卢云磊的个人主页 - 老虎社区

卢云磊

卢云磊

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2023-06-15

1Q1钱了~

如期暂停加息但放鹰！美联储暗示还会再加两次，预计今年不会衰退

2019-08-24

任务...

2019-08-22

任务入户也不给个v广田股份

2019-08-20

$万达体育(WSG)$ 暴跌吧

2019-08-16

辜负你不尴干活吧让哥哥

2019-08-15

呵呵呵呵哒哒哒

2019-08-14

难受啊什么时间贸易战能结束

2019-08-10

$加利西亚金融(GGAL)$ 💰

2019-07-26

垃圾公司软件不但卡而且不配合出金出金被拒要15-20个工作日不知道什么逻辑

2019-07-24

$金凰珠宝(KGJI)$ 无量上涨

2019-07-24

$波音(BA)$ 牛逼

2019-07-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 2元见

2019-07-16

求一波赞谢谢

2019-07-15

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 2元股

2019-07-09

$高通(QCOM)$ 60元

2019-07-08

小弟服气没有一天不跌的

2019-07-08

小弟服气没有一天不跌的

2019-07-08

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 求赞

2019-07-08

$小赢科技(XYF)$被套了[流泪] 嘤嘤嘤嘤

2019-07-08

$蔚来(NIO)$ 被套了嘤嘤嘤嘤

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07:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如期暂停加息但放鹰！美联储暗示还会再加两次，预计今年不会衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173690795","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：美联储称暂停加息让联储能评估未来信息及其影响，重申银行系统有韧性、信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定。点阵图显示，三分之二联储官员预计今年利率高于5.5%、意味着至少两次加息25基点。联储官员将利率","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：美联储称暂停加息让联储能评估未来信息及其影响，重申银行系统有韧性、信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定。点阵图显示，三分之二联储官员预计今年利率高于5.5%、意味着至少两次加息25基点。联储官员将利率峰值的预期中位值提高50个基点至5.6%，将今年GDP增速预期上调一倍多至1%，下调今明后年失业率预期，上调今年核心PCE通胀预期。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如市场所料，美联储终于停下了加息的脚步，但释放了鹰派信号：在点阵图和经济展望中暗示，今年可能还要有两次加息；联储提高了利率峰值预期，高于大部分经济学家和投资者预计的水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间6月14日周三，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.0%至5.25%不变，让这一政策利率保持在十六年来最高水平。和去年7月以来的前七次会议一样，本次利率决策得到FOMC投票委员全票赞成。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是美联储本轮加息周期中首次暂停行动。自去年3月以来，美联储截至今年5月已连续十次会议决定加息、连续三次会后宣布加息25个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次美联储的利率决定符合市场共识预期。本周二公布美国5月CPI同比增速超预期放缓、创两年多最低增速后，市场对本周联储暂停加息的预期概率蹿升至90%以上。</p><p>CPI公布后，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos周二发文称，5月整体通胀放缓，但潜在价格压力还坚挺，尽管本周美联储料将按兵不动，对通胀的担忧仍可能促使联储官员暗示准备今年内重启加息，他们可能在经济展望中上调利率预期，借此强调加息预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本周三美联储的决议公布后，债市交易者对今年内联储降息的预期降温。互换合约定价显示，交易者目前预计，今年12月的政策利率约为5.23%，较9月达到的峰值5.32%低约9个基点，而周三稍早、美联储公布决议前的12月预期利率还比预期峰值低约15个基点。</p><h2>暂停加息让美联储能评估未来信息及其影响 重申如有需要准备调整政策立场</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相比5月的上次会议声明，本次美联储会后决议声明最大的变动是，在利率前瞻指引方面增加一句话：</p><blockquote>此次会议保持（利率）目标范围不变，让（FOMC）委员会能评估更多的信息，及其对货币政策的影响。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">删掉了3月和5月会后声明所说的“委员会将密切关注未来发布的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次对5月提到的判断未来货币紧缩说辞略有调整。5月说：“为判断让通胀随着时间推移回到2%的额外政策紧缩可能适合的程度，（FOMC）委员会将考虑到，货币政策的累积紧缩、货币政策影响经济活动和通胀的滞后性，以及经济和金融形势变化。” 本次说，“为判断可能适合让通胀随着时间推移回到2%的额外政策紧缩程度”，FOMC将有这些考虑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，声明重申了3月上次声明新增的表述：“委员会将密切关注未来发布的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响”。本次声明继续重申，若有风险可能妨碍美联储达到通胀目标，如有需要、准备适当调整政策立场，以及重申去年6月声明新增的“强烈承诺将让通胀率回落至2%这一目标。”</p><h2>点阵图显示三分之二联储官员预计今年至少两次加息25基点 利率峰值预期上调50基点</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，相比3月上次公布的点阵图，本次联储决策者对利率峰值的预期更高，意味着紧缩力度更大、更偏鹰派。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7874278104178f6756e046e279efc8d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"327\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在提供利率预测的18名联储官员中，本次有两人预计今年末利率在5.0%到5.25%范围内的当前水平，共16人预计，到今年末利率高于5.25%。而3月公布的点阵图中，只有七人预计高于5.25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3月点阵图中，只有七名联储官员预计今年利率会高于5.5%，而本次有12人都这样预测，在总人数中占三分之二、占比约67%。在这12人中，有九人预计利率在5.5%到5.75%，即预计还将有两次25个基点的加息。另外三人预计的加息次数更多，其中，两人预计利率在5.75%到6.0%之间，有一人甚至预计利率高于6.0%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3月的点阵图中，只有一人预计今年利率在5.75%到6.0%，三人预计在5.25%到5.5%，三人预计在5.5%到5.75%，无人预计超过6.0%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5d56eaa2db8600bb2de0ce9dad9de73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次会后公布的经济展望中，美联储官员全线上调了今明后三年的利率预期中位值，其中，利率预期在今年的峰值较上次预测水平提高了50个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从利率峰值和点阵图的多数官员预期水平看，美联储决策者在暗示，即使本周并未再加息，今年内联储也将重启加息，若一次加息25个基点，将还有两次加息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">联储官员对今年及之后的利率预测中位值水平如下：</p><ul><li><p>2023年底的联邦基金利率为5.6%，今年3月公布的预期为5.1%。</p></li><li><p>2024年底的联邦基金利率为4.6%，较3月预计的4.3%提高30个基点。</p></li><li><p>2025年底的联邦基金利率为3.4%，较3月预期的3.1%也提高30个基点。</p></li><li><p>预计此后长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，持平3月预期。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91b7b4912558924a45f19887469eba2c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><h2>今年GDP增速预期上调一倍多至1% 下调三年失业率预期 上调今年核心PCE通胀预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次公布的更新后经济展望显示，没有一名美联储官员预计今年美国会陷入经济衰退。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/118fd0b21db4dd24399064ba071f9320\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">经济展望中，美联储官员大幅上调了今年的美国GDP增长预期、小幅下调明后两年的GDP预期，下调今明后三年的失业率预期，同时小幅下调今年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀预期，上调今年的核心PCE通胀预期：</p><ul><li><p>预计2023年GDP增长1.0%，是3月预计增速0.4%的两倍多，2024年的GDP预期增速为1.1%，略低于3月预计的增速1.2%，2025年的增速预期从3月预期的1.9%下调至1.8%，更长期预期增速持平3月，仍为1.8%。</p></li><li><p>2023年的失业率预期从3月预计的4.5%下调至4.1%，2024年和2025年的预期均从4.6%下调至4.5%，更长期失业率预期持平3月，仍为4.0%。</p></li><li><p>2023年的PCE通胀率预期从3月预计的3.3%下调至3.2%，2024年和2025年的预期均持平3月，分别为2.5%和2.1%，更长期预期也和3月一样，为2.0%。</p></li><li><p>2023年核心PCE预期从3月预计的3.6%上调至3.9%，2024年的预期持平3月，仍为2.6%，2025年的预期从2.1%上调至2.2%。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce7a3e402d3f1559c7c71ce50087b13\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"252\"/></p><h2>继续重申银行系统有韧性、继续按此前路线缩表 重申信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次声明对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>系统的评价和5月的上次声明完全一样，继续重申3月的说辞“美国银行体系健全且有韧性”，重申5月所说的：“对家庭和企业更为收紧的信用环境可能对经济活动、招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时， 本次声明继续重申去年5月声明追加的措辞，即FOMC“仍高度关注通胀风险”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在评价经济时，本次声明保留了5月的说辞“近几个月就业增长强劲，失业率保持低位。通胀保持高企。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">略有修改之处是，本次声明称：“最近的指标显示，经济活动继续以温和的步伐扩张”，而5月声明说：“第一季度，经济活动以温和的步伐扩张”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年5月美联储公布了缩减资产负债表（缩表）的路线，从6月1日起减少债券持仓，最初每月最多减少300亿美元美国国债、175亿美元机构抵押支持证券（MBS），三个月后月度减持最高规模提升一倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">和前八次会议一样，本次会议的声明未重申上述路线，而是说，将继续按此前公布的缩表路线减持国债、机构债和机构MBS。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如期暂停加息但放鹰！美联储暗示还会再加两次，预计今年不会衰退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如期暂停加息但放鹰！美联储暗示还会再加两次，预计今年不会衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-15 07:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691152><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：美联储称暂停加息让联储能评估未来信息及其影响，重申银行系统有韧性、信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定。点阵图显示，三分之二联储官员预计今年利率高于5.5%、意味着至少两次加息25基点。联储官员将利率峰值的预期中位值提高50个基点至5.6%，将今年GDP增速预期上调一倍多至1%，下调今明后年失业率预期，上调今年核心PCE通胀预期。如市场所料，美联储终于停下了加息的脚步，但释放了鹰派信号：在点阵图和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691152\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691152","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173690795","content_text":"摘要：美联储称暂停加息让联储能评估未来信息及其影响，重申银行系统有韧性、信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定。点阵图显示，三分之二联储官员预计今年利率高于5.5%、意味着至少两次加息25基点。联储官员将利率峰值的预期中位值提高50个基点至5.6%，将今年GDP增速预期上调一倍多至1%，下调今明后年失业率预期，上调今年核心PCE通胀预期。如市场所料，美联储终于停下了加息的脚步，但释放了鹰派信号：在点阵图和经济展望中暗示，今年可能还要有两次加息；联储提高了利率峰值预期，高于大部分经济学家和投资者预计的水平。美东时间6月14日周三，美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后宣布，将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在5.0%至5.25%不变，让这一政策利率保持在十六年来最高水平。和去年7月以来的前七次会议一样，本次利率决策得到FOMC投票委员全票赞成。这是美联储本轮加息周期中首次暂停行动。自去年3月以来，美联储截至今年5月已连续十次会议决定加息、连续三次会后宣布加息25个基点。本次美联储的利率决定符合市场共识预期。本周二公布美国5月CPI同比增速超预期放缓、创两年多最低增速后，市场对本周联储暂停加息的预期概率蹿升至90%以上。CPI公布后，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos周二发文称，5月整体通胀放缓，但潜在价格压力还坚挺，尽管本周美联储料将按兵不动，对通胀的担忧仍可能促使联储官员暗示准备今年内重启加息，他们可能在经济展望中上调利率预期，借此强调加息预期。本周三美联储的决议公布后，债市交易者对今年内联储降息的预期降温。互换合约定价显示，交易者目前预计，今年12月的政策利率约为5.23%，较9月达到的峰值5.32%低约9个基点，而周三稍早、美联储公布决议前的12月预期利率还比预期峰值低约15个基点。暂停加息让美联储能评估未来信息及其影响 重申如有需要准备调整政策立场相比5月的上次会议声明，本次美联储会后决议声明最大的变动是，在利率前瞻指引方面增加一句话：此次会议保持（利率）目标范围不变，让（FOMC）委员会能评估更多的信息，及其对货币政策的影响。删掉了3月和5月会后声明所说的“委员会将密切关注未来发布的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响”。本次对5月提到的判断未来货币紧缩说辞略有调整。5月说：“为判断让通胀随着时间推移回到2%的额外政策紧缩可能适合的程度，（FOMC）委员会将考虑到，货币政策的累积紧缩、货币政策影响经济活动和通胀的滞后性，以及经济和金融形势变化。” 本次说，“为判断可能适合让通胀随着时间推移回到2%的额外政策紧缩程度”，FOMC将有这些考虑。同时，声明重申了3月上次声明新增的表述：“委员会将密切关注未来发布的信息，并评估其对货币政策的影响”。本次声明继续重申，若有风险可能妨碍美联储达到通胀目标，如有需要、准备适当调整政策立场，以及重申去年6月声明新增的“强烈承诺将让通胀率回落至2%这一目标。”点阵图显示三分之二联储官员预计今年至少两次加息25基点 利率峰值预期上调50基点本次会后公布的美联储官员预期未来利率水平点阵图显示，相比3月上次公布的点阵图，本次联储决策者对利率峰值的预期更高，意味着紧缩力度更大、更偏鹰派。在提供利率预测的18名联储官员中，本次有两人预计今年末利率在5.0%到5.25%范围内的当前水平，共16人预计，到今年末利率高于5.25%。而3月公布的点阵图中，只有七人预计高于5.25%。3月点阵图中，只有七名联储官员预计今年利率会高于5.5%，而本次有12人都这样预测，在总人数中占三分之二、占比约67%。在这12人中，有九人预计利率在5.5%到5.75%，即预计还将有两次25个基点的加息。另外三人预计的加息次数更多，其中，两人预计利率在5.75%到6.0%之间，有一人甚至预计利率高于6.0%。3月的点阵图中，只有一人预计今年利率在5.75%到6.0%，三人预计在5.25%到5.5%，三人预计在5.5%到5.75%，无人预计超过6.0%。本次会后公布的经济展望中，美联储官员全线上调了今明后三年的利率预期中位值，其中，利率预期在今年的峰值较上次预测水平提高了50个基点。从利率峰值和点阵图的多数官员预期水平看，美联储决策者在暗示，即使本周并未再加息，今年内联储也将重启加息，若一次加息25个基点，将还有两次加息。联储官员对今年及之后的利率预测中位值水平如下：2023年底的联邦基金利率为5.6%，今年3月公布的预期为5.1%。2024年底的联邦基金利率为4.6%，较3月预计的4.3%提高30个基点。2025年底的联邦基金利率为3.4%，较3月预期的3.1%也提高30个基点。预计此后长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，持平3月预期。今年GDP增速预期上调一倍多至1% 下调三年失业率预期 上调今年核心PCE通胀预期本次公布的更新后经济展望显示，没有一名美联储官员预计今年美国会陷入经济衰退。经济展望中，美联储官员大幅上调了今年的美国GDP增长预期、小幅下调明后两年的GDP预期，下调今明后三年的失业率预期，同时小幅下调今年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀预期，上调今年的核心PCE通胀预期：预计2023年GDP增长1.0%，是3月预计增速0.4%的两倍多，2024年的GDP预期增速为1.1%，略低于3月预计的增速1.2%，2025年的增速预期从3月预期的1.9%下调至1.8%，更长期预期增速持平3月，仍为1.8%。2023年的失业率预期从3月预计的4.5%下调至4.1%，2024年和2025年的预期均从4.6%下调至4.5%，更长期失业率预期持平3月，仍为4.0%。2023年的PCE通胀率预期从3月预计的3.3%下调至3.2%，2024年和2025年的预期均持平3月，分别为2.5%和2.1%，更长期预期也和3月一样，为2.0%。2023年核心PCE预期从3月预计的3.6%上调至3.9%，2024年的预期持平3月，仍为2.6%，2025年的预期从2.1%上调至2.2%。继续重申银行系统有韧性、继续按此前路线缩表 重申信用环境收紧对通胀的影响不确定本次声明对美国银行系统的评价和5月的上次声明完全一样，继续重申3月的说辞“美国银行体系健全且有韧性”，重申5月所说的：“对家庭和企业更为收紧的信用环境可能对经济活动、招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。”同时， 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