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宝武集团
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IP属地:安徽
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宝武集团
2023-02-07
$拓日新能(002218)$
宝武集团
2021-09-04
可笑的叮咚业绩一般
宝武集团
2021-06-19
小心美国市场风险大,世界风险有的波动。
抱歉,原内容已删除
宝武集团
2021-04-26
这并不是谁都是龙头,龙头就是一个字,伯克希尔,真龙头。国内的茅台,香港的腾讯。
散户概念股盘中拉升,这回龙头换成了维视图像
宝武集团
2021-04-26
这是哪?他的系统和他的配件在四年前就有问题,一直没有处理好,到现在还是这样,你拖我拖拖到最后自自己把自己形象全丢了
抱歉,原内容已删除
宝武集团
2021-04-26
特斯拉应该调整模式,把整个汽车的,动力重新改装一下,以中国的国产嗯,能换掉美国的智能,更改国内的所有配件,包括系统在内,特斯拉就完全变成国产化中国画,这是啦,才有真正的春天,那就是中国智能汽车
抱歉,原内容已删除
宝武集团
2021-04-26
长高,长高注意风险,希望不要盲目去猜测或追涨,希望大家注意投资方向,注意方向
铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平,有色金属板块走高
宝武集团
2021-04-09
纸涨价,对中国人民币重大利好。
@巴伦周刊:腾讯又遭减持,三年前大回撤噩梦不会重演
宝武集团
2021-03-10
买买
小米午后快速下挫转跌,早盘最多涨近4%
宝武集团
2021-03-03
$秋田微(300939)$
[财迷]
宝武集团
2021-02-27
[财迷] 中国牛,香港老虎最牛。
宝武集团
2021-01-19
\
开盘:美股集体高开,新能源汽车板块强势领涨
宝武集团
2021-01-05
落袋为安,在进场。
宝武集团
2020-11-25
回调价,也要盘点振震下跌。变盘变化越来越好。稳步走势,明年回稳上行。
宝武集团
2020-09-11
内部笑了,管理者好用,管理者差就走人。企业也一样。
@小虎AV: 【瑞幸董事长陆正耀回应被要求退市:深感失望和遗憾】5月20日凌晨,瑞幸咖啡董事长陆正耀发表个人声明称,纳斯达克不等最终调查结果就要求公司退市,出乎意料,对此个人深感失望和遗憾。他坚信瑞幸咖啡的商业模式和商业逻辑。瑞幸如果退市,会倾尽全力维持门店运营[眼眼] 今天瑞幸会复牌,各位股东把握时机。。。。
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
宝武集团
2020-08-31
巴老爷子,我也很佩服的人。
赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特赢在哪里?
宝武集团
2020-08-29
$美国钢铁(X)$
快了,在等3个月有沒有站上牛市路口。
宝武集团
2020-08-29
$Salesforce(CRM)$
趋势线强大,好
宝武集团
2020-08-29
$沃尔玛(WMT)$
趋势亮眼,点赞
宝武集团
2020-08-29
$英特尔(INTC)$
趋势线好
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>周一,激光雷达概念股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">维视图像</a>盘中持续走高,最高涨超30%,此前该股成为WSB论坛热点话题。其他WSB热门股票跟涨,截至发稿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>涨近10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">高斯电子</a>涨5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>涨2.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e61174ebc834e63807f49ff7583e77f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd7f893ff5b4e788a82524f9b1189f8","relate_stocks":{"MVIS":"维视图像","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","KOSS":"高斯电子"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170028644","content_text":"周一,激光雷达概念股维视图像盘中持续走高,最高涨超30%,此前该股成为WSB论坛热点话题。其他WSB热门股票跟涨,截至发稿,AMC院线涨近10%,高斯电子涨5%,游戏驿站涨2.4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374264802,"gmtCreate":1619449444606,"gmtModify":1619449444606,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这是哪?他的系统和他的配件在四年前就有问题,一直没有处理好,到现在还是这样,你拖我拖拖到最后自自己把自己形象全丢了","listText":"这是哪?他的系统和他的配件在四年前就有问题,一直没有处理好,到现在还是这样,你拖我拖拖到最后自自己把自己形象全丢了","text":"这是哪?他的系统和他的配件在四年前就有问题,一直没有处理好,到现在还是这样,你拖我拖拖到最后自自己把自己形象全丢了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374264802","repostId":"1188284210","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374265868,"gmtCreate":1619449369854,"gmtModify":1619449369854,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉应该调整模式,把整个汽车的,动力重新改装一下,以中国的国产嗯,能换掉美国的智能,更改国内的所有配件,包括系统在内,特斯拉就完全变成国产化中国画,这是啦,才有真正的春天,那就是中国智能汽车","listText":"特斯拉应该调整模式,把整个汽车的,动力重新改装一下,以中国的国产嗯,能换掉美国的智能,更改国内的所有配件,包括系统在内,特斯拉就完全变成国产化中国画,这是啦,才有真正的春天,那就是中国智能汽车","text":"特斯拉应该调整模式,把整个汽车的,动力重新改装一下,以中国的国产嗯,能换掉美国的智能,更改国内的所有配件,包括系统在内,特斯拉就完全变成国产化中国画,这是啦,才有真正的春天,那就是中国智能汽车","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374265868","repostId":"1188284210","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":374287831,"gmtCreate":1619448838823,"gmtModify":1619448838823,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"长高,长高注意风险,希望不要盲目去猜测或追涨,希望大家注意投资方向,注意方向","listText":"长高,长高注意风险,希望不要盲目去猜测或追涨,希望大家注意投资方向,注意方向","text":"长高,长高注意风险,希望不要盲目去猜测或追涨,希望大家注意投资方向,注意方向","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374287831","repostId":"1112124246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112124246","pubTimestamp":1619446921,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112124246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 22:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平,有色金属板块走高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112124246","media":"智通财经","summary":"高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨。","content":"<p>4月26日(周一),有色金属板块盘中走高,截至发稿,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCX\">麦克莫兰铜金</a>涨超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>涨超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRQ\">Turquoise Hill Resources</a>涨超4%,美国雅宝公司涨超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4747a8a90284928bc8ab8f9768b760f4\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此前全球铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平,伦铜一度升至9700美元/吨。包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等机构认为,考虑到铜在绿色能源转型中的重要作用,各国的气候目标将使本轮铜价反弹成为更长维度铜价上涨的开始。</p><p>高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨,较两周前其重申的12个月铜目标价上调500美元,升幅将近4.8%。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月26日(周一),有色金属板块盘中走高,截至发稿,麦克莫兰铜金涨超6%,美国铝业涨超5%,Turquoise Hill Resources涨超4%,美国雅宝公司涨超3%。此前全球铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平,伦铜一度升至9700美元/吨。包括高盛等机构认为,考虑到铜在绿色能源转型中的重要作用,各国的气候目标将使本轮铜价反弹成为更长维度铜价上涨的开始。高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eeb9a4d452d8568bcc6a2558535ad160","relate_stocks":{"FCX":"麦克莫兰铜金","AA":"美国铝业"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/458639.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1112124246","content_text":"4月26日(周一),有色金属板块盘中走高,截至发稿,麦克莫兰铜金涨超6%,美国铝业涨超5%,Turquoise Hill Resources涨超4%,美国雅宝公司涨超3%。此前全球铜价飙升至十年来的最高水平,伦铜一度升至9700美元/吨。包括高盛等机构认为,考虑到铜在绿色能源转型中的重要作用,各国的气候目标将使本轮铜价反弹成为更长维度铜价上涨的开始。高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨,较两周前其重申的12个月铜目标价上调500美元,升幅将近4.8%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348882994,"gmtCreate":1617912187318,"gmtModify":1617912187318,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"纸涨价,对中国人民币重大利好。","listText":"纸涨价,对中国人民币重大利好。","text":"纸涨价,对中国人民币重大利好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348882994","repostId":"348908318","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":348908318,"gmtCreate":1617873720000,"gmtModify":1617875949790,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"巴伦周刊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a88e8bd37e8c66a6dfdca78e1466369","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524030243818067","authorIdStr":"3524030243818067"},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯又遭减持,三年前大回撤噩梦不会重演","htmlText":"投资者将很难想象,在基本面不存在重大变故的情况下,腾讯的估值水平会调整至大幅低于同业的位置。 Prosus NV减持2% 腾讯控股(0700.HK)股份的消息引发了对后者股价的担忧。美东时间周三(4月7日),腾讯ADR下跌7.54%。4月8日,腾讯港股迎来1486.82亿港元的日内成交额,创下历史新高,但股价至收盘时却仅下跌了1.51%。 2018年时,Prosus亦曾减持相同比例的腾讯股票。与当时的表态相似,Prosus再次承诺至少未来三年内不再出售任何腾讯股票。正常而言,附带期限的不减持承诺代表了大股东相当水平的信心。然而,似曾相识的场景带来了某种“轮回感”,令市场不禁开始想象腾讯股价大幅回撤的可能。三年前,腾讯同样面临监管风险,版号发放暂停与青少年防沉迷等问题使其游戏业务经历重创。那一次,腾讯股价自高位累计下跌了接近50%。 但这种今昔对比很可能止于联想。一方面,市场此前先行消化了相当部分的政策利空因素;受反垄断和金融科技监管收紧的影响,腾讯股价已较今年2月的最高点下跌了接近20%。另一方面,人们尚未看到此次的跌幅具体如何,已有较多市场声音开始展望其股价的反弹。 在基本面维度,今天的腾讯并非2018年的腾讯。受益于夺目的游戏和支付业务,2020年是这家巨头的盈利新高峰。财报显示,2020年全年,腾讯实现营收4820.64亿元,同比增长28%;实现归母净利润1598.47亿元,同比增长71%,非国际会计准则下归属于公司股东净利润1227.42亿元,同比增长30%。有市场分析人士指出,此次减持的动机的确主要来自Prosus内部,而不是基于对监管因素或腾讯经营情况的担忧。 1 三年前的回撤很难重现 2018年3月,Prosus减持2%的腾讯股份,持股比例从33.2%降至了31.2%。随后大约八个月时间里,腾讯股价自472港元跌至250港元,回撤幅度接近50%。然而,不应忽视","listText":"投资者将很难想象,在基本面不存在重大变故的情况下,腾讯的估值水平会调整至大幅低于同业的位置。 Prosus NV减持2% 腾讯控股(0700.HK)股份的消息引发了对后者股价的担忧。美东时间周三(4月7日),腾讯ADR下跌7.54%。4月8日,腾讯港股迎来1486.82亿港元的日内成交额,创下历史新高,但股价至收盘时却仅下跌了1.51%。 2018年时,Prosus亦曾减持相同比例的腾讯股票。与当时的表态相似,Prosus再次承诺至少未来三年内不再出售任何腾讯股票。正常而言,附带期限的不减持承诺代表了大股东相当水平的信心。然而,似曾相识的场景带来了某种“轮回感”,令市场不禁开始想象腾讯股价大幅回撤的可能。三年前,腾讯同样面临监管风险,版号发放暂停与青少年防沉迷等问题使其游戏业务经历重创。那一次,腾讯股价自高位累计下跌了接近50%。 但这种今昔对比很可能止于联想。一方面,市场此前先行消化了相当部分的政策利空因素;受反垄断和金融科技监管收紧的影响,腾讯股价已较今年2月的最高点下跌了接近20%。另一方面,人们尚未看到此次的跌幅具体如何,已有较多市场声音开始展望其股价的反弹。 在基本面维度,今天的腾讯并非2018年的腾讯。受益于夺目的游戏和支付业务,2020年是这家巨头的盈利新高峰。财报显示,2020年全年,腾讯实现营收4820.64亿元,同比增长28%;实现归母净利润1598.47亿元,同比增长71%,非国际会计准则下归属于公司股东净利润1227.42亿元,同比增长30%。有市场分析人士指出,此次减持的动机的确主要来自Prosus内部,而不是基于对监管因素或腾讯经营情况的担忧。 1 三年前的回撤很难重现 2018年3月,Prosus减持2%的腾讯股份,持股比例从33.2%降至了31.2%。随后大约八个月时间里,腾讯股价自472港元跌至250港元,回撤幅度接近50%。然而,不应忽视","text":"投资者将很难想象,在基本面不存在重大变故的情况下,腾讯的估值水平会调整至大幅低于同业的位置。 Prosus NV减持2% 腾讯控股(0700.HK)股份的消息引发了对后者股价的担忧。美东时间周三(4月7日),腾讯ADR下跌7.54%。4月8日,腾讯港股迎来1486.82亿港元的日内成交额,创下历史新高,但股价至收盘时却仅下跌了1.51%。 2018年时,Prosus亦曾减持相同比例的腾讯股票。与当时的表态相似,Prosus再次承诺至少未来三年内不再出售任何腾讯股票。正常而言,附带期限的不减持承诺代表了大股东相当水平的信心。然而,似曾相识的场景带来了某种“轮回感”,令市场不禁开始想象腾讯股价大幅回撤的可能。三年前,腾讯同样面临监管风险,版号发放暂停与青少年防沉迷等问题使其游戏业务经历重创。那一次,腾讯股价自高位累计下跌了接近50%。 但这种今昔对比很可能止于联想。一方面,市场此前先行消化了相当部分的政策利空因素;受反垄断和金融科技监管收紧的影响,腾讯股价已较今年2月的最高点下跌了接近20%。另一方面,人们尚未看到此次的跌幅具体如何,已有较多市场声音开始展望其股价的反弹。 在基本面维度,今天的腾讯并非2018年的腾讯。受益于夺目的游戏和支付业务,2020年是这家巨头的盈利新高峰。财报显示,2020年全年,腾讯实现营收4820.64亿元,同比增长28%;实现归母净利润1598.47亿元,同比增长71%,非国际会计准则下归属于公司股东净利润1227.42亿元,同比增长30%。有市场分析人士指出,此次减持的动机的确主要来自Prosus内部,而不是基于对监管因素或腾讯经营情况的担忧。 1 三年前的回撤很难重现 2018年3月,Prosus减持2%的腾讯股份,持股比例从33.2%降至了31.2%。随后大约八个月时间里,腾讯股价自472港元跌至250港元,回撤幅度接近50%。然而,不应忽视","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6e527cab6549a980abd37ee315690f","width":"1080","height":"720"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9993499921d426bb1aa11d10a3359ec","width":"297","height":"273"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40105fa6cce74ff78831e7c4aae5bfeb","width":"830","height":"295"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348908318","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323583861,"gmtCreate":1615355434953,"gmtModify":1703487805158,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买买","listText":"买买","text":"买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323583861","repostId":"1113945761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113945761","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1615354129,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113945761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-10 13:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米午后快速下挫转跌,早盘最多涨近4%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113945761","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"小米集团午后下挫,现转跌,早盘最多涨近4%。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团</a>午后下挫,现转跌,早盘最多涨近4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1ca75e5c29e02266b5be5f62800056\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米午后快速下挫转跌,早盘最多涨近4%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团</a>午后下挫,现转跌,早盘最多涨近4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1ca75e5c29e02266b5be5f62800056\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300939\">$秋田微(300939)$</a>[财迷]","text":"$秋田微(300939)$[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364010940","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366352536,"gmtCreate":1614399252325,"gmtModify":1703477297733,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] 中国牛,香港老虎最牛。","listText":"[财迷] 中国牛,香港老虎最牛。","text":"[财迷] 中国牛,香港老虎最牛。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366352536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337315376,"gmtCreate":1611067678795,"gmtModify":1703747797582,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\\","listText":"\\","text":"\\","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337315376","repostId":"1157408279","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157408279","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1611066661,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157408279?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-19 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘:美股集体高开,新能源汽车板块强势领涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157408279","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月19日,美股集体高开,道琼斯指数指数开盘上涨265.72点,涨幅0.86%,报31079.98点;标普500指数指数开盘上涨31.13点,涨幅0.83%,报3799.38点;纳斯达克综合指数指数上","content":"<p>1月19日,美股集体高开,道琼斯指数指数开盘上涨265.72点,涨幅0.86%,报31079.98点;标普500指数指数开盘上涨31.13点,涨幅0.83%,报3799.38点;纳斯达克综合指数指数上涨138.88点,涨幅1.07%,报13137.38点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c62c39193d63275cf16bca45613750ec\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">中概股造车新势力上涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4.3%,此前发布beta版高速自主导航驾驶技术功能。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨7.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨0.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>自动驾驶部门Cruise将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>合作推动无人驾驶汽车商业化。</p><p>菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车集团与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQ9.UK\">标致</a>雪铁龙集团合并后的Stellantis普通股今日正式开始在纽交所交易,开涨近13%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨近5%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>将百度目标价由183美元上调近60%至292美元,维持“买入”评级。此外,威马汽车宣布,与百度Apollo共同研发的威马W6在威马湖北基地下线,将于今年上半年交付。据悉,威马W6可通过百度Apollo云端的百万级TOPS算力实现特定场景无人驾驶。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>涨超13%,上周累计涨幅超过100%。此前,Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter重申对游戏驿站的“中性”评级,目标价16美元。该分析师认为,尽管游戏驿站处于有利地位,并将成为新主机发布的主要受益者,但是其前景仍不明朗。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>涨超9%,此前,有媒体报道称,黑莓公司近日已经向华为出售了90项智能手机技术专利。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘:美股集体高开,新能源汽车板块强势领涨</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘:美股集体高开,新能源汽车板块强势领涨\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-01-19 22:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>1月19日,美股集体高开,道琼斯指数指数开盘上涨265.72点,涨幅0.86%,报31079.98点;标普500指数指数开盘上涨31.13点,涨幅0.83%,报3799.38点;纳斯达克综合指数指数上涨138.88点,涨幅1.07%,报13137.38点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c62c39193d63275cf16bca45613750ec\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\">中概股造车新势力上涨,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超4.3%,此前发布beta版高速自主导航驾驶技术功能。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>涨超3%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>涨7.3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>涨0.65%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>自动驾驶部门Cruise将与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>合作推动无人驾驶汽车商业化。</p><p>菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车集团与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQ9.UK\">标致</a>雪铁龙集团合并后的Stellantis普通股今日正式开始在纽交所交易,开涨近13%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨近5%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>将百度目标价由183美元上调近60%至292美元,维持“买入”评级。此外,威马汽车宣布,与百度Apollo共同研发的威马W6在威马湖北基地下线,将于今年上半年交付。据悉,威马W6可通过百度Apollo云端的百万级TOPS算力实现特定场景无人驾驶。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>涨超13%,上周累计涨幅超过100%。此前,Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter重申对游戏驿站的“中性”评级,目标价16美元。该分析师认为,尽管游戏驿站处于有利地位,并将成为新主机发布的主要受益者,但是其前景仍不明朗。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a>涨超9%,此前,有媒体报道称,黑莓公司近日已经向华为出售了90项智能手机技术专利。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157408279","content_text":"1月19日,美股集体高开,道琼斯指数指数开盘上涨265.72点,涨幅0.86%,报31079.98点;标普500指数指数开盘上涨31.13点,涨幅0.83%,报3799.38点;纳斯达克综合指数指数上涨138.88点,涨幅1.07%,报13137.38点。中概股造车新势力上涨,小鹏汽车涨超4.3%,此前发布beta版高速自主导航驾驶技术功能。理想汽车、蔚来涨超3%。通用汽车涨7.3%,微软涨0.65%,通用汽车自动驾驶部门Cruise将与微软合作推动无人驾驶汽车商业化。菲亚特克莱斯勒汽车集团与标致雪铁龙集团合并后的Stellantis普通股今日正式开始在纽交所交易,开涨近13%。百度涨近5%。花旗将百度目标价由183美元上调近60%至292美元,维持“买入”评级。此外,威马汽车宣布,与百度Apollo共同研发的威马W6在威马湖北基地下线,将于今年上半年交付。据悉,威马W6可通过百度Apollo云端的百万级TOPS算力实现特定场景无人驾驶。游戏驿站涨超13%,上周累计涨幅超过100%。此前,Wedbush分析师Michael Pachter重申对游戏驿站的“中性”评级,目标价16美元。该分析师认为,尽管游戏驿站处于有利地位,并将成为新主机发布的主要受益者,但是其前景仍不明朗。黑莓涨超9%,此前,有媒体报道称,黑莓公司近日已经向华为出售了90项智能手机技术专利。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":338307646,"gmtCreate":1609823751885,"gmtModify":1703740685165,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"落袋为安,在进场。","listText":"落袋为安,在进场。","text":"落袋为安,在进场。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338307646","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2296,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393274961,"gmtCreate":1606316299153,"gmtModify":1703842587168,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"回调价,也要盘点振震下跌。变盘变化越来越好。稳步走势,明年回稳上行。","listText":"回调价,也要盘点振震下跌。变盘变化越来越好。稳步走势,明年回稳上行。","text":"回调价,也要盘点振震下跌。变盘变化越来越好。稳步走势,明年回稳上行。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393274961","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976403720,"gmtCreate":1599797543060,"gmtModify":1703819750810,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"内部笑了,管理者好用,管理者差就走人。企业也一样。","listText":"内部笑了,管理者好用,管理者差就走人。企业也一样。","text":"内部笑了,管理者好用,管理者差就走人。企业也一样。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976403720","repostId":"959241051","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":959241051,"gmtCreate":1589938640069,"gmtModify":1704191175656,"author":{"id":"3514329116425907","authorId":"3514329116425907","name":"小虎AV","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/162e12f8dcec770ec19f66f2abb0d5db","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514329116425907","authorIdStr":"3514329116425907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"\n \n \n 【瑞幸董事长陆正耀回应被要求退市:深感失望和遗憾】5月20日凌晨,瑞幸咖啡董事长陆正耀发表个人声明称,纳斯达克不等最终调查结果就要求公司退市,出乎意料,对此个人深感失望和遗憾。他坚信瑞幸咖啡的商业模式和商业逻辑。瑞幸如果退市,会倾尽全力维持门店运营[眼眼] 今天瑞幸会复牌,各位股东把握时机。。。。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>\n \n","listText":"【瑞幸董事长陆正耀回应被要求退市:深感失望和遗憾】5月20日凌晨,瑞幸咖啡董事长陆正耀发表个人声明称,纳斯达克不等最终调查结果就要求公司退市,出乎意料,对此个人深感失望和遗憾。他坚信瑞幸咖啡的商业模式和商业逻辑。瑞幸如果退市,会倾尽全力维持门店运营[眼眼] 今天瑞幸会复牌,各位股东把握时机。。。。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>","text":"【瑞幸董事长陆正耀回应被要求退市:深感失望和遗憾】5月20日凌晨,瑞幸咖啡董事长陆正耀发表个人声明称,纳斯达克不等最终调查结果就要求公司退市,出乎意料,对此个人深感失望和遗憾。他坚信瑞幸咖啡的商业模式和商业逻辑。瑞幸如果退市,会倾尽全力维持门店运营[眼眼] 今天瑞幸会复牌,各位股东把握时机。。。。$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959241051","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"4206bd9d0fa146759ff2e482d059722a","tweetId":"959241051","title":"瑞幸董事长陆正耀回应被要求退市:深感失望和遗憾_老板联播-梨视频官网-Pear 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11:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特赢在哪里?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131734009","media":" 房东经济学","summary":"2020年8月30日,股神巴菲特过了自己的90岁生日。在美国众多超级富豪当中,我觉得最值得羡慕的人就是他了,美国排名前十的富豪里只有他是从投资做起来的,他的投资经历跨越了大半个世纪,在无数大事小事的历练中变得越来越强大,造福了无数投资者、也成就了自己的财富神话,现年已经90岁的他身体仍然不错。赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特是真正的人生赢家。","content":"<p>2020年8月30日,股神巴菲特过了自己的90岁生日。在美国众多超级富豪当中,我觉得最值得羡慕的人就是他了,美国排名前十的富豪里只有他是从投资做起来的,他的投资经历跨越了大半个世纪,在无数大事小事的历练中变得越来越强大,造福了无数投资者、也成就了自己的财富神话,现年已经90岁的他身体仍然不错。</p><p>赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特是真正的人生赢家。下面我们就来看看他为什么能赢。</p><p><b>眼光够好</b></p><p>股神的眼光不一般,这点成绩说明一切:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>的股价从1965年至2017年的五十二年间,平均每年上涨20.9%,超过同期标普500平均年化9.9%的上涨速度。</p><p>从数字看,巴菲特的年化收益率比标普500这个基准高一倍多一点,但复利下来是什么概念呢?我们将收益图拉长至1964 - 2015,伯克希尔的表现直接把标普500这个基准线压成了一条水平线。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aed3bc22883bce85e629ed8cb9344e0\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\">伯克希尔哈撒韦 VS 标普500 1964-2015 (1964年定基100)</p><p>巴菲特的投资嗅觉敏锐,作为一个甜食爱好者,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>正好就是股神最漂亮的投资之一。</p><p>1988年,巴菲特重仓买入5亿美元的可口可乐,1989年增持4亿美元,1994年又增持3亿美元,累计投资13亿美元,当时可口可乐市值占伯克希尔账面价值的25%,仓位极重。到了十年之后1998年,他的持仓升值到133亿美元,一只股票十年十倍,十年净赚120亿美元,后来伯克希尔继续持有可口可乐至今。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fc46eb6cef4e6e0c72a54d9330e079f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"563\">伯克希尔哈撒韦2019年1月1日持仓状况</p><p>巴菲特是一个甜食爱好者,而且洞察力极强,他发现零售机四周扔弃的瓶盖中,可口可乐的瓶盖比例很高;他也非常认同可口可乐的护城河,当时他和芒格得出的结论是:就算找到这个地球上最好的营销团队,想要复制出这样的可乐品牌,花1000亿美元都办不到(当时可口可乐市值仅200亿美元)。</p><p>另一个考量因素在于可口可乐的毛利率很高(超过80%),只要可口可乐卖得越多,利润自然就更高,而且可口可乐在过去八十年里销量保持稳定上升,即便如此,80年代末时全世界还有很多欠发达地区的人口没有尝过可乐的味道,他们在想:到2000年、2025年、2050年时,可口可乐的销售量会是多少?结果令人心动。当时可口可乐市盈率15倍,市净率5倍左右,估值便宜,巴菲特把握了这一次机会。大多数分析师只会分析几个季度的财报预测,但很少有人对几十年的跨度有这样准确的判断。</p><p><b>比可口可乐更刺激的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>。</b>伯克希尔在2016年至2018年连续买入苹果股票,2019年底伯克希尔公开数据显示公司持有了大约2.5亿股苹果股票,成本352.8亿美元(平均每股成本141美元),2019年底是市值已经达到737亿美元(每股292美元),如今苹果股票价格是500美元并即将按照1:4拆股。假设伯克希尔的苹果持仓没有发生大幅变化,<b>那么短短几年间,伯克希尔通过苹果就赚了900多亿美元。</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e59625236439eec5595692c908be72a\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"315\">伯克希尔2019年末持仓数据</p><p>巴菲特在今年2月接受媒体采访时曾这么评价:苹果不是一只股票,而是保险和铁路之后伯克希尔哈撒韦的第三大业务,苹果“可能是我所知道世界上最好的生意”。</p><p><b>国运够强</b></p><p>没有人的成功能够离开时代,巴菲特的成功其实是美国成功的一个体现,在他的人生中,美国国运一路向上,这也使得美股长牛。如果让巴菲特出生在一个战乱不断、教育缺失的贫困国家,他不可能会有今天这样的成绩。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15237627c40ce402c337a6e0f2098717\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\">美国、中国、日本GDP (1960-2018)</p><p>巴菲特从美国得到的幸运不仅仅在于投资,而是从出生时就开始享受了,他出生在美国一个中产家庭,<b>从小就家里住独立屋(别墅)、开私家车,对美国来说,这就是1930年代中产阶级的普遍生活水准,</b>纵观整个二十世纪,很难找到另一个国运比美国更好的国家。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06d1fe76b971b424aa12d21e48a145a\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"1384\">巴菲特童年照片</p><p>巴菲特在2017年参加《福布斯》杂志100周年庆典时表示<b>,美国股市只有一条路,那就是上坡路。他认为,100年内道指将升破100万点(当时道指约2.2万点)。</b></p><p>他说的没错,过去美股就是这样的走法,即使是一个人不如巴菲特有眼光,他于1950年用1万美元买入标普500指数,不算历年分红再投资,今天的价值也达到180万美元,名义上翻了180倍,扣除通胀因素则翻了18倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b2dee2d1528ede5a5e0e489e6e0c4a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\">标普500指数 1928-2019</p><p><b>活得够久</b></p><p><b>投资最讲究的是复利,当时间的朋友。</b>正如第一部分所说,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦从1965年至2017年的五十二年间,平均每年上涨20.9%,这个回报率可能还远远不及A股的各路股神如徐翔、赵老哥等人。以徐翔为例,他旗下产品年化收益率约200%,是巴菲特的十倍水平,可惜徐翔的路子太野,最终因涉嫌操纵证券市场、内幕交易犯罪而被捕,200%的年化回报没能得到持续。</p><p>巴菲特强就强在他的高收益持续了半个多世纪,正是因为复利在基数越来越大的后期威力也不断增加,巴菲特有96%的财富都是60岁以后获得的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d655f1e608f507c676e587e4201672e\" tg-width=\"637\" tg-height=\"635\">巴菲特身价 14岁至87岁</p><p>过去十年,虽然伯克希尔的表现相对标普500(全收益)已没有优势,而且大幅输给侧重于信息技术的纳斯达克指数。但需要了解的是,过去十多年的美股长牛主要是科技股带动起来的,而巴菲特的大多数投资都集中在金融、消费等传统行业,伯克希尔能在这种情况下获得与标普500不相上下的回报已经是非常厉害了。</p><p>目前,巴菲特身价790亿美元,按照过去五十多年的平均收益率来看,巴菲特每多活一年,他的财富就可以增长超过170亿美元。都说越有钱的人越怕死,原因就在这里,他们雪球大,每年的复利成果大到可怕。</p><p>股神的身体状况目前相当不错,由于今年疫情影响,最近的一次线下大会还是在2019年的股东大会,当时89岁的巴菲特和95岁的芒格回答了6个小时的提问,一共应对了投资者50多个问题。89岁和95岁的两个老人在万众瞩目之下高负荷输出六个小时,这可能是很多年轻人都做不到的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fcea5be2d0c8ddc35e8e5da8d172e3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\">巴菲特和芒格,伯克希尔哈撒韦2019年股东大会</p><p><b>股神打败自己</b></p><p>虽然巴菲特是一个这样幸运的股神,但随着时间的推移,他也逐渐难逃自己过去的预言。</p><p><b>巴菲特一直认为指数基金可以轻松打败主动型基金。</b>他觉得99%的市场参与者应该购买指数基金,而不是自己去买卖股票。</p><p>为了证实自己观点的正确性,2007年12月19日,巴菲特在Long Bets网站上发布“十年赌约”,以50万美元为赌注,指定Girls Inc.of Omaha这个慈善组织为受益人,若巴菲特赌赢则该组织可获得其赢得的全部赌金。他认为:<b>“任何一名职业投资人可选择至少5只对冲基金,在这段很长的时间内,职业投资人选择对冲基金的表现会落后于只收取象征性费用的标普500指数基金的表现”。</b></p><p>最后,这组由专业人士精心挑选的对冲基金全都输给了标普500。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9478bfae4c90c783366a2d972ba030e1\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"441\">五只FOF基金和标普500指数基金在十年赌约中的表现,全部输给标普500</p><p>不光是参与赌局的FOF基金,<b>其实现在的伯克希尔也难以再战胜指数了。</b></p><p>我们不妨看一下伯克希尔的表现,2008年12月31日,伯克希尔A类股收盘价格96600美元;到了2018年12月31日,伯克希尔A类股收于306000美元,巴菲特的伯克希尔十年总收益317%,由于伯克希尔从未进行分红,因此这就是股东的全部收益;</p><p>而2008年12月31日,标普500全收益指数(含股息)收于1452.98,2018年12月31日,标普500全收益指数(含股息)收于5035.45,标普500指数十年总收益347%(含股息收益)。<b>可见,2008-2018年十年期间,巴菲特输给了标普500全收益指数30%。</b></p><p>被动投资的威力还在变得越来越强:</p><p>2019年以来,标普500上涨28.7%,伯克希尔仅上涨18.3%,巴菲特在这一年的时间里输给标普500整整10个百分点;</p><p>再看今年,到目前为止标普500上涨8.6%,伯克希尔则是下跌了3.6%,才大半年巴菲特输给标普500超过12个百分点。</p><p>巴菲特言行一致,在2019年第四季度伯克希尔也买入了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a>,尽管数量不算多,但有很强的意义。<b>巴菲特曾预言主动投资干不过被动投资,最后自己也逃不出这个预言!</b></p><p>对巴菲特的历史成绩做统计,我们会发现:</p><p>在1957至1975年的出道期,巴菲特年均收益21.0%;</p><p>在1976至1998年的巅峰期,巴菲特年均收益30.4%;</p><p>在1999至2019年的老年期,他的年均收益为9.4%。</p><p>股神成绩的变化和美国产业变迁有密不可分的联系,他尤其喜欢金融和消费行业,但在过去的二十年,科技股崛起,很长一段时间内科技股的缺席可能是他最大的遗憾,即便是这样,在过去二十年他的成绩仍然强过大盘,这也说明巴菲特对自己熟悉的传统行业的确已经做到了极致(在缺少科技股的情况下还能有这么好的成绩)。后来的事实证明他是一个善于学习和勇于改变的人,他在2016-2018年大手笔买入苹果这一具有消费属性的科技股,堪称完美的一战。</p>","source":"lsy1573394270695","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特赢在哪里?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特赢在哪里?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-31 11:50 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tksZ5AJu4ZZYTnZ1Q2XmNw><strong> 房东经济学</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年8月30日,股神巴菲特过了自己的90岁生日。在美国众多超级富豪当中,我觉得最值得羡慕的人就是他了,美国排名前十的富豪里只有他是从投资做起来的,他的投资经历跨越了大半个世纪,在无数大事小事的历练中变得越来越强大,造福了无数投资者、也成就了自己的财富神话,现年已经90岁的他身体仍然不错。赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特是真正的人生赢家。下面我们就来看看他为什么能赢。眼光够好股神的眼光不一般,这点...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tksZ5AJu4ZZYTnZ1Q2XmNw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48b402548399cb86b8c641f128495d0e","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tksZ5AJu4ZZYTnZ1Q2XmNw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131734009","content_text":"2020年8月30日,股神巴菲特过了自己的90岁生日。在美国众多超级富豪当中,我觉得最值得羡慕的人就是他了,美国排名前十的富豪里只有他是从投资做起来的,他的投资经历跨越了大半个世纪,在无数大事小事的历练中变得越来越强大,造福了无数投资者、也成就了自己的财富神话,现年已经90岁的他身体仍然不错。赚得够多又活得够久,巴菲特是真正的人生赢家。下面我们就来看看他为什么能赢。眼光够好股神的眼光不一般,这点成绩说明一切:伯克希尔的股价从1965年至2017年的五十二年间,平均每年上涨20.9%,超过同期标普500平均年化9.9%的上涨速度。从数字看,巴菲特的年化收益率比标普500这个基准高一倍多一点,但复利下来是什么概念呢?我们将收益图拉长至1964 - 2015,伯克希尔的表现直接把标普500这个基准线压成了一条水平线。伯克希尔哈撒韦 VS 标普500 1964-2015 (1964年定基100)巴菲特的投资嗅觉敏锐,作为一个甜食爱好者,可口可乐正好就是股神最漂亮的投资之一。1988年,巴菲特重仓买入5亿美元的可口可乐,1989年增持4亿美元,1994年又增持3亿美元,累计投资13亿美元,当时可口可乐市值占伯克希尔账面价值的25%,仓位极重。到了十年之后1998年,他的持仓升值到133亿美元,一只股票十年十倍,十年净赚120亿美元,后来伯克希尔继续持有可口可乐至今。伯克希尔哈撒韦2019年1月1日持仓状况巴菲特是一个甜食爱好者,而且洞察力极强,他发现零售机四周扔弃的瓶盖中,可口可乐的瓶盖比例很高;他也非常认同可口可乐的护城河,当时他和芒格得出的结论是:就算找到这个地球上最好的营销团队,想要复制出这样的可乐品牌,花1000亿美元都办不到(当时可口可乐市值仅200亿美元)。另一个考量因素在于可口可乐的毛利率很高(超过80%),只要可口可乐卖得越多,利润自然就更高,而且可口可乐在过去八十年里销量保持稳定上升,即便如此,80年代末时全世界还有很多欠发达地区的人口没有尝过可乐的味道,他们在想:到2000年、2025年、2050年时,可口可乐的销售量会是多少?结果令人心动。当时可口可乐市盈率15倍,市净率5倍左右,估值便宜,巴菲特把握了这一次机会。大多数分析师只会分析几个季度的财报预测,但很少有人对几十年的跨度有这样准确的判断。比可口可乐更刺激的是苹果。伯克希尔在2016年至2018年连续买入苹果股票,2019年底伯克希尔公开数据显示公司持有了大约2.5亿股苹果股票,成本352.8亿美元(平均每股成本141美元),2019年底是市值已经达到737亿美元(每股292美元),如今苹果股票价格是500美元并即将按照1:4拆股。假设伯克希尔的苹果持仓没有发生大幅变化,那么短短几年间,伯克希尔通过苹果就赚了900多亿美元。伯克希尔2019年末持仓数据巴菲特在今年2月接受媒体采访时曾这么评价:苹果不是一只股票,而是保险和铁路之后伯克希尔哈撒韦的第三大业务,苹果“可能是我所知道世界上最好的生意”。国运够强没有人的成功能够离开时代,巴菲特的成功其实是美国成功的一个体现,在他的人生中,美国国运一路向上,这也使得美股长牛。如果让巴菲特出生在一个战乱不断、教育缺失的贫困国家,他不可能会有今天这样的成绩。美国、中国、日本GDP (1960-2018)巴菲特从美国得到的幸运不仅仅在于投资,而是从出生时就开始享受了,他出生在美国一个中产家庭,从小就家里住独立屋(别墅)、开私家车,对美国来说,这就是1930年代中产阶级的普遍生活水准,纵观整个二十世纪,很难找到另一个国运比美国更好的国家。巴菲特童年照片巴菲特在2017年参加《福布斯》杂志100周年庆典时表示,美国股市只有一条路,那就是上坡路。他认为,100年内道指将升破100万点(当时道指约2.2万点)。他说的没错,过去美股就是这样的走法,即使是一个人不如巴菲特有眼光,他于1950年用1万美元买入标普500指数,不算历年分红再投资,今天的价值也达到180万美元,名义上翻了180倍,扣除通胀因素则翻了18倍。标普500指数 1928-2019活得够久投资最讲究的是复利,当时间的朋友。正如第一部分所说,巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦从1965年至2017年的五十二年间,平均每年上涨20.9%,这个回报率可能还远远不及A股的各路股神如徐翔、赵老哥等人。以徐翔为例,他旗下产品年化收益率约200%,是巴菲特的十倍水平,可惜徐翔的路子太野,最终因涉嫌操纵证券市场、内幕交易犯罪而被捕,200%的年化回报没能得到持续。巴菲特强就强在他的高收益持续了半个多世纪,正是因为复利在基数越来越大的后期威力也不断增加,巴菲特有96%的财富都是60岁以后获得的。巴菲特身价 14岁至87岁过去十年,虽然伯克希尔的表现相对标普500(全收益)已没有优势,而且大幅输给侧重于信息技术的纳斯达克指数。但需要了解的是,过去十多年的美股长牛主要是科技股带动起来的,而巴菲特的大多数投资都集中在金融、消费等传统行业,伯克希尔能在这种情况下获得与标普500不相上下的回报已经是非常厉害了。目前,巴菲特身价790亿美元,按照过去五十多年的平均收益率来看,巴菲特每多活一年,他的财富就可以增长超过170亿美元。都说越有钱的人越怕死,原因就在这里,他们雪球大,每年的复利成果大到可怕。股神的身体状况目前相当不错,由于今年疫情影响,最近的一次线下大会还是在2019年的股东大会,当时89岁的巴菲特和95岁的芒格回答了6个小时的提问,一共应对了投资者50多个问题。89岁和95岁的两个老人在万众瞩目之下高负荷输出六个小时,这可能是很多年轻人都做不到的。巴菲特和芒格,伯克希尔哈撒韦2019年股东大会股神打败自己虽然巴菲特是一个这样幸运的股神,但随着时间的推移,他也逐渐难逃自己过去的预言。巴菲特一直认为指数基金可以轻松打败主动型基金。他觉得99%的市场参与者应该购买指数基金,而不是自己去买卖股票。为了证实自己观点的正确性,2007年12月19日,巴菲特在Long Bets网站上发布“十年赌约”,以50万美元为赌注,指定Girls Inc.of Omaha这个慈善组织为受益人,若巴菲特赌赢则该组织可获得其赢得的全部赌金。他认为:“任何一名职业投资人可选择至少5只对冲基金,在这段很长的时间内,职业投资人选择对冲基金的表现会落后于只收取象征性费用的标普500指数基金的表现”。最后,这组由专业人士精心挑选的对冲基金全都输给了标普500。五只FOF基金和标普500指数基金在十年赌约中的表现,全部输给标普500不光是参与赌局的FOF基金,其实现在的伯克希尔也难以再战胜指数了。我们不妨看一下伯克希尔的表现,2008年12月31日,伯克希尔A类股收盘价格96600美元;到了2018年12月31日,伯克希尔A类股收于306000美元,巴菲特的伯克希尔十年总收益317%,由于伯克希尔从未进行分红,因此这就是股东的全部收益;而2008年12月31日,标普500全收益指数(含股息)收于1452.98,2018年12月31日,标普500全收益指数(含股息)收于5035.45,标普500指数十年总收益347%(含股息收益)。可见,2008-2018年十年期间,巴菲特输给了标普500全收益指数30%。被动投资的威力还在变得越来越强:2019年以来,标普500上涨28.7%,伯克希尔仅上涨18.3%,巴菲特在这一年的时间里输给标普500整整10个百分点;再看今年,到目前为止标普500上涨8.6%,伯克希尔则是下跌了3.6%,才大半年巴菲特输给标普500超过12个百分点。巴菲特言行一致,在2019年第四季度伯克希尔也买入了标普500ETF,尽管数量不算多,但有很强的意义。巴菲特曾预言主动投资干不过被动投资,最后自己也逃不出这个预言!对巴菲特的历史成绩做统计,我们会发现:在1957至1975年的出道期,巴菲特年均收益21.0%;在1976至1998年的巅峰期,巴菲特年均收益30.4%;在1999至2019年的老年期,他的年均收益为9.4%。股神成绩的变化和美国产业变迁有密不可分的联系,他尤其喜欢金融和消费行业,但在过去的二十年,科技股崛起,很长一段时间内科技股的缺席可能是他最大的遗憾,即便是这样,在过去二十年他的成绩仍然强过大盘,这也说明巴菲特对自己熟悉的传统行业的确已经做到了极致(在缺少科技股的情况下还能有这么好的成绩)。后来的事实证明他是一个善于学习和勇于改变的人,他在2016-2018年大手笔买入苹果这一具有消费属性的科技股,堪称完美的一战。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971008951,"gmtCreate":1598635868273,"gmtModify":1704219977231,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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21:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"泡沫破灭迹象显现?科技股已统治美股,牛市还能撑多久","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182523149","media":"券商中国","summary":"标普500距离历史新高仅一步之遥,然而因为分散投资而持有标普500指数ETF基金的投资者,正被迫“看好”五大科技股。据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,标普500指数中前五大科技股的市值占比超过23%,而","content":"<p>标普500距离历史新高仅一步之遥,然而因为分散投资而持有标普500指数ETF基金的投资者,正被迫“看好”五大科技股。</p><p>据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,标普500指数中前五大科技股的市值占比超过23%,而前10大成份股公司市值之和在该指数总市值中占比更接近30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%,少数几只巨头的上涨正推动标普500指数的前进。</p><p>值得一提的是,尽管一些华尔街的基金经理强调,标普500指数头部股票集中可能带来潜在的风险,集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。但高盛最新发布的研报则强调,标普500指数未来一年仍有13%的上涨空间。</p><p><b>五大科技股支配标普500</b></p><p>北京时间8月19日,苹果公司股价收于462.25美元,市值1.98万亿美元,距离2万亿美元大关只差约1%。标普道琼斯和彭博的数据显示,目前苹果在标普500指数中的权重占比达到6.5%,超过了IBM公司在35年前创下的6.4%的纪录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b1ab4ba17f44c0f5058ba77c181115\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>截至8月19日收盘,苹果股票的市盈率为33.83倍,较标普500指数溢价约30%,为十年以来最高的水平。苹果仅仅是美股科技巨头影响股票市场的一个代表公司。</p><p>据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,当前标普500指数前10大成份股公司市值之和,在该指数总市值中占比已高达30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%。</p><p><b>五大科技股的疯狂拉升掩盖了更多美股上市公司的糟糕表现,虽然标普500指数今年以来的收益已转为上涨,收复疫情造成的失地后,但是标普500指数的大部分成分股,实际上并未享受到太多好处。根据一份统计数据显示,今年标普500指数中个股涨跌比为1:1.7。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7476fb4961618f389d93bec0dbc3e08c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>跌的公司比涨得公司更多,但年内指数却仍能收涨的重要因素在于,五大科技巨头的股价涨幅惊人,而五大科技公司对标普500指数有着支配性的影响。比如,苹果公司的股价年内涨幅早已超过50%,亚马逊公司的股价年内涨幅更是超过70%。</p><p><b>指数投资者被迫“看好”科技股?</b></p><p>在这种情况下,标普500指数似乎正在远离它最初的定位。</p><p>标普500指数,是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数,该指数是在1957年开始编制的,它最初的成份股包含了425种工业股票、15种铁路股票和60种公用事业股票,根据纽约证券交易所上市股票中绝大多数普通股票的价格计算而成。也正因为它包含的公司很多,所以它的指数数值很精确,能够反映出非常广泛的市场变化。</p><p>也正因为其被视为综合指数,能够有效的分散投资,因此该指数被指数基金投资者广泛关注。但标普500指数当前的现实是,它更像是一只科技主题指数,这意味着那些流向标普500ETF的被动资金,实际上正“看好”科技股。</p><p><b>造成这一问题的因素在于,标普500指数是一个市值加权指数,市值越高,权重就越大。根据公开的数据,在2018年的前七个月的标普500指数收益中,标普指数99%的上涨是由谷歌、苹果、亚马逊、微软等六大科技股贡献的。</b></p><p>也就是说,即便投资者并不看好科技股,但持有跟踪标普500指数的ETF基金,实际上意味着投资者正被迫“看好”科技股,而且是少数的几只。但反过来,一旦这少数几只科技股的势头出现变化,也意味着将对投资者带来重大风险。</p><p>少数几家科技股支配着标普500指数,市值占比持续提升的情况,令许多投资者想起了另一个泡沫。在2017年加密货币的牛市末期,比特币市值占比仅仅用一个多月的时间从就62.8%下降到32.81%,接近50%的跌幅。而在牛市期间,比特币一只标的的市值,就占加密货币总市值高达60%以上的份额,但比特币的市值占比成为当时的反向指标。</p><p><b>失真的标普500指数还能走多远?</b></p><p>五大科技股在标普500指数中的支配地位,已经引起许多投资者的高度警惕。</p><p>根据媒体报道,华尔街大多头、美国宏桥信托投资集团(BTIG)首席股票和衍生品策略师Julian Emanuel警告称,目前美股市场最大的赢家们可能已处于泡沫中,建议投资者考虑削减他们对大型科技股的风险敞口。</p><p>Julian Emanuel表示,科技股存在不成比例的风险。这就是投资者担心出现泡沫的地方。被称为“FAAMG”股票的五大科技股——Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、微软和谷歌——是最脆弱的,在顶部和底部板块之间的相对表现上存在失调,或者说是泡沫。</p><p>华尔街人士警告称,当科技股泡沫破裂时,标普500指数不会毫发无损,因为该指数对大型科技公司也有巨大敞口,考虑到目前市场上的风险因素,市场存在回调的可能。</p><p><b>值得一提的是,2020年的美股的整体估值比2009年要高得多。这背后的一大因素的科技股占比巨大,2009年时只占18.4%,而今则占32%。此外,能源股的市值占比下降,从12.4%下降到3%。</b></p><p>五大科技股对标普500指数的“扭曲”,早就引起了一些基金经理的关注,但最终的表现实际上远远超出投资者的预期。</p><p>早在两年前,Smead资本管理公司首席执行官兼首席投资官Bill Smead就认为,如果指数中某个行业的大盘股数量太多,这是一个不好的迹象。Smead说:“1929年的RCA股票,六十年代的漂亮50,1981年的石油股,1999年的科技股和2005年的银行股,在市场崩盘前都曾释放出过类似的信号。在每个时代,特定行业股票的大量集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。”</p><p>即便如此,科技股的泡沫或者标普500指数的走势,仍然一如既往的超出预期。</p><p>就在最近,虽然市场再度争论标普500指数因为五大科技公司变得失真,但一些机构投资者依然认为科技股将继续推动泡沫,标普500指数依然有不错的上涨空间。</p><p>高盛在8月14日发布的研报中称,考虑到美国的增长前景和新冠肺炎疫苗的前景,美股可能还会有更大的上涨空间。这份报告认为,对美国经济增长观点的市场计价仍有上升空间,尤其是考虑到早期疫苗的前景正在改善;只要增长改善是主导因素,这就可能与股市进一步上涨保持一致,即使近期实际收益率下降的趋势出现逆转,2020年底批准疫苗和2021二季度年底广泛分发疫苗作为上调美国经济增长的核心理由。</p><p>关于指数的上涨空间,高盛研报中称,标普500指数在年底的隐含水平可能在3600点以上,而未来12个月则有望升至3800点。这意味着高盛判断标普500指数未来一年内仍有13%的上涨空间。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>泡沫破灭迹象显现?科技股已统治美股,牛市还能撑多久</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n泡沫破灭迹象显现?科技股已统治美股,牛市还能撑多久\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-19 21:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>标普500距离历史新高仅一步之遥,然而因为分散投资而持有标普500指数ETF基金的投资者,正被迫“看好”五大科技股。</p><p>据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,标普500指数中前五大科技股的市值占比超过23%,而前10大成份股公司市值之和在该指数总市值中占比更接近30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%,少数几只巨头的上涨正推动标普500指数的前进。</p><p>值得一提的是,尽管一些华尔街的基金经理强调,标普500指数头部股票集中可能带来潜在的风险,集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。但高盛最新发布的研报则强调,标普500指数未来一年仍有13%的上涨空间。</p><p><b>五大科技股支配标普500</b></p><p>北京时间8月19日,苹果公司股价收于462.25美元,市值1.98万亿美元,距离2万亿美元大关只差约1%。标普道琼斯和彭博的数据显示,目前苹果在标普500指数中的权重占比达到6.5%,超过了IBM公司在35年前创下的6.4%的纪录。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b1ab4ba17f44c0f5058ba77c181115\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>截至8月19日收盘,苹果股票的市盈率为33.83倍,较标普500指数溢价约30%,为十年以来最高的水平。苹果仅仅是美股科技巨头影响股票市场的一个代表公司。</p><p>据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,当前标普500指数前10大成份股公司市值之和,在该指数总市值中占比已高达30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%。</p><p><b>五大科技股的疯狂拉升掩盖了更多美股上市公司的糟糕表现,虽然标普500指数今年以来的收益已转为上涨,收复疫情造成的失地后,但是标普500指数的大部分成分股,实际上并未享受到太多好处。根据一份统计数据显示,今年标普500指数中个股涨跌比为1:1.7。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7476fb4961618f389d93bec0dbc3e08c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>跌的公司比涨得公司更多,但年内指数却仍能收涨的重要因素在于,五大科技巨头的股价涨幅惊人,而五大科技公司对标普500指数有着支配性的影响。比如,苹果公司的股价年内涨幅早已超过50%,亚马逊公司的股价年内涨幅更是超过70%。</p><p><b>指数投资者被迫“看好”科技股?</b></p><p>在这种情况下,标普500指数似乎正在远离它最初的定位。</p><p>标普500指数,是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数,该指数是在1957年开始编制的,它最初的成份股包含了425种工业股票、15种铁路股票和60种公用事业股票,根据纽约证券交易所上市股票中绝大多数普通股票的价格计算而成。也正因为它包含的公司很多,所以它的指数数值很精确,能够反映出非常广泛的市场变化。</p><p>也正因为其被视为综合指数,能够有效的分散投资,因此该指数被指数基金投资者广泛关注。但标普500指数当前的现实是,它更像是一只科技主题指数,这意味着那些流向标普500ETF的被动资金,实际上正“看好”科技股。</p><p><b>造成这一问题的因素在于,标普500指数是一个市值加权指数,市值越高,权重就越大。根据公开的数据,在2018年的前七个月的标普500指数收益中,标普指数99%的上涨是由谷歌、苹果、亚马逊、微软等六大科技股贡献的。</b></p><p>也就是说,即便投资者并不看好科技股,但持有跟踪标普500指数的ETF基金,实际上意味着投资者正被迫“看好”科技股,而且是少数的几只。但反过来,一旦这少数几只科技股的势头出现变化,也意味着将对投资者带来重大风险。</p><p>少数几家科技股支配着标普500指数,市值占比持续提升的情况,令许多投资者想起了另一个泡沫。在2017年加密货币的牛市末期,比特币市值占比仅仅用一个多月的时间从就62.8%下降到32.81%,接近50%的跌幅。而在牛市期间,比特币一只标的的市值,就占加密货币总市值高达60%以上的份额,但比特币的市值占比成为当时的反向指标。</p><p><b>失真的标普500指数还能走多远?</b></p><p>五大科技股在标普500指数中的支配地位,已经引起许多投资者的高度警惕。</p><p>根据媒体报道,华尔街大多头、美国宏桥信托投资集团(BTIG)首席股票和衍生品策略师Julian Emanuel警告称,目前美股市场最大的赢家们可能已处于泡沫中,建议投资者考虑削减他们对大型科技股的风险敞口。</p><p>Julian Emanuel表示,科技股存在不成比例的风险。这就是投资者担心出现泡沫的地方。被称为“FAAMG”股票的五大科技股——Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、微软和谷歌——是最脆弱的,在顶部和底部板块之间的相对表现上存在失调,或者说是泡沫。</p><p>华尔街人士警告称,当科技股泡沫破裂时,标普500指数不会毫发无损,因为该指数对大型科技公司也有巨大敞口,考虑到目前市场上的风险因素,市场存在回调的可能。</p><p><b>值得一提的是,2020年的美股的整体估值比2009年要高得多。这背后的一大因素的科技股占比巨大,2009年时只占18.4%,而今则占32%。此外,能源股的市值占比下降,从12.4%下降到3%。</b></p><p>五大科技股对标普500指数的“扭曲”,早就引起了一些基金经理的关注,但最终的表现实际上远远超出投资者的预期。</p><p>早在两年前,Smead资本管理公司首席执行官兼首席投资官Bill Smead就认为,如果指数中某个行业的大盘股数量太多,这是一个不好的迹象。Smead说:“1929年的RCA股票,六十年代的漂亮50,1981年的石油股,1999年的科技股和2005年的银行股,在市场崩盘前都曾释放出过类似的信号。在每个时代,特定行业股票的大量集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。”</p><p>即便如此,科技股的泡沫或者标普500指数的走势,仍然一如既往的超出预期。</p><p>就在最近,虽然市场再度争论标普500指数因为五大科技公司变得失真,但一些机构投资者依然认为科技股将继续推动泡沫,标普500指数依然有不错的上涨空间。</p><p>高盛在8月14日发布的研报中称,考虑到美国的增长前景和新冠肺炎疫苗的前景,美股可能还会有更大的上涨空间。这份报告认为,对美国经济增长观点的市场计价仍有上升空间,尤其是考虑到早期疫苗的前景正在改善;只要增长改善是主导因素,这就可能与股市进一步上涨保持一致,即使近期实际收益率下降的趋势出现逆转,2020年底批准疫苗和2021二季度年底广泛分发疫苗作为上调美国经济增长的核心理由。</p><p>关于指数的上涨空间,高盛研报中称,标普500指数在年底的隐含水平可能在3600点以上,而未来12个月则有望升至3800点。这意味着高盛判断标普500指数未来一年内仍有13%的上涨空间。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96819b78df36696eeccbf03ebd7c466d","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182523149","content_text":"标普500距离历史新高仅一步之遥,然而因为分散投资而持有标普500指数ETF基金的投资者,正被迫“看好”五大科技股。据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,标普500指数中前五大科技股的市值占比超过23%,而前10大成份股公司市值之和在该指数总市值中占比更接近30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%,少数几只巨头的上涨正推动标普500指数的前进。值得一提的是,尽管一些华尔街的基金经理强调,标普500指数头部股票集中可能带来潜在的风险,集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。但高盛最新发布的研报则强调,标普500指数未来一年仍有13%的上涨空间。五大科技股支配标普500北京时间8月19日,苹果公司股价收于462.25美元,市值1.98万亿美元,距离2万亿美元大关只差约1%。标普道琼斯和彭博的数据显示,目前苹果在标普500指数中的权重占比达到6.5%,超过了IBM公司在35年前创下的6.4%的纪录。截至8月19日收盘,苹果股票的市盈率为33.83倍,较标普500指数溢价约30%,为十年以来最高的水平。苹果仅仅是美股科技巨头影响股票市场的一个代表公司。据来自标普道琼斯指数公司的数据,当前标普500指数前10大成份股公司市值之和,在该指数总市值中占比已高达30%,这是至少40年来的最高占比,高于2019年底的22.7%。五大科技股的疯狂拉升掩盖了更多美股上市公司的糟糕表现,虽然标普500指数今年以来的收益已转为上涨,收复疫情造成的失地后,但是标普500指数的大部分成分股,实际上并未享受到太多好处。根据一份统计数据显示,今年标普500指数中个股涨跌比为1:1.7。跌的公司比涨得公司更多,但年内指数却仍能收涨的重要因素在于,五大科技巨头的股价涨幅惊人,而五大科技公司对标普500指数有着支配性的影响。比如,苹果公司的股价年内涨幅早已超过50%,亚马逊公司的股价年内涨幅更是超过70%。指数投资者被迫“看好”科技股?在这种情况下,标普500指数似乎正在远离它最初的定位。标普500指数,是记录美国500家上市公司的一个股票指数,该指数是在1957年开始编制的,它最初的成份股包含了425种工业股票、15种铁路股票和60种公用事业股票,根据纽约证券交易所上市股票中绝大多数普通股票的价格计算而成。也正因为它包含的公司很多,所以它的指数数值很精确,能够反映出非常广泛的市场变化。也正因为其被视为综合指数,能够有效的分散投资,因此该指数被指数基金投资者广泛关注。但标普500指数当前的现实是,它更像是一只科技主题指数,这意味着那些流向标普500ETF的被动资金,实际上正“看好”科技股。造成这一问题的因素在于,标普500指数是一个市值加权指数,市值越高,权重就越大。根据公开的数据,在2018年的前七个月的标普500指数收益中,标普指数99%的上涨是由谷歌、苹果、亚马逊、微软等六大科技股贡献的。也就是说,即便投资者并不看好科技股,但持有跟踪标普500指数的ETF基金,实际上意味着投资者正被迫“看好”科技股,而且是少数的几只。但反过来,一旦这少数几只科技股的势头出现变化,也意味着将对投资者带来重大风险。少数几家科技股支配着标普500指数,市值占比持续提升的情况,令许多投资者想起了另一个泡沫。在2017年加密货币的牛市末期,比特币市值占比仅仅用一个多月的时间从就62.8%下降到32.81%,接近50%的跌幅。而在牛市期间,比特币一只标的的市值,就占加密货币总市值高达60%以上的份额,但比特币的市值占比成为当时的反向指标。失真的标普500指数还能走多远?五大科技股在标普500指数中的支配地位,已经引起许多投资者的高度警惕。根据媒体报道,华尔街大多头、美国宏桥信托投资集团(BTIG)首席股票和衍生品策略师Julian Emanuel警告称,目前美股市场最大的赢家们可能已处于泡沫中,建议投资者考虑削减他们对大型科技股的风险敞口。Julian Emanuel表示,科技股存在不成比例的风险。这就是投资者担心出现泡沫的地方。被称为“FAAMG”股票的五大科技股——Facebook、苹果、亚马逊、微软和谷歌——是最脆弱的,在顶部和底部板块之间的相对表现上存在失调,或者说是泡沫。华尔街人士警告称,当科技股泡沫破裂时,标普500指数不会毫发无损,因为该指数对大型科技公司也有巨大敞口,考虑到目前市场上的风险因素,市场存在回调的可能。值得一提的是,2020年的美股的整体估值比2009年要高得多。这背后的一大因素的科技股占比巨大,2009年时只占18.4%,而今则占32%。此外,能源股的市值占比下降,从12.4%下降到3%。五大科技股对标普500指数的“扭曲”,早就引起了一些基金经理的关注,但最终的表现实际上远远超出投资者的预期。早在两年前,Smead资本管理公司首席执行官兼首席投资官Bill Smead就认为,如果指数中某个行业的大盘股数量太多,这是一个不好的迹象。Smead说:“1929年的RCA股票,六十年代的漂亮50,1981年的石油股,1999年的科技股和2005年的银行股,在市场崩盘前都曾释放出过类似的信号。在每个时代,特定行业股票的大量集中有助于推动牛市,但之后所导致的崩盘也更加严重。”即便如此,科技股的泡沫或者标普500指数的走势,仍然一如既往的超出预期。就在最近,虽然市场再度争论标普500指数因为五大科技公司变得失真,但一些机构投资者依然认为科技股将继续推动泡沫,标普500指数依然有不错的上涨空间。高盛在8月14日发布的研报中称,考虑到美国的增长前景和新冠肺炎疫苗的前景,美股可能还会有更大的上涨空间。这份报告认为,对美国经济增长观点的市场计价仍有上升空间,尤其是考虑到早期疫苗的前景正在改善;只要增长改善是主导因素,这就可能与股市进一步上涨保持一致,即使近期实际收益率下降的趋势出现逆转,2020年底批准疫苗和2021二季度年底广泛分发疫苗作为上调美国经济增长的核心理由。关于指数的上涨空间,高盛研报中称,标普500指数在年底的隐含水平可能在3600点以上,而未来12个月则有望升至3800点。这意味着高盛判断标普500指数未来一年内仍有13%的上涨空间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"你到底要表达啥,你语文没学好就再去学学,什么烂水平","text":"你到底要表达啥,你语文没学好就再去学学,什么烂水平","html":"你到底要表达啥,你语文没学好就再去学学,什么烂水平"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933980213,"gmtCreate":1569479174532,"gmtModify":1704719475308,"author":{"id":"3514068381898040","authorId":"3514068381898040","name":"宝武集团","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4254873f7d4928b268d7a42338f74512","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3514068381898040","authorIdStr":"3514068381898040"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我参加了。就很好,谢谢老虎给我这喜爱的平台","listText":"我参加了。就很好,谢谢老虎给我这喜爱的平台","text":"我参加了。就很好,谢谢老虎给我这喜爱的平台","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/933980213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3515046971821173","authorId":"3515046971821173","name":"炒股大赛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e862cecce5cc5eb9185192c5f2fcc60","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3515046971821173","authorIdStr":"3515046971821173"},"content":"[抱拳] 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