179371572","content_text":">>>盘前 | 加息步伐加快？美股指期货反弹乏力就是一天时间，市场认为美联储在周三加息75个基点的概率提高到接近100%。也就在昨天，不少投行都发表加息75个基点的报告，这些投行包括Barclays，Jefferies, GS和JPM。美联储今天开始为期两天的闭门会议，这些市场信息自然已经进入了美联储特别是鲍威尔的耳朵。市场目前关注明天是加息50个基点还是75个基点，但市场会更加关注的是美联储加息后的表态，这里可能存在如下几种组合形式。1，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔依旧暗示7月加息50个基点。目前市场已经认为明天会加息75个基点，所以如果美联储宣布加息50个基点，那么市场肯定会觉得是非常鸽派的言论。市场情绪一定得到提振，股市也会走好，但这个组合的可能性非常低。2，美联储宣布加息75个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能也加息75个基点。鲍威尔在上次FOMC会议之后，否定了这次加息75个基点的可能（A 75 basis point increase is not something that the committee is actively considering）。按照以往的鲍威尔风格，不愿意给市场意外，说了加息50个基点就加息50个基点。但这次市场如果自己“悟到”了75个基点，那么鲍威尔自己食言问题也不大——反正市场都预期了75个基点，何不借此机会兑现市场的预期呢？对于7月份的加息暗示，美联储也可能预期管理到75个基点。因为从各种资料能够看得出来，鲍威尔认为管理人们心中的“通胀预期”，和管理实际的市场“通胀预期”同样重要，因为通胀会出现“自我实现”的现象（self-fulfilling）。这个组合可能是最鹰派的组合，市场一定不喜欢。3，美联储宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔暗示7月可能加息75个基点。考虑到鲍威尔毕竟自己否定过加息75基点预期，所以坚守承诺的可能性还是有的，毕竟美联储还是要有一定的权威性，不能“市场说什么就跟着市场走”。但是，即使这次宣布加息50个基点，鲍威尔同样也会宣布下次加息往75个基点看齐。而且为了管理人们心中的预期，鲍威尔甚至会刻意加强下次加息75个基点的预期。这个组合貌似是鸽派鹰派组合，但市场同样不喜欢。如果硬要给这三种情况概率的话，我觉得是10%，50%和40%。说得更直白一点，50%的概率美联储加息75个基点，90%的概率美联储的决定和表态市场不喜欢。这段时间也没有什么能量和激情再去批评美联储了，就像看到俄乌战争大家都在做最错误的选择，却也无能无力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680875670,"gmtCreate":1654924716291,"gmtModify":1704860853637,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","listText":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","text":"美国人民生活在水深火热之中！我生活在，啥？我还活着？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680875670","repostId":"2242581180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2242581180","pubTimestamp":1654912872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2242581180?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔要对通胀负责？拜登果然“推锅”美联储","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242581180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。</blockquote><p>美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。</p><p>周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。</p><p>数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期美债收益率一个月来首次升破3.10%。美股三大指数连续三日集体收跌，纳指收跌3.52%，标普收跌2.91%，道指收跌2.73%，均为连续两日创下5月18日以来最大收盘跌幅。</p><p>在高企的通胀面前，美国消费者信心崩了。周五公布的数据显示，密歇根大学消费者信心指数跌至1980年以来的最低水平。</p><p>创纪录的汽油价格，再加上居高不下的食品和住房成本，正在加大美国人的生活成本压力，<b>这使得美联储不得不面对更快加息的压力，也给白宫和民主党人带来更多的政治问题，毕竟拜登上任以来，美国通胀才开始“起飞”。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c06e35247a75a5fd811a0e6aa93756\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>（图片来源：Zerohedge）</p><h2>拜登政府：给了美联储足够的空间</h2><p>周五数据公布后，美国总统拜登在一份声明中表示，“今天的报告强调了我为什么把抗击通货膨胀作为我的首要经济任务......虽然看到关键的‘核心’通胀放缓是好事，但它的下降速度没有我们必须看到的那么快、那么剧烈。”</p><p>拜登表示，美国需要“迅速采取更多措施来降低价格”，并呼吁国会通过降低能源、处方药和运输成本的立法。</p><p>在不断累积的民生问题面前，拜登的支持率已经跌至新低，白宫正试图通过不断强调美联储的作用来分散压力。</p><p>早在上个月底，拜登就将抗击通胀的责任“甩锅”给了美联储，在和鲍威尔会面前一天，拜登表示美联储“肩负控制通胀的主要责任”，同时表示，他不会试图影响联储的决策：</p><blockquote>“前任曾贬低过美联储，过去一些总统试图在通胀高企的时期不恰当地影响美联储的决策，我不会那么做。”</blockquote><p>周五数据公布后，这套说辞再现。</p><p>美国国家经济委员会主任布莱恩·迪斯(Brian Deese)周五在媒体上表示，今天的数据突显出总统一直以来的表态——抗击通胀必须成为首要经济任务，<b>“美联储拥有它需要的工具，我们正在给它所需的空间。”</b></p><p>美国白宫经济顾问塞西莉亚·劳斯(CeciliaRouse)也在媒体采访中提到，<b>拜登给了美联储“做他们需要做的事情的空间”。</b></p><p>美联储控制通胀的压力越来越大。</p><p>周五，加息预期飙升至本轮周期的最高水平，交易员预计美联储在6月、7月和9月各加息50个基点，同时随后的降息预期也在飙升。华尔街开始讨论美联储会不会加息75个基点，巴克莱成为首家预计加息75个基点的华尔街大行，甚至预计下周就会这一幅度加息，掉期市场预计7月加息75个基点的概率达50%。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔要对通胀负责？拜登果然“推锅”美联储\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：美国通胀见顶希望破灭，拜登政府迅速表态，给了美联储足够的空间。鲍威尔抗击通胀的压力越来越大了。美国5月CPI再度爆表，一举浇灭了通胀见顶的希望。数据公布后，拜登政府迅速表态，话里话外都将重担甩给了美联储。周五公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比加速增长8.6%，在4月增长略有回落后未能继续增长放缓，反而刷新3月所创的四十年来最高增速，令市场大感意外。数据公布后，美国国债收益率全线拉升，10年期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661699\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42d623bf2f962cffafc93d5db7d45f9c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>6.8今天是上不去了","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$6.8今天是上不去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390563582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":804019722,"gmtCreate":1627911789566,"gmtModify":1627911789566,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","text":"$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 虽然涨的慢 但是一直涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804019722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383892611,"gmtCreate":1612862277533,"gmtModify":1703765926468,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>直接上100吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>直接上100吧","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$直接上100吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383892611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390772877,"gmtCreate":1605876892299,"gmtModify":1703840218446,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$一个电商化妆品120亿美元市值，老虎才10亿？再涨20倍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390772877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3450929526994286","authorId":"3450929526994286","name":"荒野猎人asher","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa167f4724c5d1b17a3b17affaddf88e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3450929526994286","authorIdStr":"3450929526994286"},"content":"哪个电商？","text":"哪个电商？","html":"哪个电商？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839457213,"gmtCreate":1629176744832,"gmtModify":1629176744832,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","listText":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","text":"建议印花税再加30%问题就解决了，没人买了 大家都不亏钱了 皆大欢喜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839457213","repostId":"1101047078","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101047078","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心，不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1629167472,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101047078?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 10:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101047078","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。\n从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。\n\n纳指领涨的背后基于两大原","content":"<p>近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。</p>\n<p>从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83c5243b25706540b1a739dee317fc4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。</p>\n<p>二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。</p>\n<p>两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。</p>\n<p>以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b799e81531ae4c0ca2a363867c7d1b\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。</p>\n<p>于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb29b0bb2a0108470ee967d3ef458f\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同期，纳指100上涨43%。</p>\n<p>纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。</p>\n<p>毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。</p>\n<p>但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc7b1cbcf43810ee7b3b17d8439741a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。</p>\n<p>不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。</p>\n<p>但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。</p>\n<p>于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3efe02cc762a1a1b0af676df1c74f8b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。</p>\n<p>所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a30571a8d2ace1eb7b15e8975487\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f55b3fb1bc4eb2598349a5b9e0bb13\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>，其次是小米，最差的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c78a4d5d5a4f314b4a15c764cf4bdc\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。</p>\n<p>由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。</p>\n<p>权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c47a24bfcc1e6154d82c7a0023c90ab6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。</p>\n<p>近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec8f62e50aaa3a6f1ef8163c031a4de\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。</p>\n<p>拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a59e3b168c20003cde4d5f62b523e16\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。</p>\n<p>但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。</p>\n<p>雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。</p>\n<p>在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p>若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9452409f60df744127ffb8497a18243\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。</p>\n<p>机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。</p>\n<p>目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。</p>\n<p>火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。</p>\n<p>从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>。</p>\n<p>由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。</p>\n<p>从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f78901a3110e1d2c22a87873c40e7e9\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11dcd002b8aa71072105a3a18ea9f801\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。</p>\n<p>未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。</p>\n<p>公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。</p>\n<p>如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。</p>\n<p>在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。</p>\n<p>最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。</p>\n<p>只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股科技指数的大Bug - “快速纳入机制”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-17 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。</p>\n<p>从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83c5243b25706540b1a739dee317fc4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。</p>\n<p>二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。</p>\n<p>两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。</p>\n<p>以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b799e81531ae4c0ca2a363867c7d1b\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。</p>\n<p>于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38eb29b0bb2a0108470ee967d3ef458f\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>同期，纳指100上涨43%。</p>\n<p>纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。</p>\n<p>毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。</p>\n<p>但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebc7b1cbcf43810ee7b3b17d8439741a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。</p>\n<p>不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。</p>\n<p>但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。</p>\n<p>于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3efe02cc762a1a1b0af676df1c74f8b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。</p>\n<p>所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e50a30571a8d2ace1eb7b15e8975487\" tg-width=\"901\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7f55b3fb1bc4eb2598349a5b9e0bb13\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"626\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">明源云</a>，其次是小米，最差的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c78a4d5d5a4f314b4a15c764cf4bdc\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。</p>\n<p>由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。</p>\n<p>权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c47a24bfcc1e6154d82c7a0023c90ab6\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。</p>\n<p>近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ec8f62e50aaa3a6f1ef8163c031a4de\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。</p>\n<p>拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">阿里健康</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a59e3b168c20003cde4d5f62b523e16\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。</p>\n<p>但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。</p>\n<p>雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。</p>\n<p>在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。</p>\n<p>若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9452409f60df744127ffb8497a18243\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。</p>\n<p>机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。</p>\n<p>目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。</p>\n<p>火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。</p>\n<p>从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06618\">京东健康</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>。</p>\n<p>由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。</p>\n<p>从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f78901a3110e1d2c22a87873c40e7e9\" tg-width=\"1077\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11dcd002b8aa71072105a3a18ea9f801\" tg-width=\"1074\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。</p>\n<p>未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。</p>\n<p>公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。</p>\n<p>如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。</p>\n<p>在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。</p>\n<p>最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。</p>\n<p>只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159741":"港股科技","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101047078","content_text":"近半年多以来，在通胀阴云之下，美股崩盘声此起彼落，但仍然无阻其持续创新高。\n从去年谷底至今，纳指表现最好，涨幅达到123%，而标普500和道指涨幅则分别为103%和94%。\n\n纳指领涨的背后基于两大原因，一是疫情催化了大量科技需求，例如远程办公、电商等，亦推动了科技行业的快速发展。\n二是在零息环境下，现金流贴现模型的估值得到大幅提升，而市场对高估值容忍度也更为放松。\n两大因素共振造就了永远的神，促使美股每次回调后都创新高。\n以纳指100为例，估值早已突破了近10年高位，处于35倍PE的水平。\n\n相比下，拥有「港版纳指」之称的恒生科技指数，表现惨不忍睹，不但跑输通涨，更要录得负回报。\n于2020年7月27日，恒生科技指数以6918的基数正式启动，截止8月11日，收报6820点，累计下滑1.4%，从2月高位更是跌了近38%。\n\n同期，纳指100上涨43%。\n纳指100于1985年2月发布，基点为125，现在已经涨到15000点水平。\n毕竟，纳指是全球的顶级资产，包括苹果、微软、亚马逊等，两大指数背后公司质地的不同，也令可比性大大减少。\n但事实上，恒生科技指数的垃圾表现，更多是来自于指数的一个重大Bug，“快速纳入机制”。\n\n不过，先来看两个指数的相似与不同之处，恒生科技指数由30只股票构成，纳指包括所有于美国那斯达克上市的股份，多于1700只，而纳指100则基于前100只。\n不论从市场深度，或是宽度，恒生科技指数与纳指100无疑是相差极远。\n但从占比来说，结构上却是相近。两大指数均是在市值加权的基础上，按相应的指数编制规则计算出来。\n于恒生科技指数中，占比最多为阿里巴巴，近12%，其次是8.8%的小米以及8.2%的舜宇光学，前5大共占44%，前10大占69%。\n\n纳指100方面，占比依次最大是苹果、微软、谷歌，分别为13%、12%、10%，前5大/10大共占50%/62%。\n所以说，两大指数均取决于头10大企业的表现。\n\n具体来看，对比250日的涨跌幅，美股前20名无一下跌，表现最厉害的是特斯拉，涨近160%，而最差的是亚马逊，涨不到10%。\n\n至于恒生科技指数，全部30只，同期有14只上涨，数量接近一半，体现出企业质地的差别，其中表现最好的是明源云，其次是小米，最差的是新东方在线和汽车之家。\n\n当然，这未考虑到期间指数的变动，以权重带来的影响，以新东方在线为例，从一开始便在指数当中，占比为1.57%。\n由于指数没什么变动，以目前占0.11%来计算，下跌86%仅拖累指数1.25%，影响不到90点，虽然是拖累，但算是雷声大雨点小。\n权重最大的那几只，才是最致命的伤害。\n\n从变化来看，阿里巴巴从当初的8.53%占比提升至12.02%，这并不是股价好，只是于今年7月份最为抗跌，占比才从7月初的8.2%大幅提升接近4个百份点。\n近20个交易日，成份股有一半以上跌幅超过10%，包括占比超过5%的腾讯、美团和京东。\n\n从发布至今，幸好有小米和舜宇光学在支撑，两者期内累涨约76%和48%，为指数贡献近10%涨幅。\n拖累最厉害的，依次是阿里巴巴、阿里健康、平安好医生，这不包括被删除的，由于当初加起来比重不到6%，故此忽略不看。\n\n突如其来的政策风险，对指数下滑来说还可以说是非战之罪。\n但核心问题，主要在于互联网行业占比过重，面对政策风险，基本上是一网打尽。\n雪上加霜的是，恒生科技指数的bug直接引入了泡沫，进一步加大波动性。\n在调整频率上，纳指100和恒生科技指数均是在每季度进行定期调整，不同的是，后者增加了“快速纳入机制”。\n若符合条件的新股上市首日市值在现有成份股中排名前十，则将会在该新股上市后的第十个交易日收市后将其纳入指数。\n\n这机制不是恒生指数公司独创，纳斯达克编制部份指数时也会采用，例如丹麦OMX哥本哈根20指数、瑞典OMX斯德哥尔摩30指数等。\n机制的出发点在于能更好地反映市场的变化，只是理想很丰满，现实却很骨感。\n目前股市已处于一级市场疯子定价，二级市场傻子接盘的时代。\n火热的新股估值往往充满泡沫，更甚的是，随着港股逐步A股化，以及新股打着稀缺性的旗号，吸引大量散户进场，促使泡沫进一步巨大化，也令恒生科技指数成为了巨大的牺牲品。\n从发布至今，恒生科技指数一共出现了四次快速纳入，分别是京东健康、快手、百度以及哔哩哔哩。\n由于快速纳入的重点在于市值够大，变相来说公司被纳入后，占比将会不轻，大一点的波动对指数也会带来明显的影响。\n从各别股票纳入至今，跌幅均达到20%以上，京东健康跌了56%，市值从5800亿跌至2600亿。\n\n快手跌了76%，市值从14900亿跌至3500亿。\n\n换算下来，两者共拖累指数下跌逾7%，可以说是港股指数历史上的最大惨剧之一。\n未来如果再有数千亿以上的企业来港上市，这惨剧可能会再一次发生，而下一个可能是字节跳动。\n公司去年12月的投后估值为1800亿美元，另根据4月份报导，外界估计估值已逾4000亿美元，相当于31200亿港元，仅次于腾讯和阿里四万多亿的水平，意味这潜在惨剧的规模将会更为巨大。\n如果一个投资者，为了分享企业科技进步带来增值的机会，因而配置了恒生科技指数的ETF，最终只会沦为被收割的韭菜。\n在快速纳入机制下，被动资金成为了新股泡沫的接盘者，某程度如以前的MSCI指数一样。\n最后，目前巨额机构资金囤集一级市场，疯狂吞噬新股上市后二级市场的溢价，贪婪吸食散户的利益，令股市的投资功能丧失殆尽。\n只希望港股的指数能尽快改革，避免沦为收割者的帮凶。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321177805,"gmtCreate":1615418842707,"gmtModify":1703488721265,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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是不是中概股？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604646845","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387507929,"gmtCreate":1613752455961,"gmtModify":1613752455961,"author":{"id":"3517046115580762","authorId":"3517046115580762","name":"人是鳝变得","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8358bde223aa5ecc667f1b105900793e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517046115580762","authorIdStr":"3517046115580762"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 还有只是一个官员说的又不是局长说的","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a> 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 还有只是一个官员说的又不是局长说的","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 只是研究又不是放开了 研究T0几年了也没见放开 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