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萌新一枚,请各位大神多多指教
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旨在实现小目标
2019-08-10
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$波音(BA)$
$京东(JD)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
梦想是要有的,挂一单 碎觉了[无语]
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-20
果然 等一天是值得的,感谢🍎和我雷,明天去Apple store ,麦当劳叔叔 ,你看着办…
$苹果(AAPL)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$雷神(RTN)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$波音(BA)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-23
$波音(BA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$可口可乐(KO)$
感谢波音爸爸卖掉碎叫去啦~
旨在实现小目标
2019-12-31
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$
$Boeing(BA)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
虽然没有赶上峰值,但落袋为安,碎觉了 明儿安心跨年咯~[可爱][可爱]
旨在实现小目标
2019-07-25
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
$波音(BA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$微软(MSFT)$
梦想 是要有的,睡觉去了
旨在实现小目标
2019-07-22
我就笑着坐在山腰
$波音(BA)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$花旗(C)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
旨在实现小目标
2019-01-18
$波音(BA)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $耐克(NKE)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 昨天操作完就睡了,刚刚起夜落袋为安… 早餐有鸡腿了
旨在实现小目标
2019-07-19
$波音(BA)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$苹果(BK0072)$
$AssetMark Financial Holdings, Inc.(AMK)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$特斯拉(BK0076)$
$威瑞森(VZ)$
今晚有肉吃了…
旨在实现小目标
2019-11-25
赚钱啦赚钱了,明儿去换小苹果
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$拼多多(PDD)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$波音(BA)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
[贱笑][贱笑]
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-21
$苹果(AAPL)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$波音(BA)$
$可口可乐(KO)$
今天是埋种子的一天[贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]
旨在实现小目标
2019-09-12
$苹果(AAPL)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$波音(BA)$
今天就这样吧 赚个饭钱
旨在实现小目标
2020-01-23
$苹果(AAPL)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
啦啦啦啦啦啦感谢特斯拉送我压岁钱[贱笑]安心过年了🧨🧨🧨
旨在实现小目标
2019-12-20
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$Apple(AAPL)$
$Boeing(BA)$
$McDonald's(MCD)$
多的不说,今晚感谢特斯拉爸爸送💰[贱笑][贱笑]
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-19
$苹果(AAPL)$
好的 明天去看Mac mini 我的想法很简单, [可爱]用苹果的钱买苹果 取之于🍎 用之于🍎
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-12
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$波音(BA)$
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$可口可乐(KO)$
今晚是否有肉吃?
旨在实现小目标
2019-11-22
今夜🌟灿烂
$苹果(AAPL)$
$波音(BA)$
$京东(JD)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$网易(NTES)$
[贱笑][贱笑][贱笑]
旨在实现小目标
2019-11-09
$CVS健康(CVS)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$波音(BA)$
$京东(JD)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
马上双十一了,向阿里巴巴讨口饭吃[龇牙][龇牙]
旨在实现小目标
2020-01-02
$苹果(AAPL)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$Snap Inc(SNAP)$
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
好吧… 新的一年还是去年的flag每天少玩一点 +$3000 Fighting !祝大家新年快乐![贱笑]
旨在实现小目标
2019-08-12
$可口可乐(KO)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$波音(BA)$
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
感谢麦当劳爸爸送我饭钱,请跟你家可乐说说,别坚持了,坐下来歇会儿吧
旨在实现小目标
2019-11-27
$苹果(AAPL)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
$迪士尼(DIS)$
$麦当劳(MCD)$
我一定是膨胀了[无语]
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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自然 会有这种观点 ","listText":"因为巴菲特“不会做空自己的国家” 自然 会有这种观点 ","text":"因为巴菲特“不会做空自己的国家” 自然 会有这种观点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350814464352544","repostId":"1139091109","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139091109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1726670668,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139091109?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-18 22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特:市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139091109","media":"巴伦中文","summary":"沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:“市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包。”想想2009年以来,如果你听信了那些商业媒体高度赞扬的所谓市场专家,你的钱包会受到多大的伤害。除了少数例外,人类的大多数奇迹都是长期的、人为的事件。着眼于大局的人,长远来看会成功。恐慌是狂热者的敌人,也是市场基本准则遵守者的朋友。巴菲特认为风险是购买力的丧失。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>导读:</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我在南加州大学研究生院的投资课上遇到了查理·芒格,有幸问了他一个重要问题:“如果我能做一件事,让自己成为一名更好的投资专业人士,我应该做什么?”他回答说:“读历史!读历史!读历史!”这是我收到的最好的建议之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比起最令人印象深刻的历史证据,恐惧更能把握人类的行为。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:<strong>“市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">想想2009年以来,如果你听信了那些商业媒体高度赞扬的所谓市场专家,你的钱包会受到多大的伤害。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3414bf62c00a41201f22e9fc1d86b0f7\" alt=\"资料来源:摩根· 豪泽尔,“容易的金钱”\" title=\"资料来源:摩根· 豪泽尔,“容易的金钱”\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"403\"/><span>资料来源:摩根· 豪泽尔,“容易的金钱”</span></p><h2 id=\"id_633744210\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">一、预测是一种强迫性欲望</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体界那些看起来无比自信的权威人士,尽管大多数时间都错了,却没有受到一丁点怀疑。你有没有想过,为什么电视主持人和市场专家会日复一日地做出如此多的预测?他们为什么如此乐于做出这些预测呢?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贾森·茨威格在他的著作《投资的怪圈》(Your Money and Your Brain)中解释了人类不断进行预测的冲动 :“正如大自然厌恶真空一样,人们讨厌随机。人类对不可预知的事情做出预测的冲动源于大脑反射区的多巴胺中枢。我把这种人类倾向称为‘预测成瘾’。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这种趋势是由我们大脑中一种叫作多巴胺的愉悦化学物质驱动的,它的释放会给我们一种自然的冲动来做出下一个预测,然后一个接一个预测下去。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就像茨威格解释的那样,预测成瘾是一种强迫性的欲望,它想从世界上所有的事情中找出意义,包括那些不可能预测的事情,比如未来的股价。(当被问及市场会做什么时,传奇人物J. P.摩根表示:“市场会波动。”)我们谁也无法预测自己的未来。尽管如此,我们仍然会被控制的假象所迷惑,试图预测宏观经济、市场、货币和大宗商品价格。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资作家丹·索林在为《赫芬顿邮报》(Huffington Post)撰写的一篇文章中谈到了预测成瘾 :“这种成瘾特别严重。我们的大脑不仅天生相信我们可以预测未来,从随机行为中找出道理,大脑还会因为这样的行为而回报我们。从事这种活动的人,其大脑会体验到和赌徒进入赌场时一样的愉悦。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>预测上瘾者之于投资者,就像赌场之于赌徒。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">试试这个有趣的练习 :上网搜索一下,在过去几年中随机选择的某个时间段内,看看市场专家对某个宏观主题的预测及其结果。你就再也不会把这些人当回事了。预测只会吸引眼球,除此之外什么也做不到。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">人们常说,牛市会使得担忧之墙高筑。自2009年3月以来,无数令人担忧的新闻头条驱使许多投资者出于恐惧抛售股票,彻底退出市场。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">坏消息的传播速度是好消息的10倍,这是仅仅捕捉市场回报如此困难的最大原因之一。大家可能会认为,这么做很简单,只需购买大盘指数基金,然后不管它。原因很简单,但肯定没那么简单,因为坏消息会把你的脸贴在放大器上,而好消息只是在背景中静静地播放。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">除了少数例外,人类的大多数奇迹都是长期的、人为的事件。进步是一点一滴得来的。人类进步的无声奇迹是:一步接一步,一年又一年,世界在进步。不是按照每一年一个指标,但总会进步。尽管世界面临巨大挑战,但我们取得了巨大进展。这是基于事实的世界观。过去20年来,我们已经将全球极端贫困人口减少了一半,但“贫困率呈递增趋势下降”这一说法从未在新闻头条占据主导地位。当一个趋势随着时间的推移而逐渐改善,并出现周期性的急剧下跌时,人们更有可能注意到的是下降而不是整体改进。新闻媒体倾向于聚焦于生动的事件——戏剧性的、悲剧性的——而不是世界上的每日进步和日常美德。新闻频道争相以生动的故事和戏剧性的叙述来吸引我们的注意力。他们倾向于关注不寻常的而不是普遍的事物,关注新的或暂时的而不是缓慢变化的模式。根本性的改善虽然是改变世界的大事,但如果进展太慢、太分散或太小,就很难称为新闻。流传最快的故事往往带有恐惧或愤怒的成分,会逐渐灌输一种无助感。打开任何新闻频道或上社交媒体。你可能听说过或读到过政治不稳定、市场动荡、自然灾害、谋杀、自杀、疾病暴发、地缘政治紧张局势以及一长串坏消息。人们经常把当今时代称为“有史以来最糟糕的时代”,但这些人显然从来没有读过历史书。消极倾向和可得性偏见的结合导致了对世界普遍的悲观。然而,实际上,我们生活在人类历史上最有希望的时代之一。在你观察的几乎所有长期时间范围内,这个世界在许多重要参数上都经历了令人难以置信的巨大进步。只不过坏消息是一个事件或标题,而好消息是一个过程或统计数据。而坏消息,比起统计数据,能够成为一个更生动和引人注目的故事。</p><h2 id=\"id_3230055958\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">二、悲观者正确,乐观者赚钱</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">记住,悲观主义者听起来很聪明,但乐观主义者才能赚钱。商业是文明的根本支柱。当我们投资股票时,我们参与了商业并支持它的持续发展。着眼于大局的人,长远来看会成功。另一些只关注危机的人则会在最糟糕的时候变得神经过敏,错失了有希望的财富创造机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者应该学习一下巴菲特的投资哲学,他认为关注个体企业至关重要,不要理会那些关于加息、通胀猛增、股市崩盘、石油冲击、政府倒台、衰退、萧条甚至全面战争的喧嚣。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在1994年致股东的信中写道 :</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们会继续忽略政治和经济预测,因为它们会分散投资者和商人的注意力,且代价昂贵。30年前,没人能预见到越战爆发、工资和物价管制、油价两次震荡,没人能预知总统辞职、苏联解体,也没人知道道指会单日下跌508点,或国债收益率在2.8%至17.4%的区间内波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但令人惊讶的是,<strong>这些轰动全球的大事件既没有影响本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资准则,也没有影响投资者用合理价格买入优质资产。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">想象一下,如果我们被未知恐惧战胜,推迟或改变了资本配置,我们将付出多大代价。事实证明,我们往往能在大事件引发的恐慌到达顶点时,成交最划算的买卖。恐慌是狂热者的敌人,也是市场基本准则遵守者的朋友。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在未来的30年里,肯定会发生一系列不同的重大冲击。我们既不会试图预测这些,也不会从中获利。如果我们能识别出与我们过去收购的企业相似的企业,外部的意外对我们的长期业绩几乎没有影响。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他在2012年的信中指出 :</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">送给我的CEO伙伴们的一点想法是:毫无疑问,近期的未来永远是充满不确定性的,美国从1776年开始就一直面对各种不确定性。只不过有时候人们非常在意数不胜数的、一直存在的各种不确定性,而另外一些时候,他们却无视不确定性(通常是因为那段时间一切顺利)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国的商业前景光明。股票也一定会表现良好,因为它们的命运是和公司的业绩紧密联系在一起的。周期性的困难在所难免,但是投资者和经理人处在一个由他们的喜好所影响的游戏中。(道琼斯工业指数在20世纪里从66涨到了11497,其间经历了四次损失惨重的战争,一次大萧条和多次的衰退,最终依然螺旋上升了17320%。而且不要忘了,投资者还收到了不少的分红。)</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因为这个游戏是如此的诱人,查理和我认为尝试跟随塔罗牌的排列、“专家”的预测,或者商业周期进进出出是一个巨大的错误。错过这个游戏的风险比待在里面要大得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为什么巴菲特总是强调投资者参与的游戏“非常有利于他们”?请看图26.2。如果超过两个世纪的数据都不能让你相信巴菲特说的是真的,那么可能就没有什么能让你相信了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">请看图26.2,我们就能清楚地理解巴菲特为什么警告不要将持有的现金等价物和以货币计价的金融工具视为无风险资产,因为长期持有它们实际上风险很大。巴菲特认为风险是购买力的丧失。而被广泛鼓吹为能够提供零风险回报的债券,如今的定价也提供了零回报的风险。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dcb55d639042e00bbfa950deb994e08\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"374\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>每当媒体让我对当前的大趋势产生怀疑、绝望或恐惧时,我就会把注意力集中在更大的趋势上。</strong>如果你希望能够长期对股市保持坚定的信心,那么你也需要更加关注这个长期趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">更宏观的形势告诉我们,两个多世纪以来,尽管发生了各种大灾难和小灾难,也尽管人们不断给出各种各样的理由来解释世界末日可能即将到来,但股票平均每年给所有者带来6.5%以上的实际收益,远高于美国国债、债券、黄金和全球储备货币。历史清楚地表明,股票提供了最高的长期实际回报。相对于其他类别的资产,它们的优势是完全压倒性的。从长远来看,对这些信息采取行动要比对不断预测即将到来的大萧条的评论者和咨询服务的意见和建议做出反应有利得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">霍华德·马克斯在1993年2月写给橡树资本客户的备忘录中写道:“从1926年到1987年,股票的平均年回报率为9.44%。但如果你去兑现,错过了这744个月中最好的50个月,你就错过了所有的回报。这告诉我,试图把握市场时机是风险的来源,而并非是保护措施。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为对大幅回调的回应,市场专家通常会说些这样的话,比如:“短期前景并不明朗……存在很多全球性的不确定因素……股票价格可能进一步下跌,所以要等待一段时间,直到更多因素变得明朗……等到流动性状况好转。要等到选举结束……目前政治局势充满不确定性。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>换句话说就是“静观其变”。对于那些既想享受在牛市中股价抬升带来的狂喜,又想避免在熊市中承受股价下跌带来的痛苦的投资者来说,这条特别的建议往往代价高昂。</strong>更高的股市回报不是以统一的方式累积的。相反,它们往往可以追溯到几个时期叠加的突然爆发的力量。此外,任何人都无法准确预测这些时期的开始时机和持续时间。牛市总收益的很大一部分往往发生在市场恢复的初始阶段。如果投资者当时没有参与市场,他/她很可能会错过收益的很大一部分。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">赛奇投资顾问公司(SageOne Investment Advisors)的一项研究显示,尽管印度股票指数(Sensex)在1979年至2017年期间上涨了251倍(年化回报率为15.5%),但如果你错过了最好的几个月中上涨的7%,或者最好的几天中的1%,你的回报就会是零。作为从股票中获得高回报要付出的代价,投资者需要承受周期性的下行波动。市场中的时间长度很重要,而不是把握市场的时机。重要的是,你要有能力每隔一段时间坚持投资,无论市场起落涨跌,不要担心明天、下周或下个月市场走势如何。很简单。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这很简单,但并不容易做到。</p><h2 id=\"id_1414661985\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">三、读历史!读历史!读历史!</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>情绪不能被反测 ;这就是为什么从现在看来,之前所有的熊市以及随之而来的彼时普遍的低价股票估值,都是唾手可得的机会。</strong>从1980年上市到2012年,苹果公司的市值达到了225亿美元。一笔1万美元的投资变成了225万美元。但如果一位投资者连续两次下跌超过80%,且数次下跌超过40%,他肯定会受不了。即便是像费尔法克斯金融(Fairfax Financial)这样杰出的公司,截至2019年9月,已经交付回报率为18%(33年的复合年增长率),1999年至2002年期间,该公司股价下跌近80%,这4年中每一年的回报率都为负。你认为有多少投资者能在股市连续4年下跌80%的情况下坚持住?人们对下行波动性的容忍度是不同的——无论是他们认为的大规模下跌还是市场的实际下跌。[所有投资者都应该读一读摩根·豪泽尔在Motley Fool上发表的文章《高回报的痛苦》(The Agony of High Returns)。]股票市场是唯一一个这样的市场,当里面的东西大减价时,人们会从商店里跑出来。在市场陷入慌乱和恐慌的时候,不要理会那些权威人士和专家的可怕预测和不断敦促,让你最好赶快套现,特别是当你拥有大量未实现收益的时候(也就是你在盈利和套现方面的诱惑达到顶峰的时候)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">行话是金融界的首选方法,因为它能让人听起来更聪明。比如,华尔街有句格言 :“不要和美联储作对”(也就是说,如果美联储正在收紧政策,不要做多;如果美联储正在降息,不要做空)。听起来既直观又合乎逻辑,对吧?现在,请参考以下内容:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、2001年1月3日:美联储降息50个基点,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX.US\">标普500指数 </a>收于1347点。从那时到2002年10月的最低点,它下跌了43%,而美联储则一路下调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、2007年9月18日:美联储降息50个基点,标普500指数收于1519点。从那时到2009年3月的最低点,它下跌了56%,而美联储则一路下调利率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3、2004年6月30日:美联储加息25个基点,标普500指数收于1140点。从那时到2007年9月降息,利率上升了33%,而美联储又加息16次以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4、2015年12月16日:美联储加息25个基点,标普500指数收于2073点。从那时到2019年7月降息,利率上升了45%,而美联储又加息了8次以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在,让我们来看看商业媒体上常见的评论:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1、“由于利率上升,市场正在转弱。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2、“从历史上看,股市在利率上升期间表现良好。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你可以选择自己喜欢的叙事方式(这可能会受到你个人经历的影响)。在利率上升导致市场急剧下跌的时期,媒体中大多数听起来聪明的声音很可能会选择第一种选择。除非市场完全无动于衷,否则加息的消息就不会出现在新闻头条。事实上,在这段时间里,一些专家可能会用历史图表或表格来说明牛市过去的上升期利率环境证明第二种选择是正确的。市场先动。以下是相关的合理解释。一直如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>艰难的现实是,股市想做什么就做什么。投资者不应沉迷于高频宏观指标。只需关注单个企业及其行业发展。这是最好的办法。仅此而已。要始终保持谦虚和理智诚实。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者往往会在脑海中一遍又一遍地重现他们最近遭受重创的市场时刻,而这些记忆最终会决定这些投资者未来的行为。这一章中的例子清楚地说明了为什么坚实的历史基础对于培养金融市场周期性错位所需的钢铁般的神经至关重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我在南加州大学研究生院的投资课上遇到了查理·芒格,有幸问了他一个重要问题:<strong>“如果我能做一件事,让自己成为一名更好的投资专业人士,我应该做什么?”他回答说:“读历史!读历史!读历史!”这是我收到的最好的建议之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研究历史的目的,首先是要让我们意识到某些我们原本不会考虑的可能性。很多时候,我们会对有生之年尚未发生的事情感到惊讶,尽管所谓的前所未有的事件在历史上可能已经发生过多次。与其徒劳地试图预测未来,我们应该努力从过去吸取尽可能多的教训。研究历史并获得相关基准率,即较长时间范围内相关统计组的历史数据。这种做法有助于避免近因效应和生动性偏差,因为当今世界的特点是,尽管经济周期无处不在,但人们的财务记忆却极为短暂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从历史的角度考虑问题,投资者的理性就会将超越他们的情感。这也是成功投资的唯一途径。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1718164085300","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特:市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n巴菲特:市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-18 22:44 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kd8mqt7cIuMdbFNbEJjsLg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D><strong>巴伦中文</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>导读:我在南加州大学研究生院的投资课上遇到了查理·芒格,有幸问了他一个重要问题:“如果我能做一件事,让自己成为一名更好的投资专业人士,我应该做什么?”他回答说:“读历史!读历史!读历史!”这是我收到的最好的建议之一。比起最令人印象深刻的历史证据,恐惧更能把握人类的行为。沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:“市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包。”想想2009年以来,如果你听信了那些商业媒体高度赞扬...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kd8mqt7cIuMdbFNbEJjsLg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f8d9f4c52aa5b01fcfd823d1f549d9d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Kd8mqt7cIuMdbFNbEJjsLg?global_content=%7B%22promote_id%22%3A13766%2C%22sub_promote_id%22%3A29%7D","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139091109","content_text":"导读:我在南加州大学研究生院的投资课上遇到了查理·芒格,有幸问了他一个重要问题:“如果我能做一件事,让自己成为一名更好的投资专业人士,我应该做什么?”他回答说:“读历史!读历史!读历史!”这是我收到的最好的建议之一。比起最令人印象深刻的历史证据,恐惧更能把握人类的行为。沃伦·巴菲特曾说过:“市场预测者的言论会充满你的耳朵,但绝不会填满你的钱包。”想想2009年以来,如果你听信了那些商业媒体高度赞扬的所谓市场专家,你的钱包会受到多大的伤害。资料来源:摩根· 豪泽尔,“容易的金钱”一、预测是一种强迫性欲望媒体界那些看起来无比自信的权威人士,尽管大多数时间都错了,却没有受到一丁点怀疑。你有没有想过,为什么电视主持人和市场专家会日复一日地做出如此多的预测?他们为什么如此乐于做出这些预测呢?贾森·茨威格在他的著作《投资的怪圈》(Your Money and Your Brain)中解释了人类不断进行预测的冲动 :“正如大自然厌恶真空一样,人们讨厌随机。人类对不可预知的事情做出预测的冲动源于大脑反射区的多巴胺中枢。我把这种人类倾向称为‘预测成瘾’。”这种趋势是由我们大脑中一种叫作多巴胺的愉悦化学物质驱动的,它的释放会给我们一种自然的冲动来做出下一个预测,然后一个接一个预测下去。就像茨威格解释的那样,预测成瘾是一种强迫性的欲望,它想从世界上所有的事情中找出意义,包括那些不可能预测的事情,比如未来的股价。(当被问及市场会做什么时,传奇人物J. P.摩根表示:“市场会波动。”)我们谁也无法预测自己的未来。尽管如此,我们仍然会被控制的假象所迷惑,试图预测宏观经济、市场、货币和大宗商品价格。投资作家丹·索林在为《赫芬顿邮报》(Huffington Post)撰写的一篇文章中谈到了预测成瘾 :“这种成瘾特别严重。我们的大脑不仅天生相信我们可以预测未来,从随机行为中找出道理,大脑还会因为这样的行为而回报我们。从事这种活动的人,其大脑会体验到和赌徒进入赌场时一样的愉悦。”预测上瘾者之于投资者,就像赌场之于赌徒。试试这个有趣的练习 :上网搜索一下,在过去几年中随机选择的某个时间段内,看看市场专家对某个宏观主题的预测及其结果。你就再也不会把这些人当回事了。预测只会吸引眼球,除此之外什么也做不到。人们常说,牛市会使得担忧之墙高筑。自2009年3月以来,无数令人担忧的新闻头条驱使许多投资者出于恐惧抛售股票,彻底退出市场。坏消息的传播速度是好消息的10倍,这是仅仅捕捉市场回报如此困难的最大原因之一。大家可能会认为,这么做很简单,只需购买大盘指数基金,然后不管它。原因很简单,但肯定没那么简单,因为坏消息会把你的脸贴在放大器上,而好消息只是在背景中静静地播放。除了少数例外,人类的大多数奇迹都是长期的、人为的事件。进步是一点一滴得来的。人类进步的无声奇迹是:一步接一步,一年又一年,世界在进步。不是按照每一年一个指标,但总会进步。尽管世界面临巨大挑战,但我们取得了巨大进展。这是基于事实的世界观。过去20年来,我们已经将全球极端贫困人口减少了一半,但“贫困率呈递增趋势下降”这一说法从未在新闻头条占据主导地位。当一个趋势随着时间的推移而逐渐改善,并出现周期性的急剧下跌时,人们更有可能注意到的是下降而不是整体改进。新闻媒体倾向于聚焦于生动的事件——戏剧性的、悲剧性的——而不是世界上的每日进步和日常美德。新闻频道争相以生动的故事和戏剧性的叙述来吸引我们的注意力。他们倾向于关注不寻常的而不是普遍的事物,关注新的或暂时的而不是缓慢变化的模式。根本性的改善虽然是改变世界的大事,但如果进展太慢、太分散或太小,就很难称为新闻。流传最快的故事往往带有恐惧或愤怒的成分,会逐渐灌输一种无助感。打开任何新闻频道或上社交媒体。你可能听说过或读到过政治不稳定、市场动荡、自然灾害、谋杀、自杀、疾病暴发、地缘政治紧张局势以及一长串坏消息。人们经常把当今时代称为“有史以来最糟糕的时代”,但这些人显然从来没有读过历史书。消极倾向和可得性偏见的结合导致了对世界普遍的悲观。然而,实际上,我们生活在人类历史上最有希望的时代之一。在你观察的几乎所有长期时间范围内,这个世界在许多重要参数上都经历了令人难以置信的巨大进步。只不过坏消息是一个事件或标题,而好消息是一个过程或统计数据。而坏消息,比起统计数据,能够成为一个更生动和引人注目的故事。二、悲观者正确,乐观者赚钱记住,悲观主义者听起来很聪明,但乐观主义者才能赚钱。商业是文明的根本支柱。当我们投资股票时,我们参与了商业并支持它的持续发展。着眼于大局的人,长远来看会成功。另一些只关注危机的人则会在最糟糕的时候变得神经过敏,错失了有希望的财富创造机会。投资者应该学习一下巴菲特的投资哲学,他认为关注个体企业至关重要,不要理会那些关于加息、通胀猛增、股市崩盘、石油冲击、政府倒台、衰退、萧条甚至全面战争的喧嚣。他在1994年致股东的信中写道 :我们会继续忽略政治和经济预测,因为它们会分散投资者和商人的注意力,且代价昂贵。30年前,没人能预见到越战爆发、工资和物价管制、油价两次震荡,没人能预知总统辞职、苏联解体,也没人知道道指会单日下跌508点,或国债收益率在2.8%至17.4%的区间内波动。但令人惊讶的是,这些轰动全球的大事件既没有影响本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资准则,也没有影响投资者用合理价格买入优质资产。想象一下,如果我们被未知恐惧战胜,推迟或改变了资本配置,我们将付出多大代价。事实证明,我们往往能在大事件引发的恐慌到达顶点时,成交最划算的买卖。恐慌是狂热者的敌人,也是市场基本准则遵守者的朋友。在未来的30年里,肯定会发生一系列不同的重大冲击。我们既不会试图预测这些,也不会从中获利。如果我们能识别出与我们过去收购的企业相似的企业,外部的意外对我们的长期业绩几乎没有影响。他在2012年的信中指出 :送给我的CEO伙伴们的一点想法是:毫无疑问,近期的未来永远是充满不确定性的,美国从1776年开始就一直面对各种不确定性。只不过有时候人们非常在意数不胜数的、一直存在的各种不确定性,而另外一些时候,他们却无视不确定性(通常是因为那段时间一切顺利)。美国的商业前景光明。股票也一定会表现良好,因为它们的命运是和公司的业绩紧密联系在一起的。周期性的困难在所难免,但是投资者和经理人处在一个由他们的喜好所影响的游戏中。(道琼斯工业指数在20世纪里从66涨到了11497,其间经历了四次损失惨重的战争,一次大萧条和多次的衰退,最终依然螺旋上升了17320%。而且不要忘了,投资者还收到了不少的分红。)因为这个游戏是如此的诱人,查理和我认为尝试跟随塔罗牌的排列、“专家”的预测,或者商业周期进进出出是一个巨大的错误。错过这个游戏的风险比待在里面要大得多。为什么巴菲特总是强调投资者参与的游戏“非常有利于他们”?请看图26.2。如果超过两个世纪的数据都不能让你相信巴菲特说的是真的,那么可能就没有什么能让你相信了。请看图26.2,我们就能清楚地理解巴菲特为什么警告不要将持有的现金等价物和以货币计价的金融工具视为无风险资产,因为长期持有它们实际上风险很大。巴菲特认为风险是购买力的丧失。而被广泛鼓吹为能够提供零风险回报的债券,如今的定价也提供了零回报的风险。每当媒体让我对当前的大趋势产生怀疑、绝望或恐惧时,我就会把注意力集中在更大的趋势上。如果你希望能够长期对股市保持坚定的信心,那么你也需要更加关注这个长期趋势。更宏观的形势告诉我们,两个多世纪以来,尽管发生了各种大灾难和小灾难,也尽管人们不断给出各种各样的理由来解释世界末日可能即将到来,但股票平均每年给所有者带来6.5%以上的实际收益,远高于美国国债、债券、黄金和全球储备货币。历史清楚地表明,股票提供了最高的长期实际回报。相对于其他类别的资产,它们的优势是完全压倒性的。从长远来看,对这些信息采取行动要比对不断预测即将到来的大萧条的评论者和咨询服务的意见和建议做出反应有利得多。霍华德·马克斯在1993年2月写给橡树资本客户的备忘录中写道:“从1926年到1987年,股票的平均年回报率为9.44%。但如果你去兑现,错过了这744个月中最好的50个月,你就错过了所有的回报。这告诉我,试图把握市场时机是风险的来源,而并非是保护措施。”作为对大幅回调的回应,市场专家通常会说些这样的话,比如:“短期前景并不明朗……存在很多全球性的不确定因素……股票价格可能进一步下跌,所以要等待一段时间,直到更多因素变得明朗……等到流动性状况好转。要等到选举结束……目前政治局势充满不确定性。”换句话说就是“静观其变”。对于那些既想享受在牛市中股价抬升带来的狂喜,又想避免在熊市中承受股价下跌带来的痛苦的投资者来说,这条特别的建议往往代价高昂。更高的股市回报不是以统一的方式累积的。相反,它们往往可以追溯到几个时期叠加的突然爆发的力量。此外,任何人都无法准确预测这些时期的开始时机和持续时间。牛市总收益的很大一部分往往发生在市场恢复的初始阶段。如果投资者当时没有参与市场,他/她很可能会错过收益的很大一部分。赛奇投资顾问公司(SageOne Investment Advisors)的一项研究显示,尽管印度股票指数(Sensex)在1979年至2017年期间上涨了251倍(年化回报率为15.5%),但如果你错过了最好的几个月中上涨的7%,或者最好的几天中的1%,你的回报就会是零。作为从股票中获得高回报要付出的代价,投资者需要承受周期性的下行波动。市场中的时间长度很重要,而不是把握市场的时机。重要的是,你要有能力每隔一段时间坚持投资,无论市场起落涨跌,不要担心明天、下周或下个月市场走势如何。很简单。这很简单,但并不容易做到。三、读历史!读历史!读历史!情绪不能被反测 ;这就是为什么从现在看来,之前所有的熊市以及随之而来的彼时普遍的低价股票估值,都是唾手可得的机会。从1980年上市到2012年,苹果公司的市值达到了225亿美元。一笔1万美元的投资变成了225万美元。但如果一位投资者连续两次下跌超过80%,且数次下跌超过40%,他肯定会受不了。即便是像费尔法克斯金融(Fairfax Financial)这样杰出的公司,截至2019年9月,已经交付回报率为18%(33年的复合年增长率),1999年至2002年期间,该公司股价下跌近80%,这4年中每一年的回报率都为负。你认为有多少投资者能在股市连续4年下跌80%的情况下坚持住?人们对下行波动性的容忍度是不同的——无论是他们认为的大规模下跌还是市场的实际下跌。[所有投资者都应该读一读摩根·豪泽尔在Motley Fool上发表的文章《高回报的痛苦》(The Agony of High Returns)。]股票市场是唯一一个这样的市场,当里面的东西大减价时,人们会从商店里跑出来。在市场陷入慌乱和恐慌的时候,不要理会那些权威人士和专家的可怕预测和不断敦促,让你最好赶快套现,特别是当你拥有大量未实现收益的时候(也就是你在盈利和套现方面的诱惑达到顶峰的时候)。行话是金融界的首选方法,因为它能让人听起来更聪明。比如,华尔街有句格言 :“不要和美联储作对”(也就是说,如果美联储正在收紧政策,不要做多;如果美联储正在降息,不要做空)。听起来既直观又合乎逻辑,对吧?现在,请参考以下内容:1、2001年1月3日:美联储降息50个基点,标普500指数 收于1347点。从那时到2002年10月的最低点,它下跌了43%,而美联储则一路下调。2、2007年9月18日:美联储降息50个基点,标普500指数收于1519点。从那时到2009年3月的最低点,它下跌了56%,而美联储则一路下调利率。3、2004年6月30日:美联储加息25个基点,标普500指数收于1140点。从那时到2007年9月降息,利率上升了33%,而美联储又加息16次以上。4、2015年12月16日:美联储加息25个基点,标普500指数收于2073点。从那时到2019年7月降息,利率上升了45%,而美联储又加息了8次以上。现在,让我们来看看商业媒体上常见的评论:1、“由于利率上升,市场正在转弱。”2、“从历史上看,股市在利率上升期间表现良好。”你可以选择自己喜欢的叙事方式(这可能会受到你个人经历的影响)。在利率上升导致市场急剧下跌的时期,媒体中大多数听起来聪明的声音很可能会选择第一种选择。除非市场完全无动于衷,否则加息的消息就不会出现在新闻头条。事实上,在这段时间里,一些专家可能会用历史图表或表格来说明牛市过去的上升期利率环境证明第二种选择是正确的。市场先动。以下是相关的合理解释。一直如此。艰难的现实是,股市想做什么就做什么。投资者不应沉迷于高频宏观指标。只需关注单个企业及其行业发展。这是最好的办法。仅此而已。要始终保持谦虚和理智诚实。投资者往往会在脑海中一遍又一遍地重现他们最近遭受重创的市场时刻,而这些记忆最终会决定这些投资者未来的行为。这一章中的例子清楚地说明了为什么坚实的历史基础对于培养金融市场周期性错位所需的钢铁般的神经至关重要。我在南加州大学研究生院的投资课上遇到了查理·芒格,有幸问了他一个重要问题:“如果我能做一件事,让自己成为一名更好的投资专业人士,我应该做什么?”他回答说:“读历史!读历史!读历史!”这是我收到的最好的建议之一。研究历史的目的,首先是要让我们意识到某些我们原本不会考虑的可能性。很多时候,我们会对有生之年尚未发生的事情感到惊讶,尽管所谓的前所未有的事件在历史上可能已经发生过多次。与其徒劳地试图预测未来,我们应该努力从过去吸取尽可能多的教训。研究历史并获得相关基准率,即较长时间范围内相关统计组的历史数据。这种做法有助于避免近因效应和生动性偏差,因为当今世界的特点是,尽管经济周期无处不在,但人们的财务记忆却极为短暂。从历史的角度考虑问题,投资者的理性就会将超越他们的情感。这也是成功投资的唯一途径。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"338569338738045","authorId":"338569338738045","name":"小韭菜新鲜上市","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"338569338738045","authorIdStr":"338569338738045"},"content":"啥才叫做空一个国家?卖出某支国企股票吗?做空自己的国家本身就是伪命题 [捂脸]","text":"啥才叫做空一个国家?卖出某支国企股票吗?做空自己的国家本身就是伪命题 [捂脸]","html":"啥才叫做空一个国家?卖出某支国企股票吗?做空自己的国家本身就是伪命题 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301180828,"gmtCreate":1603390175664,"gmtModify":1703829817111,"author":{"id":"3506948889320581","authorId":"3506948889320581","name":"旨在实现小目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d8e7066710b70c03e0d99edce124ff","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506948889320581","authorIdStr":"3506948889320581"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当我卖掉的一刻,心里蹦出[微笑] [微笑] 怎么去拥抱一道彩虹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>","listText":"当我卖掉的一刻,心里蹦出[微笑] [微笑] 怎么去拥抱一道彩虹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$Snap Inc(SNAP)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a>","text":"当我卖掉的一刻,心里蹦出[微笑] [微笑] 怎么去拥抱一道彩虹$苹果(AAPL)$$Snap 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有救嘛[傲娇] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","listText":"还… 有救嘛[傲娇] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>","text":"还… 有救嘛[傲娇] 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是要有的,睡觉去了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a55c9a4a8382536ba3a7cf79bf7140fc","width":"1242","height":"2688"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/993603262","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993925547,"gmtCreate":1563777195889,"gmtModify":1704705911161,"author":{"id":"3506948889320581","authorId":"3506948889320581","name":"旨在实现小目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d8e7066710b70c03e0d99edce124ff","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506948889320581","authorIdStr":"3506948889320581"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我就笑着坐在山腰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">$花旗(C)$</a><a 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??"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":993003885,"gmtCreate":1563546444647,"gmtModify":1704705699527,"author":{"id":"3506948889320581","authorId":"3506948889320581","name":"旨在实现小目标","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d8e7066710b70c03e0d99edce124ff","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506948889320581","authorIdStr":"3506948889320581"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK0072\">$苹果(BK0072)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMK\">$AssetMark Financial Holdings, Inc.(AMK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK0076\">$特斯拉(BK0076)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$威瑞森(VZ)$</a>今晚有肉吃了…","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK0072\">$苹果(BK0072)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMK\">$AssetMark Financial Holdings, Inc.(AMK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK0076\">$特斯拉(BK0076)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$威瑞森(VZ)$</a>今晚有肉吃了…","text":"$波音(BA)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$苹果(BK0072)$$AssetMark Financial Holdings, 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