没有钱吃饭的个人主页 - 老虎社区

没有钱吃饭

没有钱吃饭

珍爱生命，远离中概

IP属地：北京

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没有钱吃饭

2022-03-31

现在新闻都能这么发了？市场消息，可能？

市场消息：金山云可能进行一亿美元的回购

没有钱吃饭

2022-03-29

$Genius Group Limited(GNS)$就这？

没有钱吃饭

2022-03-15

接力啊[难过] [难过] [难过] [难过]

热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%

没有钱吃饭

2021-12-03

$滴滴(DIDI)$别在幻想什么高价私有化了，找个拉高的机会跑吧第一，滴滴亏损，钱一直花，没有钱回购的第二，要准备应对美国投资者无穷无尽的官司，想跑没那么容易第三，香港跟美国流动性没有可比性，滴滴这类公司，在港股对应2000亿就不错了千万别信放出的高价私有化消息接盘[白眼]

没有钱吃饭

2021-11-23

$云音乐(09899)$出城剿匪，黄老爷出多少，两大家族必须出多少。大户的钱如数奉还，散户的钱三七分成[暗中观察] [暗中观察]

没有钱吃饭

2021-08-19

$心玮医疗-B(06609)$负18！！！

没有钱吃饭

2021-08-06

凭啥一级市场看好，让二级市场接盘，一级看好自己接盘去啊

快手市值蒸发万亿背后：一二级市场估值倒挂

没有钱吃饭

2021-08-03

this is a good joke

@Woooooo:$TENCENT(00700)$tencent become ten cent

没有钱吃饭

2021-08-03

$滴滴(DIDI)$违背了基本的原则，一个服务几亿人的公司，也可以说倒闭就倒闭，学学老一辈的做人吧尤其是已经穿鞋的人

没有钱吃饭

2021-03-27

$知乎(ZH)$b糊不敢开盘了。。。。

没有钱吃饭

2021-03-26

按照2050年pe，给予1000目标价！

抱歉，原内容已删除

没有钱吃饭

2021-02-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎🐮[龇牙]

没有钱吃饭

2021-01-15

$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$看看开盘，直接搞进去

没有钱吃饭

2021-01-14

$稻草熊娱乐(02125)$选我选我

没有钱吃饭

2020-06-12

$燃石医学(BNR)$牛虎！！！

没有钱吃饭

2020-04-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$2019一共营收约50亿左右，22亿造假，厉害了我的小蓝

没有钱吃饭

2019-11-05

$青客(QK)$ 赌5毛钱，青客红盘收

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a>可能会回购价值1亿美元的美国存托凭证(ADRs)。</p><p>截至发稿，金山云盘前涨2.7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fbf792d0c3e6458b6e22ca75d699fc8\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca86fd37930626800f86321addf9d012","relate_stocks":{"KC":"金山云"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107688126","content_text":"市场消息：金山云可能会回购价值1亿美元的美国存托凭证(ADRs)。截至发稿，金山云盘前涨2.7%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":610882288,"gmtCreate":1648548576667,"gmtModify":1648548576667,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNS\">$Genius Group Limited(GNS)$</a>就这？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GNS\">$Genius Group Limited(GNS)$</a>就这？","text":"$Genius Group Limited(GNS)$就这？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5a4edcba609a28de7abd2cebd1d04d","width":"1176","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610882288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"37000856390400","authorId":"37000856390400","name":"小虎通知","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/40ff9573326cbdce8ed2a4976ed63455","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"37000856390400","authorIdStr":"37000856390400"},"content":"尊敬的用户您好，接发行人通知，您申购的Genius Group[GNS]由于发行信息发生重大调整，您的认购订单已被取消，认购资金已释放，您可在TigerTrade留意后续开放申购通知。如有任何问题请联系：400-603-7555。","text":"尊敬的用户您好，接发行人通知，您申购的Genius Group[GNS]由于发行信息发生重大调整，您的认购订单已被取消，认购资金已释放，您可在TigerTrade留意后续开放申购通知。如有任何问题请联系：400-603-7555。","html":"尊敬的用户您好，接发行人通知，您申购的Genius Group[GNS]由于发行信息发生重大调整，您的认购订单已被取消，认购资金已释放，您可在TigerTrade留意后续开放申购通知。如有任何问题请联系：400-603-7555。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":634926668,"gmtCreate":1647331662671,"gmtModify":1647331662671,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"接力啊[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","listText":"接力啊[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;[难过]&nbsp;","text":"接力啊[难过] [难过] [难过] [难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/634926668","repostId":"1170488405","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170488405","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1647331351,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170488405?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-15 16:02","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170488405","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月15日，热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%，阿里巴巴、百度跌超5%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，京东跌超3%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日，热门中概股盘前延续跌势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876c1efc5de1cee015bc3e86221d88a9\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-15 16:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月15日，热门中概股盘前延续跌势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/876c1efc5de1cee015bc3e86221d88a9\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"BK4558":"双十一","BK4509":"腾讯概念","PDD":"拼多多","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170488405","content_text":"3月15日，热门中概股盘前延续跌势，拼多多跌超6%，阿里巴巴、百度跌超5%，哔哩哔哩跌超4%，京东跌超3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601262173,"gmtCreate":1638536476530,"gmtModify":1638536476530,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>别在幻想什么高价私有化了，找个拉高的机会跑吧第一，滴滴亏损，钱一直花，没有钱回购的第二，要准备应对美国投资者无穷无尽的官司，想跑没那么容易第三，香港跟美国流动性没有可比性，滴滴这类公司，在港股对应2000亿就不错了千万别信放出的高价私有化消息接盘[白眼]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>别在幻想什么高价私有化了，找个拉高的机会跑吧第一，滴滴亏损，钱一直花，没有钱回购的第二，要准备应对美国投资者无穷无尽的官司，想跑没那么容易第三，香港跟美国流动性没有可比性，滴滴这类公司，在港股对应2000亿就不错了千万别信放出的高价私有化消息接盘[白眼]&nbsp;","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$别在幻想什么高价私有化了，找个拉高的机会跑吧第一，滴滴亏损，钱一直花，没有钱回购的第二，要准备应对美国投资者无穷无尽的官司，想跑没那么容易第三，香港跟美国流动性没有可比性，滴滴这类公司，在港股对应2000亿就不错了千万别信放出的高价私有化消息接盘[白眼]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601262173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875601733,"gmtCreate":1637637802781,"gmtModify":1637637802781,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09899\">$云音乐(09899)$</a>出城剿匪，黄老爷出多少，两大家族必须出多少。大户的钱如数奉还，散户的钱三七分成[暗中观察]&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09899\">$云音乐(09899)$</a>出城剿匪，黄老爷出多少，两大家族必须出多少。大户的钱如数奉还，散户的钱三七分成[暗中观察]&nbsp;[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"$云音乐(09899)$出城剿匪，黄老爷出多少，两大家族必须出多少。大户的钱如数奉还，散户的钱三七分成[暗中观察] [暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875601733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838055172,"gmtCreate":1629360983396,"gmtModify":1629360983396,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06609\">$心玮医疗-B(06609)$</a>负18！！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06609\">$心玮医疗-B(06609)$</a>负18！！！","text":"$心玮医疗-B(06609)$负18！！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838055172","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893006977,"gmtCreate":1628218447499,"gmtModify":1628218447499,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"凭啥一级市场看好，让二级市场接盘，一级看好自己接盘去啊","listText":"凭啥一级市场看好，让二级市场接盘，一级看好自己接盘去啊","text":"凭啥一级市场看好，让二级市场接盘，一级看好自己接盘去啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893006977","repostId":"1187518828","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187518828","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"《深网》是一档原创深度报道栏目，挖掘TMT领域热门公司、事件和人物中的隐秘故事，探究背后的深层逻辑。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深网腾讯新闻","id":"1045161675","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79fb4e017d55411483d940659131729e"},"pubTimestamp":1628216211,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187518828?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 10:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"快手市值蒸发万亿背后：一二级市场估值倒挂","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187518828","media":"深网腾讯新闻","summary":"港股集体大跌的背景下，快手无疑是跌幅最大的那个。\n“短视频第一股”快手从7月26日首次跌破发行价以来，股价持续下行，8月5日收盘价为89.1港元/股，已经较最高点417.8港元/股跌去约78%，总市值","content":"<p>港股集体大跌的背景下，快手无疑是跌幅最大的那个。</p>\n<p>“短视频第一股”快手从7月26日首次跌破发行价以来，股价持续下行，<b>8月5日收盘价为89.1港元/股，已经较最高点417.8港元/股跌去约78%，总市值从最高点1.738万亿港元跌至3706.7亿港元，蒸发近1.4万亿港元。</b></p>\n<p>而6月30日在港交所挂牌的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>，上市即破发，发行价19.8港元/股，当日收盘价17.12港元/股，跌幅达13.54%。随后便进入跌跌不停的状态，最新报价9.640港元/股。</p>\n<p>不仅仅是奈雪的茶，财联社的一份统计数据显示，2020年1月1日至2021年5月7日，共有23家中概股企业赴美上市，截至5月7日收盘，股价低过发行价的有18家，破发率高达78%。</p>\n<p>一位二级市场基金经理告诉《深网》，面粉比面包贵，一二级市场估值倒挂成为普遍现象。</p>\n<p><b>“所谓的估值倒挂，是一二级市场两种估值体系的对抗，二级市场无情的定价机制熄灭了一级市场的虚火”，</b>智通财经CEO张欢表示。</p>\n<p>国内某大型投资银行香港券商业务负责人告诉《深网》，一些新经济公司香港上市当日破发，一是国内新经济企业在一级市场的估值在二级市场不被认可，二是表明香港市场投资者对新经济企业的理解还需时日。</p>\n<p><b>一级市场虚火旺</b></p>\n<p>2015年底，奈雪的第一家门店落地深圳。今年2月11日，奈雪向港交所递交招股书，冲击“茶饮第一股”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89778ee077d4832d9977b1075c0d38c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据公告，奈雪的茶招股价区间定为17.20-19.80港元，按照这个价格计算，奈雪的茶上市的市值将达到295-340亿港元。奈雪的茶上市前最后一轮的融资是去年12月，据彭博报道，该轮融资后奈雪估值达到20亿美元，约130亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>仅仅半年，奈雪的茶估值翻了一倍。奈雪的茶招股书显示，2017-2020年期间，奈雪共完成了5轮融资，投资方包括天图资本、SCGC资本、深创投、PAG太盟投资等。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶值300多亿吗？二级市场的机构投资者和基石投资者和一级市场的风险投资者是看好茶饮赛道的。根据灼识咨询数据，2020年中国茶市场规模约4107亿元，其中现制茶饮约1136亿元，渗透率不断提升。</p>\n<p>当然也有人觉得不值。据21世纪经济报道，有香港基金经理直言：“奈雪的茶估值偏贵，市值降到200多亿港元才比较合理。”</p>\n<p>上市当日，奈雪的茶破发。不仅仅是奈雪的茶，6月25日，“生鲜电商第一股”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>登陆纳斯达克，在上市当天开盘暴跌25%、盘中一度跌至40%后，每日优鲜还收获了“连跌三天”的现状。同样破发的还有4月赴美上市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹。</p>\n<p><b>“太多的钱从二级市场涌到了一级市场，一级市场抬高了估值，透支了独角兽公司可能未来一两年的业绩，因此很多公司可能上市就破发。”</b>金沙江创投合伙人朱啸虎对《财约你》分析指出。</p>\n<p>相对于“茶饮第一股”奈雪的茶的遭遇，快手的上市可谓是天时地利人和。</p>\n<p>快手2012年创立，2020年11月5日，融资9轮的快手终于向港交所提交了IPO申请。而快手的最近一轮融资发生在2019年12月份，融资金额接近30亿美元，公司估值达到了286亿美元。而快手上市前的估值介于556亿至609亿美元。</p>\n<p>一年时间，快手的估值也翻了一番。2月5日，被誉为“中国短视频第一股”的快手在港交所上市。</p>\n<p>彼时，全球资本市场亦处于牛市，美国2021年仅上半年就推出了数万亿的救市计划，各国货币超发，资本市场上热钱变多，二级市场也是一种上扬的状态。资本对短视频赛道是更加狂热的追棒。</p>\n<p>快手上市一周后，快手股价最高摸到了417.8港元/股，总市值一度突破1.73万亿港元，超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、小米与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、阿里、美团与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，排在第五位。</p>\n<p><b>二级市场去泡沫</b></p>\n<p>快手在资本市场的滑铁卢是从快手一季度财报开始的。</p>\n<p>今年5月，快手发布的2021年第一季度财报显示，其总营收170.2亿元，同比增长36.6%，净亏损577.5亿元，经调整亏损49.18亿元，上一年同期为亏损43.45亿元。</p>\n<p>如果说亏损导致资本市场对快手变脸，只能是因素之一，但显然不是全部因素。因为快手上市前，递交的招股书显示：截至2020年11月30日止十一个月，快手的毛利为209亿元，毛利率为39.9%，快手的经营亏损为94亿元。</p>\n<p>因此，资本市场对快手的关注度肯定亏损只是原因之一。</p>\n<p>快手Q1财报显示：用户增长端，2021Q1快手DAU2.95亿，而2020年春节期间快手的DAU已是2.82亿。快手2021Q1营销费用高达116.6亿元，占快手总营收68.5%。</p>\n<p>快手这么多钱砸下去，用户增长见顶。从大环境来看，中国短视频市场的渗透率已经达到90%，2018~2021年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手用户重合度从10.3%攀升至60%。这意味着快手烧钱换增长的策略已经失效，且与抖音的差距再拉大。</p>\n<p>资本市场回归理性，具体反映都在快手的股价上。快手5月24日发布财报，仅仅一天，5月25日收盘时，股价以205.6港元/股收盘，大跌11.46%，创下了3个月以来最大的单日跌幅。此后，快手跌跌不休便拉开了序幕。</p>\n<p>高瓴加持的洗衣液第一股蓝月亮，自上市以来股价较发行价13港元跌幅也近50%，上市时市盈率高达70倍，按照发行价区间最高定价，透支了公司的成长性。</p>\n<p>更让投资人没有想到的是，今年上半年，蓝月亮业绩突然由盈转亏，预计亏损4400万港元，而上年同期为盈利3.02亿港元。</p>\n<p>仅仅上市半年，业绩就大变脸，加剧了资本市场对蓝月亮管理层的不信任，这也是蓝月亮近期股价暴跌的主要原因。</p>\n<p><b>“公司股价表现不好，离不开市场整体不佳的拖累，但主要影响因素还是上市时定价高和公司基本面业务不理想。”</b>一位香港外资对冲基金分析人士告诉《深网》。</p>\n<p>现实亦是如此。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶、水滴筹和每日优鲜，招股书都是“亏损状态”。</p>\n<p>在国际财务报告准则下，奈雪在2018年和2019年期间，净亏损分别为6973万元和3968万元，到了2020年，其净亏损同比扩大412%至2.033亿元。不过，奈雪最新一版更新的招股书则强调，“2020年经调整净利润（非国际财务报告准则计量）成功‘扭亏为盈’实现盈利1664万元”。</p>\n<p>水滴筹招股书显示，2018-2020年，其净亏损分别为2.09亿元、3.22亿元和6.64亿元。每日优鲜的招股书显示，2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜三年净亏损分别为22.16亿元 、27.77亿元、15.90亿元。</p>\n<p><b>一位二级市场的基金经理告诉《深网》，一些公司上市首日破发的主要原因是目前他们还没有向市场展现其盈利能力，主要是其主营业务还没带来利润。而新经济公司上市破发，首当其冲受伤害的是基石投资者。</b></p>\n<p>奈雪的茶上市当日基石投资者浮亏2097万美元。8月5日，快手解禁，基石投资者浮亏约17%。港股市场的基石投资者包括：主权财富基金、国际机构投资者、企业、私募机构、顶级富豪。</p>\n<p>一般来说，基石投资者在签订认购协议的时候并不知道公司的股票发行价格（港交所不允许基石投资者以低于发行价认购股份的），且有6个月的锁定期。因此，基石投资者是向二级市场传递信心的，其认可公司的发展潜力。</p>\n<p>2017年12月15日，港交所宣布了三十年来最重大改革——允许未盈利或者没有收入的生物科技公司上市。这一改革将使港交所接受同股不同权企业上市。改革后港交所，对科技企业和医疗企业都是拥抱态势。</p>\n<p>基石投资者对“新经济”公司也是欢迎的，但损失惨重。香港市场上最活跃的基石投资者之一、新加坡政府投资公司（GIC），曾经担任了众多新经济公司的基石投资人，对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>的投资浮亏50%，对雷蛇的投资浮亏80%。</p>\n<p>而小鹏香港上市的招股书中，已看不到基石投资者的身影了。</p>\n<p><b>一二级市场估值逻辑不同</b></p>\n<p>二级市场以破发的方式撇去了一级市场的估值泡沫，此外，一二级公司的估值逻辑不同，而这一切，都需要新经济公司用时间去证明，而在这个过程中，股价跌跌不休亦是常态。</p>\n<p>智通财经CEO张欢告诉《深网》，“如果说一级市场估值过高，虚火‘过剩’，在上市当日，港股无情的定价机制熄灭了这股‘虚火’，后续慢慢将回归价值。”而这一切唯有通过时间来证明。</p>\n<p>新经济代表公司小米在港股上市也曾遭遇过两年时间的跌跌不休。</p>\n<p>2018年小米7月9日上市首日开盘低开2.35%，截止收盘回到16.8港元的位置，低于发行价。按照17港元/股的发行价，小米的整体市值为 3700多亿港币，相当于约484.73亿美元，甚至低于550亿美元下限的估值。</p>\n<p>此前，小米的估值一直在大幅度下调，从最初媒体报道的千亿美金，到传闻中的800亿-750亿美元；再到下调为700亿-550亿美元。“小米到底值多少钱？”一直是市场争论的焦点。</p>\n<p>这取决于一级市场的估值逻辑，而从一级市场到二级市场，其衡量的因素又有所不同。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，小米公司F轮融资从2014年跨至2017年，一共进行了两轮。其中2014年12月23日签署首购股协议的F-1轮，认购价为20.168美元/股，对应市值为450亿美元，而2017年8月4日结束的F-2轮认购价为17.927美元/股，对应的估值约400亿美元。</p>\n<p>一级市场的估值逻辑是故事逻辑，从A轮进入的投资人和IPO之前进入的投资人，都是按照一个必须赚钱的估值来计算的。但小米F-2轮的认购已经是偏离这一逻辑了。</p>\n<p>紧接着，小米估值的故事就讲到了二级市场上，但依然争议很大，主要分歧点在于小米是家手机硬件公司还是家互联网公司。</p>\n<p>根据小米招股书披露，小米更像是一家硬件公司。小米2019年一季度的互联网服务营收为42亿元人民币，仅占总营收的9.7%，远低于智能手机和IoT产品业务所占比重。当硬件增长遭遇瓶颈时，“互联网收入”是硬件厂商发展的重要风向标。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c607b2298eb1b52a90baa97a6b39182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小米上市一年后：互联网收入占整体收入占比不高，但是互联网收入毛利占整体毛利近一半，小米也宣布，已经盈利。这一年小米累计回购次数已达22次。即便如此，小米的股价依然一路下跌。上市后两年时间，小米的股价一直在10港元上下徘徊。甚至，2019年9月2日，小米股价跌至8.28港元/股，较发行价腰斩。</p>\n<p>直到2020年7月10日，小米涨回了发行价，股票高点时达到34.4港元/股。</p>\n<p>而随着2021年小米手机市场占有率不断走高，小米又成了今年港股最抗跌的明星科技公司之一。</p>\n<p>而另一家新经济公司的代表美团的遭遇和小米大致相同。</p>\n<p>“好公司是不怕的，像美团就很典型，上市以后跌了三分之一，60块钱上市的，跌到了40块钱，但真正好的公司是会涨起来的，我觉得好公司还是需要靠时间来体现它的业绩的。”朱啸虎在接受《财约你》访问时表示。</p>\n<p>对于近几年上市的这些新经济公司来说，破发并不可怕，资本市场看不懂也不可怕，那些摒弃了财技包装、概念包装，不为圈钱，真正有好的业绩和商业模式支撑的公司，终归会回归最大价值。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>快手市值蒸发万亿背后：一二级市场估值倒挂</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n快手市值蒸发万亿背后：一二级市场估值倒挂\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1045161675\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/79fb4e017d55411483d940659131729e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深网腾讯新闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-06 10:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>港股集体大跌的背景下，快手无疑是跌幅最大的那个。</p>\n<p>“短视频第一股”快手从7月26日首次跌破发行价以来，股价持续下行，<b>8月5日收盘价为89.1港元/股，已经较最高点417.8港元/股跌去约78%，总市值从最高点1.738万亿港元跌至3706.7亿港元，蒸发近1.4万亿港元。</b></p>\n<p>而6月30日在港交所挂牌的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>，上市即破发，发行价19.8港元/股，当日收盘价17.12港元/股，跌幅达13.54%。随后便进入跌跌不停的状态，最新报价9.640港元/股。</p>\n<p>不仅仅是奈雪的茶，财联社的一份统计数据显示，2020年1月1日至2021年5月7日，共有23家中概股企业赴美上市，截至5月7日收盘，股价低过发行价的有18家，破发率高达78%。</p>\n<p>一位二级市场基金经理告诉《深网》，面粉比面包贵，一二级市场估值倒挂成为普遍现象。</p>\n<p><b>“所谓的估值倒挂，是一二级市场两种估值体系的对抗，二级市场无情的定价机制熄灭了一级市场的虚火”，</b>智通财经CEO张欢表示。</p>\n<p>国内某大型投资银行香港券商业务负责人告诉《深网》，一些新经济公司香港上市当日破发，一是国内新经济企业在一级市场的估值在二级市场不被认可，二是表明香港市场投资者对新经济企业的理解还需时日。</p>\n<p><b>一级市场虚火旺</b></p>\n<p>2015年底，奈雪的第一家门店落地深圳。今年2月11日，奈雪向港交所递交招股书，冲击“茶饮第一股”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89778ee077d4832d9977b1075c0d38c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>据公告，奈雪的茶招股价区间定为17.20-19.80港元，按照这个价格计算，奈雪的茶上市的市值将达到295-340亿港元。奈雪的茶上市前最后一轮的融资是去年12月，据彭博报道，该轮融资后奈雪估值达到20亿美元，约130亿元人民币。</p>\n<p>仅仅半年，奈雪的茶估值翻了一倍。奈雪的茶招股书显示，2017-2020年期间，奈雪共完成了5轮融资，投资方包括天图资本、SCGC资本、深创投、PAG太盟投资等。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶值300多亿吗？二级市场的机构投资者和基石投资者和一级市场的风险投资者是看好茶饮赛道的。根据灼识咨询数据，2020年中国茶市场规模约4107亿元，其中现制茶饮约1136亿元，渗透率不断提升。</p>\n<p>当然也有人觉得不值。据21世纪经济报道，有香港基金经理直言：“奈雪的茶估值偏贵，市值降到200多亿港元才比较合理。”</p>\n<p>上市当日，奈雪的茶破发。不仅仅是奈雪的茶，6月25日，“生鲜电商第一股”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>登陆纳斯达克，在上市当天开盘暴跌25%、盘中一度跌至40%后，每日优鲜还收获了“连跌三天”的现状。同样破发的还有4月赴美上市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>筹。</p>\n<p><b>“太多的钱从二级市场涌到了一级市场，一级市场抬高了估值，透支了独角兽公司可能未来一两年的业绩，因此很多公司可能上市就破发。”</b>金沙江创投合伙人朱啸虎对《财约你》分析指出。</p>\n<p>相对于“茶饮第一股”奈雪的茶的遭遇，快手的上市可谓是天时地利人和。</p>\n<p>快手2012年创立，2020年11月5日，融资9轮的快手终于向港交所提交了IPO申请。而快手的最近一轮融资发生在2019年12月份，融资金额接近30亿美元，公司估值达到了286亿美元。而快手上市前的估值介于556亿至609亿美元。</p>\n<p>一年时间，快手的估值也翻了一番。2月5日，被誉为“中国短视频第一股”的快手在港交所上市。</p>\n<p>彼时，全球资本市场亦处于牛市，美国2021年仅上半年就推出了数万亿的救市计划，各国货币超发，资本市场上热钱变多，二级市场也是一种上扬的状态。资本对短视频赛道是更加狂热的追棒。</p>\n<p>快手上市一周后，快手股价最高摸到了417.8港元/股，总市值一度突破1.73万亿港元，超过了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、小米与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>，仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、阿里、美团与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，排在第五位。</p>\n<p><b>二级市场去泡沫</b></p>\n<p>快手在资本市场的滑铁卢是从快手一季度财报开始的。</p>\n<p>今年5月，快手发布的2021年第一季度财报显示，其总营收170.2亿元，同比增长36.6%，净亏损577.5亿元，经调整亏损49.18亿元，上一年同期为亏损43.45亿元。</p>\n<p>如果说亏损导致资本市场对快手变脸，只能是因素之一，但显然不是全部因素。因为快手上市前，递交的招股书显示：截至2020年11月30日止十一个月，快手的毛利为209亿元，毛利率为39.9%，快手的经营亏损为94亿元。</p>\n<p>因此，资本市场对快手的关注度肯定亏损只是原因之一。</p>\n<p>快手Q1财报显示：用户增长端，2021Q1快手DAU2.95亿，而2020年春节期间快手的DAU已是2.82亿。快手2021Q1营销费用高达116.6亿元，占快手总营收68.5%。</p>\n<p>快手这么多钱砸下去，用户增长见顶。从大环境来看，中国短视频市场的渗透率已经达到90%，2018~2021年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手用户重合度从10.3%攀升至60%。这意味着快手烧钱换增长的策略已经失效，且与抖音的差距再拉大。</p>\n<p>资本市场回归理性，具体反映都在快手的股价上。快手5月24日发布财报，仅仅一天，5月25日收盘时，股价以205.6港元/股收盘，大跌11.46%，创下了3个月以来最大的单日跌幅。此后，快手跌跌不休便拉开了序幕。</p>\n<p>高瓴加持的洗衣液第一股蓝月亮，自上市以来股价较发行价13港元跌幅也近50%，上市时市盈率高达70倍，按照发行价区间最高定价，透支了公司的成长性。</p>\n<p>更让投资人没有想到的是，今年上半年，蓝月亮业绩突然由盈转亏，预计亏损4400万港元，而上年同期为盈利3.02亿港元。</p>\n<p>仅仅上市半年，业绩就大变脸，加剧了资本市场对蓝月亮管理层的不信任，这也是蓝月亮近期股价暴跌的主要原因。</p>\n<p><b>“公司股价表现不好，离不开市场整体不佳的拖累，但主要影响因素还是上市时定价高和公司基本面业务不理想。”</b>一位香港外资对冲基金分析人士告诉《深网》。</p>\n<p>现实亦是如此。</p>\n<p>奈雪的茶、水滴筹和每日优鲜，招股书都是“亏损状态”。</p>\n<p>在国际财务报告准则下，奈雪在2018年和2019年期间，净亏损分别为6973万元和3968万元，到了2020年，其净亏损同比扩大412%至2.033亿元。不过，奈雪最新一版更新的招股书则强调，“2020年经调整净利润（非国际财务报告准则计量）成功‘扭亏为盈’实现盈利1664万元”。</p>\n<p>水滴筹招股书显示，2018-2020年，其净亏损分别为2.09亿元、3.22亿元和6.64亿元。每日优鲜的招股书显示，2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜三年净亏损分别为22.16亿元 、27.77亿元、15.90亿元。</p>\n<p><b>一位二级市场的基金经理告诉《深网》，一些公司上市首日破发的主要原因是目前他们还没有向市场展现其盈利能力，主要是其主营业务还没带来利润。而新经济公司上市破发，首当其冲受伤害的是基石投资者。</b></p>\n<p>奈雪的茶上市当日基石投资者浮亏2097万美元。8月5日，快手解禁，基石投资者浮亏约17%。港股市场的基石投资者包括：主权财富基金、国际机构投资者、企业、私募机构、顶级富豪。</p>\n<p>一般来说，基石投资者在签订认购协议的时候并不知道公司的股票发行价格（港交所不允许基石投资者以低于发行价认购股份的），且有6个月的锁定期。因此，基石投资者是向二级市场传递信心的，其认可公司的发展潜力。</p>\n<p>2017年12月15日，港交所宣布了三十年来最重大改革——允许未盈利或者没有收入的生物科技公司上市。这一改革将使港交所接受同股不同权企业上市。改革后港交所，对科技企业和医疗企业都是拥抱态势。</p>\n<p>基石投资者对“新经济”公司也是欢迎的，但损失惨重。香港市场上最活跃的基石投资者之一、新加坡政府投资公司（GIC），曾经担任了众多新经济公司的基石投资人，对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01833\">平安好医生</a>的投资浮亏50%，对雷蛇的投资浮亏80%。</p>\n<p>而小鹏香港上市的招股书中，已看不到基石投资者的身影了。</p>\n<p><b>一二级市场估值逻辑不同</b></p>\n<p>二级市场以破发的方式撇去了一级市场的估值泡沫，此外，一二级公司的估值逻辑不同，而这一切，都需要新经济公司用时间去证明，而在这个过程中，股价跌跌不休亦是常态。</p>\n<p>智通财经CEO张欢告诉《深网》，“如果说一级市场估值过高，虚火‘过剩’，在上市当日，港股无情的定价机制熄灭了这股‘虚火’，后续慢慢将回归价值。”而这一切唯有通过时间来证明。</p>\n<p>新经济代表公司小米在港股上市也曾遭遇过两年时间的跌跌不休。</p>\n<p>2018年小米7月9日上市首日开盘低开2.35%，截止收盘回到16.8港元的位置，低于发行价。按照17港元/股的发行价，小米的整体市值为 3700多亿港币，相当于约484.73亿美元，甚至低于550亿美元下限的估值。</p>\n<p>此前，小米的估值一直在大幅度下调，从最初媒体报道的千亿美金，到传闻中的800亿-750亿美元；再到下调为700亿-550亿美元。“小米到底值多少钱？”一直是市场争论的焦点。</p>\n<p>这取决于一级市场的估值逻辑，而从一级市场到二级市场，其衡量的因素又有所不同。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，小米公司F轮融资从2014年跨至2017年，一共进行了两轮。其中2014年12月23日签署首购股协议的F-1轮，认购价为20.168美元/股，对应市值为450亿美元，而2017年8月4日结束的F-2轮认购价为17.927美元/股，对应的估值约400亿美元。</p>\n<p>一级市场的估值逻辑是故事逻辑，从A轮进入的投资人和IPO之前进入的投资人，都是按照一个必须赚钱的估值来计算的。但小米F-2轮的认购已经是偏离这一逻辑了。</p>\n<p>紧接着，小米估值的故事就讲到了二级市场上，但依然争议很大，主要分歧点在于小米是家手机硬件公司还是家互联网公司。</p>\n<p>根据小米招股书披露，小米更像是一家硬件公司。小米2019年一季度的互联网服务营收为42亿元人民币，仅占总营收的9.7%，远低于智能手机和IoT产品业务所占比重。当硬件增长遭遇瓶颈时，“互联网收入”是硬件厂商发展的重要风向标。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c607b2298eb1b52a90baa97a6b39182\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>小米上市一年后：互联网收入占整体收入占比不高，但是互联网收入毛利占整体毛利近一半，小米也宣布，已经盈利。这一年小米累计回购次数已达22次。即便如此，小米的股价依然一路下跌。上市后两年时间，小米的股价一直在10港元上下徘徊。甚至，2019年9月2日，小米股价跌至8.28港元/股，较发行价腰斩。</p>\n<p>直到2020年7月10日，小米涨回了发行价，股票高点时达到34.4港元/股。</p>\n<p>而随着2021年小米手机市场占有率不断走高，小米又成了今年港股最抗跌的明星科技公司之一。</p>\n<p>而另一家新经济公司的代表美团的遭遇和小米大致相同。</p>\n<p>“好公司是不怕的，像美团就很典型，上市以后跌了三分之一，60块钱上市的，跌到了40块钱，但真正好的公司是会涨起来的，我觉得好公司还是需要靠时间来体现它的业绩的。”朱啸虎在接受《财约你》访问时表示。</p>\n<p>对于近几年上市的这些新经济公司来说，破发并不可怕，资本市场看不懂也不可怕，那些摒弃了财技包装、概念包装，不为圈钱，真正有好的业绩和商业模式支撑的公司，终归会回归最大价值。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3755fdda80ee4878d06bf1bcbfdbf496","relate_stocks":{"01024":"快手-W"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187518828","content_text":"港股集体大跌的背景下，快手无疑是跌幅最大的那个。\n“短视频第一股”快手从7月26日首次跌破发行价以来，股价持续下行，8月5日收盘价为89.1港元/股，已经较最高点417.8港元/股跌去约78%，总市值从最高点1.738万亿港元跌至3706.7亿港元，蒸发近1.4万亿港元。\n而6月30日在港交所挂牌的奈雪的茶，上市即破发，发行价19.8港元/股，当日收盘价17.12港元/股，跌幅达13.54%。随后便进入跌跌不停的状态，最新报价9.640港元/股。\n不仅仅是奈雪的茶，财联社的一份统计数据显示，2020年1月1日至2021年5月7日，共有23家中概股企业赴美上市，截至5月7日收盘，股价低过发行价的有18家，破发率高达78%。\n一位二级市场基金经理告诉《深网》，面粉比面包贵，一二级市场估值倒挂成为普遍现象。\n“所谓的估值倒挂，是一二级市场两种估值体系的对抗，二级市场无情的定价机制熄灭了一级市场的虚火”，智通财经CEO张欢表示。\n国内某大型投资银行香港券商业务负责人告诉《深网》，一些新经济公司香港上市当日破发，一是国内新经济企业在一级市场的估值在二级市场不被认可，二是表明香港市场投资者对新经济企业的理解还需时日。\n一级市场虚火旺\n2015年底，奈雪的第一家门店落地深圳。今年2月11日，奈雪向港交所递交招股书，冲击“茶饮第一股”。\n\n据公告，奈雪的茶招股价区间定为17.20-19.80港元，按照这个价格计算，奈雪的茶上市的市值将达到295-340亿港元。奈雪的茶上市前最后一轮的融资是去年12月，据彭博报道，该轮融资后奈雪估值达到20亿美元，约130亿元人民币。\n仅仅半年，奈雪的茶估值翻了一倍。奈雪的茶招股书显示，2017-2020年期间，奈雪共完成了5轮融资，投资方包括天图资本、SCGC资本、深创投、PAG太盟投资等。\n奈雪的茶值300多亿吗？二级市场的机构投资者和基石投资者和一级市场的风险投资者是看好茶饮赛道的。根据灼识咨询数据，2020年中国茶市场规模约4107亿元，其中现制茶饮约1136亿元，渗透率不断提升。\n当然也有人觉得不值。据21世纪经济报道，有香港基金经理直言：“奈雪的茶估值偏贵，市值降到200多亿港元才比较合理。”\n上市当日，奈雪的茶破发。不仅仅是奈雪的茶，6月25日，“生鲜电商第一股”每日优鲜登陆纳斯达克，在上市当天开盘暴跌25%、盘中一度跌至40%后，每日优鲜还收获了“连跌三天”的现状。同样破发的还有4月赴美上市的水滴筹。\n“太多的钱从二级市场涌到了一级市场，一级市场抬高了估值，透支了独角兽公司可能未来一两年的业绩，因此很多公司可能上市就破发。”金沙江创投合伙人朱啸虎对《财约你》分析指出。\n相对于“茶饮第一股”奈雪的茶的遭遇，快手的上市可谓是天时地利人和。\n快手2012年创立，2020年11月5日，融资9轮的快手终于向港交所提交了IPO申请。而快手的最近一轮融资发生在2019年12月份，融资金额接近30亿美元，公司估值达到了286亿美元。而快手上市前的估值介于556亿至609亿美元。\n一年时间，快手的估值也翻了一番。2月5日，被誉为“中国短视频第一股”的快手在港交所上市。\n彼时，全球资本市场亦处于牛市，美国2021年仅上半年就推出了数万亿的救市计划，各国货币超发，资本市场上热钱变多，二级市场也是一种上扬的状态。资本对短视频赛道是更加狂热的追棒。\n快手上市一周后，快手股价最高摸到了417.8港元/股，总市值一度突破1.73万亿港元，超过了京东、小米与百度，仅次于腾讯、阿里、美团与拼多多，排在第五位。\n二级市场去泡沫\n快手在资本市场的滑铁卢是从快手一季度财报开始的。\n今年5月，快手发布的2021年第一季度财报显示，其总营收170.2亿元，同比增长36.6%，净亏损577.5亿元，经调整亏损49.18亿元，上一年同期为亏损43.45亿元。\n如果说亏损导致资本市场对快手变脸，只能是因素之一，但显然不是全部因素。因为快手上市前，递交的招股书显示：截至2020年11月30日止十一个月，快手的毛利为209亿元，毛利率为39.9%，快手的经营亏损为94亿元。\n因此，资本市场对快手的关注度肯定亏损只是原因之一。\n快手Q1财报显示：用户增长端，2021Q1快手DAU2.95亿，而2020年春节期间快手的DAU已是2.82亿。快手2021Q1营销费用高达116.6亿元，占快手总营收68.5%。\n快手这么多钱砸下去，用户增长见顶。从大环境来看，中国短视频市场的渗透率已经达到90%，2018~2021年抖音、快手用户重合度从10.3%攀升至60%。这意味着快手烧钱换增长的策略已经失效，且与抖音的差距再拉大。\n资本市场回归理性，具体反映都在快手的股价上。快手5月24日发布财报，仅仅一天，5月25日收盘时，股价以205.6港元/股收盘，大跌11.46%，创下了3个月以来最大的单日跌幅。此后，快手跌跌不休便拉开了序幕。\n高瓴加持的洗衣液第一股蓝月亮，自上市以来股价较发行价13港元跌幅也近50%，上市时市盈率高达70倍，按照发行价区间最高定价，透支了公司的成长性。\n更让投资人没有想到的是，今年上半年，蓝月亮业绩突然由盈转亏，预计亏损4400万港元，而上年同期为盈利3.02亿港元。\n仅仅上市半年，业绩就大变脸，加剧了资本市场对蓝月亮管理层的不信任，这也是蓝月亮近期股价暴跌的主要原因。\n“公司股价表现不好，离不开市场整体不佳的拖累，但主要影响因素还是上市时定价高和公司基本面业务不理想。”一位香港外资对冲基金分析人士告诉《深网》。\n现实亦是如此。\n奈雪的茶、水滴筹和每日优鲜，招股书都是“亏损状态”。\n在国际财务报告准则下，奈雪在2018年和2019年期间，净亏损分别为6973万元和3968万元，到了2020年，其净亏损同比扩大412%至2.033亿元。不过，奈雪最新一版更新的招股书则强调，“2020年经调整净利润（非国际财务报告准则计量）成功‘扭亏为盈’实现盈利1664万元”。\n水滴筹招股书显示，2018-2020年，其净亏损分别为2.09亿元、3.22亿元和6.64亿元。每日优鲜的招股书显示，2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜三年净亏损分别为22.16亿元 、27.77亿元、15.90亿元。\n一位二级市场的基金经理告诉《深网》，一些公司上市首日破发的主要原因是目前他们还没有向市场展现其盈利能力，主要是其主营业务还没带来利润。而新经济公司上市破发，首当其冲受伤害的是基石投资者。\n奈雪的茶上市当日基石投资者浮亏2097万美元。8月5日，快手解禁，基石投资者浮亏约17%。港股市场的基石投资者包括：主权财富基金、国际机构投资者、企业、私募机构、顶级富豪。\n一般来说，基石投资者在签订认购协议的时候并不知道公司的股票发行价格（港交所不允许基石投资者以低于发行价认购股份的），且有6个月的锁定期。因此，基石投资者是向二级市场传递信心的，其认可公司的发展潜力。\n2017年12月15日，港交所宣布了三十年来最重大改革——允许未盈利或者没有收入的生物科技公司上市。这一改革将使港交所接受同股不同权企业上市。改革后港交所，对科技企业和医疗企业都是拥抱态势。\n基石投资者对“新经济”公司也是欢迎的，但损失惨重。香港市场上最活跃的基石投资者之一、新加坡政府投资公司（GIC），曾经担任了众多新经济公司的基石投资人，对平安好医生的投资浮亏50%，对雷蛇的投资浮亏80%。\n而小鹏香港上市的招股书中，已看不到基石投资者的身影了。\n一二级市场估值逻辑不同\n二级市场以破发的方式撇去了一级市场的估值泡沫，此外，一二级公司的估值逻辑不同，而这一切，都需要新经济公司用时间去证明，而在这个过程中，股价跌跌不休亦是常态。\n智通财经CEO张欢告诉《深网》，“如果说一级市场估值过高，虚火‘过剩’，在上市当日，港股无情的定价机制熄灭了这股‘虚火’，后续慢慢将回归价值。”而这一切唯有通过时间来证明。\n新经济代表公司小米在港股上市也曾遭遇过两年时间的跌跌不休。\n2018年小米7月9日上市首日开盘低开2.35%，截止收盘回到16.8港元的位置，低于发行价。按照17港元/股的发行价，小米的整体市值为 3700多亿港币，相当于约484.73亿美元，甚至低于550亿美元下限的估值。\n此前，小米的估值一直在大幅度下调，从最初媒体报道的千亿美金，到传闻中的800亿-750亿美元；再到下调为700亿-550亿美元。“小米到底值多少钱？”一直是市场争论的焦点。\n这取决于一级市场的估值逻辑，而从一级市场到二级市场，其衡量的因素又有所不同。\n招股书显示，小米公司F轮融资从2014年跨至2017年，一共进行了两轮。其中2014年12月23日签署首购股协议的F-1轮，认购价为20.168美元/股，对应市值为450亿美元，而2017年8月4日结束的F-2轮认购价为17.927美元/股，对应的估值约400亿美元。\n一级市场的估值逻辑是故事逻辑，从A轮进入的投资人和IPO之前进入的投资人，都是按照一个必须赚钱的估值来计算的。但小米F-2轮的认购已经是偏离这一逻辑了。\n紧接着，小米估值的故事就讲到了二级市场上，但依然争议很大，主要分歧点在于小米是家手机硬件公司还是家互联网公司。\n根据小米招股书披露，小米更像是一家硬件公司。小米2019年一季度的互联网服务营收为42亿元人民币，仅占总营收的9.7%，远低于智能手机和IoT产品业务所占比重。当硬件增长遭遇瓶颈时，“互联网收入”是硬件厂商发展的重要风向标。\n\n小米上市一年后：互联网收入占整体收入占比不高，但是互联网收入毛利占整体毛利近一半，小米也宣布，已经盈利。这一年小米累计回购次数已达22次。即便如此，小米的股价依然一路下跌。上市后两年时间，小米的股价一直在10港元上下徘徊。甚至，2019年9月2日，小米股价跌至8.28港元/股，较发行价腰斩。\n直到2020年7月10日，小米涨回了发行价，股票高点时达到34.4港元/股。\n而随着2021年小米手机市场占有率不断走高，小米又成了今年港股最抗跌的明星科技公司之一。\n而另一家新经济公司的代表美团的遭遇和小米大致相同。\n“好公司是不怕的，像美团就很典型，上市以后跌了三分之一，60块钱上市的，跌到了40块钱，但真正好的公司是会涨起来的，我觉得好公司还是需要靠时间来体现它的业绩的。”朱啸虎在接受《财约你》访问时表示。\n对于近几年上市的这些新经济公司来说，破发并不可怕，资本市场看不懂也不可怕，那些摒弃了财技包装、概念包装，不为圈钱，真正有好的业绩和商业模式支撑的公司，终归会回归最大价值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":804554111,"gmtCreate":1627967330933,"gmtModify":1627967330933,"author":{"id":"3505868837774428","authorId":"3505868837774428","name":"没有钱吃饭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/333401cdbdcf6eb01f6400488b4c50f7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3505868837774428","authorIdStr":"3505868837774428"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this 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