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待收割的小韭菜
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小布吉岛
2020-07-27
鬼知道发什么了什么
微信停止服务、马云被传唤,印度到底发生了什么?
小布吉岛
2020-07-27
真的么
[可爱]
广发:海外资产或将由共振期转向分化期
小布吉岛
2020-06-19
[开心]
@寂小桦:
$拼多多(PDD)$
我之前写过空拼多多的逻辑,大规模补贴和砸钱,大规模的广告获取用户,但是一旦停止补贴呢?不敢想象!所以拼多多目前就是竭尽所有尽量把用户做起来,然后期待携用户以令(吸引)品牌入驻的效果,目前百亿补贴主要是为了洗超低质量的品牌形象以及吸引一些都市用户,而且的确效果不错,非常多的用户为了大额折扣“赌”拼多多不敢卖二手或者次货,但是补贴终有结束的那一天,为了安全感,用户还是会离开回到京东和天猫的怀抱。目前阿里和京东坐看拼多多起来不去强烈狙击估计也是因为拼多多帮助淘宝和京东教育培养新的用户,拼多多长尾比不过淘宝,更别提服饰美妆去冲击天猫了,大家电,图书,数码产品没有摸到京东的屁股,商超业务基本也是天猫超市和京东超市在玩,估计这也是三家大规模正面拼杀的缘故把。另外,羡慕赚到钱的朋友们,还有人像我一样70开始空的吗?拼多多股价涨到100,我估计还可以接受,用钱为自己的认知投票把!还有和我一样的空头吗?报个到!
小布吉岛
2020-06-09
我也就跟着大神们买,没啥好用的策略
小布吉岛
2020-04-27
为什么这么多造假的?很迷//
@价值投资为王
:投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱
$达美航空(DAL)$
$西南航空(LUV)$
@价值投资为王:投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱
$达美航空(DAL)$
$西南航空(LUV)$
小布吉岛
2020-04-27
雅诗兰黛小棕瓶实际上并不添加某一核心成分,但却一直利用核心成分宣传的事情,就这样不了了之了么?
@美股研究社:全球经济“栽跟头”,这七只旅游股谁翻身最快?
小布吉岛
2020-04-27
丸美真的好用么?
库存增长异常 丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?
小布吉岛
2020-03-17
ttps://www.laohu8.com/post/write
[难过][可爱][傲娇][生气]@
@eb
粉丝 v
$安捷伦科技(A)$
www.baidu.comhttps://www.laohu8.com/post/writehttps://www.laohu8.com/post/964553985https://www.laohu8.com/post/964553985https://www.laohu8.com/post/913165059
ttps://www.laohu8.com/post/write
小布吉岛
2020-03-17
加油赚钱[财迷][财迷][财迷][财迷]
小布吉岛
2020-03-17
[得意][得意][得意][得意]赚钱!
小布吉岛
2020-03-17
[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] 值得一看
@大财小财都是钱:8天经历了巴菲特的一生
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
这是一个标题N/M
问题:1、草稿箱部分在PC端如何展示?方案一:不展示右侧草稿箱,直接沿用现有逻辑,取消直接保存为草稿,再次进入显示草稿内容;只有内容发布成功之后,页面草稿才清空方案二:留出草稿箱展示位2、引用起来的内容,在详情页如何展示?与转发帖引用部分的区别 这是手写的一句话,但设置了“引用”的格式,这部分会如何展示? 3、PC端需要支持快捷键、且快捷键方式需要与发帖页规定的一致4、整个PC端需要支持表情的展示:资讯页面、个股页面、消息中心5、插入K线图的功能有问题6、封面预览图、正文预览图需要更改为PC端对应的样式7、是否需要添加主题的那个页面?8、帖子发布成功后,是否直接跳转到关注Tab下?会有已审核未发布的时间差9、短帖、长帖中未发布的内容都保存至草稿箱;长帖页面默认打开最近保存的一条草稿短帖页面
这是一个标题N/M
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
选择三图,设置两张封面
选选择三图,设置两张封面选择三图,设置两张封面选择三图,设置两张封面选择三图,设置两张封面选择三图,设置两张封面
选择三图,设置两张封面
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
选择三图,只设置1张封面
选择三图,只设置1张封面选择三图,只设置1张封面选择三图,只设置1张封面选择三图,只设置1张封面选择三图,只设置1张封面
选择三图,只设置1张封面
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
选择了三图,不设置封面
选择了三图,不设置封面选择了三图,不设置封面选择了三图,不设置封面选择了三图,不设置封面选择了三图,不设置封面
选择了三图,不设置封面
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
这是一个标题
选择了单图,却未设置封面选择了单图这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分这是内容部分
这是一个标题
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
请填写标题
请填写标题请填写标题请填写标题请填写标题vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv
请填写标题
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
这是一个标题
二手房h是 v 说AA方式 v$@[惊讶$@$@]@@ sav1223 发擦 v 人 撒风吹草动删除 v 地方
$平安银行(000001)$
$$
这是一个标题
小布吉岛
2020-03-12
真不知道该怎么写标题
没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了没钱了
真不知道该怎么写标题
小布吉岛
2020-03-10
我的交易策略见下图,哈哈哈哈
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:15","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"微信停止服务、马云被传唤,印度到底发生了什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106296477","media":"中国基金报","summary":"当地时间7月25日,微信正式限制其印度用户发送和接受消息。","content":"<div>\n<p>中国互联网企业出海之路,再次受到阻碍。不止TikTok,腾讯也只能认栽了,微信正式停止服务印度用户。\n微信停止服务印度用户!\n印度政府宣布封禁59款中国应用后,诸如Tiktok等热门应用被完全屏蔽,无法下载也无法继续使用,但微信的现有用户仍可以接收和发送消息。然而情况很快发生变化。\n多位微信印度用户透露,在使用微信时,他们不断被强制登出,且无法重新登录,使用VPN时也依然会被登出。\n\n从目前反馈的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>微信停止服务、马云被传唤,印度到底发生了什么?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n微信停止服务、马云被传唤,印度到底发生了什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2020-07-27 11:15 北京时间 <strong>中国基金报</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国互联网企业出海之路,再次受到阻碍。不止TikTok,腾讯也只能认栽了,微信正式停止服务印度用户。\n微信停止服务印度用户!\n印度政府宣布封禁59款中国应用后,诸如Tiktok等热门应用被完全屏蔽,无法下载也无法继续使用,但微信的现有用户仍可以接收和发送消息。然而情况很快发生变化。\n多位微信印度用户透露,在使用微信时,他们不断被强制登出,且无法重新登录,使用VPN时也依然会被登出。\n\n从目前反馈的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4303e9d332cded8bff4ae84c08af624","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","00700":"腾讯控股","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106296477","content_text":"中国互联网企业出海之路,再次受到阻碍。不止TikTok,腾讯也只能认栽了,微信正式停止服务印度用户。\n微信停止服务印度用户!\n印度政府宣布封禁59款中国应用后,诸如Tiktok等热门应用被完全屏蔽,无法下载也无法继续使用,但微信的现有用户仍可以接收和发送消息。然而情况很快发生变化。\n多位微信印度用户透露,在使用微信时,他们不断被强制登出,且无法重新登录,使用VPN时也依然会被登出。\n\n从目前反馈的消息看,受影响的微信用户均是用印度本地号码注册,用中国手机号注册的微信仍能正常使用。种种迹象显示,微信将印度手机号用户的微信停用,应是出于规避法律风险的考虑,主动采用的技术手段。\n印度微信用户相继反应,他们在使用微信时不断被强制登出。据印度科技媒体Entrackr报道,当地时间7月25日,微信正式限制其印度用户发送和接受消息。\n截至目前,微信印度官方未对此事置评。\n\n据报道,在账号被强制登出时,用户会收到一条来自微信官方团队的信息,上面写道:\n“根据印度法律,我们现在不能为您提供微信服务。我们重视每一个用户,数据安全和隐私对我们来说是最重要的。我们正在与相关部门交涉,希望能够在未来恢复服务。”\n\n报道指出,对微信用户的限制将成为在印华人面临的一大问题,因为他们在很大程度上依赖微信进行日常和商业交流。\n一位居住在新德里卫星城古鲁格拉姆的中国人表示:“我们没有受到对TikTok或其他应用程序禁令的影响,但没有微信会妨碍我们在印度的社交和专业交流。由于我们不使用电子邮件进行官方交流,我们与中国总部的联系已经被切断。”\n此外,Entrackr援引报道指出,印度政府计划封禁更多,尤其是源自中国的应用程序。\n马云被印度法院传唤?\n跟印度相关的还有另外一位大佬,马云。\n7月26日下午,据媒体报道称,落款日期为7月20日的法庭文件显示,阿里巴巴旗下UC Web前雇员普什潘德拉·辛格·帕玛(Pushpandra Singh Parmar)称,自己因反对公司应用程序中的虚假新闻而被错误解雇。\n而印度首都新德里卫星城古鲁格拉姆一家地方法院民事法官索尼娅·谢克德(Sonia Sheokand)已向阿里巴巴、阿里巴巴创始人马云等十几位人士或公司发出传票,要求他们在7月29日出庭或通过律师出庭。\n对此,阿里巴巴市场公关委员会主席王帅在朋友圈幽默留言,表示UC印度公司正按流程处理,但至于马云本人知不知道,王帅称:“我也不清楚。他退休后确实越来越难找了……我都找了一天了……今晚再去HHB酒吧找找看啊。”\n\n王帅还呼吁广大网友一起帮忙“寻人”:“HHB酒吧现在全国开了好几个啊……大家一起帮帮忙(找找)”。印度前雇员起诉消息曝出后,引来了大量网友评论:“关马云啥事?”、“印度司法是不是在开玩笑。亦有不少网友以马云的口吻调侃称:“你叫我去我就去?”\n据熟悉印度法律的业界人士解释称,印度法律中,起诉人可以指定任何人作为被告,但是需要法院最终定夺是否可以被纳入范围。如果印度法院不认为针对被告的起诉具有正当理由,则不会向其发出传票。\n印度最近动作不断\n此前6月29日,印度电子信息技术部曾以安全问题为由宣布禁止TikTok、微信、茄子快传、UC浏览器、QQ、快手和美图等在内的59款中国应用。原因是,印度认为这些App损害印度主权和完整、印度国防、国家安全和公共秩序。\n针对印度禁用59款App的情况,6月30日,外交部发言人赵立坚在例行记者会上称,“中方对印方有关公告表示强烈关注,正在了解核实情况”,中国政府一贯要求中国企业在遵守国际规则和当地法律法规的基础上,开展对外合作。印度政府有责任根据市场原则,维护包括中国企业在内的国际投资者的合法权益。中印两国在务实领域的合作,是互利共赢的,这种合作格局受到人为损害,实际上并不符合印方自己的利益。\n美国国务卿蓬佩奥在近期举行的“印度创意峰会”上表示,印度有机会将供应链从中国迁移出来,减少在某些领域对中国公司的依赖,比如电信、医疗物资等。印度有条件这样做,因为它得到了世界许多国家的信任,包括美国。\n印度则呼吁美国企业增加对印度的科技、能源、国防以及航天等领域的投资。据日本《富士产经商报》7月24日报道,美国企业在加快对印度投资。在过去数周内,谷歌、脸书陆续宣布对印度最大的通信公司“吉奥平台”数字服务公司出资。\n报道还表示,印度有丰富的劳动力资源,有10亿人规模的手机市场,只有约50%的手机用户使用智能手机,具有很大的市场潜力。美国苹果、韩国三星电子和中国小米等企业对印度市场抱有很大期待,原因正在于此。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946871048,"gmtCreate":1595819689884,"gmtModify":1704209910165,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真的么<a>[可爱]</a>","listText":"真的么<a>[可爱]</a>","text":"真的么[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946871048","repostId":"2054893910","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2054893910","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1595802000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2054893910?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-27 06:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"广发:海外资产或将由共振期转向分化期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2054893910","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国经济研究局(NBER)将美国经济划分为:早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)和衰退...","content":"<html><body><article>\n<p><strong>本文来自 微信公众号“ 静观金融”,作者:张静静。</strong></p><p>报告摘要</p><p><strong>此前海外各类资产同涨同跌格局并非由经济因素定价。</strong></p><p>经济周期与大类资产轮动的常规逻辑。经济可划分为早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)及衰退期(Recession)四个阶段。一般情况下,经济早周期股票是最优资产;经济中周期最优资产是大宗;经济晚周期黄金有明显的相对收益;经济衰退期利率债为最佳标的。经典的美林时钟也是在解释大类资产轮动的宏观逻辑。也就是说,商品和债券应该站在经济四象限的“对立面”;股票跟黄金也应该站在“对立面”。</p><p>3月以来海外各类资产同涨同跌并非由经济因素定价。3月中旬美股、美债、黄金、商品齐跌;3月23日-7月24日上述四类资产同涨。单纯套用经济周期下大类资产轮动框架,各类资产的同跌同涨反映了诸多矛盾。逆向思维,3月以来各类资产表现大概率是非经济因素驱动的结果。</p><p>3月以来海外定价逻辑:信用环境决定β,基本面因素决定α。美股、黄金、伦铜等众多资产在3-5月的走势均与美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数高度负相关,表明3月各类资产同跌反映的是信用环境紧张、随后各类资产齐涨则与信用条件改善有关。此间,基本面因素则影响各类资产的相对表现,也即决定了资产的α。过去数月WTI原油价格与标普500指数的比值与全球制造业PMI同趋势、伦铜价格与标普500指数的比值则大致与中国制造业PMI同趋势。当然,我们并不能单纯认为制造业PMI波动反映的需求端变化决定了商品价格的相对表现,毕竟此间还有供给因素的影响,但是铜、油等商品相对美股的表现确实反映了基本面因素。此外,美国政府杠杆率则是当前美债走势的核心矛盾。</p><p><strong>两指标表明海外资产共振期已经基本结束。</strong></p><p>三比价接近卫生事件前水平,金融条件驱动各类资产共振期已近尾声。在极端的流动性环境下,黄金的波动会远小于风险资产。3月全球流动性紧张,黄金相对风险资产的比价也将大幅攀升;4月全球流动性缓和,黄金相对表现趋弱。目前金银比、金油比及金铜比分别达到或接近卫生事件暴发前水平,表明信用环境(金融条件)触发的海外资产的共振阶段大概率已经接近尾声。</p><p>美复工红利消失,Risk-on情绪将降温,风险资产亦将分化。6月初美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>经济意外指数由负转正,随后一骑绝尘大幅攀升,表明复工红利推动下美国经济数据一直处于“惊喜期”。这种“惊喜”也令市场Risk-on情绪不断升温,成为风险资产同步高歌的情绪动力。7月17日以来美国花旗经济意外指数拐头回落,大抵说明复工红利消失,美国经济数据已经进入“平淡期”,Risk-on情绪或将降温。往后看,风险资产也将面临走势分化。</p><p><strong>关注美国第二轮纾困法案和OPEC+供给变化。</strong></p><p>美债暂由联储定价,成为最稳定资产。受美国政府杠杆率大幅攀升约束,美债暂时不再市场化,而由美联储定价。今明两年10年期美债收益率或将始终低于1%。</p><p>美国复工红利消失;卫生事件导致美国乃至全球企业加速违约。7月18日当周美国初请失业金人数反弹,为4月以来首次,表明美国复工红利大概率已经消失。此外,7月前3周美国企业违约数为256起、去年同期135期;全球违约数为391起、去年同期195起。历次经济衰退中,企业违约率与破产率飙升都发生在经济衰退后期到复苏初期,换言之Q3-Q4美国乃至全球企业违约率仍处上升期,并将约束企业资本开支、就业以及经济复苏的斜率。假若未来一段时间未能落地更多经济刺激政策,则风险资产或将进入波动加剧期。</p><p>美第二轮援助法案能否在未来两周落地直接影响大选前美股表现。8月7日后美国国会将休会一个月并且薪资保障计划等援助项目将于8月8日结束,因此未来两周能否落地第二轮纾困计划对美国大选前的经济前景乃至美股表现至关重要。目前看,7月23-24日美国参议院推动第二轮纾困法案取得明显进展。</p><p>OPEC+将于8月起减少减产规模,动态供给或将约束原油价格。6月中旬以来,WTI原油价格始终徘徊在40美元/桶附近,而40美元/桶刚好是页岩油盈亏平衡点。该位置已引发OPEC+调整供给策略。7月15日会议上OPEC+成员国一致同意自8月开始缩减OPEC+国家减产规模。5月1日OPEC+落地减产计划奠定了5-6月国际原油价格的上行趋势。相应地,8月1日OPEC+减少减产规模也可能会加剧国际油价的波动。维持下半年WTI原油价格在30-45美元/桶区间运行的预期。其他国际定价商品情形类似。</p><p>分散风险诉求下境外投资者或将持续增配黄金。目前标普500指数市盈率已接近历史最高水平,但由于美债收益率处于历史最低水平,难以判断美股估值是否合理,只是风险肯定在不断积累。分散风险的诉求下,黄金、美国住宅型Reits等产品将受到青睐。近期全球最大黄金ETF的增仓速率为美联储实施QE1以来最快,大概率就是美联储实践收益率曲线管理政策及分散风险诉求的结果。</p><p>一、此前海外各类资产同涨同跌格局并非经济因素定价</p><p><strong>(一)经济周期与大类资产轮动的常规逻辑</strong></p><p>美国经济研究局(NBER)将美国经济划分为:早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)和衰退期(Recession)。常规逻辑下:经济早周期EPS回升预期及低利率环境共振下,股票无疑是最优质资产;经济中周期无风险利率回升约束股票估值因素,经济向好局面推动大宗商品需求改善,因此最优质资产由大宗接棒;经济晚周期EPS回落预期叠加通胀走高将对权益资产形成掣肘,但黄金等不生息、抗通胀资产反而会有明显的相对收益;经济衰退期货币政策放松,利率债成为最佳标的。经典的美林时钟也是在解释大类资产轮动的宏观逻辑。也就是说,商品和债券应该站在经济四象限的“对立面”;股票跟黄金也应该站在“对立面”。</p><p><strong>(二)3月以来海外各类资产同涨同跌并非由经济因素定价</strong></p><p>3月以来海外权益、债券、大宗商品和黄金却经历了涨跌的共振。3月4日-23日标普500指数下挫28.5%、WTI原油重挫50.1%、COMEX铜下跌19.1%,3月4-18日10年期美债收益率反弹16BP,3月6-19日COMEX黄金下跌11.7%。而3月23日-7月24日的4个月内标普500指数上涨43.7%、WTI原油上涨78.8%、COMEX黄金上涨21.0%、COMEX铜上涨40.7%,10年期美债收益率回落17BP。</p><p>假若单纯套用经济周期下大类资产轮动框架,我们会看到此间大宗商品走势与美债走势的矛盾,以及美股表现与黄金表现的矛盾。或者说,表面看美股走势在为美国经济复苏定价、大宗商品走势在为经济过热定价、黄金上涨在为经济滞胀定价,而美债收益率维持低位则是为经济衰退定价。逆向思维,各类资产同涨同跌大概率是非经济因素的结果。</p><center><img height=\"343\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/0713e3fead7fcec1cd7c71ef708ff209.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"338\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/62b850e454f99ba97a1ce8e986644b0c.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>(三)3月以来海外定价逻辑:信用环境决定β,基本面因素决定α</strong></p><p>美国乃至全球的信用环境的极端变化是同期多数资产的β因素。如图3-4所示,除了原油因供给端对价格存在较大扰动外,美股、黄金、伦铜等资产在3-5月的走势均与美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数高度负相关。图5表明美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数反映的金融市场条件较大程度上取决于美联储货币政策。由此可见,3月各类资产同跌反映的是信用环境紧张、随后各类资产齐涨则与信用条件改善有关。</p><p>基本面因素则影响各类资产的相对表现,也即决定了资产的α。如图6-7所示,过去数月WTI原油价格与标普500指数的比值与全球制造业PMI同趋势、伦铜价格与标普500指数的比值则大致与中国制造业PMI同趋势。当然,我们并不能单纯认为制造业PMI波动反映的需求端变化决定了商品价格的相对表现,毕竟此间还有供给因素的影响,但是铜、油等商品相对美股的表现确实反映了基本面因素。</p><p>美国政府杠杆率则是美债走势的核心矛盾。人口结构等经济因素确实是美债走势的关键,但货币政策在极端情况下要优先服务财政,帮助政府降低债务负担。因此,长期而言10年期美债收益率与美国政府杠杆率高度负相关。我们在《卫生事件或加速中美角色切换》等报告中多次强调,卫生事件冲击下今明两年美国政府杠杆率将大幅攀升,因此QE将成为美联储的常态货币政策操作,10年期美债收益率也将被压制在1%下方。此外,在降低政府债务压力、不实施负利率以及不允许美债曲线持续倒挂的三重诉求下,收益率曲线管理(Yield \nCurve Control,YCC)政策已经进入实践期(尽管尚未落地)。</p><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/843969efd557fb652aa7d01fab7a003d.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"345\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c024f8d290a0cc9f2eb50a4259703ea0.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/15628525024a3c310fe8b968b74509f5.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"338\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f39640fdbb510b3b296cde1209bcd2db.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"335\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/8a9ee37102039c53147e3aa2cfb52bd5.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/63fd14a9b72be10509e4515b4c8d5bbf.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p>二、两指标表明海外资产共振期已经基本结束</p><p><strong>(一)三比价接近卫生事件前水平,金融条件驱动各类资产共振期已近尾声</strong></p><p>一般来说,黄金具有抗通胀和避险功能,在极端的流动性环境下,黄金的波动会远小于风险资产。如图9-11所示,3月全球流动性紧张,黄金相对风险资产的比价也将大幅攀升;4月全球流动性缓和,黄金相对表现趋弱。由前文,3月以来信用环境是全球各类资产走势的β因素。目前金银比、金油比及金铜比分别达到或接近卫生事件暴发前水平,表明信用环境(金融条件)触发的海外资产的共振阶段大概率已经接近尾声。</p><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/08599def09df50545437af3cc7e7b76f.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"346\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/a54baa9e78a0318bc17d67f61917635c.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"335\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/873706adae4f55c31232c62bba401f30.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>(二)美复工红利消失,Risk-on情绪将降温,风险资产亦将分化</strong></p><p>我们在7月7日报告《美国经济数据将由“惊喜期”转入“平淡期”》中指出,6月初美国花旗经济意外指数由负转正,随后一骑绝尘大幅攀升至历史最高水平并显著好于同期其他经济体该数据表现。花旗经济意外指数反映的是预期差,表明复工红利推动下美国经济数据一直处于“惊喜期”。这种“惊喜”也令市场Risk-on情绪不断升温,这也是风险资产同步高歌的关键情绪动力。7月17日以来美国花旗经济意外指数拐头回落,大抵说明复工红利消失,美国经济数据已经进入“平淡期”。尽管该因素并不会令市场情绪转向Risk-off,但Risk-on情绪或将降温。往后看,风险资产也将面临走势分化。</p><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/13b6551992199f9b6f75424d6e4c01ea.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p>三、关注美国第二轮纾困法案和OPEC+供给变化</p><p><strong>(一)美债暂由联储定价,成为最稳定资产</strong></p><p>受美国政府杠杆率大幅攀升约束,美债暂时不再市场化,而由美联储定价。这也意味着未来1-2年美债将成为海外市场中最稳定的资产。我们用两组指标衡量不同卫生事件持续时间下10年期美债收益率中枢:一是用美国国债占GDP比重与10年期美债收益率的关系倒推不同卫生事件持续时间下10年期美债收益率(下限);二是假定卫生事件彻底结束后美国名义GDP增长中枢为4%,用经济增长刚好可以覆盖债务支出倒算出的10年期美债收益率(上限)。最后用二者均值作为不同卫生事件持续时间下的10年期美债收益率中枢。由于卫生事件将贯穿2020年全年,因此预计今明两年10年期美债收益率中枢或均将处于1%下方。</p><center><img height=\"338\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/275417b2ae9f131025a798ddce59c243.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>(二)未来两周美第二轮纾困法案进展将影响大选前美股表现</strong></p><p>1. 复工红利消失;卫生事件导致美国乃至全球企业加速违约</p><p>7月18日当周美国初请失业金人数为141.6万人,前值130.7万人,4月以来该指标首次反弹。就业数据的变化表明美国复工红利大概率已经消失。</p><center><img height=\"337\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/5b206ecc1f2cd221834ce7b86631fb08.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p>此外,我们在半年报《酝酿中的变化——海外宏观经济2020年中期展望》中指出卫生事件将导致Q3全球企业加速违约、破产。标普的数据显示卫生事件暴发以来,特别是5月以来美国乃至全球企业违约数量大幅攀升。其中,7月1日当周-15日当周(共3周)美国企业违约数为256起、去年同期135期;全球违约数为391起、去年同期195起。企业加速违约将约束企业资本开支和就业。历次经济衰退中,企业违约率与破产率飙升都发生在经济衰退后期到复苏初期,换言之Q3-Q4美国乃至全球企业违约率仍处上升期,并将约束企业资本开支、就业以及经济复苏的斜率。假若未来一段时间美国乃至全球未能落地更多经济刺激政策,则股票、大宗商品等风险资产或将进入波动加剧期。</p><center><img height=\"340\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/dfeac1e019565c41e2646bb375e1b562.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"339\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/c87af629c98138fb42c5013bc46128ff.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p>2. 美第二轮援助法案能否在未来两周落地直接影响大选前美股表现</p><p>6-7月美国参议院一直在讨论第二轮纾困计划,但始终未能落地。由于8月7日之后美国国会将休会一个月并且薪资保障计划等援助项目将于8月8日结束,因此能否落地第二轮纾困计划对美国经济前景乃至美股表现至关重要。</p><p>7月23-24日美国参议院推动第二轮纾困法案取得明显进展[1]。7月24日美国财长姆努钦表示,白宫与参议院共和党议员就刺激计划达成基本一致。共和党计划最早8月份向美国人发放新一轮1,200美元支票;救济法案的规模将在1万亿美元左右,不排除有进一步的救助;刺激方案包括补发70%的工资;救助法案将以“分层的方式”处理。假若8月7日美国国会休会前财政部能够落地第二轮纾困法案,则8月8日到期的薪资保障计划即可延续,就业及消费将受到提振,企业违约数量的斜率也将受到控制。</p><p>此外,若第二轮纾困法案落地,美联储的结构性缩表也将结束。本次扩表美联储有两种操作:用短期操作降低金融市场压力;用中长期操作配合财政政策。近期美联储资产负债表中资产项收缩的项目均对应短期操作,而中长期操作所对应的项目仍处扩张态势。此前,美联储实施了4周结构性缩表,主要体现为金融条件改善推动短期操作退出的速度快于配合财政进行的中长期操作项目的扩张速度。往后看,关于美联储结构性缩表的四种可能情形:情形一:7月参议院无法推动第二轮纾困法案落地,则Q3美联储将延续结构性缩表;情形二:7月第二轮纾困法案落地,则8-9月美联储资产负债表规模或将重新扩张;情形三:卫生事件影响超预期的同时,美国金融市场条件再度大幅收紧,令美联储重启短期扩表操作;情形四:前三种情形均为短期情形。再往后看,在绝大多数短期操作均已退出,而美联储仍在持续增持美债的阶段,美联储资产负债也将重新扩张。</p><p>也就是说,假若美国财政部能够落地第二轮纾困法案,美联储资产负债表总规模也将重新回到扩张阶段。整体来看,第二轮纾困法案能否落地直接影响8-11月(美国大选前)美国经济复苏程度以及美股表现,目前看未来两周落地概率在上升。</p><p><strong>(三)OPEC+将于8月起减少减产规模,动态供给或将约束原油价格</strong></p><p>6月中旬以来,WTI原油价格始终徘徊在40美元/桶附近,而40美元/桶刚好是页岩油盈亏平衡点。该位置已引发OPEC+调整供给策略,随后国际油价或将加大波动。</p><p>除了金融条件和需求改善外,3月以来供给政策变化对国际原油价格影响极大。3-4月卫生事件约束需求端的同时,价格战对原油价格又形成进一步打击。3月6日俄罗斯临时拒绝提高减产规模,令OPEC+会议谈判破裂,3月8日沙特表示未来将增产至不低于1000万桶/天,甚至有望将日产量增至1200万桶/天。与2月相比,3-4月OPEC原油日产量确实有所增加,且4月日产量为14个月新高。但4月初油价下挫令产油国态度反转重新推动减产,4月12日OPEC+达成减产协议,规定5月1日起OPEC+减产970万桶/天。自5月1日减产协议落地起,国际原油价格就进入回升态势。</p><p>但目前OPEC+的供给收缩将转化为日后的剩余产能。目前页岩油盈亏平衡点约为40美元/桶,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>产业发展极其市场化,一旦跌破盈亏平衡点美国原油供给量将持续收缩、一旦升破盈亏平衡点美国原油供给也将快速回升。受此影响,7月15日会议上OPEC+成员国一致同意自8月开始缩减OPEC+国家减产规模,正式进入减产协议第二阶段[2]。自2020年8月起至2020年12月末,OPCE+减产规模从970万桶/日缩减至770万桶/日。但是OPEC+决定对于截止6月末减产没有达到100%的国家,将在8-9月期间进行共计84.2万桶/日的补充性减产,考虑补偿性减产的额度,2020年8-9月实际协议减产量为854.2万桶/日。但考虑减产执行率,我们预计8-9月真实减产力度或将低于854.2万桶/天。</p><p>5月1日OPEC+落地减产计划奠定了5-6月国际原油价格的上行趋势。相应地,8月1日OPEC+减少减产规模也可能会加剧国际油价的波动。维持下半年WTI原油价格在30-45美元/桶区间运行的预期。其他国际定价商品情形类似。</p><p><strong>(四)分散风险诉求下境外投资者或将持续增配黄金</strong></p><p>截止7月24日收盘,标普500指数CAPE及PE分别为29.97倍及27.64倍[3],均接近历史最高水平,但由于美债收益率处于历史最低水平,难以判断美股估值是否合理,只是风险肯定在不断积累。不排除市场惯性可以推动美股和部分海外风险资产进一步走高的可能性,但境外投资者或将在此时降低组合内资产的相关性,比如调降海外股票及大宗商品的持有权重,适当上调黄金及美国住宅型Reits产品的配置比例。Q3是各国通胀反弹的时间窗口,黄金会相对受益。卫生事件过后地产将成为美国经济重要驱动力,且5月以来美国住宅地产指标快速回升,因此其Reits产品也应该在下半年有所表现。截止7月24日,全球最大黄金ETF—SPDR黄金持有量已经攀升至1228.81吨,较上周五增加21.92吨、较6月底增加49.91吨、较3月底增加261.81吨。SPDR的增仓速率为美联储实施QE1以来最快,大概率是YCC政策及分散风险诉求的结果。</p><center><img height=\"342\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/dacdb59aae2d8d2b8b7fe0cdc74a848c.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><center><img height=\"333\" src=\"http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/7424a4e621dfb831751ed4abc85572cb.jpg\" width=\"677\"/></center><p><strong>风险提示</strong></p><p>(一)美联储货币政策超预期</p><p>(二)美国财政政策超预期</p><p>(三)全球卫生事件超预期</p><p>(编辑:玉景)</p> </article></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>广发:海外资产或将由共振期转向分化期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n广发:海外资产或将由共振期转向分化期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-27 06:20 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/321371.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自 微信公众号“ 静观金融”,作者:张静静。报告摘要此前海外各类资产同涨同跌格局并非由经济因素定价。经济周期与大类资产轮动的常规逻辑。经济可划分为早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)及衰退期(Recession)四个阶段。一般情况下,经济早周期股票是最优资产;经济中周期最优资产是大宗;经济晚周期黄金有明显的相对收益;经济衰退期利率债为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/321371.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20200727/20200727061738_97628.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","DOG":"道指反向ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/321371.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2054893910","content_text":"本文来自 微信公众号“ 静观金融”,作者:张静静。报告摘要此前海外各类资产同涨同跌格局并非由经济因素定价。经济周期与大类资产轮动的常规逻辑。经济可划分为早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)及衰退期(Recession)四个阶段。一般情况下,经济早周期股票是最优资产;经济中周期最优资产是大宗;经济晚周期黄金有明显的相对收益;经济衰退期利率债为最佳标的。经典的美林时钟也是在解释大类资产轮动的宏观逻辑。也就是说,商品和债券应该站在经济四象限的“对立面”;股票跟黄金也应该站在“对立面”。3月以来海外各类资产同涨同跌并非由经济因素定价。3月中旬美股、美债、黄金、商品齐跌;3月23日-7月24日上述四类资产同涨。单纯套用经济周期下大类资产轮动框架,各类资产的同跌同涨反映了诸多矛盾。逆向思维,3月以来各类资产表现大概率是非经济因素驱动的结果。3月以来海外定价逻辑:信用环境决定β,基本面因素决定α。美股、黄金、伦铜等众多资产在3-5月的走势均与美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数高度负相关,表明3月各类资产同跌反映的是信用环境紧张、随后各类资产齐涨则与信用条件改善有关。此间,基本面因素则影响各类资产的相对表现,也即决定了资产的α。过去数月WTI原油价格与标普500指数的比值与全球制造业PMI同趋势、伦铜价格与标普500指数的比值则大致与中国制造业PMI同趋势。当然,我们并不能单纯认为制造业PMI波动反映的需求端变化决定了商品价格的相对表现,毕竟此间还有供给因素的影响,但是铜、油等商品相对美股的表现确实反映了基本面因素。此外,美国政府杠杆率则是当前美债走势的核心矛盾。两指标表明海外资产共振期已经基本结束。三比价接近卫生事件前水平,金融条件驱动各类资产共振期已近尾声。在极端的流动性环境下,黄金的波动会远小于风险资产。3月全球流动性紧张,黄金相对风险资产的比价也将大幅攀升;4月全球流动性缓和,黄金相对表现趋弱。目前金银比、金油比及金铜比分别达到或接近卫生事件暴发前水平,表明信用环境(金融条件)触发的海外资产的共振阶段大概率已经接近尾声。美复工红利消失,Risk-on情绪将降温,风险资产亦将分化。6月初美国花旗经济意外指数由负转正,随后一骑绝尘大幅攀升,表明复工红利推动下美国经济数据一直处于“惊喜期”。这种“惊喜”也令市场Risk-on情绪不断升温,成为风险资产同步高歌的情绪动力。7月17日以来美国花旗经济意外指数拐头回落,大抵说明复工红利消失,美国经济数据已经进入“平淡期”,Risk-on情绪或将降温。往后看,风险资产也将面临走势分化。关注美国第二轮纾困法案和OPEC+供给变化。美债暂由联储定价,成为最稳定资产。受美国政府杠杆率大幅攀升约束,美债暂时不再市场化,而由美联储定价。今明两年10年期美债收益率或将始终低于1%。美国复工红利消失;卫生事件导致美国乃至全球企业加速违约。7月18日当周美国初请失业金人数反弹,为4月以来首次,表明美国复工红利大概率已经消失。此外,7月前3周美国企业违约数为256起、去年同期135期;全球违约数为391起、去年同期195起。历次经济衰退中,企业违约率与破产率飙升都发生在经济衰退后期到复苏初期,换言之Q3-Q4美国乃至全球企业违约率仍处上升期,并将约束企业资本开支、就业以及经济复苏的斜率。假若未来一段时间未能落地更多经济刺激政策,则风险资产或将进入波动加剧期。美第二轮援助法案能否在未来两周落地直接影响大选前美股表现。8月7日后美国国会将休会一个月并且薪资保障计划等援助项目将于8月8日结束,因此未来两周能否落地第二轮纾困计划对美国大选前的经济前景乃至美股表现至关重要。目前看,7月23-24日美国参议院推动第二轮纾困法案取得明显进展。OPEC+将于8月起减少减产规模,动态供给或将约束原油价格。6月中旬以来,WTI原油价格始终徘徊在40美元/桶附近,而40美元/桶刚好是页岩油盈亏平衡点。该位置已引发OPEC+调整供给策略。7月15日会议上OPEC+成员国一致同意自8月开始缩减OPEC+国家减产规模。5月1日OPEC+落地减产计划奠定了5-6月国际原油价格的上行趋势。相应地,8月1日OPEC+减少减产规模也可能会加剧国际油价的波动。维持下半年WTI原油价格在30-45美元/桶区间运行的预期。其他国际定价商品情形类似。分散风险诉求下境外投资者或将持续增配黄金。目前标普500指数市盈率已接近历史最高水平,但由于美债收益率处于历史最低水平,难以判断美股估值是否合理,只是风险肯定在不断积累。分散风险的诉求下,黄金、美国住宅型Reits等产品将受到青睐。近期全球最大黄金ETF的增仓速率为美联储实施QE1以来最快,大概率就是美联储实践收益率曲线管理政策及分散风险诉求的结果。一、此前海外各类资产同涨同跌格局并非经济因素定价(一)经济周期与大类资产轮动的常规逻辑美国经济研究局(NBER)将美国经济划分为:早周期(Early-Cycle)、中周期(Mid-Cycle)、后周期(Late-Cycle)和衰退期(Recession)。常规逻辑下:经济早周期EPS回升预期及低利率环境共振下,股票无疑是最优质资产;经济中周期无风险利率回升约束股票估值因素,经济向好局面推动大宗商品需求改善,因此最优质资产由大宗接棒;经济晚周期EPS回落预期叠加通胀走高将对权益资产形成掣肘,但黄金等不生息、抗通胀资产反而会有明显的相对收益;经济衰退期货币政策放松,利率债成为最佳标的。经典的美林时钟也是在解释大类资产轮动的宏观逻辑。也就是说,商品和债券应该站在经济四象限的“对立面”;股票跟黄金也应该站在“对立面”。(二)3月以来海外各类资产同涨同跌并非由经济因素定价3月以来海外权益、债券、大宗商品和黄金却经历了涨跌的共振。3月4日-23日标普500指数下挫28.5%、WTI原油重挫50.1%、COMEX铜下跌19.1%,3月4-18日10年期美债收益率反弹16BP,3月6-19日COMEX黄金下跌11.7%。而3月23日-7月24日的4个月内标普500指数上涨43.7%、WTI原油上涨78.8%、COMEX黄金上涨21.0%、COMEX铜上涨40.7%,10年期美债收益率回落17BP。假若单纯套用经济周期下大类资产轮动框架,我们会看到此间大宗商品走势与美债走势的矛盾,以及美股表现与黄金表现的矛盾。或者说,表面看美股走势在为美国经济复苏定价、大宗商品走势在为经济过热定价、黄金上涨在为经济滞胀定价,而美债收益率维持低位则是为经济衰退定价。逆向思维,各类资产同涨同跌大概率是非经济因素的结果。(三)3月以来海外定价逻辑:信用环境决定β,基本面因素决定α美国乃至全球的信用环境的极端变化是同期多数资产的β因素。如图3-4所示,除了原油因供给端对价格存在较大扰动外,美股、黄金、伦铜等资产在3-5月的走势均与美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数高度负相关。图5表明美国圣路易斯联储金融压力指数反映的金融市场条件较大程度上取决于美联储货币政策。由此可见,3月各类资产同跌反映的是信用环境紧张、随后各类资产齐涨则与信用条件改善有关。基本面因素则影响各类资产的相对表现,也即决定了资产的α。如图6-7所示,过去数月WTI原油价格与标普500指数的比值与全球制造业PMI同趋势、伦铜价格与标普500指数的比值则大致与中国制造业PMI同趋势。当然,我们并不能单纯认为制造业PMI波动反映的需求端变化决定了商品价格的相对表现,毕竟此间还有供给因素的影响,但是铜、油等商品相对美股的表现确实反映了基本面因素。美国政府杠杆率则是美债走势的核心矛盾。人口结构等经济因素确实是美债走势的关键,但货币政策在极端情况下要优先服务财政,帮助政府降低债务负担。因此,长期而言10年期美债收益率与美国政府杠杆率高度负相关。我们在《卫生事件或加速中美角色切换》等报告中多次强调,卫生事件冲击下今明两年美国政府杠杆率将大幅攀升,因此QE将成为美联储的常态货币政策操作,10年期美债收益率也将被压制在1%下方。此外,在降低政府债务压力、不实施负利率以及不允许美债曲线持续倒挂的三重诉求下,收益率曲线管理(Yield \nCurve Control,YCC)政策已经进入实践期(尽管尚未落地)。二、两指标表明海外资产共振期已经基本结束(一)三比价接近卫生事件前水平,金融条件驱动各类资产共振期已近尾声一般来说,黄金具有抗通胀和避险功能,在极端的流动性环境下,黄金的波动会远小于风险资产。如图9-11所示,3月全球流动性紧张,黄金相对风险资产的比价也将大幅攀升;4月全球流动性缓和,黄金相对表现趋弱。由前文,3月以来信用环境是全球各类资产走势的β因素。目前金银比、金油比及金铜比分别达到或接近卫生事件暴发前水平,表明信用环境(金融条件)触发的海外资产的共振阶段大概率已经接近尾声。(二)美复工红利消失,Risk-on情绪将降温,风险资产亦将分化我们在7月7日报告《美国经济数据将由“惊喜期”转入“平淡期”》中指出,6月初美国花旗经济意外指数由负转正,随后一骑绝尘大幅攀升至历史最高水平并显著好于同期其他经济体该数据表现。花旗经济意外指数反映的是预期差,表明复工红利推动下美国经济数据一直处于“惊喜期”。这种“惊喜”也令市场Risk-on情绪不断升温,这也是风险资产同步高歌的关键情绪动力。7月17日以来美国花旗经济意外指数拐头回落,大抵说明复工红利消失,美国经济数据已经进入“平淡期”。尽管该因素并不会令市场情绪转向Risk-off,但Risk-on情绪或将降温。往后看,风险资产也将面临走势分化。三、关注美国第二轮纾困法案和OPEC+供给变化(一)美债暂由联储定价,成为最稳定资产受美国政府杠杆率大幅攀升约束,美债暂时不再市场化,而由美联储定价。这也意味着未来1-2年美债将成为海外市场中最稳定的资产。我们用两组指标衡量不同卫生事件持续时间下10年期美债收益率中枢:一是用美国国债占GDP比重与10年期美债收益率的关系倒推不同卫生事件持续时间下10年期美债收益率(下限);二是假定卫生事件彻底结束后美国名义GDP增长中枢为4%,用经济增长刚好可以覆盖债务支出倒算出的10年期美债收益率(上限)。最后用二者均值作为不同卫生事件持续时间下的10年期美债收益率中枢。由于卫生事件将贯穿2020年全年,因此预计今明两年10年期美债收益率中枢或均将处于1%下方。(二)未来两周美第二轮纾困法案进展将影响大选前美股表现1. 复工红利消失;卫生事件导致美国乃至全球企业加速违约7月18日当周美国初请失业金人数为141.6万人,前值130.7万人,4月以来该指标首次反弹。就业数据的变化表明美国复工红利大概率已经消失。此外,我们在半年报《酝酿中的变化——海外宏观经济2020年中期展望》中指出卫生事件将导致Q3全球企业加速违约、破产。标普的数据显示卫生事件暴发以来,特别是5月以来美国乃至全球企业违约数量大幅攀升。其中,7月1日当周-15日当周(共3周)美国企业违约数为256起、去年同期135期;全球违约数为391起、去年同期195起。企业加速违约将约束企业资本开支和就业。历次经济衰退中,企业违约率与破产率飙升都发生在经济衰退后期到复苏初期,换言之Q3-Q4美国乃至全球企业违约率仍处上升期,并将约束企业资本开支、就业以及经济复苏的斜率。假若未来一段时间美国乃至全球未能落地更多经济刺激政策,则股票、大宗商品等风险资产或将进入波动加剧期。2. 美第二轮援助法案能否在未来两周落地直接影响大选前美股表现6-7月美国参议院一直在讨论第二轮纾困计划,但始终未能落地。由于8月7日之后美国国会将休会一个月并且薪资保障计划等援助项目将于8月8日结束,因此能否落地第二轮纾困计划对美国经济前景乃至美股表现至关重要。7月23-24日美国参议院推动第二轮纾困法案取得明显进展[1]。7月24日美国财长姆努钦表示,白宫与参议院共和党议员就刺激计划达成基本一致。共和党计划最早8月份向美国人发放新一轮1,200美元支票;救济法案的规模将在1万亿美元左右,不排除有进一步的救助;刺激方案包括补发70%的工资;救助法案将以“分层的方式”处理。假若8月7日美国国会休会前财政部能够落地第二轮纾困法案,则8月8日到期的薪资保障计划即可延续,就业及消费将受到提振,企业违约数量的斜率也将受到控制。此外,若第二轮纾困法案落地,美联储的结构性缩表也将结束。本次扩表美联储有两种操作:用短期操作降低金融市场压力;用中长期操作配合财政政策。近期美联储资产负债表中资产项收缩的项目均对应短期操作,而中长期操作所对应的项目仍处扩张态势。此前,美联储实施了4周结构性缩表,主要体现为金融条件改善推动短期操作退出的速度快于配合财政进行的中长期操作项目的扩张速度。往后看,关于美联储结构性缩表的四种可能情形:情形一:7月参议院无法推动第二轮纾困法案落地,则Q3美联储将延续结构性缩表;情形二:7月第二轮纾困法案落地,则8-9月美联储资产负债表规模或将重新扩张;情形三:卫生事件影响超预期的同时,美国金融市场条件再度大幅收紧,令美联储重启短期扩表操作;情形四:前三种情形均为短期情形。再往后看,在绝大多数短期操作均已退出,而美联储仍在持续增持美债的阶段,美联储资产负债也将重新扩张。也就是说,假若美国财政部能够落地第二轮纾困法案,美联储资产负债表总规模也将重新回到扩张阶段。整体来看,第二轮纾困法案能否落地直接影响8-11月(美国大选前)美国经济复苏程度以及美股表现,目前看未来两周落地概率在上升。(三)OPEC+将于8月起减少减产规模,动态供给或将约束原油价格6月中旬以来,WTI原油价格始终徘徊在40美元/桶附近,而40美元/桶刚好是页岩油盈亏平衡点。该位置已引发OPEC+调整供给策略,随后国际油价或将加大波动。除了金融条件和需求改善外,3月以来供给政策变化对国际原油价格影响极大。3-4月卫生事件约束需求端的同时,价格战对原油价格又形成进一步打击。3月6日俄罗斯临时拒绝提高减产规模,令OPEC+会议谈判破裂,3月8日沙特表示未来将增产至不低于1000万桶/天,甚至有望将日产量增至1200万桶/天。与2月相比,3-4月OPEC原油日产量确实有所增加,且4月日产量为14个月新高。但4月初油价下挫令产油国态度反转重新推动减产,4月12日OPEC+达成减产协议,规定5月1日起OPEC+减产970万桶/天。自5月1日减产协议落地起,国际原油价格就进入回升态势。但目前OPEC+的供给收缩将转化为日后的剩余产能。目前页岩油盈亏平衡点约为40美元/桶,美国能源产业发展极其市场化,一旦跌破盈亏平衡点美国原油供给量将持续收缩、一旦升破盈亏平衡点美国原油供给也将快速回升。受此影响,7月15日会议上OPEC+成员国一致同意自8月开始缩减OPEC+国家减产规模,正式进入减产协议第二阶段[2]。自2020年8月起至2020年12月末,OPCE+减产规模从970万桶/日缩减至770万桶/日。但是OPEC+决定对于截止6月末减产没有达到100%的国家,将在8-9月期间进行共计84.2万桶/日的补充性减产,考虑补偿性减产的额度,2020年8-9月实际协议减产量为854.2万桶/日。但考虑减产执行率,我们预计8-9月真实减产力度或将低于854.2万桶/天。5月1日OPEC+落地减产计划奠定了5-6月国际原油价格的上行趋势。相应地,8月1日OPEC+减少减产规模也可能会加剧国际油价的波动。维持下半年WTI原油价格在30-45美元/桶区间运行的预期。其他国际定价商品情形类似。(四)分散风险诉求下境外投资者或将持续增配黄金截止7月24日收盘,标普500指数CAPE及PE分别为29.97倍及27.64倍[3],均接近历史最高水平,但由于美债收益率处于历史最低水平,难以判断美股估值是否合理,只是风险肯定在不断积累。不排除市场惯性可以推动美股和部分海外风险资产进一步走高的可能性,但境外投资者或将在此时降低组合内资产的相关性,比如调降海外股票及大宗商品的持有权重,适当上调黄金及美国住宅型Reits产品的配置比例。Q3是各国通胀反弹的时间窗口,黄金会相对受益。卫生事件过后地产将成为美国经济重要驱动力,且5月以来美国住宅地产指标快速回升,因此其Reits产品也应该在下半年有所表现。截止7月24日,全球最大黄金ETF—SPDR黄金持有量已经攀升至1228.81吨,较上周五增加21.92吨、较6月底增加49.91吨、较3月底增加261.81吨。SPDR的增仓速率为美联储实施QE1以来最快,大概率是YCC政策及分散风险诉求的结果。风险提示(一)美联储货币政策超预期(二)美国财政政策超预期(三)全球卫生事件超预期(编辑:玉景)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955715514,"gmtCreate":1592552978338,"gmtModify":1704199699265,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心] 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>我之前写过空拼多多的逻辑,大规模补贴和砸钱,大规模的广告获取用户,但是一旦停止补贴呢?不敢想象!所以拼多多目前就是竭尽所有尽量把用户做起来,然后期待携用户以令(吸引)品牌入驻的效果,目前百亿补贴主要是为了洗超低质量的品牌形象以及吸引一些都市用户,而且的确效果不错,非常多的用户为了大额折扣“赌”拼多多不敢卖二手或者次货,但是补贴终有结束的那一天,为了安全感,用户还是会离开回到京东和天猫的怀抱。目前阿里和京东坐看拼多多起来不去强烈狙击估计也是因为拼多多帮助淘宝和京东教育培养新的用户,拼多多长尾比不过淘宝,更别提服饰美妆去冲击天猫了,大家电,图书,数码产品没有摸到京东的屁股,商超业务基本也是天猫超市和京东超市在玩,估计这也是三家大规模正面拼杀的缘故把。另外,羡慕赚到钱的朋友们,还有人像我一样70开始空的吗?拼多多股价涨到100,我估计还可以接受,用钱为自己的认知投票把!还有和我一样的空头吗?报个到!","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$我之前写过空拼多多的逻辑,大规模补贴和砸钱,大规模的广告获取用户,但是一旦停止补贴呢?不敢想象!所以拼多多目前就是竭尽所有尽量把用户做起来,然后期待携用户以令(吸引)品牌入驻的效果,目前百亿补贴主要是为了洗超低质量的品牌形象以及吸引一些都市用户,而且的确效果不错,非常多的用户为了大额折扣“赌”拼多多不敢卖二手或者次货,但是补贴终有结束的那一天,为了安全感,用户还是会离开回到京东和天猫的怀抱。目前阿里和京东坐看拼多多起来不去强烈狙击估计也是因为拼多多帮助淘宝和京东教育培养新的用户,拼多多长尾比不过淘宝,更别提服饰美妆去冲击天猫了,大家电,图书,数码产品没有摸到京东的屁股,商超业务基本也是天猫超市和京东超市在玩,估计这也是三家大规模正面拼杀的缘故把。另外,羡慕赚到钱的朋友们,还有人像我一样70开始空的吗?拼多多股价涨到100,我估计还可以接受,用钱为自己的认知投票把!还有和我一样的空头吗?报个到!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955485814","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":956622806,"gmtCreate":1591684014805,"gmtModify":1704196419612,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我也就跟着大神们买,没啥好用的策略","listText":"我也就跟着大神们买,没啥好用的策略","text":"我也就跟着大神们买,没啥好用的策略","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956622806","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925175029,"gmtCreate":1587953037461,"gmtModify":1704365813723,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么这么多造假的?很迷//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/21347731130544\">@价值投资为王</a>:投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>","listText":"为什么这么多造假的?很迷//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/21347731130544\">@价值投资为王</a>:投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>","text":"为什么这么多造假的?很迷//@价值投资为王:投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱$达美航空(DAL)$$西南航空(LUV)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925175029","repostId":"928858670","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":928858670,"gmtCreate":1586700448490,"gmtModify":1704361819920,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>","listText":"投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">$达美航空(DAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a>","text":"投资还得信自己,有时候跟着股神买都有可能会亏钱$达美航空(DAL)$$西南航空(LUV)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/928858670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925172366,"gmtCreate":1587952925555,"gmtModify":1704365812641,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"雅诗兰黛小棕瓶实际上并不添加某一核心成分,但却一直利用核心成分宣传的事情,就这样不了了之了么?","listText":"雅诗兰黛小棕瓶实际上并不添加某一核心成分,但却一直利用核心成分宣传的事情,就这样不了了之了么?","text":"雅诗兰黛小棕瓶实际上并不添加某一核心成分,但却一直利用核心成分宣传的事情,就这样不了了之了么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925172366","repostId":"922385775","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":922385775,"gmtCreate":1587456124897,"gmtModify":1704364217673,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"美股研究社","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a239c7906133df1f3817d0746a8a0ba1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503452965237041","authorIdStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"title":"全球经济“栽跟头”,这七只旅游股谁翻身最快?","htmlText":"由于新型冠状病毒的出现,旅游类股在2020年的表现最为糟糕。据Yardeni Research的数据,截至4月17日,标准普尔500指数中的酒店、度假酒店和邮轮公司类股今年迄今已累计下跌了55%。其他受到重创的行业包括赌场和博彩业(今年迄今下降43%)、餐饮业(今年迄今下降10.2%)、服装配饰和奢侈品(今年迄今下降46.5%),最后,但并非最不重要的是,航空业下降55.8%。毫无疑问,与旅游相关的公司在旅游限制、国内订单和其他与冠状病毒相关的问题上遭受的损失超过了它们应该承担的份额。彭博社(BNN Bloomberg)最近发表了一篇文章,文章显示,在大衰退期间,许多顶级旅游股在2009年低点之后的10年里反弹。想想皇家加勒比(NYSE:RCL)从2007年的高点到2009年的低点下跌了86%。然而,在接下来的10年里,RCL的股票实现了1,906%的回报率。联合航空公司(纳斯达克:UAL)的表现也很出色,在大衰退期间下跌了92%,但在接下来的十年里上涨了2046%。以下是我认为在未来10年左右的时间里值得买入的7支旅游股。Royal Caribbean (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$</a> )Southwest Air Lines (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a> )LVMH (OTCMKTS:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVMUY\">$路易威登(LVMUY)$</a> )Estee Lauder (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"\"></a>","listText":"由于新型冠状病毒的出现,旅游类股在2020年的表现最为糟糕。据Yardeni Research的数据,截至4月17日,标准普尔500指数中的酒店、度假酒店和邮轮公司类股今年迄今已累计下跌了55%。其他受到重创的行业包括赌场和博彩业(今年迄今下降43%)、餐饮业(今年迄今下降10.2%)、服装配饰和奢侈品(今年迄今下降46.5%),最后,但并非最不重要的是,航空业下降55.8%。毫无疑问,与旅游相关的公司在旅游限制、国内订单和其他与冠状病毒相关的问题上遭受的损失超过了它们应该承担的份额。彭博社(BNN Bloomberg)最近发表了一篇文章,文章显示,在大衰退期间,许多顶级旅游股在2009年低点之后的10年里反弹。想想皇家加勒比(NYSE:RCL)从2007年的高点到2009年的低点下跌了86%。然而,在接下来的10年里,RCL的股票实现了1,906%的回报率。联合航空公司(纳斯达克:UAL)的表现也很出色,在大衰退期间下跌了92%,但在接下来的十年里上涨了2046%。以下是我认为在未来10年左右的时间里值得买入的7支旅游股。Royal Caribbean (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$</a> )Southwest Air Lines (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">$西南航空(LUV)$</a> )LVMH (OTCMKTS:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVMUY\">$路易威登(LVMUY)$</a> )Estee Lauder (NYSE:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"\"></a>","text":"由于新型冠状病毒的出现,旅游类股在2020年的表现最为糟糕。据Yardeni Research的数据,截至4月17日,标准普尔500指数中的酒店、度假酒店和邮轮公司类股今年迄今已累计下跌了55%。其他受到重创的行业包括赌场和博彩业(今年迄今下降43%)、餐饮业(今年迄今下降10.2%)、服装配饰和奢侈品(今年迄今下降46.5%),最后,但并非最不重要的是,航空业下降55.8%。毫无疑问,与旅游相关的公司在旅游限制、国内订单和其他与冠状病毒相关的问题上遭受的损失超过了它们应该承担的份额。彭博社(BNN Bloomberg)最近发表了一篇文章,文章显示,在大衰退期间,许多顶级旅游股在2009年低点之后的10年里反弹。想想皇家加勒比(NYSE:RCL)从2007年的高点到2009年的低点下跌了86%。然而,在接下来的10年里,RCL的股票实现了1,906%的回报率。联合航空公司(纳斯达克:UAL)的表现也很出色,在大衰退期间下跌了92%,但在接下来的十年里上涨了2046%。以下是我认为在未来10年左右的时间里值得买入的7支旅游股。Royal Caribbean (NYSE:$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$ )Southwest Air Lines (NYSE:$西南航空(LUV)$ )LVMH (OTCMKTS:$路易威登(LVMUY)$ )Estee Lauder (NYSE:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3d2bf7e9d2b9927d4c94ab51ded84b0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922385775","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925176590,"gmtCreate":1587952819710,"gmtModify":1704365811764,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"丸美真的好用么?","listText":"丸美真的好用么?","text":"丸美真的好用么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/925176590","repostId":"2029277014","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2029277014","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1587629340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2029277014?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-04-23 16:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"库存增长异常 丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2029277014","media":"界面新闻","summary":"原标题:财说| 库存增长异常,丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?记者 张艺口罩遮住了脸庞,也减淡了人们对化妆护肤的需求。化妆品企业丸美股份(603983.SH)上市以来年报首秀交出了一份”稳定”的业绩","content":"<div>\n<p>原标题:财说| 库存增长异常,丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?记者 张艺口罩遮住了脸庞,也减淡了人们对化妆护肤的需求。化妆品企业丸美股份(603983.SH)上市以来年报首秀交出了一份”稳定”的业绩。丸美股份2019年实现营业收入18.01亿元,同比增长14.28%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润5.15亿元,同比增长23.99%。稳定中却也透露着焦虑。线上渠道,丸美股份去年线上营收增长超两成,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-04-23/doc-iircuyvh9412486.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n库存增长异常 丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-23 16:09 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-04-23/doc-iircuyvh9412486.shtml><strong>界面新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:财说| 库存增长异常,丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?记者 张艺口罩遮住了脸庞,也减淡了人们对化妆护肤的需求。化妆品企业丸美股份(603983.SH)上市以来年报首秀交出了一份”稳定”的业绩。丸美股份2019年实现营业收入18.01亿元,同比增长14.28%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润5.15亿元,同比增长23.99%。稳定中却也透露着焦虑。线上渠道,丸美股份去年线上营收增长超两成,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-04-23/doc-iircuyvh9412486.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c6daacf13f78492ec38a4e178ddca49","relate_stocks":{"603983":"丸美生物","VIPS":"唯品会","DOW":"陶氏化学"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-04-23/doc-iircuyvh9412486.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2029277014","content_text":"原标题:财说| 库存增长异常,丸美股份离化妆品“爆款”还有多远?记者 张艺口罩遮住了脸庞,也减淡了人们对化妆护肤的需求。化妆品企业丸美股份(603983.SH)上市以来年报首秀交出了一份”稳定”的业绩。丸美股份2019年实现营业收入18.01亿元,同比增长14.28%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润5.15亿元,同比增长23.99%。稳定中却也透露着焦虑。线上渠道,丸美股份去年线上营收增长超两成,但却面临着网红品牌的竞争,自身未培育出“爆品”;线下渠道,今年将遭遇压力;截至去年底,公司库存增长异动,如何在疫情形势下将其消化;公司部分核心原材料依赖进口,疫情也对境外原材料的供应产生影响。三品牌一强两弱在经历了五年波折后,丸美股份终于在数次冲击IPO后,成功于2019年7月25日登陆上交所主板。丸美股份旗下有三大品牌——“丸美”、“春纪”和“恋火”,其中“丸美”主要以眼部护理为核心,聚焦抗衰老领域,定位中高端;“春纪”品牌定位大众化护肤;“恋火”品牌则是一个彩妆品牌,定位为轻奢韩系彩妆。 不过,这三大品牌之间的差距颇大,一强两弱。2019年丸美股份业绩的增长主要在“丸美”,主品牌MARUBI丸美在去年实现营收16.59亿元,营收占比上升至92.17%,同比增长18.08%。其中,眼部护理品类收入占比 30%。与此同时,基数低的两个品牌“春纪”、“恋火”营收占比反而在下滑。丸美股份称,2019年受大众市场竞争加剧及传统营销局限,春纪整体略有下滑。可见,丸美股份除眼部护理外,在平价路线和彩妆路线均遭遇了滑铁卢。丸美股份毛利率微降,下降0.21个百分点至68.16%,仍是一个较高的毛利率水平。毛利率下降主要在眼部类产品和彩妆及其他类产品。同时,公司存货水平大增,由2018年末的1.29亿元,增至2019年末的1.87亿元,增幅44.89%。丸美股份解释称,这是随销售增长备货增加,库存商品、包装物库存增加。不过,库存的增加为今年上半年的销售带来压力。从2019年四个季度的营业收入及净利润分布来看,一季度应该是公司的营收低谷,第四季度是公司的销售高峰。其原因在于,丸美股份所在的化妆品行业,易受季节性气候及节假日或“双十一”等大型销售活动的影响。截至2019年末的存货数据应该是为2020年第一季度及上半年的销售提供保障。但一季度非旺季,此时存货数据同比大增,稍显突兀。加之今年受疫情影响,消费疲软,能否如期消化库存也是未知数。此外,公司研发费用4486.86万元,同比增长32.66%,研发费用良性增长。但从绝对值来看,研发费用在广告宣传费用面前却是小巫见大巫。2016年、2017年、2018年和2019年,丸美股份用于广告宣传类的费用支出分别为3.38亿元、2.90亿元、3.90亿元和3.72亿元,占公司销售费用的比例分别在七成左右,公司广告宣传费用金额较大,占比较高。不仅如此,丸美股份曾因广告宣传语曾在上市前被责令改正或被投诉。丸美股份却称,采用艺术表现手法渲染和宣传产品的性能和功能,是化妆品行业的普遍现象。打造爆款任重道远一线城市是大牌化妆品的主阵地,丸美股份绕过一线城市的高端路线,在二、三线等城市与国内外化妆品牌展开竞争。这种绕过竞争对手优势转道薄弱地区的思路较为可取。不过,丸美股份的劲敌可不仅仅是这些。线上渠道的增长本是丸美股份自认为值得称道之处。丸美股份的线上渠道主要为天猫、唯品会、京东等电商平台,去年公司营收的增长,正是得益于电商的快速发展。数据显示,丸美股份线上实现8.08亿元营业收入,同比增长22.89%;线下渠道实现9.92亿元营业收入,同比增长8.2%。丸美股份线上线下营收占比但将丸美股份与另一大彩妆品牌完美日记(PerfectDiary)二者天猫旗舰店进行对比就会发现,丸美与完美日记,销量并不在一个量级。基于年轻的优势,完美日记在美妆界崛起十分迅速。截至4月22日晚23时(下同),丸美首页的热销榜上有六件商品,其月销量分别是599件、120件、1408件、22件、116件和23件。期间,丸美还正参与“聚划算”的促销活动,不少商品有买一赠一、领券减100元的促销活动。同时,完美日记首页九宫格中有九件商品,其月销量分别是80万+件、10万+件、25万+件、10万+件、4.5万+件、3243件、10万+件、10万+件和7.5万+件。几乎件件是爆款。当然,两者的定位、产品都不经相同。“完美日记”只是一个代表,还有大量国货品牌,以互联网营销模式火速蹿升。这类品牌与国际品牌对丸美股份形成夹击。除网红爆款外,经典款也是化妆品企业所追求的。在化妆品领域,国际品牌均有一款甚至数款经典产品。例如雅诗兰黛小棕瓶、兰蔻小黑瓶、SK-II神仙水、倩碧黄油等,多年畅销不衰。借助经典款的带动效应,品牌其他产品也受到关注。这种经典还丸美身上似乎仍有一定差距。不过,丸美股份也一直有打造爆款和经典款的意图。去年,丸美股份植入筑梦情缘、庆余年、极限挑战5等热门剧集和综艺,在小红书、抖音等社交媒体进行口碑营销。公司还称,春纪正运用小红书等社交平台分享,酝酿爆品。丸美股份表示,2020年,要加大社交媒体的投入力度,成立社媒团队,充分运用小红书、抖音等平台社交属性,结合行销事件、跨界 IP 等多种营销手段扩大品牌影响力。 2020年初至今,丸美股份与携手品牌大师朱正廷,推出线上新品“小红笔”眼霜正被公司寄希望成为爆款。图片来源:网络市场是检验产品的试金石。上述天猫旗舰店,“小红笔”在买30克送25克的活动下月销量也只有599件。从销量即可见,丸美股份在打造爆款、塑造经典款这两条路线上,均未能树立一个标杆,任重道远。此外,今年的疫情对丸美股份的影响也不可忽视。总结来看共有三处影响。首先,从行业整体来看,化妆品消费受到一定程度的抑制。其次,丸美有55%的线下业务,新冠疫情对线下渠道产生较大影响,对公司去库存也将产生一定影响。第三,丸美股份有部分核心原材料实依赖进口。2019年,丸美股份外购成本7921.63万元,占总成本比例的13.82%。随着新冠疫情在全球范围蔓延,如果短期内不能被有效控制,对公司部分境外原料供应将产生一定影响。 公司称,原材料主要通过国内的代理商向国际知名原料生产商采购进口原材料,所采购原料产品的生 厂商包括法国SEPPIC、韩国BIOLAND、日本一丸、德国巴斯夫和美国陶氏等。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964579282,"gmtCreate":1584433573546,"gmtModify":1704354100431,"author":{"id":"3508218101145926","authorId":"3508218101145926","name":"小布吉岛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/622bebb4cd1e468594eacc08c9ee1bd8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508218101145926","authorIdStr":"3508218101145926"},"themes":[],"title":"ttps://www.laohu8.com/post/write","htmlText":"[难过][可爱][傲娇][生气]@<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3544944655216252\">@eb</a>粉丝 v <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A\">$安捷伦科技(A)$</a>www.baidu.comhttps://www.laohu8.com/post/writehttps://www.laohu8.com/post/964553985https://www.laohu8.com/post/964553985https://www.laohu8.com/post/913165059","listText":"[难过][可爱][傲娇][生气]@<a target=\"_blank\" 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