野兽教授的个人主页 - 老虎社区

野兽教授

野兽教授

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IP属地：上海

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0勋章

2021-12-10

又一个放**的

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-23

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$太黑暗，照死里整呀这是[财迷]

2021-07-27

$京东(JD)$看样子利益集团要整死电商，开供销社了

2021-03-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$看你下来[开心]

2021-01-21

我靠，拆股了，少了一半的股票数。。。。。开盘回来?vvv

2020-11-03

$蔚来(NIO)$几个意思？损失谁赔？？？？

2020-10-23

$通用汽车(GM)$所有的通用下品牌汽车，发动机，变速箱都有点问题，股家还涨

2020-08-25

$蔚来(NIO)$唉，阿斗！怎么跟特斯拉pk，新能源，国人还指望你呢

2020-08-24

$蔚来(NIO)$再不涨，出手，破玩意

2020-07-30

疯狗

特朗普建议推迟美国2020年大选，计谋能得逞吗？

2020-07-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$什么玩意

2020-07-10

$蔚来(NIO)$收割开始

2020-07-10

会不会低开高走呢？盘前跌就调整了

2020-07-09

又特么专家

海通国际：下半年全球金融市场将进入“阴跌”

2020-06-17

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 哼哼

2020-06-11

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 惨了惨了。。。。

2020-06-11

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ 今天惨了。。。。。

2020-06-10

$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 支持虎妞[微笑]

2020-05-28

$老虎证券(TIGR)$尿性不改

2020-04-17

$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$为什么有些人一直看空，不是一直在涨吗

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"特朗普建议推迟美国2020年大选，计谋能得逞吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113421338","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月30 日讯，当地时间30日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，“2020大选将是历史上最不准确和最具欺骗性的选举。这将使美国非常难堪。推迟选举，直到人们能够正确、安全地投票??”4月27日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他无意为了赢得连任，以此次新冠病毒疫情为借口，推迟原定于11月3日举行的总统大选。即使特朗普和国会推迟选举日期，他们也不可能无限期地这样做。","content":"<p>7月30&nbsp;日讯，当地时间30日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，“2020大选将是历史上最不准确和最具欺骗性的选举。这将使美国非常难堪。推迟选举，直到人们能够正确、安全地投票??”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1545cdda76a471b5f6f307fe5e5d4d89\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"334\">4月27日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他无意为了赢得连任，以此次新冠病毒疫情为借口，推迟原定于11月3日举行的总统大选。</p><p>他说，有关他可能试图推迟大选日期的说法，是他的民主党推定对手乔拜登竞选活动“捏造的宣传”策略。</p><p>4月27日，特朗普在白宫告诉记者，我从来没有想过要改变选举的日期。我为何要这么做？11月3日。这是个好数字。不，我期待着这次选举。</p><p>特朗普是在回应拜登上星期在一次网上竞选活动中的言论。拜登声称，现任总统试图以某种方式重新开始选举，找出一些解释为何不能举行选举的理由。</p><p>拜登说，这是他认为自己可能连任的唯一途径。</p><p>4月27日，另一位杰出的民主党人、曾为美国参议员伯尼·桑德斯2020年总统大选出谋略策的政治操作人士杰夫·韦弗也发表了类似言论。此前，纽约州成为第一个取消6月份总统初选的州。</p><p>韦弗在桑德斯竞选团队发表的一份声明中说，特朗普“现在有了一个(推迟全国大选)的先例，这要感谢纽约州”。</p><p>然而，尽管存在恐慌，这种情况几乎是不可能发生的。</p><p>根据美国宪法，美国国会有权修改总统选举日期，而不是总统领导的行政部门。可以想象，国会可以通过修改法律，授权总统决定“举行选举的时间、地点和方式”，但这需要得到美国参众两院的批准。</p><p>特朗普和共和党控制参议院，但众议院由民主党控制，众议院议长南希·佩洛西强烈反对特朗普，所以发生这种情况的可能性几乎为零。</p><p>即使特朗普和国会推迟选举日期，他们也不可能无限期地这样做。宪法第20修正案规定，总统任期的结束日期为1月20日中午。因此，除非他在那之前如期连任，否则特朗普将在那一天下台。</p><p>改变下一届任期的开始日期将需要一项宪法修正案，这一程序只有在参众两院三分之二的议员提出提案或三分之二的州立法机构要求召开制宪会议的情况下才会启动。一项新的修正案需要获得四分之三的州立法机构的批准。所有在1月之前完成。</p><p>只有一项宪法修正案后来被各州废除，即1919年制定的禁止生产和销售酒的第18修正案。</p><p>围绕推迟大选的激烈竞选言辞，掩盖了一个更实际的潜在政策争议。民主党领导人希望，在11月的选举中，邮寄选票能得到更广泛的使用。特朗普反对扩大邮寄选票的使用范围，认为邮寄投票容易出现欺诈现象。</p><p>作为2.2万亿美元新冠病毒救助法案的一部分，国会为各州拨款4亿美元以支持邮寄投票和提前投票。由各州决定采用哪种投票方式。</p><p>因此，不管社交媒体上流传着什么，也不管民主党人大肆宣扬什么，2020年美国总统大选仍将以某种方式向前推进。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普建议推迟美国2020年大选，计谋能得逞吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-30 21:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月30&nbsp;日讯，当地时间30日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，“2020大选将是历史上最不准确和最具欺骗性的选举。这将使美国非常难堪。推迟选举，直到人们能够正确、安全地投票??”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1545cdda76a471b5f6f307fe5e5d4d89\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"334\">4月27日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他无意为了赢得连任，以此次新冠病毒疫情为借口，推迟原定于11月3日举行的总统大选。</p><p>他说，有关他可能试图推迟大选日期的说法，是他的民主党推定对手乔拜登竞选活动“捏造的宣传”策略。</p><p>4月27日，特朗普在白宫告诉记者，我从来没有想过要改变选举的日期。我为何要这么做？11月3日。这是个好数字。不，我期待着这次选举。</p><p>特朗普是在回应拜登上星期在一次网上竞选活动中的言论。拜登声称，现任总统试图以某种方式重新开始选举，找出一些解释为何不能举行选举的理由。</p><p>拜登说，这是他认为自己可能连任的唯一途径。</p><p>4月27日，另一位杰出的民主党人、曾为美国参议员伯尼·桑德斯2020年总统大选出谋略策的政治操作人士杰夫·韦弗也发表了类似言论。此前，纽约州成为第一个取消6月份总统初选的州。</p><p>韦弗在桑德斯竞选团队发表的一份声明中说，特朗普“现在有了一个(推迟全国大选)的先例，这要感谢纽约州”。</p><p>然而，尽管存在恐慌，这种情况几乎是不可能发生的。</p><p>根据美国宪法，美国国会有权修改总统选举日期，而不是总统领导的行政部门。可以想象，国会可以通过修改法律，授权总统决定“举行选举的时间、地点和方式”，但这需要得到美国参众两院的批准。</p><p>特朗普和共和党控制参议院，但众议院由民主党控制，众议院议长南希·佩洛西强烈反对特朗普，所以发生这种情况的可能性几乎为零。</p><p>即使特朗普和国会推迟选举日期，他们也不可能无限期地这样做。宪法第20修正案规定，总统任期的结束日期为1月20日中午。因此，除非他在那之前如期连任，否则特朗普将在那一天下台。</p><p>改变下一届任期的开始日期将需要一项宪法修正案，这一程序只有在参众两院三分之二的议员提出提案或三分之二的州立法机构要求召开制宪会议的情况下才会启动。一项新的修正案需要获得四分之三的州立法机构的批准。所有在1月之前完成。</p><p>只有一项宪法修正案后来被各州废除，即1919年制定的禁止生产和销售酒的第18修正案。</p><p>围绕推迟大选的激烈竞选言辞，掩盖了一个更实际的潜在政策争议。民主党领导人希望，在11月的选举中，邮寄选票能得到更广泛的使用。特朗普反对扩大邮寄选票的使用范围，认为邮寄投票容易出现欺诈现象。</p><p>作为2.2万亿美元新冠病毒救助法案的一部分，国会为各州拨款4亿美元以支持邮寄投票和提前投票。由各州决定采用哪种投票方式。</p><p>因此，不管社交媒体上流传着什么，也不管民主党人大肆宣扬什么，2020年美国总统大选仍将以某种方式向前推进。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c21335c9fbf67353f7991d911935c983","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113421338","content_text":"7月30 日讯，当地时间30日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台发文称，“2020大选将是历史上最不准确和最具欺骗性的选举。这将使美国非常难堪。推迟选举，直到人们能够正确、安全地投票??”4月27日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他无意为了赢得连任，以此次新冠病毒疫情为借口，推迟原定于11月3日举行的总统大选。他说，有关他可能试图推迟大选日期的说法，是他的民主党推定对手乔拜登竞选活动“捏造的宣传”策略。4月27日，特朗普在白宫告诉记者，我从来没有想过要改变选举的日期。我为何要这么做？11月3日。这是个好数字。不，我期待着这次选举。特朗普是在回应拜登上星期在一次网上竞选活动中的言论。拜登声称，现任总统试图以某种方式重新开始选举，找出一些解释为何不能举行选举的理由。拜登说，这是他认为自己可能连任的唯一途径。4月27日，另一位杰出的民主党人、曾为美国参议员伯尼·桑德斯2020年总统大选出谋略策的政治操作人士杰夫·韦弗也发表了类似言论。此前，纽约州成为第一个取消6月份总统初选的州。韦弗在桑德斯竞选团队发表的一份声明中说，特朗普“现在有了一个(推迟全国大选)的先例，这要感谢纽约州”。然而，尽管存在恐慌，这种情况几乎是不可能发生的。根据美国宪法，美国国会有权修改总统选举日期，而不是总统领导的行政部门。可以想象，国会可以通过修改法律，授权总统决定“举行选举的时间、地点和方式”，但这需要得到美国参众两院的批准。特朗普和共和党控制参议院，但众议院由民主党控制，众议院议长南希·佩洛西强烈反对特朗普，所以发生这种情况的可能性几乎为零。即使特朗普和国会推迟选举日期，他们也不可能无限期地这样做。宪法第20修正案规定，总统任期的结束日期为1月20日中午。因此，除非他在那之前如期连任，否则特朗普将在那一天下台。改变下一届任期的开始日期将需要一项宪法修正案，这一程序只有在参众两院三分之二的议员提出提案或三分之二的州立法机构要求召开制宪会议的情况下才会启动。一项新的修正案需要获得四分之三的州立法机构的批准。所有在1月之前完成。只有一项宪法修正案后来被各州废除，即1919年制定的禁止生产和销售酒的第18修正案。围绕推迟大选的激烈竞选言辞，掩盖了一个更实际的潜在政策争议。民主党领导人希望，在11月的选举中，邮寄选票能得到更广泛的使用。特朗普反对扩大邮寄选票的使用范围，认为邮寄投票容易出现欺诈现象。作为2.2万亿美元新冠病毒救助法案的一部分，国会为各州拨款4亿美元以支持邮寄投票和提前投票。由各州决定采用哪种投票方式。因此，不管社交媒体上流传着什么，也不管民主党人大肆宣扬什么，2020年美国总统大选仍将以某种方式向前推进。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946540804,"gmtCreate":1595930223308,"gmtModify":1704210293884,"author":{"id":"3510734554332894","authorId":"3510734554332894","name":"野兽教授","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6a2289b383ba13d6ffa2c18d0557ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510734554332894","authorIdStr":"3510734554332894"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>收割开始","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$收割开始","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943389772","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943953177,"gmtCreate":1594375342399,"gmtModify":1704205435247,"author":{"id":"3510734554332894","authorId":"3510734554332894","name":"野兽教授","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6a2289b383ba13d6ffa2c18d0557ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510734554332894","authorIdStr":"3510734554332894"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"会不会低开高走呢？盘前跌就调整了","listText":"会不会低开高走呢？盘前跌就调整了","text":"会不会低开高走呢？盘前跌就调整了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943953177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":949411488,"gmtCreate":1594293874944,"gmtModify":1704204975039,"author":{"id":"3510734554332894","authorId":"3510734554332894","name":"野兽教授","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6a2289b383ba13d6ffa2c18d0557ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510734554332894","authorIdStr":"3510734554332894"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又特么专家","listText":"又特么专家","text":"又特么专家","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/949411488","repostId":"1130339131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130339131","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1594264872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130339131?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-09 11:21","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"海通国际：下半年全球金融市场将进入“阴跌”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130339131","media":"海通国际宏观研究","summary":"当前资本市场表现和实体经济基本面严重脱节，资本市场的反弹有点过头了。","content":"<p>作者：孙明春</p>\n<p>新型冠状病毒肺炎这只「黑天鹅」还不知道要飞多久。</p>\n<p>在疫情的阴影之下，全球经济正在经历大萧条以来的艰难时刻。如何看待当前和下半年的全球经济形势？下半年主要经济体的政策取向可能是怎样的？下半年全球金融市场是否再现上半年一系列的大动荡？在2020年下半年开启的节点，新京报就这这些公众关注的问题采访了海通国际首席经济学家孙明春。</p>\n<p>孙明春认为，至少要到2022年，全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平，即回到2019年的水平。「从当前疫情防控和经济复苏形势看，很多国家在下半年也不得不继续出台财政纾困政策，与之配合的宽松货币政策也必须随之出台。但上半年很多国家、特别是美国，把子弹都打出去了，这些宽松政策的出台会面临巨大的约束。」</p>\n<p>对于下半年的全球经济风险，孙明春认为，最大的风险仍然是疫情。此外，他认为，在未来3到6个月会有越来越多的企业破产倒闭、发展中国家可能面临债务不可持续的问题、自然灾害以及其可能引发的高通胀风险，这些风险也都需要关注。</p>\n<p>3月下旬以来，美股在暴跌之后出现了V型反弹，道琼斯与标准普尔500指数几乎收复全部失地，而纳斯达克指数则创出历史新高。「当前资本市场表现和实体经济基本面严重脱节，资本市场的反弹有点过头了。」孙明春认为，不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性，下半年乃至稍微长一段时间全球金融市场进入阴跌状态。</p>\n<p>如何看待全球经济形势对中国经济的影响？孙明春认为，现在人民币在全球属于高配资产，预计下半年国际资本会通过债券通、QFII等渠道涌入中国，将十年期国债而非作为投资的首选。「这是因为目前中国经济仍处在下行周期，资本不会在经济下行的早期而是在下行周期的中后期去投资作为风险资产的股票。」</p>\n<p>「至少要到2022年 全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平」</p>\n<p><b>新京报：</b>如何看待当前以及下半年全球经济的复苏情况？</p>\n<p><b>孙明春：</b>从一季度数据可以看到，全球十大经济体有9个出现负增长，陷入衰退，其中美国经济下滑4.8%（环比折年率）。目前二季度的数据还没有出来，但相信二季度这9个经济体负增长的情况会更严重，全球经济现在处在深度衰退中。据亚特兰大联储的最新预测，二季度美国的实际GDP还将下滑45.5%（环比折年率）。</p>\n<p>全球经济何时能够复苏到疫情前的水平？在我看来，至少要到2022年，全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平，即回到2019年的水平。当然全球经济复苏的实际情况要看疫情的发展，也许全球经济的未来还可能会更坏。</p>\n<p>首先，疫情仍在全世界蔓延，中国、欧美等发达经济体较早深陷疫情的影响，当前巴西、俄罗斯、印度等新兴市场国家的疫情形势开始越来越严峻。在还没有找到有效的疫苗和有效的治疗手段之前，疫情的影响可能是多年的、长期的。在疫情得到有效的控制之前，我们没办法对全球经济的复苏做更高的期望。第二，全球经济体、至少发达国家的经济体现在完全依靠大规模财政货币刺激政策，以维持当前的经济运行。如果没有大规模的刺激政策，全世界经济会更差。第三，即便是疫情在相对短的时间内能够得到控制，但是由于疫情的波及面太广，全球200多个国家都受到了冲击，同时短暂的冲击又非常的大，导致了很多就业机会的失去了，很多人的收入出现了永久性的丧失。所以哪怕疫情结束以后，经济的复苏也很难在短期内回到疫情之前的水平。</p>\n<p>「下半年很多国家不得不出台宽松政策，但政策的出台会受到约束」</p>\n<p><b>新京报：</b>如何看待下半年全球经济体的宏观经济政策取向？</p>\n<p><b>孙明春：</b>上半年的时候为抗击疫情，全球大部分国家放弃财政货币纪律采取了大规模的刺激政策，但这些政策是为了纾困和救助，市场并无异议。但现在看，欧美、尤其是美国既低估了疫情的冲击，也低估了疫情的第二波冲击和经济的复苏难度，这些刺激政策太慷慨。以美国为例，在4月份，在失业人数增加三四千万人的情况下，美国家庭部门的收入还上涨了10%。</p>\n<p>从当前疫情防控和经济复苏形势看，很多国家在下半年也不得不继续出台财政纾困政策，配合财政政策的宽松货币政策也必须随之出台。预计下半年的财政纾困规模会小于上半年的规模，同时这些政策也面临遭遇资本市场怀疑其效果和可持续性的挑战。这就意味着，下半年用上半年同样的办法再实行第三轮、第四轮刺激计划时，资本市场、金融市场可能就不买账了，很多国家可能面临黔驴技穷的尴尬局面。总之，今年上半年很多国家、特别是美国，把子弹都打出去了，下半年很多国家不得不继续出台宽松的财政货币政策，但政策的出台会面临巨大的约束。</p>\n<p>相对其他经济体，今年上半年中国采取了相对克制、稳健的宏观经济政策，这样就为未来留足了空间——在今年下半年、甚至明年，如果疫情还未得到有效控制，我们仍有能力继续实行宽松的政策以救助企业和家庭。同时，我们的政策也能够防止出现新的风险。在全球大放水的背景下，中国克制稳健的宏观政策有助于稳定公众对于资产价格的预期，避免出现资产价格失控的局面。</p>\n<p>「未来3到6个月会有越来越多企业倒闭并引发连锁反应」</p>\n<p><b>新京报：</b>下半年全球经济哪些风险值得关注？</p>\n<p><b>孙明春：</b>下半年全球经济最大的风险仍然是疫情。这两天全球确诊的人数越来越多了，很显然疫情并未被有效控制住，反而进一步扩大了。在没有找到有效的疫苗和治疗手段之前，全球各国主要有两条路可以选择：第一个选择是采取中国这种严格隔离措施，第二选择是采取欧美一些国家尝试过的群体免疫。这两个选择虽然给经济带来的影响是不一样的，但都会是巨大的负面影响。</p>\n<p>第二个风险是，在未来3到6个月，会有越来越多的企业破产倒闭。为救助企业，各国采取大规模的刺激政策。但因为疫情的长期蔓延，企业家看不到曙光，不管政府给与多少支持，可能不得不做出裁员或者关门的选择。当然更坏的情况是，很多企业根本熬不到曙光的到来就已经倒闭了。企业破产、倒闭会带来一系列的连锁反应——失业率上升、家庭破产、银行持续坏账上升、金融体系遭受创伤等，这些都会在三季度末、四季度初显现出来。</p>\n<p>第三个风险是，发展中国家可能面临债务不可持续的问题。从目前疫情、经济和金融发展形势看，很多国家正在酝酿第三轮、第四轮的扩张政策，但这会使得很多新兴经济体可能面临债务不可持续的问题。对于美国、欧洲、日本这些发达经济体来说，它们的货币属于强货币，可以通过大规模的财政货币刺激政策来应对疫情冲击，但这一做法并不适合全世界。除了这几个发达经济体，全世界还有差不多200个发展中国家。其中，许多经济体政府本已债台高筑，国债可持续性本已堪忧，不得不依赖中央银行大规模扩张资产负债表来支持，直接或间接地形成财政赤字货币化的事实。这些国家是不可能无限制地去实行宽松的财政政策，因为这会使得这些国家的货币大幅贬值，也会使得一些发展中国家面临主权债务、企业债务大幅违约的问题。一旦发展中国家出现大面积债务违约问题，就会带来一系列的连锁反应——作为债权人或投资者的美国金融机构和跨国公司也必然被殃及，这对本已脆弱的美国经济与金融体系来说无疑是雪上加霜。</p>\n<p>第四个风险是自然灾害以及其可能引发的高通胀风险。在当前经济形势下，未来一段时间经济大概率应该处于通缩局面，似乎不必担心通胀的到来。但目前疫情在巴西、俄罗斯、印度等新兴经济体国家的形势越来越严峻，这些国家本身是农产品、能源、原材料出口大国，一旦它们的供应出现了问题，都会给全球市场带来巨大影响。加上在一些地区出现的蝗灾，如果往年突如其来的自然灾害再次席卷而来，或许会给本来已经处于紧绷状态的全球经济带来致命一击。在世界各国抗击疫情，其应对突发事件的能力会被大幅度削弱的情况下，这些天灾或许会成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。这些风险事件是小概率事件，但一旦发生，会对通胀产生巨大的影响——一旦高通胀回归，就会立即给「无限量宽」政策画上句号，经济陷入滞胀局面。</p>\n<p>「不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性」</p>\n<p><b>新京报：</b>如何看待下半年的金融市场表现，是否会再现上半年一系列的大动荡？</p>\n<p><b>孙明春：</b>上半年突然而至的疫情导致市场流动性出现危机，各国央行不得不采用量化宽松政策来解决这一危机。从这个意义上来讲，下半年不会出现上半年那样意想不到的流动性危机。但不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性，下半年乃至稍微长一段时间全球金融市场可能进入阴跌状态。</p>\n<p>我们可以看到，3月下旬以来，美股在暴跌之后出现了V型反弹，道琼斯与标准普尔500指数几乎收复全部失地，而纳斯达克指数则创出历史新高。市场的反弹具有一定的道理，这背后既反映了投资者对美国经济重启与复苏的期望，更反映了美联储「无限量宽」政策给投资者的激励。很多人提到说，「不要和美联储作对」。</p>\n<p>但在我看来看，实际情况并非真的如此——当前资本市场表现和实体经济基本面严重脱节，资本市场的反弹有点过头了。</p>\n<p>首先，我们至今没有找到有效的疫苗和治疗方案，并未看到疫情防控根本好转的曙光。其次，即使疫情结束了，全球经济一时半会不会立刻得以修复。这是因为疫情给全球经济带来了很多的内伤，虽然这些内伤还没有显现出来，但已经形成、正在累积。可能在未来半年甚至一两年的时间内，待潮水退去，疫情给全球经济带来的伤害会明显显现出来。届时坏消息会一环扣一环地释放出来——会有企业大规模破产，金融机构的坏账随之上升、尤其是一些重要的系统性金融机构出现严重的坏账，甚至很难继续撑下去，这些都会对市场带来负面打击。如果说疫情给上半年的全球经济带来的冲击是流动性冲击，下半年这种冲击主要表现为金融体系实质性违约，也许大家的希望会一点点落空。</p>\n<p>美联储最终是没有办法挡住经济的下滑，疫情带来的次生灾害风险会逐渐显现出来。市场最终会向经济低头，也会让投资者认识到疫情带来的冲击比我们想要的要大很多。因此，未来全球金融市场、尤其美国金融市场的走势可能呈现出「反弹、掉下来、再反弹，最终不断往下走」的趋势。在未来半年到一两年时间内，经济会不断释放坏消息，金融市场的波动性主要取决于实体经济和金融体系真实的坏消息的释放，接下来全球金融市场可能进入阴跌的状态。具体市场何时出现回调，我不能给出确切的答案，也许回调已经开始了。</p>\n<p>「下半年中国国债会成为国际资本投资首选」</p>\n<p><b>新京报：</b>下半年全球经济形势会对中国经济带来哪些影响？</p>\n<p><b>孙明春：</b>首先，从对实体经济影响看。3月疫情得到有效控制以来，中国经济正在复苏中。但全球经济形势依然较差，中国的外贸出口肯定会受到影响，预计下半年出口的数据会更差。同时，疫情在全球蔓延，很多原材料、能源、农产品出口国的供应链受影响，中国经济的海外供应也会受到一定的挑战。</p>\n<p>第二，从外部环境对汇率的影响看，人民币不存在大幅贬值的基础。从经济基本面看，当前中国经济的复苏要比大部分国家好很多，而且中国保持着健康的债务水平、还有很多的国有资产可以动用。因此，人民币汇率甚至有可能升值。</p>\n<p>第三，从资产配置角度看，现在人民币在全球属于高配资产，下半年国际资本会涌入中国。当然，人民币资产又分为安全资产、风险资产。其中，安全资产包括国债、国开债等。中国的国债没有风险，而且十年期国债收益率达到百分之二以上，预计下半年国际资本会通过债券通、QFII等渠道涌入中国，而将十年期国债作为投资的首选。作为风险资产的股票不会成为国际资本投资的首选，这是因为目前中国经济仍处在下行周期，资本不会在经济下行的早期而是在下行周期的中后期去投资风险资产。不过，还需要补充的是，即使是作为风险资产的股票，也包括了一些低风险的资产，国际资本在投资的时候也会根据资产的类别、具体资产隐含的风险而去做选择。</p>\n<p>最后，从长远看，人民币国际化是大势所趋。今年3月份开始的「无限量宽」很可能会加剧海外投资者对美元和美元资产的担忧，进一步削弱美元的信用，使美元在国际货币体系的支柱地位出现进一步的松动。疫情最终导致全球经济格局、各国财政负担及央行资产负债表出现巨大变化。在这个过程中，如果中国经济能够继续保持稳健成长，国际收支基本平衡，对外开放日益深化，企业与金融机构的国际竞争力不断增强，届时，完全存在一种可能，即市场将主动推动人民币进一步国际化，令人民币在国际货币体系中扮演更重要的角色。</p>","source":"lsy1594264741347","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n海通国际：下半年全球金融市场将进入“阴跌”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-09 11:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/388355><strong>海通国际宏观研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：孙明春\n新型冠状病毒肺炎这只「黑天鹅」还不知道要飞多久。\n在疫情的阴影之下，全球经济正在经历大萧条以来的艰难时刻。如何看待当前和下半年的全球经济形势？下半年主要经济体的政策取向可能是怎样的？下半年全球金融市场是否再现上半年一系列的大动荡？在2020年下半年开启的节点，新京报就这这些公众关注的问题采访了海通国际首席经济学家孙明春。\n孙明春认为，至少要到2022年，全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/388355\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144fcf63ccaceb7d59c371695c704fb3","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数","HSI":"恒生指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/388355","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130339131","content_text":"作者：孙明春\n新型冠状病毒肺炎这只「黑天鹅」还不知道要飞多久。\n在疫情的阴影之下，全球经济正在经历大萧条以来的艰难时刻。如何看待当前和下半年的全球经济形势？下半年主要经济体的政策取向可能是怎样的？下半年全球金融市场是否再现上半年一系列的大动荡？在2020年下半年开启的节点，新京报就这这些公众关注的问题采访了海通国际首席经济学家孙明春。\n孙明春认为，至少要到2022年，全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平，即回到2019年的水平。「从当前疫情防控和经济复苏形势看，很多国家在下半年也不得不继续出台财政纾困政策，与之配合的宽松货币政策也必须随之出台。但上半年很多国家、特别是美国，把子弹都打出去了，这些宽松政策的出台会面临巨大的约束。」\n对于下半年的全球经济风险，孙明春认为，最大的风险仍然是疫情。此外，他认为，在未来3到6个月会有越来越多的企业破产倒闭、发展中国家可能面临债务不可持续的问题、自然灾害以及其可能引发的高通胀风险，这些风险也都需要关注。\n3月下旬以来，美股在暴跌之后出现了V型反弹，道琼斯与标准普尔500指数几乎收复全部失地，而纳斯达克指数则创出历史新高。「当前资本市场表现和实体经济基本面严重脱节，资本市场的反弹有点过头了。」孙明春认为，不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性，下半年乃至稍微长一段时间全球金融市场进入阴跌状态。\n如何看待全球经济形势对中国经济的影响？孙明春认为，现在人民币在全球属于高配资产，预计下半年国际资本会通过债券通、QFII等渠道涌入中国，将十年期国债而非作为投资的首选。「这是因为目前中国经济仍处在下行周期，资本不会在经济下行的早期而是在下行周期的中后期去投资作为风险资产的股票。」\n「至少要到2022年 全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平」\n新京报：如何看待当前以及下半年全球经济的复苏情况？\n孙明春：从一季度数据可以看到，全球十大经济体有9个出现负增长，陷入衰退，其中美国经济下滑4.8%（环比折年率）。目前二季度的数据还没有出来，但相信二季度这9个经济体负增长的情况会更严重，全球经济现在处在深度衰退中。据亚特兰大联储的最新预测，二季度美国的实际GDP还将下滑45.5%（环比折年率）。\n全球经济何时能够复苏到疫情前的水平？在我看来，至少要到2022年，全球经济才有可能回到疫情前的水平，即回到2019年的水平。当然全球经济复苏的实际情况要看疫情的发展，也许全球经济的未来还可能会更坏。\n首先，疫情仍在全世界蔓延，中国、欧美等发达经济体较早深陷疫情的影响，当前巴西、俄罗斯、印度等新兴市场国家的疫情形势开始越来越严峻。在还没有找到有效的疫苗和有效的治疗手段之前，疫情的影响可能是多年的、长期的。在疫情得到有效的控制之前，我们没办法对全球经济的复苏做更高的期望。第二，全球经济体、至少发达国家的经济体现在完全依靠大规模财政货币刺激政策，以维持当前的经济运行。如果没有大规模的刺激政策，全世界经济会更差。第三，即便是疫情在相对短的时间内能够得到控制，但是由于疫情的波及面太广，全球200多个国家都受到了冲击，同时短暂的冲击又非常的大，导致了很多就业机会的失去了，很多人的收入出现了永久性的丧失。所以哪怕疫情结束以后，经济的复苏也很难在短期内回到疫情之前的水平。\n「下半年很多国家不得不出台宽松政策，但政策的出台会受到约束」\n新京报：如何看待下半年全球经济体的宏观经济政策取向？\n孙明春：上半年的时候为抗击疫情，全球大部分国家放弃财政货币纪律采取了大规模的刺激政策，但这些政策是为了纾困和救助，市场并无异议。但现在看，欧美、尤其是美国既低估了疫情的冲击，也低估了疫情的第二波冲击和经济的复苏难度，这些刺激政策太慷慨。以美国为例，在4月份，在失业人数增加三四千万人的情况下，美国家庭部门的收入还上涨了10%。\n从当前疫情防控和经济复苏形势看，很多国家在下半年也不得不继续出台财政纾困政策，配合财政政策的宽松货币政策也必须随之出台。预计下半年的财政纾困规模会小于上半年的规模，同时这些政策也面临遭遇资本市场怀疑其效果和可持续性的挑战。这就意味着，下半年用上半年同样的办法再实行第三轮、第四轮刺激计划时，资本市场、金融市场可能就不买账了，很多国家可能面临黔驴技穷的尴尬局面。总之，今年上半年很多国家、特别是美国，把子弹都打出去了，下半年很多国家不得不继续出台宽松的财政货币政策，但政策的出台会面临巨大的约束。\n相对其他经济体，今年上半年中国采取了相对克制、稳健的宏观经济政策，这样就为未来留足了空间——在今年下半年、甚至明年，如果疫情还未得到有效控制，我们仍有能力继续实行宽松的政策以救助企业和家庭。同时，我们的政策也能够防止出现新的风险。在全球大放水的背景下，中国克制稳健的宏观政策有助于稳定公众对于资产价格的预期，避免出现资产价格失控的局面。\n「未来3到6个月会有越来越多企业倒闭并引发连锁反应」\n新京报：下半年全球经济哪些风险值得关注？\n孙明春：下半年全球经济最大的风险仍然是疫情。这两天全球确诊的人数越来越多了，很显然疫情并未被有效控制住，反而进一步扩大了。在没有找到有效的疫苗和治疗手段之前，全球各国主要有两条路可以选择：第一个选择是采取中国这种严格隔离措施，第二选择是采取欧美一些国家尝试过的群体免疫。这两个选择虽然给经济带来的影响是不一样的，但都会是巨大的负面影响。\n第二个风险是，在未来3到6个月，会有越来越多的企业破产倒闭。为救助企业，各国采取大规模的刺激政策。但因为疫情的长期蔓延，企业家看不到曙光，不管政府给与多少支持，可能不得不做出裁员或者关门的选择。当然更坏的情况是，很多企业根本熬不到曙光的到来就已经倒闭了。企业破产、倒闭会带来一系列的连锁反应——失业率上升、家庭破产、银行持续坏账上升、金融体系遭受创伤等，这些都会在三季度末、四季度初显现出来。\n第三个风险是，发展中国家可能面临债务不可持续的问题。从目前疫情、经济和金融发展形势看，很多国家正在酝酿第三轮、第四轮的扩张政策，但这会使得很多新兴经济体可能面临债务不可持续的问题。对于美国、欧洲、日本这些发达经济体来说，它们的货币属于强货币，可以通过大规模的财政货币刺激政策来应对疫情冲击，但这一做法并不适合全世界。除了这几个发达经济体，全世界还有差不多200个发展中国家。其中，许多经济体政府本已债台高筑，国债可持续性本已堪忧，不得不依赖中央银行大规模扩张资产负债表来支持，直接或间接地形成财政赤字货币化的事实。这些国家是不可能无限制地去实行宽松的财政政策，因为这会使得这些国家的货币大幅贬值，也会使得一些发展中国家面临主权债务、企业债务大幅违约的问题。一旦发展中国家出现大面积债务违约问题，就会带来一系列的连锁反应——作为债权人或投资者的美国金融机构和跨国公司也必然被殃及，这对本已脆弱的美国经济与金融体系来说无疑是雪上加霜。\n第四个风险是自然灾害以及其可能引发的高通胀风险。在当前经济形势下，未来一段时间经济大概率应该处于通缩局面，似乎不必担心通胀的到来。但目前疫情在巴西、俄罗斯、印度等新兴经济体国家的形势越来越严峻，这些国家本身是农产品、能源、原材料出口大国，一旦它们的供应出现了问题，都会给全球市场带来巨大影响。加上在一些地区出现的蝗灾，如果往年突如其来的自然灾害再次席卷而来，或许会给本来已经处于紧绷状态的全球经济带来致命一击。在世界各国抗击疫情，其应对突发事件的能力会被大幅度削弱的情况下，这些天灾或许会成为压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。这些风险事件是小概率事件，但一旦发生，会对通胀产生巨大的影响——一旦高通胀回归，就会立即给「无限量宽」政策画上句号，经济陷入滞胀局面。\n「不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性」\n新京报：如何看待下半年的金融市场表现，是否会再现上半年一系列的大动荡？\n孙明春：上半年突然而至的疫情导致市场流动性出现危机，各国央行不得不采用量化宽松政策来解决这一危机。从这个意义上来讲，下半年不会出现上半年那样意想不到的流动性危机。但不排除下半年出现类似上半年金融市场动荡的可能性，下半年乃至稍微长一段时间全球金融市场可能进入阴跌状态。\n我们可以看到，3月下旬以来，美股在暴跌之后出现了V型反弹，道琼斯与标准普尔500指数几乎收复全部失地，而纳斯达克指数则创出历史新高。市场的反弹具有一定的道理，这背后既反映了投资者对美国经济重启与复苏的期望，更反映了美联储「无限量宽」政策给投资者的激励。很多人提到说，「不要和美联储作对」。\n但在我看来看，实际情况并非真的如此——当前资本市场表现和实体经济基本面严重脱节，资本市场的反弹有点过头了。\n首先，我们至今没有找到有效的疫苗和治疗方案，并未看到疫情防控根本好转的曙光。其次，即使疫情结束了，全球经济一时半会不会立刻得以修复。这是因为疫情给全球经济带来了很多的内伤，虽然这些内伤还没有显现出来，但已经形成、正在累积。可能在未来半年甚至一两年的时间内，待潮水退去，疫情给全球经济带来的伤害会明显显现出来。届时坏消息会一环扣一环地释放出来——会有企业大规模破产，金融机构的坏账随之上升、尤其是一些重要的系统性金融机构出现严重的坏账，甚至很难继续撑下去，这些都会对市场带来负面打击。如果说疫情给上半年的全球经济带来的冲击是流动性冲击，下半年这种冲击主要表现为金融体系实质性违约，也许大家的希望会一点点落空。\n美联储最终是没有办法挡住经济的下滑，疫情带来的次生灾害风险会逐渐显现出来。市场最终会向经济低头，也会让投资者认识到疫情带来的冲击比我们想要的要大很多。因此，未来全球金融市场、尤其美国金融市场的走势可能呈现出「反弹、掉下来、再反弹，最终不断往下走」的趋势。在未来半年到一两年时间内，经济会不断释放坏消息，金融市场的波动性主要取决于实体经济和金融体系真实的坏消息的释放，接下来全球金融市场可能进入阴跌的状态。具体市场何时出现回调，我不能给出确切的答案，也许回调已经开始了。\n「下半年中国国债会成为国际资本投资首选」\n新京报：下半年全球经济形势会对中国经济带来哪些影响？\n孙明春：首先，从对实体经济影响看。3月疫情得到有效控制以来，中国经济正在复苏中。但全球经济形势依然较差，中国的外贸出口肯定会受到影响，预计下半年出口的数据会更差。同时，疫情在全球蔓延，很多原材料、能源、农产品出口国的供应链受影响，中国经济的海外供应也会受到一定的挑战。\n第二，从外部环境对汇率的影响看，人民币不存在大幅贬值的基础。从经济基本面看，当前中国经济的复苏要比大部分国家好很多，而且中国保持着健康的债务水平、还有很多的国有资产可以动用。因此，人民币汇率甚至有可能升值。\n第三，从资产配置角度看，现在人民币在全球属于高配资产，下半年国际资本会涌入中国。当然，人民币资产又分为安全资产、风险资产。其中，安全资产包括国债、国开债等。中国的国债没有风险，而且十年期国债收益率达到百分之二以上，预计下半年国际资本会通过债券通、QFII等渠道涌入中国，而将十年期国债作为投资的首选。作为风险资产的股票不会成为国际资本投资的首选，这是因为目前中国经济仍处在下行周期，资本不会在经济下行的早期而是在下行周期的中后期去投资风险资产。不过，还需要补充的是，即使是作为风险资产的股票，也包括了一些低风险的资产，国际资本在投资的时候也会根据资产的类别、具体资产隐含的风险而去做选择。\n最后，从长远看，人民币国际化是大势所趋。今年3月份开始的「无限量宽」很可能会加剧海外投资者对美元和美元资产的担忧，进一步削弱美元的信用，使美元在国际货币体系的支柱地位出现进一步的松动。疫情最终导致全球经济格局、各国财政负担及央行资产负债表出现巨大变化。在这个过程中，如果中国经济能够继续保持稳健成长，国际收支基本平衡，对外开放日益深化，企业与金融机构的国际竞争力不断增强，届时，完全存在一种可能，即市场将主动推动人民币进一步国际化，令人民币在国际货币体系中扮演更重要的角色。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1788,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955606401,"gmtCreate":1592387792103,"gmtModify":1704199108344,"author":{"id":"3510734554332894","authorId":"3510734554332894","name":"野兽教授","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a6a2289b383ba13d6ffa2c18d0557ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510734554332894","authorIdStr":"3510734554332894"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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