frank01的个人主页 - 老虎社区

frank01

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2019-10-19

$蔚来(NIO)$ 了解蔚来的人才知道，蔚来是少数几家注重产品技术研发，注重创新发展的企业，也是将来可以跟国际企业竞争的企业，这次危机如果能够度过，必将成为世界最伟大公司之一！如果就此失败，再一次说明中国经营环境跟米国还是有太大差距，中国不适合创新性，不适合高科技企业的发展，相反中国是一个适合贸易，简单加工，制造的地方。中国汽车工业又一次被外资打败，在关键时刻引进特斯拉这个鲨鱼，看似廉价的汽车，其实是最低级的技术，最终会彻底打败民族产业，某些领导必将成为历史的罪人！

2021-03-22

$蔚来(NIO)$谁知道3月销量？8000+？

2021-02-10

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$总算没有辜负最近的坚持

2023-07-01

北上广这些大城市肯定是蔚来多，蔚来是大城市辐射农村，理想主要占领成千上万的三四五线城市，农村包围城市

理想汽车6月交付32575辆，首次破三万

2021-06-03

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$大家看AMC的走势，不要乱T，拿好手中股票，冲到50指日可待！

2022-02-25

$蔚来(NIO)$理想都发财报了，你啥时候发财报啊！

2022-01-06

是可充可换可升级，并不是只能换电，不能充电！

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 换手率高也有可能主力在左手倒右手，抬股价

2021-06-03

$阿什福德酒店管理信托公司(AHT)$大家看下AMC走势，拿好手中股票，50指日可待！

2022-10-02

真垃圾，一堆车，才卖这么点，股价还要往下跌

蔚来9月交付新车10878台，三季度交付量创季度新高

2022-07-31

哎，每次都有理由[龇牙]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-11

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$今天巨量，必定有天价！每次下跌都是加仓的好机会！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月1日，理想汽车公布2023年6月交付数据。2023年6月，理想汽车共计交付新车32575辆，月度交付量首次突破三万，同比增长150.1%。今年第二季度，理想汽车累计交付量达到86533辆，同比增长201.6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3627aef990fefa58959f4129fdd0be6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2337\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191739604","content_text":"7月1日，理想汽车公布2023年6月交付数据。2023年6月，理想汽车共计交付新车32575辆，月度交付量首次突破三万，同比增长150.1%。今年第二季度，理想汽车累计交付量达到86533辆，同比增长201.6%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3518983480179242","authorId":"3518983480179242","name":"fincc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/752def79475c77ddbeaceabf192b8c5d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518983480179242","authorIdStr":"3518983480179242"},"content":"理想平均售价比蔚来高","text":"理想平均售价比蔚来高","html":"理想平均售价比蔚来高"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":668664086,"gmtCreate":1664670870045,"gmtModify":1664677719925,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500030355734515","authorIdStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真垃圾，一堆车，才卖这么点，股价还要往下跌","listText":"真垃圾，一堆车，才卖这么点，股价还要往下跌","text":"真垃圾，一堆车，才卖这么点，股价还要往下跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668664086","repostId":"1169560275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169560275","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664613655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169560275?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-01 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来9月交付新车10878台，三季度交付量创季度新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-01 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月1日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>公布2022年9月交付量，共交付新车10,878台。2022年第三季度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>交付新车31,607台，同比增长29.3%，创历史新高。2022年1-9月，蔚来交付新车82,434台，同比增长24.2%。蔚来新车累计已交付249,504台。 </p><p>智能电动轿跑蔚来ET5已于9月30日开启交付，这是2022年蔚来交付的第三款NT2平台新车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632199aa7cc90c17e4b647891889250a\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"2436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36b37eb8e9efe8641c7be55a7da26d","relate_stocks":{"BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169560275","content_text":"10月1日，蔚来公布2022年9月交付量，共交付新车10,878台。2022年第三季度蔚来交付新车31,607台，同比增长29.3%，创历史新高。2022年1-9月，蔚来交付新车82,434台，同比增长24.2%。蔚来新车累计已交付249,504台。 智能电动轿跑蔚来ET5已于9月30日开启交付，这是2022年蔚来交付的第三款NT2平台新车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":682762068,"gmtCreate":1659265319458,"gmtModify":1659265319458,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500030355734515","authorIdStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哎，每次都有理由[龇牙]&nbsp;","listText":"哎，每次都有理由[龇牙]&nbsp;","text":"哎，每次都有理由[龇牙]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682762068","repostId":"2255837574","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636614084,"gmtCreate":1645792617224,"gmtModify":1645792617224,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500030355734515","authorIdStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>理想都发财报了，你啥时候发财报啊！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>理想都发财报了，你啥时候发财报啊！","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$理想都发财报了，你啥时候发财报啊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636614084","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695289877,"gmtCreate":1641472821917,"gmtModify":1641472821917,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500030355734515","authorIdStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是可充可换可升级，并不是只能换电，不能充电！","listText":"是可充可换可升级，并不是只能换电，不能充电！","text":"是可充可换可升级，并不是只能换电，不能充电！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695289877","repostId":"2201256345","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2201256345","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为上市公司提供知识产权解决方案","home_visible":1,"media_name":"锦缎","id":"1075158368","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a"},"pubTimestamp":1641436297,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2201256345?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-06 10:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2201256345","media":"锦缎","summary":"想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。</b>所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来正在陷入换电悖论循环\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1075158368\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6edd4ef1e1f428dad9cb66d3735ea2a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">锦缎 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-06 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>先上一张图</p><p>基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb5b7dc7825436ab886303f5ef0d45e\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"536\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。</p><p>很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。</p><p>关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。</p><p>基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。</p><p>为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。</p><p>这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。</p><p>事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。</p><p>整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/782b680ac63a4b2fb88fdd1a4a3b6245\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfac8fee0134ff6b896266d27754818\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"492\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。</p><p><b>这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。</b>所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。</p><p>事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。</p><p>因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。</p><p>再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。</p><p>回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。</p><p>原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。</p><p><b>这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。</b></p><p>实际上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。</p><p>蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。</p><p>乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。</p><p>还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66bf606d024c4da3900d40ecb4dc2c50","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2201256345","content_text":"先上一张图基本上这张图把换电模式和充电模式，做了个对比分析。仔细看完这张图后，我认为最重要的其实只有两点：补电时长，和产品标准。其它问题都可以从成本的角度去做一些动态分析。关于补电时长。想说的是，超高压快充很快就要面世了，2022年就会有大规模落地车型了，比如小鹏的G9，以及理想正在研发的纯电车型等。小鹏G9充电功率可达480KW，号称充电5分钟，续航200KM。考虑到部分家庭可能会配备慢充枪，以及停车场、商超等物业会逐步配备充电桩，这样的充电效率，其实是能满足需求的。很显然，充电是一条没有太多逻辑悖论的路线，简单明了。剩下的就是技术攻关、量产和投放密度的问题了。关于换电站，很多人都认为，蔚来当前补能体验好，所以应该坚持投入换电。我想说的是，在讨论之前，我们应该明确一个共识：显然当前电动汽车还处于行业初期阶段，技术发展非常迅猛，远没有到定型和标准化的阶段。基于这个认知前提，讨论起来就会容易很多。为什么不看好换电？先来搞清楚几个问题，答案就自然了然了。这一轮电动汽车革命，主要是两大块，一是电气化，二是智能化。大家都大谈特谈智能化才是未来电动汽车的竞争命门，能意识到这一点，说明都很有远见。事实上，电动汽车革命，从用户感知的角度来看，分为两大块，一部分是可感知的，另一部分是不可感知的。电动汽车安静、加速响应快、智能化突出，这些都是容易被大家轻易被大家感知到的部分。而在这之下，其实隐藏着深厚的整车架构变革，是为不可感知的部分。整车架构变革，到底有哪些呢？简单的来说就是，汽油车都有硕大的发动机，连着机械传动轴、排气管这些机械结构，直接决定了汽车底盘的基本布局。其他的零部件只能在这个基本结构的基础上进行布局设计。而电动汽车呢？则完全不一样。它没有发动机，没有传动轴，没有排气管。取而代之的是电机、电池。而且因为电池一般是板式结构，所以整车质量可以做到50:50，这给了电动汽车极大的结构设计空间。这么说可能没太多概念，我举几个例子你就明白了。比如电车没有发动机，所以它前盖可以设计出一个防撞梁，或者因为结构件少，整车车身可以做的更加的一体化设计，从而增强整车刚性；再比如它相比油车，各种管、轴变少了很多，取而代之的是很多的电线——有意思的事情就来了，这些电线，理论上是可以通过合理的布局设计，做到集成化的，像集成电路板一样。这里提取两个关键词：一体化，和集成化。所谓一体化，就是让整车的零部件化整为零，好处就是可以极大的降低供应链复杂度，提升整车的结构刚性和安全性；所谓集成化，就是电子工业百年里，各种电子架构越来越浓缩化、芯片化，并在某种意义上遵从摩尔定律。事实上，以基本常识和高中物理知识就能知道，一体化的空间是有限的，而集成化的空间短期是看不到上限的，类似于摩尔定律。试想一下，50年代的计算机，个头如一栋房子般，而今天的计算机，可以浓缩到手掌心大小，而其处理能力超出50年代的计算机无数倍。因此我们可以畅想，10～20年后，车身结构逐步稳定下来，而电子电气架构则不断浓缩和集成化。很多现在看起来个头都比较大的一些控制器，将来都有可能进一步缩小体积，从而可以比较容易的设计进车架中——这就是资本圈子热捧的滑板式底盘结构。再来看电池。电池也是一种较为复杂的电化学结构件。随着电化学、储能技术的提升，未来电池容量、电池包体积还会进一步缩小缩到一定程度之后，还可以与底盘一体化成型，实际上零跑汽车就在研发这样的底盘（CBC底盘），好处是集成度高、结构紧凑，同时还能增加车身刚性和安全性。回过头来再看换电。常识告诉我们，换电必须建立在电池的标准化基础之上的，否则换电就无从谈起，也根本没法推广。这里的电池标准化，一定得拆开来看，一是机械结构的标准化，二是电化学技术的标准化。你会发现，实际上随着电动汽车技术的快速发展，电化学技术早已建立了若干标准，而电池包的尺寸结构却是没有办法在中短期内标准化的。原因很简单，谁不想拥有集成度更高的车身结构呢，谁不想在电气化的路上走得更越远呢？那既然没有办法做到尺寸结构的标准化，又怎能兼容层出不穷的新车型呢，更别说兼容其它车厂的各类车型。这注定是一个很难规模化的事情，无法规模化，成本就无法降下来，蔚来于是将进入一个悖论循环。实际上，特斯拉就是一体化、集成化的代表。特斯拉之所以毛利率高，其实主要还是依赖于对其车辆结构的重新设计。这部分用户基本无法感知，体现到车企身上，是供应链的变迁、毛利率的攀升，也是我们投资者常说的，特斯拉在制造效率上的厉害之处。蔚来选的换电这条路线，表面上看是抄了近道，实际上是与时代的潮流背道而驰。因为换电的设计，未来底盘就无法做到CBC电池车身一体化，也必须让底盘结构设计让位于换电接口设计，进一步可以推测出，因为换电结构设计，蔚来不得不放弃很多效率优先的设计方案。乔布斯那句说说得好，用户永远不清晰的知道自己需要什么，只要当你把完美的产品放到他眼前时，他才会惊叹说，哇，这就是我想要的。蔚来可能只是迎合了一部分用户的显性需求，显然，他们也走了一条最容易、最不费脑力思考的道路。至于国家电网、中石油、宁德时代等，为什么愿意与蔚来一起推换电模式呢？我想说的是，这是从不同侧面的利益出发，做出的时下最理性的选择。国家推动换电模式落地，也有资源利用、多样化探索、国际竞争方面的考量。日本政府和丰田多年来还一直在力推氢能源汽车呢，截止到目前，也没有成为市场主流。还是那句话，当站在时代的风口时，要搞清楚核心的游戏规则是什么，不然就完全成了陪跑，最终也只是昙花一现或者泯然众人矣。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111361083,"gmtCreate":1622653105342,"gmtModify":1622653105342,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500030355734515","authorIdStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Inc.(SNDL)$</a>总算没有辜负最近的坚持","text":"$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$总算没有辜负最近的坚持","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c49fb4caff5235691fc97f0d83ded1f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381818962","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193233908457720,"gmtCreate":1688209464238,"gmtModify":1688209465949,"author":{"id":"3500030355734515","authorId":"3500030355734515","name":"frank01","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500030355734515","idStr":"3500030355734515"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"北上广这些大城市肯定是蔚来多，蔚来是大城市辐射农村，理想主要占领成千上万的三四五线城市，农村包围城市","listText":"北上广这些大城市肯定是蔚来多，蔚来是大城市辐射农村，理想主要占领成千上万的三四五线城市，农村包围城市","text":"北上广这些大城市肯定是蔚来多，蔚来是大城市辐射农村，理想主要占领成千上万的三四五线城市，农村包围城市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193233908457720","repostId":"1191739604","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191739604","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1688180033,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191739604?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-01 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10:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月1日，理想汽车公布2023年6月交付数据。2023年6月，理想汽车共计交付新车32575辆，月度交付量首次突破三万，同比增长150.1%。今年第二季度，理想汽车累计交付量达到86533辆，同比增长201.6%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3627aef990fefa58959f4129fdd0be6\" tg-width=\"1080\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-01 16:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月1日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>公布2022年9月交付量，共交付新车10,878台。2022年第三季度<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>交付新车31,607台，同比增长29.3%，创历史新高。2022年1-9月，蔚来交付新车82,434台，同比增长24.2%。蔚来新车累计已交付249,504台。 </p><p>智能电动轿跑蔚来ET5已于9月30日开启交付，这是2022年蔚来交付的第三款NT2平台新车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632199aa7cc90c17e4b647891889250a\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"2436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36b37eb8e9efe8641c7be55a7da26d","relate_stocks":{"BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","NIO.SI":"蔚来","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","NIO":"蔚来","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4555":"新能源车","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169560275","content_text":"10月1日，蔚来公布2022年9月交付量，共交付新车10,878台。2022年第三季度蔚来交付新车31,607台，同比增长29.3%，创历史新高。2022年1-9月，蔚来交付新车82,434台，同比增长24.2%。蔚来新车累计已交付249,504台。 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